So the semifinals are set for tomorrow, and three of the four participants were good bets from day one. Nadal, Djokovic, and Andy Murray all have performed up to expectations, so far. And Dr. Ivo Karlovic reaches his first Masters Series semifinal! Not too shabby from the 6'10" Karlovic. On his way, he paved the road for Nadal to take up the number one spot from Federer, some time in the coming weeks.
A few words on the passing of the torch, which has always been inevitable in a practical sense, but has now become a mathematical assurance. Even if Nadal wilts against Djokovic tomorrow, he will still be number one in the world before the US Open. I have been saying for a long time that I was not thrilled with Federer's dominance. While the beauty of his game has been unparalleled for the past four years, it was tough to be a fan when you knew the outcome of every major tournament.
But I am not cheering to see him slump, this way. Federer was an emotional player in his youth, but he was so good these past four years that he didn't really have anything to be upset about. It's been hard to watch him fall this hard, the veneer of his impenetrability crumbling away, piece by piece. But even more than that, I'm afraid that we're just trading one completely dominant player for another.
If Nadal wins these next two matches, then it's going to be tough for me to pick anyone else to win either the Olympics of the US Open. And I have to admit, I find that prospect ... rather boring. Trading one incredibly dominant player on the tour for another is not really an improvement, in my book. I just ask for parity; I ask for more than two people to win Grand Slams in a given year. If Nadal wins the U.S. Open, that will mean that someone won three out of four of the grand slam tournaments for four of the last five years. The only other time that has even happened in the open era was when Mats Wilander did it in 1988. What does that say about parity?
For the sake of the next few years of tennis, I hope that either Nadal, Djokovic, or Karlovic can beat Nadal. I would like to believe that the next four years of tennis are going to be more interesting and varied than the last four years. But only time will tell.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Mid-week summary for Cincinnati
It is getting difficult to be a Roddick fan, these days. After his great run to the semis in Rome was brought to a close by a tweaked shoulder, he hasn't won two matches in a row. Yes, he made the semis in Queens, but that was thanks to a retirement and a walkover. Now he pulls out against Kohlschreiber with injury/illness. I obviously don't hold it against him; there's nothing to be done in those situations. It just shows how amazing it was for Federer to go so long without significant injuries or illnesses affecting his play.
Speaking of the almighty Federus, he wasn't looking too mighty when he was down a set and 6-5, with American Robbie Ginepri serving for the match. He came very close to losing three matches in a row for perhaps the first time in a decade. Good for Robbie for playing so well for as long as he did, but he basically retired after that second-set tiebreak, and didn't even play in that third set.
Retirements and withdrawals have been the most interest parts of the tourney, so far. Ancic, Wawrinka, Kiefer, and Roddick all withdrew before their matches, while Llodra retired down 1-0 in the third set against Gasquet. It's only the third week of the hard court season. The players can't really be that worn down already, can they?
When tennis has been played, there have been some good matches. Stepanek lost to Andreev in three tiebreaks yesterday, for his first win over the wiley Czech. Sam Querrey got a big win over Paul-henri Mathieu, firing 20 aces in three sets. That's the Sam I like to see! Haas beat Youzhny, Moya beat Tipsarevic, and Tursunov beat Safin. All three were good matches, but it was disappointing to see Safin so undone by foot-fault calls. It is interesting to see how similar Marat and Dmitri's games are. They were both just hitting through the other guy as much as possible.
Looking ahead, how will Federer fare against Karlovic when he nearly flubbed it against Ginepri? There are some great matches set to play today, including (but not limited to): Blake v. Simon (Blake needs to win, but there's no guarantee that he will), Querrey v. Murray (Andy should return better than Sam can serve), Haas v. Monfils (this could go either way, but I lean towards the erratic Monfils), Gasquet v. Tursunov, and Davydenko v. Moya. That one in particular should be a baseline rally grind-fest that will end after midnight.
Djokovic, Nadal, and Ferrer should all win pretty handily. Hopefully, the focus today will be on the tennis being played, rather than the tennis not being played.
Speaking of the almighty Federus, he wasn't looking too mighty when he was down a set and 6-5, with American Robbie Ginepri serving for the match. He came very close to losing three matches in a row for perhaps the first time in a decade. Good for Robbie for playing so well for as long as he did, but he basically retired after that second-set tiebreak, and didn't even play in that third set.
Retirements and withdrawals have been the most interest parts of the tourney, so far. Ancic, Wawrinka, Kiefer, and Roddick all withdrew before their matches, while Llodra retired down 1-0 in the third set against Gasquet. It's only the third week of the hard court season. The players can't really be that worn down already, can they?
When tennis has been played, there have been some good matches. Stepanek lost to Andreev in three tiebreaks yesterday, for his first win over the wiley Czech. Sam Querrey got a big win over Paul-henri Mathieu, firing 20 aces in three sets. That's the Sam I like to see! Haas beat Youzhny, Moya beat Tipsarevic, and Tursunov beat Safin. All three were good matches, but it was disappointing to see Safin so undone by foot-fault calls. It is interesting to see how similar Marat and Dmitri's games are. They were both just hitting through the other guy as much as possible.
Looking ahead, how will Federer fare against Karlovic when he nearly flubbed it against Ginepri? There are some great matches set to play today, including (but not limited to): Blake v. Simon (Blake needs to win, but there's no guarantee that he will), Querrey v. Murray (Andy should return better than Sam can serve), Haas v. Monfils (this could go either way, but I lean towards the erratic Monfils), Gasquet v. Tursunov, and Davydenko v. Moya. That one in particular should be a baseline rally grind-fest that will end after midnight.
Djokovic, Nadal, and Ferrer should all win pretty handily. Hopefully, the focus today will be on the tennis being played, rather than the tennis not being played.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Wrap-up for Toronto, looking ahead to Cincinnati
Let me just flash back to eight hours ago: "I'm calling today's final for Rafa, something like 6-3, 6-2." Every once in a while, I get it right. Nadal wins! He just looks unstoppable, and we're heading into Cincy, the only Master Series event in which Nadal has never made it past the quarterfinals. Can he break his streak?
Before I look to the next week, just a few more things about this week. The Bryan brothers have continued their terrible record in finals this season, losing in a champions tie-break to Nestor and Zimonjic. And Safina did beat Pennetta, but it wasn't much closer than the Nadal-Kiefer match: 6-4, 6-2.
As for the Cincinnati draw, let's start with a look at the big picture:
Kiefer and Simon face off again in the first, in a rematch of Saturday's semifinal! I give the edge to Simon this time, since he's had a day off, at least. And then the winner goes on to face Blake, who was clobbered by Kiefer earlier this week. James really needs to get past that match to start getting some traction this hardcourt season.
Federer and Roddick are in the same quarter again, but with the way they're playing, it would be a surprise if they both made it that far. Federer may have to get through Ancic and Karlovic, while Andy has to beat Kohlschreiber (who beat him in five tough sets at the AO this year). At least Andy couldn't have asked for a better seeded opponent in his eighth of the draw; Roddick is 8-0 against tommy Robredo. But Cilic, Tipsarevic, and Davydenko all have had their maiden wins over Roddick this season, so who knows?
Of course, the big question for the week is "Who can stop Nadal?" the Mighty Mallorcan should steamroll his second round opponent, while if Youzhny can beat Haas and Monfils, that might be an interesting match-up. Nadal only leads the H2H with Mikhail by 7-4. His quarterfinal opponent could be Ferrer, but David has not started to show the pristine form he demonstrated during last year's HC season. I really don't see anyone beating Nadal until the semis or the final, if anyone's going to do it. Of course, he's got to get tired eventually, and he might lose to someone unexpected if that happens. I'll certainly keep an eye on it.
There are quite a few first-round matches to watch, beyond Simon-Kiefer. The teenaged Ernests Gulbis and the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen could present some fireworks. And while they're both very up-and-down players, I'd love to see Tipsarevic-Moya if they're both on their games. Safin-Tursunov could be a fun one, as well.
It is possible that in one week, Nadal will have overtaken Federer in the rankings and the mighty Federus will have dropped to number 2 for the first time since February of 2004. That was four and a half years ago. A momentous occasion, if it falls out that way.
Before I look to the next week, just a few more things about this week. The Bryan brothers have continued their terrible record in finals this season, losing in a champions tie-break to Nestor and Zimonjic. And Safina did beat Pennetta, but it wasn't much closer than the Nadal-Kiefer match: 6-4, 6-2.
As for the Cincinnati draw, let's start with a look at the big picture:
Kiefer and Simon face off again in the first, in a rematch of Saturday's semifinal! I give the edge to Simon this time, since he's had a day off, at least. And then the winner goes on to face Blake, who was clobbered by Kiefer earlier this week. James really needs to get past that match to start getting some traction this hardcourt season.
Federer and Roddick are in the same quarter again, but with the way they're playing, it would be a surprise if they both made it that far. Federer may have to get through Ancic and Karlovic, while Andy has to beat Kohlschreiber (who beat him in five tough sets at the AO this year). At least Andy couldn't have asked for a better seeded opponent in his eighth of the draw; Roddick is 8-0 against tommy Robredo. But Cilic, Tipsarevic, and Davydenko all have had their maiden wins over Roddick this season, so who knows?
Of course, the big question for the week is "Who can stop Nadal?" the Mighty Mallorcan should steamroll his second round opponent, while if Youzhny can beat Haas and Monfils, that might be an interesting match-up. Nadal only leads the H2H with Mikhail by 7-4. His quarterfinal opponent could be Ferrer, but David has not started to show the pristine form he demonstrated during last year's HC season. I really don't see anyone beating Nadal until the semis or the final, if anyone's going to do it. Of course, he's got to get tired eventually, and he might lose to someone unexpected if that happens. I'll certainly keep an eye on it.
There are quite a few first-round matches to watch, beyond Simon-Kiefer. The teenaged Ernests Gulbis and the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen could present some fireworks. And while they're both very up-and-down players, I'd love to see Tipsarevic-Moya if they're both on their games. Safin-Tursunov could be a fun one, as well.
It is possible that in one week, Nadal will have overtaken Federer in the rankings and the mighty Federus will have dropped to number 2 for the first time since February of 2004. That was four and a half years ago. A momentous occasion, if it falls out that way.
Finals day at the Rogers Masters Cup
Well, that may not have been the prettiest day of semifinals that I've ever seen, but it certainly was exciting.
Kiefer and Simon played the longest match of the tournament, and it really could have gone either way! But in the end, Kiefer's experience and Simon's exhaustion just made it too much for the young Frenchman. This wasn't an especially pretty match, as Simon wasn't hitting nearly as many beautiful backhand winners as he was against Federer, and Kiefer seemed to only play well from behind. Whenever he went up a break, the errors started again. Good for Kiefer, though - he made it to his first career Masters Series final after three previous trips to the semifinals, two of which took place at this very tournament! I attribute his success to his recent haircut, which is really a much better look for him, I must say. The folks at Tennis Served Fresh may disagree, but I like it!
The other semi lived up to its hype, for the most part. Murray gave Nadal his toughest run since their first meeting at the Australian Open, but Nadal was just too tough. The type of game that Murray was forced to play to stay in contention was so difficult to keep up, and eventually the errors did him in. What was up with Murray and Cedric Mourier arguing about the trainer at 6-5 in the first set? If you're Murray in that situation, you either need to insist on seeing the trainer, or you need to forget about it. It really bothered him in that tie break, and who knows what would have happened if he had managed to pull that one out? He didn't wilt like Gasquet in the second, so it could have made a huge difference.
But it didn't, and Nadal won. He hasn't been to the final of the Canada Masters since 2005, where he beat a 35-year old Andre Agassi. He won that in three, but he should have an easier time against 31-year old Kiefer. At this point, it's very difficult to see Rafa not continuing to dominate the hard court season like he did on clay. It may not have happened in years past, but he wasn't playing this well before. We may have traded one hegemonic tennis power for another! I'm calling today's final for Rafa, something like 6-3, 6-2.
Also worth noting: Bob and Mike Bryan are playing Nestor and Zimonjic, who just won Wimbledon. And it's actually being broadcast on www.atpmastersseries.tv! The first doubles match at the tournament that I'm going to get to watch. It should be exciting. Bob and Mike have had a lousy season by their standards, so maybe they can help redeem it with a win over the white-hot Nestor and Zimonjic.
And poor Jelena Jankovic! She had a chance to take the number one spot (again!) but she lost in the semis to Dinara Safina. I take Safina over Pennetta in the final, but that's another pretty exciting one. Should be closer than Nadal-Kiefer.
Kiefer and Simon played the longest match of the tournament, and it really could have gone either way! But in the end, Kiefer's experience and Simon's exhaustion just made it too much for the young Frenchman. This wasn't an especially pretty match, as Simon wasn't hitting nearly as many beautiful backhand winners as he was against Federer, and Kiefer seemed to only play well from behind. Whenever he went up a break, the errors started again. Good for Kiefer, though - he made it to his first career Masters Series final after three previous trips to the semifinals, two of which took place at this very tournament! I attribute his success to his recent haircut, which is really a much better look for him, I must say. The folks at Tennis Served Fresh may disagree, but I like it!
The other semi lived up to its hype, for the most part. Murray gave Nadal his toughest run since their first meeting at the Australian Open, but Nadal was just too tough. The type of game that Murray was forced to play to stay in contention was so difficult to keep up, and eventually the errors did him in. What was up with Murray and Cedric Mourier arguing about the trainer at 6-5 in the first set? If you're Murray in that situation, you either need to insist on seeing the trainer, or you need to forget about it. It really bothered him in that tie break, and who knows what would have happened if he had managed to pull that one out? He didn't wilt like Gasquet in the second, so it could have made a huge difference.
But it didn't, and Nadal won. He hasn't been to the final of the Canada Masters since 2005, where he beat a 35-year old Andre Agassi. He won that in three, but he should have an easier time against 31-year old Kiefer. At this point, it's very difficult to see Rafa not continuing to dominate the hard court season like he did on clay. It may not have happened in years past, but he wasn't playing this well before. We may have traded one hegemonic tennis power for another! I'm calling today's final for Rafa, something like 6-3, 6-2.
Also worth noting: Bob and Mike Bryan are playing Nestor and Zimonjic, who just won Wimbledon. And it's actually being broadcast on www.atpmastersseries.tv! The first doubles match at the tournament that I'm going to get to watch. It should be exciting. Bob and Mike have had a lousy season by their standards, so maybe they can help redeem it with a win over the white-hot Nestor and Zimonjic.
And poor Jelena Jankovic! She had a chance to take the number one spot (again!) but she lost in the semis to Dinara Safina. I take Safina over Pennetta in the final, but that's another pretty exciting one. Should be closer than Nadal-Kiefer.
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