Semifinal day at the Rogers Masters Cup

It's a rainy Saturday in Toronto, and so the first semifinal has been delayed, with Simon leading Kiefer by one point to love. Not one set, not one game... one point. His lead is insurmountable! I'm looking forward to both of today's matches, so I hope that the weather cooperates. Let's get to the preview!

Gilles Simon is on an amazing tear, winning in Indianapolis and beating Federer this week. He also beat Cilic (who beat Roddick) and Acasuso (who beat Gulbis and Gonzalez) so he almost has to be the favorite against the 31-year old, injury-prone Kiefer. But Nicolas Kiefer has had a great week too, beating Fish (a tougher opponent than Simon's Donald Young), Youzhny, Davydenko, and Blake. Kiefer is 18-9 on the season and Simon is 27-15 with 2 titles, just for reference. Simon is trying to win his 10th match in a row, so he's got to be tired. But Kiefer is seven years older than his opponent, so that doesn't help him much. This match is in large part going to come down to whether Simon is more worn out from playing (and winning) so much is the past two weeks, or whether Kiefer is more worn out from his best run in a few years. Another factor is whether Kiefer's experience (he's been a Masters Series semi before, three times in fact) will trump Simon's youth. And also, who's more able to mentally withstand the frustration of what promises to be a rainy day. I think Simon has the edge, in the end, but it could go either way. Whoever wins this is almost a lock to lose in the final...

Because the second semi is between two incredibly solid players in their prime, rather than a guy on a great run and guy whose best years are probably behind him. Andy Murray versus Rafael Nadal. Of course, Rafa is the hottest thing on the tour right now. Simon's nine-match winning streak is nothing compared to Nadal's twenty-six. That includes titles at Hamburg, the French Open, Queens, and Wimbledon. His last loss was to Juan Carlos Ferrero at Rome in May, and he really lost to blisters, not his opponent. As Federer's star has fallen precipitously, Nadal's rise has been meteoric. After a nine-month title drought between the end of the 2007 clay-court season and the beginning of it in 2008, Nadal has just gone berserk.

Of course, hardcourts have always been Rafa's achilles heel (lower leg joint reference intentional). But does that even matter? The guy has played unbelievable tennis since April, and he's beaten his opponent, Andy Murray, four out of four times that they've played. But Murray's having a good year, too. He's won two titles (to Nadal's six this season), even though they were back in January and February. He's compiled a 27-10 record, which is fine, but pales in comparison to Nadal's tour-topping 57-7. Murray just made his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon, where he lost to Nadal in straight sets. Murray hasn't won a set off Nadal since the first time they played, at the Australian Open in 2007.

It's tough to bet against Nadal in this match, but Murray did just get his first career win over Djokovic, last night. If Nadal wins this match in anything but a marathon like the one he played against Moya earlier this year at Chennai, then he should take care of either Simon or Kiefer, easily. And if that's the case, it will be his first hard-court title in about fifteen months. I think it will be a big point of support for those who are saying that Nadal is taking Federer's mantle entirely, not just during three months of the year. But more on that, later. Murray could help Federer hold on to the Number One ranking, for just a little bit longer, if he can eke out a win over Nadal, tonight. Regardless of who wins, it promises to be a good match.