U.S. Open Preview

Thankfully, the nightmare scenario I described in my last post has not come to pass. The weather was sufficiently cooperative yesterday to allow all of the qualifying matches at the U.S. Open to be completed, and the New Haven Pilot Pen tournament finished up, as well.

The most interesting result, from a busy day of tennis, was Laura Robson (the 15-year old British phenom) losing 6-7(6) 6-4 6-7(4) to Eva Hrdinova. That's a tough loss for any player, but if the stats sheet is right (which it may not be, since it's definitely listing break points wrong) then Robson served 22 double faults to only 5 aces. She's got to be better about that. But she'll be back next year - I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't have to qualify when the next USO rolls around. An encouraging performance for the 15-year old.

Verdasco beating Querrey in the final is also interesting. Verdasco (nicknamed "Hot Sauce") has had a good year, but hasn't quite been able to follow-up his excellent run at the Australian Open. Now that he's back on hard courts, will he be back at his form from the beginning of the year? It's also worth noting that he and Federer are the only players going into the open on winning streaks. But Querrey has also been playing well (he surpasses James Blake to be the number 2 American this week) so both could have good Opens.

Looking ahead to the U.S. Open, on the men's side, let's start with Roger Federer's quarter. Federer has the ongoing record of most consecutive men's semifinals, and it looks like that will continue. In his quarter, only three players have a win over him: Lleyton Hewitt (last win in 2003), James Blake (last year's Olypmics), and Rainer Schuettler (in 2002). Since James is on a particularly bad run at the moment, it's tough to see anyone getting out of this quarter except for Federer. If you're really looking for an upset, Sam Querrey is your best bet, but it's still not a very good one.

Even if the outcome is a given, there are still some interesting matches. Donald Young, who did well to qualify, is a bit unlucky to get Tommy Robredo in the first round. Also, P-H Mathieu is going up against Mikhail Youzhny, who holds a 4-1 lead over the Frenchman. The Russian is anxious to get back up to the level he was playing at a few years ago, when he was in the top twenty. His ranking is at 60, now. So this is going to be hard-fought, no question.

The second quarter of the draw is a bit more wide open. Djokovic is the top seed, but he opens with one of the toughest first-round match-ups, against veteran Ivan Ljubicic. And when he (presumably) makes it through that, he should meet in-form Australian qualifier Carsten Ball in the second. Roddick, who is really the favorite in this quarter, opens against German Bjorn Phau, and could get Dmitri Tursunov in the second. Roddick only lost once to Tursunov, but it was in a 17-15 fifth set in a Davis Cup match in 2006. What is it with Roddick and killer fifth sets?

Some of the other interesting match-ups in the first round are John Isner against Victor Hanescu, who has been playing well, Indian qualifying Somdev Devvarman against Frederico Gil, and Florent Serra against Janko Tipsarevic. If Tipsy wins, he could get Verdasco in the second, assuming he makes it through Benjamin Becker. Verdasco is a possibility to make it out of this quarter. "Hot Sauce," Roddick, and Tommy Haas are all in the same eighth, and are all possibilities to beat Djokovic (the main contender in the top half of the quarter) and make it to the semis.

It's crazy to have Nadal in the third quarter and not the last one, but with his time off with injury this summer, his ranking has dropped. Normally that doesn't make so much of a difference with who you play in the first round, but with Richard Gasquet coming back from a doping suspension, he gets Nadal right off the bat. "Baby Fed" will have to be out of practice, but if he's smart, he worked on his fitness. And Nadal is still rusty, so there's an outside chance of an upset here, hard as that may be to believe. Even if Nadal makes it through Gasquet, his second round is against Llodra or Kiefer, both tough. He also has Almagro, Ferrer, Monfils, and Chardy in his eighth of the draw. It's going to tough to see him winning this quarter. Even if he makes it through to the quarterfinals, he'll probably get either Tsonga or Gonzalez. Somebody's going to wear him down, and he won't make it to the semis.

This is a tough quarter, no question. It also features Berdych and upstart Frenchman Josselin Ouanna. Lots of hot-and-cold players here, so whoever goes on a run will make it out of the quarter. Pretty good draw for Tsonga, who has been stymied by the big servers a la Karlovic and Isner lately, and he won't run into anybody like until the fourth round at the earliest, and Berdych isn't quite that type of player. So Tsonga's a good bet to make it through.

The final quarter, featuring new number two Andy Murray, is not quite as loaded as the third, but still has some solid players. Murray opens with a match that people are calling a tough one, but Murray schooled Ernests Gulbis at Wimbledon, and the Latvian is going through one of the worst sophomore slumps I've ever seen. Smooth sailing for Murray, there. He could get Karlovic in the third round, which would be tricky. And then possibly Cilic or a rematch of the Wimbledon under-the-roof match against Stan Wawrinka. Stan would want some revenge, there.

The second-highest seed in this quarter is also good to watch - JMDP, Juan Martin Del Potro. He followed up his miraculous summer last year with another strong showing, but he has a tough couple of opening rounds as well. He opens against Juan Monaco and then could give Marat Safin his U.S. Open farewell. If he makes it to Gilles Simon, that could give him trouble, since Simon plays the same kind of game that Hewitt used to stymie him at Wimbledon this year.

Unfortunately, Mardy Fish has been hobbled with injury, so he probably won't be much of a factor, but Ferrero (who opens against Fabrice Santoro, a great first-round match) could make some noise. So could top-seeded qualifier Tomaz Bellucci. Another first-round to watch is Feliciano Lopez against Taylor Dent. Not sure where Dent has been all year, but if he's going to do anything, this is the stage to do it. All in all, it's tough to bet against Murray to make it through this quarter, but that's why we play the games. It's going to be exciting, no matter what.

I'll admit that I'm just not as familiar with the players outside the top 40 on the women's side, so it's tougher for me to analyze the opening rounds. But I'll jump in for second or third-round analysis, once I've got a better picture of what's going on. I'm interested to see what Melanie Oudin, Kim Clijsters, and Jelena Dokic might be able to do. Keep an eye on them.

Tomorrow, the action officially starts. I'll be on the outer courts, since there's more action to see, and it's cheaper than a stadium seat. I'm absolutely thrilled, and will be there at 10 when the gates open. Hope you're looking forward to watching it on TV!