US Open Men's Draw Preview

Okay, and now for my look at the USO Men's draw. I'm the first to admit that I have more knowledge of tennis on the men's side, so I can look at the draw with more granular attention than I did on the women's side. Let me take a look at each eighth of the draw, to see the interesting match-ups and storylines to watch for over the next two weeks.

The top seed is Rafael Nadal, on a two-Grand Slam winning streak, and the undisputed number one in the world. However, Nadal has never made it past the semifinals here, and in all honesty, I don't think he will this time around, either. His draw is absolutely brutal. He opens against Teymuraz Gabashvili, and while that should be an easy match-up, it will all depend on how Nadal plays. If Nadal doesn't play aggressive and is satisfied with a lot of top-spin from behind the baseline, Gabashvili will eat that up. That was exactly how Roddick played him at the French Open, and the Russian demolished the high-bouncing, high-topspin groundstrokes with a vengeance. But I'll assume he gets past that match, and then potentially gets Uzbek Denis Istomin in the second round. The New Haven finalist may actually be Nadal's easiest opponent. Because after that, he could get Gilles Simon, who has beaten Rafa before. After that, he might get Feliciano Lopez or Ivan Ljubicic, both of whom have beaten him this year. He could also find himself facing Stakhovsky or Harrison, two untested but talented young players. And that's just to get to the quarterfinals! For Nadal to make smooth progress, the players who have the weapons to beat him are going to have to get beaten - if Kohlschreiber is his third round opponent, that works in the Spaniard's favor. I do think he'll make it through, but he could be tired enough by that point to fade just as the tournament enters its toughest stage. In this section, watch for Stakhovsky, who is unbelievably streaky, but has only won one match at a Grand Slam in his whole career, as well as U.S. teen Ryan Harrison, who opens against Ljubicic in one of the best 1st rounds of the tourney. Gilles Simon also gets Donald Young in the opener, and while I favor the Frenchman, the young Young could pull that off.

Pretty much no matter what, Nadal's opponent in the quarters is going to be somebody who can handle him on this surface. I see four players who have the potential to make it out of this part of the draw - the two top seeds are also Spaniards who do well on hard courts, Fernando Verdasco and David Ferrer, who actually beat Nadal here three years ago. Verdasco, of course, played Nadal brutally tight at the Aussie Open in 2009. The other two seeds might even be tougher, though. The Argentine vet David Nalbandian still has the potential to play like a world-beater, and this is his first slam since his comeback. He's a former semifinalist here, and he could be the one who Nadal finds facing him in the quarters - that's bad news for Nadal, who has had trouble with Nalby in the past, despite their even head-to-head, both of Nadal's wins were scraped out by small margins, and Nalby ran away with both of his matches. The real wildcard here is the young Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who won his first tournament in the spring, had an amazing clay court run, and then was injured and essentially missed the French and Wimbledon. But he is so good that he could beat Nadal here. Other than those four guys, there aren't a lot of other guys to watch - but you may want to keep an eye on Dolgopolov and Chardy, who open against Ferrer and Gulbis. Beyond that, I like Jarkko Nieminen, but it's hard to think that his best days aren't behind him.

The next sectino of the draw belongs to Andy Murray, but it could be a tough run for him. This is his favorite tournament and the one he'd most want to win, but he'll have to get through some tough contenders to do it this year. His first couple rounds are cake - Dustin Brown is fun and flashy, but I don't see him troubling Andy. After that, though, things get tricky. His third round opponent will probably be Wawrinka, who has a new coach (Peter Lundgren) and has beaten Murray three times - and their last match at Wimbledon was a real nail-biter. After that, the Scot will probably get either Nicolas Almagro or Sam Querrey, both of whom are big-hitters who can trouble Andy if he gets too defensive. Sam even beat Murray earlier this year, and is just aching for a big win at a grand slam. I still like Murray's chances of making the quarters, but his road is going to be tough.

If Murray makes it to the quarters, though, I definitely like him finding his way through to the semis. The bottom eighth of the top half of the draw is not that strong, honestly. Two of the seeds may be hobbled by injury - Radek Stepanek just came off a long injury hiatus, and Isner rolled his ankle a couple of weeks ago. Youzhny is a former semifinalist here, but since then hasn't made it past the second round, and he has a killer opening round against Kazakh Andrey Golubev. Tomas Berdych is the only real contender in this section, and he might still be hung over from his Wimbledon final loss. He's got a tough first round against Michael Llodra, too. Keep an eye on the Sela-Malisse match, as well, and see how well 17-year old Jack Sock can do against Marco Chiudinelli. I don't expect much, but if he can pull off a win, there may be more to his future than I had thought. I like Berdych getting through here, but a surprise quarterfinalist is probably just as likely.

The next section of the draw is by seeding Davydenko's, but it's really Roddick's. The Russian, despite playing brilliant tennis at the end of last year, hasn't really gotten his mojo back, and Roddick has a very strong record against him. Assuming that Roddick is really recovered from the mono he had - because if that's the case, all bets are off. Davydenko has a tough opener against American Michael Russell, and then he might get Richard Gasquet, followed by either Kevin Anderson or Thomaz Bellucci? That's just brutal. As for Roddick, I like his chances, even though his opponents could line up as a rogue's gallery of his past vanquishers - after an easy first round, he might get Tipsarevic, who beat him at Wimbledon in 2008, one of his career's lowest points (until this year...), and then Monfils, who beat him at the French Open in 2009, and then Gasquet, who beat him at Wimbledon in 2006. But honestly, none of these guys have been in top form recently. The biggest challenge for Roddick might be if he got South African Kevin Anderson in the round of 16, since he's the same type of player as John Isner, who beat him here last year. In any case, I like Roddick making the quarters, as long as he's healthy. Watch Tipsarevic's match against Olivier Rochus in the first round, as well as Anderson against Somdev Devvaramn. Both of those could be fun outside court viewing.

The next quarter of the draw is for the chance of (probably) playing Roddick in the quarterfinals, and I have to think that Roddick is thrilled to see Djokovic there. Except for an ugly match here in 2008, Roddick has pretty much dominated Djokovic in these conditions - that is, hot hardcourt quarterfinals. Of course, it's no guarantee that Djoker will get that far, because he has a tough section. After an opening match against compatriot Viktor Troicki, things get a bit easier for the Serb in the second round. But the third round might get tougher - James Blake is hoping to get back on his feet after a disappointing year, and he loves this tournament. I think Blake can get that far, but he would have to find some of the old magic to even come closer to beating Djokovic. The real danger comes from the other two seeds in the draw, a pair of great guys who are both experiencing career renaissances - Fish and Baghdatis. They started off the year playing great matches back to back in Sydney and Brisbane, and I would be shocked if they don't meet again in the third round. The other players in that little part of the draw who could make noise might be Ginepri and Clement, but I don't think so. Djokovic will get the winner of that match, and either way there could be an upset in the cards.

Moving on to Soderling's section of the draw - and it really is the Swede's section, since he doesn't have a lot of competition. Really, this is probably the weakest quarter of the draw. So Soderling could get Marin Cilic, who has been underperforming ever since making the Aussie Open semis, and Fernando Gonzalez, who is just back from an injury layoff and has only played one match since the French Open, or Albert Montanes, who has had 82% of his career match wins on clay. There are some floaters in this section, but nobody has proven themselves yet - somebody would have to go on a groundbreaking run. Taylor Dent is here, but his comeback has not quite been going to plan, and he got smoked by the Swede earlier this year at Roland Garros. Thiemo De Bakker is an interesting player to keep an eye on, but this isn't his favorite surface, yet. There are three young guns who I think have a very good chance of getting a couple wins - Carsten Ball, Milos Raonic (who play each other in the first round), and Kei Nishikori. The young Japanese player actually has a shot at upsetting Cilic, if he plays as well as he's capable. In any case, it won't matter, because Soderling's going to make the quarterfinals...

... where he's going to find Roger Federer. The final section of the draw is going to be a walk through the park for Fed, at least through to the quarters. This is despite having to potentially get through a pair of former world number ones. Fed's first two rounds are barely worth mentioning, and if he loses a set to either Dabul, Beck, or Berrer, then we'll really have to worry. After that, he could get Lleyton Hewitt, who may have beaten him recently in Halle, but that was something of a fluke - a weird letdown from the Fed, which we won't see here in the U.S. Open. And after that, he might get JC Ferrero, who (can you believe this?) is the only person in the draw who has a win against Federer at the U.S. Open. The other players who have done so are Andre Agassi, Max Mirnyi, and Juan Martin Del Potro. But Ferrero is not at his best on hardcourts anymore, and if he even makes it to Federer, he'll get smoked. Fed's through to a quarterfinal match-up with Soderling, which will at least be interesting. The other players to watch in this section are Jurgen Melzer and his first round opponent, Dmitry Tursunov, as well as Lithuanian teen and former junior champ Ricardas Berankis. But let's not kid ourselves, this section is all about Federer...

As for tomorrow's matches, it will be good to see what kind of form Federer and Roddick are in, but don't expect many upsets. Hewitt has a potentially tough match against PH Mathieu, but I still like Rusty in that one. Taylor Dent will be thrilled to be back on the grandstand, the site of one of his career's best wins last year against Ivan Navarro. Berankis plays Ryan Sweeting, and that could be an interesting match, and so could Melzer-Tursunov. Dmitry is an hilarious guy, and I hope to see him back in the tennis conversation, as he's been out for a while with injury. Look at Monfils-Kendrick, as well, and two young guns facing off on Court 13, Nishikori against Korolev.

There's lots of great tennis set to take place over the next fourteen days, and I am absolutely salivating at the prospect of it.