Week 42 Semifinals

With eight players left in the two tournaments we have going on this week, there are two interesting stories to look at. The first is whether anyone can stop Roger Federer in Stockholm. Honestly, the odds are not great at this point. Federer looked beatable in the first set against compatriot Wawrinka, who came out absolutely on fire but couldn't keep up that level of play, and faded in the second and third sets, while Federer has started at less than his best, only to raise his game and come through in the end. The only other player who had a shot at beating Fed was second seed Robin Soderling, who at least has a win over Federer this year - but he was beaten by Florian Mayer, who eked out a tight first set and then ran away with the second, as a frustrated Soderling started spraying errors.

Fed still has to play Ivan Ljubicic in the semis, but Ljubicic hasn't beaten Federer since 2003, and that's quite a while ago. The other semifinalist, Jarkko Nieminen, is 0-11 against the Fed. Mayer also doesn't have a win against the former world number one. So things are looking good for Roger to clinch the title in Stockholm.

In Moscow, the story is quite different - the seeds have been dropping like flies, and only one is left. Marcos Baghdatis is also the only player left of the four semifinalists who has already won an ATP title. The other three players have yet to take one, so it will be interesting to see whether Baggy can frustrate them, or if we'll have a first-time winner this week. I think the least likely contender is probably Pablo Cuevas. He's a fine player, but this isn't his best surface. When he wins a title, I expect it will be on clay.

As for the other two players, this could be their week. Denis Istomin and Viktor Troicki are both extremely capable players on this surface, and it's only a matter of time before they each win titles. Istomin made a final this year, and lost a tight match to Sergiy Stakhovsky, while Troicki has made two finals before, even though he hasn't made one this year. Both players have showed flashes of brilliance that suggest to me that they could be bound for the top 20, if they could just work on their consistency. Both players lost excellent matches to Nadal in the past month - and even playing Nadal tough when he's on his game is an accomplishment. I'd actually like to see Istomin-Troicki in the final, but we'll just have to wait and see how it shakes out.