Montreal Rogers Masters 2009 Semifinals

In the quarters, three out of four went pretty much as expected: Roddick frustrated Djokovic, Murray frustrated Davydenko, and Nadal showed he wasn't totally match-fit yet against Del Potro. The surprise - shocker, really - was the way that Federer gave away his match against Tsonga. Up 5-1 in the third set, after winning the second 6-1 and losing the first in a tight tiebreak, Federer went on to lose in a third set tiebreak. Credit to Tsonga, but this will certainly add fuel to the fire of the questions about Federer's dedication.

In the semis, we have Tsonga-Murray. They haven't played since the 1st round of the 2008 Australian Open, when Tsonga surprisingly dumped Andy M and went on to make the final. It goes without saying that a lot has happened since then. Their head-to-head is tied at one apiece, but Murray has been vastly more consistent over the past two years (and less plagued by injuries, so here's hoping Tsonga's wrist is alright). Murray is the odds-on favorite 1.24:5, but Federer was a bigger favorite before that match. Tsonga is a streaky player who can take down the best players in the world when he's playing at his best, but he can also stumble when he should be winning the match. I think this will be closer than some might expect, but it's tough to bet against Murray.

The other match, between Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro) is much closer (nearly even money on betfair, with a slight advantage to JMDP). Juan Martin is up 2-0 against Roddick lifetime, including a win just last week in the Washington final. However, I think Del Potro may be starting to get a little jaded, and even though the second set against Nadal was a quick one yesterday, the match still didn't end until late. I also think that Roddick and coach Stefanki will have had time to examine last week's final to see what strategies didn't work (don't give him a running forehand!) and will come into this match with a revised gameplan. But Juan Martin could definitely continue his great run and make it to his first Masters Series final.

Whatever happens today, the odds are the final is going to be part of a great narrative. If it's Andy-Andy, the Brit will be looking for revenge after the Wimbledon semifinal defeat. If it's Roddick-Tsonga, Roddick will be looking to avenge a tough loss at Paris last year (which Tsonga went on to win) in which Roddick ended up with nine more points total (126-117) but was 3 for 17 on break points. If it's Del Potro-Murray, they've got some great history. Del Potro won their last meeting, but Murray broke Del Potro's 4-tournament winning streak at the U.S. Open last year. And, of course, at their first meeting in Rome in 2008, Del Po uttered the immortal line "You and your mother. You are the same always." And Tsonga has never beaten Del Po, most recently losing to him on his home soil at the French Open.

Some tennis fans may be disappointed that the top two guys are out of the tournament, because they prefer the game when one or two people is dominating the field. I would much rather have an eight-way race for every tournament, so I hope that these top players can continue to make the rest of the year look this exciting.