Showing posts with label tsonga. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tsonga. Show all posts

Friday, April 23, 2010

Barcelona Quarterfinals

We're down to the last eight in Barcelona, and the field looks almost the way you'd expect at this stage. With Nadal out of the draw, it's actually interesting to see who might make it through to the finish. There have been a handful of upsets, and the remaining match-ups are mostly good.

The only one that I think will probably be uneven is the only match-up featuring a real pretender. Second seed Robin Soderling faces Eduardo Schwank, who had a good win over Fabio Fognini in the first round, but then beat a hobbled Hewitt and lucky loser Ivan Navarro. Expect the Swede to do well in that match. Schwank is only a few weeks removed from being fined for failing to give his best effort against Juan Ignacio Chela in Houston, which doesn't help his chances here.

The other three matches could all be competitive. While everyone was expecting a rematch from last week between Tsonga and Ferrero, young Danish spoiler Thiemo De Bakker upset the player with the most wins on clay this year, winning the first and third sets of his match against Ferrero in tiebreaks. Big win for De Bakker. Against Tsonga, he'll also have a tough time, but this is his favorite surface, and he may be ready to make his move.

The other two matches both feature young guns against seasoned veterans, as well. Ernests Gulbis has had an easy road to the quarterfinals, as both of the seeds in his section were upset before Gulbis in turn beat their vanquishers. He now faces Fernando Verdasco. Gulbis is still trying to build off the momentum he should have gained by winning his first title in Del Ray Beach and to recapture the magic during his breakout run at the French Open two years ago. A deep run here could do the trick.

The last match-up is between two players who have already demonstrated their bona fides on the crushed brick. David Ferrer and Tomaz Bellucci are playing for what would have been Nadal's semifinal spot, so they know what a chance they've been given. Ferrer won their only meeting, earlier this year, and I favor him again, but Bellucci has a shot.

Everyone left in the draw knows that they dodged a freight train with Nadal's withdrawal, so expect everyone to be eager to take advantage of this unexpected chance to win a title. And everyone left has been hot. Of the eight players left in the draw, only Tsonga, Schwank, and De Bakker have not already won a title this year. So this is a tough field to get through.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Miami Preview

I know that action has already started in Miami, but none of the seeds have played yet, so we'll take a look at their placement in the draw. Even if the last Masters Series event ended in a huge surprise, but the winner was still seeded.

Federer, in his loss to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, didn't give the Cypriot much credit. Baggy ended up in the Swiss's quarter once again, so he may get a chance at a rematch. But there are some other players there for Federer to worry about. It's unlikely that Federer will be challenged until the fourth round, where he may face either Gilles Simon or Tomas Berdych. His quartefinal opponent may be Baghdatis, Verdasco, or Cilic. All of these guys are dangerous players on hard courts, and if Federer isn't quite as motivated to play at these Masters Series events as he once was, anyone could play a great match and score an upset. Or he may want to forget about what happened in Miami as quickly as possible and steamroll his way to the semis. Also possible.

Andy Murray's quarter is opposite Federer's and it doesn't look much easier. Murray could get Fish in the second round, then Feliciano Lopez in the third. After that, he may get Wawrinka or Youzhny. That's a damn tough eighth of the draw to find yourself in. And if he makes it through all that to reach the quarters, he'll likely either get a rematch with Robin Soderling, or he'll play big-hitting Fernando Gonzalez. Janko Tipsarevic, who beat Murray in Dubai, is also here, but I don't see him getting another shot at Murray. That's a tough road to the semis, only to possibly find Federer there.

I think the reason that all of the top seeds got relatively difficult draws is in part because of the depth of men's tennis, but also because a lot of really top-notch players are currently underranked, and can end up anywhere in a draw like this. Nadal opens against Taylor Dent and could get David Nalbandian in the third round, as an example of just how far some players are underranked. After that, he may get either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic - just about as different as two playing styles can get, so that's tough to get ready for, when you're thinking ahead. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be one of two players - it could JW Tsonga or big-hitting American John Isner. Isner was lucky to find himself in Tsonga's section, as the Frenchman has trouble dealing with the really big servers.

The final quarter of the draw is Djokovic's, and while I was hoping for the Djoker to find Richard Gasquet in the second round, Olivier Rochus spoiled that. I thought that he may get James Blake in the third round as well, but Blake has his hands full with Serbian teenager Filip Krajinovic. There are still plenty of tough players in his little section, though. Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro can both hit anyone off the court on the right day, and Djokovic's seeded third-round opponent, Tomaz Bellucci, is still looking for his breakthrough win. If Djokovic got the rest he needed in the past week, he should make it through, but otherwise, who knows?

Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent is seeded to be Andy Roddick, last week's losing finalist. The good news for Andy is that there's only one player in his 1/8 of the draw that should really threaten him. The bad news is that player is last week's titlist, Ivan Ljubicic. But keep in mind that Ljubicic just turned 31, so it may be tough for him to keep up such a fantastic run of form for another week and a half. Roddick will I'm sure be hoping that Tommy Robredo upsets Ljubicic in order to get another drubbing from Roddick in the round of sixteen.

In the last tournament, upsets were the order of the day. Will the top players restore order here in Miami, or will we have another surprise set of finalists?

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Indian Wells Tuesday - Stunning Upset!

As the action draws to a close today, we finish what was a day of not all that thrilling tennis, up until the last match. First, a look at the other action around the grounds. Most of the seeded players cruised today. Roddick, Soderling, Murray, and Robredo all made it through without dropping a set. Only Soderling even went to a tiebreak. Tsonga lost a set on route to victory, but it was only a momentary lapse, and Montanes did not really have his teeth in the second and third sets.

The second-last match of the night, between James Blake and Nicolas Almagro, was a tight one, but was marred by some admittedly questionable calls at key moments, and subsequently more frustration than is necessary from Blake. He was playing well, but Almagro was serving bombs and smacking winners off both sides. Usually, Almagro can't keep that up for an entire match, but he was on tonight. It's no shame that James lost, and hopefully he'll be encouraged by the strength of his player this week.

The following match had all of the intensity and none of the controversy, as well as a much more marquee match-up. Twenty-seventh seed Marcos Baghdatis was facing Roger Federer in a rematch of the pair's Australian Open final from 2007. They had faced each other five other times, and Baghdatis was 2-15 in sets against the mighty Fed. When Federer won the first set 7-5 tonight, it looked like it would be more of the same. But Baghdatis fought back. Even though he was down by several match points, he brought the match to a third-set tiebreak and won with a single minibreak, 7-4. It's really a famous victory for the Cypriot, who is playing like he was when he made the top ten. There's no reason he can't find his way back there, if he can keep up this level of play.

As Cara Black and Liezel Huber also lost today, that means that the only top seeds left in the tournament are Nestor and Zimonjic in the men's doubles. This really is an odd tournament, in terms of favorites dropping like flies. Today, the women's side was relatively quiet, with the only upset between Maria Martinez-Sanchez and Yanina Wickmayer, which isn't a huge upset by any means. And Suarez-Navarro and Kleybanova are still on-court, so who knows what will happen there. So far, there have been six breaks in seven games, so Suarez-Navarro is up a hold.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the two halves of the tournament come together. Baghdatis is really at a disadvantage, having had to play so late and then come back tomorrow. Fortunately, he'll be last on Court 2 to play Tommy Robredo, but just based on health, it's going to be a tough ask for the Cypriot to follow up that win.

Also on court 2, Guillermo-Garcia Lopez plays Juan Monaco, which is not quite the match-up that you'd expect this deep into a hardcourt Masters series event. Good for both of these guys for making it this far, though. Unfortunately, they don't have much interest here in the states, so they're up first. Look for that match to be poorly-attended. Next up, Ivan Ljubicic faces Novak Djokovic, and if Djokovic decides to leave the court for a set again this match, expect the veteran Ljubicic to take advantage, unlike Kohlschreiber in the last round. There might be another upset here, depending on whether or not Djokovic shows up. Finally on court 2, Viktor Troicki will play his second game of the tournament against Tomaz Berdych. I'll admit that I don't give Troicki much of a shot here, particularly with how well Berdych played against Verdasco.

On center court, there are some real crackerjack matches. John Isner is playing Rafael Nadal, and though Nadal's knees have not seemed to be troubling him thus far this tournament, the big-hitting giant will give them their sternest test yet. After that, Tsonga and Soderling are playing in the earliest meeting of top ten players in this tournament. Both are playing great, but Soderling has a 2-0 advantage. Tsonga sometimes doesn't handle playing against big servers that well, which is strange since he's one of the best servers on tour. Soderling may have the advantage, but this should be close.

In the night session, both Andys are in action, but not against each other. Andy Roddick faces Austrian Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, who got a walkover from Simon Gruel. Roddick's last opponent had gotten a retirement as well, and it didn't seem to do him much good. But Melzer is a tougher opponent, even though Roddick is 9-0 against him. As Bagdhatis showed today, a dominating head-to-head does not mean a dominating victory. The last match of the day features Andy Murray against Nicolas Almagro. Now Almagro is exactly the type of heavy-hitter who can trouble Murray, and if the Spaniard plays (and particularly serves) as well as he did against Blake, then Murray could be in trouble. But Murray can have a way of blunting those players' power, and getting them off their game enough to start missing. Look for him to do that tomorrow.

One final little NB - Isner and Querrey are playing Karlovic and Vemic in doubles tomorrow. The two biggest players on the tour on opposite sides of the net again.

Really, the latter stages of the tournament begins tomorrow in earnest. I'm anxious to see if the trend of upsets continues.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Indian Wells Preview

Well, the qualifiers are over, and my predictions about the qualifiers were not quite the best. It just goes to show that anything can happen, and that anyone who pretends to be knowledgeable about these sorts of things really won't do that much (if any better) than chance, most of the time. That said, let's take a look at the main draw and see how far off I can be this time.

This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.

It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.

Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.

The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.

Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.

Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.

In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.

Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.

Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Second semifinal, Australian Open

While the results were about what I expected from yesterday, the routes that the various matches took weren't quite what I thought they would be. Serena Williams struggled against a solid Li Na and was clearly hurting, physically. But after she won in straight sets, she went out with her sister and beat Lisa Raymond and Renee Stubbs in the doubles semifinal. The doubles final is today, and then the women's final is tomorrow. That's a lot of tennis for Serena to play in not a lot of time.

And her opponent in the final is going to be relatively fresh, as Justine Henin breezed through Zheng Jie, dropping only one game in the process. It would be a shame if the first meeting between these two champions in a major final featured a Serena who was at less than her best, but we'll see. Nadal should have been exhausted in last year's final as well, but he found a way to come out on top.

The men's semi from yesterday looked like it was going to be a repeat of the Murray-Cilic match from last year's U.S. Open, with Murray coming out tentative and Cilic coming out on fire. But Murray upped his game and his offense, while Cilic just ran out of gas. A great first run to the semifinals for the young Croat, and I expect we'll see him here again.

For tonight, Federer plays Tsonga. The pair have a 1-1 record, but their last meeting was one of the craziest ones from 2009. After Tsonga took the first set at Montreal in a tiebreak, Federer stepped it up. He took the second set 6-1, and then was up 5-1 in the third. Suddenly, amazingly, he took his foot off the gas, and Tsonga break Fed while he was serving for the match, twice. He then took the third in a tiebreak.

I don't expect Federer to drop off like that in this semifinal, and Tsonga has to be exhausted, after winning the first two five-set matches of his career in the last two rounds. It seems like a Murray-Federer final is all but a sure thing at this point. Unless J.W. "Ali" Tsonga can get back to the gear he was playing at two years ago at this tournament, but honestly, I haven't seen him play that well since.

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Montreal Rogers Masters 2009 Semifinals

In the quarters, three out of four went pretty much as expected: Roddick frustrated Djokovic, Murray frustrated Davydenko, and Nadal showed he wasn't totally match-fit yet against Del Potro. The surprise - shocker, really - was the way that Federer gave away his match against Tsonga. Up 5-1 in the third set, after winning the second 6-1 and losing the first in a tight tiebreak, Federer went on to lose in a third set tiebreak. Credit to Tsonga, but this will certainly add fuel to the fire of the questions about Federer's dedication.

In the semis, we have Tsonga-Murray. They haven't played since the 1st round of the 2008 Australian Open, when Tsonga surprisingly dumped Andy M and went on to make the final. It goes without saying that a lot has happened since then. Their head-to-head is tied at one apiece, but Murray has been vastly more consistent over the past two years (and less plagued by injuries, so here's hoping Tsonga's wrist is alright). Murray is the odds-on favorite 1.24:5, but Federer was a bigger favorite before that match. Tsonga is a streaky player who can take down the best players in the world when he's playing at his best, but he can also stumble when he should be winning the match. I think this will be closer than some might expect, but it's tough to bet against Murray.

The other match, between Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro) is much closer (nearly even money on betfair, with a slight advantage to JMDP). Juan Martin is up 2-0 against Roddick lifetime, including a win just last week in the Washington final. However, I think Del Potro may be starting to get a little jaded, and even though the second set against Nadal was a quick one yesterday, the match still didn't end until late. I also think that Roddick and coach Stefanki will have had time to examine last week's final to see what strategies didn't work (don't give him a running forehand!) and will come into this match with a revised gameplan. But Juan Martin could definitely continue his great run and make it to his first Masters Series final.

Whatever happens today, the odds are the final is going to be part of a great narrative. If it's Andy-Andy, the Brit will be looking for revenge after the Wimbledon semifinal defeat. If it's Roddick-Tsonga, Roddick will be looking to avenge a tough loss at Paris last year (which Tsonga went on to win) in which Roddick ended up with nine more points total (126-117) but was 3 for 17 on break points. If it's Del Potro-Murray, they've got some great history. Del Potro won their last meeting, but Murray broke Del Potro's 4-tournament winning streak at the U.S. Open last year. And, of course, at their first meeting in Rome in 2008, Del Po uttered the immortal line "You and your mother. You are the same always." And Tsonga has never beaten Del Po, most recently losing to him on his home soil at the French Open.

Some tennis fans may be disappointed that the top two guys are out of the tournament, because they prefer the game when one or two people is dominating the field. I would much rather have an eight-way race for every tournament, so I hope that these top players can continue to make the rest of the year look this exciting.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Rogers Cup Montreal - Historic QF Lineup

For the first time in ATP history, the top eight players in the world rankings are the eight players left in the quarterfinals of a tournament. This is exciting, by itself, because it has never happened before on the tour, but it is much more exciting because it guarantees that the remaining seven matches are going to be marquee caliber.

To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.

The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.

The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.

Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.

Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

The AO's first casualty

Even though rain in Chennai prevented any matches from being played to completion, the top seed still managed to find his way out of the tournament: Davydenko pulled out with an injury to his heel, which also takes him out of the Australian Open. It's inevitable that somebody is going to be unable to play at each of these big tournaments, but Davydenko is such a decent, steady, fit guy that I'm surprised it's him. Here's hoping for a swift recovery.

While it rained in India, there was some very interesting play in Australia and Qatar. In Brisbane, Gulbis couldn't follow up on his victory over Djokovic, and lost to Paul-Henri Mathieu. Does that mean that Djoko's loss had more to do with Novak being rusty or with Gulbis not being mature enough to perform up to the same level after securing the biggest win of his career? Probably a bit of both.

Kei Nishikori continues to impress, beating fifth seed Tomas Berdych. Ancic fell to Verdasco, who was always the favorite, but I bet Ancic's marathon of a match yesterday didn't help his chances. Speaking of marathons, Tsonga had to win the second and third sets in tiebreaks after getting bageled in the first by Nieminen to avenge a loss that the Finn dealt the Frenchman almost exactly a year ago.

Tsonga will be rewarded with a day's rest and then a match against his countryman Richard Gasquet, who will have had two days off after a much-easier match against Taylor Dent. The pair are 2-2, and while Tsonga has been playing better tennis of late, I bet that Gasquet would like to remind French fans that he's still around. That one could be good.

But as for tomorrow in Brisbane, the headline match has to be Ana Ivanovic against Amelie Mauresmo, who both had tough three-set victories today. Mauresmo will have to return to her 2006 form to win this one. The Frenchwoman has been on the verge of retiring for quite a while, but it would be great to see her have a late-career resurgence.

The other highlight is to see if Kei Nishikori can continue to roll, as he comes up against the guy who beat the guy who beat Djokovic, P.H. Mathieu. I'd love to see the Japanese teen continue to win, but I figure that at some point, he's going to run into somebody with enough experience to stop him, and Mathieu may be just the veteran to do that. Also, keep an eye on doubles team Chris Guccione and Carsten Ball, who are (I believe) the only local players left in this Aussie tournament. Don't expect them to last long against top-seeded Mirnyi and Ram.

In Doha, things continue much as one might expect, but interesting clashes are coming up fast. Today, all the seeds won and Youzhny had his expected slump after beating Andreev yesterday, falling to Victor Hanescu. None of the matches in Qatar were terribly thrilling, although Kohlschreiber had to lose a second set tie-break before beating Kristof Vliegen in three. Here's hoping he keeps it close enough with Roger Federer to lose a tie-break.

Tomorrow, Roddick and Murray should both come through easily against Hanescu and Stakhovsky, respectively. Roddick in particular needs to get as much momentum as he can before the season's first major in two weeks. The real exciting match tomorrow is Nadal against Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has never beat the Spaniard, but Monfils is getting better and better, so this is probably the best shot he's had yet. Really, that ought to be headlining match tomorrow, but they had to put it at mid-day, so Rafa could have a little time to recover before he went back to play doubles against Santoro (who he's already beaten once) and Youzhny. Unless Monfils really tires him out, he should win that one, too.

In addition to Nadal, Tsonga is also still in both the singles and doubles draws, as are Verdasco, Tipsarevic, and Schuettler, thought some of them haven't even played a doubles match, yet. I'm pressed with these guys that can play singles and doubles and do well at both. The game is much more physical than it was in the 80's, when guys like McEnroe would win both the singles and doubles grand slam titles at the same tournament, multiple times.

We also have Ivo against Ivo to look forward to, but unfortunately, Aleksandra Wozniack lost before she could play Caroline Wozniacki. To have Ivo-Ivo and Wozniack-Wozniacki on the same day would have been just too good.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

First week of 2009 preview

Looking ahead to the first week of the tennis season proper, there are some very intriguing matches. It's time for some players to make a statement that they're here to stay or that they're still around. There isn't much time to build some momentum going into the first grand slam of the season, so players have to take every opportunity that they can.

The most interesting path that any particular player has in front of him is Novak Djokovic, the top seed in Brisbane. His first three matches could be against Ernests Gulbis, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and then Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. If he gets through that unscathed, he could face Verdasco, Ancic, Ferrero, or Mardy Fish in the semifinals. Since his season went longer than anyone else's, we'll see how he recovered in the short off-season.

The bottom half of the Brisbane draw isn't quite as stacked, but it's still very exciting. The best first-round match, I think, is Marcos Baghdatis versus the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen. Baggy did not live up to his talent last year, so maybe he can turn things around in 2009. A solid start against a solid player like Jarkko is one way to get that off on the right foot. You've also got Stepanek, Soderling, and Gasquet, who are all contenders. But the real force in this half is JW Tsonga, the number two seed. I'm sure everyone would love to see another Tsonga-Djokovic match-up in the final. After Djoko won their first meeting in the AO final last year, Tsonga has won their next three meetings. There may be a rivalry developing here.

The Chennai event might seem less exciting, as it has a higher proportion of rising stars who haven't made their mark yet or tour veterans whose best days may be behind them. Top seed Davydenko really should come through this with no trouble, but there are some players who might upset Kolya. He should at least get to the quarters (H.T. Lee can come up with some good matches, but the Korean just turned 33) but at that point, he may find Marin Cilic, Dudi Sela, or Janko Tipsarevic waiting for him.

I like Ivo Karlovic in the bottom half, (there could be a second round Ivo v. Ivo match between Karlovic and Minar) but Carlos Moya is 4-0 against the ace machine. It will also be interesting to see if Stanislas Wawrinka and Rainier Schuettler can get their games back. Both had spectacular runs in the middle of 2008 (Schuettler's took him to the semifinals at Wimbledon) but had trouble the rest of the year. The Swiss #2 ended the year by losing his last four matches, and Schuettler went on an eight match losing streak between January and May. Any of those seeds could come out of the bottom half.

The real drama should take place in Doha this week. There aren't that many intriguing first round matches, but Nadal-Santoro should be fun. I'm glad to see the magician has decided not to retire, yet. Youzhny-Andreev could also be a close one. I'd like to see Youzhny have a more solid 2009 than he did in 2008, even though he was an infamous YouTube star.

If everything goes with the seeds, and it probably should - the only other possible spoiler I see is young Viktor Troicki - then we'll have a Nadal-Monfils, Roddick-Andreev, Tursunov-Murray, and Kohlschreiber-Federer quarterfinal round. Then, potentially, a Roddick-Nadal and Murray-Federer (Round 7!) semis. Whoever can make it through this field is going to have the biggest boost to start their season. I like Murray, honestly, since he beat the the top two players in the world last week at Abu Dhabi. Could this be the Scot's year?