First week of 2009 preview

Looking ahead to the first week of the tennis season proper, there are some very intriguing matches. It's time for some players to make a statement that they're here to stay or that they're still around. There isn't much time to build some momentum going into the first grand slam of the season, so players have to take every opportunity that they can.

The most interesting path that any particular player has in front of him is Novak Djokovic, the top seed in Brisbane. His first three matches could be against Ernests Gulbis, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and then Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. If he gets through that unscathed, he could face Verdasco, Ancic, Ferrero, or Mardy Fish in the semifinals. Since his season went longer than anyone else's, we'll see how he recovered in the short off-season.

The bottom half of the Brisbane draw isn't quite as stacked, but it's still very exciting. The best first-round match, I think, is Marcos Baghdatis versus the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen. Baggy did not live up to his talent last year, so maybe he can turn things around in 2009. A solid start against a solid player like Jarkko is one way to get that off on the right foot. You've also got Stepanek, Soderling, and Gasquet, who are all contenders. But the real force in this half is JW Tsonga, the number two seed. I'm sure everyone would love to see another Tsonga-Djokovic match-up in the final. After Djoko won their first meeting in the AO final last year, Tsonga has won their next three meetings. There may be a rivalry developing here.

The Chennai event might seem less exciting, as it has a higher proportion of rising stars who haven't made their mark yet or tour veterans whose best days may be behind them. Top seed Davydenko really should come through this with no trouble, but there are some players who might upset Kolya. He should at least get to the quarters (H.T. Lee can come up with some good matches, but the Korean just turned 33) but at that point, he may find Marin Cilic, Dudi Sela, or Janko Tipsarevic waiting for him.

I like Ivo Karlovic in the bottom half, (there could be a second round Ivo v. Ivo match between Karlovic and Minar) but Carlos Moya is 4-0 against the ace machine. It will also be interesting to see if Stanislas Wawrinka and Rainier Schuettler can get their games back. Both had spectacular runs in the middle of 2008 (Schuettler's took him to the semifinals at Wimbledon) but had trouble the rest of the year. The Swiss #2 ended the year by losing his last four matches, and Schuettler went on an eight match losing streak between January and May. Any of those seeds could come out of the bottom half.

The real drama should take place in Doha this week. There aren't that many intriguing first round matches, but Nadal-Santoro should be fun. I'm glad to see the magician has decided not to retire, yet. Youzhny-Andreev could also be a close one. I'd like to see Youzhny have a more solid 2009 than he did in 2008, even though he was an infamous YouTube star.

If everything goes with the seeds, and it probably should - the only other possible spoiler I see is young Viktor Troicki - then we'll have a Nadal-Monfils, Roddick-Andreev, Tursunov-Murray, and Kohlschreiber-Federer quarterfinal round. Then, potentially, a Roddick-Nadal and Murray-Federer (Round 7!) semis. Whoever can make it through this field is going to have the biggest boost to start their season. I like Murray, honestly, since he beat the the top two players in the world last week at Abu Dhabi. Could this be the Scot's year?