The last week of tennis actually turned out to be pretty exciting - I'm sorry I wasn't around to cover it more while it was actually going on. I'll do a quick recap, though.
In Thailand, it looked like things were going to be pretty boring. All of the top contenders dropped, one by one. Verdasco looked sluggish in his loss to Benjamin Becker, as did Gulbis to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Del Potro and Melzer were beaten by players who had great days, Olivier Rochus and Jarkko Nieminen, in particular. Nieminen had also beaten Viktor Troicki, which is a pretty good pair of scalps for the top Finn. With all of these guys gone, it looked like Rafael Nadal would cruise to the title. He was the only seed to make the semifinals, after all.
But then something unusual happened. In his match against fellow Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Nadal managed to do something I've never seen anyone do, much less him. He lost 24 of 26 break point chances in the match. Garcia-Lopez won the second set in the tiebreak and managed one break in the third set to take the match. It was a pretty stunning performance from Garcia-Lopez, who followed it up with a win over Jarkko Nieminen in the final. He had a great week as well, but Guillermo was riding high after that incredibly gutsy performance against Nadal. This was a great week for these two vets, who between the two of them beat five of the eight seeds in the draw. Both of them jump into the top 50 in the rankings this week, as well.
In Malaysia, there were quite a few stories to pay attention to over the course of the week. Davydenko's slide continues while another Russian is finally back on the rise when Nikolay lost in his first match to Igor Andreev. Andreev also beat one of the other interesting stories of the tournament, as young Canadian player beat Sergiy Stakhovsky in the second round before he went out. Keep an eye out for Raonic. Andreev eventually lost to a third Russian, Mikhail Youzhny - and I predict that he's going to be the top Russian player in the game, in not too long. The best match on that side of the draw was Youzhny over Baghdatis, which went for two close sets before the Russian closed out the Cypriot with relative ease in the third.
On the other side of the draw, the best match-up was between David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych, which also went three sets, and the eventual winner (Ferrer) had to come back from a set down to do it. But while Youzhny was able to build on his win, the Spaniard seemed to be tired from his tough victory over this year's Wimbledon finalist, and he fell to Andrey Golubev. Now Golubev had just notched an impressive win over top seed Robin Soderling. The Kazakh player actually won nine sets in a row before Youzhny came back in the final and beat him in a third-set tiebreak. Despite not quite being able to close the deal, this was a great week for Golubev. I love his game, and I think we'll see him in the top ten at some point soon. And credit to Youzhny as well. Great performances from both guys.
Meanwhile, we're getting closer to the mandatory Masters event in Shanghai, so the tournament draws are getting more and more stacked in preparation. The two 500 events taking place this week in Beijing and Tokyo have 18 of the world's top 20 players in action. The only two missing are both Swiss: Federer and Wawrinka. In Japan, Nadal is the top seed, but the rest of the draw is not as strong. In China, we have seven of the world's top ten players, which is just unbelievable. I'll look at the Tokyo draw, first.
In addition to Nadal's presence, the other noteworthy thing about this tournament is that it marks JW Tsonga's return to action and will be his first tournament played since Wimbledon. He has a tough opening round against last week's finalist in Thailand, Jarkko Nieminen, but that's far from the best opening match-up you'll see thsi week. Eighth-seeded Michael Llodra gets Marco Chiudinelli (ironically, the top Swiss player in action this week), Viktor Troicki plays home-town hope Kei Nishikori, Ernests Gulbis gets former top-tenner Dmitry Tursunov, Richard Gasquet plays Thiemo de Bakker, and Juan Martin Del Potro gets Feliciano Lopez! That match is actually in progress now, and I am upset that I can't find any streaming coverage of it.
Looking ahead a bit, Nadal could get Milos Raonic in the second round, which could be interesting. If Nishikori wins his first round, he could play Jurgen Melzer next, which is a stern challenge for the Japanese 20-year old. It would be great to see Michael Llodra play Radek Stepanek in the second round, as these guys are two fun, veteran players who love to serve and volley. That would be like old-school tennis! Also keep an eye out for a potential match-up between Roddick and Monfils. There are a lot of players who can make noise in this draw, so it's tough to know just how it will shake out. Roddick needs a good run, to try to get his year back on track and finish strong. He said he's 100% healthy again, which is what he'll need to be against this level of competition.
But that group of first-round match-ups is nothing compared to the smorgasbord you'll find in Beijing. Here's the first-round matches I find particularly exciting: Fish-Tipsarev, Querrey-Simon, Cilic-Bellucci, Kohlschreiber-Verdasco, Istomin-Ferrer, Soderling-Robredo, Ljubicic-Youzhny, and Dolgopolov-Baghdatis. I mean, are you kidding? That's an all-star line-up of top players for a 32-player draw. And by the second round, the possibilities are just too numerous to mention. Suffice it to say I'll be watching this tournament with a great deal of excitement.
We'll see what the week brings! It's getting pretty late in the year, and only three of the top eight players have sealed their passage into the year-end tournament. The race is getting tight, now.
Showing posts with label youzhny. Show all posts
Showing posts with label youzhny. Show all posts
Monday, October 4, 2010
Sunday, September 12, 2010
US Open - Super Saturday
In just the three matches we had today, the full gamut of tennis competitiveness was on display. We had one match which was a complete fiasco, in which one of the players didn't even show up mentally and was never even on the same court as the eventual winner. We had one match where it was a tightly-contested affair, with both players achieving a good level of tennis, but one was simply the better player today, and despite some moments of brief tension, the outcome was never really in doubt. And we had one match that was utterly topsy-turvy, but when it all came together near the end, both players reached an astonishing level of play, and it wasn't clear until the last point was played just who was going to come away with the victory. It was without question a classic match, one of the best of this year's Open, if not the entire year.
Of course, the first refers to the women's final, where Vera Zvonareva managed to be as much of a headcase as she'd been in the past. Credit to her for getting this far, but she really couldn't hold herself together in the pressure of the final, unfortunately. Kim Clijsters played good tennis, with a 17-15 winner to unforced error ratio, but her opponent was at a mere 6-24. It's a shame for Vera, who played unbelievably well to get her, to stumble at this stage once again. There must be something wrong with the Russian tennis development system to produce players with so much skill who have so many problems in situations like these. Dinara Safina, anyone?
The second was the contest between Mikhail Youzhny and Rafael Nadal. The Russian didn't play bad tennis by any means. He played a strong match, considering how much he had to play recently, compared to how fresh Nadal must have been. But Youzhny just didn't have the game to handle Nadal today. He managed one short-lived, last-minute surge of great play to break Nadal in the third set, but was quickly broken back and lost the match. No shame in that, he was just beaten by the better player - short of breaking Rafa's knee with his racket, I don't know what Youzhny could have done out there today.
The third match was a great one. I don't think it was a match for the ages - any match where one of the players loses sets 6-1 and 6-2 could have been a lot closer and more even throughout, but the fifth set was one of the best moments of the Open this year. Federer made a big push at just the moment that you thought he would, having essentially given away the fourth set - while Novak was serving to stay in the match. He got up 15-40, giving himself a pair of match points. Despite having some rough patches of play, it looked like Federer was going to close it out and face Nadal in the final. Everything was going according to the script.
But apparently, Djokovic hadn't read it. Down two match points, he blasted three straight winners - and not just winners, but stone-cold winners, blasted at ridiculous velocity passed a stunned Federer. To make those shots under any circumstances would have been impressive, but to make them down match point in the semifinal of a grand slam against Roger Federer - that's just sick. And Djokovic was apparently so pumped up by it that he was able to break Federer in the next game and serve out the match. Really stunning display by Novak, who hasn't had a performance even close to this one since winning the Aussie Open back in 2008.
That said, I would be shocked if Djokovic can beat Nadal in tomorrow's final. After the monumental effort he had to put forth in the semis, he still gets to play the world's top player with essentially no rest. Nadal still hasn't lost a set and has had a pretty clear path to the final. He'll be fresh and eager to put his stamp on history, and a physically and mentally exhausted Djokovic is exactly who he'll hope to see on the other side of the net. Nadal won't go on walkabout for a set or two at a time the way Federer did. He won't spray his forehand all over the place deep in the fifth set - or any set, for that matter.
It would be one of the greatest performances in tennis history if Djokovic could come back from this and beat Federer tomorrow. I don't see it happening.
Of course, the first refers to the women's final, where Vera Zvonareva managed to be as much of a headcase as she'd been in the past. Credit to her for getting this far, but she really couldn't hold herself together in the pressure of the final, unfortunately. Kim Clijsters played good tennis, with a 17-15 winner to unforced error ratio, but her opponent was at a mere 6-24. It's a shame for Vera, who played unbelievably well to get her, to stumble at this stage once again. There must be something wrong with the Russian tennis development system to produce players with so much skill who have so many problems in situations like these. Dinara Safina, anyone?
The second was the contest between Mikhail Youzhny and Rafael Nadal. The Russian didn't play bad tennis by any means. He played a strong match, considering how much he had to play recently, compared to how fresh Nadal must have been. But Youzhny just didn't have the game to handle Nadal today. He managed one short-lived, last-minute surge of great play to break Nadal in the third set, but was quickly broken back and lost the match. No shame in that, he was just beaten by the better player - short of breaking Rafa's knee with his racket, I don't know what Youzhny could have done out there today.
The third match was a great one. I don't think it was a match for the ages - any match where one of the players loses sets 6-1 and 6-2 could have been a lot closer and more even throughout, but the fifth set was one of the best moments of the Open this year. Federer made a big push at just the moment that you thought he would, having essentially given away the fourth set - while Novak was serving to stay in the match. He got up 15-40, giving himself a pair of match points. Despite having some rough patches of play, it looked like Federer was going to close it out and face Nadal in the final. Everything was going according to the script.
But apparently, Djokovic hadn't read it. Down two match points, he blasted three straight winners - and not just winners, but stone-cold winners, blasted at ridiculous velocity passed a stunned Federer. To make those shots under any circumstances would have been impressive, but to make them down match point in the semifinal of a grand slam against Roger Federer - that's just sick. And Djokovic was apparently so pumped up by it that he was able to break Federer in the next game and serve out the match. Really stunning display by Novak, who hasn't had a performance even close to this one since winning the Aussie Open back in 2008.
That said, I would be shocked if Djokovic can beat Nadal in tomorrow's final. After the monumental effort he had to put forth in the semis, he still gets to play the world's top player with essentially no rest. Nadal still hasn't lost a set and has had a pretty clear path to the final. He'll be fresh and eager to put his stamp on history, and a physically and mentally exhausted Djokovic is exactly who he'll hope to see on the other side of the net. Nadal won't go on walkabout for a set or two at a time the way Federer did. He won't spray his forehand all over the place deep in the fifth set - or any set, for that matter.
It would be one of the greatest performances in tennis history if Djokovic could come back from this and beat Federer tomorrow. I don't see it happening.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
US Open Day 12
The women's semifinals took place today, and they were pretty surprising. Three of the four players were shaky and off their game today - and the one who wasn't was Vera Zvonareva. Top seed Caroline Wozniacki played her first shaky match of the tournament, and the Russian was there to capitalize. Credit to Vera, who played a very strong, solid match from a player who hasn't been known for her consistency in the past, but Wozniacki was strangely not present today. For somebody who has played so solid from day one against some very tough opponents in an array of conditions, I'm not sure what it was that got to her today. But Zvonareva has emerged as one of the best stories of the tournament, since she's made consecutive grand slam finals and has emerged as the Russian. No small feat for a player who was bawling on the court last year, tearing off her own leg strappings after missing six match points against Flavia Pennetta.
And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.
Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.
As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.
The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.
Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!
And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.
Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.
As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.
The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.
Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!
Monday, May 10, 2010
Week 18 Review and Madrid Preview
All three of the men's ATP finals which took place today were good matches. All three went through three tight sets, and it was a question about who was going to take the title in all three matches until the very end.
The all-American showdown in Belgrade was probably the most exciting, because Isner was actually up a set and a break, serving at 5-3 in the second set, and even had a match point on serve. You've got to give that to someone who serves as big as Isner, almost every time. But Isner cracked under the pressure, lost the second set in a tiebreak, and then lost the third set by a single break. Querrey was just a bit more solid, in the final summation.
The same could be said for the other two winners. Frederico Gil looked to be down and out, when Albert Montanes ran away with the first set and looked ready to win the second. But he snuck out a victory in the tiebreak and then broke to start the third. Gil was unable to become the first Portuguese player to win an ATP tournament, as Montanes won the third set 7-5. Shame for the hometown boy. Cilic-Youzhny was not quite as topsy-turvy. The Russian seemed to be the stronger throughout most of the match, and he came out on top in the end. Really good day of tennis.
Looking ahead to Madrid, you've got nine of the top twelve players appearing. Del Potro and Davydenko are still out with injury, while Djokovic is suffering from an illness and/or allergies. Still, it's a pretty stacked field.
Roger Federer has had an abysmal season, after his win at the Australian Open. His inability to even take the title in Estoril of all places, losing to the 31st-ranked Montanes in the semifinals. With that in mind, he has to be both anxious for a win here in Madrid, but also something of a long shot, considering his current form.
And the draw he got is not doing him any favors. After a first-round bye, he'll face either Benjamin Becker or wildcard and former French Open champion Carlos Moya. After that, it's likely that he'll get Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka, who beat him on clay last year. And no matter who his quarterfinal opponent might be, it's going to be a bear of a match. He could face Youzhny, Gulbis, Montanes, or Andy Roddick. Gulbis-Montanes is one of the great opening round matches, but to have three players in this section of the draw coming in with winning streaks, and then the hottest young player on the tour, all in the same group, could spell trouble for Roger.
The second quarter of the draw has Andy Murray as the top seed, who hasn't had a much better season, post-Aussie Open. His section of the draw is mildly less brutal, but it's still no cakewalk. He may open against Cuevas or Chela, two clay-court stalwarts, and then potentially Sam Querrey, who just bagged his first title on clay. He could also get either Igor Andreev or Victor Hanescu in the third round. And then, in the quarterfinals, he may get either Cilic or Ferrer. The outside possibilities for his quarterfinal opponent include the third Swiss player in the draw, Marco Chiudinelli, or his first-round opponent Marcos Baghdatis. That's another cracker of a match tomorrow.
Because the second, fifth, and sixth-ranked players are out of the tournament, the fourth seed here this week is Robin Soderling, who has a quarter all to himself. So far, he hasn't shown the kind of form he would need to get back to the French Open final again. His nemesis so far this year, Fernando Verdasco, is also slated to be his quarterfinal opponent. But before he even gets there, he'll have to win against either Nicolas Almagro or Viktor Troicki, and then Juan Monaco or Tomaz Bellucci. That's almost as close to a group of clay-court ringers as you could get. And the wildcard in this section of the draw is David Nalbandian, who opens against the tall Czech Tomas Berdych. That is my pick for the best first-round match, by the way. And Verdasco has to face Ivo Karlovic in his first match. Almost anyone could find their way out of his quarter.
Because of Djokovic's absence, Nadal is back to his usual place as the second seed. And not only is he the favorite to win the tournament, he's also been gifted the best draw. He'll probably open against perennial underachiever Andreas Seppi, after which he may get John Isner or Phillip Kohlschreiber. No threats so far. His quartefinal opponent is likely to be Tsonga, who he beat without too much trouble early in the year. Gael Monfils is also in that section, but he hasn't played in so long, who knows how his form will be this week.
Except for Nadal, it's tough for me to see any of the other top four seeds making it to the semifinals. So this tournament is pretty wide open, in terms of getting to face Nadal. I don't know who's going to be able to beat him. It's always a possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point, unless you just like really long odds.
The all-American showdown in Belgrade was probably the most exciting, because Isner was actually up a set and a break, serving at 5-3 in the second set, and even had a match point on serve. You've got to give that to someone who serves as big as Isner, almost every time. But Isner cracked under the pressure, lost the second set in a tiebreak, and then lost the third set by a single break. Querrey was just a bit more solid, in the final summation.
The same could be said for the other two winners. Frederico Gil looked to be down and out, when Albert Montanes ran away with the first set and looked ready to win the second. But he snuck out a victory in the tiebreak and then broke to start the third. Gil was unable to become the first Portuguese player to win an ATP tournament, as Montanes won the third set 7-5. Shame for the hometown boy. Cilic-Youzhny was not quite as topsy-turvy. The Russian seemed to be the stronger throughout most of the match, and he came out on top in the end. Really good day of tennis.
Looking ahead to Madrid, you've got nine of the top twelve players appearing. Del Potro and Davydenko are still out with injury, while Djokovic is suffering from an illness and/or allergies. Still, it's a pretty stacked field.
Roger Federer has had an abysmal season, after his win at the Australian Open. His inability to even take the title in Estoril of all places, losing to the 31st-ranked Montanes in the semifinals. With that in mind, he has to be both anxious for a win here in Madrid, but also something of a long shot, considering his current form.
And the draw he got is not doing him any favors. After a first-round bye, he'll face either Benjamin Becker or wildcard and former French Open champion Carlos Moya. After that, it's likely that he'll get Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka, who beat him on clay last year. And no matter who his quarterfinal opponent might be, it's going to be a bear of a match. He could face Youzhny, Gulbis, Montanes, or Andy Roddick. Gulbis-Montanes is one of the great opening round matches, but to have three players in this section of the draw coming in with winning streaks, and then the hottest young player on the tour, all in the same group, could spell trouble for Roger.
The second quarter of the draw has Andy Murray as the top seed, who hasn't had a much better season, post-Aussie Open. His section of the draw is mildly less brutal, but it's still no cakewalk. He may open against Cuevas or Chela, two clay-court stalwarts, and then potentially Sam Querrey, who just bagged his first title on clay. He could also get either Igor Andreev or Victor Hanescu in the third round. And then, in the quarterfinals, he may get either Cilic or Ferrer. The outside possibilities for his quarterfinal opponent include the third Swiss player in the draw, Marco Chiudinelli, or his first-round opponent Marcos Baghdatis. That's another cracker of a match tomorrow.
Because the second, fifth, and sixth-ranked players are out of the tournament, the fourth seed here this week is Robin Soderling, who has a quarter all to himself. So far, he hasn't shown the kind of form he would need to get back to the French Open final again. His nemesis so far this year, Fernando Verdasco, is also slated to be his quarterfinal opponent. But before he even gets there, he'll have to win against either Nicolas Almagro or Viktor Troicki, and then Juan Monaco or Tomaz Bellucci. That's almost as close to a group of clay-court ringers as you could get. And the wildcard in this section of the draw is David Nalbandian, who opens against the tall Czech Tomas Berdych. That is my pick for the best first-round match, by the way. And Verdasco has to face Ivo Karlovic in his first match. Almost anyone could find their way out of his quarter.
Because of Djokovic's absence, Nadal is back to his usual place as the second seed. And not only is he the favorite to win the tournament, he's also been gifted the best draw. He'll probably open against perennial underachiever Andreas Seppi, after which he may get John Isner or Phillip Kohlschreiber. No threats so far. His quartefinal opponent is likely to be Tsonga, who he beat without too much trouble early in the year. Gael Monfils is also in that section, but he hasn't played in so long, who knows how his form will be this week.
Except for Nadal, it's tough for me to see any of the other top four seeds making it to the semifinals. So this tournament is pretty wide open, in terms of getting to face Nadal. I don't know who's going to be able to beat him. It's always a possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point, unless you just like really long odds.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Monte Carlo Day 3
It's Wednesday in Monte Carlo, and that means that the rest of the second-round matches will be underway. Finally, we'll see how the top seeds are ready to adjust to the European clay-court swing. Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray are all in action tomorrow, and realistically, none of them should be tested in any of their matches. Murray may face the toughest test in German Phillipp Kohlschreiber, but if he can't handle the German on clay in the second round at Monte Carlo, then he can't expect to be a force on this surface for a while. That's the most interesting match among the top guys, to see what kind of form the Scot is in. Has he gotten over the loss to Federer at the Aussie Open? Roddick was basically out of action for the rest of the year, once he lost Wimbledon, so Murray may have to wait a bit to get his head back in the game, yet.
But that's not to say that the other top players should have no trouble at all. Djokovic, despite his relatively easy first match against Florent Serra, is struggling with his game, after a pair of lackluster performances at the last two Masters Series tournaments. He's been having trouble with his game, he's been mentally drained since his two wins against the US in Davis Cup, and he just fired his coach Todd Martin. He needs to get his serve back together, and he needs to cut out the unforced errors. We'll see if he's back on track.
For Nadal, the problem isn't mental. It will be interesting to see if he's back at his physical best. Clay is his surface, and he has a lot of points to defend for the next few months. How are his knees? How's his movement? Will he be as fast as he's been in the past? His first match should be a good test, as Thiemo De Bakker may not have a lot of experience at tour level, but he has four Challenger titles, all on clay. So he knows how to play on crushed brick. A handful of Challenger titles isn't enough to really unseat the king of clay, though, so I expect Nadal to come through. It will all depend on how cleanly he can make it through the match, to gauge how well he's playing, now that he's back at home and should be finding the ball in his wheelhouse, more often than not.
There are a couple other matches of interest taking place tomorrow, with four players who could make a run at this tournament. Ernests Gulbis is playing Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who followed up his victory in last week's final against Victor Hanescu by beating him again in the first round here. Gulbis made his debut a couple years ago at the French Open, so both of these guys can play some dirtball. I'm anxious to see how this one turns out. Gulbis looked like he might be ready to reach the next level when he won his first title on U.S. hard courts, but he was mostly AWOL during the two Masters Series there. We'll see if he can do better here.
The other match to keep an eye on is Mikhail Youzhny against David Nalbandian. Nalbandian is still on the comeback trail, but he hasn't been gifted any particularly fortunate draws up to this point. This tournament might be his best chance to get back to a quarterfinal, if he can play close to the level of his former best. But he's up against another relative veteran, who's been playing some much better ball as of late. Youzhny is near his career high ranking, but these two have never met on clay, so this could be an interesting match to see if Nalbandian is a player who might still have some good tennis ahead of him, or if his surgery and layoff was just too much to recover from.
But that's not to say that the other top players should have no trouble at all. Djokovic, despite his relatively easy first match against Florent Serra, is struggling with his game, after a pair of lackluster performances at the last two Masters Series tournaments. He's been having trouble with his game, he's been mentally drained since his two wins against the US in Davis Cup, and he just fired his coach Todd Martin. He needs to get his serve back together, and he needs to cut out the unforced errors. We'll see if he's back on track.
For Nadal, the problem isn't mental. It will be interesting to see if he's back at his physical best. Clay is his surface, and he has a lot of points to defend for the next few months. How are his knees? How's his movement? Will he be as fast as he's been in the past? His first match should be a good test, as Thiemo De Bakker may not have a lot of experience at tour level, but he has four Challenger titles, all on clay. So he knows how to play on crushed brick. A handful of Challenger titles isn't enough to really unseat the king of clay, though, so I expect Nadal to come through. It will all depend on how cleanly he can make it through the match, to gauge how well he's playing, now that he's back at home and should be finding the ball in his wheelhouse, more often than not.
There are a couple other matches of interest taking place tomorrow, with four players who could make a run at this tournament. Ernests Gulbis is playing Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who followed up his victory in last week's final against Victor Hanescu by beating him again in the first round here. Gulbis made his debut a couple years ago at the French Open, so both of these guys can play some dirtball. I'm anxious to see how this one turns out. Gulbis looked like he might be ready to reach the next level when he won his first title on U.S. hard courts, but he was mostly AWOL during the two Masters Series there. We'll see if he can do better here.
The other match to keep an eye on is Mikhail Youzhny against David Nalbandian. Nalbandian is still on the comeback trail, but he hasn't been gifted any particularly fortunate draws up to this point. This tournament might be his best chance to get back to a quarterfinal, if he can play close to the level of his former best. But he's up against another relative veteran, who's been playing some much better ball as of late. Youzhny is near his career high ranking, but these two have never met on clay, so this could be an interesting match to see if Nalbandian is a player who might still have some good tennis ahead of him, or if his surgery and layoff was just too much to recover from.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Miami Quarterfinals - Day 2
One of the men's semifinals is set, and it was the one that everyone expected after Novak Djokovic lost in the second round to Olivier Rochus. Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal both breezed through their quarterfinal matches against potentially dangerous, big-hitting opponents. Roddick and Nadal were both just more solid than their opponents on the big points. Roddick broke Almagro three times and Nadal broke Tsonga four, while neither was broken. Tsonga had more chances against Nadal, so he'll feel like he had more of an opportunity. After going 0 for 8 as Tsonga did, Almagro can't feel too bad about missing both of his chances.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Week 8 Review
With another week of tennis in the bag, we had one new titlist and a pair of matches that had just taken place a week before, with the results switched. This next week is a short week, with only Davis Cup taking place on the men's side, so I'll have some other things to talk about in the next few days. But first, to look back on the previous week.
The final in Acapulco was perhaps the most exciting, as it was a rematch of last week's final in Buenos Aires, which the elder Spaniard had won in three, despite a pretty bad head-to-head against his opponent. Ferrer was denied his first title since 2008 in Argentina, but he would not be denied again in Mexico, which would be his last chance on clay for a month. But ultimate, Ferrero was just too tired from having won 14 straight matches, and wilted in the third set to go down 1-6. After his run, Ferrero's ranking is up to 14, his highest since 2004. Both Spaniards should be excited for the European Clay Court swing in April.
In Dubai, we also had a repeat match in the final, with Youzhny against Djokovic. They had played in last week's semis in Rotterdam, with the Russian eking out a win in two tiebreak sets. He then went on to retire against Soderling in the final, so it may be surprising that he was able to make a sustained run to the finals again this week in Dubai. He didn't look like he was going to be able to mount the same kind of resistance though, going down a set and a break in short order before heavy rain began to fall and the match was delayed until the following day. He staged a comeback, winning the second set 7-5, but still lost in three. Youzhny is now 5-9 in career finals, while Djokovic is 17-11. It's pretty clear which record you would prefer. Both players should be eager for the upcoming pair of hard court Masters Series events.
But the most exciting final of the weekend was a first-time match-up between Ivo Karlovic (who turned 31 on the day of the match) in his first final since 2008, and Ernests Gulbis, in his first final since, well, ever. Gulbis, for those who don't know, has been a very highly-touted player for several years, with an enormous amount of talent but maybe not the dedication to win. This is not only his first title, but it's his first ATP final. Karlovic didn't play his best today, but Gulbis played the way people have thought he was capable for quite a while. He broke one of the best servers in the game five times in nine service games.
The question will be whether this was the first step in a real emergence, or whether it was a fluke, somewhat like his quarterfinal run at the French Open in 2008. He'll have a week to digest his victory and then see if he can make a dent at Indian Wells or Miami. But there's really no reason for him not to make it to the top 20.
This was also a good week for the Bryan brothers, who won their 600th match as a doubles pair and won the title in Del Ray. This should help them on their way to the Davis Cup match in Serbia, but unfortunately, their compatriots did not do terribly well in Mexico. Querrey and Isner failed to win a match, but at least that gave them plenty of time to get to the new courts and get used to the conditions. They can only hope that Djokovic will be a bit tired from winning the tournament.
I'll have a full Davis Cup preview before the thing starts up on Friday, and I hope to have some other things up in the meantime.
The final in Acapulco was perhaps the most exciting, as it was a rematch of last week's final in Buenos Aires, which the elder Spaniard had won in three, despite a pretty bad head-to-head against his opponent. Ferrer was denied his first title since 2008 in Argentina, but he would not be denied again in Mexico, which would be his last chance on clay for a month. But ultimate, Ferrero was just too tired from having won 14 straight matches, and wilted in the third set to go down 1-6. After his run, Ferrero's ranking is up to 14, his highest since 2004. Both Spaniards should be excited for the European Clay Court swing in April.
In Dubai, we also had a repeat match in the final, with Youzhny against Djokovic. They had played in last week's semis in Rotterdam, with the Russian eking out a win in two tiebreak sets. He then went on to retire against Soderling in the final, so it may be surprising that he was able to make a sustained run to the finals again this week in Dubai. He didn't look like he was going to be able to mount the same kind of resistance though, going down a set and a break in short order before heavy rain began to fall and the match was delayed until the following day. He staged a comeback, winning the second set 7-5, but still lost in three. Youzhny is now 5-9 in career finals, while Djokovic is 17-11. It's pretty clear which record you would prefer. Both players should be eager for the upcoming pair of hard court Masters Series events.
But the most exciting final of the weekend was a first-time match-up between Ivo Karlovic (who turned 31 on the day of the match) in his first final since 2008, and Ernests Gulbis, in his first final since, well, ever. Gulbis, for those who don't know, has been a very highly-touted player for several years, with an enormous amount of talent but maybe not the dedication to win. This is not only his first title, but it's his first ATP final. Karlovic didn't play his best today, but Gulbis played the way people have thought he was capable for quite a while. He broke one of the best servers in the game five times in nine service games.
The question will be whether this was the first step in a real emergence, or whether it was a fluke, somewhat like his quarterfinal run at the French Open in 2008. He'll have a week to digest his victory and then see if he can make a dent at Indian Wells or Miami. But there's really no reason for him not to make it to the top 20.
This was also a good week for the Bryan brothers, who won their 600th match as a doubles pair and won the title in Del Ray. This should help them on their way to the Davis Cup match in Serbia, but unfortunately, their compatriots did not do terribly well in Mexico. Querrey and Isner failed to win a match, but at least that gave them plenty of time to get to the new courts and get used to the conditions. They can only hope that Djokovic will be a bit tired from winning the tournament.
I'll have a full Davis Cup preview before the thing starts up on Friday, and I hope to have some other things up in the meantime.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Week 8 Mid-week Update
In two of the three tournaments going on this week, the majority of the top players have been upset. Not quite what the promoters were hoping for when only three or four seeds even make it to the quarterfinals, which was the case in both Dubai and Del Ray Beach.
In Dubai, which is probably the richest non-Masters Series event on tour, Novak Djokovic was the only top 10 player to make the semifinals. He barely did, dropping the first set in his quarterfinal match-up against Ivan Ljubicic and then squeaking out the second set before bulldozing his way through the third. Ljubicic had already beaten Tsonga, who appeared to be struggling with some injury problems. Davydenko was similarly hobbled, forced to retire against Michael Berrer with a bad left wrist.
Andy Murray had lost in the second round to an inspired Janko Tipsarevic, who then couldn't put it together the next day and lost to Youzhny in straight sets. Youzhny probably was expected to face Marin Cilic, one of the hottest players on tour, but he too was felled to Jurgen Melzer, who was having a spectacular day. The final quarterfinalist is Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Berrer in the quarters.
If Djokovic wasn't still in the tournament (and if he doesn't make it to the final) the organizers and tennis fans who paid to see the top tier of the game is going to be disappointed. He really should walk away with this one, though. Youzhny, Russia's number two, is looking like he's ready for an assault on the top ten once more. Good to see him back at the top of his game. And Baghdatis, too. Both of these guys were about four places lower in the rankings a year ago, so I'm glad to see them improving.
Things are also fairly topsy-turvy in Del Ray, although in this case I imagine that the organizers are pretty happy with the surprises left in the draw. With the weather, not so much. The week has been rain-soaked and it's been difficult to get in any continuous play, but at the quarterfinal stage, there are two Americans left, and that's something. Mardy Fish and James Blake are still standing, and they'll each have tough but winnable matches tomorrow. Fish goes up against Jeremy Chardy, who is a big hitter but has been having a terrible year, and Blake takes on Ivo Karlovic.
If the weather continues to be muggy, it should slow down Karlovic's serve and give Blake a better chance of blocking some returns back, and should also give him time to wind up on his forehand. In any case, this match will feature a ton of aces for the big man, because Blake goes for as much off the return as anyone, and ends up getting aced a lot. Except for their very first meeting, Karlovic has never hit fewer than 22 aces against Blake.
The top half of the draw features a handful of players who would each be lucky to make it to the final. Ernests Gulbis beat the player who knocked out top seed Tommy Haas, Benjamin Becker got a walkover from Wayne Odesnik, Leonardo won the battle of the Mayers against Florian, and Jarkko Nieminen absolutely ran away with the match after losing the first set to Evgeny Korolev. It's a pick-em, up here. Whoever can come out on top from this four will really get a boost, both in terms of ranking and momentum.
The only place where sanity seems to have reigned is in Acapulco, where all of the semifinalists are clay-court players that you might expect to see in this situation. Juan Monaco ousted top seed Fernando Verdasco, who despite being Spanish is not the greatest clay-courter around. Ferrero continued his ridiculous run, beating twice-defending champ Nicolas Almagro. His winning streak is now 13 matches long, which is by far the longest on tour at the moment. Monaco is a tough competitor, but unless Ferrero's 30-year old body is starting to get tired, it's not easy to see him beating this Spaniard, who is right at home on clay.
The bottom half of the draw has an equally appetizing semifinal, which features David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. It's a match-up of a big, big hitter and a big returner, so it'll be interesting to see if Gonzo can hit his spots better than Ferrer can run them down.
It's also worth noting that in Acapulco, defending champ and top seed Venus Williams recovered from from being down 5-3 in the third set against 25-year old Spanish qualifier Laura Pous Tio, who is ranked 399 in the world, to win the set and the match 7-5. Gutsy save from the elder Williams. After making it through that tough match, can she go on to defend her second title consecutively?
In Dubai, which is probably the richest non-Masters Series event on tour, Novak Djokovic was the only top 10 player to make the semifinals. He barely did, dropping the first set in his quarterfinal match-up against Ivan Ljubicic and then squeaking out the second set before bulldozing his way through the third. Ljubicic had already beaten Tsonga, who appeared to be struggling with some injury problems. Davydenko was similarly hobbled, forced to retire against Michael Berrer with a bad left wrist.
Andy Murray had lost in the second round to an inspired Janko Tipsarevic, who then couldn't put it together the next day and lost to Youzhny in straight sets. Youzhny probably was expected to face Marin Cilic, one of the hottest players on tour, but he too was felled to Jurgen Melzer, who was having a spectacular day. The final quarterfinalist is Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Berrer in the quarters.
If Djokovic wasn't still in the tournament (and if he doesn't make it to the final) the organizers and tennis fans who paid to see the top tier of the game is going to be disappointed. He really should walk away with this one, though. Youzhny, Russia's number two, is looking like he's ready for an assault on the top ten once more. Good to see him back at the top of his game. And Baghdatis, too. Both of these guys were about four places lower in the rankings a year ago, so I'm glad to see them improving.
Things are also fairly topsy-turvy in Del Ray, although in this case I imagine that the organizers are pretty happy with the surprises left in the draw. With the weather, not so much. The week has been rain-soaked and it's been difficult to get in any continuous play, but at the quarterfinal stage, there are two Americans left, and that's something. Mardy Fish and James Blake are still standing, and they'll each have tough but winnable matches tomorrow. Fish goes up against Jeremy Chardy, who is a big hitter but has been having a terrible year, and Blake takes on Ivo Karlovic.
If the weather continues to be muggy, it should slow down Karlovic's serve and give Blake a better chance of blocking some returns back, and should also give him time to wind up on his forehand. In any case, this match will feature a ton of aces for the big man, because Blake goes for as much off the return as anyone, and ends up getting aced a lot. Except for their very first meeting, Karlovic has never hit fewer than 22 aces against Blake.
The top half of the draw features a handful of players who would each be lucky to make it to the final. Ernests Gulbis beat the player who knocked out top seed Tommy Haas, Benjamin Becker got a walkover from Wayne Odesnik, Leonardo won the battle of the Mayers against Florian, and Jarkko Nieminen absolutely ran away with the match after losing the first set to Evgeny Korolev. It's a pick-em, up here. Whoever can come out on top from this four will really get a boost, both in terms of ranking and momentum.
The only place where sanity seems to have reigned is in Acapulco, where all of the semifinalists are clay-court players that you might expect to see in this situation. Juan Monaco ousted top seed Fernando Verdasco, who despite being Spanish is not the greatest clay-courter around. Ferrero continued his ridiculous run, beating twice-defending champ Nicolas Almagro. His winning streak is now 13 matches long, which is by far the longest on tour at the moment. Monaco is a tough competitor, but unless Ferrero's 30-year old body is starting to get tired, it's not easy to see him beating this Spaniard, who is right at home on clay.
The bottom half of the draw has an equally appetizing semifinal, which features David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. It's a match-up of a big, big hitter and a big returner, so it'll be interesting to see if Gonzo can hit his spots better than Ferrer can run them down.
It's also worth noting that in Acapulco, defending champ and top seed Venus Williams recovered from from being down 5-3 in the third set against 25-year old Spanish qualifier Laura Pous Tio, who is ranked 399 in the world, to win the set and the match 7-5. Gutsy save from the elder Williams. After making it through that tough match, can she go on to defend her second title consecutively?
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
The AO's first casualty
Even though rain in Chennai prevented any matches from being played to completion, the top seed still managed to find his way out of the tournament: Davydenko pulled out with an injury to his heel, which also takes him out of the Australian Open. It's inevitable that somebody is going to be unable to play at each of these big tournaments, but Davydenko is such a decent, steady, fit guy that I'm surprised it's him. Here's hoping for a swift recovery.
While it rained in India, there was some very interesting play in Australia and Qatar. In Brisbane, Gulbis couldn't follow up on his victory over Djokovic, and lost to Paul-Henri Mathieu. Does that mean that Djoko's loss had more to do with Novak being rusty or with Gulbis not being mature enough to perform up to the same level after securing the biggest win of his career? Probably a bit of both.
Kei Nishikori continues to impress, beating fifth seed Tomas Berdych. Ancic fell to Verdasco, who was always the favorite, but I bet Ancic's marathon of a match yesterday didn't help his chances. Speaking of marathons, Tsonga had to win the second and third sets in tiebreaks after getting bageled in the first by Nieminen to avenge a loss that the Finn dealt the Frenchman almost exactly a year ago.
Tsonga will be rewarded with a day's rest and then a match against his countryman Richard Gasquet, who will have had two days off after a much-easier match against Taylor Dent. The pair are 2-2, and while Tsonga has been playing better tennis of late, I bet that Gasquet would like to remind French fans that he's still around. That one could be good.
But as for tomorrow in Brisbane, the headline match has to be Ana Ivanovic against Amelie Mauresmo, who both had tough three-set victories today. Mauresmo will have to return to her 2006 form to win this one. The Frenchwoman has been on the verge of retiring for quite a while, but it would be great to see her have a late-career resurgence.
The other highlight is to see if Kei Nishikori can continue to roll, as he comes up against the guy who beat the guy who beat Djokovic, P.H. Mathieu. I'd love to see the Japanese teen continue to win, but I figure that at some point, he's going to run into somebody with enough experience to stop him, and Mathieu may be just the veteran to do that. Also, keep an eye on doubles team Chris Guccione and Carsten Ball, who are (I believe) the only local players left in this Aussie tournament. Don't expect them to last long against top-seeded Mirnyi and Ram.
In Doha, things continue much as one might expect, but interesting clashes are coming up fast. Today, all the seeds won and Youzhny had his expected slump after beating Andreev yesterday, falling to Victor Hanescu. None of the matches in Qatar were terribly thrilling, although Kohlschreiber had to lose a second set tie-break before beating Kristof Vliegen in three. Here's hoping he keeps it close enough with Roger Federer to lose a tie-break.
Tomorrow, Roddick and Murray should both come through easily against Hanescu and Stakhovsky, respectively. Roddick in particular needs to get as much momentum as he can before the season's first major in two weeks. The real exciting match tomorrow is Nadal against Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has never beat the Spaniard, but Monfils is getting better and better, so this is probably the best shot he's had yet. Really, that ought to be headlining match tomorrow, but they had to put it at mid-day, so Rafa could have a little time to recover before he went back to play doubles against Santoro (who he's already beaten once) and Youzhny. Unless Monfils really tires him out, he should win that one, too.
In addition to Nadal, Tsonga is also still in both the singles and doubles draws, as are Verdasco, Tipsarevic, and Schuettler, thought some of them haven't even played a doubles match, yet. I'm pressed with these guys that can play singles and doubles and do well at both. The game is much more physical than it was in the 80's, when guys like McEnroe would win both the singles and doubles grand slam titles at the same tournament, multiple times.
We also have Ivo against Ivo to look forward to, but unfortunately, Aleksandra Wozniack lost before she could play Caroline Wozniacki. To have Ivo-Ivo and Wozniack-Wozniacki on the same day would have been just too good.
While it rained in India, there was some very interesting play in Australia and Qatar. In Brisbane, Gulbis couldn't follow up on his victory over Djokovic, and lost to Paul-Henri Mathieu. Does that mean that Djoko's loss had more to do with Novak being rusty or with Gulbis not being mature enough to perform up to the same level after securing the biggest win of his career? Probably a bit of both.
Kei Nishikori continues to impress, beating fifth seed Tomas Berdych. Ancic fell to Verdasco, who was always the favorite, but I bet Ancic's marathon of a match yesterday didn't help his chances. Speaking of marathons, Tsonga had to win the second and third sets in tiebreaks after getting bageled in the first by Nieminen to avenge a loss that the Finn dealt the Frenchman almost exactly a year ago.
Tsonga will be rewarded with a day's rest and then a match against his countryman Richard Gasquet, who will have had two days off after a much-easier match against Taylor Dent. The pair are 2-2, and while Tsonga has been playing better tennis of late, I bet that Gasquet would like to remind French fans that he's still around. That one could be good.
But as for tomorrow in Brisbane, the headline match has to be Ana Ivanovic against Amelie Mauresmo, who both had tough three-set victories today. Mauresmo will have to return to her 2006 form to win this one. The Frenchwoman has been on the verge of retiring for quite a while, but it would be great to see her have a late-career resurgence.
The other highlight is to see if Kei Nishikori can continue to roll, as he comes up against the guy who beat the guy who beat Djokovic, P.H. Mathieu. I'd love to see the Japanese teen continue to win, but I figure that at some point, he's going to run into somebody with enough experience to stop him, and Mathieu may be just the veteran to do that. Also, keep an eye on doubles team Chris Guccione and Carsten Ball, who are (I believe) the only local players left in this Aussie tournament. Don't expect them to last long against top-seeded Mirnyi and Ram.
In Doha, things continue much as one might expect, but interesting clashes are coming up fast. Today, all the seeds won and Youzhny had his expected slump after beating Andreev yesterday, falling to Victor Hanescu. None of the matches in Qatar were terribly thrilling, although Kohlschreiber had to lose a second set tie-break before beating Kristof Vliegen in three. Here's hoping he keeps it close enough with Roger Federer to lose a tie-break.
Tomorrow, Roddick and Murray should both come through easily against Hanescu and Stakhovsky, respectively. Roddick in particular needs to get as much momentum as he can before the season's first major in two weeks. The real exciting match tomorrow is Nadal against Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has never beat the Spaniard, but Monfils is getting better and better, so this is probably the best shot he's had yet. Really, that ought to be headlining match tomorrow, but they had to put it at mid-day, so Rafa could have a little time to recover before he went back to play doubles against Santoro (who he's already beaten once) and Youzhny. Unless Monfils really tires him out, he should win that one, too.
In addition to Nadal, Tsonga is also still in both the singles and doubles draws, as are Verdasco, Tipsarevic, and Schuettler, thought some of them haven't even played a doubles match, yet. I'm pressed with these guys that can play singles and doubles and do well at both. The game is much more physical than it was in the 80's, when guys like McEnroe would win both the singles and doubles grand slam titles at the same tournament, multiple times.
We also have Ivo against Ivo to look forward to, but unfortunately, Aleksandra Wozniack lost before she could play Caroline Wozniacki. To have Ivo-Ivo and Wozniack-Wozniacki on the same day would have been just too good.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
First big upset of the year!
Ah, it's only day two of 2009, and we've already hit a great match result. Remember when I said that there was an outside chance of Gulbis beating Djokovic in his season opener? Well, it looks like Djoko had some rust to shake off, and he didn't last long enough for the hard-hitting Latvian to start missing the lines. The match ended 6-4, 6-4 in an hour and a half. Expect more from me on Djokovic during the coming week. There's no question that it was a tough first round match, but it was one that Djoko should have won. Since he was the season-ending champion, it's a shame to start the season with a loss.
There were some other excellent results, but nothing quite as surprising. The other big upset was in Chennai, where Stan Wawrinka lost in straights 138th-ranked qualifier Flavio Cipolla. I don't know whether Stanislas is on a bad streak, or if his run into the top ten last year was the aberration. In Doha, Mikhail Youzhny also upset sixth-seeded Igor Andreev in three and qualifier Alexander Peya upset seventh-seeded Dmitri Tursunov.
But some of the sure bets turned out to be very, very sure. Even Rafael Nadal was surprised at how quickly he dispatched Fabrice "The Magician" Santoro (6-0, 6-1 48 minutes), and Federer beat Potito Starace almost as easily (6-2, 6-2 also in 48 minutes). Tsonga, Gasquet, Soderling, Murray, Kohlschreiber, Davydenko, Moya, and Tipsarevic were all seeds that made it through in straights.
From where I'm sitting, the best match of the day was "Super" Mario Ancic against American qualifier Amer Delic. 7-6 (2), 6-7 (4), 7-6 (6) in 2 hours, 51 minutes. No break points, each player had only three double-faults and more than twenty aces. Final point total - Mario Ancic up 128-123. Wish I could have seen it.
As for tomorrow, things are really starting to get interesting. Nishikori-Berdych, Stepanek-Llodra, Verdasco-Ancic, Nieminen-Tsonga, Gulbis-Mathieu, and Serra-Melzer. And that's just in Brisbane! It definitely had the deepest talent pool of any of this week's tournaments. Really, any of these players could come away with the title, but Tsonga is far and away the favorite. With Djokovic out, the top half is pretty open. I'd love to see Nishikori or Gulbis go all the way, but a more experienced player like Verdasco or Berdych (the only seeds left in that helf) are probably a safer bet.
In Chennai, the best match is Sela-Tipsarevic. I like Tipsy, but I wish he could always play at the level that had him draw Federer to five sets at the AO last year. For the other players in serious contention in India that are in action today (Cilic and Davydenko) it's just a matter of not slipping up. Tomorrow, we'll see Moya back in action, as well as the battle of the Ivos (Karlovic and Minar) that I predicted.
In Doha, it's still one more round before we get to any of the fun matches. Hopefully, none of the seeds are going to trip up - if all goes according to plan, then there are going to be fireworks when the quarters roll around. The closest thing to a close match is Roddick against Arnaud Clement. They've got a 2-2 record, but Clement hasn't won since 2002, and both of those wins were on clay. Youzhny and Hanescu are at 1-1, so that may be interesting. Youzhny also has a tendency to let up after a big win. Beyond that, I don't see much else to keep an eye on.
There were some other excellent results, but nothing quite as surprising. The other big upset was in Chennai, where Stan Wawrinka lost in straights 138th-ranked qualifier Flavio Cipolla. I don't know whether Stanislas is on a bad streak, or if his run into the top ten last year was the aberration. In Doha, Mikhail Youzhny also upset sixth-seeded Igor Andreev in three and qualifier Alexander Peya upset seventh-seeded Dmitri Tursunov.
But some of the sure bets turned out to be very, very sure. Even Rafael Nadal was surprised at how quickly he dispatched Fabrice "The Magician" Santoro (6-0, 6-1 48 minutes), and Federer beat Potito Starace almost as easily (6-2, 6-2 also in 48 minutes). Tsonga, Gasquet, Soderling, Murray, Kohlschreiber, Davydenko, Moya, and Tipsarevic were all seeds that made it through in straights.
From where I'm sitting, the best match of the day was "Super" Mario Ancic against American qualifier Amer Delic. 7-6 (2), 6-7 (4), 7-6 (6) in 2 hours, 51 minutes. No break points, each player had only three double-faults and more than twenty aces. Final point total - Mario Ancic up 128-123. Wish I could have seen it.
As for tomorrow, things are really starting to get interesting. Nishikori-Berdych, Stepanek-Llodra, Verdasco-Ancic, Nieminen-Tsonga, Gulbis-Mathieu, and Serra-Melzer. And that's just in Brisbane! It definitely had the deepest talent pool of any of this week's tournaments. Really, any of these players could come away with the title, but Tsonga is far and away the favorite. With Djokovic out, the top half is pretty open. I'd love to see Nishikori or Gulbis go all the way, but a more experienced player like Verdasco or Berdych (the only seeds left in that helf) are probably a safer bet.
In Chennai, the best match is Sela-Tipsarevic. I like Tipsy, but I wish he could always play at the level that had him draw Federer to five sets at the AO last year. For the other players in serious contention in India that are in action today (Cilic and Davydenko) it's just a matter of not slipping up. Tomorrow, we'll see Moya back in action, as well as the battle of the Ivos (Karlovic and Minar) that I predicted.
In Doha, it's still one more round before we get to any of the fun matches. Hopefully, none of the seeds are going to trip up - if all goes according to plan, then there are going to be fireworks when the quarters roll around. The closest thing to a close match is Roddick against Arnaud Clement. They've got a 2-2 record, but Clement hasn't won since 2002, and both of those wins were on clay. Youzhny and Hanescu are at 1-1, so that may be interesting. Youzhny also has a tendency to let up after a big win. Beyond that, I don't see much else to keep an eye on.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
First week of 2009 preview
Looking ahead to the first week of the tennis season proper, there are some very intriguing matches. It's time for some players to make a statement that they're here to stay or that they're still around. There isn't much time to build some momentum going into the first grand slam of the season, so players have to take every opportunity that they can.
The most interesting path that any particular player has in front of him is Novak Djokovic, the top seed in Brisbane. His first three matches could be against Ernests Gulbis, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and then Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. If he gets through that unscathed, he could face Verdasco, Ancic, Ferrero, or Mardy Fish in the semifinals. Since his season went longer than anyone else's, we'll see how he recovered in the short off-season.
The bottom half of the Brisbane draw isn't quite as stacked, but it's still very exciting. The best first-round match, I think, is Marcos Baghdatis versus the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen. Baggy did not live up to his talent last year, so maybe he can turn things around in 2009. A solid start against a solid player like Jarkko is one way to get that off on the right foot. You've also got Stepanek, Soderling, and Gasquet, who are all contenders. But the real force in this half is JW Tsonga, the number two seed. I'm sure everyone would love to see another Tsonga-Djokovic match-up in the final. After Djoko won their first meeting in the AO final last year, Tsonga has won their next three meetings. There may be a rivalry developing here.
The Chennai event might seem less exciting, as it has a higher proportion of rising stars who haven't made their mark yet or tour veterans whose best days may be behind them. Top seed Davydenko really should come through this with no trouble, but there are some players who might upset Kolya. He should at least get to the quarters (H.T. Lee can come up with some good matches, but the Korean just turned 33) but at that point, he may find Marin Cilic, Dudi Sela, or Janko Tipsarevic waiting for him.
I like Ivo Karlovic in the bottom half, (there could be a second round Ivo v. Ivo match between Karlovic and Minar) but Carlos Moya is 4-0 against the ace machine. It will also be interesting to see if Stanislas Wawrinka and Rainier Schuettler can get their games back. Both had spectacular runs in the middle of 2008 (Schuettler's took him to the semifinals at Wimbledon) but had trouble the rest of the year. The Swiss #2 ended the year by losing his last four matches, and Schuettler went on an eight match losing streak between January and May. Any of those seeds could come out of the bottom half.
The real drama should take place in Doha this week. There aren't that many intriguing first round matches, but Nadal-Santoro should be fun. I'm glad to see the magician has decided not to retire, yet. Youzhny-Andreev could also be a close one. I'd like to see Youzhny have a more solid 2009 than he did in 2008, even though he was an infamous YouTube star.
If everything goes with the seeds, and it probably should - the only other possible spoiler I see is young Viktor Troicki - then we'll have a Nadal-Monfils, Roddick-Andreev, Tursunov-Murray, and Kohlschreiber-Federer quarterfinal round. Then, potentially, a Roddick-Nadal and Murray-Federer (Round 7!) semis. Whoever can make it through this field is going to have the biggest boost to start their season. I like Murray, honestly, since he beat the the top two players in the world last week at Abu Dhabi. Could this be the Scot's year?
The most interesting path that any particular player has in front of him is Novak Djokovic, the top seed in Brisbane. His first three matches could be against Ernests Gulbis, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and then Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. If he gets through that unscathed, he could face Verdasco, Ancic, Ferrero, or Mardy Fish in the semifinals. Since his season went longer than anyone else's, we'll see how he recovered in the short off-season.
The bottom half of the Brisbane draw isn't quite as stacked, but it's still very exciting. The best first-round match, I think, is Marcos Baghdatis versus the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen. Baggy did not live up to his talent last year, so maybe he can turn things around in 2009. A solid start against a solid player like Jarkko is one way to get that off on the right foot. You've also got Stepanek, Soderling, and Gasquet, who are all contenders. But the real force in this half is JW Tsonga, the number two seed. I'm sure everyone would love to see another Tsonga-Djokovic match-up in the final. After Djoko won their first meeting in the AO final last year, Tsonga has won their next three meetings. There may be a rivalry developing here.
The Chennai event might seem less exciting, as it has a higher proportion of rising stars who haven't made their mark yet or tour veterans whose best days may be behind them. Top seed Davydenko really should come through this with no trouble, but there are some players who might upset Kolya. He should at least get to the quarters (H.T. Lee can come up with some good matches, but the Korean just turned 33) but at that point, he may find Marin Cilic, Dudi Sela, or Janko Tipsarevic waiting for him.
I like Ivo Karlovic in the bottom half, (there could be a second round Ivo v. Ivo match between Karlovic and Minar) but Carlos Moya is 4-0 against the ace machine. It will also be interesting to see if Stanislas Wawrinka and Rainier Schuettler can get their games back. Both had spectacular runs in the middle of 2008 (Schuettler's took him to the semifinals at Wimbledon) but had trouble the rest of the year. The Swiss #2 ended the year by losing his last four matches, and Schuettler went on an eight match losing streak between January and May. Any of those seeds could come out of the bottom half.
The real drama should take place in Doha this week. There aren't that many intriguing first round matches, but Nadal-Santoro should be fun. I'm glad to see the magician has decided not to retire, yet. Youzhny-Andreev could also be a close one. I'd like to see Youzhny have a more solid 2009 than he did in 2008, even though he was an infamous YouTube star.
If everything goes with the seeds, and it probably should - the only other possible spoiler I see is young Viktor Troicki - then we'll have a Nadal-Monfils, Roddick-Andreev, Tursunov-Murray, and Kohlschreiber-Federer quarterfinal round. Then, potentially, a Roddick-Nadal and Murray-Federer (Round 7!) semis. Whoever can make it through this field is going to have the biggest boost to start their season. I like Murray, honestly, since he beat the the top two players in the world last week at Abu Dhabi. Could this be the Scot's year?
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