Well, that was definitely one of the most exciting days of the open yet, and there are good odds that will be the peak of tournament, in terms of excitement. Out of six matches, three were absolute nail-biting thrillers - Wawrinka over Querrey in five, Verdasco over Ferrer in five, and Clijsters over Stosur in three.
Sam Querrey and Stan Wawrinka was the only match played entirely during the day, dealing with the worst of the wind. But both Sam and Stan were playing some of their best and gutsiest tennis. Sam was clearly the crowd's and the announcer's sentimental favorite, even if it seemed like Wawrinka's experience might see him through the match. And it did turn out that way, more or less - the key moments of the match came while Sam was serving to stay in the third and fifth sets, and Wawrinka turned up his aggression for one last push, and managed to break Sam both times. Querrey just wasn't as good at managing his energy and playing his best on the biggest points - the American had 15 break points to Wawrinka's 8, but Sam was only able to convert 3, while Stan managed to break Querrey's serve that essential fourth time. Chalk this one up to experience - Sam needs to be able to play those points better, because I think that over the course of the day, Querrey was actually the better player. But Wawrinka knew when and how to attack, and even though he was slightly hobbled and running on empty, he came up with a famous victory today. Here's hoping that Querrey will be inspired by this tight, tough loss, and not discouraged about how close he came.
The other men's match was even more brutal and exciting - as Fernando Verdasco came back from two sets to love down against countryman David Ferrer and won in a fifth set tiebreak, in a match that lasted four hours and 38 minutes. That's devastating for Ferrer, who was also up a break in the fifth set and a minibreak in the tiebreak. Verdasco closed the match with an unbelievable, looping forehand winner up the line off a very strong Ferrer volley at net. A really tough match from both guys, but Verdasco showed why his ranking is so high.
The Clijsters-Stosur match was also a tensely fought affair - but I didn't get to see much of it, I'll admit. I'm looking forward to the Clijsters-Venus semifinal though, I can promise you that.
The other matches on the men's side were less thrilling, as Youzhny closed out Robredo in four and Nadal (predictably) ousted Lopez in straight sets. Now Nadal and Verdasco will play a rematch of their epic semifinal in the Australian Open in 2009, one of the best matches of the year. And Wawrinka gets Youzhny - but the Russian is so much more well-rested physically and mentally, I'll be amazed if Wawrinka can pull another rabbit out of his hat.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the quarterfinals are underway on the men's side. Novak Djokovic gets Gael Monfils (I may have been confused last night and thought Monfils was going to play Robredo, despite being in the other half of the draw) and the pair have played some thrilling matches. A tough five-setter five years ago, here at the U.S. Open, and the final of the Paris indoor Masters last year. But Novak has won all four - and while Monfils has looked strong this week, he hasn't even played anybody who was seeded, yet. I have to think that the Djoker gets another win and gets back to the semis.
On the other hand, the Federer-Soderling match is a really appetizing contest. Fed had trounced Soderling repeatedly, and thoroughly, up until this year's French Open, where Soderling broke a number of the Swiss's streaks in one blow, including 12 matches straight against the top Swedish player. Now Federer gets a chance for revenge - last year, they played here in Flushing and Federer won, but it was tight towards the end. If Soderling can start off that way, he'll be in with chance. Federer has looked so sharp thus far, and Soderling actually dropped a set against Albert Montanes, which you just can't do if you want to be in the proper form. Fed is still the huge favorite, but it will be interesting. The most interesting Federer match to this point, by far.
On the women's side, I'm afraid to say that the quarterfinal matches are pretty dull. Wozniacki and Zvonareva should both cruise against their unheralded opponents, unless they suffer some injury or complete mental meltdown. Not much more to say about that.
Showing posts with label wawrinka. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wawrinka. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Madrid Third Round
In second round action in Madrid, there was really only one upset to speak of, and it wasn't even on the men's side! Serena Williams lost to Nadia Petrova, way out on court three. This is not a tremendous surprise, because Petrova started the year red hot, and may just now be getting her game back. But I also can't imagine that Serena was terribly excited about the situation, playing on court three as WTA world number one. Maybe she just wanted to head off to France and enjoy some more time off. At least, it was something that was on her mind. Her sister won, though.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Rome Quarterfinals
We're down to the last eight in Rome. The action today was, for the most part, not too terribly exciting. Only one match went three sets, and it wasn't because of the thrilling tennis. Ernests Gulbis was trying almost as hard as he did on Monday to choke away a match that he was playing well enough to win, and his opponent Filippo Volandri nearly let him, but he wasn't sufficiently solid to take the third set either. Gulbis advances to the quarterfinal and faces the winnner (if you can call him that) of the only match to go fewer than two sets.
That's right. Ivan Ljubicic apparently injured his rib during the warm-up in his match against Feliciano Lopez, and was forced to withdraw. Great result for Lopez, who really had no business making it to this stage. And how thrilled is he to see Ernests Gulbis, who almost gave away both of his previous matches, rather than Roger Federer? If Ernie plays the way he can, he should win, but if he gets overwhelmed by the situation, then it will be tough for him.
They'll be playing for the honor of facing the winner of Rafael Nadal vs. Stanislas Wawrinka, which is to say - they'll be playing to face Nadal. Credit to Wawrinka, who upset Robin Soderling, but the Swede was playing jaded after all the tennis he's played lately. And in that condition, who can get too excited about probably getting a revenge beatdown from Nadal? Soderling definitely didn't tank, but I doubt that his heart was entirely in it today. And who could blame him? Best of luck to Stan, who staged the best win of his career here a couple years ago when he beat Roger Federer, but I don't give him too much chance against Nadal. He would have to play perfect and then get a Nadal who's somewhat off his game. In his match today, Hanescu was the best I've ever seen him play for stretches, but Nadal still dispatched him with ease. Good luck, Stan.
While there's only a single seed left in the top half of the draw, and he could probably beat the other three players if they were all working together, the bottom half of the draw is still loaded with top players. The first quarterfinal is JW Tsonga against David Ferrer, who have never faced each other on tour before. One's a big hitter, the other's a big returner. I give Ferrer the edge on this surface, but it could go either way.
The other quarterfinal is even tighter. Novak Djokovic, still the number two player in the world, squares off against a guy who is putting together a spectacular run this season so far, Fernando Verdasco. "Hot Sauce" made the final in Monte Carlo and won Barcelona, so he's playing well. Djoko, on the other hand, hasn't been showing his best stuff with any consistency since his win in the Davis Cup against the US. He's been great for a match or two, but then he falls apart again. The Serb hasn't beaten a player ranked inside the top 15 all year. The thing is, though, that he hasn't had the chance to play that many, either. He could start to get his year back on track with a win here against Verdasco. Should be a fun one, though.
That's right. Ivan Ljubicic apparently injured his rib during the warm-up in his match against Feliciano Lopez, and was forced to withdraw. Great result for Lopez, who really had no business making it to this stage. And how thrilled is he to see Ernests Gulbis, who almost gave away both of his previous matches, rather than Roger Federer? If Ernie plays the way he can, he should win, but if he gets overwhelmed by the situation, then it will be tough for him.
They'll be playing for the honor of facing the winner of Rafael Nadal vs. Stanislas Wawrinka, which is to say - they'll be playing to face Nadal. Credit to Wawrinka, who upset Robin Soderling, but the Swede was playing jaded after all the tennis he's played lately. And in that condition, who can get too excited about probably getting a revenge beatdown from Nadal? Soderling definitely didn't tank, but I doubt that his heart was entirely in it today. And who could blame him? Best of luck to Stan, who staged the best win of his career here a couple years ago when he beat Roger Federer, but I don't give him too much chance against Nadal. He would have to play perfect and then get a Nadal who's somewhat off his game. In his match today, Hanescu was the best I've ever seen him play for stretches, but Nadal still dispatched him with ease. Good luck, Stan.
While there's only a single seed left in the top half of the draw, and he could probably beat the other three players if they were all working together, the bottom half of the draw is still loaded with top players. The first quarterfinal is JW Tsonga against David Ferrer, who have never faced each other on tour before. One's a big hitter, the other's a big returner. I give Ferrer the edge on this surface, but it could go either way.
The other quarterfinal is even tighter. Novak Djokovic, still the number two player in the world, squares off against a guy who is putting together a spectacular run this season so far, Fernando Verdasco. "Hot Sauce" made the final in Monte Carlo and won Barcelona, so he's playing well. Djoko, on the other hand, hasn't been showing his best stuff with any consistency since his win in the Davis Cup against the US. He's been great for a match or two, but then he falls apart again. The Serb hasn't beaten a player ranked inside the top 15 all year. The thing is, though, that he hasn't had the chance to play that many, either. He could start to get his year back on track with a win here against Verdasco. Should be a fun one, though.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Monte Carlo Day 4
We're on to the third round in Monte Carlo, and all 16 remaining players are in action. You can tell that the draw here is not as strong as it had been at the last two Masters Series events, or as it will likely be at the majority of the Masters events later in the year. There are some big names there, but also a higher percentage of relatively middle-of-the-road talent to be making the last sixteen at a tournament of his stature.
Petzchner and Kohlschreiber, for example, is a match that nobody at the tournament is getting too excited about. Even the German contingent can't be too excited, as one of their players is going to have to lose. Kohlschreiber should be excited about his win over Andy Murray, but that didn't have too much to do with his play. Murray would have lost to just about anybody, yesterday. Still, he needs to take advantage of this chance to make a run.
The rest of the matches have at least one player who is top ten or at least former top ten, so there's more of interest elsewhere on the grounds. Marin Cilic faces a tough match against clay-court veteran Albert Montanes. Cilic is a better player, but Montanes has much more experience on this kind of surface, so that could work against him. It's a tough match for the young Croat, so we'll see how he can handle the pressure.
The other opening match is much more deserving of the situation, as Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych go up against each other, in a rematch of a quarterfinal from Miami. Berdych won that one in a tight match, but I think the Spaniard has the advantage on clay. This is match between two experienced and talented players, who had a recent, tight encounter. Could be one of tomorrow's better matches.
Nadal is up next on center court, and he got a cupcake of a second-round opponent. Michael Berrer is another German, but this is not the place for him. He's 5-12 on clay, so don't expect him to trouble Nadal. If Nadal plays even close to the way he played against De Bakker, he could win without even dropping that single game. The bookies have given Berrer 60:1 odds, which may actually be generous.
Ivan Ljubicic has his first real test tomorrow, against Spaniard David Ferrer. On any other surface, this would be a tight match, but the clay will slow down the Croat's serve and big groundstrokes, giving Ferrer more time to get to the balls. Ferrer has won the pair's last four meetings, and I expect he'll get the W tomorrow as well. Ljubicic just can't hit through another player here the way he did in Indian Wells.
There are a lot of Spaniards around the grounds, as you may have noticed. Tommy Robredo is another one, and he faces the comeback story of the tournament so far, David Nalbandian, who won a great match against Mikhail Youzhny in the last round. It's interesting, actually... the last two times this pair met was two and four years ago at this very tournament, in this very round. Robredo won in 2006 in a tight three-setter, and Nalbandian won in 2008 in dominant fashion. This is all in Nalbandian's hands, I would say. If he can hit the ball consistently and deep, Robredo just doesn't have the firepower to trouble him. But he's been off the court for so long, it's tough to stay solid for that long. This could be a good one, too.
Another Spaniard faces Frenchman JW Tsonga on center court after Nadal, as the only former champion in the field, Juan Carlos Ferrero, faces off against the big-hitting Frenchman. Despite the fact that his home Slam is on clay, Tsonga's game has always been better suited to the hardcourts of Australia or New York. Tsonga leads the head to head 2-0, but the pair has never played on clay, and Ferrero is the best claycourter of the year, thus far. Surprisingly, Tsonga's career record on clay is only 12-7. Just because of the surface, I may lean towards Ferrero, here. More of a toss-up than some other matches, though.
The last match of note is top seed Novak Djokovic against a great Swiss player - of course, I mean Stan "The Man" Wawrinka, who actually has the longest winning streak on tour, at the moment. He's coming off his first title in quite a few years, and riding quite a bit of confidence. Djokovic, despite looking solid in the first round, has every reason to be shaky. An upset here is unlikely, as Djokovic is 7-2 against Stan, and has won the last 6. But it could be tight, and Djokovic may not be able to keep his game together if he's challenged.
Petzchner and Kohlschreiber, for example, is a match that nobody at the tournament is getting too excited about. Even the German contingent can't be too excited, as one of their players is going to have to lose. Kohlschreiber should be excited about his win over Andy Murray, but that didn't have too much to do with his play. Murray would have lost to just about anybody, yesterday. Still, he needs to take advantage of this chance to make a run.
The rest of the matches have at least one player who is top ten or at least former top ten, so there's more of interest elsewhere on the grounds. Marin Cilic faces a tough match against clay-court veteran Albert Montanes. Cilic is a better player, but Montanes has much more experience on this kind of surface, so that could work against him. It's a tough match for the young Croat, so we'll see how he can handle the pressure.
The other opening match is much more deserving of the situation, as Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych go up against each other, in a rematch of a quarterfinal from Miami. Berdych won that one in a tight match, but I think the Spaniard has the advantage on clay. This is match between two experienced and talented players, who had a recent, tight encounter. Could be one of tomorrow's better matches.
Nadal is up next on center court, and he got a cupcake of a second-round opponent. Michael Berrer is another German, but this is not the place for him. He's 5-12 on clay, so don't expect him to trouble Nadal. If Nadal plays even close to the way he played against De Bakker, he could win without even dropping that single game. The bookies have given Berrer 60:1 odds, which may actually be generous.
Ivan Ljubicic has his first real test tomorrow, against Spaniard David Ferrer. On any other surface, this would be a tight match, but the clay will slow down the Croat's serve and big groundstrokes, giving Ferrer more time to get to the balls. Ferrer has won the pair's last four meetings, and I expect he'll get the W tomorrow as well. Ljubicic just can't hit through another player here the way he did in Indian Wells.
There are a lot of Spaniards around the grounds, as you may have noticed. Tommy Robredo is another one, and he faces the comeback story of the tournament so far, David Nalbandian, who won a great match against Mikhail Youzhny in the last round. It's interesting, actually... the last two times this pair met was two and four years ago at this very tournament, in this very round. Robredo won in 2006 in a tight three-setter, and Nalbandian won in 2008 in dominant fashion. This is all in Nalbandian's hands, I would say. If he can hit the ball consistently and deep, Robredo just doesn't have the firepower to trouble him. But he's been off the court for so long, it's tough to stay solid for that long. This could be a good one, too.
Another Spaniard faces Frenchman JW Tsonga on center court after Nadal, as the only former champion in the field, Juan Carlos Ferrero, faces off against the big-hitting Frenchman. Despite the fact that his home Slam is on clay, Tsonga's game has always been better suited to the hardcourts of Australia or New York. Tsonga leads the head to head 2-0, but the pair has never played on clay, and Ferrero is the best claycourter of the year, thus far. Surprisingly, Tsonga's career record on clay is only 12-7. Just because of the surface, I may lean towards Ferrero, here. More of a toss-up than some other matches, though.
The last match of note is top seed Novak Djokovic against a great Swiss player - of course, I mean Stan "The Man" Wawrinka, who actually has the longest winning streak on tour, at the moment. He's coming off his first title in quite a few years, and riding quite a bit of confidence. Djokovic, despite looking solid in the first round, has every reason to be shaky. An upset here is unlikely, as Djokovic is 7-2 against Stan, and has won the last 6. But it could be tight, and Djokovic may not be able to keep his game together if he's challenged.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Monte Carlo Day 3
It's Wednesday in Monte Carlo, and that means that the rest of the second-round matches will be underway. Finally, we'll see how the top seeds are ready to adjust to the European clay-court swing. Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray are all in action tomorrow, and realistically, none of them should be tested in any of their matches. Murray may face the toughest test in German Phillipp Kohlschreiber, but if he can't handle the German on clay in the second round at Monte Carlo, then he can't expect to be a force on this surface for a while. That's the most interesting match among the top guys, to see what kind of form the Scot is in. Has he gotten over the loss to Federer at the Aussie Open? Roddick was basically out of action for the rest of the year, once he lost Wimbledon, so Murray may have to wait a bit to get his head back in the game, yet.
But that's not to say that the other top players should have no trouble at all. Djokovic, despite his relatively easy first match against Florent Serra, is struggling with his game, after a pair of lackluster performances at the last two Masters Series tournaments. He's been having trouble with his game, he's been mentally drained since his two wins against the US in Davis Cup, and he just fired his coach Todd Martin. He needs to get his serve back together, and he needs to cut out the unforced errors. We'll see if he's back on track.
For Nadal, the problem isn't mental. It will be interesting to see if he's back at his physical best. Clay is his surface, and he has a lot of points to defend for the next few months. How are his knees? How's his movement? Will he be as fast as he's been in the past? His first match should be a good test, as Thiemo De Bakker may not have a lot of experience at tour level, but he has four Challenger titles, all on clay. So he knows how to play on crushed brick. A handful of Challenger titles isn't enough to really unseat the king of clay, though, so I expect Nadal to come through. It will all depend on how cleanly he can make it through the match, to gauge how well he's playing, now that he's back at home and should be finding the ball in his wheelhouse, more often than not.
There are a couple other matches of interest taking place tomorrow, with four players who could make a run at this tournament. Ernests Gulbis is playing Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who followed up his victory in last week's final against Victor Hanescu by beating him again in the first round here. Gulbis made his debut a couple years ago at the French Open, so both of these guys can play some dirtball. I'm anxious to see how this one turns out. Gulbis looked like he might be ready to reach the next level when he won his first title on U.S. hard courts, but he was mostly AWOL during the two Masters Series there. We'll see if he can do better here.
The other match to keep an eye on is Mikhail Youzhny against David Nalbandian. Nalbandian is still on the comeback trail, but he hasn't been gifted any particularly fortunate draws up to this point. This tournament might be his best chance to get back to a quarterfinal, if he can play close to the level of his former best. But he's up against another relative veteran, who's been playing some much better ball as of late. Youzhny is near his career high ranking, but these two have never met on clay, so this could be an interesting match to see if Nalbandian is a player who might still have some good tennis ahead of him, or if his surgery and layoff was just too much to recover from.
But that's not to say that the other top players should have no trouble at all. Djokovic, despite his relatively easy first match against Florent Serra, is struggling with his game, after a pair of lackluster performances at the last two Masters Series tournaments. He's been having trouble with his game, he's been mentally drained since his two wins against the US in Davis Cup, and he just fired his coach Todd Martin. He needs to get his serve back together, and he needs to cut out the unforced errors. We'll see if he's back on track.
For Nadal, the problem isn't mental. It will be interesting to see if he's back at his physical best. Clay is his surface, and he has a lot of points to defend for the next few months. How are his knees? How's his movement? Will he be as fast as he's been in the past? His first match should be a good test, as Thiemo De Bakker may not have a lot of experience at tour level, but he has four Challenger titles, all on clay. So he knows how to play on crushed brick. A handful of Challenger titles isn't enough to really unseat the king of clay, though, so I expect Nadal to come through. It will all depend on how cleanly he can make it through the match, to gauge how well he's playing, now that he's back at home and should be finding the ball in his wheelhouse, more often than not.
There are a couple other matches of interest taking place tomorrow, with four players who could make a run at this tournament. Ernests Gulbis is playing Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who followed up his victory in last week's final against Victor Hanescu by beating him again in the first round here. Gulbis made his debut a couple years ago at the French Open, so both of these guys can play some dirtball. I'm anxious to see how this one turns out. Gulbis looked like he might be ready to reach the next level when he won his first title on U.S. hard courts, but he was mostly AWOL during the two Masters Series there. We'll see if he can do better here.
The other match to keep an eye on is Mikhail Youzhny against David Nalbandian. Nalbandian is still on the comeback trail, but he hasn't been gifted any particularly fortunate draws up to this point. This tournament might be his best chance to get back to a quarterfinal, if he can play close to the level of his former best. But he's up against another relative veteran, who's been playing some much better ball as of late. Youzhny is near his career high ranking, but these two have never met on clay, so this could be an interesting match to see if Nalbandian is a player who might still have some good tennis ahead of him, or if his surgery and layoff was just too much to recover from.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Monte Carlo Preview and Week 14 Review
With the preview week for the clay court season completed, things are about to get underway in earnest. Well, sort of. First of all, the results.
Sam Querrey ended the potential for a disaster to get any worse by beating Wayne Odesnik, but then he continued his poor performance in finals and lost to Juan Ignacio Chela. In his defense, clay has to be considered Querrey's worst surface, at least according to the way he plays, and it's also Chela's best. Still, Querrey's game really got loose in the final game of the last two sets, which is a shame, because he played well - for the most part. To be a really elite player, though, Sam's going to need to be more focused in finals. Credit to Chela, for winning his first title in three years.
In Casablanca, there was another winner who hadn't won a title in quite a few years. Stan Wawrinka had gone 0-5 since 2006, including a runner-up earlier this year to Marin Cilic. He beat Victor Hanescu to claim the second title of his career. It's surprising to me that Wawrinka can't put a strong week of tennis together more often. He's really a force when he's playing his best. We'll see if he can build off this victory for the rest of the claycourt season, where he generally does well.
Looking ahead to Monte Carlo, there's really only one question: can Rafael Nadal continue his dominance on this surface for another year? He is 29-1 at this event, winning it the last five years, a record which is just unbelievable. Amazingly, there is another multiple titlist in the field, as Juan Carlos Ferrero won here in 2002 and 2003. Everyone else who's won this tournament is out of tennis, if you can believe that.
Nadal's road to another title won't be easy, but he could have gotten a tougher draw. After his first-round bye, he'll get likely get young gun Thiemo De Bakker, who has been anxious for this part of the season to come along, I imagine. But he probably wasn't hoping his second match at the first Masters event on his favorite surface would be against Rafael Nadal. Beyond that, Nadal could face Juan Monaco or Jarkko Nieminen, and then either Tsonga or Ferrero. It's a shame, but it's not unlikely that we'll see the two titlists playing each other in the quarters.
The field at this event is not as strong as it might be, as a number of top players are out injured, and several others are taking their free "skip a Masters event" card at this event. Only five of the top ten players are in attendance, so the top seed at this event is Novak Djokovic. He'll have to get through a pretty tough quarter in his own right. The final between Hanescu and Wawrinka gets repeated as a first-round match here, which is a bit unusual. Another first-round match to watch here is Gulbis-Chiudinelli. Djokovic's quarter also has Robredo facing off against a potentially dangerous Horacio Zeballos, as well Nalbandian and Youzhny in the mix.
Murray's quarter is arguably the weakest, but these smaller Masters events are pretty stacked. He'll open against either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber, and he'll need to up his level to beat either of those guys on red clay. After that, he may get Melzer, and is likely to find David Ferrer waiting for him in the quarters. I don't expect to see Ljubicic make it out of this quarter, but he's been a surprising figure as of late. This is the quarter that's most likely to have a shock contender make it out of, I'd expect.
The last quarter, featuring fourth-seed Marin Cilic, has some big hitters scattered in it as well. Cilic opens against Andreev, who loves the way the clay slows down theb all and lets him really get around and rip his forehand. He'll then face either Seppi, Montanes, or Baghdatis, all tough players. The bottom section of that quarter will likely see Gasquet, Verdasco, or Berdych come out of it. Cilic's career record on clay is only 22-21, so he can make some headway this season. For comparison, though, Murray is only 20-18. They need to really play up to their seeding at this tournament.
We'll see if order will be restored this week, or whether the run of incredible upsets is going to continue as we've seen in the first two Masters Series of the year. The smart money is on Nadal, as in fact, the odds are better for Nadal winning than any of the other players in the draw. But things have not been quite as promising in Nadal's game as they have been in years past, so we'll see if he can play at his usual level.
Sam Querrey ended the potential for a disaster to get any worse by beating Wayne Odesnik, but then he continued his poor performance in finals and lost to Juan Ignacio Chela. In his defense, clay has to be considered Querrey's worst surface, at least according to the way he plays, and it's also Chela's best. Still, Querrey's game really got loose in the final game of the last two sets, which is a shame, because he played well - for the most part. To be a really elite player, though, Sam's going to need to be more focused in finals. Credit to Chela, for winning his first title in three years.
In Casablanca, there was another winner who hadn't won a title in quite a few years. Stan Wawrinka had gone 0-5 since 2006, including a runner-up earlier this year to Marin Cilic. He beat Victor Hanescu to claim the second title of his career. It's surprising to me that Wawrinka can't put a strong week of tennis together more often. He's really a force when he's playing his best. We'll see if he can build off this victory for the rest of the claycourt season, where he generally does well.
Looking ahead to Monte Carlo, there's really only one question: can Rafael Nadal continue his dominance on this surface for another year? He is 29-1 at this event, winning it the last five years, a record which is just unbelievable. Amazingly, there is another multiple titlist in the field, as Juan Carlos Ferrero won here in 2002 and 2003. Everyone else who's won this tournament is out of tennis, if you can believe that.
Nadal's road to another title won't be easy, but he could have gotten a tougher draw. After his first-round bye, he'll get likely get young gun Thiemo De Bakker, who has been anxious for this part of the season to come along, I imagine. But he probably wasn't hoping his second match at the first Masters event on his favorite surface would be against Rafael Nadal. Beyond that, Nadal could face Juan Monaco or Jarkko Nieminen, and then either Tsonga or Ferrero. It's a shame, but it's not unlikely that we'll see the two titlists playing each other in the quarters.
The field at this event is not as strong as it might be, as a number of top players are out injured, and several others are taking their free "skip a Masters event" card at this event. Only five of the top ten players are in attendance, so the top seed at this event is Novak Djokovic. He'll have to get through a pretty tough quarter in his own right. The final between Hanescu and Wawrinka gets repeated as a first-round match here, which is a bit unusual. Another first-round match to watch here is Gulbis-Chiudinelli. Djokovic's quarter also has Robredo facing off against a potentially dangerous Horacio Zeballos, as well Nalbandian and Youzhny in the mix.
Murray's quarter is arguably the weakest, but these smaller Masters events are pretty stacked. He'll open against either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber, and he'll need to up his level to beat either of those guys on red clay. After that, he may get Melzer, and is likely to find David Ferrer waiting for him in the quarters. I don't expect to see Ljubicic make it out of this quarter, but he's been a surprising figure as of late. This is the quarter that's most likely to have a shock contender make it out of, I'd expect.
The last quarter, featuring fourth-seed Marin Cilic, has some big hitters scattered in it as well. Cilic opens against Andreev, who loves the way the clay slows down theb all and lets him really get around and rip his forehand. He'll then face either Seppi, Montanes, or Baghdatis, all tough players. The bottom section of that quarter will likely see Gasquet, Verdasco, or Berdych come out of it. Cilic's career record on clay is only 22-21, so he can make some headway this season. For comparison, though, Murray is only 20-18. They need to really play up to their seeding at this tournament.
We'll see if order will be restored this week, or whether the run of incredible upsets is going to continue as we've seen in the first two Masters Series of the year. The smart money is on Nadal, as in fact, the odds are better for Nadal winning than any of the other players in the draw. But things have not been quite as promising in Nadal's game as they have been in years past, so we'll see if he can play at his usual level.
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Week 14 Semifinal Preview
We're up to the semifinals at the first four clay court tournaments of the season, and unfortunately, the biggest story of the week is not a good one. Wayne Odesnik, convicted of possessing and smuggling HGH into Australia earlier in the year, is still playing at this year's U.S. Clay Court Championships in Houston. Pete Bodo has the best look at the whole situation, but the summary is this:
There is no possible way, based on any evidence that we've been presented with thus far, that Odesnik will not get out of a suspension. He's been convicted of possession, and that is punishable in the same way that a positive drug test would have been. So it's a near-certainty that he'll be out of the game for two years, and all of his results between his conviction and his suspension will be nullified. His prize money, too. So that means he's playing in this tournaments - and making the the quarterfinals, thus far - for nothing, except denying other players their shot.
It's either really stupid, or really shameless, or both. I don't have a lot of sympathy for this guy at this point, and I hope that he loses to Querrey in the next round, or else he has a real shot at winning at the tournament, which is absolutely a terrible result for all involved. The ATP needs to review their policies after this whole ordeal and get some sort of a provisional suspension in place so that this does not happen again. It's just not acceptable. Hopefully, Querrey can end this story before it becomes a real problem for the ITF and the WADA.
In any case, the other semifinal in Houston, which looked like it would be Gonzalez and Hewitt, is instead Juan Ignacio Chela and Horacio Zeballos. Not quite the blockbuster that the organizers were hoping for. They're both relatively unknown players in the states, but both very talented clay court players, and either one has a legitimate shot of walking away with the title. Here's hoping that they beat Odesnik, if Querrey can't pull it off.
In Casablanca, things are relatively quiet. Victor Hanescu has been playing some great ball to beat Jarkko Nieminen, who blew through qualifying, and then former top-ten player Richard Gasquet, who still hasn't gotten his career Renaissance. Hanescu faces Florent Serra in one semifinal, while the other is top seed Stan Wawrinka against Italy's Potito Starace, who hasn't had the toughest draw, but hasn't lost a set and has been playing great ball. Really, any one of these players has a legitimate shot at the title, and it's tough to know who's going to come out on top.
Really, everyone's looking ahead to next week's tournament in Monte Carlo - the draw comes out tomorrow, so we'll take a look at that and see the real beginning of the clay court season starting next week. This is all just a warm-up.
There is no possible way, based on any evidence that we've been presented with thus far, that Odesnik will not get out of a suspension. He's been convicted of possession, and that is punishable in the same way that a positive drug test would have been. So it's a near-certainty that he'll be out of the game for two years, and all of his results between his conviction and his suspension will be nullified. His prize money, too. So that means he's playing in this tournaments - and making the the quarterfinals, thus far - for nothing, except denying other players their shot.
It's either really stupid, or really shameless, or both. I don't have a lot of sympathy for this guy at this point, and I hope that he loses to Querrey in the next round, or else he has a real shot at winning at the tournament, which is absolutely a terrible result for all involved. The ATP needs to review their policies after this whole ordeal and get some sort of a provisional suspension in place so that this does not happen again. It's just not acceptable. Hopefully, Querrey can end this story before it becomes a real problem for the ITF and the WADA.
In any case, the other semifinal in Houston, which looked like it would be Gonzalez and Hewitt, is instead Juan Ignacio Chela and Horacio Zeballos. Not quite the blockbuster that the organizers were hoping for. They're both relatively unknown players in the states, but both very talented clay court players, and either one has a legitimate shot of walking away with the title. Here's hoping that they beat Odesnik, if Querrey can't pull it off.
In Casablanca, things are relatively quiet. Victor Hanescu has been playing some great ball to beat Jarkko Nieminen, who blew through qualifying, and then former top-ten player Richard Gasquet, who still hasn't gotten his career Renaissance. Hanescu faces Florent Serra in one semifinal, while the other is top seed Stan Wawrinka against Italy's Potito Starace, who hasn't had the toughest draw, but hasn't lost a set and has been playing great ball. Really, any one of these players has a legitimate shot at the title, and it's tough to know who's going to come out on top.
Really, everyone's looking ahead to next week's tournament in Monte Carlo - the draw comes out tomorrow, so we'll take a look at that and see the real beginning of the clay court season starting next week. This is all just a warm-up.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Miami Review and Next Week's Preview
Roddick won today, in what could only be described as an efficient and workmanlike performance. It didn't reach the level of shotmaking and spectacle that Roddick got to against Nadal, but it wasn't necessary. Berdych never quite got out of third gear, and he really needed to hit that level in order to push Roddick today. Roddick served effectively - not huge, but he was hitting his spots and preventing Berdych from really getting his feet underneath him and getting too many returns deep. He won 70% of his second serve points against the Czech, and he's going to be tough to beat when that's the case.
In fact, Roddick never even faced a break point against Berdych. He was only broken twice in the entire tournament, once against Benjamin Becker and once against Nadal. And that's all well and good, but he also managed to take advantage of the brief period where Berdych got troubled by the pressure of the situation or the sun or just an inexplicable dip in focus. Roddick broke Berdych at 5-all in the first set and then again at love-all in the second, and that was all he needed. He had a couple more break points near the end of the second set which were also match points, but Berdych managed to save them. That kind of thing could have given a less steady player pause, and it could have turned the match around. I've seen it happen before. But Roddick came back and served out the match with aplomb.
It's a bit of shame that the clay court season is just starting, because this is the biggest purple patch of Roddick's play that we've seen in a long time. And he's said in his post-tournament interview that he's not thrilled about the move to clay, which is a shame. Yes, it blunts the effectiveness of his hard serve, but his kick will still work, and his new style of defensive-minded back court play should actually serve him well. There is no reason he can't get some points at these claycourt masters series events or get into the French Open. I really hope to see him get over his phobia of crushed red brick.
Whether Roddick wants it to or not, the claycourt season starts in earnest now. But that doesn't mean that it has to leave the United States quite yet. The U.S.'s last vestige of claycourt tennis takes place this week in Houston, Texas. It should be interesting to see if an American player can do well here, as there are quite a few of them in the draw. It's green clay, which is quicker than its red counterpart, so that could help.
Lleyton Hewitt won this tournament last year, and he's back this year, in his first tournament since the drubbing he got from Roger Federer at the Australian Open. He could open against Mardy Fish, if Fish survives his first round. Both players are recovering from surgery and subsequent injury, but it could still be a good match.
Also, be on the lookout for Americans Querrey, Isner, and Russell, who are all in the same half of the draw. Even though he's the lowest-ranked, I think that Russell's game is actually the most well-suited to clay. Keep an eye on the fourth American in the bottom half of the draw as well - Wayne Odesnik, who is going to keep playing tennis while he waits for the decision resulting from the discovery that he was caught with HGH on his way into Australia. I'm surprised by his decision, and interested to see how he plays under the circumstances. He's actually not a bad player on this surface, but he's just going to get hounded here.
Also, keep an eye on Fernando Gonzalez, the top seed, and Horacio Zeballos. We all know that the South Americans have always been better on the clay. Another player who's one to watch in the top half is American wildcard Donald Young. He dropped in qualifying in the last four tournaments he's played in, so it's got to be a gift to get a wildcard directly into the main draw. Let's see if he can take advantage. Taylor Dent is also here, but this surface has just got to be death for a guy who plays big serve, net rush, and put away the volley. Don't expect him to get far.
The other tournament going on this coming week is on the other side of the pond, in Casablanca. The draw there is not especially robust, either. This week is always a bit of a dead week in some respect, as the players who did well during the hard court swing need rest, and the players who are really focusing on the claycourt swing want to get ready for the Monte Carlo masters, which takes place the following week.
The top seed and favorite to win it is Stan Wawrinka, who shouldn't really be troubled on his way to the semis, where he might face a Frenchman like Arnaud Clement or Paul-Henri Mathieu. It would be a surprise for the Swiss number two to fall prior to that. The bottom half is a bit more open, with Victor Hanescu - who really shouldn't consider clay his best surface but somehow does - Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer and two of the tournaments potential winners actually meeting in the first round - Olivier Rochus and Richard Gasquet.
After the excitement of two masters series in a row, the week that follows is going to feel a bit like a letdown, but there's still bound to be some good tennis. Just like it is for a lot of these players, it's a warm-up before the real claycourt season starts in earnest next week.
In fact, Roddick never even faced a break point against Berdych. He was only broken twice in the entire tournament, once against Benjamin Becker and once against Nadal. And that's all well and good, but he also managed to take advantage of the brief period where Berdych got troubled by the pressure of the situation or the sun or just an inexplicable dip in focus. Roddick broke Berdych at 5-all in the first set and then again at love-all in the second, and that was all he needed. He had a couple more break points near the end of the second set which were also match points, but Berdych managed to save them. That kind of thing could have given a less steady player pause, and it could have turned the match around. I've seen it happen before. But Roddick came back and served out the match with aplomb.
It's a bit of shame that the clay court season is just starting, because this is the biggest purple patch of Roddick's play that we've seen in a long time. And he's said in his post-tournament interview that he's not thrilled about the move to clay, which is a shame. Yes, it blunts the effectiveness of his hard serve, but his kick will still work, and his new style of defensive-minded back court play should actually serve him well. There is no reason he can't get some points at these claycourt masters series events or get into the French Open. I really hope to see him get over his phobia of crushed red brick.
Whether Roddick wants it to or not, the claycourt season starts in earnest now. But that doesn't mean that it has to leave the United States quite yet. The U.S.'s last vestige of claycourt tennis takes place this week in Houston, Texas. It should be interesting to see if an American player can do well here, as there are quite a few of them in the draw. It's green clay, which is quicker than its red counterpart, so that could help.
Lleyton Hewitt won this tournament last year, and he's back this year, in his first tournament since the drubbing he got from Roger Federer at the Australian Open. He could open against Mardy Fish, if Fish survives his first round. Both players are recovering from surgery and subsequent injury, but it could still be a good match.
Also, be on the lookout for Americans Querrey, Isner, and Russell, who are all in the same half of the draw. Even though he's the lowest-ranked, I think that Russell's game is actually the most well-suited to clay. Keep an eye on the fourth American in the bottom half of the draw as well - Wayne Odesnik, who is going to keep playing tennis while he waits for the decision resulting from the discovery that he was caught with HGH on his way into Australia. I'm surprised by his decision, and interested to see how he plays under the circumstances. He's actually not a bad player on this surface, but he's just going to get hounded here.
Also, keep an eye on Fernando Gonzalez, the top seed, and Horacio Zeballos. We all know that the South Americans have always been better on the clay. Another player who's one to watch in the top half is American wildcard Donald Young. He dropped in qualifying in the last four tournaments he's played in, so it's got to be a gift to get a wildcard directly into the main draw. Let's see if he can take advantage. Taylor Dent is also here, but this surface has just got to be death for a guy who plays big serve, net rush, and put away the volley. Don't expect him to get far.
The other tournament going on this coming week is on the other side of the pond, in Casablanca. The draw there is not especially robust, either. This week is always a bit of a dead week in some respect, as the players who did well during the hard court swing need rest, and the players who are really focusing on the claycourt swing want to get ready for the Monte Carlo masters, which takes place the following week.
The top seed and favorite to win it is Stan Wawrinka, who shouldn't really be troubled on his way to the semis, where he might face a Frenchman like Arnaud Clement or Paul-Henri Mathieu. It would be a surprise for the Swiss number two to fall prior to that. The bottom half is a bit more open, with Victor Hanescu - who really shouldn't consider clay his best surface but somehow does - Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer and two of the tournaments potential winners actually meeting in the first round - Olivier Rochus and Richard Gasquet.
After the excitement of two masters series in a row, the week that follows is going to feel a bit like a letdown, but there's still bound to be some good tennis. Just like it is for a lot of these players, it's a warm-up before the real claycourt season starts in earnest next week.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Week 1 Champions and Week 2 Preview
The remaining two finals from the first week of the 2010 ATP season have been contested. In Chennai, defending champion Marin Cilic beat Stan Wawrinka in two tiebreak sets. It was a close match, and really In Brisbane, Andy Roddick beat defending champion Radek Stepanek in two tiebreaks. Really, there was very little to choose between these two players. Cilic served at 57%, Wawrinka at 59%. They both won 61% of their second-serve points. They both converted two break chances. The only difference, in the end, was that Cilic won 72% of points on first serve, while Wawrinka won only 62%. Still, a close match, and both players should be encouraged by their performance this week.
In Brisbane, the match between Roddick and Stepanek went to two tiebreaks as well, but the second-set was absolutely bizarre. Stepanek went away and Roddick went to a 5-1 lead thanks to a pair of double faults on break points by Radek, only to be broken twice while serving for the match. Roddick's play didn't drop a great deal (it did drop, though) but Stepanek raised his game and changed his strategy to frustrate and bamboozle Roddick.
In the tiebreak, Roddick made it to 6-2, and then lost five consecutive match points to get back to six-all. He had another match point at 8-7, when Stepanek put himself out of his misery and double-faulted again. This has to be disappointing for both players. Roddick has to be shaken that he couldn't close out after getting two huge leads, and Stepanek has to be upset that he couldn't take advantage of Roddick being off his game and clearly in a bad mental state. That said, a win is a win, and Roddick will be happy to lift his first trophy since early last year. Roddick now has the longest active streak of years with at least one tournament win.
Looking ahead to the second week of the season, it's a tale of two tiers. In Sydney and Auckland, which both hosted women's events last week, there are ATP tournaments which feature a good list of mid-range talents. But all of the top players are either taking the week off or playing in the Kooyong exhibition. No top ten player is in official action, this week.
Of course, that's not to say that there won't be some exciting tennis. In Sydney, Monfils, Wawrinka, Berdych, Hewitt and Querrey lead the field and are the favorites to make it deep into the tournament, but there are a handful of dangerous floaters in the draw. Mardy Fish opens against Carsten Ball, while Baghdatis starts against Nick Lindahl. Fish will have his hands full, but Baggy shouldn't have any trouble getting through his wildcard opponent. Chennai semifinalist Dudi Sela is also in the draw, as is Frenchman Richard Gasquet, who opens against Feliciano Lopez.
In Auckland, the top seed is Tommy Robredo, fresh off his Hopman Cup win, who is joined by three other Spaniards to make up the top four: Ferrer, Ferrero, and Almagro. The seeds also feature Monaco and Montanes, so you might be forgiven for thinking that this could be a claycourt tournament. It's a pretty wide open draw, and there's a chance for some lower-ranked players to make a deep run.
John Isner opens against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, which should be an interesting match-up. Isner will surely be hoping to start his year as well as he ended last year, and will be looking to forget his modest results at the Hopman Cup last week. Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli and Tomaz Bellucci face each other in the first round as well, for the privilege of facing the winner of the best first-round match-up of the week.
I'm speaking, of course, about David Nalbandian's return to competitive tennis, in which he faces German Phillip Kohlschreiber. It will be fascinating to see how Nalbandian is feeling. Has he recovered from his surgery? Has he worked on his fitness in the off-season? Will his unearthly timing and shotmaking have survived his long layoff? Only time will tell.
Kooyong is an interesting story this week. Federer opted not to play at the last minute, and it's still not clear who is going to take up that last spot. The other players in the field are Djokovic, Del Potro, Gonzalez, Tsonga, Soderling, Haas, and Verdasco. That's a strong field, no question. But it doesn't have Roddick, Murray, Nadal, Davydenko, or Federer. The draw won't be released until the 12th, so they'll have to fill in the last spot by then. I'm interested to see what the organizers do to deal with this unusual situation.
On the women's side, there's another sharp difference in the field between the two tournaments going on this week. Sydney features eight of the top nine players in the world, with only Venus Williams not present. In Hobart, on the other hand, the top seed is 27th-ranked Annabel Medina-Garrigues. Since the winner in Sydney takes home nearly $100K, while the Hobart champion gets only $37K, this may not be a surprise. But this also means that most people are going to be watching Sydney.
Play started earlier than I thought it would, and Russians Kuznetsova and Dementieva have already moved on to the second round. It's really tough to see anyone but the top seeds making it to the semis or final here, since the top of the field is just so tough. It will be interesting to watch Dinara Safina and see if she can recover from how dismally she finished up 2009, or if that was just the first step in a precipitous decline. I hope to see her bounce back and even break through to win a slam in 2010.
In Brisbane, the match between Roddick and Stepanek went to two tiebreaks as well, but the second-set was absolutely bizarre. Stepanek went away and Roddick went to a 5-1 lead thanks to a pair of double faults on break points by Radek, only to be broken twice while serving for the match. Roddick's play didn't drop a great deal (it did drop, though) but Stepanek raised his game and changed his strategy to frustrate and bamboozle Roddick.
In the tiebreak, Roddick made it to 6-2, and then lost five consecutive match points to get back to six-all. He had another match point at 8-7, when Stepanek put himself out of his misery and double-faulted again. This has to be disappointing for both players. Roddick has to be shaken that he couldn't close out after getting two huge leads, and Stepanek has to be upset that he couldn't take advantage of Roddick being off his game and clearly in a bad mental state. That said, a win is a win, and Roddick will be happy to lift his first trophy since early last year. Roddick now has the longest active streak of years with at least one tournament win.
Looking ahead to the second week of the season, it's a tale of two tiers. In Sydney and Auckland, which both hosted women's events last week, there are ATP tournaments which feature a good list of mid-range talents. But all of the top players are either taking the week off or playing in the Kooyong exhibition. No top ten player is in official action, this week.
Of course, that's not to say that there won't be some exciting tennis. In Sydney, Monfils, Wawrinka, Berdych, Hewitt and Querrey lead the field and are the favorites to make it deep into the tournament, but there are a handful of dangerous floaters in the draw. Mardy Fish opens against Carsten Ball, while Baghdatis starts against Nick Lindahl. Fish will have his hands full, but Baggy shouldn't have any trouble getting through his wildcard opponent. Chennai semifinalist Dudi Sela is also in the draw, as is Frenchman Richard Gasquet, who opens against Feliciano Lopez.
In Auckland, the top seed is Tommy Robredo, fresh off his Hopman Cup win, who is joined by three other Spaniards to make up the top four: Ferrer, Ferrero, and Almagro. The seeds also feature Monaco and Montanes, so you might be forgiven for thinking that this could be a claycourt tournament. It's a pretty wide open draw, and there's a chance for some lower-ranked players to make a deep run.
John Isner opens against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, which should be an interesting match-up. Isner will surely be hoping to start his year as well as he ended last year, and will be looking to forget his modest results at the Hopman Cup last week. Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli and Tomaz Bellucci face each other in the first round as well, for the privilege of facing the winner of the best first-round match-up of the week.
I'm speaking, of course, about David Nalbandian's return to competitive tennis, in which he faces German Phillip Kohlschreiber. It will be fascinating to see how Nalbandian is feeling. Has he recovered from his surgery? Has he worked on his fitness in the off-season? Will his unearthly timing and shotmaking have survived his long layoff? Only time will tell.
Kooyong is an interesting story this week. Federer opted not to play at the last minute, and it's still not clear who is going to take up that last spot. The other players in the field are Djokovic, Del Potro, Gonzalez, Tsonga, Soderling, Haas, and Verdasco. That's a strong field, no question. But it doesn't have Roddick, Murray, Nadal, Davydenko, or Federer. The draw won't be released until the 12th, so they'll have to fill in the last spot by then. I'm interested to see what the organizers do to deal with this unusual situation.
On the women's side, there's another sharp difference in the field between the two tournaments going on this week. Sydney features eight of the top nine players in the world, with only Venus Williams not present. In Hobart, on the other hand, the top seed is 27th-ranked Annabel Medina-Garrigues. Since the winner in Sydney takes home nearly $100K, while the Hobart champion gets only $37K, this may not be a surprise. But this also means that most people are going to be watching Sydney.
Play started earlier than I thought it would, and Russians Kuznetsova and Dementieva have already moved on to the second round. It's really tough to see anyone but the top seeds making it to the semis or final here, since the top of the field is just so tough. It will be interesting to watch Dinara Safina and see if she can recover from how dismally she finished up 2009, or if that was just the first step in a precipitous decline. I hope to see her bounce back and even break through to win a slam in 2010.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Finals Week 1 - Top Players Stumble!
As several of the first tournaments of the week have already been decided (two finals remain to be played), the most interesting thing about the outcomes is how two of the top players in the world seemed to have their victories firmly in-hand, only to let them slip away.
In the Hopman Cup, Andy Murray and Laura Robson were playing Spain for the championship. Before play started, it was easy to guess that Laura Robson would drop her singles match, but then Murray would win his and the pair would win their doubles point. That was how it had gone for most of the week. Laura Robson had lost all of her singles matches, while Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez had yet to drop a set. So when Robson came out on fire and beat Martinez Sanchez in straights, the victory for Great Britain was all but assured.
And then, Murray came out and took the first set from Tommy Robredo 6-1. Imagine the surprise and disappointment that Murray must have felt as he dropped the last two sets, and then proceeded to lose the mixed doubles in two as well. What seemed like a sure thing somehow managed to slip away, in a surprising loss for the Brit. Since this was his only warm-up to the Australian Open (I believe), it's unfortunate that he has to go in on that sort of a defeat.
Another player who isn't going to be thrilled with the result of his last match before the Australian Open was Rafael Nadal. He faced Nikolay Davydenko, who had beaten Federer in the semifinals, and took the first set from the Russian in imperious fashion, losing only one point on serve and breaking Davydenko there times. After that, the match started. The second set went to a tiebreak and Nadal had two match points, but Davydenko pulled it out 10-8. Nadal was then up a break in the decider, but Davydenko leveled and then took the match.
Davydenko becomes one of four people to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, and is riding the longest winning streak on tour. After years of leading the second tier of top players, he seems to have finally reached his proper place among the elite. After his win at the 2009 year end championships in London, and then this display in Doha, Nikolay has to be among the favorites in the Australian Open. There's no reason he can't win, if he can continue this run.
In Brisbane, there was another cracker of a match between Belgians Clijsters and Henin, which went to a third-set tiebreak. While Henin also had match points, Clijsters came out on top, just barely. Considering that this is her first match back after 20 months of retirement and Clijsters is the most recent slam winner on the WTA tour, this is an exciting omen for Henin's comeback. Unfortunately, she has withdrawn from next week's tournament in Sydney. Regardless, she's demonstrated that she's ready to make a run at the Aussie Open, and I'm no sure no one wants to see her in their section of the draw.
The other final in Brisbane will feature Radek Stepanek, who breezed passed a physically-uncomfortable Gael Monfils, and Andy Roddick, who had a much tougher time against Tomas Berdych. Despite having not dropped serve all week long, Roddick was broken in the first game of the match, and then again in the second. He lost the first set 6-1, while failing to convert on four break points.
In the second set, he tightened up his game, raising his first serve winning percentage from 50 to 76 and breaking one time in six tries. After evening the match, Roddick pulled himself together even further. In the final set, he won 82% of his first serve points and 86% on his second. He broke again, and managed to edge out a tough win in three.
In the final, we'll have to the battle of Radek versus Roddick, which is always exciting. They've played six times, with the American winning five, but Stepanek beat Roddick in a tough semifinal in San Jose last year. It should be an exciting match, and I know that Andy would like to get his first title in his first outing this season, but Stepanek is eager to complete his first successful title defense.
In Chennai, last year title-winner is also in the final again, facing Swiss number two Stanislas Wawrinka. Stan "the Man" is 4-0 against Cilic, but they haven't played since 2008, and he has matured a great deal in that time. It should be a fine match, as well.
One last note - Yanina Wickmayer has finished her successful rejoinder to her suspended suspension, by beating top seed Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. Also, that turns out to have been a fine use of a wildcard. The draws are out for next week's tournaments, and I hope to take a look at those tomorrow.
In the Hopman Cup, Andy Murray and Laura Robson were playing Spain for the championship. Before play started, it was easy to guess that Laura Robson would drop her singles match, but then Murray would win his and the pair would win their doubles point. That was how it had gone for most of the week. Laura Robson had lost all of her singles matches, while Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez had yet to drop a set. So when Robson came out on fire and beat Martinez Sanchez in straights, the victory for Great Britain was all but assured.
And then, Murray came out and took the first set from Tommy Robredo 6-1. Imagine the surprise and disappointment that Murray must have felt as he dropped the last two sets, and then proceeded to lose the mixed doubles in two as well. What seemed like a sure thing somehow managed to slip away, in a surprising loss for the Brit. Since this was his only warm-up to the Australian Open (I believe), it's unfortunate that he has to go in on that sort of a defeat.
Another player who isn't going to be thrilled with the result of his last match before the Australian Open was Rafael Nadal. He faced Nikolay Davydenko, who had beaten Federer in the semifinals, and took the first set from the Russian in imperious fashion, losing only one point on serve and breaking Davydenko there times. After that, the match started. The second set went to a tiebreak and Nadal had two match points, but Davydenko pulled it out 10-8. Nadal was then up a break in the decider, but Davydenko leveled and then took the match.
Davydenko becomes one of four people to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, and is riding the longest winning streak on tour. After years of leading the second tier of top players, he seems to have finally reached his proper place among the elite. After his win at the 2009 year end championships in London, and then this display in Doha, Nikolay has to be among the favorites in the Australian Open. There's no reason he can't win, if he can continue this run.
In Brisbane, there was another cracker of a match between Belgians Clijsters and Henin, which went to a third-set tiebreak. While Henin also had match points, Clijsters came out on top, just barely. Considering that this is her first match back after 20 months of retirement and Clijsters is the most recent slam winner on the WTA tour, this is an exciting omen for Henin's comeback. Unfortunately, she has withdrawn from next week's tournament in Sydney. Regardless, she's demonstrated that she's ready to make a run at the Aussie Open, and I'm no sure no one wants to see her in their section of the draw.
The other final in Brisbane will feature Radek Stepanek, who breezed passed a physically-uncomfortable Gael Monfils, and Andy Roddick, who had a much tougher time against Tomas Berdych. Despite having not dropped serve all week long, Roddick was broken in the first game of the match, and then again in the second. He lost the first set 6-1, while failing to convert on four break points.
In the second set, he tightened up his game, raising his first serve winning percentage from 50 to 76 and breaking one time in six tries. After evening the match, Roddick pulled himself together even further. In the final set, he won 82% of his first serve points and 86% on his second. He broke again, and managed to edge out a tough win in three.
In the final, we'll have to the battle of Radek versus Roddick, which is always exciting. They've played six times, with the American winning five, but Stepanek beat Roddick in a tough semifinal in San Jose last year. It should be an exciting match, and I know that Andy would like to get his first title in his first outing this season, but Stepanek is eager to complete his first successful title defense.
In Chennai, last year title-winner is also in the final again, facing Swiss number two Stanislas Wawrinka. Stan "the Man" is 4-0 against Cilic, but they haven't played since 2008, and he has matured a great deal in that time. It should be a fine match, as well.
One last note - Yanina Wickmayer has finished her successful rejoinder to her suspended suspension, by beating top seed Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. Also, that turns out to have been a fine use of a wildcard. The draws are out for next week's tournaments, and I hope to take a look at those tomorrow.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Davydenko on top - Semifinals Week 1
While Soderling's loss to Ginepri may have been the first big upset of the year, the first time the world number one loses is always an upset, just by definition. Federer's loss to Davydenko may have been less surprising, since the Russian just won their most recent meeting at the World Tour Finals at the end of last season, but it is a bit unexpected since Federer had a 12-0 record against him before that.
In the first set, Nikolay put 100% of his first serves into play. Twenty-seven out of twenty-seven, which is just an unbelievable statistic. Davydenko gets Nadal in the final, who breezed past Serbian Viktor Troicki. They also played at the last event in 2009, and Davydenko came out on top. Although I've been a doubter in the past, the Russian may finally be developing the confidence to really make a run to a grand slam title. If he handles Nadal as well as he took care of Federer, it'll definitely put him in contention at the Aussie Open.
The semifinals at all four events this week were all populated by top 5 seeds. In Doha, 4th seed Youzhny was missing. In Chennai, it was top seed Soderling. But in Brisbane, all four top seeds have made it this far. Berdych had his hands full with Tomaz Bellucci, but his experience got him through in three. That said, this was one of the best matches I've seen Bellucci play, and he was just points from victory. I think he has the potential to be a top-ten player.
The other quarter in Brisbane was billed as a tougher contest, but was actually less competitive. Roddick and Gasquet both played well in a match that featured tremendous serving, clutch volleying, and and superb shot-making from the back of the court, as well. But Roddick managed a break in the first set (needing eight chances to do so) and then secured the match in the second-set tiebreak. The Frenchman is playing well, but he has yet to return to his top form. Roddick will play Berdych in the semis, and the pair has a close head-to-head record. It should be a good match.
Also in Brisbane, the women's final has been decided, and it was the match-up that everyone was hoping for. Kim Clijsters will take on her compatriot Justine Henin, back to a final in her first tournament in nearly two years. They've played a great deal in the past, with Henin coming out on top more often than not, but you have to give the edge to Clijsters based solely on recent form.
There's a third Belgian woman in a final this week, amazingly. Yanina Wickmayer will face top-seeded Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. It's good to see her shaking off the minor drug scandal that could have proved to be quite a distraction at the end of last season.
In Chennai, Janko Tipsarevic, who has been frustrated by the success of his compatriot Djokovic (or at least his own relative lack of it) beat young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker, who has had an amazing run in his first tournament of the year. He'll playing defending champ Marin Cilic in the semis, for the privilege of playing the winner of Dudi Sela and Stan Wawrinka. It's tough to bet against a Wawrinka-Cilic final at this point, but as we've seen, upsets do happen.
In the first set, Nikolay put 100% of his first serves into play. Twenty-seven out of twenty-seven, which is just an unbelievable statistic. Davydenko gets Nadal in the final, who breezed past Serbian Viktor Troicki. They also played at the last event in 2009, and Davydenko came out on top. Although I've been a doubter in the past, the Russian may finally be developing the confidence to really make a run to a grand slam title. If he handles Nadal as well as he took care of Federer, it'll definitely put him in contention at the Aussie Open.
The semifinals at all four events this week were all populated by top 5 seeds. In Doha, 4th seed Youzhny was missing. In Chennai, it was top seed Soderling. But in Brisbane, all four top seeds have made it this far. Berdych had his hands full with Tomaz Bellucci, but his experience got him through in three. That said, this was one of the best matches I've seen Bellucci play, and he was just points from victory. I think he has the potential to be a top-ten player.
The other quarter in Brisbane was billed as a tougher contest, but was actually less competitive. Roddick and Gasquet both played well in a match that featured tremendous serving, clutch volleying, and and superb shot-making from the back of the court, as well. But Roddick managed a break in the first set (needing eight chances to do so) and then secured the match in the second-set tiebreak. The Frenchman is playing well, but he has yet to return to his top form. Roddick will play Berdych in the semis, and the pair has a close head-to-head record. It should be a good match.
Also in Brisbane, the women's final has been decided, and it was the match-up that everyone was hoping for. Kim Clijsters will take on her compatriot Justine Henin, back to a final in her first tournament in nearly two years. They've played a great deal in the past, with Henin coming out on top more often than not, but you have to give the edge to Clijsters based solely on recent form.
There's a third Belgian woman in a final this week, amazingly. Yanina Wickmayer will face top-seeded Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. It's good to see her shaking off the minor drug scandal that could have proved to be quite a distraction at the end of last season.
In Chennai, Janko Tipsarevic, who has been frustrated by the success of his compatriot Djokovic (or at least his own relative lack of it) beat young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker, who has had an amazing run in his first tournament of the year. He'll playing defending champ Marin Cilic in the semis, for the privilege of playing the winner of Dudi Sela and Stan Wawrinka. It's tough to bet against a Wawrinka-Cilic final at this point, but as we've seen, upsets do happen.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
4th Round at Wimbledon 2009
The best day in Tennis: the rounds of 32 at the All-England Club. All of the remaining 64 men and women will be in action after a day off on the middle Sunday. Since the first week didn't present us with too many big upsets, we start off the business end of the tournament with some excellent matches.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
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