The two finals taking place tomorrow are both looking like good matches, and I got three out of the four competitors correct. Golubev and Melzer face off in Hamburg - it's Golubev's second final of his career, and Melzer is the only player who can fight off whatever bad juju was bringing down the seeds throughout the week. Despite his recent run of excellent form, the veteran Melzer only has two titles to his name. He's made eight finals, so that's not exactly an encouraging record. This should be an interesting match, because if Golubev can feel his racket on the ball and finds a way to hit through Melzer, he may just come off with a victory. Of course, Golubev has just come out of nowhere in this tournament, while Melzer has been playing great lately. In a pressure situation, Melzer's confidence may just carry him through to the finish, even if Golubev comes out playing well. It'll be tough for the young Kazakh to perform at the level he'll need to on such a big stage.
And speaking of form, Mardy Fish is absolutely on fire. He pulled out a really tough win over top seed Andy Roddick today, thanks in no small part to his increased fitness since his surgery. This resurgence has been in the works all year, but Fish is currently on a nine-match winning streak, and he is playing as well as I've seen him. Unfortunately for him, the guy he faces tomorrow is one of the best at throwing players off their rhythm. John Isner has some interesting x-factors going for him, as well. Playing in his first tournament since becoming a part of tennis history, he's into the final. He's also in his own backyard, having played NCAA tennis for the Georga Bulldogs. It will be interesting to see if Fish can get his game going, with Isner banging serves past him - if Mardy can neutralize Isner's serve, and he did that pretty well against Roddick - then he'll come away with the victory, for sure. But if Isner serves as well as he's capable, keeps Mardy from getting any rhythm on return, he could catch Fish on an off-game or get to a tiebreak - and at that point, anything can happen.
Both of these matches mean a lot to all of the players involved, and there are some interesting storylines at play. And the summer season is just getting started!
Showing posts with label isner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label isner. Show all posts
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Friday, June 25, 2010
Wimbledon Day 4
Despite the fact that today marked the Queen of England's first visit to Wimbledon in 33 years, the story of the day was the conclusion of the epic match between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut. It was a thrilling spectacle, and has gotten a lot of media attention from all over the world - this was so out of the ordinary, so out of what had been considered the realm of the possible, that it got the attention of people who don't even think about tennis. I was impressed both with the two players amazing physical conditioning and mental constitutions, but I was also impressed by the fact that the match was won by Isner, not lost by Mahut. In that last game, Isner earned his break chance with a spectacular forehand winner, and cracked a backhand pass down the line to seal the match. I hope his body isn't completely wrecked, because he earned more than a first-round win today.
It's tough to imagine, but there was actually a lot of other stuff going on around the grounds today. Rafael Nadal met a stern test from young Robin Haase, who managed to play two spectacular sets, but couldn't keep up that level of play. Still, if Haase can reproduce the form he generated to take two sets off the world number one, there's no reason not to expect his ranking will rise dramatically.
Dolgopolov is another young, relatively unknown player who tested one of the top dogs. JW Tsonga managed to win 10-8 in the fifth, which would be impressive if it had occurred on a different day. I expect that we'll be seeing more of the 21-year old Ukrainian as well. So, no upsets in those two matches, but sneak previews of a couple players with potentially very bright futures.
In other action, Svetlana Kuznetsova continued her dramatic slide by losing in three sets to Anastasia Rodionova. And top doubles team Nestor and Zimonjic barely escaped against British duo Murray/Marray (love the pairing) by winning 15-13 in the fifth. Again, if it had happened on any other day... with so many of the top contenders struggling, and all the crazy matches and comebacks that have taken place, it's easy to say that this is the most exciting first week at Wimbledon in a long time.
We'll see if the streak can continue tomorrow, and the schedule of play is appetizing, I have to say. As third round action begins, we start to see the first seeds clashing, when both of them have made it this far.
Justine Henin plays Nadia Petrova, which could be tough - even though Justine has a 13-2 record against the Russian, including a straight sets win earlier this year at the Australian Open. And Kim Clijsters plays Maria Kirilenko, and Kim is 2-0, so those players are somewhat less familiar with each other's games. Jankovic and Bondarenko play each other, and Venus and Kleybanova. Jankovic has dominated Bondarenko, but Venus and Kleybanova are 1-1. That's some pretty great action for the third round of a grand slam.
And things only get better on the men's side. Hewitt plays Monfils in a match that should feature a ton of running. Hewitt is certainly in the better form and has a vastly superior grass court record, but Monfils leads the head-to-head 2-1. I think I give Hewitt the edge here based on recent performance, but Monfils likes the big stage, and if he can make a couple of crazy shots - and Hewitt will make him try them - then that will fire him up and could get him over the finish line.
And then Roger Federer plays Arnaud Clement, who has won three matches against Federer, but none since 2001. And though Clement made the quarterfinals here two years ago, he's on the wrong side of 30 and it's tough to see him really challenging Federer. On the other hand, Fed's form has not been great thus far, and the thing that seems to give him the most trouble is when a player gets a lot of his balls back in play, which is something that Clement can do. If Federer has to hit too shots, the chances of him shanking go up dramatically. Clement may win a set, but Federer comes through here.
Andy Roddick plays German Phillipp Kohlschreiber. Despite the fact that Roddick leads the head to head 2-1, Kohls won their latest meeting, in a tight five-set match at the 2008 Australian Open. Roddick lost that one by being too passive and waiting for his opponent to break down, a mistake which Roddick has learned to avoid more often than not since then. Roddick knows that his opponent can be dangerous, so he'll be looking to take the game to the German, and Kohlschreiber should be more tired than Roddick, needing a long five-set match to best his last opponent, Teimuraz Gabashvili. I like Roddick in this one.
There are other great players in action - Youzhny against Mathieu, Berdych against Istomin, and Lopez against Melzer. And of course, John Isner has to play his second round match against Thiemo De Bakker. I wonder if we're going to get another day as exciting as we've had in three of the last four, or if we're going to get a relatively humdrum and straightforward day of tennis. In some ways, I could almost use the break.
It's tough to imagine, but there was actually a lot of other stuff going on around the grounds today. Rafael Nadal met a stern test from young Robin Haase, who managed to play two spectacular sets, but couldn't keep up that level of play. Still, if Haase can reproduce the form he generated to take two sets off the world number one, there's no reason not to expect his ranking will rise dramatically.
Dolgopolov is another young, relatively unknown player who tested one of the top dogs. JW Tsonga managed to win 10-8 in the fifth, which would be impressive if it had occurred on a different day. I expect that we'll be seeing more of the 21-year old Ukrainian as well. So, no upsets in those two matches, but sneak previews of a couple players with potentially very bright futures.
In other action, Svetlana Kuznetsova continued her dramatic slide by losing in three sets to Anastasia Rodionova. And top doubles team Nestor and Zimonjic barely escaped against British duo Murray/Marray (love the pairing) by winning 15-13 in the fifth. Again, if it had happened on any other day... with so many of the top contenders struggling, and all the crazy matches and comebacks that have taken place, it's easy to say that this is the most exciting first week at Wimbledon in a long time.
We'll see if the streak can continue tomorrow, and the schedule of play is appetizing, I have to say. As third round action begins, we start to see the first seeds clashing, when both of them have made it this far.
Justine Henin plays Nadia Petrova, which could be tough - even though Justine has a 13-2 record against the Russian, including a straight sets win earlier this year at the Australian Open. And Kim Clijsters plays Maria Kirilenko, and Kim is 2-0, so those players are somewhat less familiar with each other's games. Jankovic and Bondarenko play each other, and Venus and Kleybanova. Jankovic has dominated Bondarenko, but Venus and Kleybanova are 1-1. That's some pretty great action for the third round of a grand slam.
And things only get better on the men's side. Hewitt plays Monfils in a match that should feature a ton of running. Hewitt is certainly in the better form and has a vastly superior grass court record, but Monfils leads the head-to-head 2-1. I think I give Hewitt the edge here based on recent performance, but Monfils likes the big stage, and if he can make a couple of crazy shots - and Hewitt will make him try them - then that will fire him up and could get him over the finish line.
And then Roger Federer plays Arnaud Clement, who has won three matches against Federer, but none since 2001. And though Clement made the quarterfinals here two years ago, he's on the wrong side of 30 and it's tough to see him really challenging Federer. On the other hand, Fed's form has not been great thus far, and the thing that seems to give him the most trouble is when a player gets a lot of his balls back in play, which is something that Clement can do. If Federer has to hit too shots, the chances of him shanking go up dramatically. Clement may win a set, but Federer comes through here.
Andy Roddick plays German Phillipp Kohlschreiber. Despite the fact that Roddick leads the head to head 2-1, Kohls won their latest meeting, in a tight five-set match at the 2008 Australian Open. Roddick lost that one by being too passive and waiting for his opponent to break down, a mistake which Roddick has learned to avoid more often than not since then. Roddick knows that his opponent can be dangerous, so he'll be looking to take the game to the German, and Kohlschreiber should be more tired than Roddick, needing a long five-set match to best his last opponent, Teimuraz Gabashvili. I like Roddick in this one.
There are other great players in action - Youzhny against Mathieu, Berdych against Istomin, and Lopez against Melzer. And of course, John Isner has to play his second round match against Thiemo De Bakker. I wonder if we're going to get another day as exciting as we've had in three of the last four, or if we're going to get a relatively humdrum and straightforward day of tennis. In some ways, I could almost use the break.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Wimbledon Day 3
In the third day of action at Wimbledon, there was only one story that really mattered: the colossal, stupendous, unbelievable fifth set between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut. It has, by itself, gone on longer than any entire match in Wimbledon history, eclipsing - nay, shattering - dozens of records in the process, and getting so far away from them that it is almost a certainty that these new records will never be surpassed so long as tennis continues to be played.
It's difficult to come up with enough superlatives to describe this match, and it's not even over. Tied at 59-all in the fifth set, the match was suspended on account of darkness for the second time, something which has certainly never happened before without inclement weather being involved. Both players have demolished the record for aces served in a match, with both players on the verge of breaking triple-digits. It's really stunning, and a testament both to the mental fortitude and physical exertion that this sport requires.
For the last forty games or so, Isner looked exhausted. Even though he's fit, he's also a much bigger guy than Mahut is, so continuing to move is tougher for him. But despite not moving his feet and barely even seeming able to walk across the court, Isner kept demolishing serves and blasting forehands, no matter how physically spent he was. Mahut was the fresher player, but there's a reason he's ranked outside the top hundred. It'll be fascinating to see what happens tomorrow - how sore the players are, what their strategies are going to be. Isner has the advantage, serving first. With the break to rest up, I think he'll pull out the win, but in a way, it doesn't matter, because whoever comes out on top will be spent for their next match.
In other, far less interesting news, Davydenko lost to German Daniel Brands. That was the biggest upset of the day, and one of the only results not on court 18 worth talking about. Melanie Oudin and Mardy Fish also lost, so despite Isner's tremendous effort, it was not a great day for Americans. Fish was talking like James Blake after the match, as well. Seemingly aware of the fact that his best days are behind him, he said it was disappointing to have never reached the second week at Wimbledon. And while he is right, I think he still has a shot - albeit an outside one - in the next couple of years.
The best performance by an American came from Andy Roddick, who started the match against Michael Llodra getting brutalized by the Frenchman's big serving and clever net play. But Llodra couldn't keep up his level, and Roddick snuck out the second set, ran away with the third, and dominated the tiebreak in the fourth. It was a smart, strong, and savvy performance from last year's finalist. He also got a bit of a break when his next opponent was decided by a long, brutal slugfest (though those words may have lost some meaning thanks to Isner and Mahut) between Gabashvili and Kohlschreiber. Gabashvili was the more potentially dangerous foe, and he lost 9-7 to the German. Despite a loss to Kohls at the Aussie Open a few years ago, Roddick should be handle what he has to offer.
Tomorrow, there will be some tennis taking place other than the match between Isner and Mahut, shockingly. Murray faces Jarkko Nieminen on center court, likely to be in front of the queen. Nadal and Robin Haase will play third, with the surprising choice of Wozniacki and Chang in the middle. Okay, but you do know that defending champ Serena Williams is playing tomorrow too, right? Oh, she's on court 2. Okay. I won't speculate further on the reasoning behind that decision, because scheduling is very difficult, but it does strike me as odd.
Court 1 should feature a bevy of aces, as Maria Sharapova, Robin Soderling, and Sam Querrey are all in action. I expect all three to get through their matches. There are other good players in action tomorrow - Tsonga, Ferrer, Kuznetsova, Azarenka... but there don't appear to be many obviously exciting match-ups. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't be great tennis, but it's hard for me to get really pumped for Martin Fischer v. Tomaz Bellucci or Xavier Malisse v. Julien Reister. The top half of the men's draw and the bottom half of the women's draw seems to be a lot more exciting, if not necessarily stronger.
What could possibly follow up the spectacle of Day 3 at Wimbledon 2010? Can Isner and Mahut ever finish their match? What other surprises will the day bring?
It's difficult to come up with enough superlatives to describe this match, and it's not even over. Tied at 59-all in the fifth set, the match was suspended on account of darkness for the second time, something which has certainly never happened before without inclement weather being involved. Both players have demolished the record for aces served in a match, with both players on the verge of breaking triple-digits. It's really stunning, and a testament both to the mental fortitude and physical exertion that this sport requires.
For the last forty games or so, Isner looked exhausted. Even though he's fit, he's also a much bigger guy than Mahut is, so continuing to move is tougher for him. But despite not moving his feet and barely even seeming able to walk across the court, Isner kept demolishing serves and blasting forehands, no matter how physically spent he was. Mahut was the fresher player, but there's a reason he's ranked outside the top hundred. It'll be fascinating to see what happens tomorrow - how sore the players are, what their strategies are going to be. Isner has the advantage, serving first. With the break to rest up, I think he'll pull out the win, but in a way, it doesn't matter, because whoever comes out on top will be spent for their next match.
In other, far less interesting news, Davydenko lost to German Daniel Brands. That was the biggest upset of the day, and one of the only results not on court 18 worth talking about. Melanie Oudin and Mardy Fish also lost, so despite Isner's tremendous effort, it was not a great day for Americans. Fish was talking like James Blake after the match, as well. Seemingly aware of the fact that his best days are behind him, he said it was disappointing to have never reached the second week at Wimbledon. And while he is right, I think he still has a shot - albeit an outside one - in the next couple of years.
The best performance by an American came from Andy Roddick, who started the match against Michael Llodra getting brutalized by the Frenchman's big serving and clever net play. But Llodra couldn't keep up his level, and Roddick snuck out the second set, ran away with the third, and dominated the tiebreak in the fourth. It was a smart, strong, and savvy performance from last year's finalist. He also got a bit of a break when his next opponent was decided by a long, brutal slugfest (though those words may have lost some meaning thanks to Isner and Mahut) between Gabashvili and Kohlschreiber. Gabashvili was the more potentially dangerous foe, and he lost 9-7 to the German. Despite a loss to Kohls at the Aussie Open a few years ago, Roddick should be handle what he has to offer.
Tomorrow, there will be some tennis taking place other than the match between Isner and Mahut, shockingly. Murray faces Jarkko Nieminen on center court, likely to be in front of the queen. Nadal and Robin Haase will play third, with the surprising choice of Wozniacki and Chang in the middle. Okay, but you do know that defending champ Serena Williams is playing tomorrow too, right? Oh, she's on court 2. Okay. I won't speculate further on the reasoning behind that decision, because scheduling is very difficult, but it does strike me as odd.
Court 1 should feature a bevy of aces, as Maria Sharapova, Robin Soderling, and Sam Querrey are all in action. I expect all three to get through their matches. There are other good players in action tomorrow - Tsonga, Ferrer, Kuznetsova, Azarenka... but there don't appear to be many obviously exciting match-ups. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't be great tennis, but it's hard for me to get really pumped for Martin Fischer v. Tomaz Bellucci or Xavier Malisse v. Julien Reister. The top half of the men's draw and the bottom half of the women's draw seems to be a lot more exciting, if not necessarily stronger.
What could possibly follow up the spectacle of Day 3 at Wimbledon 2010? Can Isner and Mahut ever finish their match? What other surprises will the day bring?
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Madrid Third Round
In second round action in Madrid, there was really only one upset to speak of, and it wasn't even on the men's side! Serena Williams lost to Nadia Petrova, way out on court three. This is not a tremendous surprise, because Petrova started the year red hot, and may just now be getting her game back. But I also can't imagine that Serena was terribly excited about the situation, playing on court three as WTA world number one. Maybe she just wanted to head off to France and enjoy some more time off. At least, it was something that was on her mind. Her sister won, though.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Week 18 Review and Madrid Preview
All three of the men's ATP finals which took place today were good matches. All three went through three tight sets, and it was a question about who was going to take the title in all three matches until the very end.
The all-American showdown in Belgrade was probably the most exciting, because Isner was actually up a set and a break, serving at 5-3 in the second set, and even had a match point on serve. You've got to give that to someone who serves as big as Isner, almost every time. But Isner cracked under the pressure, lost the second set in a tiebreak, and then lost the third set by a single break. Querrey was just a bit more solid, in the final summation.
The same could be said for the other two winners. Frederico Gil looked to be down and out, when Albert Montanes ran away with the first set and looked ready to win the second. But he snuck out a victory in the tiebreak and then broke to start the third. Gil was unable to become the first Portuguese player to win an ATP tournament, as Montanes won the third set 7-5. Shame for the hometown boy. Cilic-Youzhny was not quite as topsy-turvy. The Russian seemed to be the stronger throughout most of the match, and he came out on top in the end. Really good day of tennis.
Looking ahead to Madrid, you've got nine of the top twelve players appearing. Del Potro and Davydenko are still out with injury, while Djokovic is suffering from an illness and/or allergies. Still, it's a pretty stacked field.
Roger Federer has had an abysmal season, after his win at the Australian Open. His inability to even take the title in Estoril of all places, losing to the 31st-ranked Montanes in the semifinals. With that in mind, he has to be both anxious for a win here in Madrid, but also something of a long shot, considering his current form.
And the draw he got is not doing him any favors. After a first-round bye, he'll face either Benjamin Becker or wildcard and former French Open champion Carlos Moya. After that, it's likely that he'll get Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka, who beat him on clay last year. And no matter who his quarterfinal opponent might be, it's going to be a bear of a match. He could face Youzhny, Gulbis, Montanes, or Andy Roddick. Gulbis-Montanes is one of the great opening round matches, but to have three players in this section of the draw coming in with winning streaks, and then the hottest young player on the tour, all in the same group, could spell trouble for Roger.
The second quarter of the draw has Andy Murray as the top seed, who hasn't had a much better season, post-Aussie Open. His section of the draw is mildly less brutal, but it's still no cakewalk. He may open against Cuevas or Chela, two clay-court stalwarts, and then potentially Sam Querrey, who just bagged his first title on clay. He could also get either Igor Andreev or Victor Hanescu in the third round. And then, in the quarterfinals, he may get either Cilic or Ferrer. The outside possibilities for his quarterfinal opponent include the third Swiss player in the draw, Marco Chiudinelli, or his first-round opponent Marcos Baghdatis. That's another cracker of a match tomorrow.
Because the second, fifth, and sixth-ranked players are out of the tournament, the fourth seed here this week is Robin Soderling, who has a quarter all to himself. So far, he hasn't shown the kind of form he would need to get back to the French Open final again. His nemesis so far this year, Fernando Verdasco, is also slated to be his quarterfinal opponent. But before he even gets there, he'll have to win against either Nicolas Almagro or Viktor Troicki, and then Juan Monaco or Tomaz Bellucci. That's almost as close to a group of clay-court ringers as you could get. And the wildcard in this section of the draw is David Nalbandian, who opens against the tall Czech Tomas Berdych. That is my pick for the best first-round match, by the way. And Verdasco has to face Ivo Karlovic in his first match. Almost anyone could find their way out of his quarter.
Because of Djokovic's absence, Nadal is back to his usual place as the second seed. And not only is he the favorite to win the tournament, he's also been gifted the best draw. He'll probably open against perennial underachiever Andreas Seppi, after which he may get John Isner or Phillip Kohlschreiber. No threats so far. His quartefinal opponent is likely to be Tsonga, who he beat without too much trouble early in the year. Gael Monfils is also in that section, but he hasn't played in so long, who knows how his form will be this week.
Except for Nadal, it's tough for me to see any of the other top four seeds making it to the semifinals. So this tournament is pretty wide open, in terms of getting to face Nadal. I don't know who's going to be able to beat him. It's always a possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point, unless you just like really long odds.
The all-American showdown in Belgrade was probably the most exciting, because Isner was actually up a set and a break, serving at 5-3 in the second set, and even had a match point on serve. You've got to give that to someone who serves as big as Isner, almost every time. But Isner cracked under the pressure, lost the second set in a tiebreak, and then lost the third set by a single break. Querrey was just a bit more solid, in the final summation.
The same could be said for the other two winners. Frederico Gil looked to be down and out, when Albert Montanes ran away with the first set and looked ready to win the second. But he snuck out a victory in the tiebreak and then broke to start the third. Gil was unable to become the first Portuguese player to win an ATP tournament, as Montanes won the third set 7-5. Shame for the hometown boy. Cilic-Youzhny was not quite as topsy-turvy. The Russian seemed to be the stronger throughout most of the match, and he came out on top in the end. Really good day of tennis.
Looking ahead to Madrid, you've got nine of the top twelve players appearing. Del Potro and Davydenko are still out with injury, while Djokovic is suffering from an illness and/or allergies. Still, it's a pretty stacked field.
Roger Federer has had an abysmal season, after his win at the Australian Open. His inability to even take the title in Estoril of all places, losing to the 31st-ranked Montanes in the semifinals. With that in mind, he has to be both anxious for a win here in Madrid, but also something of a long shot, considering his current form.
And the draw he got is not doing him any favors. After a first-round bye, he'll face either Benjamin Becker or wildcard and former French Open champion Carlos Moya. After that, it's likely that he'll get Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka, who beat him on clay last year. And no matter who his quarterfinal opponent might be, it's going to be a bear of a match. He could face Youzhny, Gulbis, Montanes, or Andy Roddick. Gulbis-Montanes is one of the great opening round matches, but to have three players in this section of the draw coming in with winning streaks, and then the hottest young player on the tour, all in the same group, could spell trouble for Roger.
The second quarter of the draw has Andy Murray as the top seed, who hasn't had a much better season, post-Aussie Open. His section of the draw is mildly less brutal, but it's still no cakewalk. He may open against Cuevas or Chela, two clay-court stalwarts, and then potentially Sam Querrey, who just bagged his first title on clay. He could also get either Igor Andreev or Victor Hanescu in the third round. And then, in the quarterfinals, he may get either Cilic or Ferrer. The outside possibilities for his quarterfinal opponent include the third Swiss player in the draw, Marco Chiudinelli, or his first-round opponent Marcos Baghdatis. That's another cracker of a match tomorrow.
Because the second, fifth, and sixth-ranked players are out of the tournament, the fourth seed here this week is Robin Soderling, who has a quarter all to himself. So far, he hasn't shown the kind of form he would need to get back to the French Open final again. His nemesis so far this year, Fernando Verdasco, is also slated to be his quarterfinal opponent. But before he even gets there, he'll have to win against either Nicolas Almagro or Viktor Troicki, and then Juan Monaco or Tomaz Bellucci. That's almost as close to a group of clay-court ringers as you could get. And the wildcard in this section of the draw is David Nalbandian, who opens against the tall Czech Tomas Berdych. That is my pick for the best first-round match, by the way. And Verdasco has to face Ivo Karlovic in his first match. Almost anyone could find their way out of his quarter.
Because of Djokovic's absence, Nadal is back to his usual place as the second seed. And not only is he the favorite to win the tournament, he's also been gifted the best draw. He'll probably open against perennial underachiever Andreas Seppi, after which he may get John Isner or Phillip Kohlschreiber. No threats so far. His quartefinal opponent is likely to be Tsonga, who he beat without too much trouble early in the year. Gael Monfils is also in that section, but he hasn't played in so long, who knows how his form will be this week.
Except for Nadal, it's tough for me to see any of the other top four seeds making it to the semifinals. So this tournament is pretty wide open, in terms of getting to face Nadal. I don't know who's going to be able to beat him. It's always a possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point, unless you just like really long odds.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Week 18 Semifinals
Of the three ATP tournaments going on this week, two of them are going according to plan, more or less. Not much of particular excitement is taking place in either Estoril or Munich, but we'll address their semifinal lineups momentarily, anyway. First of all, I want to talk about one of the most exciting quarterfinal days we've had all year, at the Serbia Open in Belgrade.
The day opened with John Isner against Richard Gasquet. Despite Gasquet's lower ranking, there was little doubt that he was the favorite. He was the much more accomplished clay court player, and his game should have been suited to the surface. The first set was something of a rout, with Isner losing his serve twice and not even getting a break point against the Frenchman. The second set was tight, and got all the way to 5-all in the tiebreak. At this point, the story was that Isner should have folded under the pressure, but he held tough, took the set, and then won the third 6-3. It's a big win for the American, who has decided he doesn't want to believe the talk about U.S. players or big servers not being able to play on the clay.
The other American in action, Sam Querrey, had a match that I would have bet on him to lose. He took the first set and lost the second, then got up two breaks in the third set. At that point, he completely choked while serving for the match, and let the Russian Igor Andreev get back into the match. It looked similar to his loss in Rome, where he served for the match and was broken. However, here, Sam recovered and managed to serve it out in the second time of asking. Kudos to Querrey for getting out of his own way and winning.
The middle match was supposed to be the highlight, and it was probably the tightest match of the day. Stanislas Wawrinka, a very good clay-court player, was taking on a local favorite, so Viktor Troicki knew he had the crowd behind him. The match went 7-5, 6-7(3), 7-6(6). Wawrinka saved three match points in the third set. It was really a deflating loss for the Serbian fans, but it was nothing compared to what happened in the night match.
Novak Djokovic was slated to play Serbian teenager and wildcard Filip Krajinovic, and he sort of did - for a set. I don't think Djokovic was in any shape to play any kidn of tennis, but he showed up and did his best for a set, because he's the owner of the tournament. This is such a weird situation, but kudos to Djokovic for giving the fans something to see, even if it wasn't what they were hoping for. And it's a lucky break for Krajinovic, who had never won an ATP match before this week and whose previous loss came to a player ranked outside the top 450 in the world. Unless Sam Querrey loses his mind, then Krajinovic is going to get smoked in the semis. The match between Isner and Wawrinka is much more exciting. That one could go either way.
In any case, looking over to Estoril, things have gotten exceptionally boring. I mentioned at the beginning of the week that the only two players who could challenge Federer are Monfils and Ljubicic, who both withdrew before play began. That means that the second-highest ranked player in this tournament is Albert Montanes, ranked 30 places below Federer. That will be Fed's opponent tomorrow, but really, there isn't anyone left who should trouble Roger. A win is a win, but it's almost like he's winning a minor-league event at this point. I don't know how much momentum he can expect to get from notching wins over these guys, who - all respect to their capabilities - are relative scrubs.
There's some potential drama in Munich, at least, as Marcos Baghdatis, who had never been much of a clay court player before, won his match against the top German player, Philipp Kohlschreiber. But the German fans in the audience did get to see one of their own make it through, as Philipp Petzschner upset Tomas Berdych. These players will face the two men are now the favorites to meet in the final, Marin Cilic and Mikhail Youzhny. That could be an exciting match-up. We'll see how things shake out. Cilic has still been a bit shaky, but seems to be more confident than he has been in quite a few weeks.
On the women's tour, Serena Williams was doing her best Roger Federer impersonation in Rome. She lost to Jelena Jankovic, after being up a break in the third set, having a match point on serve, and then being up a mini-break in the third set tiebreak. It's an impressive fightback from Jankovic, who has now beaten both William Sisters back to back, but really a disappointing performance from Serena. Still, does she really need to win Rome again? We'll see how she bounces back in the coming weeks. Jankovic could have faced a resurgent Ana Ivanovic in the final, but her run was upset by another player having a dream week, 26th ranked Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez. Not quite the blockbuster final that the organizers were hoping for, but it's good to see Jankovic playing well again.
The day opened with John Isner against Richard Gasquet. Despite Gasquet's lower ranking, there was little doubt that he was the favorite. He was the much more accomplished clay court player, and his game should have been suited to the surface. The first set was something of a rout, with Isner losing his serve twice and not even getting a break point against the Frenchman. The second set was tight, and got all the way to 5-all in the tiebreak. At this point, the story was that Isner should have folded under the pressure, but he held tough, took the set, and then won the third 6-3. It's a big win for the American, who has decided he doesn't want to believe the talk about U.S. players or big servers not being able to play on the clay.
The other American in action, Sam Querrey, had a match that I would have bet on him to lose. He took the first set and lost the second, then got up two breaks in the third set. At that point, he completely choked while serving for the match, and let the Russian Igor Andreev get back into the match. It looked similar to his loss in Rome, where he served for the match and was broken. However, here, Sam recovered and managed to serve it out in the second time of asking. Kudos to Querrey for getting out of his own way and winning.
The middle match was supposed to be the highlight, and it was probably the tightest match of the day. Stanislas Wawrinka, a very good clay-court player, was taking on a local favorite, so Viktor Troicki knew he had the crowd behind him. The match went 7-5, 6-7(3), 7-6(6). Wawrinka saved three match points in the third set. It was really a deflating loss for the Serbian fans, but it was nothing compared to what happened in the night match.
Novak Djokovic was slated to play Serbian teenager and wildcard Filip Krajinovic, and he sort of did - for a set. I don't think Djokovic was in any shape to play any kidn of tennis, but he showed up and did his best for a set, because he's the owner of the tournament. This is such a weird situation, but kudos to Djokovic for giving the fans something to see, even if it wasn't what they were hoping for. And it's a lucky break for Krajinovic, who had never won an ATP match before this week and whose previous loss came to a player ranked outside the top 450 in the world. Unless Sam Querrey loses his mind, then Krajinovic is going to get smoked in the semis. The match between Isner and Wawrinka is much more exciting. That one could go either way.
In any case, looking over to Estoril, things have gotten exceptionally boring. I mentioned at the beginning of the week that the only two players who could challenge Federer are Monfils and Ljubicic, who both withdrew before play began. That means that the second-highest ranked player in this tournament is Albert Montanes, ranked 30 places below Federer. That will be Fed's opponent tomorrow, but really, there isn't anyone left who should trouble Roger. A win is a win, but it's almost like he's winning a minor-league event at this point. I don't know how much momentum he can expect to get from notching wins over these guys, who - all respect to their capabilities - are relative scrubs.
There's some potential drama in Munich, at least, as Marcos Baghdatis, who had never been much of a clay court player before, won his match against the top German player, Philipp Kohlschreiber. But the German fans in the audience did get to see one of their own make it through, as Philipp Petzschner upset Tomas Berdych. These players will face the two men are now the favorites to meet in the final, Marin Cilic and Mikhail Youzhny. That could be an exciting match-up. We'll see how things shake out. Cilic has still been a bit shaky, but seems to be more confident than he has been in quite a few weeks.
On the women's tour, Serena Williams was doing her best Roger Federer impersonation in Rome. She lost to Jelena Jankovic, after being up a break in the third set, having a match point on serve, and then being up a mini-break in the third set tiebreak. It's an impressive fightback from Jankovic, who has now beaten both William Sisters back to back, but really a disappointing performance from Serena. Still, does she really need to win Rome again? We'll see how she bounces back in the coming weeks. Jankovic could have faced a resurgent Ana Ivanovic in the final, but her run was upset by another player having a dream week, 26th ranked Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez. Not quite the blockbuster final that the organizers were hoping for, but it's good to see Jankovic playing well again.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Miami Second Round
Well, the upset bug continues as we've taken the tennis action across the country. In the first day of second round action, which is the first match for the men's seeds, a full third of the seeded players lost. Some of these wins were not all that surprising, as number 30 Viktor Troicki losing to wildcard David Nalbandian, but some were absolute shockers, as number 2 Novak Djokovic losing the shortest player in the top 100, 29-year old Olivier Rochus from Belgium.
Thirty-second seed Julien Benneteau also lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky, but that's not too much of an upset, as he was the second-lowest-ranked seed. Last week's champion, Ivan Ljubicic, was forced to retire in his match against Benjamin Becker, even though he was up a set and a game. Well, it looks like the Croat was feeling his 31 years again, after the thrill of winning last week's title wore off.
The last seeded player to be upset was one of many American players to put in an absolutely dismal showing at the last American hardcourt tournament of the season. Sam Querrey lost to Frenchman Jeremy Chardy after winning the first set. In addition to Querrey, Blake lost to Tomaz Bellucci, also after being up a set. Taylor Dent lost to Nadal, but that's not really that surprising a result. And Melanie Oudin was demolished by Vera Zvonareva 6-1, 6-2.
The only Americans who managed their way to victories were Andy Roddick, who beat Igor Andreev in a routine match, and John Isner, who happened to be playing in a match where it was guaranteed an American would win, as he was facing Michael Russel. He was actually outplayed by Russel and won 14 fewer points over the course of the three set match, but he still managed to win two tiebreaks. Credit Isner as the only American who could find a way to win on a day where conditions were tough and the fans must have been little help. With so many rain delays and crappy weather, anyone who was expecting an excited crowd was disappointed.
It's a shame, because for most of these players, this is their best surface, and this was their best chance for a good result until the middle of the summer. One of the good things about the upset bug that was going around the grounds is that it was Andy Roddick's (formerly Novak Djokovic's) quarter of the draw that was decimated, giving Roddick another good chance at a deep run.
There are some good matches tomorrow, and a few more chances to continue the unbelievable run of upsets that has been the order of the day for the past few weeks. Andy Murray plays Mardy Fish, and it will be interesting to if the upset bug or the American failure bug is more at play in that match. Verdasco has been on a pretty poor run since his hard-court title last month, and he plays another small firecracker like Rochus, Israel's Dudi Sela.
The top seeds are also in action. Svetlana Kuznetsova, who barely survived her first match, plays 27th seed Agnes Szavay of Hungary. Look for a potential upset, there. Roger Federer plays lucky loser Nicolas Lapentti, but don't be on the lookout for that match to end in an upset. It's also interesting to note that Rafael Nadal teams up with a partner I've never seen before to play the Bryan Brothers in doubles tomorrow. They lost in their first outing in Indian Wells, so they're hoping to make a better run at this tournament.
Two possible upsets tomorrow feature recently underachieving seeds taking on a couple of young guns, as Gilles Simon takes on Horacio Zeballos and Tomas Berdych takes on Thiemo De Bakker. Outside chance of an upset in either match. Also watch out for Kevin Anderson taking on Stan Wawrinka, Michael Berrer against Feliciano Lopez, and an extremely low possibility for Australian veteran Peter Luczak to upset Robin Soderling.
It almost seems impossible for this tournament to be as crazy as last week in Indian Wells, but we're off to a good start.
Thirty-second seed Julien Benneteau also lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky, but that's not too much of an upset, as he was the second-lowest-ranked seed. Last week's champion, Ivan Ljubicic, was forced to retire in his match against Benjamin Becker, even though he was up a set and a game. Well, it looks like the Croat was feeling his 31 years again, after the thrill of winning last week's title wore off.
The last seeded player to be upset was one of many American players to put in an absolutely dismal showing at the last American hardcourt tournament of the season. Sam Querrey lost to Frenchman Jeremy Chardy after winning the first set. In addition to Querrey, Blake lost to Tomaz Bellucci, also after being up a set. Taylor Dent lost to Nadal, but that's not really that surprising a result. And Melanie Oudin was demolished by Vera Zvonareva 6-1, 6-2.
The only Americans who managed their way to victories were Andy Roddick, who beat Igor Andreev in a routine match, and John Isner, who happened to be playing in a match where it was guaranteed an American would win, as he was facing Michael Russel. He was actually outplayed by Russel and won 14 fewer points over the course of the three set match, but he still managed to win two tiebreaks. Credit Isner as the only American who could find a way to win on a day where conditions were tough and the fans must have been little help. With so many rain delays and crappy weather, anyone who was expecting an excited crowd was disappointed.
It's a shame, because for most of these players, this is their best surface, and this was their best chance for a good result until the middle of the summer. One of the good things about the upset bug that was going around the grounds is that it was Andy Roddick's (formerly Novak Djokovic's) quarter of the draw that was decimated, giving Roddick another good chance at a deep run.
There are some good matches tomorrow, and a few more chances to continue the unbelievable run of upsets that has been the order of the day for the past few weeks. Andy Murray plays Mardy Fish, and it will be interesting to if the upset bug or the American failure bug is more at play in that match. Verdasco has been on a pretty poor run since his hard-court title last month, and he plays another small firecracker like Rochus, Israel's Dudi Sela.
The top seeds are also in action. Svetlana Kuznetsova, who barely survived her first match, plays 27th seed Agnes Szavay of Hungary. Look for a potential upset, there. Roger Federer plays lucky loser Nicolas Lapentti, but don't be on the lookout for that match to end in an upset. It's also interesting to note that Rafael Nadal teams up with a partner I've never seen before to play the Bryan Brothers in doubles tomorrow. They lost in their first outing in Indian Wells, so they're hoping to make a better run at this tournament.
Two possible upsets tomorrow feature recently underachieving seeds taking on a couple of young guns, as Gilles Simon takes on Horacio Zeballos and Tomas Berdych takes on Thiemo De Bakker. Outside chance of an upset in either match. Also watch out for Kevin Anderson taking on Stan Wawrinka, Michael Berrer against Feliciano Lopez, and an extremely low possibility for Australian veteran Peter Luczak to upset Robin Soderling.
It almost seems impossible for this tournament to be as crazy as last week in Indian Wells, but we're off to a good start.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Indian Wells Quarterfinals
The round of sixteen is complete in California, and it was - honestly - not all that exciting. There were two three-set matches, but every single match (except one) was won by the higher-ranked player. The lone upset was an exhausted Novak Djokovic, who fell to Ivan Ljubicic. He did not seem especially saddened or surprised by the loss. Hopefully he'll get some rest and be ready for action again in Miami.
The two three setters were between Nadal-Isner and Robredo-Baghdatis - the second set featured a steamrolling performance by Baggy, but the Spaniard was able to win the other two sets pretty comfortably. I think the Cypriot was hurt by playing so late last night, and he was tired against Robredo, who is doubtless a very physically fit player. Robredo also has the dubious honor of being the best player of the last decade never to make a grand slam semifinal.
The other three-setter was less topsy-turvy. Even though it went three sets, Nadal was in charge against the big-serving American the entire time. He played one loose service game in the second set, and it was done. But other than that, Nadal played his usual imperious game. He went the entire first set without making an unforced error. He then went on to win a doubles match against Llodra and Ram. Isner also went on to win a doubles match, so it's good to see he wasn't discouraged by his loss.
Beyond that, the other round of 16 matches were not terrifically interesting. Almagro was forced to retire in the first game of the second set, after he had started the match on fire, winning the first two games before losing the next seven. It's always a shame when a tough match ends and then the winner has to retire in their subsequent match - for the loser, for the crowd, and for the tournament. James Blake has to be kicking himself right now.
At this point, it's pretty clear which half of the draw is stronger. The remaining players in the top half are seeded 4, 6, 7, and 18. The remaining players in the bottom half are seeded 3, 19, 20, and 21. It's tough to see Nadal losing before the final against Berdych, Ljubicic, or Monaco, considering how well he's played so far. Unless an injure flares up or he comes down bad on a knee, he should make it to Sunday's final.
The story in the top half is more interesting. You have to pick Andy Roddick as the favorite to make it to the semis against Robredo, as the American is 10-0 against Tommy. But Murray and Soderling haven't played in four years, and neither player even resembles who they were in 2006. And then taking the winner of that match against Roddick, to me it may be a bit of a three-way pick-em, but Murray does have to be the favorite. And Soderling is 2-0 against Roddick, who is 3-6 against the other Andy. But Roddick has to be excited with the way the draw is opening up for him. To have all of his potentially troubling opponents get taken out by others - Tiparevic, Monfils, Federer, and Baghdatis. Roddick has not yet played a player who has beaten him even once. He is 22-0 against his first four opponents, coming into the tournament. It's tough to ask for a better road to the final.
It is worth noting that two of the four lower seeds (18-21) have won Masters Series tournaments (Robredo and Berdych), and a third has made multiple finals (Ljubicic). So it's not like they've never been here before. Despite the fact that my draw with my predictions is an absolute shambles, I am really enjoying this tournament and am greatly looking forward to the last three rounds.
The two three setters were between Nadal-Isner and Robredo-Baghdatis - the second set featured a steamrolling performance by Baggy, but the Spaniard was able to win the other two sets pretty comfortably. I think the Cypriot was hurt by playing so late last night, and he was tired against Robredo, who is doubtless a very physically fit player. Robredo also has the dubious honor of being the best player of the last decade never to make a grand slam semifinal.
The other three-setter was less topsy-turvy. Even though it went three sets, Nadal was in charge against the big-serving American the entire time. He played one loose service game in the second set, and it was done. But other than that, Nadal played his usual imperious game. He went the entire first set without making an unforced error. He then went on to win a doubles match against Llodra and Ram. Isner also went on to win a doubles match, so it's good to see he wasn't discouraged by his loss.
Beyond that, the other round of 16 matches were not terrifically interesting. Almagro was forced to retire in the first game of the second set, after he had started the match on fire, winning the first two games before losing the next seven. It's always a shame when a tough match ends and then the winner has to retire in their subsequent match - for the loser, for the crowd, and for the tournament. James Blake has to be kicking himself right now.
At this point, it's pretty clear which half of the draw is stronger. The remaining players in the top half are seeded 4, 6, 7, and 18. The remaining players in the bottom half are seeded 3, 19, 20, and 21. It's tough to see Nadal losing before the final against Berdych, Ljubicic, or Monaco, considering how well he's played so far. Unless an injure flares up or he comes down bad on a knee, he should make it to Sunday's final.
The story in the top half is more interesting. You have to pick Andy Roddick as the favorite to make it to the semis against Robredo, as the American is 10-0 against Tommy. But Murray and Soderling haven't played in four years, and neither player even resembles who they were in 2006. And then taking the winner of that match against Roddick, to me it may be a bit of a three-way pick-em, but Murray does have to be the favorite. And Soderling is 2-0 against Roddick, who is 3-6 against the other Andy. But Roddick has to be excited with the way the draw is opening up for him. To have all of his potentially troubling opponents get taken out by others - Tiparevic, Monfils, Federer, and Baghdatis. Roddick has not yet played a player who has beaten him even once. He is 22-0 against his first four opponents, coming into the tournament. It's tough to ask for a better road to the final.
It is worth noting that two of the four lower seeds (18-21) have won Masters Series tournaments (Robredo and Berdych), and a third has made multiple finals (Ljubicic). So it's not like they've never been here before. Despite the fact that my draw with my predictions is an absolute shambles, I am really enjoying this tournament and am greatly looking forward to the last three rounds.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Indian Wells Tuesday - Stunning Upset!
As the action draws to a close today, we finish what was a day of not all that thrilling tennis, up until the last match. First, a look at the other action around the grounds. Most of the seeded players cruised today. Roddick, Soderling, Murray, and Robredo all made it through without dropping a set. Only Soderling even went to a tiebreak. Tsonga lost a set on route to victory, but it was only a momentary lapse, and Montanes did not really have his teeth in the second and third sets.
The second-last match of the night, between James Blake and Nicolas Almagro, was a tight one, but was marred by some admittedly questionable calls at key moments, and subsequently more frustration than is necessary from Blake. He was playing well, but Almagro was serving bombs and smacking winners off both sides. Usually, Almagro can't keep that up for an entire match, but he was on tonight. It's no shame that James lost, and hopefully he'll be encouraged by the strength of his player this week.
The following match had all of the intensity and none of the controversy, as well as a much more marquee match-up. Twenty-seventh seed Marcos Baghdatis was facing Roger Federer in a rematch of the pair's Australian Open final from 2007. They had faced each other five other times, and Baghdatis was 2-15 in sets against the mighty Fed. When Federer won the first set 7-5 tonight, it looked like it would be more of the same. But Baghdatis fought back. Even though he was down by several match points, he brought the match to a third-set tiebreak and won with a single minibreak, 7-4. It's really a famous victory for the Cypriot, who is playing like he was when he made the top ten. There's no reason he can't find his way back there, if he can keep up this level of play.
As Cara Black and Liezel Huber also lost today, that means that the only top seeds left in the tournament are Nestor and Zimonjic in the men's doubles. This really is an odd tournament, in terms of favorites dropping like flies. Today, the women's side was relatively quiet, with the only upset between Maria Martinez-Sanchez and Yanina Wickmayer, which isn't a huge upset by any means. And Suarez-Navarro and Kleybanova are still on-court, so who knows what will happen there. So far, there have been six breaks in seven games, so Suarez-Navarro is up a hold.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the two halves of the tournament come together. Baghdatis is really at a disadvantage, having had to play so late and then come back tomorrow. Fortunately, he'll be last on Court 2 to play Tommy Robredo, but just based on health, it's going to be a tough ask for the Cypriot to follow up that win.
Also on court 2, Guillermo-Garcia Lopez plays Juan Monaco, which is not quite the match-up that you'd expect this deep into a hardcourt Masters series event. Good for both of these guys for making it this far, though. Unfortunately, they don't have much interest here in the states, so they're up first. Look for that match to be poorly-attended. Next up, Ivan Ljubicic faces Novak Djokovic, and if Djokovic decides to leave the court for a set again this match, expect the veteran Ljubicic to take advantage, unlike Kohlschreiber in the last round. There might be another upset here, depending on whether or not Djokovic shows up. Finally on court 2, Viktor Troicki will play his second game of the tournament against Tomaz Berdych. I'll admit that I don't give Troicki much of a shot here, particularly with how well Berdych played against Verdasco.
On center court, there are some real crackerjack matches. John Isner is playing Rafael Nadal, and though Nadal's knees have not seemed to be troubling him thus far this tournament, the big-hitting giant will give them their sternest test yet. After that, Tsonga and Soderling are playing in the earliest meeting of top ten players in this tournament. Both are playing great, but Soderling has a 2-0 advantage. Tsonga sometimes doesn't handle playing against big servers that well, which is strange since he's one of the best servers on tour. Soderling may have the advantage, but this should be close.
In the night session, both Andys are in action, but not against each other. Andy Roddick faces Austrian Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, who got a walkover from Simon Gruel. Roddick's last opponent had gotten a retirement as well, and it didn't seem to do him much good. But Melzer is a tougher opponent, even though Roddick is 9-0 against him. As Bagdhatis showed today, a dominating head-to-head does not mean a dominating victory. The last match of the day features Andy Murray against Nicolas Almagro. Now Almagro is exactly the type of heavy-hitter who can trouble Murray, and if the Spaniard plays (and particularly serves) as well as he did against Blake, then Murray could be in trouble. But Murray can have a way of blunting those players' power, and getting them off their game enough to start missing. Look for him to do that tomorrow.
One final little NB - Isner and Querrey are playing Karlovic and Vemic in doubles tomorrow. The two biggest players on the tour on opposite sides of the net again.
Really, the latter stages of the tournament begins tomorrow in earnest. I'm anxious to see if the trend of upsets continues.
The second-last match of the night, between James Blake and Nicolas Almagro, was a tight one, but was marred by some admittedly questionable calls at key moments, and subsequently more frustration than is necessary from Blake. He was playing well, but Almagro was serving bombs and smacking winners off both sides. Usually, Almagro can't keep that up for an entire match, but he was on tonight. It's no shame that James lost, and hopefully he'll be encouraged by the strength of his player this week.
The following match had all of the intensity and none of the controversy, as well as a much more marquee match-up. Twenty-seventh seed Marcos Baghdatis was facing Roger Federer in a rematch of the pair's Australian Open final from 2007. They had faced each other five other times, and Baghdatis was 2-15 in sets against the mighty Fed. When Federer won the first set 7-5 tonight, it looked like it would be more of the same. But Baghdatis fought back. Even though he was down by several match points, he brought the match to a third-set tiebreak and won with a single minibreak, 7-4. It's really a famous victory for the Cypriot, who is playing like he was when he made the top ten. There's no reason he can't find his way back there, if he can keep up this level of play.
As Cara Black and Liezel Huber also lost today, that means that the only top seeds left in the tournament are Nestor and Zimonjic in the men's doubles. This really is an odd tournament, in terms of favorites dropping like flies. Today, the women's side was relatively quiet, with the only upset between Maria Martinez-Sanchez and Yanina Wickmayer, which isn't a huge upset by any means. And Suarez-Navarro and Kleybanova are still on-court, so who knows what will happen there. So far, there have been six breaks in seven games, so Suarez-Navarro is up a hold.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the two halves of the tournament come together. Baghdatis is really at a disadvantage, having had to play so late and then come back tomorrow. Fortunately, he'll be last on Court 2 to play Tommy Robredo, but just based on health, it's going to be a tough ask for the Cypriot to follow up that win.
Also on court 2, Guillermo-Garcia Lopez plays Juan Monaco, which is not quite the match-up that you'd expect this deep into a hardcourt Masters series event. Good for both of these guys for making it this far, though. Unfortunately, they don't have much interest here in the states, so they're up first. Look for that match to be poorly-attended. Next up, Ivan Ljubicic faces Novak Djokovic, and if Djokovic decides to leave the court for a set again this match, expect the veteran Ljubicic to take advantage, unlike Kohlschreiber in the last round. There might be another upset here, depending on whether or not Djokovic shows up. Finally on court 2, Viktor Troicki will play his second game of the tournament against Tomaz Berdych. I'll admit that I don't give Troicki much of a shot here, particularly with how well Berdych played against Verdasco.
On center court, there are some real crackerjack matches. John Isner is playing Rafael Nadal, and though Nadal's knees have not seemed to be troubling him thus far this tournament, the big-hitting giant will give them their sternest test yet. After that, Tsonga and Soderling are playing in the earliest meeting of top ten players in this tournament. Both are playing great, but Soderling has a 2-0 advantage. Tsonga sometimes doesn't handle playing against big servers that well, which is strange since he's one of the best servers on tour. Soderling may have the advantage, but this should be close.
In the night session, both Andys are in action, but not against each other. Andy Roddick faces Austrian Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, who got a walkover from Simon Gruel. Roddick's last opponent had gotten a retirement as well, and it didn't seem to do him much good. But Melzer is a tougher opponent, even though Roddick is 9-0 against him. As Bagdhatis showed today, a dominating head-to-head does not mean a dominating victory. The last match of the day features Andy Murray against Nicolas Almagro. Now Almagro is exactly the type of heavy-hitter who can trouble Murray, and if the Spaniard plays (and particularly serves) as well as he did against Blake, then Murray could be in trouble. But Murray can have a way of blunting those players' power, and getting them off their game enough to start missing. Look for him to do that tomorrow.
One final little NB - Isner and Querrey are playing Karlovic and Vemic in doubles tomorrow. The two biggest players on the tour on opposite sides of the net again.
Really, the latter stages of the tournament begins tomorrow in earnest. I'm anxious to see if the trend of upsets continues.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Indian Wells Weekend Wrap-up
We're into the third round at Indian Wells, and things are mostly going as expected. By that, I mean that there have been about as many surprising upsets as one usually finds in a tournament of this size. Three of the favorites on the women's side are already out - Justine Henin fell to Gisela Dulko, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova fell to Carla Suarez Navarro, and Maria Sharapova lost to Jie Zheng. At this point, it's likely that the semifinals could be Clijsters-Azarenka and Dementieva-Wozinacki.
In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.
There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.
David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.
Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.
In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.
Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.
John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.
I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.
In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.
There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.
David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.
Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.
In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.
Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.
John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.
I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Indian Wells Preview
Well, the qualifiers are over, and my predictions about the qualifiers were not quite the best. It just goes to show that anything can happen, and that anyone who pretends to be knowledgeable about these sorts of things really won't do that much (if any better) than chance, most of the time. That said, let's take a look at the main draw and see how far off I can be this time.
This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.
It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.
Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.
The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.
Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.
Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.
In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.
Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.
Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!
This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.
It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.
Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.
The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.
Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.
Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.
In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.
Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.
Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Week 7 Finals Preview
The finals are set for this week 7, and there's going to be at least one new title-winner this year. In France, they've got an all-countrymen final, but it doesn't feature any of the top three Frenchman in the draw, including Tsonga, Monfils, and Simon. But the French crowd should be pretty happy with their final between Benneteau (the eighth seed) and Llodra, who made the final here last year. This is Benneteau's fourth singles final, and he has yet to win one. Llodra lost this final last year, but he has three to his name. His last came in Rotterdam in 2008, where he had beaten Soderling in the final. Coincidentally, Soderling was Llodra's victim in the quarters here in Marseille.
I'm surprised that these two Frenchmen, both in their late twenties, have never played each other on tour before. They played in a futures tournament ten years ago which Llodra won, but it's tough to put much stock in that. Benneteau had the harder road, facing Monfils and Tsonga, while Llodra had to face the relatively minor foe Mischa Zverev in the semis. But Benneteau is the higher-ranked player here, and has been on better form so far this year. This is largely a pick-em, and I hope it will be a good match. It's been a good week for both players, as they are both also in the doubles final, playing together. It should be interesting for them to play that right after completing the singles.
In Buenos Aires, they've got the best match-up they could have hoped for in the final, once David Nalbandian withdrew from the tournament with injury before his quarterfinal against Albert Montanes. Ferrer then steamrolled a well-rested Montanes in the semis, after beating Igor Andreev that same morning, when matches had been pushed back due to rain. Really, that's an astounding performance from Ferrer, to play two-matches in one day, the second against a very well-rested opponent, and win it 6-1, 6-1. He'll be facing Juan Carlos Ferrero, last week's winner in Costa do Sauipe. The only set dropped by either of these players was by Ferrero, inexplicably, in the quarters against Santiago Ventura. The Ferrer-Ferrero rivalry, which is my second-favorite in the sport, name-wise, after Wozniak-Wozniacki, has been pretty one-sided. Ferrer is 5-1 against the older, more experienced Spaniard. Add to that the fact that last year, Ferrer was the highest-ranked player who did not win a title, and the "Bulldog" will be eager to notch his first tour win since the Netherlands in 2008.
An all-French final, an all-Spanish final, and in Memphis, an all-American final. Sam Querrey and John Isner, the two young guns of U.S. Tennis, will be facing here for the first time. They've had very different years up to this tournament, with the tall man winning his first title and going 8-1 to get here. On the other hand, Querrey was 3-4, and is just now getting his record above 500. Querrey is recovering from a pretty terrible arm injury that ended his season last year, so it's good for him to make the final here. While he was struggling to get his year kick-started, Isner was on fire, and ultimately replaced Querrey as the number 2 American behind Andy Roddick. This should also be an interesting match, as these two players are close, and will be playing together in the final after they play against each other in the singles, just like Benneteau and Llodra. I don't know of the last time that's happened twice in the same week, but it hasn't happened recently, to the best of my knowledge.
It's also worth mentioning that Venus Williams won her first title of the year in Dubai, which was also her first successful title defense since Wimbledon in 2007-2008. She beat Victoria Azarenka in the final, and did not drop a set en route to the title. Azarenka may have been the seed that she faced, but it was still an impressive run. Sharapova also won in Memphis without dropping a set, and never even played a tiebreak. She was taken to 7-5 only once, by Elena Baltacha. It's a great way to kick-start the year for both players.
The women's final in Bogata has not yet been decided, and it doesn't feature any big-name players like Sharapova or Venus. But it does have a 20-year old Colombian player named Mariana Duque Marino who may be making her first big splash on the tour level. She's won a bundle of lower-tier ITF titles, but has yet to make much noise at the top. She faces German Angelique Kerber, who is also going for her first overall WTA title. With the home crowd's support, Marino may have the advantage over another first-time finalist. But that's why you play the tennis.
I'm surprised that these two Frenchmen, both in their late twenties, have never played each other on tour before. They played in a futures tournament ten years ago which Llodra won, but it's tough to put much stock in that. Benneteau had the harder road, facing Monfils and Tsonga, while Llodra had to face the relatively minor foe Mischa Zverev in the semis. But Benneteau is the higher-ranked player here, and has been on better form so far this year. This is largely a pick-em, and I hope it will be a good match. It's been a good week for both players, as they are both also in the doubles final, playing together. It should be interesting for them to play that right after completing the singles.
In Buenos Aires, they've got the best match-up they could have hoped for in the final, once David Nalbandian withdrew from the tournament with injury before his quarterfinal against Albert Montanes. Ferrer then steamrolled a well-rested Montanes in the semis, after beating Igor Andreev that same morning, when matches had been pushed back due to rain. Really, that's an astounding performance from Ferrer, to play two-matches in one day, the second against a very well-rested opponent, and win it 6-1, 6-1. He'll be facing Juan Carlos Ferrero, last week's winner in Costa do Sauipe. The only set dropped by either of these players was by Ferrero, inexplicably, in the quarters against Santiago Ventura. The Ferrer-Ferrero rivalry, which is my second-favorite in the sport, name-wise, after Wozniak-Wozniacki, has been pretty one-sided. Ferrer is 5-1 against the older, more experienced Spaniard. Add to that the fact that last year, Ferrer was the highest-ranked player who did not win a title, and the "Bulldog" will be eager to notch his first tour win since the Netherlands in 2008.
An all-French final, an all-Spanish final, and in Memphis, an all-American final. Sam Querrey and John Isner, the two young guns of U.S. Tennis, will be facing here for the first time. They've had very different years up to this tournament, with the tall man winning his first title and going 8-1 to get here. On the other hand, Querrey was 3-4, and is just now getting his record above 500. Querrey is recovering from a pretty terrible arm injury that ended his season last year, so it's good for him to make the final here. While he was struggling to get his year kick-started, Isner was on fire, and ultimately replaced Querrey as the number 2 American behind Andy Roddick. This should also be an interesting match, as these two players are close, and will be playing together in the final after they play against each other in the singles, just like Benneteau and Llodra. I don't know of the last time that's happened twice in the same week, but it hasn't happened recently, to the best of my knowledge.
It's also worth mentioning that Venus Williams won her first title of the year in Dubai, which was also her first successful title defense since Wimbledon in 2007-2008. She beat Victoria Azarenka in the final, and did not drop a set en route to the title. Azarenka may have been the seed that she faced, but it was still an impressive run. Sharapova also won in Memphis without dropping a set, and never even played a tiebreak. She was taken to 7-5 only once, by Elena Baltacha. It's a great way to kick-start the year for both players.
The women's final in Bogata has not yet been decided, and it doesn't feature any big-name players like Sharapova or Venus. But it does have a 20-year old Colombian player named Mariana Duque Marino who may be making her first big splash on the tour level. She's won a bundle of lower-tier ITF titles, but has yet to make much noise at the top. She faces German Angelique Kerber, who is also going for her first overall WTA title. With the home crowd's support, Marino may have the advantage over another first-time finalist. But that's why you play the tennis.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Matches to Watch - Day 2
Well, day one had its fair share of excitement, despite the weather in Melbourne not cooperating. The line-up wasn't completed on any court save for the two covered that had retractable roofs. There were some excellent matches though, and two seeded
players upset.
On the men's side, the upset was not a huge shock, as Radek Stepanek lost to Ivo Karlovic in five sets. It was revenge for the Davis Cup loss last year, so good for Dr. Ivo. It's a shame for Stepanek, who made the final in Brisbane in the lead-up to the Aussie Open. Another player on the men's side who had a good warm-up tournament was Mardy Fish, who took eventual champion Marcos Baghdatis to three tight sets. Fish lost to Andrey Golubev, ranked 131 in the world. It looked like a pretty sloppy match, with both players making at least 50 unforced errors. But Fish hit only 16 winners to Golubev's 44. It may have been the heavy conditions and the frequent rain delays, but Mardy has to be disappointed.
But I bet he's not as disappointed as Maria Sharapova, who lost to friend and fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko. In one of the longest women's matches in Australian Open history, it wasn't Sharapova's double faults that did her in, like at the US Open last year. Eleven is a lot of double faults, but it is half as many as Sharapova had in her loss to Melanie Oudin. It was Sharapova's 77 unforced errors that did it, and when they occurred. She actually won more points than Kirilenko, but she didn't win the ones she needed to.
Other seeds and favorites cruised - the ones that got to play their matches, anyway. In addition to the matches I made note of yesterday that haven't finished yet, here are some other matches to watch on Day 2.
Roger Federer v. Igor Andreev - This is among Federer's tougher first-round matchups at Grand Slams in recent years. Andreev is a big-hitter with one of the biggest forehands in the game. But he knows that's his biggest shot, and he'll go well out of his way to avoid hitting his backhand. Watch for Rajah to send most of his balls to that side, and then hit a ton of winners down the line when Andreev runs around his weaker shot to rip a forehand.
Fernando Verdasco v. Carsten Ball - It's tough to be an up-and-coming young player if you keep getting paired with unreasonably difficult first rounds. Carsten is poised for a breakthrough, but he won't be able to do it against last year's semifinalist and recent winner of the Kooyong exhibition. Verdasco is also a lefty with a big serve, so Ball won't have as much of an advantage as he usually does.
Richard Gasquet v. Mikhail Youzhny - Both of these players are grand slam semifinalists who aren't playing their best tennis at the moment. Both of them are extremely talented, with beautiful one-handed backhands, while both lack the mental fortitude of some of their more successful peers. While Gasquet has the edge in artistry and shot-making ability, Youzhny has more pace on his shots. It should be a good contest.
Christophe Rochus v. Donald Young - While Olivier's match against Fernando Gonzalez didn't turn out to be quite as tight as I thought it might be, the elder, taller, and less successful Rochus has a much better chance against the young American Young. But "the Donald" definitely wants to put his frustrations behind him, and he couldn't have gotten much better than the lesser Rochus brother. While these aren't the two greatest players to meet today, they should still be closely matched, so it could be a good match.
Barbara Zahlavova vs. Virginia Kulikova - A match set to finish from yesterday, these two relatively unknown Eastern Europeans (a Russian and a Czech) are at 4-3 in the third set, after the first two went to tiebreaks. The first breaker was 7-5 and the second was 12-10. Since there's no tiebreaker in the third set, this match could go on all day.
John Isner v. Andreas Seppi - Isner is riding high, having just won his first title, while Seppi is the very talented but easily frustrated Italian player who probably hasn't lived up to his talent. The only concern for Isner in this match is that he may be tired from the last week, but otherwise, he should ace his way past Seppi without a great of trouble.
Also watch for the Williams sisters in action. Serena's first grand slam match after her meltdown in New York should be interesting. I expect that the Australian fans will have (rightly) forgotten about that event, and welcome their defending champion back with open arms.
players upset.
On the men's side, the upset was not a huge shock, as Radek Stepanek lost to Ivo Karlovic in five sets. It was revenge for the Davis Cup loss last year, so good for Dr. Ivo. It's a shame for Stepanek, who made the final in Brisbane in the lead-up to the Aussie Open. Another player on the men's side who had a good warm-up tournament was Mardy Fish, who took eventual champion Marcos Baghdatis to three tight sets. Fish lost to Andrey Golubev, ranked 131 in the world. It looked like a pretty sloppy match, with both players making at least 50 unforced errors. But Fish hit only 16 winners to Golubev's 44. It may have been the heavy conditions and the frequent rain delays, but Mardy has to be disappointed.
But I bet he's not as disappointed as Maria Sharapova, who lost to friend and fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko. In one of the longest women's matches in Australian Open history, it wasn't Sharapova's double faults that did her in, like at the US Open last year. Eleven is a lot of double faults, but it is half as many as Sharapova had in her loss to Melanie Oudin. It was Sharapova's 77 unforced errors that did it, and when they occurred. She actually won more points than Kirilenko, but she didn't win the ones she needed to.
Other seeds and favorites cruised - the ones that got to play their matches, anyway. In addition to the matches I made note of yesterday that haven't finished yet, here are some other matches to watch on Day 2.
Roger Federer v. Igor Andreev - This is among Federer's tougher first-round matchups at Grand Slams in recent years. Andreev is a big-hitter with one of the biggest forehands in the game. But he knows that's his biggest shot, and he'll go well out of his way to avoid hitting his backhand. Watch for Rajah to send most of his balls to that side, and then hit a ton of winners down the line when Andreev runs around his weaker shot to rip a forehand.
Fernando Verdasco v. Carsten Ball - It's tough to be an up-and-coming young player if you keep getting paired with unreasonably difficult first rounds. Carsten is poised for a breakthrough, but he won't be able to do it against last year's semifinalist and recent winner of the Kooyong exhibition. Verdasco is also a lefty with a big serve, so Ball won't have as much of an advantage as he usually does.
Richard Gasquet v. Mikhail Youzhny - Both of these players are grand slam semifinalists who aren't playing their best tennis at the moment. Both of them are extremely talented, with beautiful one-handed backhands, while both lack the mental fortitude of some of their more successful peers. While Gasquet has the edge in artistry and shot-making ability, Youzhny has more pace on his shots. It should be a good contest.
Christophe Rochus v. Donald Young - While Olivier's match against Fernando Gonzalez didn't turn out to be quite as tight as I thought it might be, the elder, taller, and less successful Rochus has a much better chance against the young American Young. But "the Donald" definitely wants to put his frustrations behind him, and he couldn't have gotten much better than the lesser Rochus brother. While these aren't the two greatest players to meet today, they should still be closely matched, so it could be a good match.
Barbara Zahlavova vs. Virginia Kulikova - A match set to finish from yesterday, these two relatively unknown Eastern Europeans (a Russian and a Czech) are at 4-3 in the third set, after the first two went to tiebreaks. The first breaker was 7-5 and the second was 12-10. Since there's no tiebreaker in the third set, this match could go on all day.
John Isner v. Andreas Seppi - Isner is riding high, having just won his first title, while Seppi is the very talented but easily frustrated Italian player who probably hasn't lived up to his talent. The only concern for Isner in this match is that he may be tired from the last week, but otherwise, he should ace his way past Seppi without a great of trouble.
Also watch for the Williams sisters in action. Serena's first grand slam match after her meltdown in New York should be interesting. I expect that the Australian fans will have (rightly) forgotten about that event, and welcome their defending champion back with open arms.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Champions - Week 2
John Isner made his second final yesterday at the Heineken Open in Auckland. He made his first back in 2007 in the Washington, DC Legg Mason Classic. In that tournament, he had won five consecutive third-set tiebreaks before he lost to Andy Roddick in straight sets in the final. This week, he didn't have to play a single third-set tiebreak until the final against Arnaud Clement. But he almost didn't get there.
Isner was cruising on serve, having taken the first set and serving to get into a second-set tiebreak. That was how he had beaten Albert Montanes in the semis. But Clement is a more accomplished hardcourt player than Montanes was, and his experience started to show. Leading 6-5, Clement did the impossible and broke Isner to take the match to a decisive third set.
In the third, Isner was serving again at 5-6, and he got down a break point, which happened to be a match point. It seemed like the pressure of winning his first title had gotten to him, and Clement might take his first title since 2006. (Oddly enough, Clement's last win came at the DC tournament where Isner made the final a year later) But Isner showed that he is developing and maturing as a player, and he saved the break point with a clutch serve-and-volley play followed by a decisive smash. The way he saved the break point was key, since it wasn't a Clement error or an easy ace. It gave him the confidence to run away with the tiebreak, 7-2. Congrats to the big man.
I was surprised to see that the final in Sydney was nowhere near as exciting. Gasquet could not find his form again, after he had looked flat against Benneteau in the semis. Richard had been playing amazing tennis for the first three rounds, but then he lost his edge. He still managed to beat his countryman, but it wasn't anywhere near enough to beat a fired-up Baghdatis in the final. Gasquet started the match by giving his serve away, and never managed to break Baggy in that set. The match was tighter in the second, after a rain delay, but Gasquet couldn't bring his best in the tiebreak.
This isn't a bad loss for Gasquet, since Baghdatis is a former top-ten player who looks like he's on his way back. This is Gasquet's first final since 2008, but he hasn't won a title since 2007. He needs to be able to get back to that next level, which we know he's capable of doing, in order to be back among the game's elite.
But kudos to Baghdatis, who was able to come back from his exhausting semifinal with Mardy Fish in excellent form. After quite a few years of playing sub-standard tennis, he looks like he's the real deal. I would say that the other players in his section of the draw at the Australian Open should watch out.
Isner was cruising on serve, having taken the first set and serving to get into a second-set tiebreak. That was how he had beaten Albert Montanes in the semis. But Clement is a more accomplished hardcourt player than Montanes was, and his experience started to show. Leading 6-5, Clement did the impossible and broke Isner to take the match to a decisive third set.
In the third, Isner was serving again at 5-6, and he got down a break point, which happened to be a match point. It seemed like the pressure of winning his first title had gotten to him, and Clement might take his first title since 2006. (Oddly enough, Clement's last win came at the DC tournament where Isner made the final a year later) But Isner showed that he is developing and maturing as a player, and he saved the break point with a clutch serve-and-volley play followed by a decisive smash. The way he saved the break point was key, since it wasn't a Clement error or an easy ace. It gave him the confidence to run away with the tiebreak, 7-2. Congrats to the big man.
I was surprised to see that the final in Sydney was nowhere near as exciting. Gasquet could not find his form again, after he had looked flat against Benneteau in the semis. Richard had been playing amazing tennis for the first three rounds, but then he lost his edge. He still managed to beat his countryman, but it wasn't anywhere near enough to beat a fired-up Baghdatis in the final. Gasquet started the match by giving his serve away, and never managed to break Baggy in that set. The match was tighter in the second, after a rain delay, but Gasquet couldn't bring his best in the tiebreak.
This isn't a bad loss for Gasquet, since Baghdatis is a former top-ten player who looks like he's on his way back. This is Gasquet's first final since 2008, but he hasn't won a title since 2007. He needs to be able to get back to that next level, which we know he's capable of doing, in order to be back among the game's elite.
But kudos to Baghdatis, who was able to come back from his exhausting semifinal with Mardy Fish in excellent form. After quite a few years of playing sub-standard tennis, he looks like he's the real deal. I would say that the other players in his section of the draw at the Australian Open should watch out.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Finals Week 2 - Best Match of the Year So Far!
I'm not talking about the Serena Williams - Elena Dementieva final in Sydney, which actually turned out to be a bit of a dud, but the men's semifinal which preceded it. Marcos Baghdatis and Mardy Fish went on for nearly three hours and two tiebreak sets. In the end, it was decided on an error from Fish - but not a shotmaking error. In fact, he had hit a spectacular cross-court pass that probably would have forced Baghdatis to miss his shot, but Fish challenged the call on the baseline. In the end, the "in" call had been correct, and Fish lost the point.
This was at 3-all in the third set tiebreak, and Baghdatis won both of his points on serve, giving him three match points. Fish gamely defended the first two on his own deal, but lost the third. It was the 243rd point of the match, and it was a fitting end. Despite how well Fish fought, Baghdatis had been slightly better the entire day. Both players were on their games for nearly the entire match, and there was some spectacular shot-making. Baggy's backhand half-volley winner from the baseline springs to mind, as does Fish's sacrificial diving volley on break point. Great match, all around. Bother players should be encouraged going into the AO with that kind of performance.
However, I don't give Baghdatis too much of a shot against Gasquet, who had a much easier time against Julien Benneateau even though he wasn't playing very well. But Baghdatis has to be tired, and Gasquet should be relatively fresh. It could be a good final, though.
But there's a chance it will be as much of a letdown as the highly-touted women's final. Serena seemed hobbled, and Dementieva was solid, winning 6-3, 6-2. Serena still has not won a regular tour event since April 2008, and Dementieva should have some confidence going into next week's major, having beaten the world's top two players. If it were anyone but Serena, I would say this hurts her chances of defending her title in Melbourne, but I've learned that her performance outside the slams really has no impact on her performance in them.
In Auckland, the last two seeds fell, with John Isner beating Albert Montanes and Arnaud Clement beating Philipp Kohlschreiber. Isner and Clement have now each beaten three seeds and will meet in the final for the first time. Isner is more than a foot taller than Clement, but this will be tight. Clement hasn't won a title since 2006, and Isner hasn't won a title ever. This is only his second final, after he made a dream run to the Washington final in 2007 in one of his first pro tournaments. I'm picking the big man to win his first title, but Clement is such a smart player, anything could happen.
This was at 3-all in the third set tiebreak, and Baghdatis won both of his points on serve, giving him three match points. Fish gamely defended the first two on his own deal, but lost the third. It was the 243rd point of the match, and it was a fitting end. Despite how well Fish fought, Baghdatis had been slightly better the entire day. Both players were on their games for nearly the entire match, and there was some spectacular shot-making. Baggy's backhand half-volley winner from the baseline springs to mind, as does Fish's sacrificial diving volley on break point. Great match, all around. Bother players should be encouraged going into the AO with that kind of performance.
However, I don't give Baghdatis too much of a shot against Gasquet, who had a much easier time against Julien Benneateau even though he wasn't playing very well. But Baghdatis has to be tired, and Gasquet should be relatively fresh. It could be a good final, though.
But there's a chance it will be as much of a letdown as the highly-touted women's final. Serena seemed hobbled, and Dementieva was solid, winning 6-3, 6-2. Serena still has not won a regular tour event since April 2008, and Dementieva should have some confidence going into next week's major, having beaten the world's top two players. If it were anyone but Serena, I would say this hurts her chances of defending her title in Melbourne, but I've learned that her performance outside the slams really has no impact on her performance in them.
In Auckland, the last two seeds fell, with John Isner beating Albert Montanes and Arnaud Clement beating Philipp Kohlschreiber. Isner and Clement have now each beaten three seeds and will meet in the final for the first time. Isner is more than a foot taller than Clement, but this will be tight. Clement hasn't won a title since 2006, and Isner hasn't won a title ever. This is only his second final, after he made a dream run to the Washington final in 2007 in one of his first pro tournaments. I'm picking the big man to win his first title, but Clement is such a smart player, anything could happen.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Semifinals Week 2
There was one big upset yesterday, and one almost-upset. In Auckland, John Isner avenged his defeat at the Hopman Cup by Tommy Robredo, beating the Spaniard in three tight sets. Isner hit twenty aces, but even more surprisingly, broke Robredo three times! I'd consider this a very impressive win for the big American, and while I don't put him in contention for winning the Aussie Open (that field is big enough already) I do think he can build on his win over Andy Roddick last September by upsetting another big seed.
The near-upset came at Sydney, when Serena Williams was nearly defeated by Aravane Rezai. Down a set and 5-3, Rezai served for the match, but couldn't close the door. Afterward, she said she wasn't impressed by Serena, and that she could have won. If Serena had been the one to break her while she was serving, or if she had gotten the break on a net cord winner or something, I could see her saying this. As it stands, she gave it away when she had the match in hand, so it seemed pretty classless to denigrate her opponent after choking. Still, it was an impressive performance when I had considered the match to be a mere formality.
The other semifinal was supposed to be more competitive, but turned out to be boring. Dementieva plowed through Azarenka, setting up the best final that we could have asked for. Serena and Dementieva played one of the best matches on the women's tour last year, so they could rival the Clijsters-Henin final of last week. Serena's looking to break her streak of not winning a regular tour event, while Dementieva wants everyone to know that she's in the hunt at the Aussie Open, this year. It's a big match.
Also in Sydney, the last seed on the men's side fell, when Baghditis beat Lleyton Hewitt in three tight sets. It wasn't quite as epic as their clash at last year's Aussie Open, but it was an impressive performance from both. Hewitt looked like the Hewitt of old during the first set, but then Baggy played like the guy who made the 2006 final in the next two.
Hewitt was the second-last Australian in the draw, but the last one didn't hang around much longer. Thirty-year old Peter Luczak fell to Mardy Fish in the night match, in another tight contest. In the end, Fish made a few too many shots, Luczak made a few too many errors, and he went to the drop shot well a few too many times. Still, an impressive show from the Aussie who is experiencing his greatest ever run after most players are considering retirement.
As a result, Fish plays Baghdatis in a rematch of last week's Brisbane first round. That was a tough one, with Baggy winning 7-5, 7-5, and as John Isner has just demonstrated, a player can lose one week and win the next. That should be an exciting semifinal.
The other semi could be the match that Serena-Rezia should have been, as Richard Gasquet faces Julien Benneteau. They played at this tournament, two years, and Gasquet won easily. He should do so, again. If "Baby Fed" doesn't win this match, he's going to be very disappointed with his showing.
The other most important thing to note is that Juan Martin Del Potro pulled out of his match against JW Tsonga at the AAMI Kooyong exhibition tournament, citing a wrist injury. He's been troubled by tendinitis before, so maybe he's just being careful. Then again, this could affect his chances at next week's Open. So the final at Kooyong will be Verdasco, who breezed past Djokovic (pun intended, they were playing in ridiculous winds) and Tsonga. Both players have done well at the Australian Open, but both also have a lot to prove.
The near-upset came at Sydney, when Serena Williams was nearly defeated by Aravane Rezai. Down a set and 5-3, Rezai served for the match, but couldn't close the door. Afterward, she said she wasn't impressed by Serena, and that she could have won. If Serena had been the one to break her while she was serving, or if she had gotten the break on a net cord winner or something, I could see her saying this. As it stands, she gave it away when she had the match in hand, so it seemed pretty classless to denigrate her opponent after choking. Still, it was an impressive performance when I had considered the match to be a mere formality.
The other semifinal was supposed to be more competitive, but turned out to be boring. Dementieva plowed through Azarenka, setting up the best final that we could have asked for. Serena and Dementieva played one of the best matches on the women's tour last year, so they could rival the Clijsters-Henin final of last week. Serena's looking to break her streak of not winning a regular tour event, while Dementieva wants everyone to know that she's in the hunt at the Aussie Open, this year. It's a big match.
Also in Sydney, the last seed on the men's side fell, when Baghditis beat Lleyton Hewitt in three tight sets. It wasn't quite as epic as their clash at last year's Aussie Open, but it was an impressive performance from both. Hewitt looked like the Hewitt of old during the first set, but then Baggy played like the guy who made the 2006 final in the next two.
Hewitt was the second-last Australian in the draw, but the last one didn't hang around much longer. Thirty-year old Peter Luczak fell to Mardy Fish in the night match, in another tight contest. In the end, Fish made a few too many shots, Luczak made a few too many errors, and he went to the drop shot well a few too many times. Still, an impressive show from the Aussie who is experiencing his greatest ever run after most players are considering retirement.
As a result, Fish plays Baghdatis in a rematch of last week's Brisbane first round. That was a tough one, with Baggy winning 7-5, 7-5, and as John Isner has just demonstrated, a player can lose one week and win the next. That should be an exciting semifinal.
The other semi could be the match that Serena-Rezia should have been, as Richard Gasquet faces Julien Benneteau. They played at this tournament, two years, and Gasquet won easily. He should do so, again. If "Baby Fed" doesn't win this match, he's going to be very disappointed with his showing.
The other most important thing to note is that Juan Martin Del Potro pulled out of his match against JW Tsonga at the AAMI Kooyong exhibition tournament, citing a wrist injury. He's been troubled by tendinitis before, so maybe he's just being careful. Then again, this could affect his chances at next week's Open. So the final at Kooyong will be Verdasco, who breezed past Djokovic (pun intended, they were playing in ridiculous winds) and Tsonga. Both players have done well at the Australian Open, but both also have a lot to prove.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Week 2 Quarterfinals
It seems like most of the tour has shut down in anticipation of the Australian Open starting next week.
In Sydney, the men's draw has just fallen apart. Two seeds withdrew, and five of the remaining lost by the third round. The only seed remaining is Lleyton Hewitt, who unfortunately has to play one of the other contenders in the quarterfinals, Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis. You may remember that Hewitt and Baghdatis played a match at the Australian Open last year that went until 4:30 in the morning. It seems unlikely that this meeting will be quite as epic, but the winner will have a good chance of winning the tournament.
The other two players who have a realistic shot at the win are Mardy Fish, who would play the winner of Hewitt-Baggy in the semis, and Richard Gasquet, who is all alone in his half of the draw. If he doesn't make the final at least, this week will be a disappointment. The other three players left in his half are Starace, Benneateau, and Mayer, fine players all but Gasquet needs to be able to beat them without too much trouble if he wants to get back to the top tier of the game.
The women's side of the draw remains a bit more competitive, with three seeds making it to the semifinals. Serena Williams blew through her opponent Vera Dushevina 2 and 2, which is not a surprise. What is a surprise is that Elena Dementieva beat Dinara Safina by almost that same margin. Now Williams plays Rezai in a formality of a match, while Dementieva plays Azarenka for the chance to face Serena in the final. It seems like Serena's victory should be a foregone conclusion, but she hasn't won a regular tour title (discounting grand slams or end-of-year championships) since April of 2008. She sure looks poised to break that streak, though.
In Auckland, there's an interesting quarterfinal match between John Isner and Tommy Robredo, which is a rematch of their tough three-setter last week in the Hopman Cup. Robredo came out on top in that contest, but he's played a lot more tennis in the interim. It could be a good match.
Finally, I've just set up a twitter account, from which I'll be posting updates to this blog as well as live commentary on some matches, in the future. Check me out at http://twitter.com/matchpointace !
In Sydney, the men's draw has just fallen apart. Two seeds withdrew, and five of the remaining lost by the third round. The only seed remaining is Lleyton Hewitt, who unfortunately has to play one of the other contenders in the quarterfinals, Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis. You may remember that Hewitt and Baghdatis played a match at the Australian Open last year that went until 4:30 in the morning. It seems unlikely that this meeting will be quite as epic, but the winner will have a good chance of winning the tournament.
The other two players who have a realistic shot at the win are Mardy Fish, who would play the winner of Hewitt-Baggy in the semis, and Richard Gasquet, who is all alone in his half of the draw. If he doesn't make the final at least, this week will be a disappointment. The other three players left in his half are Starace, Benneateau, and Mayer, fine players all but Gasquet needs to be able to beat them without too much trouble if he wants to get back to the top tier of the game.
The women's side of the draw remains a bit more competitive, with three seeds making it to the semifinals. Serena Williams blew through her opponent Vera Dushevina 2 and 2, which is not a surprise. What is a surprise is that Elena Dementieva beat Dinara Safina by almost that same margin. Now Williams plays Rezai in a formality of a match, while Dementieva plays Azarenka for the chance to face Serena in the final. It seems like Serena's victory should be a foregone conclusion, but she hasn't won a regular tour title (discounting grand slams or end-of-year championships) since April of 2008. She sure looks poised to break that streak, though.
In Auckland, there's an interesting quarterfinal match between John Isner and Tommy Robredo, which is a rematch of their tough three-setter last week in the Hopman Cup. Robredo came out on top in that contest, but he's played a lot more tennis in the interim. It could be a good match.
Finally, I've just set up a twitter account, from which I'll be posting updates to this blog as well as live commentary on some matches, in the future. Check me out at http://twitter.com/matchpointace !
Sunday, January 4, 2009
2009 season almost underway!
If this is a preview of the 2009 season, we should be in for some fun. After beating Federer in three sets in Abu Dhabi yesterday, Andy Murray went on to beat Nadal in three in the final. I think the young Scot is trying to make a statement, that he's a serious contender this year. Should be fun.
I've started taking a look at the draws for the three tournaments taking place this inaugural week of the season, but I'll hold off on much serious commentary until tomorrow, when the qualifying rounds will have hopefully completed. As for the quallies...
In Chennai, the weakest of the three tournaments taking place next week, I'd like to see Michael Berrer and Rajeev Ram make it to the main draw. Flavia Cipolla probably will, too. And there are a lot of unknown (at least to me) Indian tennis players in this draw. I know that it's a burgeoning sport in that region, so it would be nice to see somebody new make a splash, and there's no better place to do it than a hometown tournament.
It's interesting that Doha has such a great main draw, but there isn't much going on in qualifiers. I expect it's because the top players are getting appearance bonuses for showing up, but the players outside the top 100 probably aren't. One interesting note is that doubles phenom Nenad Zimonjic is playing in the qualifiers. It'll be interesting to see how he does.
Most of the interesting play is going on in Brisbane, since players are there to start prepping for the Australian Open. Gilles Muller and Frank Dancevic are both high-quality players that could use a good start to their year. I see that John Isner lost Andrea Stoppini already, but I'm encouraged to see him out there getting in the matches. Ivo Karlovic couldn't get a handle on his playing style until he was much older than Isner, so maybe it will just take time. There are quite a few other Americans in the draw, and I see that Amer Delic has already ousted local favorite Chris Guccione. Not a good day for big servers.
In addition to the guys I've already mentioned, I think that young Kevin Anderson and veteran Xavier Malisse have good odds to make it into the main draw. And then we can get the season started in earnest. I can hardly wait.
I've started taking a look at the draws for the three tournaments taking place this inaugural week of the season, but I'll hold off on much serious commentary until tomorrow, when the qualifying rounds will have hopefully completed. As for the quallies...
In Chennai, the weakest of the three tournaments taking place next week, I'd like to see Michael Berrer and Rajeev Ram make it to the main draw. Flavia Cipolla probably will, too. And there are a lot of unknown (at least to me) Indian tennis players in this draw. I know that it's a burgeoning sport in that region, so it would be nice to see somebody new make a splash, and there's no better place to do it than a hometown tournament.
It's interesting that Doha has such a great main draw, but there isn't much going on in qualifiers. I expect it's because the top players are getting appearance bonuses for showing up, but the players outside the top 100 probably aren't. One interesting note is that doubles phenom Nenad Zimonjic is playing in the qualifiers. It'll be interesting to see how he does.
Most of the interesting play is going on in Brisbane, since players are there to start prepping for the Australian Open. Gilles Muller and Frank Dancevic are both high-quality players that could use a good start to their year. I see that John Isner lost Andrea Stoppini already, but I'm encouraged to see him out there getting in the matches. Ivo Karlovic couldn't get a handle on his playing style until he was much older than Isner, so maybe it will just take time. There are quite a few other Americans in the draw, and I see that Amer Delic has already ousted local favorite Chris Guccione. Not a good day for big servers.
In addition to the guys I've already mentioned, I think that young Kevin Anderson and veteran Xavier Malisse have good odds to make it into the main draw. And then we can get the season started in earnest. I can hardly wait.
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