All three of the men's ATP finals which took place today were good matches. All three went through three tight sets, and it was a question about who was going to take the title in all three matches until the very end.
The all-American showdown in Belgrade was probably the most exciting, because Isner was actually up a set and a break, serving at 5-3 in the second set, and even had a match point on serve. You've got to give that to someone who serves as big as Isner, almost every time. But Isner cracked under the pressure, lost the second set in a tiebreak, and then lost the third set by a single break. Querrey was just a bit more solid, in the final summation.
The same could be said for the other two winners. Frederico Gil looked to be down and out, when Albert Montanes ran away with the first set and looked ready to win the second. But he snuck out a victory in the tiebreak and then broke to start the third. Gil was unable to become the first Portuguese player to win an ATP tournament, as Montanes won the third set 7-5. Shame for the hometown boy. Cilic-Youzhny was not quite as topsy-turvy. The Russian seemed to be the stronger throughout most of the match, and he came out on top in the end. Really good day of tennis.
Looking ahead to Madrid, you've got nine of the top twelve players appearing. Del Potro and Davydenko are still out with injury, while Djokovic is suffering from an illness and/or allergies. Still, it's a pretty stacked field.
Roger Federer has had an abysmal season, after his win at the Australian Open. His inability to even take the title in Estoril of all places, losing to the 31st-ranked Montanes in the semifinals. With that in mind, he has to be both anxious for a win here in Madrid, but also something of a long shot, considering his current form.
And the draw he got is not doing him any favors. After a first-round bye, he'll face either Benjamin Becker or wildcard and former French Open champion Carlos Moya. After that, it's likely that he'll get Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka, who beat him on clay last year. And no matter who his quarterfinal opponent might be, it's going to be a bear of a match. He could face Youzhny, Gulbis, Montanes, or Andy Roddick. Gulbis-Montanes is one of the great opening round matches, but to have three players in this section of the draw coming in with winning streaks, and then the hottest young player on the tour, all in the same group, could spell trouble for Roger.
The second quarter of the draw has Andy Murray as the top seed, who hasn't had a much better season, post-Aussie Open. His section of the draw is mildly less brutal, but it's still no cakewalk. He may open against Cuevas or Chela, two clay-court stalwarts, and then potentially Sam Querrey, who just bagged his first title on clay. He could also get either Igor Andreev or Victor Hanescu in the third round. And then, in the quarterfinals, he may get either Cilic or Ferrer. The outside possibilities for his quarterfinal opponent include the third Swiss player in the draw, Marco Chiudinelli, or his first-round opponent Marcos Baghdatis. That's another cracker of a match tomorrow.
Because the second, fifth, and sixth-ranked players are out of the tournament, the fourth seed here this week is Robin Soderling, who has a quarter all to himself. So far, he hasn't shown the kind of form he would need to get back to the French Open final again. His nemesis so far this year, Fernando Verdasco, is also slated to be his quarterfinal opponent. But before he even gets there, he'll have to win against either Nicolas Almagro or Viktor Troicki, and then Juan Monaco or Tomaz Bellucci. That's almost as close to a group of clay-court ringers as you could get. And the wildcard in this section of the draw is David Nalbandian, who opens against the tall Czech Tomas Berdych. That is my pick for the best first-round match, by the way. And Verdasco has to face Ivo Karlovic in his first match. Almost anyone could find their way out of his quarter.
Because of Djokovic's absence, Nadal is back to his usual place as the second seed. And not only is he the favorite to win the tournament, he's also been gifted the best draw. He'll probably open against perennial underachiever Andreas Seppi, after which he may get John Isner or Phillip Kohlschreiber. No threats so far. His quartefinal opponent is likely to be Tsonga, who he beat without too much trouble early in the year. Gael Monfils is also in that section, but he hasn't played in so long, who knows how his form will be this week.
Except for Nadal, it's tough for me to see any of the other top four seeds making it to the semifinals. So this tournament is pretty wide open, in terms of getting to face Nadal. I don't know who's going to be able to beat him. It's always a possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point, unless you just like really long odds.
Showing posts with label estoril. Show all posts
Showing posts with label estoril. Show all posts
Monday, May 10, 2010
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Week 18 Finals
In terms of semifinal surprises, there was one minor one and one major one. The shocking result from yesterday's tennis was Federer's loss to Albert Montanes, the defending champion in Estoril, but also a player ranked 30 spots below Federer. This is probably Federer's most surprising loss, and while he credited Montanes with being a clay-court specialist after the match, Federer is the defending Roland Garros champion, so he should be able to figure out a match against a player ranked outside the top 30.
Montanes, who beat James Blake in the final last year in an epic match, will face Portuguese player Frederico Gil, who is the player from his nation to make the finals of an ATP tournament. Kudos to him, and if Montanes is at all hungover after his win against Federer, Gil could make a little more history.
There's more history being made in Belgrade, where John Isner upset Stan Wawrinka in the relatively minor upset of the day, to face American compatriot Sam Querrey in the finals. It's been 19 years since a clay-court final featured two American players, if you can believe that. Maybe the long, cold winter of American clay futility is beginning to end? That should be an interesting match, because I think Sam has the better game for the surface, but Isner is stronger mentally. And these two players know each other very well.
In Munich, there weren't any surprises. Top seed faces second seed, as Cilic takes on Mikhail Youzhny. Nothing particularly interesting to note, as these two players have both had good years - this is, if I'm not mistaken, Youzhny's fourth final since the beginning of the season, and he's yet to bag a title. Maybe he can finally make it across the finish line?
Tomorrow, we'll look at the draw in Madrid, the last big clay-court warm-up before the French Open. For his sake, I hope Federer can get some traction there.
Montanes, who beat James Blake in the final last year in an epic match, will face Portuguese player Frederico Gil, who is the player from his nation to make the finals of an ATP tournament. Kudos to him, and if Montanes is at all hungover after his win against Federer, Gil could make a little more history.
There's more history being made in Belgrade, where John Isner upset Stan Wawrinka in the relatively minor upset of the day, to face American compatriot Sam Querrey in the finals. It's been 19 years since a clay-court final featured two American players, if you can believe that. Maybe the long, cold winter of American clay futility is beginning to end? That should be an interesting match, because I think Sam has the better game for the surface, but Isner is stronger mentally. And these two players know each other very well.
In Munich, there weren't any surprises. Top seed faces second seed, as Cilic takes on Mikhail Youzhny. Nothing particularly interesting to note, as these two players have both had good years - this is, if I'm not mistaken, Youzhny's fourth final since the beginning of the season, and he's yet to bag a title. Maybe he can finally make it across the finish line?
Tomorrow, we'll look at the draw in Madrid, the last big clay-court warm-up before the French Open. For his sake, I hope Federer can get some traction there.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Week 18 Semifinals
Of the three ATP tournaments going on this week, two of them are going according to plan, more or less. Not much of particular excitement is taking place in either Estoril or Munich, but we'll address their semifinal lineups momentarily, anyway. First of all, I want to talk about one of the most exciting quarterfinal days we've had all year, at the Serbia Open in Belgrade.
The day opened with John Isner against Richard Gasquet. Despite Gasquet's lower ranking, there was little doubt that he was the favorite. He was the much more accomplished clay court player, and his game should have been suited to the surface. The first set was something of a rout, with Isner losing his serve twice and not even getting a break point against the Frenchman. The second set was tight, and got all the way to 5-all in the tiebreak. At this point, the story was that Isner should have folded under the pressure, but he held tough, took the set, and then won the third 6-3. It's a big win for the American, who has decided he doesn't want to believe the talk about U.S. players or big servers not being able to play on the clay.
The other American in action, Sam Querrey, had a match that I would have bet on him to lose. He took the first set and lost the second, then got up two breaks in the third set. At that point, he completely choked while serving for the match, and let the Russian Igor Andreev get back into the match. It looked similar to his loss in Rome, where he served for the match and was broken. However, here, Sam recovered and managed to serve it out in the second time of asking. Kudos to Querrey for getting out of his own way and winning.
The middle match was supposed to be the highlight, and it was probably the tightest match of the day. Stanislas Wawrinka, a very good clay-court player, was taking on a local favorite, so Viktor Troicki knew he had the crowd behind him. The match went 7-5, 6-7(3), 7-6(6). Wawrinka saved three match points in the third set. It was really a deflating loss for the Serbian fans, but it was nothing compared to what happened in the night match.
Novak Djokovic was slated to play Serbian teenager and wildcard Filip Krajinovic, and he sort of did - for a set. I don't think Djokovic was in any shape to play any kidn of tennis, but he showed up and did his best for a set, because he's the owner of the tournament. This is such a weird situation, but kudos to Djokovic for giving the fans something to see, even if it wasn't what they were hoping for. And it's a lucky break for Krajinovic, who had never won an ATP match before this week and whose previous loss came to a player ranked outside the top 450 in the world. Unless Sam Querrey loses his mind, then Krajinovic is going to get smoked in the semis. The match between Isner and Wawrinka is much more exciting. That one could go either way.
In any case, looking over to Estoril, things have gotten exceptionally boring. I mentioned at the beginning of the week that the only two players who could challenge Federer are Monfils and Ljubicic, who both withdrew before play began. That means that the second-highest ranked player in this tournament is Albert Montanes, ranked 30 places below Federer. That will be Fed's opponent tomorrow, but really, there isn't anyone left who should trouble Roger. A win is a win, but it's almost like he's winning a minor-league event at this point. I don't know how much momentum he can expect to get from notching wins over these guys, who - all respect to their capabilities - are relative scrubs.
There's some potential drama in Munich, at least, as Marcos Baghdatis, who had never been much of a clay court player before, won his match against the top German player, Philipp Kohlschreiber. But the German fans in the audience did get to see one of their own make it through, as Philipp Petzschner upset Tomas Berdych. These players will face the two men are now the favorites to meet in the final, Marin Cilic and Mikhail Youzhny. That could be an exciting match-up. We'll see how things shake out. Cilic has still been a bit shaky, but seems to be more confident than he has been in quite a few weeks.
On the women's tour, Serena Williams was doing her best Roger Federer impersonation in Rome. She lost to Jelena Jankovic, after being up a break in the third set, having a match point on serve, and then being up a mini-break in the third set tiebreak. It's an impressive fightback from Jankovic, who has now beaten both William Sisters back to back, but really a disappointing performance from Serena. Still, does she really need to win Rome again? We'll see how she bounces back in the coming weeks. Jankovic could have faced a resurgent Ana Ivanovic in the final, but her run was upset by another player having a dream week, 26th ranked Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez. Not quite the blockbuster final that the organizers were hoping for, but it's good to see Jankovic playing well again.
The day opened with John Isner against Richard Gasquet. Despite Gasquet's lower ranking, there was little doubt that he was the favorite. He was the much more accomplished clay court player, and his game should have been suited to the surface. The first set was something of a rout, with Isner losing his serve twice and not even getting a break point against the Frenchman. The second set was tight, and got all the way to 5-all in the tiebreak. At this point, the story was that Isner should have folded under the pressure, but he held tough, took the set, and then won the third 6-3. It's a big win for the American, who has decided he doesn't want to believe the talk about U.S. players or big servers not being able to play on the clay.
The other American in action, Sam Querrey, had a match that I would have bet on him to lose. He took the first set and lost the second, then got up two breaks in the third set. At that point, he completely choked while serving for the match, and let the Russian Igor Andreev get back into the match. It looked similar to his loss in Rome, where he served for the match and was broken. However, here, Sam recovered and managed to serve it out in the second time of asking. Kudos to Querrey for getting out of his own way and winning.
The middle match was supposed to be the highlight, and it was probably the tightest match of the day. Stanislas Wawrinka, a very good clay-court player, was taking on a local favorite, so Viktor Troicki knew he had the crowd behind him. The match went 7-5, 6-7(3), 7-6(6). Wawrinka saved three match points in the third set. It was really a deflating loss for the Serbian fans, but it was nothing compared to what happened in the night match.
Novak Djokovic was slated to play Serbian teenager and wildcard Filip Krajinovic, and he sort of did - for a set. I don't think Djokovic was in any shape to play any kidn of tennis, but he showed up and did his best for a set, because he's the owner of the tournament. This is such a weird situation, but kudos to Djokovic for giving the fans something to see, even if it wasn't what they were hoping for. And it's a lucky break for Krajinovic, who had never won an ATP match before this week and whose previous loss came to a player ranked outside the top 450 in the world. Unless Sam Querrey loses his mind, then Krajinovic is going to get smoked in the semis. The match between Isner and Wawrinka is much more exciting. That one could go either way.
In any case, looking over to Estoril, things have gotten exceptionally boring. I mentioned at the beginning of the week that the only two players who could challenge Federer are Monfils and Ljubicic, who both withdrew before play began. That means that the second-highest ranked player in this tournament is Albert Montanes, ranked 30 places below Federer. That will be Fed's opponent tomorrow, but really, there isn't anyone left who should trouble Roger. A win is a win, but it's almost like he's winning a minor-league event at this point. I don't know how much momentum he can expect to get from notching wins over these guys, who - all respect to their capabilities - are relative scrubs.
There's some potential drama in Munich, at least, as Marcos Baghdatis, who had never been much of a clay court player before, won his match against the top German player, Philipp Kohlschreiber. But the German fans in the audience did get to see one of their own make it through, as Philipp Petzschner upset Tomas Berdych. These players will face the two men are now the favorites to meet in the final, Marin Cilic and Mikhail Youzhny. That could be an exciting match-up. We'll see how things shake out. Cilic has still been a bit shaky, but seems to be more confident than he has been in quite a few weeks.
On the women's tour, Serena Williams was doing her best Roger Federer impersonation in Rome. She lost to Jelena Jankovic, after being up a break in the third set, having a match point on serve, and then being up a mini-break in the third set tiebreak. It's an impressive fightback from Jankovic, who has now beaten both William Sisters back to back, but really a disappointing performance from Serena. Still, does she really need to win Rome again? We'll see how she bounces back in the coming weeks. Jankovic could have faced a resurgent Ana Ivanovic in the final, but her run was upset by another player having a dream week, 26th ranked Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez. Not quite the blockbuster final that the organizers were hoping for, but it's good to see Jankovic playing well again.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Mid-Week 18
Looking ahead to Wednesday's action, there are some surprisingly tantalizing match-ups, considering that it's the second round of an off week on the ATP tour. But not everywhere.
For example Roger Federer, who has not had the best run since winning the Australian Open, should have a chance to find his form this week, starting tomorrow. He'll face off against Bjorn Phau, ranked 138th in the world. Why Phau is playing in Portugal rather than his home tournament in Munich is beyond me. He certainly couldn't have gotten a tougher second round there. Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic are also in action in tomorrow, and if both are healthy, should not be troubled. Honestly, there's not a lot going on in Estoril. Things may get a bit more exciting in the latter stages of the tournament, but the field just doesn't appear to be that deep.
In Belgrade, on the other hand, there are some really appetizing matches to be played. Andreas Seppi plays Richard Gasquet, who quite nearly double-bageled Olivier Rochus in the first round. John Isner faces off against Josselin Ouanna, a French player who I really like, and who is hoping to find his form before the French Open in a few weeks. The other big server in the field, Ivo Karlovic, plays Igor Andreev. Both of those matches should be interesting - the clay should blunt the effectiveness of the tall men's serves, but both Ouanna and Andreev like to win off big groundstrokes. I'd actually enjoy watching both of those matches. Sam Querrey, another big server, faces off against Evgeny Korolev, and that one could be fun to watch, too. If you happen to be up and available from 6 AM Eastern Time tomorrow, try to catch some on streaming, if you can.
Finally, in Munich, we have a match-up sort of like Roger Federer's, above. Marin Cilic, who had a great run at the Australian open and then won his following tournament, but since then has had less than stellar results. He's hoping to get some traction as well, and a match-up against Michael Berrer should help. Clay is not the German's best surface, and even though it isn't Cilic's either, he should be able to handle himself. Mikhail Youzhny is also in action, against another overmatched German, Andreas Beck. Germany's current number one player, Philipp Kohlschreiber, opens against Daniel Brands, which means that a German is guaranteed to get a win tomorrow! With no Tommy Haas around, that's a good thing.
But the most excitement taking place tomorrow is on the women's tour, in Rome. Serena Williams returned triumphantly in her first match since the Aussie Open. And in what must be helpful in her quest to get some good matches under her belt before the next grand slam, her section of the draw is opening up nicely. Zvonareva lost, Stosur withdrew, and Kuznetsova lost, leaving her the only seed remaining in her quarter. She should make it straight to the semifinals.
Her sister, on the other hand, is facing much sterner competition. Venus plays Shahar Peer tomorrow, followed by the winner of Jankovic and Wickmayer. And then the winner between those four should get to face Serena in the semis. On the other side of the draw, Ana Ivanovic is desperately trying to stage a comeback, but she'll be very strongly tested in her match against Elena Dementieva. I think that Ivanovic got through Azarenka more easily than she should have, so she'll really have to get some of the old magic to get a win against Elena. But she has played that well before - just not recently.
Caroline Wozniacki, in the bottom quarter of the draw, should have a path to the semis that's almost as easy as Serena's. Pennetta and Schiavone unfortunately put up very little resistance in their home tournament. Maybe the pressure of the situation got to them, but they won a combined total of seven games. The only other seed left in Caroline's quarter of the draw is Aggie Radwanska. That would be a good quartefinal, but I give the Dane the edge.
The last few weeks before a grand slam are always interesting. Players want to have good momentum going into a major tournament, but they won't to be exhausted, either. Federer needs a tournament win here, and it wouldn't hurt for Serena to bag the title, either. But these are not the titles that they really want to win. So they play to win, but they aren't playing with the same focus or intensity we'll see in a couple of weeks from them.
For example Roger Federer, who has not had the best run since winning the Australian Open, should have a chance to find his form this week, starting tomorrow. He'll face off against Bjorn Phau, ranked 138th in the world. Why Phau is playing in Portugal rather than his home tournament in Munich is beyond me. He certainly couldn't have gotten a tougher second round there. Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic are also in action in tomorrow, and if both are healthy, should not be troubled. Honestly, there's not a lot going on in Estoril. Things may get a bit more exciting in the latter stages of the tournament, but the field just doesn't appear to be that deep.
In Belgrade, on the other hand, there are some really appetizing matches to be played. Andreas Seppi plays Richard Gasquet, who quite nearly double-bageled Olivier Rochus in the first round. John Isner faces off against Josselin Ouanna, a French player who I really like, and who is hoping to find his form before the French Open in a few weeks. The other big server in the field, Ivo Karlovic, plays Igor Andreev. Both of those matches should be interesting - the clay should blunt the effectiveness of the tall men's serves, but both Ouanna and Andreev like to win off big groundstrokes. I'd actually enjoy watching both of those matches. Sam Querrey, another big server, faces off against Evgeny Korolev, and that one could be fun to watch, too. If you happen to be up and available from 6 AM Eastern Time tomorrow, try to catch some on streaming, if you can.
Finally, in Munich, we have a match-up sort of like Roger Federer's, above. Marin Cilic, who had a great run at the Australian open and then won his following tournament, but since then has had less than stellar results. He's hoping to get some traction as well, and a match-up against Michael Berrer should help. Clay is not the German's best surface, and even though it isn't Cilic's either, he should be able to handle himself. Mikhail Youzhny is also in action, against another overmatched German, Andreas Beck. Germany's current number one player, Philipp Kohlschreiber, opens against Daniel Brands, which means that a German is guaranteed to get a win tomorrow! With no Tommy Haas around, that's a good thing.
But the most excitement taking place tomorrow is on the women's tour, in Rome. Serena Williams returned triumphantly in her first match since the Aussie Open. And in what must be helpful in her quest to get some good matches under her belt before the next grand slam, her section of the draw is opening up nicely. Zvonareva lost, Stosur withdrew, and Kuznetsova lost, leaving her the only seed remaining in her quarter. She should make it straight to the semifinals.
Her sister, on the other hand, is facing much sterner competition. Venus plays Shahar Peer tomorrow, followed by the winner of Jankovic and Wickmayer. And then the winner between those four should get to face Serena in the semis. On the other side of the draw, Ana Ivanovic is desperately trying to stage a comeback, but she'll be very strongly tested in her match against Elena Dementieva. I think that Ivanovic got through Azarenka more easily than she should have, so she'll really have to get some of the old magic to get a win against Elena. But she has played that well before - just not recently.
Caroline Wozniacki, in the bottom quarter of the draw, should have a path to the semis that's almost as easy as Serena's. Pennetta and Schiavone unfortunately put up very little resistance in their home tournament. Maybe the pressure of the situation got to them, but they won a combined total of seven games. The only other seed left in Caroline's quarter of the draw is Aggie Radwanska. That would be a good quartefinal, but I give the Dane the edge.
The last few weeks before a grand slam are always interesting. Players want to have good momentum going into a major tournament, but they won't to be exhausted, either. Federer needs a tournament win here, and it wouldn't hurt for Serena to bag the title, either. But these are not the titles that they really want to win. So they play to win, but they aren't playing with the same focus or intensity we'll see in a couple of weeks from them.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Rome Wrap-up and Week 18 Preview
The result of the Rome final went as predicted, so I'm afraid it doesn't merit a lot of attention. Nadal was running even with Ferrer before the first rain delay, and after that he broke and won the first set. The second, despite another rain delay, wasn't much of a contest. And Nadal is now tied for the most Masters shields of any player since their creation in 1990. He is now ahead of Roger Federer in this department, if you can believe that. He'll be sitting out this week, but back for Madrid. He could take the all-time lead in a few weeks with a win there. We'll see what happens.
In the meantime, there are three lower-tier clay-court tournaments this week. I'll take a quick look at each one in turn. Estoril in Portugal is Roger Federer's tournament, and is his to lose. The Serbia Open, in its second year, should be won by Novak Djokovic because he's the highest seed by far, but also because he owns the damn thing. In Munich, the BMW Open is the most up for grabs of any of this week's tournaments. No obvious favorite, there.
Looking with a little bit more depth, I really don't see who can trouble Roger Federer in his draw. The only players who have the ability to hurt him are the second and third seeds, Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic. But they're both in the bottom half of the draw, so Federer won't face them until the final, at the earliest. They are also both coming off injury, so they might not be at 100%. If Federer doesn't win this tournament, then we'll know that he is really struggling.
In Belgrade, Djokovic is similarly favored, but he has more legitimate competition. All of the Americans who are in action at the top level of the game are in Belgrade, so he may have to get through Sam Querrey or John Isner, in a rematch of the first round of Davis Cup. San Wawrinka, Igor Andreev, and Richard Gasquet are also in the tournament. It's also worth noting that Djokovic's little brother Marko got a wildcard into the tournament and faces off against Italian qualifier Alessio Di Maurio in the first round. Could be interesting to see what he's capable of. There are a few other players in the draw that I like, such as Josselin Ouanna, Michael Russel, Horacio Zeballos, Evgeny Korolev, and Janko "Tipsy" Tipsarevic, but it's a bit early to see if any of them will make any noise.
As I said, the most open tournament is the one in Munich. The top seed, Marin Cilic, is 1-2 so far this year on clay, which is not exactly the kind of record that you hope to be taking into a tournament like this. He'll also be up against Mikhail Youzhny (last year's finalist) and defending champion Tomas Berdych, as well as former champ Philipp Kohlschreiber. Not to mention Marcos Baghdatis and Nicolas Almagro, and unseeded Mario Ancic and Nicolas Kiefer, who have both been in the top ten. This tournament is pretty much wide open, and could produce some of the best matches of the week.
I know I've been neglecting the women's tour recently, so I'm going to do a bit of catch-up today. First of all, huge congratulations to the US Fed Cup team for beating the Russians to get back to the final, even without the Williams sisters. Second, kudos to Justine Henin for winning the first title of her comeback, just in time to prep for the French Open, where she will now be seeded, if I am not mistaken. Could she win it? I don't really know who the other contenders might be, honestly.
The women's tournament in Rome takes place this week, and this is the first time that so many of the top players have all been in action since the Australian Open. Nine of the top ten players are here, with only Sam Stosur withdrawing after losing her final to Justine Henin. It's Serena's first tournament since her win at the Australian Open. We'll see how she's doing - Dinara Safina is back as well. Really, this is the chance to see how everyone is doing in the lead-up to the French. Except for Kim Clijsters, who is having some trouble with injury. It would be a shame if she misses the tournament this year.
Lots of action coming up this week, since in addition to everything I've mentioned already, there are some interesting challenger matches that I'm keeping my eyes on. We'll see how the week develops.
In the meantime, there are three lower-tier clay-court tournaments this week. I'll take a quick look at each one in turn. Estoril in Portugal is Roger Federer's tournament, and is his to lose. The Serbia Open, in its second year, should be won by Novak Djokovic because he's the highest seed by far, but also because he owns the damn thing. In Munich, the BMW Open is the most up for grabs of any of this week's tournaments. No obvious favorite, there.
Looking with a little bit more depth, I really don't see who can trouble Roger Federer in his draw. The only players who have the ability to hurt him are the second and third seeds, Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic. But they're both in the bottom half of the draw, so Federer won't face them until the final, at the earliest. They are also both coming off injury, so they might not be at 100%. If Federer doesn't win this tournament, then we'll know that he is really struggling.
In Belgrade, Djokovic is similarly favored, but he has more legitimate competition. All of the Americans who are in action at the top level of the game are in Belgrade, so he may have to get through Sam Querrey or John Isner, in a rematch of the first round of Davis Cup. San Wawrinka, Igor Andreev, and Richard Gasquet are also in the tournament. It's also worth noting that Djokovic's little brother Marko got a wildcard into the tournament and faces off against Italian qualifier Alessio Di Maurio in the first round. Could be interesting to see what he's capable of. There are a few other players in the draw that I like, such as Josselin Ouanna, Michael Russel, Horacio Zeballos, Evgeny Korolev, and Janko "Tipsy" Tipsarevic, but it's a bit early to see if any of them will make any noise.
As I said, the most open tournament is the one in Munich. The top seed, Marin Cilic, is 1-2 so far this year on clay, which is not exactly the kind of record that you hope to be taking into a tournament like this. He'll also be up against Mikhail Youzhny (last year's finalist) and defending champion Tomas Berdych, as well as former champ Philipp Kohlschreiber. Not to mention Marcos Baghdatis and Nicolas Almagro, and unseeded Mario Ancic and Nicolas Kiefer, who have both been in the top ten. This tournament is pretty much wide open, and could produce some of the best matches of the week.
I know I've been neglecting the women's tour recently, so I'm going to do a bit of catch-up today. First of all, huge congratulations to the US Fed Cup team for beating the Russians to get back to the final, even without the Williams sisters. Second, kudos to Justine Henin for winning the first title of her comeback, just in time to prep for the French Open, where she will now be seeded, if I am not mistaken. Could she win it? I don't really know who the other contenders might be, honestly.
The women's tournament in Rome takes place this week, and this is the first time that so many of the top players have all been in action since the Australian Open. Nine of the top ten players are here, with only Sam Stosur withdrawing after losing her final to Justine Henin. It's Serena's first tournament since her win at the Australian Open. We'll see how she's doing - Dinara Safina is back as well. Really, this is the chance to see how everyone is doing in the lead-up to the French. Except for Kim Clijsters, who is having some trouble with injury. It would be a shame if she misses the tournament this year.
Lots of action coming up this week, since in addition to everything I've mentioned already, there are some interesting challenger matches that I'm keeping my eyes on. We'll see how the week develops.
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