Week 44 Semifinals

We're through to the final four in both of the ATP tournaments taking place this week, and there are some very appetizing match-ups. Quarterfinals day was maybe lacking some of the excitement that it looked like it might have had, but there was still some amazing tennis on display.

Out of the eight matches taking place today, only two were not won in straight sets. Argentine Juan Monaco faltered against Lucky Loser Marcel Granollers, who continues his campaign as one of the two remaining Spaniards in Valencia. That's a big win for Granollers, who was 17-20 on the year coming into this tournament. Unfortunately, I don't think he can pull of that magic again in the semis, as he faces Gilles Simon, who ousted Nikolay Davydenko in three - though it should have only taken two. Davydenko played brilliantly for intervals, but then he would completely lose his way. In the end, Simon was just too steady.

The other semifinal may not go terribly well for the other remaining Spaniard, David Ferrer, who is rewarded for his straight sets defeat of Andreas Seppi with the dominant player of the tournament thus far, Robin Soderling, who ousted Gael Monfils as if it were no small feat. It was strong play from Soderling, but honestly, Monfils didn't really show up for this match, which is a shame. Having just won a tournament last week and summarily dismissed Stanislas Wawrinka in the previous round, I was hopeful that Monfils had reached a new level in his career, but the quality of his play dropped precipitously in the quarterfinals. I expect Ferrer will be a sterner test for the Swede, but Soderling leads their head-head 8-3, including winning 3 out of 4 matches played this year.

Ferrer is in a tricky situation, which is that he needs to accumulate points to cement his place in the year-end-championships, but he doesn't want to exhaust himself before next week's tournament in Paris, where there are even more points on offer. A loss here wouldn't be the end of the world. Another player who is in the exact same boat is Andy Roddick, who wishes he was merely 3-8 against his semifinal opponent. But no, the American faces off against his greatest nemesis and hometown hero Roger Federer, against whom Roddick is a dismal 2-19. This is their first meeting since the epic Wimbledon final in July of 2009, and also the site of their very first meeting way back in 2001. Federer won that one in a third set tiebreak, and it may be a similar result tomorrow. A win for Roddick would be huge, but a loss isn't going to hurt his spirit too much - he came into this week without any serious expectations, considering his layoff, and he has played some great tennis. If he gets an extra day to get to France for the Paris Masters and get himself ready for that tournament, that's just fine. And really, it's tough to bet on the guy with a 2-19 record.

The final semi features a rematch of one of the most significant early round matches at the U.S. Open - Serb Novak Djokovic played his junior countryman Viktor Troicki and looked out of it in the very first round, down a break in a decisive set, and with a point to go down a double break. Djokovic managed to claw his way back to win the match and ultimately go on to beat Federer in the semis and make the final. Since then, Troicki won the first tournament of his career. Djokovic, of course, is trying to defend the title he won here last year. I expect that Novak will win this one, but it could be tricky, if Troicki brings his best stuff to the court.

Despite all the other matches going on tomorrow, the biggest question of the day will be whether Roddick can maybe pull of that magical upset and get another notch on his belt against Federer. It's not a decisive match for either player in terms of career trajectories, but a win would be a huge boost for Andy. For Federer, it probably won't affect him too much either way, and Roddick won't be surprised if he comes up second best. But a win could Roddick all kinds of momentum heading into the year's final weeks. After a very up-and-down year, it would be great to end on a high note.

US Open Wrap-Up

This is a bit belated, but now that the U.S. Open is over, we can look back on things with some more perspective. Obviously, the tournament was an unqualified success for Rafael Nadal, who completed his career grand slam, won his third consecutive major tournament, and put himself in the conversation among the greatest players of all time. Really, a stunning fortnight for him - and while he may not have had to face his toughest opponents on the way, but neither did Federer when he won his French Open. You can't blame Nadal for not being able to beat Federer this year - he beat everyone who he was supposed to, and that's all he needed to do.

Novak Djokovic had an amazing week as well, after nearly buckling in the first round to compatriot Viktor Troicki, he was fading in the heat and looked down for the count. But the sun started setting, he got a second wind, and rode it all the way through to the final. He thoroughly outplayed Federer in the semifinal match, but he still just barely won it. It's the best he's played since he lost to Nadal during the clay-court season in 2009, in the greatest three-set match ever played. But even with the aid of the weather, it wasn't enough to challenge Nadal in the final. But then again, we can only ask so much of one player.

Which may be part of the explanation for Federer's fall in the semis. Even though he almost won the match, he was the second-best player for the whole encounter. He was hitting way too many errors and not serving well enough to have expected any other result. But really, how could anyone have expected him to make another U.S. Open final? I guess we might have, since that's one record he didn't own - Lendl still (and probably always will) have the record for consecutive U.S. Open finals. Federer was probably spoiled by having relatively easy competition straight through to his semifinal - his only potentially tricky opponent, Soderling, he was able to take on in absolutely ideal conditions. That's not to say that he didn't play brilliantly in that match, but he may have gotten to Djokovic and started thinking about the final before he had dispatched the Serb. And though I wouldn't have expected it, the Djoker rose to the occasion and played spoiler. Still, a fine summer for Federer, despite not making the final here.

Everybody else, on the other hand, has some work to do in the last part of the season to make up for their disappointing Summers' ends. Well, Youzhny probably can take a break - and maybe Wawrinka, who played amazing tennis but wore himself out. But Andy Murray was passive and petulant in his loss to the other Swiss player, and he's gone another year without his maiden grand slam title. His game is brilliant, his talent is unquestionable - but his tactics are sometimes less than ideal, and his attitude is often the thing that brings him down.

Andy Roddick's showing was even worse - I'm honestly getting tired of hearing him say that his plan, going into the match, was to let his opponent miss. "There's no way he can keep this up," is his mantra after so many grand slam losses. I'm thinking back to Kohlschreiber at the Australian Open, Gasquet at Wimbledon, Lu at Wimbledon this year, or the other time that Tipsarevic beat Roddick, also at Wimbledon. But it's terrible to come out after the match and say that he successfully executed his strategy in that match, because if that's his strategy, then any player can play an hour and a half of brilliant tennis and beat him. Sometimes, he needs to be able to win matches, not just allow other players to lose them. Tipsarevic himself said as much, talking about how nobody fears Roddick from the baseline anymore. Andy's out of the top ten once again, though he's still in the top eight in the year-to-date race, so he has a chance of making the year-end championships in London, with a couple good showings at the last two Masters events. But he needs to tweak his gameplan for the big matches, or else he's going to keep getting blown off the court.

Fortunately for Andy, the other Americans did well enough at the tournament to draw attention away from his poor performance on court and worse, his fairly childish reaction to a line judge. Of course, she was stupid too, (we should all be able to tell our right from our left) but her foot fault call was correct. Anyway, Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey both had good runs - one young player and one vet, and another pair had promising showings despite trouble with an injury or an unlucky draw. I'm looking at you, Isner and Blake. Despite not having any Americans in the top ten, we still have players who can win tournaments and be in the conversation - and we'll have one back in the top ten soon enough. There were a handful of performances from really young players that were just amazing - teen Ryan Harrison played great tennis, but choked on the verge of a famous victory. And the 17-year old Jack Sock may have lost in the first round of the main draw, but he won the junior title to become the first U.S. Champ in the boys' event since Andy Roddick. This is not all bad news.

There's still a lot to play for this year - two more Masters events and a handful of 250s and 500s. The Asian swing and the European indoor swing, two oft-overlooked but still great parts of the season. In the coming years, watch for the Asian swing to become more important, not less. I'd keep an eye on the young Japanese player, Kei Nishikori, this year - he played great at the U.S. Open, upsetting Marin Cilic, and he should be back in the top hundred by the time this year is over.

US Open - Super Saturday

In just the three matches we had today, the full gamut of tennis competitiveness was on display. We had one match which was a complete fiasco, in which one of the players didn't even show up mentally and was never even on the same court as the eventual winner. We had one match where it was a tightly-contested affair, with both players achieving a good level of tennis, but one was simply the better player today, and despite some moments of brief tension, the outcome was never really in doubt. And we had one match that was utterly topsy-turvy, but when it all came together near the end, both players reached an astonishing level of play, and it wasn't clear until the last point was played just who was going to come away with the victory. It was without question a classic match, one of the best of this year's Open, if not the entire year.

Of course, the first refers to the women's final, where Vera Zvonareva managed to be as much of a headcase as she'd been in the past. Credit to her for getting this far, but she really couldn't hold herself together in the pressure of the final, unfortunately. Kim Clijsters played good tennis, with a 17-15 winner to unforced error ratio, but her opponent was at a mere 6-24. It's a shame for Vera, who played unbelievably well to get her, to stumble at this stage once again. There must be something wrong with the Russian tennis development system to produce players with so much skill who have so many problems in situations like these. Dinara Safina, anyone?

The second was the contest between Mikhail Youzhny and Rafael Nadal. The Russian didn't play bad tennis by any means. He played a strong match, considering how much he had to play recently, compared to how fresh Nadal must have been. But Youzhny just didn't have the game to handle Nadal today. He managed one short-lived, last-minute surge of great play to break Nadal in the third set, but was quickly broken back and lost the match. No shame in that, he was just beaten by the better player - short of breaking Rafa's knee with his racket, I don't know what Youzhny could have done out there today.

The third match was a great one. I don't think it was a match for the ages - any match where one of the players loses sets 6-1 and 6-2 could have been a lot closer and more even throughout, but the fifth set was one of the best moments of the Open this year. Federer made a big push at just the moment that you thought he would, having essentially given away the fourth set - while Novak was serving to stay in the match. He got up 15-40, giving himself a pair of match points. Despite having some rough patches of play, it looked like Federer was going to close it out and face Nadal in the final. Everything was going according to the script.

But apparently, Djokovic hadn't read it. Down two match points, he blasted three straight winners - and not just winners, but stone-cold winners, blasted at ridiculous velocity passed a stunned Federer. To make those shots under any circumstances would have been impressive, but to make them down match point in the semifinal of a grand slam against Roger Federer - that's just sick. And Djokovic was apparently so pumped up by it that he was able to break Federer in the next game and serve out the match. Really stunning display by Novak, who hasn't had a performance even close to this one since winning the Aussie Open back in 2008.

That said, I would be shocked if Djokovic can beat Nadal in tomorrow's final. After the monumental effort he had to put forth in the semis, he still gets to play the world's top player with essentially no rest. Nadal still hasn't lost a set and has had a pretty clear path to the final. He'll be fresh and eager to put his stamp on history, and a physically and mentally exhausted Djokovic is exactly who he'll hope to see on the other side of the net. Nadal won't go on walkabout for a set or two at a time the way Federer did. He won't spray his forehand all over the place deep in the fifth set - or any set, for that matter.

It would be one of the greatest performances in tennis history if Djokovic could come back from this and beat Federer tomorrow. I don't see it happening.

US Open Day 12

The women's semifinals took place today, and they were pretty surprising. Three of the four players were shaky and off their game today - and the one who wasn't was Vera Zvonareva. Top seed Caroline Wozniacki played her first shaky match of the tournament, and the Russian was there to capitalize. Credit to Vera, who played a very strong, solid match from a player who hasn't been known for her consistency in the past, but Wozniacki was strangely not present today. For somebody who has played so solid from day one against some very tough opponents in an array of conditions, I'm not sure what it was that got to her today. But Zvonareva has emerged as one of the best stories of the tournament, since she's made consecutive grand slam finals and has emerged as the Russian. No small feat for a player who was bawling on the court last year, tearing off her own leg strappings after missing six match points against Flavia Pennetta.

And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.

Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.

As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.

The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.

Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!

Rogers Cup Semifinals

Well, you can't really ask for a better semifinal line-up than this one. While last year's quarterfinals were star-studded, with the world's top eight players making it to that stage, last year there were three out of four upsets - only Andy Murray made it to the semifinals out of the top four, and he went on to win the tournament. This year, the semifinal round is stacked with the big four, the four players who have dominated tennis for the last two years, and it should be fun.

Murray and Djokovic both had relatively easy times with their quarterfinal matches - the Scot's performance was probably the more impressive, because he was facing a tougher opponent in David Nalbandian, but he was effective from the very first ball, and Nalbandian was never really in the match. Djokovic had a relatively low-tier foe in Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, but he was up to the challenge.

On the other hand, Nadal strugged early on against an inspired Phillipp Kohlschreiber, but was able to gut out a win in three. Federer started better against Tomas Berdych, then seemed to slow down and very nearly lost the match. Berdych was up 5-2 in the third set, but his one-break lead evaporated and Federer pulled out the win in the tiebreak. This would have been a devastating loss for Fed, so you know he'll be inspired by this win.

Nadal meets Murray for the third time this year, and they split their previous two meetings. Murray won in Australia but Nadal won at Wimbledon. This match will hinge entirely on how Murray plays - if he's aggressive enough, he can beat Nadal, but if he sits back and lets Nadal dictate, then he's going to be out. Nadal will beat him every time if he tries to counterpunch. It should be an interesting match, though - Nadal is on an unbelievable tear this season, with only a single loss since April, at Queen's Club. On the other hand, Murray hasn't won a tournament yet this year. Two players with very divergent years, thus far. There's a lot on the line for both of them.

The other match is no less interesting, as Federer and Djokovic have meet more than a dozen times. Federer has the lead in the head to head, but Djokovic won their most recent match, which took place at the end of 2009. Neither player is having a great season recently, so whoever comes out on top is going to take a lot of confidence from their win. I think Federer has better form coming in, and he has to be energized by that win over Berdych. But Djokovic is the number two player in the world, stunningly, and he's - by the numbers - been the better player over the past year.

I still think a Federer-Nadal final is fairly likely, but none of the possible permutations that we could see come Sunday would be a complete shock, with four players of this caliber remaining in the tournament. Like I said before, it would be tough to ask for a more exciting line-up at this point.

Newport and Davis Cup Wrap-up, Week 28 Preview

At the Campbell's Hall of Fame tennis championships, Mardy Fish won a tightly contested match against Olivier Rochus to take the title. This was a very impressive and steady performance from Fish, who has a pretty abysmal record in finals. Fortunately for him, Olivier Rochus's is not much better. The American recovered from being frustrated at some line calls at the end of the first set to win the second two cleanly enough - he got one break in each of the second two sets. In the final game of the match, Fish saved two break points - the first ones that Rochus had since the very first set.

It's a big win for Fish, who lost the Queens final about a month ago, and will hopefully bode well for the rest of his year, and the next few years of his career. It's unfortunate to think about, but as Fish is now 29 years old and has had a lot of injury problems, so he probably can count the number of good tennis years he has left on one hand. If he can keep up this form, though, I can see him making it back to the top 30, top 20, with pretty high confidence.

As for the Davis Cup, the action today was pretty exciting. Nikolay Davydenko overcome a slow start against Argentine Eduardo Schwank to beat him in four sets and redeem himself after losing his first singles match and playing his part in losing the doubles point as well. However, there was nothing he could do to help Mikhail Youzhny against David Nalbandian, who played like a man possessed this weekend. When is Nalby going to get back in action on the main tour, because he demolished both Davydenko and Youzhny, each in three sets, by blasting winners from every part of the court. I want this guy back in the top 20, where he belongs!

In Croatia, Marin Cilic put up a spirited effort against Novak Djokovic, and the crowd nearly rushed on court to break Djokovic's legs if they could have. The Croatians were warned numerous times to keep quiet, lest their man be docked a point. It was the last thing that Cilic needed, because he had enough trouble just handling Djokovic's stunning ground-stroke depth. There was nothing Cilic could do - this was the best I've seen Djokovic play in a long time. He was actually playing like the number two player in the world. We'll see if he can keep up that form during the U.S. hardcourt season.

Looking ahead to this next week, we have a strange, carryover week of clay court tournaments, before the U.S. hard court season starts in earnest. The tournaments in Bastad and Stuttgart are on the red clay. This Indian Summer of the clay court season has some interesting match-ups on offer. I'll do a quick overview of each.

In Stuttgart, Davydenko, Melzer, and Monfils are all in action. Also, an odd wildcard went to Dustin Brown, who was playing on grass this week in Newport. It'll be interesting to see how his net-rushing, big-serving game works on clay. The stronger field is probably in action at Bastad, where all the top Spanish players (minus Rafael Nadal) are going to try to forget about their recent Davis Cup loss. While hometown boy Soderling is the top seed, he'll need to navigate a field with Ferrer, Almagro, Verdasco, and Robredo. It'll be fun to see the last bit of clay-court tennis until next year.

Wimbledon Day 11

The men's semifinals are complete. Despite being two straight sets victories for the apparent favorites, they were fairly compelling matches, I have to say. Both featured one-break differences in the first and third sets, and very tight tiebreaks in the second. In general, the level of play from all four players was high, but ultimately, the two winners were able to perform more consistently and raise their games at the necessary moments.

Djokovic and Berdych both played some excellent points, but ultimately the biggest difference came down to serving acumen, and the tall Czech player was significantly stronger in this aspect of the game. Djokovic served too many double-faults, and he served them at crucial points in the match - on set point in the second set tiebreak and then at break point to allow Berdych to serve for the match in the third. This was despite some scintillating play to save (or allow Berdych to lose) four set points during that tiebreak. Ultimately, Djokovic has not played enough big matches of late, and this was the biggest one he had played in a very long time, while Berdych has become the surprise big-match player of the year.

The other semi was more hotly contested, though the scoreline is nearly identical. Murray had tens of thousands of his countrymen cheering him on, but that was not enough to get him past the lightning quick movement and bludgeoning forehand of Rafael Nadal. There were several moments in the match where Murray almost made that kind of stunning, game-changing shot that turned the tides of his matches against John Isner and Marin Cilic at the U.S. Open - highlight reel stuff that pumps him up and demoralizes his opponent. But at every instance, Nadal was ready and waiting to return one amazing near-winner with a slightly better reply.

Nadal looked the best he's looked all tournament, skipping around the court so quickly and lightly that it's easy to forget he was slogging his way through the French Open just a month ago, knee-deep in red clay. His forehand was unbelievable - he unleashed on a few shots that, to borrow a phrase from another sport, nearly "tore the cover off the ball." Despite the fact that he's going up against one of the bigger hitters on tour in the final, I find it unlikely that Berdych is going to be able to out-hit Nadal, if he plays this way.

As for tomorrow's women's final, Serena Williams is the clear favorite. No matter how different Zvonareva has looked this week, no matter how stunning her performance in her run to the final, it's nearly impossible to beat Serena in a grand slam final. Maria Sharapova has done it once and her own sister has done it twice, but that's it. Zvonareva's run to the final has been a combination of some mysterious force or event settling her brain, along with a draw that opened up for her at the right points, and some really excellent play when it was required. But I don't know if that will be enough to get her past Serena Williams.

The most dangerous thing for Serena is to assume that is already true, though. Zvonareva's best chance is to surprise the defending champion, catch her off-guard, and hopefully send her reeling long enough to land the knock-out blow. Zvonareva will have to play the match of her life, and Serena will have to be a little bit off her game, for the Russian to manage the upset. It's definitely unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's beyond the realm of possibility. We'll see what happens.

Wimbledon Days 9 and 10

We're all set for the women's final. I think if you had been told a few weeks ago that a Russian was going to make it to the final at Wimbledon, your list would probably have included Dementieva, Safina, Kuznetsova, maybe Petrova or Kleybanova, maybe even Kirilenko. But Zvonareva looked like she was on the road to total mental breakdown - I was on-site when I saw her play her match at the U.S. Open last year against Flavia Pennetta, where she completely broke down, started bawling on court, and tried to remove her knee wrappings. After that, it was hard to imagine her keeping herself together for a run like this one.

But she's played very well, in upsetting Kim Clijsters and then facing an in-form Bulgarian Pironkova. I was very impressed with her performance, I have to say. She served well and kept her errors to a minimum. Her play was pretty much unrecognizable from the time I watched her on center court nine months ago. She even upset the Williams sisters in doubles this week, as part of the first team to beat the Williams sisters in more than a year. This could be her week - but having to face Serena in the final is no easy task. I'll have more to say about that tomorrow.

The men's semifinals will take place tomorrow, and just like in the quarterfinals, there is one name missing. One side features Nadal and Murray, who both overcome less than ideal starts (though Nadal's was much slower) to beat their quarterfinal opponents in four sets. That's what everyone expected heading into the tournament. And on the other side, Djokovic is in the quarterfinals, which was essentially a guarantee as soon as he beat Hewitt and Roddick flamed out. But facing him, rather than defending champion and seven-time defending finalist Roger Federer, we have the big Czech phenom, Tomas Berdych!

That was an amazing match, honestly. The quarterfinals were generally good (none were classics, but all were interesting in their own way) but Berdych's display was unlike anything I'd ever seen from the big man. At least, it was unlike anything I'd seen from him before in that he maintained his amazing level of play until he had sealed the deal. Before, I've seen him play that well, only to collapse and give it away (see Australian Open 2008). This time Berdych managed to keep up his stellar level of play even when it looked like he might fade away. It wasn't like the match he played against Federer earlier in the year, which Federer essentially gave away with errors and shanked forehands. Berdych played well enough to take this match from the former world number one, who will - shockingly - drop to number three next week.

As for tomorrow's match-ups, Djokovic has not played especially well this fortnight, and has found himself in the semifinals thanks to some intermittent good point and an undeniably favorable draw. He took full advantage of meeting Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarterfinals, dispatching of him easily, but is that the best preparation for a player who just upset Roger Federer? Djokovic is 2-0 against Berdych, but it's hard to say that's enough to really predict the winner of tomorrow's match. Berdych is almost the favorite to win it, at this point. It should be interesting to see if Berdych can keep rolling, or if Djokovic will find his game and make his first Grand Slam final since winning the Australian Open in 2008.

But Nadal-Murray, now that's a tough one to pick. Andy Murray's progress at Wimbledon has been interesting. He's played four times, and each time, he made it a round further. In 2008, he made the quarterfinals after winning a stunning comeback against Richard Gasquet in the 4th round. At that point, he was clearly exhausted and lost to Nadal. They also played at the Australian Open the year before, where Nadal won a long, grinding match, which Murray only lost on fitness, not talent. This year, at the Australian Open, it went the other way, as Nadal's knees gave out on him and Murray made it through.

These two have quite a history, as you can tell, and whichever one of them wins in the semifinals will be the favorite to win the tournament. Nadal, though he may not be 100% fit, just dominated the French Open and still hasn't lost a match here since 2007. In fact, he hasn't lost to anyone not named Federer at Wimbledon since 2005. I'm really excited about this match - can Nadal make the final again, all but sealing his place as World Number One at the end of the year, or will Murray fulfill the British hopes and make it to the final, something that Tim Henman could never do?

There are so many storylines converging in this one match, so many angles - and it's worth noting that these are two stellar tennis players, both at or very near the height of their power. It should be a lot of fun to watch. Here's hoping for a pair of good matches and that no one gets hurt.

Week 18 Semifinals

Of the three ATP tournaments going on this week, two of them are going according to plan, more or less. Not much of particular excitement is taking place in either Estoril or Munich, but we'll address their semifinal lineups momentarily, anyway. First of all, I want to talk about one of the most exciting quarterfinal days we've had all year, at the Serbia Open in Belgrade.

The day opened with John Isner against Richard Gasquet. Despite Gasquet's lower ranking, there was little doubt that he was the favorite. He was the much more accomplished clay court player, and his game should have been suited to the surface. The first set was something of a rout, with Isner losing his serve twice and not even getting a break point against the Frenchman. The second set was tight, and got all the way to 5-all in the tiebreak. At this point, the story was that Isner should have folded under the pressure, but he held tough, took the set, and then won the third 6-3. It's a big win for the American, who has decided he doesn't want to believe the talk about U.S. players or big servers not being able to play on the clay.

The other American in action, Sam Querrey, had a match that I would have bet on him to lose. He took the first set and lost the second, then got up two breaks in the third set. At that point, he completely choked while serving for the match, and let the Russian Igor Andreev get back into the match. It looked similar to his loss in Rome, where he served for the match and was broken. However, here, Sam recovered and managed to serve it out in the second time of asking. Kudos to Querrey for getting out of his own way and winning.

The middle match was supposed to be the highlight, and it was probably the tightest match of the day. Stanislas Wawrinka, a very good clay-court player, was taking on a local favorite, so Viktor Troicki knew he had the crowd behind him. The match went 7-5, 6-7(3), 7-6(6). Wawrinka saved three match points in the third set. It was really a deflating loss for the Serbian fans, but it was nothing compared to what happened in the night match.

Novak Djokovic was slated to play Serbian teenager and wildcard Filip Krajinovic, and he sort of did - for a set. I don't think Djokovic was in any shape to play any kidn of tennis, but he showed up and did his best for a set, because he's the owner of the tournament. This is such a weird situation, but kudos to Djokovic for giving the fans something to see, even if it wasn't what they were hoping for. And it's a lucky break for Krajinovic, who had never won an ATP match before this week and whose previous loss came to a player ranked outside the top 450 in the world. Unless Sam Querrey loses his mind, then Krajinovic is going to get smoked in the semis. The match between Isner and Wawrinka is much more exciting. That one could go either way.

In any case, looking over to Estoril, things have gotten exceptionally boring. I mentioned at the beginning of the week that the only two players who could challenge Federer are Monfils and Ljubicic, who both withdrew before play began. That means that the second-highest ranked player in this tournament is Albert Montanes, ranked 30 places below Federer. That will be Fed's opponent tomorrow, but really, there isn't anyone left who should trouble Roger. A win is a win, but it's almost like he's winning a minor-league event at this point. I don't know how much momentum he can expect to get from notching wins over these guys, who - all respect to their capabilities - are relative scrubs.

There's some potential drama in Munich, at least, as Marcos Baghdatis, who had never been much of a clay court player before, won his match against the top German player, Philipp Kohlschreiber. But the German fans in the audience did get to see one of their own make it through, as Philipp Petzschner upset Tomas Berdych. These players will face the two men are now the favorites to meet in the final, Marin Cilic and Mikhail Youzhny. That could be an exciting match-up. We'll see how things shake out. Cilic has still been a bit shaky, but seems to be more confident than he has been in quite a few weeks.

On the women's tour, Serena Williams was doing her best Roger Federer impersonation in Rome. She lost to Jelena Jankovic, after being up a break in the third set, having a match point on serve, and then being up a mini-break in the third set tiebreak. It's an impressive fightback from Jankovic, who has now beaten both William Sisters back to back, but really a disappointing performance from Serena. Still, does she really need to win Rome again? We'll see how she bounces back in the coming weeks. Jankovic could have faced a resurgent Ana Ivanovic in the final, but her run was upset by another player having a dream week, 26th ranked Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez. Not quite the blockbuster final that the organizers were hoping for, but it's good to see Jankovic playing well again.

Rome Third Round

We're on to the round of 16 in Rome, with the major players making it through without too much difficulty. There were a few upsets today, though nothing compared to yesterday's defeat of Roger Federer by Ernests Gulbis. Really, nothing could have, except for possibly Nadal losing to Kohlschreiber. Nadal breezed through against the German, dropping four games and a mere nine points total through eight service games. Not much to report, there.

The best match of the day - or at least the tightest - may have been between Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka. The Swiss #2 managed to eke a tough win in a third set tiebreak, 8-6. But Wawrinka is a former top ten player and an accomplished clay courter, so this was always going to be tight. It isn't Berdych's best surface, either. The other two seeds who fell today were also tall guys - Marin Cilic looked to be cruising against Feliciano Lopez, only to lose the second set in a tiebreak and the third 6-4. Really, Cilic had not business losing that match, as Lopez may be the Spaniard with the least game on clay. On the other hand, John Isner was almost expected to lose against Brazilian Tomaz Bellucci, and that may have hurt me in the pressure moments of his 7-6, 7-5 loss. While he wasn't seeded, Lleyton Hewitt certainly hoped to put up a better performance than a 2 and 3 loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez after he had worked so hard to upset Mikhail Youzhny in the first round.

Despite the loss of a few of the top players, things are looking very interesting from here on out. Federer's departure is the most surprising, and his section of the draw is now pretty much bare. As Cilic and Querrey have already lost, the lone seed left in that quarter is Ivan Ljubicic. He should beat Feliciano Lopez tomorrow on the second court, while Ernest Gulbis plays on center. He was on the main stage on Monday because he was facing the number one player in the world, but he'll be there tomorrow because he's up against the last Italian player in the draw, Filippo Vilandri. Gulbis really ought to win that match, but it wouldn't be impossible for him to be hungover after the biggest win of his career.

Nadal faces Victor Hanescu in tomorrow's night match, and that should be an easy match for the Spaniard. He'll have to be ready for the quartefinals, though, because he'll face either Robin Soderling, who bested him last year at the French, or Stanislas Wawrinka. That's one of tomorrow's best matches, and definitely the best one taking place on the second court. They have a 1-1 head to head, and I think this match is almost a pick-em.

Verdasco and Tsonga are each up tomorrow against a couple of untested clay court specialists, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Santiago Giraldo. I expect both of them to come through. Their potential quarterfinal opponents, though, have tougher tasks ahead of them.

Andy Murray, who would face Tsonga if both win, has to be excited about getting his first win here in Rome. His losses in the last four tournaments he's played have been so discouraging that he'll take any momentum he could get. However, I'll wager he wishes he could have another match under his belt before he had to take on David Ferrer, who is his opponent tomorrow. On a normal day and on any other surface, I'd give Murray the edge. But considering how poorly he's been playing and how comfortable Ferrer is on clay, this is a tough ask for the Scotsman tomorrow. Novak Djokovic, in the bottom section of the draw, faces Tomaz Bellucci, who doesn't have the proven results of Ferrer, but is still a solid young clay court player. I think that Bellucci has about as much chance of staging an upset as Gulbis did against Federer. He'll need a little help, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Looking ahead, I think that Gulbis should be disappointed if he doesn't make the semis, here. He's won the toughest match he could have expected, and he won't face any comparable resistance until that stage. Even if he faces Ljubicic in the quarters, he should be able to take that match. He'll likely find Nadal there, who must be hoping for Soderling to beat Wawrinka so he get some revenge. The other half of the draw is much more interesting, with a lot more riding on the matches that Murray and Djokovic play tomorrow. But I wouldn't be too surprised to see any of six of the remaining eight players make their way to the final. Sorry Giraldo and Garcia-Lopez.

Monte Carlo Semifinals

It looks like the topsy-turvy world of tennis we saw in the first two Masters Series events of the year may have calmed down somewhat. The final four standing in the first Masters tournament played on clay feature four very familiar faces, and four of the best clay-court players on tour. Fernando Verdasco is actually the weakest of the players remaining, since his game is a big more situated towards hard courts to the detriment of his clay court prowess. The other three have all had good results on hard courts, but their games are at their best when they're on red clay.

Verdasco faces Novak Djokovic, who is looking to pick up his clay-court season where he left it in 2009, before his amazing semifinal loss to Nadal at Rome. After that, which was one of the best matches of the year, he was hung over at Roland Garros and didn't play up to his potential. Prior to that, he had been the second-best clay court player on tour, after Nadal. So far, he's been playing very strong tennis, winning both of his matches on clay against the U.S. in Davis Cup, and yet to drop a set here in Monte Carlo, despite some tough opposition. You have to favor Djokovic in this match, as I believe he has both better shotmaking and a better chance to be solid from the baseline.

The other semifinal features David Ferrer facing off against Rafael Nadal, which will probably be even more one-sided. Verdasco and Ferrer are fine players, top-ten quality guys, no doubt. But they're playing against the two best guys on tour on this surface, and Ferrer in particular is facing the best player ever on clay. So it's a really tough ask to beat him. Nadal has only lost 16 matches on clay in his career, and that's against 181 wins and 25 titles. That's just mind-boggling.

It's almost a certainty that Nadal will face Djokovic in the final at this point, and that's an appetizing matchup, after the battles they had last year. Ferrer and Verdasco are out to spoil the party, but I don't give either of them a huge chance to do so. After some crazy and unexpected results in Miami and Indian Wells, it's maybe a nice thing to have the top two seeds meet in the final, here. But we'll just have to wait and see.

Monte Carlo Quarterfinals

There is no doubt that the clay season has at last begun in earnest; here we are at the last eight in Monte Carlo, and five of the players still standing are Spanish. They live on the red stuff, so you can hear the collective Spanish tennis nation suppressing their excitement at this early sign of what may be some serious dominance.

The only Spaniard who could have made it this far who lost today was Tommy Robredo, who lost a fairly routine match to David Nalbandian. Good for David, for following up his gutsy win over Mikhail Youzhny with a solid performance against an experienced clay-courter like Robredo. Nalbandian was just better on the big points, saving 6 out of Robredo's 7 break point chances. Don't expect Nalbandian's ranking to stay around 150 for very long - that's a promise. I expect him to be seeded by the U.S. Open. You heard it here first!

The only other non-Spanish players still in the draw are Novak Djokovic, who had a relatively easy time with Stan Wawrinka, and Phillip Kohlschreiber, who ousted his German compatriot Petzschner with even less difficulty and fanfare. For Kohlschreiber, it's great to reach a quarterfinal, but he just got lucky to find himself facing an addled Andy Murray and a pair of nobodies. His good run ends here, as tomorrow he'll face David Ferrer, and despite a close head to head - including a blowout win for the German on clay back in 2008 - I pick the bulldog here to win relatively easily. It was a nice run while it lasted, though.

Speaking of nice runs, Djokovic's opponent in the quarterfinals is David Nalbandian. As I mentioned above, Nalbandian's result has been great. Nobody's going to be surprised if he loses to the top seed at the tournament, but he is showing that he is still such a clean ball-striker and fluid mover that he has the capacity to beat anybody. If he can even make this match competitive, then there's no telling how well he can do this year. I still like Djokovic to get through it, though, but look for some spectacular ball-striking in this match from both sides.

The first all-Spanish quarterfinal features Fernando Verdasco and Albert Montanes. "Hot Sauce" is 3-0 against his lower-ranked opponent, and I think that streak continues through tomorrow. Not as much to say about this one.

On the other hand, the last quarterfinal is absolutely fascinating. The only two Monte Carlo titlists still playing the game face off in what is really disappointing to be happening this early in the tournament. Juan Carlos Ferrero has the most wins on clay of any player on tour so far this year. He already has a pair of titles on dirt since January, while Rafael Nadal's clay court pedigree needs no explanation. And in his first two matches, Nadal has lost 40 points. That's 40 points in 26 games. He's also lost 2 out of 26 games. That's not just good, that is terrifying.

This is an absolutely essential tournament for Nadal. He hasn't won a title since May 3 of last year. That's more than 11 months. It is his longest dry spell since winning his first title back way back in 2004. He has won Monte Carlo every year since 2005, and no one - no player in the open era - has won a tournament six years running. So he's gunning for history as well as trying to get his current game back on track, after a relatively poor year that saw him drop from the number two spot. If he can right the ship and win this title, then everyone will know that things will be back to normal. But if he doesn't... Nadal may never get back to the dominance he was capable of in the past few years.

It will be a huge ask for Ferrero to upset Nadal, considering how brutal, even cruel his first two victories were. But their last meeting (of 8) was a victory for Ferrero, and even on clay. But that may have been an anomaly. Nadal leads 6-2 in the overall head to head, and unless a different player shows up tomorrow than we saw yesterday or the day before, I don't see what Ferrero can do. He may have been the best player on clay so far this year, but Nadal is the best clay court player of all time, and he's looked like it so far this tournament.

Monte Carlo Day 4

We're on to the third round in Monte Carlo, and all 16 remaining players are in action. You can tell that the draw here is not as strong as it had been at the last two Masters Series events, or as it will likely be at the majority of the Masters events later in the year. There are some big names there, but also a higher percentage of relatively middle-of-the-road talent to be making the last sixteen at a tournament of his stature.

Petzchner and Kohlschreiber, for example, is a match that nobody at the tournament is getting too excited about. Even the German contingent can't be too excited, as one of their players is going to have to lose. Kohlschreiber should be excited about his win over Andy Murray, but that didn't have too much to do with his play. Murray would have lost to just about anybody, yesterday. Still, he needs to take advantage of this chance to make a run.

The rest of the matches have at least one player who is top ten or at least former top ten, so there's more of interest elsewhere on the grounds. Marin Cilic faces a tough match against clay-court veteran Albert Montanes. Cilic is a better player, but Montanes has much more experience on this kind of surface, so that could work against him. It's a tough match for the young Croat, so we'll see how he can handle the pressure.

The other opening match is much more deserving of the situation, as Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych go up against each other, in a rematch of a quarterfinal from Miami. Berdych won that one in a tight match, but I think the Spaniard has the advantage on clay. This is match between two experienced and talented players, who had a recent, tight encounter. Could be one of tomorrow's better matches.

Nadal is up next on center court, and he got a cupcake of a second-round opponent. Michael Berrer is another German, but this is not the place for him. He's 5-12 on clay, so don't expect him to trouble Nadal. If Nadal plays even close to the way he played against De Bakker, he could win without even dropping that single game. The bookies have given Berrer 60:1 odds, which may actually be generous.

Ivan Ljubicic has his first real test tomorrow, against Spaniard David Ferrer. On any other surface, this would be a tight match, but the clay will slow down the Croat's serve and big groundstrokes, giving Ferrer more time to get to the balls. Ferrer has won the pair's last four meetings, and I expect he'll get the W tomorrow as well. Ljubicic just can't hit through another player here the way he did in Indian Wells.

There are a lot of Spaniards around the grounds, as you may have noticed. Tommy Robredo is another one, and he faces the comeback story of the tournament so far, David Nalbandian, who won a great match against Mikhail Youzhny in the last round. It's interesting, actually... the last two times this pair met was two and four years ago at this very tournament, in this very round. Robredo won in 2006 in a tight three-setter, and Nalbandian won in 2008 in dominant fashion. This is all in Nalbandian's hands, I would say. If he can hit the ball consistently and deep, Robredo just doesn't have the firepower to trouble him. But he's been off the court for so long, it's tough to stay solid for that long. This could be a good one, too.

Another Spaniard faces Frenchman JW Tsonga on center court after Nadal, as the only former champion in the field, Juan Carlos Ferrero, faces off against the big-hitting Frenchman. Despite the fact that his home Slam is on clay, Tsonga's game has always been better suited to the hardcourts of Australia or New York. Tsonga leads the head to head 2-0, but the pair has never played on clay, and Ferrero is the best claycourter of the year, thus far. Surprisingly, Tsonga's career record on clay is only 12-7. Just because of the surface, I may lean towards Ferrero, here. More of a toss-up than some other matches, though.

The last match of note is top seed Novak Djokovic against a great Swiss player - of course, I mean Stan "The Man" Wawrinka, who actually has the longest winning streak on tour, at the moment. He's coming off his first title in quite a few years, and riding quite a bit of confidence. Djokovic, despite looking solid in the first round, has every reason to be shaky. An upset here is unlikely, as Djokovic is 7-2 against Stan, and has won the last 6. But it could be tight, and Djokovic may not be able to keep his game together if he's challenged.

Monte Carlo Day 3

It's Wednesday in Monte Carlo, and that means that the rest of the second-round matches will be underway. Finally, we'll see how the top seeds are ready to adjust to the European clay-court swing. Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray are all in action tomorrow, and realistically, none of them should be tested in any of their matches. Murray may face the toughest test in German Phillipp Kohlschreiber, but if he can't handle the German on clay in the second round at Monte Carlo, then he can't expect to be a force on this surface for a while. That's the most interesting match among the top guys, to see what kind of form the Scot is in. Has he gotten over the loss to Federer at the Aussie Open? Roddick was basically out of action for the rest of the year, once he lost Wimbledon, so Murray may have to wait a bit to get his head back in the game, yet.

But that's not to say that the other top players should have no trouble at all. Djokovic, despite his relatively easy first match against Florent Serra, is struggling with his game, after a pair of lackluster performances at the last two Masters Series tournaments. He's been having trouble with his game, he's been mentally drained since his two wins against the US in Davis Cup, and he just fired his coach Todd Martin. He needs to get his serve back together, and he needs to cut out the unforced errors. We'll see if he's back on track.

For Nadal, the problem isn't mental. It will be interesting to see if he's back at his physical best. Clay is his surface, and he has a lot of points to defend for the next few months. How are his knees? How's his movement? Will he be as fast as he's been in the past? His first match should be a good test, as Thiemo De Bakker may not have a lot of experience at tour level, but he has four Challenger titles, all on clay. So he knows how to play on crushed brick. A handful of Challenger titles isn't enough to really unseat the king of clay, though, so I expect Nadal to come through. It will all depend on how cleanly he can make it through the match, to gauge how well he's playing, now that he's back at home and should be finding the ball in his wheelhouse, more often than not.

There are a couple other matches of interest taking place tomorrow, with four players who could make a run at this tournament. Ernests Gulbis is playing Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who followed up his victory in last week's final against Victor Hanescu by beating him again in the first round here. Gulbis made his debut a couple years ago at the French Open, so both of these guys can play some dirtball. I'm anxious to see how this one turns out. Gulbis looked like he might be ready to reach the next level when he won his first title on U.S. hard courts, but he was mostly AWOL during the two Masters Series there. We'll see if he can do better here.

The other match to keep an eye on is Mikhail Youzhny against David Nalbandian. Nalbandian is still on the comeback trail, but he hasn't been gifted any particularly fortunate draws up to this point. This tournament might be his best chance to get back to a quarterfinal, if he can play close to the level of his former best. But he's up against another relative veteran, who's been playing some much better ball as of late. Youzhny is near his career high ranking, but these two have never met on clay, so this could be an interesting match to see if Nalbandian is a player who might still have some good tennis ahead of him, or if his surgery and layoff was just too much to recover from.

Monte Carlo Preview and Week 14 Review

With the preview week for the clay court season completed, things are about to get underway in earnest. Well, sort of. First of all, the results.

Sam Querrey ended the potential for a disaster to get any worse by beating Wayne Odesnik, but then he continued his poor performance in finals and lost to Juan Ignacio Chela. In his defense, clay has to be considered Querrey's worst surface, at least according to the way he plays, and it's also Chela's best. Still, Querrey's game really got loose in the final game of the last two sets, which is a shame, because he played well - for the most part. To be a really elite player, though, Sam's going to need to be more focused in finals. Credit to Chela, for winning his first title in three years.

In Casablanca, there was another winner who hadn't won a title in quite a few years. Stan Wawrinka had gone 0-5 since 2006, including a runner-up earlier this year to Marin Cilic. He beat Victor Hanescu to claim the second title of his career. It's surprising to me that Wawrinka can't put a strong week of tennis together more often. He's really a force when he's playing his best. We'll see if he can build off this victory for the rest of the claycourt season, where he generally does well.

Looking ahead to Monte Carlo, there's really only one question: can Rafael Nadal continue his dominance on this surface for another year? He is 29-1 at this event, winning it the last five years, a record which is just unbelievable. Amazingly, there is another multiple titlist in the field, as Juan Carlos Ferrero won here in 2002 and 2003. Everyone else who's won this tournament is out of tennis, if you can believe that.

Nadal's road to another title won't be easy, but he could have gotten a tougher draw. After his first-round bye, he'll get likely get young gun Thiemo De Bakker, who has been anxious for this part of the season to come along, I imagine. But he probably wasn't hoping his second match at the first Masters event on his favorite surface would be against Rafael Nadal. Beyond that, Nadal could face Juan Monaco or Jarkko Nieminen, and then either Tsonga or Ferrero. It's a shame, but it's not unlikely that we'll see the two titlists playing each other in the quarters.

The field at this event is not as strong as it might be, as a number of top players are out injured, and several others are taking their free "skip a Masters event" card at this event. Only five of the top ten players are in attendance, so the top seed at this event is Novak Djokovic. He'll have to get through a pretty tough quarter in his own right. The final between Hanescu and Wawrinka gets repeated as a first-round match here, which is a bit unusual. Another first-round match to watch here is Gulbis-Chiudinelli. Djokovic's quarter also has Robredo facing off against a potentially dangerous Horacio Zeballos, as well Nalbandian and Youzhny in the mix.

Murray's quarter is arguably the weakest, but these smaller Masters events are pretty stacked. He'll open against either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber, and he'll need to up his level to beat either of those guys on red clay. After that, he may get Melzer, and is likely to find David Ferrer waiting for him in the quarters. I don't expect to see Ljubicic make it out of this quarter, but he's been a surprising figure as of late. This is the quarter that's most likely to have a shock contender make it out of, I'd expect.

The last quarter, featuring fourth-seed Marin Cilic, has some big hitters scattered in it as well. Cilic opens against Andreev, who loves the way the clay slows down theb all and lets him really get around and rip his forehand. He'll then face either Seppi, Montanes, or Baghdatis, all tough players. The bottom section of that quarter will likely see Gasquet, Verdasco, or Berdych come out of it. Cilic's career record on clay is only 22-21, so he can make some headway this season. For comparison, though, Murray is only 20-18. They need to really play up to their seeding at this tournament.

We'll see if order will be restored this week, or whether the run of incredible upsets is going to continue as we've seen in the first two Masters Series of the year. The smart money is on Nadal, as in fact, the odds are better for Nadal winning than any of the other players in the draw. But things have not been quite as promising in Nadal's game as they have been in years past, so we'll see if he can play at his usual level.

Miami Preview

I know that action has already started in Miami, but none of the seeds have played yet, so we'll take a look at their placement in the draw. Even if the last Masters Series event ended in a huge surprise, but the winner was still seeded.

Federer, in his loss to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, didn't give the Cypriot much credit. Baggy ended up in the Swiss's quarter once again, so he may get a chance at a rematch. But there are some other players there for Federer to worry about. It's unlikely that Federer will be challenged until the fourth round, where he may face either Gilles Simon or Tomas Berdych. His quartefinal opponent may be Baghdatis, Verdasco, or Cilic. All of these guys are dangerous players on hard courts, and if Federer isn't quite as motivated to play at these Masters Series events as he once was, anyone could play a great match and score an upset. Or he may want to forget about what happened in Miami as quickly as possible and steamroll his way to the semis. Also possible.

Andy Murray's quarter is opposite Federer's and it doesn't look much easier. Murray could get Fish in the second round, then Feliciano Lopez in the third. After that, he may get Wawrinka or Youzhny. That's a damn tough eighth of the draw to find yourself in. And if he makes it through all that to reach the quarters, he'll likely either get a rematch with Robin Soderling, or he'll play big-hitting Fernando Gonzalez. Janko Tipsarevic, who beat Murray in Dubai, is also here, but I don't see him getting another shot at Murray. That's a tough road to the semis, only to possibly find Federer there.

I think the reason that all of the top seeds got relatively difficult draws is in part because of the depth of men's tennis, but also because a lot of really top-notch players are currently underranked, and can end up anywhere in a draw like this. Nadal opens against Taylor Dent and could get David Nalbandian in the third round, as an example of just how far some players are underranked. After that, he may get either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic - just about as different as two playing styles can get, so that's tough to get ready for, when you're thinking ahead. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be one of two players - it could JW Tsonga or big-hitting American John Isner. Isner was lucky to find himself in Tsonga's section, as the Frenchman has trouble dealing with the really big servers.

The final quarter of the draw is Djokovic's, and while I was hoping for the Djoker to find Richard Gasquet in the second round, Olivier Rochus spoiled that. I thought that he may get James Blake in the third round as well, but Blake has his hands full with Serbian teenager Filip Krajinovic. There are still plenty of tough players in his little section, though. Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro can both hit anyone off the court on the right day, and Djokovic's seeded third-round opponent, Tomaz Bellucci, is still looking for his breakthrough win. If Djokovic got the rest he needed in the past week, he should make it through, but otherwise, who knows?

Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent is seeded to be Andy Roddick, last week's losing finalist. The good news for Andy is that there's only one player in his 1/8 of the draw that should really threaten him. The bad news is that player is last week's titlist, Ivan Ljubicic. But keep in mind that Ljubicic just turned 31, so it may be tough for him to keep up such a fantastic run of form for another week and a half. Roddick will I'm sure be hoping that Tommy Robredo upsets Ljubicic in order to get another drubbing from Roddick in the round of sixteen.

In the last tournament, upsets were the order of the day. Will the top players restore order here in Miami, or will we have another surprise set of finalists?

Indian Wells Quarterfinals

The round of sixteen is complete in California, and it was - honestly - not all that exciting. There were two three-set matches, but every single match (except one) was won by the higher-ranked player. The lone upset was an exhausted Novak Djokovic, who fell to Ivan Ljubicic. He did not seem especially saddened or surprised by the loss. Hopefully he'll get some rest and be ready for action again in Miami.

The two three setters were between Nadal-Isner and Robredo-Baghdatis - the second set featured a steamrolling performance by Baggy, but the Spaniard was able to win the other two sets pretty comfortably. I think the Cypriot was hurt by playing so late last night, and he was tired against Robredo, who is doubtless a very physically fit player. Robredo also has the dubious honor of being the best player of the last decade never to make a grand slam semifinal.

The other three-setter was less topsy-turvy. Even though it went three sets, Nadal was in charge against the big-serving American the entire time. He played one loose service game in the second set, and it was done. But other than that, Nadal played his usual imperious game. He went the entire first set without making an unforced error. He then went on to win a doubles match against Llodra and Ram. Isner also went on to win a doubles match, so it's good to see he wasn't discouraged by his loss.

Beyond that, the other round of 16 matches were not terrifically interesting. Almagro was forced to retire in the first game of the second set, after he had started the match on fire, winning the first two games before losing the next seven. It's always a shame when a tough match ends and then the winner has to retire in their subsequent match - for the loser, for the crowd, and for the tournament. James Blake has to be kicking himself right now.

At this point, it's pretty clear which half of the draw is stronger. The remaining players in the top half are seeded 4, 6, 7, and 18. The remaining players in the bottom half are seeded 3, 19, 20, and 21. It's tough to see Nadal losing before the final against Berdych, Ljubicic, or Monaco, considering how well he's played so far. Unless an injure flares up or he comes down bad on a knee, he should make it to Sunday's final.

The story in the top half is more interesting. You have to pick Andy Roddick as the favorite to make it to the semis against Robredo, as the American is 10-0 against Tommy. But Murray and Soderling haven't played in four years, and neither player even resembles who they were in 2006. And then taking the winner of that match against Roddick, to me it may be a bit of a three-way pick-em, but Murray does have to be the favorite. And Soderling is 2-0 against Roddick, who is 3-6 against the other Andy. But Roddick has to be excited with the way the draw is opening up for him. To have all of his potentially troubling opponents get taken out by others - Tiparevic, Monfils, Federer, and Baghdatis. Roddick has not yet played a player who has beaten him even once. He is 22-0 against his first four opponents, coming into the tournament. It's tough to ask for a better road to the final.

It is worth noting that two of the four lower seeds (18-21) have won Masters Series tournaments (Robredo and Berdych), and a third has made multiple finals (Ljubicic). So it's not like they've never been here before. Despite the fact that my draw with my predictions is an absolute shambles, I am really enjoying this tournament and am greatly looking forward to the last three rounds.

Indian Wells Tuesday - Stunning Upset!

As the action draws to a close today, we finish what was a day of not all that thrilling tennis, up until the last match. First, a look at the other action around the grounds. Most of the seeded players cruised today. Roddick, Soderling, Murray, and Robredo all made it through without dropping a set. Only Soderling even went to a tiebreak. Tsonga lost a set on route to victory, but it was only a momentary lapse, and Montanes did not really have his teeth in the second and third sets.

The second-last match of the night, between James Blake and Nicolas Almagro, was a tight one, but was marred by some admittedly questionable calls at key moments, and subsequently more frustration than is necessary from Blake. He was playing well, but Almagro was serving bombs and smacking winners off both sides. Usually, Almagro can't keep that up for an entire match, but he was on tonight. It's no shame that James lost, and hopefully he'll be encouraged by the strength of his player this week.

The following match had all of the intensity and none of the controversy, as well as a much more marquee match-up. Twenty-seventh seed Marcos Baghdatis was facing Roger Federer in a rematch of the pair's Australian Open final from 2007. They had faced each other five other times, and Baghdatis was 2-15 in sets against the mighty Fed. When Federer won the first set 7-5 tonight, it looked like it would be more of the same. But Baghdatis fought back. Even though he was down by several match points, he brought the match to a third-set tiebreak and won with a single minibreak, 7-4. It's really a famous victory for the Cypriot, who is playing like he was when he made the top ten. There's no reason he can't find his way back there, if he can keep up this level of play.

As Cara Black and Liezel Huber also lost today, that means that the only top seeds left in the tournament are Nestor and Zimonjic in the men's doubles. This really is an odd tournament, in terms of favorites dropping like flies. Today, the women's side was relatively quiet, with the only upset between Maria Martinez-Sanchez and Yanina Wickmayer, which isn't a huge upset by any means. And Suarez-Navarro and Kleybanova are still on-court, so who knows what will happen there. So far, there have been six breaks in seven games, so Suarez-Navarro is up a hold.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the two halves of the tournament come together. Baghdatis is really at a disadvantage, having had to play so late and then come back tomorrow. Fortunately, he'll be last on Court 2 to play Tommy Robredo, but just based on health, it's going to be a tough ask for the Cypriot to follow up that win.

Also on court 2, Guillermo-Garcia Lopez plays Juan Monaco, which is not quite the match-up that you'd expect this deep into a hardcourt Masters series event. Good for both of these guys for making it this far, though. Unfortunately, they don't have much interest here in the states, so they're up first. Look for that match to be poorly-attended. Next up, Ivan Ljubicic faces Novak Djokovic, and if Djokovic decides to leave the court for a set again this match, expect the veteran Ljubicic to take advantage, unlike Kohlschreiber in the last round. There might be another upset here, depending on whether or not Djokovic shows up. Finally on court 2, Viktor Troicki will play his second game of the tournament against Tomaz Berdych. I'll admit that I don't give Troicki much of a shot here, particularly with how well Berdych played against Verdasco.

On center court, there are some real crackerjack matches. John Isner is playing Rafael Nadal, and though Nadal's knees have not seemed to be troubling him thus far this tournament, the big-hitting giant will give them their sternest test yet. After that, Tsonga and Soderling are playing in the earliest meeting of top ten players in this tournament. Both are playing great, but Soderling has a 2-0 advantage. Tsonga sometimes doesn't handle playing against big servers that well, which is strange since he's one of the best servers on tour. Soderling may have the advantage, but this should be close.

In the night session, both Andys are in action, but not against each other. Andy Roddick faces Austrian Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, who got a walkover from Simon Gruel. Roddick's last opponent had gotten a retirement as well, and it didn't seem to do him much good. But Melzer is a tougher opponent, even though Roddick is 9-0 against him. As Bagdhatis showed today, a dominating head-to-head does not mean a dominating victory. The last match of the day features Andy Murray against Nicolas Almagro. Now Almagro is exactly the type of heavy-hitter who can trouble Murray, and if the Spaniard plays (and particularly serves) as well as he did against Blake, then Murray could be in trouble. But Murray can have a way of blunting those players' power, and getting them off their game enough to start missing. Look for him to do that tomorrow.

One final little NB - Isner and Querrey are playing Karlovic and Vemic in doubles tomorrow. The two biggest players on the tour on opposite sides of the net again.

Really, the latter stages of the tournament begins tomorrow in earnest. I'm anxious to see if the trend of upsets continues.

Indian Wells Monday Wrap-up

Even though Monday's action in Indian Wells isn't quite finished yet (Querrey and Isner still have to play), I'm going to go ahead and write my wrap-up. This is the disadvantage of tennis actually taking place in your time zone, but it is the only one.

There was some great action today, with some minor upsets, some gutsy performances, a couple real dominations, and even a few chokes. The worst choke of the day belongs to German Phillip Kohlschreiber, who failed to capitalize on the fact that Djokovic simply did not show up for the second set of the match. After being up a set and a break, Djokovic went walkabout and lost eight games in a row. The Serb evened it up, but then got down 0-40 on serve while down 4-5. Kohlschreiber failed to take advantage of any, and then lost the match in a third-set tiebreak. A real escape for the Djoker, who has only decided to show up about 60% of the time for his last two matches.

Rafael Nadal, on the other hand, looked imperious in his match against Mario Ancic. Nothing that Super Mario could do in that one.

Strangely, there wasn't much that Fernando Verdasco could do today, either. In what was not necessarily a surprising result, Tomas Berdych just decimated the Spaniard love and three. They had some tough matches in the past, so the manner of Berdych's victory was a bit of a shock. It sounds like Hot Sauce may have been having some trouble with a new racket, but it wasn't just his racket that was bothering him today, it was his big-hitting Czech opponent.

The other two upsets of the day were Juan Monaco over Juan Carlos Ferrero, in a tight three-setter, and then Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over Tomaz Bellucci, who won the first and then kind of lost his focus in the last two sets, having a lot more trouble hitting his big forehands and unable to keep his first-serve percentage over fifty. In fact, it was 39% in the second set!

There were a handful of upsets on the women's side, as well. Carla Suarez-Navarro followed up her win over Kuznetsova by beat Aggie Szavay. Azarenka also lost, rather meekly in fact, to Maria Martinez-Sanchez, so it was a good day for hyphenated Spaniards. Shahar Peer beat Flavia Pennetta in three as well, but the upset of the day was Alisa Kleybanova over Kim Clijsters in the third set tiebreak. Clijsters really should have come away with this match, she just made a few too many errors at key moments. Kleybanova is looking fitter than ever and is on quite a hot streak right now.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the marquee match is definitely Roger Federer versus Marcos Baghdatis, which could be a thriller. Also, keep an eye out for Petrova-Wozniacki and Radwanska-Bartoli. On paper, the women's matches are better than the men's tomorrow, but as usual, anything could happen.

I hope that the court that has Dudi Sela and Tommy Robredo has cameras, because that could be a fun match, even if it lacks star power. Lopez-Soderling should feature a ton of aces, and Thiemo De Bakker gets another shot at Andy Roddick, after falling to him this year at the Aussie Open.

Well, I'm going to head to bed and see if I can watch Querrey and Isner through to the finish line.

Indian Wells Weekend Wrap-up

We're into the third round at Indian Wells, and things are mostly going as expected. By that, I mean that there have been about as many surprising upsets as one usually finds in a tournament of this size. Three of the favorites on the women's side are already out - Justine Henin fell to Gisela Dulko, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova fell to Carla Suarez Navarro, and Maria Sharapova lost to Jie Zheng. At this point, it's likely that the semifinals could be Clijsters-Azarenka and Dementieva-Wozinacki.

In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.

There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.

David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.

Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.

In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.

Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.

John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.

I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.