Monte Carlo Quarterfinals

There is no doubt that the clay season has at last begun in earnest; here we are at the last eight in Monte Carlo, and five of the players still standing are Spanish. They live on the red stuff, so you can hear the collective Spanish tennis nation suppressing their excitement at this early sign of what may be some serious dominance.

The only Spaniard who could have made it this far who lost today was Tommy Robredo, who lost a fairly routine match to David Nalbandian. Good for David, for following up his gutsy win over Mikhail Youzhny with a solid performance against an experienced clay-courter like Robredo. Nalbandian was just better on the big points, saving 6 out of Robredo's 7 break point chances. Don't expect Nalbandian's ranking to stay around 150 for very long - that's a promise. I expect him to be seeded by the U.S. Open. You heard it here first!

The only other non-Spanish players still in the draw are Novak Djokovic, who had a relatively easy time with Stan Wawrinka, and Phillip Kohlschreiber, who ousted his German compatriot Petzschner with even less difficulty and fanfare. For Kohlschreiber, it's great to reach a quarterfinal, but he just got lucky to find himself facing an addled Andy Murray and a pair of nobodies. His good run ends here, as tomorrow he'll face David Ferrer, and despite a close head to head - including a blowout win for the German on clay back in 2008 - I pick the bulldog here to win relatively easily. It was a nice run while it lasted, though.

Speaking of nice runs, Djokovic's opponent in the quarterfinals is David Nalbandian. As I mentioned above, Nalbandian's result has been great. Nobody's going to be surprised if he loses to the top seed at the tournament, but he is showing that he is still such a clean ball-striker and fluid mover that he has the capacity to beat anybody. If he can even make this match competitive, then there's no telling how well he can do this year. I still like Djokovic to get through it, though, but look for some spectacular ball-striking in this match from both sides.

The first all-Spanish quarterfinal features Fernando Verdasco and Albert Montanes. "Hot Sauce" is 3-0 against his lower-ranked opponent, and I think that streak continues through tomorrow. Not as much to say about this one.

On the other hand, the last quarterfinal is absolutely fascinating. The only two Monte Carlo titlists still playing the game face off in what is really disappointing to be happening this early in the tournament. Juan Carlos Ferrero has the most wins on clay of any player on tour so far this year. He already has a pair of titles on dirt since January, while Rafael Nadal's clay court pedigree needs no explanation. And in his first two matches, Nadal has lost 40 points. That's 40 points in 26 games. He's also lost 2 out of 26 games. That's not just good, that is terrifying.

This is an absolutely essential tournament for Nadal. He hasn't won a title since May 3 of last year. That's more than 11 months. It is his longest dry spell since winning his first title back way back in 2004. He has won Monte Carlo every year since 2005, and no one - no player in the open era - has won a tournament six years running. So he's gunning for history as well as trying to get his current game back on track, after a relatively poor year that saw him drop from the number two spot. If he can right the ship and win this title, then everyone will know that things will be back to normal. But if he doesn't... Nadal may never get back to the dominance he was capable of in the past few years.

It will be a huge ask for Ferrero to upset Nadal, considering how brutal, even cruel his first two victories were. But their last meeting (of 8) was a victory for Ferrero, and even on clay. But that may have been an anomaly. Nadal leads 6-2 in the overall head to head, and unless a different player shows up tomorrow than we saw yesterday or the day before, I don't see what Ferrero can do. He may have been the best player on clay so far this year, but Nadal is the best clay court player of all time, and he's looked like it so far this tournament.