We had a pair of hometown winners this week, as Roger Federer beat Novak Djokovic in Basel and David Ferrer beat surprise finalist and lucky loser Marcel Granollers in Valencia. Once the finals were set, those are the results we might have expected, but the semifinals had a couple of surprises.
The Roddick-Federer match in the semis looked like it would be an appetizing match-up, but unfortunately, Andy Roddick didn't really show up for the match. He played one of the poorest matches I've seen him play since he lost to Gilles Simon while suffering from mono this summer. He started the match serving at about 30%, and while he did improve that percentage as the match went on, his serve was never really on. And for Roddick, it's hard for him to win a match against anyone when that shot isn't working, and it's impossible for him to do it against Federer, even when Roger doesn't have to do anything special. That's really the worst possible result for Roddick - if he had lost but played a respectable match, he could take pride in that, but losing the match due to his own poor standard of play is not going to help build his confidence going into the last weeks of the season.
David Ferrer played Robin Soderling in the Valencia semis for the fifth time this year, and he won for the second time. That was a bit of a surprise, but Marcel Granollers' dismissal of Gilles Simon was more of a shock. Granollers had lost to Teymuraz Gabashvili in the qualifying draw, but got into the main tournament thanks to a withdrawal. He then won three matches against higher-ranked players and made it to the final.
As a result of the action this week, there weren't any major moves on the road to the finals in London. There's one week of regular action left, and here's how it stands. The likeliest outcome is that the current top 8 players will be the 8 who make it to the finals. The only way that Berdych (currently ranked 6th) doesn't make it is if either Youzhny or Verdasco wins the tournament and Roddick and Ferrer pass him, which would mean Roddick would have to make the semis and Ferrer would have to make at least the second round, while Berdych doesn't even win a match. The odds are good for Berdych.
Roddick and Ferrer are also in good shape, but they're not as sure bets. Melzer could bump Roddick if the Austrian wins the tournament and Roddick doesn't get any points, Youzhny would need to make the final, and Verdasco could do it by making the semis. Ferrer would need Verdasco to make the final or Youzhny to win. Considering Verdasco's form lately and Youzhny's back injury, I think the top 8 players are safe bets. Youzhny would need to get through Roddick and Verdasco would need to get through Gael Monfils and Andy Murray. Melzer would need to get through Ferrer and Federer, the winners of both of last week's tournaments. But two years ago, Tsonga needed to win the tournament to make the finals, and he played the second-best tournament of his life to do it. So anything can happen.
Looking at the other players involved in the BNP Paribas Masters. The most interesting thing is Nadal's withdrawal from the tournament - I think it may be because the Spaniard wants to make a better showing at the year-end tournament, where he has never performed well. That's one of the few remaining holes in his resume, so he may be skipping Paris to be fresher for London. Or he could really be on the verge of ending his season, which wouldn't shock me much either.
As a result, Federer is the top seed and favorite to win the tournament, since he's now on a nine match and two-tournament winning streak. As if that weren't enough, he has a pretty clear path to the semifinals. He opens against either Mahut or Gasquet, followed by Nicolas Almagro and then either Melzer or Ferrer. There's nobody in that quarter than can bother Federer, these days.
But his potential semifinal opponent, Andy Murray, has beaten him in two of their three meetings, this year. The Scot has an interesting draw, finding David Nalbandian or Marcel Granollers in his second-round match. Of course, he trounced Nalbandian earlier this year, so that may not be as exciting as it looks at first glance. After that, he could get either Cilic or one of two Ukrainian players. In the quarters, he'll probably have Verdasco or Monfils, who is now the top Frenchman in the tournament with Tsonga's injury-induced withdrawal.
The third quarter is an interesting one - Andy Roddick has the most to play for in the quarter, for sure. He'll open against either Xavier Malisse or a hot Jarkko Nieminen, and then he'll have either Gulbis or Youzhny, which is going to be a big match for two potential players in London. The other half of that quarter has Robin Soderling and Ivan Ljubicic, as well as Stan Wawrinka and Gilles Simon. You have to favor Soderling to come through, but there aren't really any weak spots there. Roddick has won both of their matches so far this year, so he can't be too upset about his draw.
Roddick also has to like that his most likely semifinal opponent is Novak Djokovic, against whom Roddick has played exceptionally well lately. Djokovic has another tough quarter, since it has Berdych, Isner, and Davydenko in it. In addition, Djokovic has to play either Monaco or Sam Querrey in his first round. Isner could open against Llodra - the pair played an epic match two weeks ago in Montpellier. The third round match between Berdych and Davydenko will be a big one for both players, assuming Davydenko can get past either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber.
There's still lots of action left in this last week of the regular season.
Showing posts with label ferrer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ferrer. Show all posts
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Week 44 Semifinals
We're through to the final four in both of the ATP tournaments taking place this week, and there are some very appetizing match-ups. Quarterfinals day was maybe lacking some of the excitement that it looked like it might have had, but there was still some amazing tennis on display.
Out of the eight matches taking place today, only two were not won in straight sets. Argentine Juan Monaco faltered against Lucky Loser Marcel Granollers, who continues his campaign as one of the two remaining Spaniards in Valencia. That's a big win for Granollers, who was 17-20 on the year coming into this tournament. Unfortunately, I don't think he can pull of that magic again in the semis, as he faces Gilles Simon, who ousted Nikolay Davydenko in three - though it should have only taken two. Davydenko played brilliantly for intervals, but then he would completely lose his way. In the end, Simon was just too steady.
The other semifinal may not go terribly well for the other remaining Spaniard, David Ferrer, who is rewarded for his straight sets defeat of Andreas Seppi with the dominant player of the tournament thus far, Robin Soderling, who ousted Gael Monfils as if it were no small feat. It was strong play from Soderling, but honestly, Monfils didn't really show up for this match, which is a shame. Having just won a tournament last week and summarily dismissed Stanislas Wawrinka in the previous round, I was hopeful that Monfils had reached a new level in his career, but the quality of his play dropped precipitously in the quarterfinals. I expect Ferrer will be a sterner test for the Swede, but Soderling leads their head-head 8-3, including winning 3 out of 4 matches played this year.
Ferrer is in a tricky situation, which is that he needs to accumulate points to cement his place in the year-end-championships, but he doesn't want to exhaust himself before next week's tournament in Paris, where there are even more points on offer. A loss here wouldn't be the end of the world. Another player who is in the exact same boat is Andy Roddick, who wishes he was merely 3-8 against his semifinal opponent. But no, the American faces off against his greatest nemesis and hometown hero Roger Federer, against whom Roddick is a dismal 2-19. This is their first meeting since the epic Wimbledon final in July of 2009, and also the site of their very first meeting way back in 2001. Federer won that one in a third set tiebreak, and it may be a similar result tomorrow. A win for Roddick would be huge, but a loss isn't going to hurt his spirit too much - he came into this week without any serious expectations, considering his layoff, and he has played some great tennis. If he gets an extra day to get to France for the Paris Masters and get himself ready for that tournament, that's just fine. And really, it's tough to bet on the guy with a 2-19 record.
The final semi features a rematch of one of the most significant early round matches at the U.S. Open - Serb Novak Djokovic played his junior countryman Viktor Troicki and looked out of it in the very first round, down a break in a decisive set, and with a point to go down a double break. Djokovic managed to claw his way back to win the match and ultimately go on to beat Federer in the semis and make the final. Since then, Troicki won the first tournament of his career. Djokovic, of course, is trying to defend the title he won here last year. I expect that Novak will win this one, but it could be tricky, if Troicki brings his best stuff to the court.
Despite all the other matches going on tomorrow, the biggest question of the day will be whether Roddick can maybe pull of that magical upset and get another notch on his belt against Federer. It's not a decisive match for either player in terms of career trajectories, but a win would be a huge boost for Andy. For Federer, it probably won't affect him too much either way, and Roddick won't be surprised if he comes up second best. But a win could Roddick all kinds of momentum heading into the year's final weeks. After a very up-and-down year, it would be great to end on a high note.
Out of the eight matches taking place today, only two were not won in straight sets. Argentine Juan Monaco faltered against Lucky Loser Marcel Granollers, who continues his campaign as one of the two remaining Spaniards in Valencia. That's a big win for Granollers, who was 17-20 on the year coming into this tournament. Unfortunately, I don't think he can pull of that magic again in the semis, as he faces Gilles Simon, who ousted Nikolay Davydenko in three - though it should have only taken two. Davydenko played brilliantly for intervals, but then he would completely lose his way. In the end, Simon was just too steady.
The other semifinal may not go terribly well for the other remaining Spaniard, David Ferrer, who is rewarded for his straight sets defeat of Andreas Seppi with the dominant player of the tournament thus far, Robin Soderling, who ousted Gael Monfils as if it were no small feat. It was strong play from Soderling, but honestly, Monfils didn't really show up for this match, which is a shame. Having just won a tournament last week and summarily dismissed Stanislas Wawrinka in the previous round, I was hopeful that Monfils had reached a new level in his career, but the quality of his play dropped precipitously in the quarterfinals. I expect Ferrer will be a sterner test for the Swede, but Soderling leads their head-head 8-3, including winning 3 out of 4 matches played this year.
Ferrer is in a tricky situation, which is that he needs to accumulate points to cement his place in the year-end-championships, but he doesn't want to exhaust himself before next week's tournament in Paris, where there are even more points on offer. A loss here wouldn't be the end of the world. Another player who is in the exact same boat is Andy Roddick, who wishes he was merely 3-8 against his semifinal opponent. But no, the American faces off against his greatest nemesis and hometown hero Roger Federer, against whom Roddick is a dismal 2-19. This is their first meeting since the epic Wimbledon final in July of 2009, and also the site of their very first meeting way back in 2001. Federer won that one in a third set tiebreak, and it may be a similar result tomorrow. A win for Roddick would be huge, but a loss isn't going to hurt his spirit too much - he came into this week without any serious expectations, considering his layoff, and he has played some great tennis. If he gets an extra day to get to France for the Paris Masters and get himself ready for that tournament, that's just fine. And really, it's tough to bet on the guy with a 2-19 record.
The final semi features a rematch of one of the most significant early round matches at the U.S. Open - Serb Novak Djokovic played his junior countryman Viktor Troicki and looked out of it in the very first round, down a break in a decisive set, and with a point to go down a double break. Djokovic managed to claw his way back to win the match and ultimately go on to beat Federer in the semis and make the final. Since then, Troicki won the first tournament of his career. Djokovic, of course, is trying to defend the title he won here last year. I expect that Novak will win this one, but it could be tricky, if Troicki brings his best stuff to the court.
Despite all the other matches going on tomorrow, the biggest question of the day will be whether Roddick can maybe pull of that magical upset and get another notch on his belt against Federer. It's not a decisive match for either player in terms of career trajectories, but a win would be a huge boost for Andy. For Federer, it probably won't affect him too much either way, and Roddick won't be surprised if he comes up second best. But a win could Roddick all kinds of momentum heading into the year's final weeks. After a very up-and-down year, it would be great to end on a high note.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Madrid Semifinals
We're up to the Madrid semifinals. It looks like order is pretty close to being restored. Both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are both in the semifinals of a tournament for the first time this year since Doha. We almost had another one of the top four in there as well, but Andy Murray fell to David Ferrer. In Spain's clay-court Masters event, there are three Spaniards and Roger Federer in the semifinals. So really, this is perhaps the least crazy Masters event we've had yet this year.
Honestly, it will be a surprise if we don't have a rematch of the Federer-Nadal final from last year on Sunday. Almagro came out of a weak quarter and hasn't had to face anyone close to the level of Nadal up to this point. And Federer seems to be trying very hard to find his form, and the Federer Express is 9-0 against Ferrer. He may have suffered a few first-time losses lately, but it's tough to see Ferrer coming through. He was pretty gritty against Gulbis, and had just enough of the right stuff to come away with the win. Ferrer was more solid against Murray, but the Scot wasn't hitting his shots. Ferrer will have to expect some tougher balls to handle tomorrow.
Nadal and Almagro each blew through their matches, so there isn't too much to say about them. That matchup looks a lot like the other semi, actually. Nadal is 5-0 against Almagro, and it's tough to see him losing that one. So we'll get our first Rafa-Fed face-off since exactly one year ago, on the eve of the French Open. It seems appropriate somehow, doesn't it?
Honestly, it will be a surprise if we don't have a rematch of the Federer-Nadal final from last year on Sunday. Almagro came out of a weak quarter and hasn't had to face anyone close to the level of Nadal up to this point. And Federer seems to be trying very hard to find his form, and the Federer Express is 9-0 against Ferrer. He may have suffered a few first-time losses lately, but it's tough to see Ferrer coming through. He was pretty gritty against Gulbis, and had just enough of the right stuff to come away with the win. Ferrer was more solid against Murray, but the Scot wasn't hitting his shots. Ferrer will have to expect some tougher balls to handle tomorrow.
Nadal and Almagro each blew through their matches, so there isn't too much to say about them. That matchup looks a lot like the other semi, actually. Nadal is 5-0 against Almagro, and it's tough to see him losing that one. So we'll get our first Rafa-Fed face-off since exactly one year ago, on the eve of the French Open. It seems appropriate somehow, doesn't it?
Friday, May 14, 2010
Madrid Quartefinals
Tomorrow we have the quarterfinals in the final clay-court Masters event of the year. It's a fairly strong lineup, but a few of the faces that one might have expected to find there are out, either due to injury or fatigue. But three of the four quarterfinal matches feature six players who have to be considered favorites to make the second week at Roland Garros.
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Madrid Third Round
In second round action in Madrid, there was really only one upset to speak of, and it wasn't even on the men's side! Serena Williams lost to Nadia Petrova, way out on court three. This is not a tremendous surprise, because Petrova started the year red hot, and may just now be getting her game back. But I also can't imagine that Serena was terribly excited about the situation, playing on court three as WTA world number one. Maybe she just wanted to head off to France and enjoy some more time off. At least, it was something that was on her mind. Her sister won, though.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Rome Final
Well, I was almost right about the semifinals yesterday. Verdasco was just too tired to play against Ferrer, and that was the big difference in their contest. Ferrer was too solid, but that's not to surprising. It was a tight first set, but Verdasco fell away in the second. Verdasco started strong, getting out to a 5-1 lead in the first set, but he went on to lose the next six games, which is just about as dispiriting as it can get. I don't know if either player was at their best, with eight total breaks of serve. One of the strongest indicators of Verdasco's physical and mental exhaustion was the way he served. His first serve percentage was almost 75% but he won only 56% of his first serve points. That's the way he served before 2009, when he worked on his fitness and drastically improved the power behind his serve. That was what pushed him into the top ten, but when he gets exhausted, it's no shock that he goes back to his old style. A spectacular couple of weeks for "Hot Sauce" and I hope he recovers in time for the next Masters event and the French Open.
The other match, though, didn't go quite as I predicted. Even though the end result was the one that I expected, Ernests Gulbis played really strong tennis for the majority of the match, and Nadal's level was the lowest it had been since the beginning of the clay season. These two facts may have been related. In any case, this was a great match - one of the best ones on clay yet this year. Nadal broke twice, in the first game of the match and the last one. In both, Gulbis was a bit mentally unsteady. He came out shaky on serve, and in the last game he clearly felt the pressure of serving to stay in the match, and as a result he rushed himself.
Aside from those two games, Gulbis served brilliantly. He hit 14 aces, got 77% of his first serves in, and won 73% of those points. He was smacking his forehand from every part of the court, and he was keeping Nadal pinned back so far that it allowed to hit some great drop shot winners. Unfortunately, he misfired on three in the last two games, which ended up costing him the match. Up until 4-5 in the third set, Gulbis had won two more points than Nadal over the course of the match. Now, all credit to Gulbis for playing the kind of tennis that can trouble Nadal, but he wasn't at his best. Nadal knew he was not up to his usual level, but he's a perfectionist. Still, even Gulbis said that he was expecting a higher level from Nadal. Particularly after a loss, that's not something a player usually says about his opponent. We all know that Nadal could have played better, but a win is a win.
Even if he plays only as well as he did against Gulbis, Nadal should win against Ferrer in the final. But I don't think he'll be quite as subdued in his level of play tomorrow. First of all, Ferrer lacks the firepower that Gulbis does, and Nadal has much more trouble dealing with good attack than he does with good defense, which is mostly what Ferrer has to offer. The only chance that Ferrer has if that Nadal's performance today was not a minor dip, but rather an indication of some more serious problem. I don't think that's terribly likely.
The other match, though, didn't go quite as I predicted. Even though the end result was the one that I expected, Ernests Gulbis played really strong tennis for the majority of the match, and Nadal's level was the lowest it had been since the beginning of the clay season. These two facts may have been related. In any case, this was a great match - one of the best ones on clay yet this year. Nadal broke twice, in the first game of the match and the last one. In both, Gulbis was a bit mentally unsteady. He came out shaky on serve, and in the last game he clearly felt the pressure of serving to stay in the match, and as a result he rushed himself.
Aside from those two games, Gulbis served brilliantly. He hit 14 aces, got 77% of his first serves in, and won 73% of those points. He was smacking his forehand from every part of the court, and he was keeping Nadal pinned back so far that it allowed to hit some great drop shot winners. Unfortunately, he misfired on three in the last two games, which ended up costing him the match. Up until 4-5 in the third set, Gulbis had won two more points than Nadal over the course of the match. Now, all credit to Gulbis for playing the kind of tennis that can trouble Nadal, but he wasn't at his best. Nadal knew he was not up to his usual level, but he's a perfectionist. Still, even Gulbis said that he was expecting a higher level from Nadal. Particularly after a loss, that's not something a player usually says about his opponent. We all know that Nadal could have played better, but a win is a win.
Even if he plays only as well as he did against Gulbis, Nadal should win against Ferrer in the final. But I don't think he'll be quite as subdued in his level of play tomorrow. First of all, Ferrer lacks the firepower that Gulbis does, and Nadal has much more trouble dealing with good attack than he does with good defense, which is mostly what Ferrer has to offer. The only chance that Ferrer has if that Nadal's performance today was not a minor dip, but rather an indication of some more serious problem. I don't think that's terribly likely.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Rome Semifinals
Down to four in Rome, and we could have had a Spanish rout. The first two matches of the day features upsets from Spanish players. Ferrer was just too solid for JW Tsonga, who will probably admit that clay is not his favorite surface. Ferrer, on the other hand, thrives on the stuff. So it wasn't a big surprise when Ferrer won a tight first set and then ran away with the second, delivering the first 6-1 set of the day.
Earlier, Verdasco and Djokovic had battled on for three sets, in the oddly-placed first match of the day. I'm not sure why they were first out, a position that nobody really relishes, because that was the highest-octane match-up. And it proved to be the tightest match of the day as well. Verdasco came out on top, as Djokovic just made too many errors, in the end. The top players (except for Nadal) are continuing to struggle, while Verdasco is now the hottest guy on tour.
Speaking of Nadal, his opponent came out playing the best I have ever seen him play. Wawrinka was an absolute revelation for the first nine games of the match. Up until 5-4 in the first set, Wawrinka had won two more points than Nadal despite having served only four games to Nadal's five. He had won 12 points on Nadal's serve and only given up one on his own. His whip-like backhand was cracking, and he looked like he really could challenge the king of clay. But when the pressure got to him, when he was serving to stay in the set at 4-5, Nadal upped his game and Wawrinka's dropped just enough. He broke, and the set was over. From there, the Swiss #2's spirit was broken. How can you play at your absolute highest level for that long and come away losing a set 6-4? He was never in the rest of the match, losing the second set 6-1, just like Tsonga.
The night match was an odd choice, but I think I may understand why. Ernests Gulbis and Feliciano Lopez had the least star power of any of the quarterfinals, but I think people are speculating that Gulbis might be the real deal. That this guy is bound for the top ten, and possibly Grand Slam glory. He may just do it, if he can play the way he's played this week - maybe if he leaves behind his strategy of choking on big points, though. He beat Lopez in a tight first set, then breezed through the second, in a pattern that was pretty familiar at this point. He won the third 6-1, as well.
I've always liked Gulbis for his game, but I am starting to really like his personality. He is honest in his interviews in a way that very few tennis players can manage to be, and he has a magnificent sense of humor. He reminds me a bit of Andy Roddick in that regard. After beating Federer, he was asked how he felt during his multiple match points. A normal tennis player might have said that he was nervous, that he felt tight, or that he was feeling the pressure, but Gulbis said he was "shitting his pants." Today, he had a set point in the first set that he duffed on an easy overhand. Asked about that after the match, he said, "If I miss that overhead and lose the set, I'm quitting tennis, because I just can't handle it." (I may be paraphrasing, but I think I got the gist of it)
But my favorite quote of his this week comes from a question he got about his sophomore slump. In his second year on tour after his quarterfinal at the French Open and semifinal run in Cincinatti in 2008, Gulbis accomplished approximately nothing on court. He flew around the world, partied a lot, and play some mediocre-to-horrible tennis. But when he was asked if he thought he wasted that time, he had this to say: "Sorry, I don’t agree. I have had a good life. I’m a young guy and I didn’t waste it. Maybe tennis-wise but tennis isn’t everything in life. It’s not all my life…… I was living more experiences, even bad experiences in the end are good. I know what I don’t need to do – to not succeed! I know how to do that perfectly! If you need some tips on how to not succeed…! Now I’m a little bit smarter and I think I’m doing better.”
I think this guy's stock is going straight up. If he really is focused on the game now, there's no telling how good he could get. And if he can settle down in the pressure situations and stop shitting his pants, I see no reason for him to be at the level of a Murray, Djokovic, or Del Potro. But he's a better interview than all of this guys, and good personalities are good for the sport.
That said, he is going to get absolutely murdered by Nadal tomorrow. Nadal isn't so far removed from being the wunderkind to forget what that's like, but he is far enough away to want to make sure everyone knows he's still the one that people should be worried about. If Gulbis even wins more than 5 games in tomorrow's match, I think that will really be an indication of his potential, but there's no way he's pulling off an upset.
The other semifinal between David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco depends primarily on one factor: whether or not Verdasco is starting to get tired. He's played so many matches in the last couple of weeks that - at some point - he's bound to get jaded. But he beat Ferrer just about two weeks ago, in a very tight match. This one could go either way, but I expect that the final result will rest on whether or not Verdasco is at 100%. In either case, I don't expect either of them to trouble Nadal. Maybe they'll get more than a game, though. Nadal hasn't been quite at the level he was during the Monte Carlo final this week. That said, he's been plenty strong to blow through his competition.
Earlier, Verdasco and Djokovic had battled on for three sets, in the oddly-placed first match of the day. I'm not sure why they were first out, a position that nobody really relishes, because that was the highest-octane match-up. And it proved to be the tightest match of the day as well. Verdasco came out on top, as Djokovic just made too many errors, in the end. The top players (except for Nadal) are continuing to struggle, while Verdasco is now the hottest guy on tour.
Speaking of Nadal, his opponent came out playing the best I have ever seen him play. Wawrinka was an absolute revelation for the first nine games of the match. Up until 5-4 in the first set, Wawrinka had won two more points than Nadal despite having served only four games to Nadal's five. He had won 12 points on Nadal's serve and only given up one on his own. His whip-like backhand was cracking, and he looked like he really could challenge the king of clay. But when the pressure got to him, when he was serving to stay in the set at 4-5, Nadal upped his game and Wawrinka's dropped just enough. He broke, and the set was over. From there, the Swiss #2's spirit was broken. How can you play at your absolute highest level for that long and come away losing a set 6-4? He was never in the rest of the match, losing the second set 6-1, just like Tsonga.
The night match was an odd choice, but I think I may understand why. Ernests Gulbis and Feliciano Lopez had the least star power of any of the quarterfinals, but I think people are speculating that Gulbis might be the real deal. That this guy is bound for the top ten, and possibly Grand Slam glory. He may just do it, if he can play the way he's played this week - maybe if he leaves behind his strategy of choking on big points, though. He beat Lopez in a tight first set, then breezed through the second, in a pattern that was pretty familiar at this point. He won the third 6-1, as well.
I've always liked Gulbis for his game, but I am starting to really like his personality. He is honest in his interviews in a way that very few tennis players can manage to be, and he has a magnificent sense of humor. He reminds me a bit of Andy Roddick in that regard. After beating Federer, he was asked how he felt during his multiple match points. A normal tennis player might have said that he was nervous, that he felt tight, or that he was feeling the pressure, but Gulbis said he was "shitting his pants." Today, he had a set point in the first set that he duffed on an easy overhand. Asked about that after the match, he said, "If I miss that overhead and lose the set, I'm quitting tennis, because I just can't handle it." (I may be paraphrasing, but I think I got the gist of it)
But my favorite quote of his this week comes from a question he got about his sophomore slump. In his second year on tour after his quarterfinal at the French Open and semifinal run in Cincinatti in 2008, Gulbis accomplished approximately nothing on court. He flew around the world, partied a lot, and play some mediocre-to-horrible tennis. But when he was asked if he thought he wasted that time, he had this to say: "Sorry, I don’t agree. I have had a good life. I’m a young guy and I didn’t waste it. Maybe tennis-wise but tennis isn’t everything in life. It’s not all my life…… I was living more experiences, even bad experiences in the end are good. I know what I don’t need to do – to not succeed! I know how to do that perfectly! If you need some tips on how to not succeed…! Now I’m a little bit smarter and I think I’m doing better.”
I think this guy's stock is going straight up. If he really is focused on the game now, there's no telling how good he could get. And if he can settle down in the pressure situations and stop shitting his pants, I see no reason for him to be at the level of a Murray, Djokovic, or Del Potro. But he's a better interview than all of this guys, and good personalities are good for the sport.
That said, he is going to get absolutely murdered by Nadal tomorrow. Nadal isn't so far removed from being the wunderkind to forget what that's like, but he is far enough away to want to make sure everyone knows he's still the one that people should be worried about. If Gulbis even wins more than 5 games in tomorrow's match, I think that will really be an indication of his potential, but there's no way he's pulling off an upset.
The other semifinal between David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco depends primarily on one factor: whether or not Verdasco is starting to get tired. He's played so many matches in the last couple of weeks that - at some point - he's bound to get jaded. But he beat Ferrer just about two weeks ago, in a very tight match. This one could go either way, but I expect that the final result will rest on whether or not Verdasco is at 100%. In either case, I don't expect either of them to trouble Nadal. Maybe they'll get more than a game, though. Nadal hasn't been quite at the level he was during the Monte Carlo final this week. That said, he's been plenty strong to blow through his competition.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Barcelona Semifinals
In the quartefinals, I figured that there were three matches which could potentially have upsets. In the end, only one of them did, but it was an impressive upset. While Verdasco breezed past Gulbis and Ferrer had as little trouble with Bellucci as Soderling had with Schwank, Tsonga found himself in a real dogfight with Dutch youngster Thiemo De Bakker.
De Bakker has now had his first career top-ten victory against Tsonga, which is an impressive followup after beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last round. Tsonga was among the least accomplished clay court players that he could have faced at this stage, though. His next opponent will be last year's French Open finalist, Robin Soderling, who has yet to really break a sweat over the course of this tournament. It will be a tough ask for De Bakker to keep his tournament rolling at this stage, but he has a chance. You have to favor the Swede, but we could be looking at one of the future's big clay court players.
The other semifinal is much more of a toss-up, between two veteran Spaniards, who are no strangers to the red clay. Verdasco and Ferrer have met on tour eight times thus far, with Verdasco leading the head to head 5-3, and 5-2 on clay courts. He's also won the last two meetings, so the numbers seem to favor "Hot Sauce." The only stat seemingly in Ferrer's favor is that he beat Verdasco here in Barcelona in 2005. It could go either way, though, as Ferrer's career record on clay is more impressive than Verdasco's.
No matter what, this will be an exciting final on Sunday.
De Bakker has now had his first career top-ten victory against Tsonga, which is an impressive followup after beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last round. Tsonga was among the least accomplished clay court players that he could have faced at this stage, though. His next opponent will be last year's French Open finalist, Robin Soderling, who has yet to really break a sweat over the course of this tournament. It will be a tough ask for De Bakker to keep his tournament rolling at this stage, but he has a chance. You have to favor the Swede, but we could be looking at one of the future's big clay court players.
The other semifinal is much more of a toss-up, between two veteran Spaniards, who are no strangers to the red clay. Verdasco and Ferrer have met on tour eight times thus far, with Verdasco leading the head to head 5-3, and 5-2 on clay courts. He's also won the last two meetings, so the numbers seem to favor "Hot Sauce." The only stat seemingly in Ferrer's favor is that he beat Verdasco here in Barcelona in 2005. It could go either way, though, as Ferrer's career record on clay is more impressive than Verdasco's.
No matter what, this will be an exciting final on Sunday.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Barcelona Quarterfinals
We're down to the last eight in Barcelona, and the field looks almost the way you'd expect at this stage. With Nadal out of the draw, it's actually interesting to see who might make it through to the finish. There have been a handful of upsets, and the remaining match-ups are mostly good.
The only one that I think will probably be uneven is the only match-up featuring a real pretender. Second seed Robin Soderling faces Eduardo Schwank, who had a good win over Fabio Fognini in the first round, but then beat a hobbled Hewitt and lucky loser Ivan Navarro. Expect the Swede to do well in that match. Schwank is only a few weeks removed from being fined for failing to give his best effort against Juan Ignacio Chela in Houston, which doesn't help his chances here.
The other three matches could all be competitive. While everyone was expecting a rematch from last week between Tsonga and Ferrero, young Danish spoiler Thiemo De Bakker upset the player with the most wins on clay this year, winning the first and third sets of his match against Ferrero in tiebreaks. Big win for De Bakker. Against Tsonga, he'll also have a tough time, but this is his favorite surface, and he may be ready to make his move.
The other two matches both feature young guns against seasoned veterans, as well. Ernests Gulbis has had an easy road to the quarterfinals, as both of the seeds in his section were upset before Gulbis in turn beat their vanquishers. He now faces Fernando Verdasco. Gulbis is still trying to build off the momentum he should have gained by winning his first title in Del Ray Beach and to recapture the magic during his breakout run at the French Open two years ago. A deep run here could do the trick.
The last match-up is between two players who have already demonstrated their bona fides on the crushed brick. David Ferrer and Tomaz Bellucci are playing for what would have been Nadal's semifinal spot, so they know what a chance they've been given. Ferrer won their only meeting, earlier this year, and I favor him again, but Bellucci has a shot.
Everyone left in the draw knows that they dodged a freight train with Nadal's withdrawal, so expect everyone to be eager to take advantage of this unexpected chance to win a title. And everyone left has been hot. Of the eight players left in the draw, only Tsonga, Schwank, and De Bakker have not already won a title this year. So this is a tough field to get through.
The only one that I think will probably be uneven is the only match-up featuring a real pretender. Second seed Robin Soderling faces Eduardo Schwank, who had a good win over Fabio Fognini in the first round, but then beat a hobbled Hewitt and lucky loser Ivan Navarro. Expect the Swede to do well in that match. Schwank is only a few weeks removed from being fined for failing to give his best effort against Juan Ignacio Chela in Houston, which doesn't help his chances here.
The other three matches could all be competitive. While everyone was expecting a rematch from last week between Tsonga and Ferrero, young Danish spoiler Thiemo De Bakker upset the player with the most wins on clay this year, winning the first and third sets of his match against Ferrero in tiebreaks. Big win for De Bakker. Against Tsonga, he'll also have a tough time, but this is his favorite surface, and he may be ready to make his move.
The other two matches both feature young guns against seasoned veterans, as well. Ernests Gulbis has had an easy road to the quarterfinals, as both of the seeds in his section were upset before Gulbis in turn beat their vanquishers. He now faces Fernando Verdasco. Gulbis is still trying to build off the momentum he should have gained by winning his first title in Del Ray Beach and to recapture the magic during his breakout run at the French Open two years ago. A deep run here could do the trick.
The last match-up is between two players who have already demonstrated their bona fides on the crushed brick. David Ferrer and Tomaz Bellucci are playing for what would have been Nadal's semifinal spot, so they know what a chance they've been given. Ferrer won their only meeting, earlier this year, and I favor him again, but Bellucci has a shot.
Everyone left in the draw knows that they dodged a freight train with Nadal's withdrawal, so expect everyone to be eager to take advantage of this unexpected chance to win a title. And everyone left has been hot. Of the eight players left in the draw, only Tsonga, Schwank, and De Bakker have not already won a title this year. So this is a tough field to get through.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Monte Carlo Semifinals
It looks like the topsy-turvy world of tennis we saw in the first two Masters Series events of the year may have calmed down somewhat. The final four standing in the first Masters tournament played on clay feature four very familiar faces, and four of the best clay-court players on tour. Fernando Verdasco is actually the weakest of the players remaining, since his game is a big more situated towards hard courts to the detriment of his clay court prowess. The other three have all had good results on hard courts, but their games are at their best when they're on red clay.
Verdasco faces Novak Djokovic, who is looking to pick up his clay-court season where he left it in 2009, before his amazing semifinal loss to Nadal at Rome. After that, which was one of the best matches of the year, he was hung over at Roland Garros and didn't play up to his potential. Prior to that, he had been the second-best clay court player on tour, after Nadal. So far, he's been playing very strong tennis, winning both of his matches on clay against the U.S. in Davis Cup, and yet to drop a set here in Monte Carlo, despite some tough opposition. You have to favor Djokovic in this match, as I believe he has both better shotmaking and a better chance to be solid from the baseline.
The other semifinal features David Ferrer facing off against Rafael Nadal, which will probably be even more one-sided. Verdasco and Ferrer are fine players, top-ten quality guys, no doubt. But they're playing against the two best guys on tour on this surface, and Ferrer in particular is facing the best player ever on clay. So it's a really tough ask to beat him. Nadal has only lost 16 matches on clay in his career, and that's against 181 wins and 25 titles. That's just mind-boggling.
It's almost a certainty that Nadal will face Djokovic in the final at this point, and that's an appetizing matchup, after the battles they had last year. Ferrer and Verdasco are out to spoil the party, but I don't give either of them a huge chance to do so. After some crazy and unexpected results in Miami and Indian Wells, it's maybe a nice thing to have the top two seeds meet in the final, here. But we'll just have to wait and see.
Verdasco faces Novak Djokovic, who is looking to pick up his clay-court season where he left it in 2009, before his amazing semifinal loss to Nadal at Rome. After that, which was one of the best matches of the year, he was hung over at Roland Garros and didn't play up to his potential. Prior to that, he had been the second-best clay court player on tour, after Nadal. So far, he's been playing very strong tennis, winning both of his matches on clay against the U.S. in Davis Cup, and yet to drop a set here in Monte Carlo, despite some tough opposition. You have to favor Djokovic in this match, as I believe he has both better shotmaking and a better chance to be solid from the baseline.
The other semifinal features David Ferrer facing off against Rafael Nadal, which will probably be even more one-sided. Verdasco and Ferrer are fine players, top-ten quality guys, no doubt. But they're playing against the two best guys on tour on this surface, and Ferrer in particular is facing the best player ever on clay. So it's a really tough ask to beat him. Nadal has only lost 16 matches on clay in his career, and that's against 181 wins and 25 titles. That's just mind-boggling.
It's almost a certainty that Nadal will face Djokovic in the final at this point, and that's an appetizing matchup, after the battles they had last year. Ferrer and Verdasco are out to spoil the party, but I don't give either of them a huge chance to do so. After some crazy and unexpected results in Miami and Indian Wells, it's maybe a nice thing to have the top two seeds meet in the final, here. But we'll just have to wait and see.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Monte Carlo Quarterfinals
There is no doubt that the clay season has at last begun in earnest; here we are at the last eight in Monte Carlo, and five of the players still standing are Spanish. They live on the red stuff, so you can hear the collective Spanish tennis nation suppressing their excitement at this early sign of what may be some serious dominance.
The only Spaniard who could have made it this far who lost today was Tommy Robredo, who lost a fairly routine match to David Nalbandian. Good for David, for following up his gutsy win over Mikhail Youzhny with a solid performance against an experienced clay-courter like Robredo. Nalbandian was just better on the big points, saving 6 out of Robredo's 7 break point chances. Don't expect Nalbandian's ranking to stay around 150 for very long - that's a promise. I expect him to be seeded by the U.S. Open. You heard it here first!
The only other non-Spanish players still in the draw are Novak Djokovic, who had a relatively easy time with Stan Wawrinka, and Phillip Kohlschreiber, who ousted his German compatriot Petzschner with even less difficulty and fanfare. For Kohlschreiber, it's great to reach a quarterfinal, but he just got lucky to find himself facing an addled Andy Murray and a pair of nobodies. His good run ends here, as tomorrow he'll face David Ferrer, and despite a close head to head - including a blowout win for the German on clay back in 2008 - I pick the bulldog here to win relatively easily. It was a nice run while it lasted, though.
Speaking of nice runs, Djokovic's opponent in the quarterfinals is David Nalbandian. As I mentioned above, Nalbandian's result has been great. Nobody's going to be surprised if he loses to the top seed at the tournament, but he is showing that he is still such a clean ball-striker and fluid mover that he has the capacity to beat anybody. If he can even make this match competitive, then there's no telling how well he can do this year. I still like Djokovic to get through it, though, but look for some spectacular ball-striking in this match from both sides.
The first all-Spanish quarterfinal features Fernando Verdasco and Albert Montanes. "Hot Sauce" is 3-0 against his lower-ranked opponent, and I think that streak continues through tomorrow. Not as much to say about this one.
On the other hand, the last quarterfinal is absolutely fascinating. The only two Monte Carlo titlists still playing the game face off in what is really disappointing to be happening this early in the tournament. Juan Carlos Ferrero has the most wins on clay of any player on tour so far this year. He already has a pair of titles on dirt since January, while Rafael Nadal's clay court pedigree needs no explanation. And in his first two matches, Nadal has lost 40 points. That's 40 points in 26 games. He's also lost 2 out of 26 games. That's not just good, that is terrifying.
This is an absolutely essential tournament for Nadal. He hasn't won a title since May 3 of last year. That's more than 11 months. It is his longest dry spell since winning his first title back way back in 2004. He has won Monte Carlo every year since 2005, and no one - no player in the open era - has won a tournament six years running. So he's gunning for history as well as trying to get his current game back on track, after a relatively poor year that saw him drop from the number two spot. If he can right the ship and win this title, then everyone will know that things will be back to normal. But if he doesn't... Nadal may never get back to the dominance he was capable of in the past few years.
It will be a huge ask for Ferrero to upset Nadal, considering how brutal, even cruel his first two victories were. But their last meeting (of 8) was a victory for Ferrero, and even on clay. But that may have been an anomaly. Nadal leads 6-2 in the overall head to head, and unless a different player shows up tomorrow than we saw yesterday or the day before, I don't see what Ferrero can do. He may have been the best player on clay so far this year, but Nadal is the best clay court player of all time, and he's looked like it so far this tournament.
The only Spaniard who could have made it this far who lost today was Tommy Robredo, who lost a fairly routine match to David Nalbandian. Good for David, for following up his gutsy win over Mikhail Youzhny with a solid performance against an experienced clay-courter like Robredo. Nalbandian was just better on the big points, saving 6 out of Robredo's 7 break point chances. Don't expect Nalbandian's ranking to stay around 150 for very long - that's a promise. I expect him to be seeded by the U.S. Open. You heard it here first!
The only other non-Spanish players still in the draw are Novak Djokovic, who had a relatively easy time with Stan Wawrinka, and Phillip Kohlschreiber, who ousted his German compatriot Petzschner with even less difficulty and fanfare. For Kohlschreiber, it's great to reach a quarterfinal, but he just got lucky to find himself facing an addled Andy Murray and a pair of nobodies. His good run ends here, as tomorrow he'll face David Ferrer, and despite a close head to head - including a blowout win for the German on clay back in 2008 - I pick the bulldog here to win relatively easily. It was a nice run while it lasted, though.
Speaking of nice runs, Djokovic's opponent in the quarterfinals is David Nalbandian. As I mentioned above, Nalbandian's result has been great. Nobody's going to be surprised if he loses to the top seed at the tournament, but he is showing that he is still such a clean ball-striker and fluid mover that he has the capacity to beat anybody. If he can even make this match competitive, then there's no telling how well he can do this year. I still like Djokovic to get through it, though, but look for some spectacular ball-striking in this match from both sides.
The first all-Spanish quarterfinal features Fernando Verdasco and Albert Montanes. "Hot Sauce" is 3-0 against his lower-ranked opponent, and I think that streak continues through tomorrow. Not as much to say about this one.
On the other hand, the last quarterfinal is absolutely fascinating. The only two Monte Carlo titlists still playing the game face off in what is really disappointing to be happening this early in the tournament. Juan Carlos Ferrero has the most wins on clay of any player on tour so far this year. He already has a pair of titles on dirt since January, while Rafael Nadal's clay court pedigree needs no explanation. And in his first two matches, Nadal has lost 40 points. That's 40 points in 26 games. He's also lost 2 out of 26 games. That's not just good, that is terrifying.
This is an absolutely essential tournament for Nadal. He hasn't won a title since May 3 of last year. That's more than 11 months. It is his longest dry spell since winning his first title back way back in 2004. He has won Monte Carlo every year since 2005, and no one - no player in the open era - has won a tournament six years running. So he's gunning for history as well as trying to get his current game back on track, after a relatively poor year that saw him drop from the number two spot. If he can right the ship and win this title, then everyone will know that things will be back to normal. But if he doesn't... Nadal may never get back to the dominance he was capable of in the past few years.
It will be a huge ask for Ferrero to upset Nadal, considering how brutal, even cruel his first two victories were. But their last meeting (of 8) was a victory for Ferrero, and even on clay. But that may have been an anomaly. Nadal leads 6-2 in the overall head to head, and unless a different player shows up tomorrow than we saw yesterday or the day before, I don't see what Ferrero can do. He may have been the best player on clay so far this year, but Nadal is the best clay court player of all time, and he's looked like it so far this tournament.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Monte Carlo Day 4
We're on to the third round in Monte Carlo, and all 16 remaining players are in action. You can tell that the draw here is not as strong as it had been at the last two Masters Series events, or as it will likely be at the majority of the Masters events later in the year. There are some big names there, but also a higher percentage of relatively middle-of-the-road talent to be making the last sixteen at a tournament of his stature.
Petzchner and Kohlschreiber, for example, is a match that nobody at the tournament is getting too excited about. Even the German contingent can't be too excited, as one of their players is going to have to lose. Kohlschreiber should be excited about his win over Andy Murray, but that didn't have too much to do with his play. Murray would have lost to just about anybody, yesterday. Still, he needs to take advantage of this chance to make a run.
The rest of the matches have at least one player who is top ten or at least former top ten, so there's more of interest elsewhere on the grounds. Marin Cilic faces a tough match against clay-court veteran Albert Montanes. Cilic is a better player, but Montanes has much more experience on this kind of surface, so that could work against him. It's a tough match for the young Croat, so we'll see how he can handle the pressure.
The other opening match is much more deserving of the situation, as Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych go up against each other, in a rematch of a quarterfinal from Miami. Berdych won that one in a tight match, but I think the Spaniard has the advantage on clay. This is match between two experienced and talented players, who had a recent, tight encounter. Could be one of tomorrow's better matches.
Nadal is up next on center court, and he got a cupcake of a second-round opponent. Michael Berrer is another German, but this is not the place for him. He's 5-12 on clay, so don't expect him to trouble Nadal. If Nadal plays even close to the way he played against De Bakker, he could win without even dropping that single game. The bookies have given Berrer 60:1 odds, which may actually be generous.
Ivan Ljubicic has his first real test tomorrow, against Spaniard David Ferrer. On any other surface, this would be a tight match, but the clay will slow down the Croat's serve and big groundstrokes, giving Ferrer more time to get to the balls. Ferrer has won the pair's last four meetings, and I expect he'll get the W tomorrow as well. Ljubicic just can't hit through another player here the way he did in Indian Wells.
There are a lot of Spaniards around the grounds, as you may have noticed. Tommy Robredo is another one, and he faces the comeback story of the tournament so far, David Nalbandian, who won a great match against Mikhail Youzhny in the last round. It's interesting, actually... the last two times this pair met was two and four years ago at this very tournament, in this very round. Robredo won in 2006 in a tight three-setter, and Nalbandian won in 2008 in dominant fashion. This is all in Nalbandian's hands, I would say. If he can hit the ball consistently and deep, Robredo just doesn't have the firepower to trouble him. But he's been off the court for so long, it's tough to stay solid for that long. This could be a good one, too.
Another Spaniard faces Frenchman JW Tsonga on center court after Nadal, as the only former champion in the field, Juan Carlos Ferrero, faces off against the big-hitting Frenchman. Despite the fact that his home Slam is on clay, Tsonga's game has always been better suited to the hardcourts of Australia or New York. Tsonga leads the head to head 2-0, but the pair has never played on clay, and Ferrero is the best claycourter of the year, thus far. Surprisingly, Tsonga's career record on clay is only 12-7. Just because of the surface, I may lean towards Ferrero, here. More of a toss-up than some other matches, though.
The last match of note is top seed Novak Djokovic against a great Swiss player - of course, I mean Stan "The Man" Wawrinka, who actually has the longest winning streak on tour, at the moment. He's coming off his first title in quite a few years, and riding quite a bit of confidence. Djokovic, despite looking solid in the first round, has every reason to be shaky. An upset here is unlikely, as Djokovic is 7-2 against Stan, and has won the last 6. But it could be tight, and Djokovic may not be able to keep his game together if he's challenged.
Petzchner and Kohlschreiber, for example, is a match that nobody at the tournament is getting too excited about. Even the German contingent can't be too excited, as one of their players is going to have to lose. Kohlschreiber should be excited about his win over Andy Murray, but that didn't have too much to do with his play. Murray would have lost to just about anybody, yesterday. Still, he needs to take advantage of this chance to make a run.
The rest of the matches have at least one player who is top ten or at least former top ten, so there's more of interest elsewhere on the grounds. Marin Cilic faces a tough match against clay-court veteran Albert Montanes. Cilic is a better player, but Montanes has much more experience on this kind of surface, so that could work against him. It's a tough match for the young Croat, so we'll see how he can handle the pressure.
The other opening match is much more deserving of the situation, as Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych go up against each other, in a rematch of a quarterfinal from Miami. Berdych won that one in a tight match, but I think the Spaniard has the advantage on clay. This is match between two experienced and talented players, who had a recent, tight encounter. Could be one of tomorrow's better matches.
Nadal is up next on center court, and he got a cupcake of a second-round opponent. Michael Berrer is another German, but this is not the place for him. He's 5-12 on clay, so don't expect him to trouble Nadal. If Nadal plays even close to the way he played against De Bakker, he could win without even dropping that single game. The bookies have given Berrer 60:1 odds, which may actually be generous.
Ivan Ljubicic has his first real test tomorrow, against Spaniard David Ferrer. On any other surface, this would be a tight match, but the clay will slow down the Croat's serve and big groundstrokes, giving Ferrer more time to get to the balls. Ferrer has won the pair's last four meetings, and I expect he'll get the W tomorrow as well. Ljubicic just can't hit through another player here the way he did in Indian Wells.
There are a lot of Spaniards around the grounds, as you may have noticed. Tommy Robredo is another one, and he faces the comeback story of the tournament so far, David Nalbandian, who won a great match against Mikhail Youzhny in the last round. It's interesting, actually... the last two times this pair met was two and four years ago at this very tournament, in this very round. Robredo won in 2006 in a tight three-setter, and Nalbandian won in 2008 in dominant fashion. This is all in Nalbandian's hands, I would say. If he can hit the ball consistently and deep, Robredo just doesn't have the firepower to trouble him. But he's been off the court for so long, it's tough to stay solid for that long. This could be a good one, too.
Another Spaniard faces Frenchman JW Tsonga on center court after Nadal, as the only former champion in the field, Juan Carlos Ferrero, faces off against the big-hitting Frenchman. Despite the fact that his home Slam is on clay, Tsonga's game has always been better suited to the hardcourts of Australia or New York. Tsonga leads the head to head 2-0, but the pair has never played on clay, and Ferrero is the best claycourter of the year, thus far. Surprisingly, Tsonga's career record on clay is only 12-7. Just because of the surface, I may lean towards Ferrero, here. More of a toss-up than some other matches, though.
The last match of note is top seed Novak Djokovic against a great Swiss player - of course, I mean Stan "The Man" Wawrinka, who actually has the longest winning streak on tour, at the moment. He's coming off his first title in quite a few years, and riding quite a bit of confidence. Djokovic, despite looking solid in the first round, has every reason to be shaky. An upset here is unlikely, as Djokovic is 7-2 against Stan, and has won the last 6. But it could be tight, and Djokovic may not be able to keep his game together if he's challenged.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Week 8 Review
With another week of tennis in the bag, we had one new titlist and a pair of matches that had just taken place a week before, with the results switched. This next week is a short week, with only Davis Cup taking place on the men's side, so I'll have some other things to talk about in the next few days. But first, to look back on the previous week.
The final in Acapulco was perhaps the most exciting, as it was a rematch of last week's final in Buenos Aires, which the elder Spaniard had won in three, despite a pretty bad head-to-head against his opponent. Ferrer was denied his first title since 2008 in Argentina, but he would not be denied again in Mexico, which would be his last chance on clay for a month. But ultimate, Ferrero was just too tired from having won 14 straight matches, and wilted in the third set to go down 1-6. After his run, Ferrero's ranking is up to 14, his highest since 2004. Both Spaniards should be excited for the European Clay Court swing in April.
In Dubai, we also had a repeat match in the final, with Youzhny against Djokovic. They had played in last week's semis in Rotterdam, with the Russian eking out a win in two tiebreak sets. He then went on to retire against Soderling in the final, so it may be surprising that he was able to make a sustained run to the finals again this week in Dubai. He didn't look like he was going to be able to mount the same kind of resistance though, going down a set and a break in short order before heavy rain began to fall and the match was delayed until the following day. He staged a comeback, winning the second set 7-5, but still lost in three. Youzhny is now 5-9 in career finals, while Djokovic is 17-11. It's pretty clear which record you would prefer. Both players should be eager for the upcoming pair of hard court Masters Series events.
But the most exciting final of the weekend was a first-time match-up between Ivo Karlovic (who turned 31 on the day of the match) in his first final since 2008, and Ernests Gulbis, in his first final since, well, ever. Gulbis, for those who don't know, has been a very highly-touted player for several years, with an enormous amount of talent but maybe not the dedication to win. This is not only his first title, but it's his first ATP final. Karlovic didn't play his best today, but Gulbis played the way people have thought he was capable for quite a while. He broke one of the best servers in the game five times in nine service games.
The question will be whether this was the first step in a real emergence, or whether it was a fluke, somewhat like his quarterfinal run at the French Open in 2008. He'll have a week to digest his victory and then see if he can make a dent at Indian Wells or Miami. But there's really no reason for him not to make it to the top 20.
This was also a good week for the Bryan brothers, who won their 600th match as a doubles pair and won the title in Del Ray. This should help them on their way to the Davis Cup match in Serbia, but unfortunately, their compatriots did not do terribly well in Mexico. Querrey and Isner failed to win a match, but at least that gave them plenty of time to get to the new courts and get used to the conditions. They can only hope that Djokovic will be a bit tired from winning the tournament.
I'll have a full Davis Cup preview before the thing starts up on Friday, and I hope to have some other things up in the meantime.
The final in Acapulco was perhaps the most exciting, as it was a rematch of last week's final in Buenos Aires, which the elder Spaniard had won in three, despite a pretty bad head-to-head against his opponent. Ferrer was denied his first title since 2008 in Argentina, but he would not be denied again in Mexico, which would be his last chance on clay for a month. But ultimate, Ferrero was just too tired from having won 14 straight matches, and wilted in the third set to go down 1-6. After his run, Ferrero's ranking is up to 14, his highest since 2004. Both Spaniards should be excited for the European Clay Court swing in April.
In Dubai, we also had a repeat match in the final, with Youzhny against Djokovic. They had played in last week's semis in Rotterdam, with the Russian eking out a win in two tiebreak sets. He then went on to retire against Soderling in the final, so it may be surprising that he was able to make a sustained run to the finals again this week in Dubai. He didn't look like he was going to be able to mount the same kind of resistance though, going down a set and a break in short order before heavy rain began to fall and the match was delayed until the following day. He staged a comeback, winning the second set 7-5, but still lost in three. Youzhny is now 5-9 in career finals, while Djokovic is 17-11. It's pretty clear which record you would prefer. Both players should be eager for the upcoming pair of hard court Masters Series events.
But the most exciting final of the weekend was a first-time match-up between Ivo Karlovic (who turned 31 on the day of the match) in his first final since 2008, and Ernests Gulbis, in his first final since, well, ever. Gulbis, for those who don't know, has been a very highly-touted player for several years, with an enormous amount of talent but maybe not the dedication to win. This is not only his first title, but it's his first ATP final. Karlovic didn't play his best today, but Gulbis played the way people have thought he was capable for quite a while. He broke one of the best servers in the game five times in nine service games.
The question will be whether this was the first step in a real emergence, or whether it was a fluke, somewhat like his quarterfinal run at the French Open in 2008. He'll have a week to digest his victory and then see if he can make a dent at Indian Wells or Miami. But there's really no reason for him not to make it to the top 20.
This was also a good week for the Bryan brothers, who won their 600th match as a doubles pair and won the title in Del Ray. This should help them on their way to the Davis Cup match in Serbia, but unfortunately, their compatriots did not do terribly well in Mexico. Querrey and Isner failed to win a match, but at least that gave them plenty of time to get to the new courts and get used to the conditions. They can only hope that Djokovic will be a bit tired from winning the tournament.
I'll have a full Davis Cup preview before the thing starts up on Friday, and I hope to have some other things up in the meantime.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Week 8 Mid-week Update
In two of the three tournaments going on this week, the majority of the top players have been upset. Not quite what the promoters were hoping for when only three or four seeds even make it to the quarterfinals, which was the case in both Dubai and Del Ray Beach.
In Dubai, which is probably the richest non-Masters Series event on tour, Novak Djokovic was the only top 10 player to make the semifinals. He barely did, dropping the first set in his quarterfinal match-up against Ivan Ljubicic and then squeaking out the second set before bulldozing his way through the third. Ljubicic had already beaten Tsonga, who appeared to be struggling with some injury problems. Davydenko was similarly hobbled, forced to retire against Michael Berrer with a bad left wrist.
Andy Murray had lost in the second round to an inspired Janko Tipsarevic, who then couldn't put it together the next day and lost to Youzhny in straight sets. Youzhny probably was expected to face Marin Cilic, one of the hottest players on tour, but he too was felled to Jurgen Melzer, who was having a spectacular day. The final quarterfinalist is Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Berrer in the quarters.
If Djokovic wasn't still in the tournament (and if he doesn't make it to the final) the organizers and tennis fans who paid to see the top tier of the game is going to be disappointed. He really should walk away with this one, though. Youzhny, Russia's number two, is looking like he's ready for an assault on the top ten once more. Good to see him back at the top of his game. And Baghdatis, too. Both of these guys were about four places lower in the rankings a year ago, so I'm glad to see them improving.
Things are also fairly topsy-turvy in Del Ray, although in this case I imagine that the organizers are pretty happy with the surprises left in the draw. With the weather, not so much. The week has been rain-soaked and it's been difficult to get in any continuous play, but at the quarterfinal stage, there are two Americans left, and that's something. Mardy Fish and James Blake are still standing, and they'll each have tough but winnable matches tomorrow. Fish goes up against Jeremy Chardy, who is a big hitter but has been having a terrible year, and Blake takes on Ivo Karlovic.
If the weather continues to be muggy, it should slow down Karlovic's serve and give Blake a better chance of blocking some returns back, and should also give him time to wind up on his forehand. In any case, this match will feature a ton of aces for the big man, because Blake goes for as much off the return as anyone, and ends up getting aced a lot. Except for their very first meeting, Karlovic has never hit fewer than 22 aces against Blake.
The top half of the draw features a handful of players who would each be lucky to make it to the final. Ernests Gulbis beat the player who knocked out top seed Tommy Haas, Benjamin Becker got a walkover from Wayne Odesnik, Leonardo won the battle of the Mayers against Florian, and Jarkko Nieminen absolutely ran away with the match after losing the first set to Evgeny Korolev. It's a pick-em, up here. Whoever can come out on top from this four will really get a boost, both in terms of ranking and momentum.
The only place where sanity seems to have reigned is in Acapulco, where all of the semifinalists are clay-court players that you might expect to see in this situation. Juan Monaco ousted top seed Fernando Verdasco, who despite being Spanish is not the greatest clay-courter around. Ferrero continued his ridiculous run, beating twice-defending champ Nicolas Almagro. His winning streak is now 13 matches long, which is by far the longest on tour at the moment. Monaco is a tough competitor, but unless Ferrero's 30-year old body is starting to get tired, it's not easy to see him beating this Spaniard, who is right at home on clay.
The bottom half of the draw has an equally appetizing semifinal, which features David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. It's a match-up of a big, big hitter and a big returner, so it'll be interesting to see if Gonzo can hit his spots better than Ferrer can run them down.
It's also worth noting that in Acapulco, defending champ and top seed Venus Williams recovered from from being down 5-3 in the third set against 25-year old Spanish qualifier Laura Pous Tio, who is ranked 399 in the world, to win the set and the match 7-5. Gutsy save from the elder Williams. After making it through that tough match, can she go on to defend her second title consecutively?
In Dubai, which is probably the richest non-Masters Series event on tour, Novak Djokovic was the only top 10 player to make the semifinals. He barely did, dropping the first set in his quarterfinal match-up against Ivan Ljubicic and then squeaking out the second set before bulldozing his way through the third. Ljubicic had already beaten Tsonga, who appeared to be struggling with some injury problems. Davydenko was similarly hobbled, forced to retire against Michael Berrer with a bad left wrist.
Andy Murray had lost in the second round to an inspired Janko Tipsarevic, who then couldn't put it together the next day and lost to Youzhny in straight sets. Youzhny probably was expected to face Marin Cilic, one of the hottest players on tour, but he too was felled to Jurgen Melzer, who was having a spectacular day. The final quarterfinalist is Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Berrer in the quarters.
If Djokovic wasn't still in the tournament (and if he doesn't make it to the final) the organizers and tennis fans who paid to see the top tier of the game is going to be disappointed. He really should walk away with this one, though. Youzhny, Russia's number two, is looking like he's ready for an assault on the top ten once more. Good to see him back at the top of his game. And Baghdatis, too. Both of these guys were about four places lower in the rankings a year ago, so I'm glad to see them improving.
Things are also fairly topsy-turvy in Del Ray, although in this case I imagine that the organizers are pretty happy with the surprises left in the draw. With the weather, not so much. The week has been rain-soaked and it's been difficult to get in any continuous play, but at the quarterfinal stage, there are two Americans left, and that's something. Mardy Fish and James Blake are still standing, and they'll each have tough but winnable matches tomorrow. Fish goes up against Jeremy Chardy, who is a big hitter but has been having a terrible year, and Blake takes on Ivo Karlovic.
If the weather continues to be muggy, it should slow down Karlovic's serve and give Blake a better chance of blocking some returns back, and should also give him time to wind up on his forehand. In any case, this match will feature a ton of aces for the big man, because Blake goes for as much off the return as anyone, and ends up getting aced a lot. Except for their very first meeting, Karlovic has never hit fewer than 22 aces against Blake.
The top half of the draw features a handful of players who would each be lucky to make it to the final. Ernests Gulbis beat the player who knocked out top seed Tommy Haas, Benjamin Becker got a walkover from Wayne Odesnik, Leonardo won the battle of the Mayers against Florian, and Jarkko Nieminen absolutely ran away with the match after losing the first set to Evgeny Korolev. It's a pick-em, up here. Whoever can come out on top from this four will really get a boost, both in terms of ranking and momentum.
The only place where sanity seems to have reigned is in Acapulco, where all of the semifinalists are clay-court players that you might expect to see in this situation. Juan Monaco ousted top seed Fernando Verdasco, who despite being Spanish is not the greatest clay-courter around. Ferrero continued his ridiculous run, beating twice-defending champ Nicolas Almagro. His winning streak is now 13 matches long, which is by far the longest on tour at the moment. Monaco is a tough competitor, but unless Ferrero's 30-year old body is starting to get tired, it's not easy to see him beating this Spaniard, who is right at home on clay.
The bottom half of the draw has an equally appetizing semifinal, which features David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. It's a match-up of a big, big hitter and a big returner, so it'll be interesting to see if Gonzo can hit his spots better than Ferrer can run them down.
It's also worth noting that in Acapulco, defending champ and top seed Venus Williams recovered from from being down 5-3 in the third set against 25-year old Spanish qualifier Laura Pous Tio, who is ranked 399 in the world, to win the set and the match 7-5. Gutsy save from the elder Williams. After making it through that tough match, can she go on to defend her second title consecutively?
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Week 7 Finals Preview
The finals are set for this week 7, and there's going to be at least one new title-winner this year. In France, they've got an all-countrymen final, but it doesn't feature any of the top three Frenchman in the draw, including Tsonga, Monfils, and Simon. But the French crowd should be pretty happy with their final between Benneteau (the eighth seed) and Llodra, who made the final here last year. This is Benneteau's fourth singles final, and he has yet to win one. Llodra lost this final last year, but he has three to his name. His last came in Rotterdam in 2008, where he had beaten Soderling in the final. Coincidentally, Soderling was Llodra's victim in the quarters here in Marseille.
I'm surprised that these two Frenchmen, both in their late twenties, have never played each other on tour before. They played in a futures tournament ten years ago which Llodra won, but it's tough to put much stock in that. Benneteau had the harder road, facing Monfils and Tsonga, while Llodra had to face the relatively minor foe Mischa Zverev in the semis. But Benneteau is the higher-ranked player here, and has been on better form so far this year. This is largely a pick-em, and I hope it will be a good match. It's been a good week for both players, as they are both also in the doubles final, playing together. It should be interesting for them to play that right after completing the singles.
In Buenos Aires, they've got the best match-up they could have hoped for in the final, once David Nalbandian withdrew from the tournament with injury before his quarterfinal against Albert Montanes. Ferrer then steamrolled a well-rested Montanes in the semis, after beating Igor Andreev that same morning, when matches had been pushed back due to rain. Really, that's an astounding performance from Ferrer, to play two-matches in one day, the second against a very well-rested opponent, and win it 6-1, 6-1. He'll be facing Juan Carlos Ferrero, last week's winner in Costa do Sauipe. The only set dropped by either of these players was by Ferrero, inexplicably, in the quarters against Santiago Ventura. The Ferrer-Ferrero rivalry, which is my second-favorite in the sport, name-wise, after Wozniak-Wozniacki, has been pretty one-sided. Ferrer is 5-1 against the older, more experienced Spaniard. Add to that the fact that last year, Ferrer was the highest-ranked player who did not win a title, and the "Bulldog" will be eager to notch his first tour win since the Netherlands in 2008.
An all-French final, an all-Spanish final, and in Memphis, an all-American final. Sam Querrey and John Isner, the two young guns of U.S. Tennis, will be facing here for the first time. They've had very different years up to this tournament, with the tall man winning his first title and going 8-1 to get here. On the other hand, Querrey was 3-4, and is just now getting his record above 500. Querrey is recovering from a pretty terrible arm injury that ended his season last year, so it's good for him to make the final here. While he was struggling to get his year kick-started, Isner was on fire, and ultimately replaced Querrey as the number 2 American behind Andy Roddick. This should also be an interesting match, as these two players are close, and will be playing together in the final after they play against each other in the singles, just like Benneteau and Llodra. I don't know of the last time that's happened twice in the same week, but it hasn't happened recently, to the best of my knowledge.
It's also worth mentioning that Venus Williams won her first title of the year in Dubai, which was also her first successful title defense since Wimbledon in 2007-2008. She beat Victoria Azarenka in the final, and did not drop a set en route to the title. Azarenka may have been the seed that she faced, but it was still an impressive run. Sharapova also won in Memphis without dropping a set, and never even played a tiebreak. She was taken to 7-5 only once, by Elena Baltacha. It's a great way to kick-start the year for both players.
The women's final in Bogata has not yet been decided, and it doesn't feature any big-name players like Sharapova or Venus. But it does have a 20-year old Colombian player named Mariana Duque Marino who may be making her first big splash on the tour level. She's won a bundle of lower-tier ITF titles, but has yet to make much noise at the top. She faces German Angelique Kerber, who is also going for her first overall WTA title. With the home crowd's support, Marino may have the advantage over another first-time finalist. But that's why you play the tennis.
I'm surprised that these two Frenchmen, both in their late twenties, have never played each other on tour before. They played in a futures tournament ten years ago which Llodra won, but it's tough to put much stock in that. Benneteau had the harder road, facing Monfils and Tsonga, while Llodra had to face the relatively minor foe Mischa Zverev in the semis. But Benneteau is the higher-ranked player here, and has been on better form so far this year. This is largely a pick-em, and I hope it will be a good match. It's been a good week for both players, as they are both also in the doubles final, playing together. It should be interesting for them to play that right after completing the singles.
In Buenos Aires, they've got the best match-up they could have hoped for in the final, once David Nalbandian withdrew from the tournament with injury before his quarterfinal against Albert Montanes. Ferrer then steamrolled a well-rested Montanes in the semis, after beating Igor Andreev that same morning, when matches had been pushed back due to rain. Really, that's an astounding performance from Ferrer, to play two-matches in one day, the second against a very well-rested opponent, and win it 6-1, 6-1. He'll be facing Juan Carlos Ferrero, last week's winner in Costa do Sauipe. The only set dropped by either of these players was by Ferrero, inexplicably, in the quarters against Santiago Ventura. The Ferrer-Ferrero rivalry, which is my second-favorite in the sport, name-wise, after Wozniak-Wozniacki, has been pretty one-sided. Ferrer is 5-1 against the older, more experienced Spaniard. Add to that the fact that last year, Ferrer was the highest-ranked player who did not win a title, and the "Bulldog" will be eager to notch his first tour win since the Netherlands in 2008.
An all-French final, an all-Spanish final, and in Memphis, an all-American final. Sam Querrey and John Isner, the two young guns of U.S. Tennis, will be facing here for the first time. They've had very different years up to this tournament, with the tall man winning his first title and going 8-1 to get here. On the other hand, Querrey was 3-4, and is just now getting his record above 500. Querrey is recovering from a pretty terrible arm injury that ended his season last year, so it's good for him to make the final here. While he was struggling to get his year kick-started, Isner was on fire, and ultimately replaced Querrey as the number 2 American behind Andy Roddick. This should also be an interesting match, as these two players are close, and will be playing together in the final after they play against each other in the singles, just like Benneteau and Llodra. I don't know of the last time that's happened twice in the same week, but it hasn't happened recently, to the best of my knowledge.
It's also worth mentioning that Venus Williams won her first title of the year in Dubai, which was also her first successful title defense since Wimbledon in 2007-2008. She beat Victoria Azarenka in the final, and did not drop a set en route to the title. Azarenka may have been the seed that she faced, but it was still an impressive run. Sharapova also won in Memphis without dropping a set, and never even played a tiebreak. She was taken to 7-5 only once, by Elena Baltacha. It's a great way to kick-start the year for both players.
The women's final in Bogata has not yet been decided, and it doesn't feature any big-name players like Sharapova or Venus. But it does have a 20-year old Colombian player named Mariana Duque Marino who may be making her first big splash on the tour level. She's won a bundle of lower-tier ITF titles, but has yet to make much noise at the top. She faces German Angelique Kerber, who is also going for her first overall WTA title. With the home crowd's support, Marino may have the advantage over another first-time finalist. But that's why you play the tennis.
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