With another week of tennis in the bag, we had one new titlist and a pair of matches that had just taken place a week before, with the results switched. This next week is a short week, with only Davis Cup taking place on the men's side, so I'll have some other things to talk about in the next few days. But first, to look back on the previous week.
The final in Acapulco was perhaps the most exciting, as it was a rematch of last week's final in Buenos Aires, which the elder Spaniard had won in three, despite a pretty bad head-to-head against his opponent. Ferrer was denied his first title since 2008 in Argentina, but he would not be denied again in Mexico, which would be his last chance on clay for a month. But ultimate, Ferrero was just too tired from having won 14 straight matches, and wilted in the third set to go down 1-6. After his run, Ferrero's ranking is up to 14, his highest since 2004. Both Spaniards should be excited for the European Clay Court swing in April.
In Dubai, we also had a repeat match in the final, with Youzhny against Djokovic. They had played in last week's semis in Rotterdam, with the Russian eking out a win in two tiebreak sets. He then went on to retire against Soderling in the final, so it may be surprising that he was able to make a sustained run to the finals again this week in Dubai. He didn't look like he was going to be able to mount the same kind of resistance though, going down a set and a break in short order before heavy rain began to fall and the match was delayed until the following day. He staged a comeback, winning the second set 7-5, but still lost in three. Youzhny is now 5-9 in career finals, while Djokovic is 17-11. It's pretty clear which record you would prefer. Both players should be eager for the upcoming pair of hard court Masters Series events.
But the most exciting final of the weekend was a first-time match-up between Ivo Karlovic (who turned 31 on the day of the match) in his first final since 2008, and Ernests Gulbis, in his first final since, well, ever. Gulbis, for those who don't know, has been a very highly-touted player for several years, with an enormous amount of talent but maybe not the dedication to win. This is not only his first title, but it's his first ATP final. Karlovic didn't play his best today, but Gulbis played the way people have thought he was capable for quite a while. He broke one of the best servers in the game five times in nine service games.
The question will be whether this was the first step in a real emergence, or whether it was a fluke, somewhat like his quarterfinal run at the French Open in 2008. He'll have a week to digest his victory and then see if he can make a dent at Indian Wells or Miami. But there's really no reason for him not to make it to the top 20.
This was also a good week for the Bryan brothers, who won their 600th match as a doubles pair and won the title in Del Ray. This should help them on their way to the Davis Cup match in Serbia, but unfortunately, their compatriots did not do terribly well in Mexico. Querrey and Isner failed to win a match, but at least that gave them plenty of time to get to the new courts and get used to the conditions. They can only hope that Djokovic will be a bit tired from winning the tournament.
I'll have a full Davis Cup preview before the thing starts up on Friday, and I hope to have some other things up in the meantime.
Showing posts with label karlovic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label karlovic. Show all posts
Monday, March 1, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
Week 8 Mid-week Update
In two of the three tournaments going on this week, the majority of the top players have been upset. Not quite what the promoters were hoping for when only three or four seeds even make it to the quarterfinals, which was the case in both Dubai and Del Ray Beach.
In Dubai, which is probably the richest non-Masters Series event on tour, Novak Djokovic was the only top 10 player to make the semifinals. He barely did, dropping the first set in his quarterfinal match-up against Ivan Ljubicic and then squeaking out the second set before bulldozing his way through the third. Ljubicic had already beaten Tsonga, who appeared to be struggling with some injury problems. Davydenko was similarly hobbled, forced to retire against Michael Berrer with a bad left wrist.
Andy Murray had lost in the second round to an inspired Janko Tipsarevic, who then couldn't put it together the next day and lost to Youzhny in straight sets. Youzhny probably was expected to face Marin Cilic, one of the hottest players on tour, but he too was felled to Jurgen Melzer, who was having a spectacular day. The final quarterfinalist is Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Berrer in the quarters.
If Djokovic wasn't still in the tournament (and if he doesn't make it to the final) the organizers and tennis fans who paid to see the top tier of the game is going to be disappointed. He really should walk away with this one, though. Youzhny, Russia's number two, is looking like he's ready for an assault on the top ten once more. Good to see him back at the top of his game. And Baghdatis, too. Both of these guys were about four places lower in the rankings a year ago, so I'm glad to see them improving.
Things are also fairly topsy-turvy in Del Ray, although in this case I imagine that the organizers are pretty happy with the surprises left in the draw. With the weather, not so much. The week has been rain-soaked and it's been difficult to get in any continuous play, but at the quarterfinal stage, there are two Americans left, and that's something. Mardy Fish and James Blake are still standing, and they'll each have tough but winnable matches tomorrow. Fish goes up against Jeremy Chardy, who is a big hitter but has been having a terrible year, and Blake takes on Ivo Karlovic.
If the weather continues to be muggy, it should slow down Karlovic's serve and give Blake a better chance of blocking some returns back, and should also give him time to wind up on his forehand. In any case, this match will feature a ton of aces for the big man, because Blake goes for as much off the return as anyone, and ends up getting aced a lot. Except for their very first meeting, Karlovic has never hit fewer than 22 aces against Blake.
The top half of the draw features a handful of players who would each be lucky to make it to the final. Ernests Gulbis beat the player who knocked out top seed Tommy Haas, Benjamin Becker got a walkover from Wayne Odesnik, Leonardo won the battle of the Mayers against Florian, and Jarkko Nieminen absolutely ran away with the match after losing the first set to Evgeny Korolev. It's a pick-em, up here. Whoever can come out on top from this four will really get a boost, both in terms of ranking and momentum.
The only place where sanity seems to have reigned is in Acapulco, where all of the semifinalists are clay-court players that you might expect to see in this situation. Juan Monaco ousted top seed Fernando Verdasco, who despite being Spanish is not the greatest clay-courter around. Ferrero continued his ridiculous run, beating twice-defending champ Nicolas Almagro. His winning streak is now 13 matches long, which is by far the longest on tour at the moment. Monaco is a tough competitor, but unless Ferrero's 30-year old body is starting to get tired, it's not easy to see him beating this Spaniard, who is right at home on clay.
The bottom half of the draw has an equally appetizing semifinal, which features David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. It's a match-up of a big, big hitter and a big returner, so it'll be interesting to see if Gonzo can hit his spots better than Ferrer can run them down.
It's also worth noting that in Acapulco, defending champ and top seed Venus Williams recovered from from being down 5-3 in the third set against 25-year old Spanish qualifier Laura Pous Tio, who is ranked 399 in the world, to win the set and the match 7-5. Gutsy save from the elder Williams. After making it through that tough match, can she go on to defend her second title consecutively?
In Dubai, which is probably the richest non-Masters Series event on tour, Novak Djokovic was the only top 10 player to make the semifinals. He barely did, dropping the first set in his quarterfinal match-up against Ivan Ljubicic and then squeaking out the second set before bulldozing his way through the third. Ljubicic had already beaten Tsonga, who appeared to be struggling with some injury problems. Davydenko was similarly hobbled, forced to retire against Michael Berrer with a bad left wrist.
Andy Murray had lost in the second round to an inspired Janko Tipsarevic, who then couldn't put it together the next day and lost to Youzhny in straight sets. Youzhny probably was expected to face Marin Cilic, one of the hottest players on tour, but he too was felled to Jurgen Melzer, who was having a spectacular day. The final quarterfinalist is Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Berrer in the quarters.
If Djokovic wasn't still in the tournament (and if he doesn't make it to the final) the organizers and tennis fans who paid to see the top tier of the game is going to be disappointed. He really should walk away with this one, though. Youzhny, Russia's number two, is looking like he's ready for an assault on the top ten once more. Good to see him back at the top of his game. And Baghdatis, too. Both of these guys were about four places lower in the rankings a year ago, so I'm glad to see them improving.
Things are also fairly topsy-turvy in Del Ray, although in this case I imagine that the organizers are pretty happy with the surprises left in the draw. With the weather, not so much. The week has been rain-soaked and it's been difficult to get in any continuous play, but at the quarterfinal stage, there are two Americans left, and that's something. Mardy Fish and James Blake are still standing, and they'll each have tough but winnable matches tomorrow. Fish goes up against Jeremy Chardy, who is a big hitter but has been having a terrible year, and Blake takes on Ivo Karlovic.
If the weather continues to be muggy, it should slow down Karlovic's serve and give Blake a better chance of blocking some returns back, and should also give him time to wind up on his forehand. In any case, this match will feature a ton of aces for the big man, because Blake goes for as much off the return as anyone, and ends up getting aced a lot. Except for their very first meeting, Karlovic has never hit fewer than 22 aces against Blake.
The top half of the draw features a handful of players who would each be lucky to make it to the final. Ernests Gulbis beat the player who knocked out top seed Tommy Haas, Benjamin Becker got a walkover from Wayne Odesnik, Leonardo won the battle of the Mayers against Florian, and Jarkko Nieminen absolutely ran away with the match after losing the first set to Evgeny Korolev. It's a pick-em, up here. Whoever can come out on top from this four will really get a boost, both in terms of ranking and momentum.
The only place where sanity seems to have reigned is in Acapulco, where all of the semifinalists are clay-court players that you might expect to see in this situation. Juan Monaco ousted top seed Fernando Verdasco, who despite being Spanish is not the greatest clay-courter around. Ferrero continued his ridiculous run, beating twice-defending champ Nicolas Almagro. His winning streak is now 13 matches long, which is by far the longest on tour at the moment. Monaco is a tough competitor, but unless Ferrero's 30-year old body is starting to get tired, it's not easy to see him beating this Spaniard, who is right at home on clay.
The bottom half of the draw has an equally appetizing semifinal, which features David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. It's a match-up of a big, big hitter and a big returner, so it'll be interesting to see if Gonzo can hit his spots better than Ferrer can run them down.
It's also worth noting that in Acapulco, defending champ and top seed Venus Williams recovered from from being down 5-3 in the third set against 25-year old Spanish qualifier Laura Pous Tio, who is ranked 399 in the world, to win the set and the match 7-5. Gutsy save from the elder Williams. After making it through that tough match, can she go on to defend her second title consecutively?
Monday, January 18, 2010
Matches to Watch - Day 2
Well, day one had its fair share of excitement, despite the weather in Melbourne not cooperating. The line-up wasn't completed on any court save for the two covered that had retractable roofs. There were some excellent matches though, and two seeded
players upset.
On the men's side, the upset was not a huge shock, as Radek Stepanek lost to Ivo Karlovic in five sets. It was revenge for the Davis Cup loss last year, so good for Dr. Ivo. It's a shame for Stepanek, who made the final in Brisbane in the lead-up to the Aussie Open. Another player on the men's side who had a good warm-up tournament was Mardy Fish, who took eventual champion Marcos Baghdatis to three tight sets. Fish lost to Andrey Golubev, ranked 131 in the world. It looked like a pretty sloppy match, with both players making at least 50 unforced errors. But Fish hit only 16 winners to Golubev's 44. It may have been the heavy conditions and the frequent rain delays, but Mardy has to be disappointed.
But I bet he's not as disappointed as Maria Sharapova, who lost to friend and fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko. In one of the longest women's matches in Australian Open history, it wasn't Sharapova's double faults that did her in, like at the US Open last year. Eleven is a lot of double faults, but it is half as many as Sharapova had in her loss to Melanie Oudin. It was Sharapova's 77 unforced errors that did it, and when they occurred. She actually won more points than Kirilenko, but she didn't win the ones she needed to.
Other seeds and favorites cruised - the ones that got to play their matches, anyway. In addition to the matches I made note of yesterday that haven't finished yet, here are some other matches to watch on Day 2.
Roger Federer v. Igor Andreev - This is among Federer's tougher first-round matchups at Grand Slams in recent years. Andreev is a big-hitter with one of the biggest forehands in the game. But he knows that's his biggest shot, and he'll go well out of his way to avoid hitting his backhand. Watch for Rajah to send most of his balls to that side, and then hit a ton of winners down the line when Andreev runs around his weaker shot to rip a forehand.
Fernando Verdasco v. Carsten Ball - It's tough to be an up-and-coming young player if you keep getting paired with unreasonably difficult first rounds. Carsten is poised for a breakthrough, but he won't be able to do it against last year's semifinalist and recent winner of the Kooyong exhibition. Verdasco is also a lefty with a big serve, so Ball won't have as much of an advantage as he usually does.
Richard Gasquet v. Mikhail Youzhny - Both of these players are grand slam semifinalists who aren't playing their best tennis at the moment. Both of them are extremely talented, with beautiful one-handed backhands, while both lack the mental fortitude of some of their more successful peers. While Gasquet has the edge in artistry and shot-making ability, Youzhny has more pace on his shots. It should be a good contest.
Christophe Rochus v. Donald Young - While Olivier's match against Fernando Gonzalez didn't turn out to be quite as tight as I thought it might be, the elder, taller, and less successful Rochus has a much better chance against the young American Young. But "the Donald" definitely wants to put his frustrations behind him, and he couldn't have gotten much better than the lesser Rochus brother. While these aren't the two greatest players to meet today, they should still be closely matched, so it could be a good match.
Barbara Zahlavova vs. Virginia Kulikova - A match set to finish from yesterday, these two relatively unknown Eastern Europeans (a Russian and a Czech) are at 4-3 in the third set, after the first two went to tiebreaks. The first breaker was 7-5 and the second was 12-10. Since there's no tiebreaker in the third set, this match could go on all day.
John Isner v. Andreas Seppi - Isner is riding high, having just won his first title, while Seppi is the very talented but easily frustrated Italian player who probably hasn't lived up to his talent. The only concern for Isner in this match is that he may be tired from the last week, but otherwise, he should ace his way past Seppi without a great of trouble.
Also watch for the Williams sisters in action. Serena's first grand slam match after her meltdown in New York should be interesting. I expect that the Australian fans will have (rightly) forgotten about that event, and welcome their defending champion back with open arms.
players upset.
On the men's side, the upset was not a huge shock, as Radek Stepanek lost to Ivo Karlovic in five sets. It was revenge for the Davis Cup loss last year, so good for Dr. Ivo. It's a shame for Stepanek, who made the final in Brisbane in the lead-up to the Aussie Open. Another player on the men's side who had a good warm-up tournament was Mardy Fish, who took eventual champion Marcos Baghdatis to three tight sets. Fish lost to Andrey Golubev, ranked 131 in the world. It looked like a pretty sloppy match, with both players making at least 50 unforced errors. But Fish hit only 16 winners to Golubev's 44. It may have been the heavy conditions and the frequent rain delays, but Mardy has to be disappointed.
But I bet he's not as disappointed as Maria Sharapova, who lost to friend and fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko. In one of the longest women's matches in Australian Open history, it wasn't Sharapova's double faults that did her in, like at the US Open last year. Eleven is a lot of double faults, but it is half as many as Sharapova had in her loss to Melanie Oudin. It was Sharapova's 77 unforced errors that did it, and when they occurred. She actually won more points than Kirilenko, but she didn't win the ones she needed to.
Other seeds and favorites cruised - the ones that got to play their matches, anyway. In addition to the matches I made note of yesterday that haven't finished yet, here are some other matches to watch on Day 2.
Roger Federer v. Igor Andreev - This is among Federer's tougher first-round matchups at Grand Slams in recent years. Andreev is a big-hitter with one of the biggest forehands in the game. But he knows that's his biggest shot, and he'll go well out of his way to avoid hitting his backhand. Watch for Rajah to send most of his balls to that side, and then hit a ton of winners down the line when Andreev runs around his weaker shot to rip a forehand.
Fernando Verdasco v. Carsten Ball - It's tough to be an up-and-coming young player if you keep getting paired with unreasonably difficult first rounds. Carsten is poised for a breakthrough, but he won't be able to do it against last year's semifinalist and recent winner of the Kooyong exhibition. Verdasco is also a lefty with a big serve, so Ball won't have as much of an advantage as he usually does.
Richard Gasquet v. Mikhail Youzhny - Both of these players are grand slam semifinalists who aren't playing their best tennis at the moment. Both of them are extremely talented, with beautiful one-handed backhands, while both lack the mental fortitude of some of their more successful peers. While Gasquet has the edge in artistry and shot-making ability, Youzhny has more pace on his shots. It should be a good contest.
Christophe Rochus v. Donald Young - While Olivier's match against Fernando Gonzalez didn't turn out to be quite as tight as I thought it might be, the elder, taller, and less successful Rochus has a much better chance against the young American Young. But "the Donald" definitely wants to put his frustrations behind him, and he couldn't have gotten much better than the lesser Rochus brother. While these aren't the two greatest players to meet today, they should still be closely matched, so it could be a good match.
Barbara Zahlavova vs. Virginia Kulikova - A match set to finish from yesterday, these two relatively unknown Eastern Europeans (a Russian and a Czech) are at 4-3 in the third set, after the first two went to tiebreaks. The first breaker was 7-5 and the second was 12-10. Since there's no tiebreaker in the third set, this match could go on all day.
John Isner v. Andreas Seppi - Isner is riding high, having just won his first title, while Seppi is the very talented but easily frustrated Italian player who probably hasn't lived up to his talent. The only concern for Isner in this match is that he may be tired from the last week, but otherwise, he should ace his way past Seppi without a great of trouble.
Also watch for the Williams sisters in action. Serena's first grand slam match after her meltdown in New York should be interesting. I expect that the Australian fans will have (rightly) forgotten about that event, and welcome their defending champion back with open arms.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Scheduling is a mess...
... when you've got tennis taking place in places that are ten hours apart. In my current time zone, the tennis in Auckland starts at around 6 PM, Brisbane starts at 6:30, Chennai starts at 6 AM, and Doha starts at 7. It's tough to figure out how to watch all of that and still find time to sleep! I'm glad I caught as much as I did yesterday, though.
Brisbane is where all the action is. Justine Henin's comeback continues, and she's into the semifinals, where she'll play Ana Ivanovic, which is definitely the dream match-up for the bottom half of the draw. Both players have been doing well, and even though she may be rusty, I'm inclined to give this one to Justine based on experience. She managed to pull out a tight one against Melinda Czink, squandering five (possible six) match points before winning in a third-set tiebreaker.
Another player who squeaked through in a third-set breaker was James Blake, who saved three match points against Marc Gicquel before winning 10-8. Blake played very well, and was a bit more patient than I'd seen him be in these types of tight matches. He was still blowing winners by Gicquel whenever he gets the chance, but he took the time to set up more points than I'm used to seeing. That's a positive for Blake. His first real test comes tonight, though, when he plays Frenchman Gael Monfils. I don't care how late it is, I'm staying up to watch it, since it's a match between two of the best shotmakers in the game. And Monfils has been struggling in his first two rounds, playing six sets and four tiebreaks.
Another high-quality match in Brisbane was Andy Roddick against Carsten Ball. Ball did not play like a challenger-regular whose ranking has never dipped inside the top hundred. For twelve games in the first set and then seven games in the second, there was very little to choose between these two players. However, Roddick showed his variety and his experience in the tiebreak, winning all seven points, and then breaking Ball in the second set before serving out the match. Despite the loss, it should be an encouraging performance for Carsten. No doubt we'll see the big-serving lefty again.
I have to say that the matches in the other three tournaments taking place this week haven't really been at the same level. Most of the players in Chennai and Doha cruised over the past few days, particularly the big three in Doha. However, two of them face their first challenge in the next round, potentially. Federer goes up against Ernests Gulbis, and Davydenko takes on Ivo Karlovic. I expect that both of them will come through those matches, but there's an outside chance of an upset in each.
There were a few matches that had the potential to be exciting, but then didn't deliver. After beating DeHeart in the first round, Younes El Aynaoui excited everyone about his potential to play Nadal, but his body just didn't hold up, and he was vanquished easily by Belgian qualifier Steve Darcis. In Chennai, local hopeful beat former top-ten player Rainer Schuettler in the first round, only to be shut down by Janko Tipsarevic 2 and 1.
American Wayne Odesnik looked to be challenging defending champ Radek Stepanek in Brisbane as well, breaking the wily Czech and serving for the first set. But Odesnik seemed to tweak something in his back, and from that point on, he was never in the match. Additionally, he seemed to repeatedly forget that Brisbane didn't have the hawkeye challenge system in play, and had to be reminded by the umpire twice.
As we move into the final rounds of this first week of the season, I have to wonder how I got by without tennis for two months.
Brisbane is where all the action is. Justine Henin's comeback continues, and she's into the semifinals, where she'll play Ana Ivanovic, which is definitely the dream match-up for the bottom half of the draw. Both players have been doing well, and even though she may be rusty, I'm inclined to give this one to Justine based on experience. She managed to pull out a tight one against Melinda Czink, squandering five (possible six) match points before winning in a third-set tiebreaker.
Another player who squeaked through in a third-set breaker was James Blake, who saved three match points against Marc Gicquel before winning 10-8. Blake played very well, and was a bit more patient than I'd seen him be in these types of tight matches. He was still blowing winners by Gicquel whenever he gets the chance, but he took the time to set up more points than I'm used to seeing. That's a positive for Blake. His first real test comes tonight, though, when he plays Frenchman Gael Monfils. I don't care how late it is, I'm staying up to watch it, since it's a match between two of the best shotmakers in the game. And Monfils has been struggling in his first two rounds, playing six sets and four tiebreaks.
Another high-quality match in Brisbane was Andy Roddick against Carsten Ball. Ball did not play like a challenger-regular whose ranking has never dipped inside the top hundred. For twelve games in the first set and then seven games in the second, there was very little to choose between these two players. However, Roddick showed his variety and his experience in the tiebreak, winning all seven points, and then breaking Ball in the second set before serving out the match. Despite the loss, it should be an encouraging performance for Carsten. No doubt we'll see the big-serving lefty again.
I have to say that the matches in the other three tournaments taking place this week haven't really been at the same level. Most of the players in Chennai and Doha cruised over the past few days, particularly the big three in Doha. However, two of them face their first challenge in the next round, potentially. Federer goes up against Ernests Gulbis, and Davydenko takes on Ivo Karlovic. I expect that both of them will come through those matches, but there's an outside chance of an upset in each.
There were a few matches that had the potential to be exciting, but then didn't deliver. After beating DeHeart in the first round, Younes El Aynaoui excited everyone about his potential to play Nadal, but his body just didn't hold up, and he was vanquished easily by Belgian qualifier Steve Darcis. In Chennai, local hopeful beat former top-ten player Rainer Schuettler in the first round, only to be shut down by Janko Tipsarevic 2 and 1.
American Wayne Odesnik looked to be challenging defending champ Radek Stepanek in Brisbane as well, breaking the wily Czech and serving for the first set. But Odesnik seemed to tweak something in his back, and from that point on, he was never in the match. Additionally, he seemed to repeatedly forget that Brisbane didn't have the hawkeye challenge system in play, and had to be reminded by the umpire twice.
As we move into the final rounds of this first week of the season, I have to wonder how I got by without tennis for two months.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
4th Round at Wimbledon 2009
The best day in Tennis: the rounds of 32 at the All-England Club. All of the remaining 64 men and women will be in action after a day off on the middle Sunday. Since the first week didn't present us with too many big upsets, we start off the business end of the tournament with some excellent matches.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
A bevy of upsets
The 2009 tennis season is well underway, and the narratives are already getting interesting. The biggest story of the day is Rafael Nadal losing to Gael Monfils, who won in straights, despite having never won a set off the ATP number one in their previous three meetings. I wondered if that meant Nadal wasn't in the best physical shape still, especially after he went out for his doubles match and lost the first set 6-1. But then he and his partner Marc Lopez (no relation to Feliciano, it seems) won the second set in a tie-break and then won the super tie-break 11-9. Tomorrow, Monfils plays Roddick, and Monfils has to be the favorite, coming off such a convincing victory.
The other Doha semifinal is the one I've been waiting for all week: Murray-Federer round seven! I wish it were being broadcast, because it promises to be a stellar match. Since Murray won their last two meetings, he probably has the edge, but since their last few matches have been incredibly tight affairs, it's not much of an edge. Federer wants this win really bad, I'm sure. It's more important to him than it is to Murray, just like the other semifinal is probably more important to Roddick than Monfils. Unfortunately, I'm picking both of them to lose.
In Chennai, there was a lot of catch-up play today. The most exciting story is that Karlovic (beating the other Ivo with no trouble) dodged a bullet when his likely next round opponent, Carlos Moya, lost to a wildcard Somdev Devvarman, currently ranked 202. I attribute this more to Moya's body not being able to hold up to his style of play, but it's always fun to see a local kid making the run of his life. Unfortunately, he's about to run into a brick wall - a wall that will pummel him with 138-mph serves over and over again.
Other than that, things are going about as one would expect in Chennai. Tomorrow, Tipsarevic is going to play Marin Cilic, which is definitely the most exciting match-up they have to offer. I predict that either the winner of that match or Ivo Karlovic is going to win the whole tournament.
In Brisbane, the two quarterfinals we had today went much as expected. Mathieu had too much experience for Nishikori, and Verdasco recovered from losing the first set to blow Serra off the court. By the way, have you seen his forehand? When it's firing on all cylinders, it's one of the best on tour. For tomorrow, we've got that enticing Tsonga-Gasquet match to look forward to, as well as a less-thrilling quarterfinal between Robin Soderling and Radek "the worm" Stepanek. I'll take Soderling in that match-up, but you never know with Stepanek. He's quite an enigma.
Also in Brisbane, Amelie Mauresmo really showed me by beating Ana Ivanovic in two pretty easy sets. It may be more that Amelie recovered from her tough three-setter the day before more quickly than her younger, Serbian opponent, but sometimes that's all it takes. Ana may need to work on her fitness. Mauresmo may be able to make something out of this year - that was her first win over a top 10 player since 2006, and that's a fine way to start out 2009. She plays Marion Bartoli next, who had no trouble with Tathiana Garbin, so we'll see how Mauresmo deals with a well-rested opponent.
The biggest match tomorrow - the biggest match of the whole week - is Murray v. Federer. I expect we'll see them play again this year, at more significant tournaments. Murray wants Federer to know that the next time they meet in a slam final, Federer can expect more resistance. And Federer wants everyone to know that he doesn't have mono this year. It should be great.
The other Doha semifinal is the one I've been waiting for all week: Murray-Federer round seven! I wish it were being broadcast, because it promises to be a stellar match. Since Murray won their last two meetings, he probably has the edge, but since their last few matches have been incredibly tight affairs, it's not much of an edge. Federer wants this win really bad, I'm sure. It's more important to him than it is to Murray, just like the other semifinal is probably more important to Roddick than Monfils. Unfortunately, I'm picking both of them to lose.
In Chennai, there was a lot of catch-up play today. The most exciting story is that Karlovic (beating the other Ivo with no trouble) dodged a bullet when his likely next round opponent, Carlos Moya, lost to a wildcard Somdev Devvarman, currently ranked 202. I attribute this more to Moya's body not being able to hold up to his style of play, but it's always fun to see a local kid making the run of his life. Unfortunately, he's about to run into a brick wall - a wall that will pummel him with 138-mph serves over and over again.
Other than that, things are going about as one would expect in Chennai. Tomorrow, Tipsarevic is going to play Marin Cilic, which is definitely the most exciting match-up they have to offer. I predict that either the winner of that match or Ivo Karlovic is going to win the whole tournament.
In Brisbane, the two quarterfinals we had today went much as expected. Mathieu had too much experience for Nishikori, and Verdasco recovered from losing the first set to blow Serra off the court. By the way, have you seen his forehand? When it's firing on all cylinders, it's one of the best on tour. For tomorrow, we've got that enticing Tsonga-Gasquet match to look forward to, as well as a less-thrilling quarterfinal between Robin Soderling and Radek "the worm" Stepanek. I'll take Soderling in that match-up, but you never know with Stepanek. He's quite an enigma.
Also in Brisbane, Amelie Mauresmo really showed me by beating Ana Ivanovic in two pretty easy sets. It may be more that Amelie recovered from her tough three-setter the day before more quickly than her younger, Serbian opponent, but sometimes that's all it takes. Ana may need to work on her fitness. Mauresmo may be able to make something out of this year - that was her first win over a top 10 player since 2006, and that's a fine way to start out 2009. She plays Marion Bartoli next, who had no trouble with Tathiana Garbin, so we'll see how Mauresmo deals with a well-rested opponent.
The biggest match tomorrow - the biggest match of the whole week - is Murray v. Federer. I expect we'll see them play again this year, at more significant tournaments. Murray wants Federer to know that the next time they meet in a slam final, Federer can expect more resistance. And Federer wants everyone to know that he doesn't have mono this year. It should be great.
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