After three years of magnificent, five-set finals at Wimbledon, we've finally had our first dud in a while. Despite the scorelines for the three sets being close, Berdych was never really in the match. Nadal actually did not play that well - he made a lot of unforced errors and only made a few of the trademark spectacular shots that he was making left and right against Andy Murray. His forehand, while heavy and spinny as ever, was not quite as easily placed as he would have liked - an unusual number of the Spaniard's usually reliable down-the-line shots drifted wide or long.
Despite the fact that Nadal's level of play was not as high as it's been during recent rounds, Berdych was unable to find his top gear as well. It would be one thing to come on court at the Wimbledon final and just get beaten by one of the best players the game's ever known. On the other hand, it's quite another to come out and not be able to muster your best tennis, because what other occasion is going to come along where it would be needed more?
Berdych was unable to play as well as he did against Federer or even Djokovic, and as a result, his defeat was all but assured. His other failure was an apparent unwillingness or inability to adopt another strategy when his initial gameplan was clearly unable to do the job against Nadal. Berdych tried to slug it out from the baseline, and when that didn't seem to work, he just kept on doing it. Credit to Berdych for playing so well that he made it this far, but it is disappointing that he couldn't do a bit better today.
It may have been that injury was troubling him, as he's pulled out of the Czech Republic's appearance in the Davis Cup this week. Nadal's done the same, but the loss for Spain - who has a very deep field and people of capable players to include - is not nearly so dear as the loss for the Czechs, who are already missing Radek Stepanek due to injury.
All in all, this Wimbledon fortnight had such an exciting and historic first week, that it was almost a guarantee that the second would be a letdown. There was some good tennis and a satisfying victor in the end, but aside from Roger Federer's defeat, there was nothing that really compared with the stunning action that absolutely littered the first six days of the tournament.
Almost everyone except Nadal and Serena are going to go away from this tournament disappointed - Yun-Hsun Lu is probably going to be happy for his run to the quarterfinals and his subsequent skyrocketing 40 places up in the ATP rankings, but everybody else has got to be thinking about missed opportunities. Falla and Bozoljiac could have beaten Federer, and Petszchner and Haase could have beaten Nadal. Surely, they will be encouraged by taking the game's best so close, but any excitement is leavened by the disappointment of not being able to seal the deal.
Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic fell short at the semifinal stage, once again. For players of their caliber, they won't be satisfied. They want to be in the finals, they want to win grand slams. And they certainly don't want to lose in straight sets on their way. For Andy Roddick, this is another chapter in the strange and mystifying history of the American losing heartbreaking fifth sets. I don't think it's indicative of anything new or worrisome for his progress, except that it's another chance he let get away. If he had beaten Lu in that fifth set, he really could have made a run at this title. Who knows if his draws will break so well in the coming years?
And Roger Federer drops to number three in the world this week, for the first time in seven years. With Nadal now the owner of two grand slams and three masters series shields this year, he has all but sealed up the year end number one ranking. It will be interesting to see if this loss, probably the most shocking in a year of shocking losses since the Australian Open, pumps up Fed or signals his waning interest in competing, day in and day out, in a sport that he so effortlessly dominated for more than half a decade.
While most players are taking the week (or month) off, or at least getting ready for the next round of Davis Cup, the tennis calendar marches on, and this week features the Hall of Fame championships in Newport, Rhode Island, the last grass court tournament of the year. They were kind enough to give Nicolas Mahut a wildcard (I expect he'll be getting a lot of these in the near future). It's actually an interesting field, but even though play begins tomorrow, I won't take an in-depth look until then. After spending two weeks getting up early to catch the tennis live, I need to catch up on my sleep.
Showing posts with label berdych. Show all posts
Showing posts with label berdych. Show all posts
Monday, July 5, 2010
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Wimbledon Final
The women's final this morning was - I'm sorry to say - a bit of a dud. Serena won, rather handily, as one might expect. I was glad to see Zvonareva free from meltdowns or crying fits, and she was respectful in her post-match comments. I think she was just happy to have made it that far - it's been the best two weeks of her career, for sure - and she wasn't going to let a little thing like losing to the best player in the women's game today. Unfortunately for Vera, the hits just kept on coming as she also lost in the doubles final to the unseeded duo King/Shvedova, and apparently she was unable to keep from breaking down in tears on court there. That's a shame.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's match between the men's finalists, there is a chance that we'll have a repeat performance. Nadal is 7-3 against Tomas Berdych, including winning the last six. The last time Berdych even took a set off Nadal was back in 2006. Now Berdych is playing the best two weeks of tennis he's ever put together - until last month's French Open, the Czech had only been past the fourth round of a grand slam once. And now he's in the Wimbledon final. Will he be able to rise to the occasion?
I hate to say it, but I'm afraid that he won't be able to meet the test of beating Rafael Nadal on this court, in a grand slam final. It's nothing like anything that Berdych has ever been a part of before. Berdych has five titles to his name, but the people he's beaten to win those titles are of a different sort of caliber of player than someone like Rafael Nadal, who is - without question - going down as one of the game's all-time greats.
Berdych was lucky to face Djokovic in the semis, because the Djoker had not been in particularly good form, while Nadal got a real test against Andy Murray. Considering that both matches were about equally difficult for the winners, Nadal's performance was significantly more impressive. If Nadal can manage that kind of form for three sets tomorrow, it's unlikely that Berdych will have any say in the outcome of the match.
This is not to say that Berdych doesn't have a shot. He'll need to play as well as he did against Roger Federer, if not even better, and he'll need to be able to keep it up for an entire match. He'll need to keep from being overcome by the situation, and mental toughness has not been a hallmark of his game. He's going to need to capitalize on every chance that he gets, because he's not going to get very many. It's a big ask for the big man, and I'll be honest - it's tough for me to see him pulling it off, all things considered. But that's why we play the game, after all. I didn't expect him to beat Federer, either, and he did that convincingly. We'll see what happens.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's match between the men's finalists, there is a chance that we'll have a repeat performance. Nadal is 7-3 against Tomas Berdych, including winning the last six. The last time Berdych even took a set off Nadal was back in 2006. Now Berdych is playing the best two weeks of tennis he's ever put together - until last month's French Open, the Czech had only been past the fourth round of a grand slam once. And now he's in the Wimbledon final. Will he be able to rise to the occasion?
I hate to say it, but I'm afraid that he won't be able to meet the test of beating Rafael Nadal on this court, in a grand slam final. It's nothing like anything that Berdych has ever been a part of before. Berdych has five titles to his name, but the people he's beaten to win those titles are of a different sort of caliber of player than someone like Rafael Nadal, who is - without question - going down as one of the game's all-time greats.
Berdych was lucky to face Djokovic in the semis, because the Djoker had not been in particularly good form, while Nadal got a real test against Andy Murray. Considering that both matches were about equally difficult for the winners, Nadal's performance was significantly more impressive. If Nadal can manage that kind of form for three sets tomorrow, it's unlikely that Berdych will have any say in the outcome of the match.
This is not to say that Berdych doesn't have a shot. He'll need to play as well as he did against Roger Federer, if not even better, and he'll need to be able to keep it up for an entire match. He'll need to keep from being overcome by the situation, and mental toughness has not been a hallmark of his game. He's going to need to capitalize on every chance that he gets, because he's not going to get very many. It's a big ask for the big man, and I'll be honest - it's tough for me to see him pulling it off, all things considered. But that's why we play the game, after all. I didn't expect him to beat Federer, either, and he did that convincingly. We'll see what happens.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Wimbledon Day 11
The men's semifinals are complete. Despite being two straight sets victories for the apparent favorites, they were fairly compelling matches, I have to say. Both featured one-break differences in the first and third sets, and very tight tiebreaks in the second. In general, the level of play from all four players was high, but ultimately, the two winners were able to perform more consistently and raise their games at the necessary moments.
Djokovic and Berdych both played some excellent points, but ultimately the biggest difference came down to serving acumen, and the tall Czech player was significantly stronger in this aspect of the game. Djokovic served too many double-faults, and he served them at crucial points in the match - on set point in the second set tiebreak and then at break point to allow Berdych to serve for the match in the third. This was despite some scintillating play to save (or allow Berdych to lose) four set points during that tiebreak. Ultimately, Djokovic has not played enough big matches of late, and this was the biggest one he had played in a very long time, while Berdych has become the surprise big-match player of the year.
The other semi was more hotly contested, though the scoreline is nearly identical. Murray had tens of thousands of his countrymen cheering him on, but that was not enough to get him past the lightning quick movement and bludgeoning forehand of Rafael Nadal. There were several moments in the match where Murray almost made that kind of stunning, game-changing shot that turned the tides of his matches against John Isner and Marin Cilic at the U.S. Open - highlight reel stuff that pumps him up and demoralizes his opponent. But at every instance, Nadal was ready and waiting to return one amazing near-winner with a slightly better reply.
Nadal looked the best he's looked all tournament, skipping around the court so quickly and lightly that it's easy to forget he was slogging his way through the French Open just a month ago, knee-deep in red clay. His forehand was unbelievable - he unleashed on a few shots that, to borrow a phrase from another sport, nearly "tore the cover off the ball." Despite the fact that he's going up against one of the bigger hitters on tour in the final, I find it unlikely that Berdych is going to be able to out-hit Nadal, if he plays this way.
As for tomorrow's women's final, Serena Williams is the clear favorite. No matter how different Zvonareva has looked this week, no matter how stunning her performance in her run to the final, it's nearly impossible to beat Serena in a grand slam final. Maria Sharapova has done it once and her own sister has done it twice, but that's it. Zvonareva's run to the final has been a combination of some mysterious force or event settling her brain, along with a draw that opened up for her at the right points, and some really excellent play when it was required. But I don't know if that will be enough to get her past Serena Williams.
The most dangerous thing for Serena is to assume that is already true, though. Zvonareva's best chance is to surprise the defending champion, catch her off-guard, and hopefully send her reeling long enough to land the knock-out blow. Zvonareva will have to play the match of her life, and Serena will have to be a little bit off her game, for the Russian to manage the upset. It's definitely unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's beyond the realm of possibility. We'll see what happens.
Djokovic and Berdych both played some excellent points, but ultimately the biggest difference came down to serving acumen, and the tall Czech player was significantly stronger in this aspect of the game. Djokovic served too many double-faults, and he served them at crucial points in the match - on set point in the second set tiebreak and then at break point to allow Berdych to serve for the match in the third. This was despite some scintillating play to save (or allow Berdych to lose) four set points during that tiebreak. Ultimately, Djokovic has not played enough big matches of late, and this was the biggest one he had played in a very long time, while Berdych has become the surprise big-match player of the year.
The other semi was more hotly contested, though the scoreline is nearly identical. Murray had tens of thousands of his countrymen cheering him on, but that was not enough to get him past the lightning quick movement and bludgeoning forehand of Rafael Nadal. There were several moments in the match where Murray almost made that kind of stunning, game-changing shot that turned the tides of his matches against John Isner and Marin Cilic at the U.S. Open - highlight reel stuff that pumps him up and demoralizes his opponent. But at every instance, Nadal was ready and waiting to return one amazing near-winner with a slightly better reply.
Nadal looked the best he's looked all tournament, skipping around the court so quickly and lightly that it's easy to forget he was slogging his way through the French Open just a month ago, knee-deep in red clay. His forehand was unbelievable - he unleashed on a few shots that, to borrow a phrase from another sport, nearly "tore the cover off the ball." Despite the fact that he's going up against one of the bigger hitters on tour in the final, I find it unlikely that Berdych is going to be able to out-hit Nadal, if he plays this way.
As for tomorrow's women's final, Serena Williams is the clear favorite. No matter how different Zvonareva has looked this week, no matter how stunning her performance in her run to the final, it's nearly impossible to beat Serena in a grand slam final. Maria Sharapova has done it once and her own sister has done it twice, but that's it. Zvonareva's run to the final has been a combination of some mysterious force or event settling her brain, along with a draw that opened up for her at the right points, and some really excellent play when it was required. But I don't know if that will be enough to get her past Serena Williams.
The most dangerous thing for Serena is to assume that is already true, though. Zvonareva's best chance is to surprise the defending champion, catch her off-guard, and hopefully send her reeling long enough to land the knock-out blow. Zvonareva will have to play the match of her life, and Serena will have to be a little bit off her game, for the Russian to manage the upset. It's definitely unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's beyond the realm of possibility. We'll see what happens.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Wimbledon Days 9 and 10
We're all set for the women's final. I think if you had been told a few weeks ago that a Russian was going to make it to the final at Wimbledon, your list would probably have included Dementieva, Safina, Kuznetsova, maybe Petrova or Kleybanova, maybe even Kirilenko. But Zvonareva looked like she was on the road to total mental breakdown - I was on-site when I saw her play her match at the U.S. Open last year against Flavia Pennetta, where she completely broke down, started bawling on court, and tried to remove her knee wrappings. After that, it was hard to imagine her keeping herself together for a run like this one.
But she's played very well, in upsetting Kim Clijsters and then facing an in-form Bulgarian Pironkova. I was very impressed with her performance, I have to say. She served well and kept her errors to a minimum. Her play was pretty much unrecognizable from the time I watched her on center court nine months ago. She even upset the Williams sisters in doubles this week, as part of the first team to beat the Williams sisters in more than a year. This could be her week - but having to face Serena in the final is no easy task. I'll have more to say about that tomorrow.
The men's semifinals will take place tomorrow, and just like in the quarterfinals, there is one name missing. One side features Nadal and Murray, who both overcome less than ideal starts (though Nadal's was much slower) to beat their quarterfinal opponents in four sets. That's what everyone expected heading into the tournament. And on the other side, Djokovic is in the quarterfinals, which was essentially a guarantee as soon as he beat Hewitt and Roddick flamed out. But facing him, rather than defending champion and seven-time defending finalist Roger Federer, we have the big Czech phenom, Tomas Berdych!
That was an amazing match, honestly. The quarterfinals were generally good (none were classics, but all were interesting in their own way) but Berdych's display was unlike anything I'd ever seen from the big man. At least, it was unlike anything I'd seen from him before in that he maintained his amazing level of play until he had sealed the deal. Before, I've seen him play that well, only to collapse and give it away (see Australian Open 2008). This time Berdych managed to keep up his stellar level of play even when it looked like he might fade away. It wasn't like the match he played against Federer earlier in the year, which Federer essentially gave away with errors and shanked forehands. Berdych played well enough to take this match from the former world number one, who will - shockingly - drop to number three next week.
As for tomorrow's match-ups, Djokovic has not played especially well this fortnight, and has found himself in the semifinals thanks to some intermittent good point and an undeniably favorable draw. He took full advantage of meeting Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarterfinals, dispatching of him easily, but is that the best preparation for a player who just upset Roger Federer? Djokovic is 2-0 against Berdych, but it's hard to say that's enough to really predict the winner of tomorrow's match. Berdych is almost the favorite to win it, at this point. It should be interesting to see if Berdych can keep rolling, or if Djokovic will find his game and make his first Grand Slam final since winning the Australian Open in 2008.
But Nadal-Murray, now that's a tough one to pick. Andy Murray's progress at Wimbledon has been interesting. He's played four times, and each time, he made it a round further. In 2008, he made the quarterfinals after winning a stunning comeback against Richard Gasquet in the 4th round. At that point, he was clearly exhausted and lost to Nadal. They also played at the Australian Open the year before, where Nadal won a long, grinding match, which Murray only lost on fitness, not talent. This year, at the Australian Open, it went the other way, as Nadal's knees gave out on him and Murray made it through.
These two have quite a history, as you can tell, and whichever one of them wins in the semifinals will be the favorite to win the tournament. Nadal, though he may not be 100% fit, just dominated the French Open and still hasn't lost a match here since 2007. In fact, he hasn't lost to anyone not named Federer at Wimbledon since 2005. I'm really excited about this match - can Nadal make the final again, all but sealing his place as World Number One at the end of the year, or will Murray fulfill the British hopes and make it to the final, something that Tim Henman could never do?
There are so many storylines converging in this one match, so many angles - and it's worth noting that these are two stellar tennis players, both at or very near the height of their power. It should be a lot of fun to watch. Here's hoping for a pair of good matches and that no one gets hurt.
But she's played very well, in upsetting Kim Clijsters and then facing an in-form Bulgarian Pironkova. I was very impressed with her performance, I have to say. She served well and kept her errors to a minimum. Her play was pretty much unrecognizable from the time I watched her on center court nine months ago. She even upset the Williams sisters in doubles this week, as part of the first team to beat the Williams sisters in more than a year. This could be her week - but having to face Serena in the final is no easy task. I'll have more to say about that tomorrow.
The men's semifinals will take place tomorrow, and just like in the quarterfinals, there is one name missing. One side features Nadal and Murray, who both overcome less than ideal starts (though Nadal's was much slower) to beat their quarterfinal opponents in four sets. That's what everyone expected heading into the tournament. And on the other side, Djokovic is in the quarterfinals, which was essentially a guarantee as soon as he beat Hewitt and Roddick flamed out. But facing him, rather than defending champion and seven-time defending finalist Roger Federer, we have the big Czech phenom, Tomas Berdych!
That was an amazing match, honestly. The quarterfinals were generally good (none were classics, but all were interesting in their own way) but Berdych's display was unlike anything I'd ever seen from the big man. At least, it was unlike anything I'd seen from him before in that he maintained his amazing level of play until he had sealed the deal. Before, I've seen him play that well, only to collapse and give it away (see Australian Open 2008). This time Berdych managed to keep up his stellar level of play even when it looked like he might fade away. It wasn't like the match he played against Federer earlier in the year, which Federer essentially gave away with errors and shanked forehands. Berdych played well enough to take this match from the former world number one, who will - shockingly - drop to number three next week.
As for tomorrow's match-ups, Djokovic has not played especially well this fortnight, and has found himself in the semifinals thanks to some intermittent good point and an undeniably favorable draw. He took full advantage of meeting Yen-Hsun Lu in the quarterfinals, dispatching of him easily, but is that the best preparation for a player who just upset Roger Federer? Djokovic is 2-0 against Berdych, but it's hard to say that's enough to really predict the winner of tomorrow's match. Berdych is almost the favorite to win it, at this point. It should be interesting to see if Berdych can keep rolling, or if Djokovic will find his game and make his first Grand Slam final since winning the Australian Open in 2008.
But Nadal-Murray, now that's a tough one to pick. Andy Murray's progress at Wimbledon has been interesting. He's played four times, and each time, he made it a round further. In 2008, he made the quarterfinals after winning a stunning comeback against Richard Gasquet in the 4th round. At that point, he was clearly exhausted and lost to Nadal. They also played at the Australian Open the year before, where Nadal won a long, grinding match, which Murray only lost on fitness, not talent. This year, at the Australian Open, it went the other way, as Nadal's knees gave out on him and Murray made it through.
These two have quite a history, as you can tell, and whichever one of them wins in the semifinals will be the favorite to win the tournament. Nadal, though he may not be 100% fit, just dominated the French Open and still hasn't lost a match here since 2007. In fact, he hasn't lost to anyone not named Federer at Wimbledon since 2005. I'm really excited about this match - can Nadal make the final again, all but sealing his place as World Number One at the end of the year, or will Murray fulfill the British hopes and make it to the final, something that Tim Henman could never do?
There are so many storylines converging in this one match, so many angles - and it's worth noting that these are two stellar tennis players, both at or very near the height of their power. It should be a lot of fun to watch. Here's hoping for a pair of good matches and that no one gets hurt.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Semifinals Complete
The lineup for both the men's and women's finals has been determined. The men's semifinals, which both took place today, went about as expected. It was a great pair of matches, even though the results were just about what one might have expected, going in.
The closer of the two matches was definitely Berdych-Soderling. It was five sets of big-hitting tennis, with some really strong shot-making by both players. Soderling started out on fire, playing at a similar level to the one he maintained against Roger Federer. Berdych couldn't quite hang with him, and he managed to break him once and win the set. But after that, it was Soderling's level that dipped in the next two sets, and Berdych was able to go up by two sets to one. At that point, the old Berdych we were so familiar with showed his face. On the verge of making his first grand slam final, he got tight. Meanwhile, Soderling found his game again - he never quite got back to the level he played against Federer again, but it was more than enough to handle the somewhat shaky Czech. When all was said and done, he got through to his second consecutive French Open final in five sets.
Nadal's match had significantly fewer twists and turns. He was in command from the word go, and it looked like he was going to have an exceptionally straightforward win until he seemed to start hot-dogging just a little bit at the end of the third set. He was going for unreasonably tough shots, possibly trying to give the French fans more of a show. He ended up getting broken while serving for a spot in the finals, when Melzer started playing his best tennis of the entire match. He broke, and got up an early mini-break in the tiebreak. But in the end, Rafa restored order and ended up winning in three, as expected.
So really, a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final is almost as exciting as Federer-Nadal. While Roger and Rafa have immense respect for each other on and off the court, I believe it to the case that Rafa and Robin actively dislike each other. Nadal will be looking for some revenge, no doubt. More on that match-up tomorrow.
The women's final is tomorrow as well, and that features an extremely surprising pair of finalists. Sam Stosur and Francesca Schiavone should be an interesting match, even if it doesn't have the star power of some recent finals. I expect that Stosur will overpower the crafty and versatile Italian, but Schiavone also could be a better big-match player than the Aussie. Schiavone seems to thrive on playing to the crowd, as she demonstrated earlier in the week by dropping to her feet and kissing the clay after one of her wins. She may have the crowd behind her, but it probably won't be enough to blunt the power of Sam Stosur. It would be one of the greatest surprise wins and culminations of a crazy two weeks of tennis that we've seen in years on either the men's or women's side.
The closer of the two matches was definitely Berdych-Soderling. It was five sets of big-hitting tennis, with some really strong shot-making by both players. Soderling started out on fire, playing at a similar level to the one he maintained against Roger Federer. Berdych couldn't quite hang with him, and he managed to break him once and win the set. But after that, it was Soderling's level that dipped in the next two sets, and Berdych was able to go up by two sets to one. At that point, the old Berdych we were so familiar with showed his face. On the verge of making his first grand slam final, he got tight. Meanwhile, Soderling found his game again - he never quite got back to the level he played against Federer again, but it was more than enough to handle the somewhat shaky Czech. When all was said and done, he got through to his second consecutive French Open final in five sets.
Nadal's match had significantly fewer twists and turns. He was in command from the word go, and it looked like he was going to have an exceptionally straightforward win until he seemed to start hot-dogging just a little bit at the end of the third set. He was going for unreasonably tough shots, possibly trying to give the French fans more of a show. He ended up getting broken while serving for a spot in the finals, when Melzer started playing his best tennis of the entire match. He broke, and got up an early mini-break in the tiebreak. But in the end, Rafa restored order and ended up winning in three, as expected.
So really, a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final is almost as exciting as Federer-Nadal. While Roger and Rafa have immense respect for each other on and off the court, I believe it to the case that Rafa and Robin actively dislike each other. Nadal will be looking for some revenge, no doubt. More on that match-up tomorrow.
The women's final is tomorrow as well, and that features an extremely surprising pair of finalists. Sam Stosur and Francesca Schiavone should be an interesting match, even if it doesn't have the star power of some recent finals. I expect that Stosur will overpower the crafty and versatile Italian, but Schiavone also could be a better big-match player than the Aussie. Schiavone seems to thrive on playing to the crowd, as she demonstrated earlier in the week by dropping to her feet and kissing the clay after one of her wins. She may have the crowd behind her, but it probably won't be enough to blunt the power of Sam Stosur. It would be one of the greatest surprise wins and culminations of a crazy two weeks of tennis that we've seen in years on either the men's or women's side.
Friday, June 4, 2010
French Open Semifnals
Well, the women's semifinals are complete, and they were a bit anti-climactic. Dementieva was troubled with some sort of injury, and despite holding tough for a whole set, which she lost in a tiebreak, she was forced to retire without playing through the rest of the match. It's always a shame to be struggling with an injury at such an important stage. And apparently the shortened match had some effect on Jelena Jankovic's preparation, because she was not able to get up for her match against Sam Stosur. Both of the favorites lost in the semis, so it's a very surprising final pairing: two first-time finalists in Australian Sam Stosur and Italian Francesca Schiavone. Anybody who had those two in their bracket gets kudos from me.
Here's hoping that the men's semifinals, taking place tomorrow, are a bit more exciting. I'll put my money on the fact that they will be.
The first match features Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling, two really big-hitting guys. Soderling leads the head to head 5-3, and they're 1-1 on clay. It's also worth noting that Berdych won their last meeting, earlier this year, by the score of 6-2, 6-2. Both players have been blowing their opponents off the court up to this point in the tournament. Soderling has dropped two sets to Berdych's zero, but Soderling has faced the stiffer competition, not least of which was his win over Federer in the quarterfinals. I think the way Soderling reacts to that win will determine the outcome of this match, in large part: if Soderling is satisfied with getting that win, Berdych will probably be able to beat him tomorrow. But if he's inspired by it, then I give him the edge. It's an exciting pairing - look for plenty of big hitting, but not a lot of long rallies. Soderling really should have the advantage, as he can move and defend better, while he can hit just as big.
I'll be surprised if the second semifinal is as competitive. Credit to Jurgen Melzer for making it this far, but his Cindarella story ends here. Melzer has only played Nadal twice, and in those four sets he's won a total of eight games. Nadal is now the only slam winner left in the field, and he's the sort of player who will take that as a chance to get more focused, rather than letting his focus drop. He wants his French Open title back, and he has a really good chance to get it back. It would be fascinating to see a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final.
But first, both of them have to win. I think there's a chance that Nadal will find Tomas Berdych on the other side of the net, but I'd be shocked if either Soderling or Berdych gets Melzer. I think it would take a pretty major injury to Nadal for him to lose to Jurgen. Fingers crossed that won't happen.
Here's hoping that the men's semifinals, taking place tomorrow, are a bit more exciting. I'll put my money on the fact that they will be.
The first match features Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling, two really big-hitting guys. Soderling leads the head to head 5-3, and they're 1-1 on clay. It's also worth noting that Berdych won their last meeting, earlier this year, by the score of 6-2, 6-2. Both players have been blowing their opponents off the court up to this point in the tournament. Soderling has dropped two sets to Berdych's zero, but Soderling has faced the stiffer competition, not least of which was his win over Federer in the quarterfinals. I think the way Soderling reacts to that win will determine the outcome of this match, in large part: if Soderling is satisfied with getting that win, Berdych will probably be able to beat him tomorrow. But if he's inspired by it, then I give him the edge. It's an exciting pairing - look for plenty of big hitting, but not a lot of long rallies. Soderling really should have the advantage, as he can move and defend better, while he can hit just as big.
I'll be surprised if the second semifinal is as competitive. Credit to Jurgen Melzer for making it this far, but his Cindarella story ends here. Melzer has only played Nadal twice, and in those four sets he's won a total of eight games. Nadal is now the only slam winner left in the field, and he's the sort of player who will take that as a chance to get more focused, rather than letting his focus drop. He wants his French Open title back, and he has a really good chance to get it back. It would be fascinating to see a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final.
But first, both of them have to win. I think there's a chance that Nadal will find Tomas Berdych on the other side of the net, but I'd be shocked if either Soderling or Berdych gets Melzer. I think it would take a pretty major injury to Nadal for him to lose to Jurgen. Fingers crossed that won't happen.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Miami Review and Next Week's Preview
Roddick won today, in what could only be described as an efficient and workmanlike performance. It didn't reach the level of shotmaking and spectacle that Roddick got to against Nadal, but it wasn't necessary. Berdych never quite got out of third gear, and he really needed to hit that level in order to push Roddick today. Roddick served effectively - not huge, but he was hitting his spots and preventing Berdych from really getting his feet underneath him and getting too many returns deep. He won 70% of his second serve points against the Czech, and he's going to be tough to beat when that's the case.
In fact, Roddick never even faced a break point against Berdych. He was only broken twice in the entire tournament, once against Benjamin Becker and once against Nadal. And that's all well and good, but he also managed to take advantage of the brief period where Berdych got troubled by the pressure of the situation or the sun or just an inexplicable dip in focus. Roddick broke Berdych at 5-all in the first set and then again at love-all in the second, and that was all he needed. He had a couple more break points near the end of the second set which were also match points, but Berdych managed to save them. That kind of thing could have given a less steady player pause, and it could have turned the match around. I've seen it happen before. But Roddick came back and served out the match with aplomb.
It's a bit of shame that the clay court season is just starting, because this is the biggest purple patch of Roddick's play that we've seen in a long time. And he's said in his post-tournament interview that he's not thrilled about the move to clay, which is a shame. Yes, it blunts the effectiveness of his hard serve, but his kick will still work, and his new style of defensive-minded back court play should actually serve him well. There is no reason he can't get some points at these claycourt masters series events or get into the French Open. I really hope to see him get over his phobia of crushed red brick.
Whether Roddick wants it to or not, the claycourt season starts in earnest now. But that doesn't mean that it has to leave the United States quite yet. The U.S.'s last vestige of claycourt tennis takes place this week in Houston, Texas. It should be interesting to see if an American player can do well here, as there are quite a few of them in the draw. It's green clay, which is quicker than its red counterpart, so that could help.
Lleyton Hewitt won this tournament last year, and he's back this year, in his first tournament since the drubbing he got from Roger Federer at the Australian Open. He could open against Mardy Fish, if Fish survives his first round. Both players are recovering from surgery and subsequent injury, but it could still be a good match.
Also, be on the lookout for Americans Querrey, Isner, and Russell, who are all in the same half of the draw. Even though he's the lowest-ranked, I think that Russell's game is actually the most well-suited to clay. Keep an eye on the fourth American in the bottom half of the draw as well - Wayne Odesnik, who is going to keep playing tennis while he waits for the decision resulting from the discovery that he was caught with HGH on his way into Australia. I'm surprised by his decision, and interested to see how he plays under the circumstances. He's actually not a bad player on this surface, but he's just going to get hounded here.
Also, keep an eye on Fernando Gonzalez, the top seed, and Horacio Zeballos. We all know that the South Americans have always been better on the clay. Another player who's one to watch in the top half is American wildcard Donald Young. He dropped in qualifying in the last four tournaments he's played in, so it's got to be a gift to get a wildcard directly into the main draw. Let's see if he can take advantage. Taylor Dent is also here, but this surface has just got to be death for a guy who plays big serve, net rush, and put away the volley. Don't expect him to get far.
The other tournament going on this coming week is on the other side of the pond, in Casablanca. The draw there is not especially robust, either. This week is always a bit of a dead week in some respect, as the players who did well during the hard court swing need rest, and the players who are really focusing on the claycourt swing want to get ready for the Monte Carlo masters, which takes place the following week.
The top seed and favorite to win it is Stan Wawrinka, who shouldn't really be troubled on his way to the semis, where he might face a Frenchman like Arnaud Clement or Paul-Henri Mathieu. It would be a surprise for the Swiss number two to fall prior to that. The bottom half is a bit more open, with Victor Hanescu - who really shouldn't consider clay his best surface but somehow does - Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer and two of the tournaments potential winners actually meeting in the first round - Olivier Rochus and Richard Gasquet.
After the excitement of two masters series in a row, the week that follows is going to feel a bit like a letdown, but there's still bound to be some good tennis. Just like it is for a lot of these players, it's a warm-up before the real claycourt season starts in earnest next week.
In fact, Roddick never even faced a break point against Berdych. He was only broken twice in the entire tournament, once against Benjamin Becker and once against Nadal. And that's all well and good, but he also managed to take advantage of the brief period where Berdych got troubled by the pressure of the situation or the sun or just an inexplicable dip in focus. Roddick broke Berdych at 5-all in the first set and then again at love-all in the second, and that was all he needed. He had a couple more break points near the end of the second set which were also match points, but Berdych managed to save them. That kind of thing could have given a less steady player pause, and it could have turned the match around. I've seen it happen before. But Roddick came back and served out the match with aplomb.
It's a bit of shame that the clay court season is just starting, because this is the biggest purple patch of Roddick's play that we've seen in a long time. And he's said in his post-tournament interview that he's not thrilled about the move to clay, which is a shame. Yes, it blunts the effectiveness of his hard serve, but his kick will still work, and his new style of defensive-minded back court play should actually serve him well. There is no reason he can't get some points at these claycourt masters series events or get into the French Open. I really hope to see him get over his phobia of crushed red brick.
Whether Roddick wants it to or not, the claycourt season starts in earnest now. But that doesn't mean that it has to leave the United States quite yet. The U.S.'s last vestige of claycourt tennis takes place this week in Houston, Texas. It should be interesting to see if an American player can do well here, as there are quite a few of them in the draw. It's green clay, which is quicker than its red counterpart, so that could help.
Lleyton Hewitt won this tournament last year, and he's back this year, in his first tournament since the drubbing he got from Roger Federer at the Australian Open. He could open against Mardy Fish, if Fish survives his first round. Both players are recovering from surgery and subsequent injury, but it could still be a good match.
Also, be on the lookout for Americans Querrey, Isner, and Russell, who are all in the same half of the draw. Even though he's the lowest-ranked, I think that Russell's game is actually the most well-suited to clay. Keep an eye on the fourth American in the bottom half of the draw as well - Wayne Odesnik, who is going to keep playing tennis while he waits for the decision resulting from the discovery that he was caught with HGH on his way into Australia. I'm surprised by his decision, and interested to see how he plays under the circumstances. He's actually not a bad player on this surface, but he's just going to get hounded here.
Also, keep an eye on Fernando Gonzalez, the top seed, and Horacio Zeballos. We all know that the South Americans have always been better on the clay. Another player who's one to watch in the top half is American wildcard Donald Young. He dropped in qualifying in the last four tournaments he's played in, so it's got to be a gift to get a wildcard directly into the main draw. Let's see if he can take advantage. Taylor Dent is also here, but this surface has just got to be death for a guy who plays big serve, net rush, and put away the volley. Don't expect him to get far.
The other tournament going on this coming week is on the other side of the pond, in Casablanca. The draw there is not especially robust, either. This week is always a bit of a dead week in some respect, as the players who did well during the hard court swing need rest, and the players who are really focusing on the claycourt swing want to get ready for the Monte Carlo masters, which takes place the following week.
The top seed and favorite to win it is Stan Wawrinka, who shouldn't really be troubled on his way to the semis, where he might face a Frenchman like Arnaud Clement or Paul-Henri Mathieu. It would be a surprise for the Swiss number two to fall prior to that. The bottom half is a bit more open, with Victor Hanescu - who really shouldn't consider clay his best surface but somehow does - Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer and two of the tournaments potential winners actually meeting in the first round - Olivier Rochus and Richard Gasquet.
After the excitement of two masters series in a row, the week that follows is going to feel a bit like a letdown, but there's still bound to be some good tennis. Just like it is for a lot of these players, it's a warm-up before the real claycourt season starts in earnest next week.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Miami Final
Tomorrow, the men's final in Miami comes to a close. Once again, Roddick made an unlikely run, beating one top ten player en route to his final. In this case, his win was a bit more significant - Nadal here, while his toughest opponent in Indian Wells was a moderately choking Robin Soderling. Here, there was no choke, and that's the biggest difference. A few weeks ago, Roddick hung around and Soderling managed to lose, but Roddick took the match - emphatically - from Nadal on friday. That may prove to be all the difference.
Still, the situation is eerily similar. Roddick is the favorite, with his higher ranking and favorable head to head against his opponent. He had the momentum going in to the final against Ljubicic, whose tournament ultimately turned out to be a fluke, or maybe just one of the last big runs of a former top three player. Whatever it was, it was too much for Roddick to handle, despite the fact that everything seemed like it should have gone his way. Even the way he lost - Roddick was leading the tour in tiebreaks, but he couldn't pull out either against Ljubicic.
His opponent is a similar sort of player. Big guy, big server, and kind of a career underachiever. Not to mention, Berdych had a tougher road to the final. He went through three top ten players, consecutively - Federer, Verdasco, and Soderling. The last of which was a complete beatdown, as the Swede opted not to really show up for the match. Berdych has a ton of talent and can hit the crap out of the ball, but hasn't been playing great in the big moments. The real representative moment of his career has been the Australian Open against Roger Federer, up two sets to none and with a break point to serve for the match, he duffed a volley into the net.
This week, he seems to have shaken some of his demons. Not so much against Soderling, because Berdych played well, but as mentioned, the Swede was barely even there. And not against Federer, either. Berdych played solidly, but Federer gave that match away. Match point on his own serve in the third-set tiebreak? You would have bet your house on Federer winning that. However, Berdych showed real guts in sticking with Fernando Verdasco and taking him off his game. That may have been the Czech's most impressive performance.
Still, if Roddick can play at the level he played against Nadal, even in the first set when he was getting beaten, he has to like his odds against Berdych. One of the big differences between this final and the last one is that Roddick has already beaten Berdych twice this year: once at Brisbane and one in San Jose. Both were tight. In Brisbane, Berdych blew Roddick off the court in the first set, winning 6-1, before Roddick took the next two. In San Jose, Roddick won in two tiebreaks in a match with no breaks of serve.
That may be the kind of match to look for tomorrow. It all depends on a couple of factors. First of all, how on the ball Berdych is when he comes out. He can make a lot of errors, and if that's the way he's playing, expect Roddick to hang back and play more of his newer style, hanging back and keeping the ball in play. But it would not shock me, if Berdych comes out hitting his spots, if that style of play doesn't get Roddick very far. In the event that Berdych starts hitting Andy off the court, it will be interesting to see if he tries the aggressive style he used against Nadal, and to see if he can pull it off as effectively.
In either of those cases, I think Roddick wins this one. He's gotten smarter as he's matured as a tennis player, and I know that he is going to be very reluctant to have this happen to him in two consecutive tournaments. He knows he's facing a talented player who has the capability to beat him just like Ljubicic did. But Roddick will come in prepared, mentally, with a gameplan to ensure that doesn't happen again.
One last note on Roddick - how classy is this guy who commits to do a charity doubles match the night before the final, and doesn't even think of dropping his commitment despite making another surprising run to the last two. I'm really glad to have him still in the game, and hope to have him around at this level for quite a few more years.
The women's final took place this morning, but if you blinked, you may have missed it. It probably doesn't deserve a lot of attention, because while Kim Clijsters managed to find the solid form that she couldn't maintain against her compatriot Justine Henin, her opponent Venus Williams was never in the match. She did not look like the player who had won 17 matches and two tournaments consecutively. It's just like when Clijsters got blitzed at the Australian Open. There's not a lot to learn from the match, because it was just a bad day in the office. Good for Kim for staying solid, but I don't think Venus should be too worried by this loss. She'll get ready for the clay and forget about it.
Still, the situation is eerily similar. Roddick is the favorite, with his higher ranking and favorable head to head against his opponent. He had the momentum going in to the final against Ljubicic, whose tournament ultimately turned out to be a fluke, or maybe just one of the last big runs of a former top three player. Whatever it was, it was too much for Roddick to handle, despite the fact that everything seemed like it should have gone his way. Even the way he lost - Roddick was leading the tour in tiebreaks, but he couldn't pull out either against Ljubicic.
His opponent is a similar sort of player. Big guy, big server, and kind of a career underachiever. Not to mention, Berdych had a tougher road to the final. He went through three top ten players, consecutively - Federer, Verdasco, and Soderling. The last of which was a complete beatdown, as the Swede opted not to really show up for the match. Berdych has a ton of talent and can hit the crap out of the ball, but hasn't been playing great in the big moments. The real representative moment of his career has been the Australian Open against Roger Federer, up two sets to none and with a break point to serve for the match, he duffed a volley into the net.
This week, he seems to have shaken some of his demons. Not so much against Soderling, because Berdych played well, but as mentioned, the Swede was barely even there. And not against Federer, either. Berdych played solidly, but Federer gave that match away. Match point on his own serve in the third-set tiebreak? You would have bet your house on Federer winning that. However, Berdych showed real guts in sticking with Fernando Verdasco and taking him off his game. That may have been the Czech's most impressive performance.
Still, if Roddick can play at the level he played against Nadal, even in the first set when he was getting beaten, he has to like his odds against Berdych. One of the big differences between this final and the last one is that Roddick has already beaten Berdych twice this year: once at Brisbane and one in San Jose. Both were tight. In Brisbane, Berdych blew Roddick off the court in the first set, winning 6-1, before Roddick took the next two. In San Jose, Roddick won in two tiebreaks in a match with no breaks of serve.
That may be the kind of match to look for tomorrow. It all depends on a couple of factors. First of all, how on the ball Berdych is when he comes out. He can make a lot of errors, and if that's the way he's playing, expect Roddick to hang back and play more of his newer style, hanging back and keeping the ball in play. But it would not shock me, if Berdych comes out hitting his spots, if that style of play doesn't get Roddick very far. In the event that Berdych starts hitting Andy off the court, it will be interesting to see if he tries the aggressive style he used against Nadal, and to see if he can pull it off as effectively.
In either of those cases, I think Roddick wins this one. He's gotten smarter as he's matured as a tennis player, and I know that he is going to be very reluctant to have this happen to him in two consecutive tournaments. He knows he's facing a talented player who has the capability to beat him just like Ljubicic did. But Roddick will come in prepared, mentally, with a gameplan to ensure that doesn't happen again.
One last note on Roddick - how classy is this guy who commits to do a charity doubles match the night before the final, and doesn't even think of dropping his commitment despite making another surprising run to the last two. I'm really glad to have him still in the game, and hope to have him around at this level for quite a few more years.
The women's final took place this morning, but if you blinked, you may have missed it. It probably doesn't deserve a lot of attention, because while Kim Clijsters managed to find the solid form that she couldn't maintain against her compatriot Justine Henin, her opponent Venus Williams was never in the match. She did not look like the player who had won 17 matches and two tournaments consecutively. It's just like when Clijsters got blitzed at the Australian Open. There's not a lot to learn from the match, because it was just a bad day in the office. Good for Kim for staying solid, but I don't think Venus should be too worried by this loss. She'll get ready for the clay and forget about it.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Miami Semifinals
No real surprises in the two Miami quarterfinals that took place today. The match between Robin Soderling and Mikhail Youzhny was Soderling's to lose. Youzhny didn't win his first service game until his fifth try, near the beginning of the second set. That gave him a momentary boost, when he broke back and evened the set, but it didn't last, as he was broken again and Soderling served it out. The Russian just didn't have any answers for Soderling today.
His opponent tomorrow, may have more to do to counter Soderling's power - he brings plenty of his own power to the table. The match between Tomas Berdych and Fernando Verdasco was exactly the type of match that the big Czech had developed a reputation for losing. Tight, against a tough player. Verdasco jumped out to an early lead and looked like he might take the match in two, but once Berdych took the tiebreak, everything was going his way. Fernando tried to stage a comeback, but Berdych held strong, in a reversal of his usual fortune in these sorts of matches. Soderling definitely has the advantage in their match-up, since he's just been playing imperious tennis so far this week, but Berdych has faced tougher competition, and he's come out on top. That could give him the confidence he needs.
The women's semifinals today were also interesting. Venus Williams dismissed Marion Bartoli without too much fuss, much as Soderling did with Youzhny. But Clijsters and Henin had a match that was even tenser than Verdasco-Berdych. In the end, it was really a lot like their meeting earlier this year in Brisbane. Three sets, a third-set tiebreak, periods of scintillating stuff, and then also some stretches of really poor, error-strewn play from both. In the end, it was a great match though, and Clijsters just barely came away with the victory. Henin has got to be eager to beat her compatriot in her comeback, as she's 0-2 so far, and now their overall head-to-head is 12-12. Doesn't get much closer than that.
Tomorrow, Roddick faces Nadal and Berdych faces Soderling. There is so much riding on it for all four of these players. Nadal hasn't won a title in almost eleven months. Berdych and Roddick haven't won a Masters title in years. Soderling has never won one. Everybody still in the running could use this to bump their career up a level - for everybody but Soderling, up to a level they've been to before but haven't been recently.
Predictions are tough in situations like this. I think Nadal and Soderling have the edge in both their matches, as both are higher ranked and have the edge in the head to head. Nadal is 5-2 against Roddick and Soderling is 4-2 against Berdych. Both Roddick and Berdych are the bookie's underdogs, too. Roddick is 3.1:1 at the moment and Berdych is 3.4:1. But those are relatively tight odds.
Roddick needs to serve well. As close to 70% as he can manage, and to win about 55% of his second serve points. But really, the big stat for Roddick tomorrow is going to be break points. Nadal will give him a couple on serve, and no matter how great he's serving, Nadal is going to get a few looks at breaking him. If Roddick can convert on his chances and save Nadal's chances, he'll win the match. Roddick hasn't really been playing like a big point or big match player for much of the year, despite his great match record. This is going to be his opportunity to show the field that he's a contender day-in, day-out, and not just when he gets particularly fire up, like he undoubtedly will at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
For Nadal, he needs his knees to stay healthy. He's looked in fine form so far this tournament, but any hint of pain that could threaten his claycourt season is going to worry him a lot. He may be more careful as a result, so he'll need to watch out if Roddick tries to spread the court. He'll need his forehand to be firing, and he'll need to get a read on the Roddick serve, as well as to take care of his own deal on serve. But just like for Andy, it all comes down to the big points. If he can convert more often than his opponent, he's going to win.
It's harder to say as much about the Berdych-Soderling match, as both players have the ability to hit each other off the court. For these guys, it's going to come down to consistency. While Roddick and Nadal can both be expected to be on top of their games from the first ball, Berdych and Soderling can both be prone to lulls. If the other player manages to capitalize when his opponent isn't playing his best, that could be enough to win a set, or even the match. Both players have really high ball tosses on their serve, so a windy evening could wreak havoc with their games.
Anybody could walk away with this title on Sunday, so I'm eager to see what happens tomorrow.
His opponent tomorrow, may have more to do to counter Soderling's power - he brings plenty of his own power to the table. The match between Tomas Berdych and Fernando Verdasco was exactly the type of match that the big Czech had developed a reputation for losing. Tight, against a tough player. Verdasco jumped out to an early lead and looked like he might take the match in two, but once Berdych took the tiebreak, everything was going his way. Fernando tried to stage a comeback, but Berdych held strong, in a reversal of his usual fortune in these sorts of matches. Soderling definitely has the advantage in their match-up, since he's just been playing imperious tennis so far this week, but Berdych has faced tougher competition, and he's come out on top. That could give him the confidence he needs.
The women's semifinals today were also interesting. Venus Williams dismissed Marion Bartoli without too much fuss, much as Soderling did with Youzhny. But Clijsters and Henin had a match that was even tenser than Verdasco-Berdych. In the end, it was really a lot like their meeting earlier this year in Brisbane. Three sets, a third-set tiebreak, periods of scintillating stuff, and then also some stretches of really poor, error-strewn play from both. In the end, it was a great match though, and Clijsters just barely came away with the victory. Henin has got to be eager to beat her compatriot in her comeback, as she's 0-2 so far, and now their overall head-to-head is 12-12. Doesn't get much closer than that.
Tomorrow, Roddick faces Nadal and Berdych faces Soderling. There is so much riding on it for all four of these players. Nadal hasn't won a title in almost eleven months. Berdych and Roddick haven't won a Masters title in years. Soderling has never won one. Everybody still in the running could use this to bump their career up a level - for everybody but Soderling, up to a level they've been to before but haven't been recently.
Predictions are tough in situations like this. I think Nadal and Soderling have the edge in both their matches, as both are higher ranked and have the edge in the head to head. Nadal is 5-2 against Roddick and Soderling is 4-2 against Berdych. Both Roddick and Berdych are the bookie's underdogs, too. Roddick is 3.1:1 at the moment and Berdych is 3.4:1. But those are relatively tight odds.
Roddick needs to serve well. As close to 70% as he can manage, and to win about 55% of his second serve points. But really, the big stat for Roddick tomorrow is going to be break points. Nadal will give him a couple on serve, and no matter how great he's serving, Nadal is going to get a few looks at breaking him. If Roddick can convert on his chances and save Nadal's chances, he'll win the match. Roddick hasn't really been playing like a big point or big match player for much of the year, despite his great match record. This is going to be his opportunity to show the field that he's a contender day-in, day-out, and not just when he gets particularly fire up, like he undoubtedly will at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
For Nadal, he needs his knees to stay healthy. He's looked in fine form so far this tournament, but any hint of pain that could threaten his claycourt season is going to worry him a lot. He may be more careful as a result, so he'll need to watch out if Roddick tries to spread the court. He'll need his forehand to be firing, and he'll need to get a read on the Roddick serve, as well as to take care of his own deal on serve. But just like for Andy, it all comes down to the big points. If he can convert more often than his opponent, he's going to win.
It's harder to say as much about the Berdych-Soderling match, as both players have the ability to hit each other off the court. For these guys, it's going to come down to consistency. While Roddick and Nadal can both be expected to be on top of their games from the first ball, Berdych and Soderling can both be prone to lulls. If the other player manages to capitalize when his opponent isn't playing his best, that could be enough to win a set, or even the match. Both players have really high ball tosses on their serve, so a windy evening could wreak havoc with their games.
Anybody could walk away with this title on Sunday, so I'm eager to see what happens tomorrow.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Miami Quarterfinals - Day 2
One of the men's semifinals is set, and it was the one that everyone expected after Novak Djokovic lost in the second round to Olivier Rochus. Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal both breezed through their quarterfinal matches against potentially dangerous, big-hitting opponents. Roddick and Nadal were both just more solid than their opponents on the big points. Roddick broke Almagro three times and Nadal broke Tsonga four, while neither was broken. Tsonga had more chances against Nadal, so he'll feel like he had more of an opportunity. After going 0 for 8 as Tsonga did, Almagro can't feel too bad about missing both of his chances.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Miami Quarterfinals
It looked like most of the day would go by without any particularly stunning upsets. Almagro had beaten Bellucci and Verdasco had beaten Cilic, but those matches were always going to be tight. They weren't stunning upsets. Marion Bartoli had beaten Yanina Wickmeyer, but again, they are very close in the rankings and it was tight.
And then, Tomas Berdych produced the upset of the week. He was 1-8 going into this match against Roger Federer, and hadn't won since the Olympics in 2004. Everyone remembers the Czech's epic choke job against the Swiss in the 2009 Australian Open, when he he was up 2 sets to love, and had a point to break and go up 5-4 in the third, so he could serve for the match. He duffed a shot into the net, and from that point on, Federer's comeback never seemed to be in doubt.
Tonight, Berdych started slow, with Federer breaking him in the first game, but the big man stormed back to take the set 6-4 on the strength of two breaks. He was two points from the match in the second set, but ended up losing it in an error-filled tiebreak. The third set also went to a tiebreak, and Federer had match point on his own serve, which Berdych gamely saved with a few of his trademark massive forehands. Then Federer sailed a shot long and it was all over.
Huge, huge win for Berdych. His half of the draw is decimated, as he's eliminated the last real contender for the title. One of the four players left on his side is making it to the final - in addition to Berdych, there is Verdasco, Youzhny, and Soderling. Berdych is the only one who has made it past this stage at a Masters event (except for the Swede, who made the semis in Indian Wells last week) but for all the other players left, this is going to be uncharted territory. It's going to a hard-fought place in the finals, as all four of the remaining players know that they could have a shot at a Masters shield.
The bottom half of the draw is relatively tough, with three top-ten players remaining instead of only one. The only three-set match from the bottom half of the draw today was between Tomaz Bellucci and Nicolas Almagro. Almagro does seem to enjoy being the villain, as he relished in his role against the heavily pro-Brazilian crowd. He'll be even more of an antagonist against Roddick tomorrow, but if he can hit as well as he can, he might trouble the American.
Particularly if Roddick gets out of the gates going as slowly as he did against Becker today. I think that Andy was just late getting to the court, because he dropped serve in his first service game of the match, and saved three break point chances to keep himself from being down 1-5. After saving that, he decided to start playing, so he quickly broke back and ended up winning the set in a tiebreak. That set was nearly a lost cause, so credit Roddick for not giving up and thinking about winning in three. His opponent came off the blocks playing like Boris Becker, not Benjamin, but he couldn't keep up that pace.
The other two matches were slightly less interesting, as Tsonga just bludgeoned Juan Carlos Ferrero off the court and Nadal once again outplayed his good friend and fellow Spaniard David Ferrer on the big points. Lots of grinding, long rallies, few winners, and Nadal on top. About as one would expect. When they face each other, Nadal can expect Tsonga to come to net more often, and to go for his shots a lot more. It could be an entertaining match. After dismantling Nadal in the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2008, Tsonga has gone 0-3 against the Spaniard, but as Berdych demonstrated, those streaks aren't destiny.
Nadal is now the last of the big four remaining, just like last week. I know he'll want to take advantage of it, but he's going to want to start getting ready for the Clay court tournament in Monty Carlo, which is only a week and a half away at this point. That's his bread and butter, and he has a lot of points to defend in the clay court season. There's a lot on Nadal's mind, at this point.
On the women's side, both Belgians are in action tomorrow. Both matches should be interesting becaues of their contrast. Hard-hitting, baseliner Kim Clijsters takes on former doubles specialist and expert volleyer Sam Stosur, while all-court veteran Justine Henin takes on the 20-year old Dane Caroline Wozniacki. I like the Belgians in both matches, but they've shown that they're capable of lapses in focus over the course of the year.
I can say with some certainty that there won't be any Federer-level upsets from this point on; there aren't any players left whose departure would be that much of a surprise!
And then, Tomas Berdych produced the upset of the week. He was 1-8 going into this match against Roger Federer, and hadn't won since the Olympics in 2004. Everyone remembers the Czech's epic choke job against the Swiss in the 2009 Australian Open, when he he was up 2 sets to love, and had a point to break and go up 5-4 in the third, so he could serve for the match. He duffed a shot into the net, and from that point on, Federer's comeback never seemed to be in doubt.
Tonight, Berdych started slow, with Federer breaking him in the first game, but the big man stormed back to take the set 6-4 on the strength of two breaks. He was two points from the match in the second set, but ended up losing it in an error-filled tiebreak. The third set also went to a tiebreak, and Federer had match point on his own serve, which Berdych gamely saved with a few of his trademark massive forehands. Then Federer sailed a shot long and it was all over.
Huge, huge win for Berdych. His half of the draw is decimated, as he's eliminated the last real contender for the title. One of the four players left on his side is making it to the final - in addition to Berdych, there is Verdasco, Youzhny, and Soderling. Berdych is the only one who has made it past this stage at a Masters event (except for the Swede, who made the semis in Indian Wells last week) but for all the other players left, this is going to be uncharted territory. It's going to a hard-fought place in the finals, as all four of the remaining players know that they could have a shot at a Masters shield.
The bottom half of the draw is relatively tough, with three top-ten players remaining instead of only one. The only three-set match from the bottom half of the draw today was between Tomaz Bellucci and Nicolas Almagro. Almagro does seem to enjoy being the villain, as he relished in his role against the heavily pro-Brazilian crowd. He'll be even more of an antagonist against Roddick tomorrow, but if he can hit as well as he can, he might trouble the American.
Particularly if Roddick gets out of the gates going as slowly as he did against Becker today. I think that Andy was just late getting to the court, because he dropped serve in his first service game of the match, and saved three break point chances to keep himself from being down 1-5. After saving that, he decided to start playing, so he quickly broke back and ended up winning the set in a tiebreak. That set was nearly a lost cause, so credit Roddick for not giving up and thinking about winning in three. His opponent came off the blocks playing like Boris Becker, not Benjamin, but he couldn't keep up that pace.
The other two matches were slightly less interesting, as Tsonga just bludgeoned Juan Carlos Ferrero off the court and Nadal once again outplayed his good friend and fellow Spaniard David Ferrer on the big points. Lots of grinding, long rallies, few winners, and Nadal on top. About as one would expect. When they face each other, Nadal can expect Tsonga to come to net more often, and to go for his shots a lot more. It could be an entertaining match. After dismantling Nadal in the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2008, Tsonga has gone 0-3 against the Spaniard, but as Berdych demonstrated, those streaks aren't destiny.
Nadal is now the last of the big four remaining, just like last week. I know he'll want to take advantage of it, but he's going to want to start getting ready for the Clay court tournament in Monty Carlo, which is only a week and a half away at this point. That's his bread and butter, and he has a lot of points to defend in the clay court season. There's a lot on Nadal's mind, at this point.
On the women's side, both Belgians are in action tomorrow. Both matches should be interesting becaues of their contrast. Hard-hitting, baseliner Kim Clijsters takes on former doubles specialist and expert volleyer Sam Stosur, while all-court veteran Justine Henin takes on the 20-year old Dane Caroline Wozniacki. I like the Belgians in both matches, but they've shown that they're capable of lapses in focus over the course of the year.
I can say with some certainty that there won't be any Federer-level upsets from this point on; there aren't any players left whose departure would be that much of a surprise!
Monday, March 15, 2010
Indian Wells Weekend Wrap-up
We're into the third round at Indian Wells, and things are mostly going as expected. By that, I mean that there have been about as many surprising upsets as one usually finds in a tournament of this size. Three of the favorites on the women's side are already out - Justine Henin fell to Gisela Dulko, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova fell to Carla Suarez Navarro, and Maria Sharapova lost to Jie Zheng. At this point, it's likely that the semifinals could be Clijsters-Azarenka and Dementieva-Wozinacki.
In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.
There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.
David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.
Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.
In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.
Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.
John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.
I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.
In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.
There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.
David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.
Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.
In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.
Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.
John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.
I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Indian Wells Preview
Well, the qualifiers are over, and my predictions about the qualifiers were not quite the best. It just goes to show that anything can happen, and that anyone who pretends to be knowledgeable about these sorts of things really won't do that much (if any better) than chance, most of the time. That said, let's take a look at the main draw and see how far off I can be this time.
This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.
It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.
Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.
The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.
Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.
Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.
In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.
Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.
Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!
This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.
It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.
Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.
The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.
Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.
Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.
In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.
Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.
Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Finals Week 1 - Top Players Stumble!
As several of the first tournaments of the week have already been decided (two finals remain to be played), the most interesting thing about the outcomes is how two of the top players in the world seemed to have their victories firmly in-hand, only to let them slip away.
In the Hopman Cup, Andy Murray and Laura Robson were playing Spain for the championship. Before play started, it was easy to guess that Laura Robson would drop her singles match, but then Murray would win his and the pair would win their doubles point. That was how it had gone for most of the week. Laura Robson had lost all of her singles matches, while Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez had yet to drop a set. So when Robson came out on fire and beat Martinez Sanchez in straights, the victory for Great Britain was all but assured.
And then, Murray came out and took the first set from Tommy Robredo 6-1. Imagine the surprise and disappointment that Murray must have felt as he dropped the last two sets, and then proceeded to lose the mixed doubles in two as well. What seemed like a sure thing somehow managed to slip away, in a surprising loss for the Brit. Since this was his only warm-up to the Australian Open (I believe), it's unfortunate that he has to go in on that sort of a defeat.
Another player who isn't going to be thrilled with the result of his last match before the Australian Open was Rafael Nadal. He faced Nikolay Davydenko, who had beaten Federer in the semifinals, and took the first set from the Russian in imperious fashion, losing only one point on serve and breaking Davydenko there times. After that, the match started. The second set went to a tiebreak and Nadal had two match points, but Davydenko pulled it out 10-8. Nadal was then up a break in the decider, but Davydenko leveled and then took the match.
Davydenko becomes one of four people to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, and is riding the longest winning streak on tour. After years of leading the second tier of top players, he seems to have finally reached his proper place among the elite. After his win at the 2009 year end championships in London, and then this display in Doha, Nikolay has to be among the favorites in the Australian Open. There's no reason he can't win, if he can continue this run.
In Brisbane, there was another cracker of a match between Belgians Clijsters and Henin, which went to a third-set tiebreak. While Henin also had match points, Clijsters came out on top, just barely. Considering that this is her first match back after 20 months of retirement and Clijsters is the most recent slam winner on the WTA tour, this is an exciting omen for Henin's comeback. Unfortunately, she has withdrawn from next week's tournament in Sydney. Regardless, she's demonstrated that she's ready to make a run at the Aussie Open, and I'm no sure no one wants to see her in their section of the draw.
The other final in Brisbane will feature Radek Stepanek, who breezed passed a physically-uncomfortable Gael Monfils, and Andy Roddick, who had a much tougher time against Tomas Berdych. Despite having not dropped serve all week long, Roddick was broken in the first game of the match, and then again in the second. He lost the first set 6-1, while failing to convert on four break points.
In the second set, he tightened up his game, raising his first serve winning percentage from 50 to 76 and breaking one time in six tries. After evening the match, Roddick pulled himself together even further. In the final set, he won 82% of his first serve points and 86% on his second. He broke again, and managed to edge out a tough win in three.
In the final, we'll have to the battle of Radek versus Roddick, which is always exciting. They've played six times, with the American winning five, but Stepanek beat Roddick in a tough semifinal in San Jose last year. It should be an exciting match, and I know that Andy would like to get his first title in his first outing this season, but Stepanek is eager to complete his first successful title defense.
In Chennai, last year title-winner is also in the final again, facing Swiss number two Stanislas Wawrinka. Stan "the Man" is 4-0 against Cilic, but they haven't played since 2008, and he has matured a great deal in that time. It should be a fine match, as well.
One last note - Yanina Wickmayer has finished her successful rejoinder to her suspended suspension, by beating top seed Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. Also, that turns out to have been a fine use of a wildcard. The draws are out for next week's tournaments, and I hope to take a look at those tomorrow.
In the Hopman Cup, Andy Murray and Laura Robson were playing Spain for the championship. Before play started, it was easy to guess that Laura Robson would drop her singles match, but then Murray would win his and the pair would win their doubles point. That was how it had gone for most of the week. Laura Robson had lost all of her singles matches, while Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez had yet to drop a set. So when Robson came out on fire and beat Martinez Sanchez in straights, the victory for Great Britain was all but assured.
And then, Murray came out and took the first set from Tommy Robredo 6-1. Imagine the surprise and disappointment that Murray must have felt as he dropped the last two sets, and then proceeded to lose the mixed doubles in two as well. What seemed like a sure thing somehow managed to slip away, in a surprising loss for the Brit. Since this was his only warm-up to the Australian Open (I believe), it's unfortunate that he has to go in on that sort of a defeat.
Another player who isn't going to be thrilled with the result of his last match before the Australian Open was Rafael Nadal. He faced Nikolay Davydenko, who had beaten Federer in the semifinals, and took the first set from the Russian in imperious fashion, losing only one point on serve and breaking Davydenko there times. After that, the match started. The second set went to a tiebreak and Nadal had two match points, but Davydenko pulled it out 10-8. Nadal was then up a break in the decider, but Davydenko leveled and then took the match.
Davydenko becomes one of four people to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, and is riding the longest winning streak on tour. After years of leading the second tier of top players, he seems to have finally reached his proper place among the elite. After his win at the 2009 year end championships in London, and then this display in Doha, Nikolay has to be among the favorites in the Australian Open. There's no reason he can't win, if he can continue this run.
In Brisbane, there was another cracker of a match between Belgians Clijsters and Henin, which went to a third-set tiebreak. While Henin also had match points, Clijsters came out on top, just barely. Considering that this is her first match back after 20 months of retirement and Clijsters is the most recent slam winner on the WTA tour, this is an exciting omen for Henin's comeback. Unfortunately, she has withdrawn from next week's tournament in Sydney. Regardless, she's demonstrated that she's ready to make a run at the Aussie Open, and I'm no sure no one wants to see her in their section of the draw.
The other final in Brisbane will feature Radek Stepanek, who breezed passed a physically-uncomfortable Gael Monfils, and Andy Roddick, who had a much tougher time against Tomas Berdych. Despite having not dropped serve all week long, Roddick was broken in the first game of the match, and then again in the second. He lost the first set 6-1, while failing to convert on four break points.
In the second set, he tightened up his game, raising his first serve winning percentage from 50 to 76 and breaking one time in six tries. After evening the match, Roddick pulled himself together even further. In the final set, he won 82% of his first serve points and 86% on his second. He broke again, and managed to edge out a tough win in three.
In the final, we'll have to the battle of Radek versus Roddick, which is always exciting. They've played six times, with the American winning five, but Stepanek beat Roddick in a tough semifinal in San Jose last year. It should be an exciting match, and I know that Andy would like to get his first title in his first outing this season, but Stepanek is eager to complete his first successful title defense.
In Chennai, last year title-winner is also in the final again, facing Swiss number two Stanislas Wawrinka. Stan "the Man" is 4-0 against Cilic, but they haven't played since 2008, and he has matured a great deal in that time. It should be a fine match, as well.
One last note - Yanina Wickmayer has finished her successful rejoinder to her suspended suspension, by beating top seed Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. Also, that turns out to have been a fine use of a wildcard. The draws are out for next week's tournaments, and I hope to take a look at those tomorrow.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Davydenko on top - Semifinals Week 1
While Soderling's loss to Ginepri may have been the first big upset of the year, the first time the world number one loses is always an upset, just by definition. Federer's loss to Davydenko may have been less surprising, since the Russian just won their most recent meeting at the World Tour Finals at the end of last season, but it is a bit unexpected since Federer had a 12-0 record against him before that.
In the first set, Nikolay put 100% of his first serves into play. Twenty-seven out of twenty-seven, which is just an unbelievable statistic. Davydenko gets Nadal in the final, who breezed past Serbian Viktor Troicki. They also played at the last event in 2009, and Davydenko came out on top. Although I've been a doubter in the past, the Russian may finally be developing the confidence to really make a run to a grand slam title. If he handles Nadal as well as he took care of Federer, it'll definitely put him in contention at the Aussie Open.
The semifinals at all four events this week were all populated by top 5 seeds. In Doha, 4th seed Youzhny was missing. In Chennai, it was top seed Soderling. But in Brisbane, all four top seeds have made it this far. Berdych had his hands full with Tomaz Bellucci, but his experience got him through in three. That said, this was one of the best matches I've seen Bellucci play, and he was just points from victory. I think he has the potential to be a top-ten player.
The other quarter in Brisbane was billed as a tougher contest, but was actually less competitive. Roddick and Gasquet both played well in a match that featured tremendous serving, clutch volleying, and and superb shot-making from the back of the court, as well. But Roddick managed a break in the first set (needing eight chances to do so) and then secured the match in the second-set tiebreak. The Frenchman is playing well, but he has yet to return to his top form. Roddick will play Berdych in the semis, and the pair has a close head-to-head record. It should be a good match.
Also in Brisbane, the women's final has been decided, and it was the match-up that everyone was hoping for. Kim Clijsters will take on her compatriot Justine Henin, back to a final in her first tournament in nearly two years. They've played a great deal in the past, with Henin coming out on top more often than not, but you have to give the edge to Clijsters based solely on recent form.
There's a third Belgian woman in a final this week, amazingly. Yanina Wickmayer will face top-seeded Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. It's good to see her shaking off the minor drug scandal that could have proved to be quite a distraction at the end of last season.
In Chennai, Janko Tipsarevic, who has been frustrated by the success of his compatriot Djokovic (or at least his own relative lack of it) beat young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker, who has had an amazing run in his first tournament of the year. He'll playing defending champ Marin Cilic in the semis, for the privilege of playing the winner of Dudi Sela and Stan Wawrinka. It's tough to bet against a Wawrinka-Cilic final at this point, but as we've seen, upsets do happen.
In the first set, Nikolay put 100% of his first serves into play. Twenty-seven out of twenty-seven, which is just an unbelievable statistic. Davydenko gets Nadal in the final, who breezed past Serbian Viktor Troicki. They also played at the last event in 2009, and Davydenko came out on top. Although I've been a doubter in the past, the Russian may finally be developing the confidence to really make a run to a grand slam title. If he handles Nadal as well as he took care of Federer, it'll definitely put him in contention at the Aussie Open.
The semifinals at all four events this week were all populated by top 5 seeds. In Doha, 4th seed Youzhny was missing. In Chennai, it was top seed Soderling. But in Brisbane, all four top seeds have made it this far. Berdych had his hands full with Tomaz Bellucci, but his experience got him through in three. That said, this was one of the best matches I've seen Bellucci play, and he was just points from victory. I think he has the potential to be a top-ten player.
The other quarter in Brisbane was billed as a tougher contest, but was actually less competitive. Roddick and Gasquet both played well in a match that featured tremendous serving, clutch volleying, and and superb shot-making from the back of the court, as well. But Roddick managed a break in the first set (needing eight chances to do so) and then secured the match in the second-set tiebreak. The Frenchman is playing well, but he has yet to return to his top form. Roddick will play Berdych in the semis, and the pair has a close head-to-head record. It should be a good match.
Also in Brisbane, the women's final has been decided, and it was the match-up that everyone was hoping for. Kim Clijsters will take on her compatriot Justine Henin, back to a final in her first tournament in nearly two years. They've played a great deal in the past, with Henin coming out on top more often than not, but you have to give the edge to Clijsters based solely on recent form.
There's a third Belgian woman in a final this week, amazingly. Yanina Wickmayer will face top-seeded Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. It's good to see her shaking off the minor drug scandal that could have proved to be quite a distraction at the end of last season.
In Chennai, Janko Tipsarevic, who has been frustrated by the success of his compatriot Djokovic (or at least his own relative lack of it) beat young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker, who has had an amazing run in his first tournament of the year. He'll playing defending champ Marin Cilic in the semis, for the privilege of playing the winner of Dudi Sela and Stan Wawrinka. It's tough to bet against a Wawrinka-Cilic final at this point, but as we've seen, upsets do happen.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
4th Round at Wimbledon 2009
The best day in Tennis: the rounds of 32 at the All-England Club. All of the remaining 64 men and women will be in action after a day off on the middle Sunday. Since the first week didn't present us with too many big upsets, we start off the business end of the tournament with some excellent matches.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
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