So the French Open is now done and dusted. Now that it's over, it almost seems like the outcome was never in doubt. Nadal won the tournament for the fifth time - and for the second time without losing a set in 7 matches. Soderling could not maintain the level of play he had last year when he beat Nadal or this year when he beat Federer. It may have been the pressure of the moment, but Nadal never had to find his top gear to win comfortably. If Soderling could play at that level more consistently, there's no reason he couldn't be in the very top tier of players on tour, but he can't. He hasn't shown the ability to in the past, and I don't expect he ever will.
But he's still an amazing player and should be in the top ten for several more years, assuming he avoids injury. I just don't see him winning a grand slam any time soon until he can work on his consistency.
As for Nadal, order is restored. He demolished the field and showed that he is healthy. He played a smarter clay court season, and maintained his health through it all as a result. Nobody had won all three clay masters tournaments and the French Open before, so that's another record Nadal owns. His prowess on the surface is almost difficult to believe. Tomorrow, when the rankings are out, I should have more to say on that. But for now, let's see how well he adjusts to the grass season, which starts this week and ends in a month.
The two tournaments taking place this week are in London (which I will refer to as Queens Club in the tags for this post, to distinguish it from London's year end championships) and in Halle, Germany. Both tournaments are fairly well stacked, since this is the only lead-up to Wimbledon, except for the (relatively few) players who don't want to take next week off. Soderling is - understandably - sitting the week our, and Del Potro is still injured. Tsonga and Verdasco are also sitting out, but everyone else in the top ten is in action.
The tournaments are actually very lopsided. Federer and Davydenko are in Halle, while Nadal, Murray, Djokovic, and Roddick are all at Queens Club. I'll take a look at Halle first, since it should go quicker.
In Halle, Federer is the top seed and massive favorite. The player who beat him here last year, Tommy Haas, is not in the draw, and only two other people have ever beaten Federer in his eight appearances here. Pat Rafter obviously won't be showing, and even though Nicolas Kiefer got a wildcard, he isn't playing at the level he had reached back in 2003. Federer does have a moderately difficult opener, against the Finn Jarkko Nieminen, but he has been struggling with getting his game back together after missing most of last year with injury. After that, Federer could get Kohlschreiber, Stepanek, Rochus, or Chiudinelli in the third round, which is a pretty tough part of the draw. His opponent in the semifinals will likely be Marcos Baghdatis or Juan Carlos Ferrero, but Jeremy Chardy and Viktor Troicki are potential darkhorses in that section.
The other half of the draw also has tough customers. In addition to second seed Davydenko, Jurgen Melzer is here, whose net-rushing strategy should serve him well on grass. And despite the fact that he's a four-time champion at Queens, Lleyton Hewitt is here. He has a tough opener against fellow Aussie Peter Luczak. The other players to watch in that half of the draw are Mikhail Youzhny, the afore-mentioned Nicolas Kiefer, and Thiemo De Bakker, who prefers clay, but should be able to adapt his game for grass, eventually. Look for some more exciting matches starting in the third round.
Queens is a bigger tournament, so the top eight seeds get first-round byes. Nadal is - of course - the top seed here, and he was the champion back in 2008. Murray won here last year, and he ended up in Nadal's half of the draw. The other two top seeds are Djokovic and Roddick, who get the other half.
Nadal really got a cupcake of a draw, which he deserves after winning in Paris, and I would be shocked if anyone beat him before the semifinals. The other seeds in his section are Denis Istomin, Julien Benneteau, and Feliciano Lopez, who is actually the best grass-courter of the bunch. Other than that, he has the Canadian number one and the Jamaican number one in his quarter, and they play each other in the first round! I like both of those players (Dancevic and Brown) but I don't think they're ever going to be top-level guys. Taylor Dent is there, and I'm sure he's thrilled that the grass-court season is finally underway. And in one of the first-round matches I'm most excited about, Grigor Dimitrov (one of the excellent wildcards the tournament gave out) plays British qualifier Bogdanovic. Still, I don't see anyone getting to Nadal out of that group.
Murray's quarter is not a lot tougher, at least until the quarterfinal. The only other contender in this section is Marin Cilic, as the other seeded players are Giraldo and Llodra. Murray-Cilic would be a good match in the quarters, but the other players in the way are less likely to pose as threats. Mardy Fish is there, as well as one of the other great wildcards, Ryan Harrison, who opens against another American, Jesse Levine. Frenchman Nicolas Mahut also really likes grass, and Mardy Fish could do well here. It's no guarantee that Murray will come through, but he's definitely the favorite.
Andy Roddick, in the third quarter, has won this tournament four times. He'll have his hands full trying to get a fifth win, though. His quarter has some tricky customers, as well as the best opening round match: Kei Nishikori against Richard Gasquet. That should be fun to see. That section also has Dudi Sela and Gael Monfils, who I hope is injury-free. I see Roddick making it through to the quarters for sure, though. He may not be exactly match-tough, considering how little he's played in the last few months, but he's one of the best grass-court players of this generation, so he's going to be happy to be back on the surface.
I'm not sure what to expect from Novak Djokovic, the second seed and top player in his quarter of the draw. The way he bowed at the French Open was really discouraging. He just hasn't been the same this year since the first round of the Davis Cup. His section of the draw has some potentially tricky players, but he should be able to make it through to the quarters. Sam Querrey would be his opponent there, and I'm hoping that Sam has gotten his focus back after some time at home. Djokovic could also have to go through Janko Tipsarevic and Andreas Seppi, the other seeds. That section also has Robbie Ginepri, Michael Russell, Dmitry Tursunov, and the third excellent wildcard recipient, Bernard Tomic. It should be Querrey-Djokovic in the quarters, all the same.
It's always fun to see the transition from clay to grass. It's so sudden, and the reactions are so varied. Some players are absolutely thrilled, while others wish the clay season lasted all year. The contrast in playing styles and effective strategies gets drawn into sharp relief, and it's another of my favorite moments in the tennis calendar.
Showing posts with label frenchopen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label frenchopen. Show all posts
Monday, June 7, 2010
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Women's Final Wrap-up and Men's Final Preview
The women's final was something of a letdown. I think it's fair to say that Sam Stosur was overwhelmed by the occasion. Her forehand was not on at all. That shot was hitting winner after winner in her matches against Henin, Williams, and Jankovic, and when she tried to hit through it today, she couldn't keep it in the court. She wasn't serving as well as she had been, either. And the real killer was that she couldn't volley to save her life. Stosur, who used to be a doubles specialist, was incredibly heavy-handed at net.
On the other hand, Schiavone absolute rose to the occasion. She played as well as she had all week, and it was more than enough to handle a very tight Sam Stosur. Kudos to the Italian, who pulled off an amazing run this week. This is probably the most surprising Grand Slam winner on either the men's or women's side in many years. Schiavone played amazingly in Fed Cup last year, but her performance in the Grand Slams had been mostly unremarkable. Prior to this, she'd made only three quarterfinals since 2000. Really great win for the veteran player, and she no doubt deserved it.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's final between Robin Soderling and Rafael Nadal - it's probably the most exciting final which wasn't between Federer and Nadal in the better part of a decade. Nadal leads the head to head 3-2, including a fairly one-sided match at Roland Garros in 2006, an animosity-fueled Wimbledon match in 2007, and a brutal drubbing at a Masters event on clay in 2009. But Soderling has won the last two, including last year's stunning upset at the French Open, which Soderling followed up with a very one-sided victory at the year-end championships.
Nadal says that this isn't about revenge, and that may be true. But if there's any player that a guy as mellow and friendly as Nadal might bear some ill-will against, it would be Soderling. Here's my impression of how the match will play out. If Soderling plays as well as he did against Federer, Nadal will have to play his best tennis - a level of tennis he hasn't really shown so far this fortnight - in order to win. But if both players play as well as they did in their semifinal matches, Nadal will win. If both players are firing on all cylinders, Nadal's going to win. Soderling has shown some amazing skill here at Roland Garros, but when he beat Nadal, the Spaniard wasn't at his best.
And it's worth repeating how much is riding on this match. If Nadal wins, he gets back to number one in the world, bumping Federer to number two while the Swiss is just one week shy of matching Pete Sampras's record for weeks at the number one ranking. And since Nadal has almost no points to defend over the course of the summer - it would be difficult for Federer to get that ranking back for the foreseeable future. It also would mark the end of Federer's streak of either winning a tournament or losing to the eventual winner. So there is a great deal at stake tomorrow involving players who aren't even setting foot on court.
I think that Soderling will come to play tomorrow. He wasn't really in the final last year at any point, and I think that was all due to his attitude. But I expect that - since he's been to a final before, he'll be more able to adapt to the situation. He'll be fired up, but not nervous. I like to think that the Swede has ice in his veins. On the other hand, Nadal is going to incredibly eager. He knows that Soderling is a threat, unlike Melzer was in the semifinals. And I think Nadal benefited from a relatively easy semifinal match, where Soderling had to toil on court for five sets.
I think that this match could go either way, but Soderling will have to play at an incredibly high level for a very long time in order to beat Nadal. He won't have as easy a time of it as he did last year, even if he plays that well. I'm really looking forward it, to see how the players handle the pressure.
On the other hand, Schiavone absolute rose to the occasion. She played as well as she had all week, and it was more than enough to handle a very tight Sam Stosur. Kudos to the Italian, who pulled off an amazing run this week. This is probably the most surprising Grand Slam winner on either the men's or women's side in many years. Schiavone played amazingly in Fed Cup last year, but her performance in the Grand Slams had been mostly unremarkable. Prior to this, she'd made only three quarterfinals since 2000. Really great win for the veteran player, and she no doubt deserved it.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's final between Robin Soderling and Rafael Nadal - it's probably the most exciting final which wasn't between Federer and Nadal in the better part of a decade. Nadal leads the head to head 3-2, including a fairly one-sided match at Roland Garros in 2006, an animosity-fueled Wimbledon match in 2007, and a brutal drubbing at a Masters event on clay in 2009. But Soderling has won the last two, including last year's stunning upset at the French Open, which Soderling followed up with a very one-sided victory at the year-end championships.
Nadal says that this isn't about revenge, and that may be true. But if there's any player that a guy as mellow and friendly as Nadal might bear some ill-will against, it would be Soderling. Here's my impression of how the match will play out. If Soderling plays as well as he did against Federer, Nadal will have to play his best tennis - a level of tennis he hasn't really shown so far this fortnight - in order to win. But if both players play as well as they did in their semifinal matches, Nadal will win. If both players are firing on all cylinders, Nadal's going to win. Soderling has shown some amazing skill here at Roland Garros, but when he beat Nadal, the Spaniard wasn't at his best.
And it's worth repeating how much is riding on this match. If Nadal wins, he gets back to number one in the world, bumping Federer to number two while the Swiss is just one week shy of matching Pete Sampras's record for weeks at the number one ranking. And since Nadal has almost no points to defend over the course of the summer - it would be difficult for Federer to get that ranking back for the foreseeable future. It also would mark the end of Federer's streak of either winning a tournament or losing to the eventual winner. So there is a great deal at stake tomorrow involving players who aren't even setting foot on court.
I think that Soderling will come to play tomorrow. He wasn't really in the final last year at any point, and I think that was all due to his attitude. But I expect that - since he's been to a final before, he'll be more able to adapt to the situation. He'll be fired up, but not nervous. I like to think that the Swede has ice in his veins. On the other hand, Nadal is going to incredibly eager. He knows that Soderling is a threat, unlike Melzer was in the semifinals. And I think Nadal benefited from a relatively easy semifinal match, where Soderling had to toil on court for five sets.
I think that this match could go either way, but Soderling will have to play at an incredibly high level for a very long time in order to beat Nadal. He won't have as easy a time of it as he did last year, even if he plays that well. I'm really looking forward it, to see how the players handle the pressure.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Semifinals Complete
The lineup for both the men's and women's finals has been determined. The men's semifinals, which both took place today, went about as expected. It was a great pair of matches, even though the results were just about what one might have expected, going in.
The closer of the two matches was definitely Berdych-Soderling. It was five sets of big-hitting tennis, with some really strong shot-making by both players. Soderling started out on fire, playing at a similar level to the one he maintained against Roger Federer. Berdych couldn't quite hang with him, and he managed to break him once and win the set. But after that, it was Soderling's level that dipped in the next two sets, and Berdych was able to go up by two sets to one. At that point, the old Berdych we were so familiar with showed his face. On the verge of making his first grand slam final, he got tight. Meanwhile, Soderling found his game again - he never quite got back to the level he played against Federer again, but it was more than enough to handle the somewhat shaky Czech. When all was said and done, he got through to his second consecutive French Open final in five sets.
Nadal's match had significantly fewer twists and turns. He was in command from the word go, and it looked like he was going to have an exceptionally straightforward win until he seemed to start hot-dogging just a little bit at the end of the third set. He was going for unreasonably tough shots, possibly trying to give the French fans more of a show. He ended up getting broken while serving for a spot in the finals, when Melzer started playing his best tennis of the entire match. He broke, and got up an early mini-break in the tiebreak. But in the end, Rafa restored order and ended up winning in three, as expected.
So really, a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final is almost as exciting as Federer-Nadal. While Roger and Rafa have immense respect for each other on and off the court, I believe it to the case that Rafa and Robin actively dislike each other. Nadal will be looking for some revenge, no doubt. More on that match-up tomorrow.
The women's final is tomorrow as well, and that features an extremely surprising pair of finalists. Sam Stosur and Francesca Schiavone should be an interesting match, even if it doesn't have the star power of some recent finals. I expect that Stosur will overpower the crafty and versatile Italian, but Schiavone also could be a better big-match player than the Aussie. Schiavone seems to thrive on playing to the crowd, as she demonstrated earlier in the week by dropping to her feet and kissing the clay after one of her wins. She may have the crowd behind her, but it probably won't be enough to blunt the power of Sam Stosur. It would be one of the greatest surprise wins and culminations of a crazy two weeks of tennis that we've seen in years on either the men's or women's side.
The closer of the two matches was definitely Berdych-Soderling. It was five sets of big-hitting tennis, with some really strong shot-making by both players. Soderling started out on fire, playing at a similar level to the one he maintained against Roger Federer. Berdych couldn't quite hang with him, and he managed to break him once and win the set. But after that, it was Soderling's level that dipped in the next two sets, and Berdych was able to go up by two sets to one. At that point, the old Berdych we were so familiar with showed his face. On the verge of making his first grand slam final, he got tight. Meanwhile, Soderling found his game again - he never quite got back to the level he played against Federer again, but it was more than enough to handle the somewhat shaky Czech. When all was said and done, he got through to his second consecutive French Open final in five sets.
Nadal's match had significantly fewer twists and turns. He was in command from the word go, and it looked like he was going to have an exceptionally straightforward win until he seemed to start hot-dogging just a little bit at the end of the third set. He was going for unreasonably tough shots, possibly trying to give the French fans more of a show. He ended up getting broken while serving for a spot in the finals, when Melzer started playing his best tennis of the entire match. He broke, and got up an early mini-break in the tiebreak. But in the end, Rafa restored order and ended up winning in three, as expected.
So really, a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final is almost as exciting as Federer-Nadal. While Roger and Rafa have immense respect for each other on and off the court, I believe it to the case that Rafa and Robin actively dislike each other. Nadal will be looking for some revenge, no doubt. More on that match-up tomorrow.
The women's final is tomorrow as well, and that features an extremely surprising pair of finalists. Sam Stosur and Francesca Schiavone should be an interesting match, even if it doesn't have the star power of some recent finals. I expect that Stosur will overpower the crafty and versatile Italian, but Schiavone also could be a better big-match player than the Aussie. Schiavone seems to thrive on playing to the crowd, as she demonstrated earlier in the week by dropping to her feet and kissing the clay after one of her wins. She may have the crowd behind her, but it probably won't be enough to blunt the power of Sam Stosur. It would be one of the greatest surprise wins and culminations of a crazy two weeks of tennis that we've seen in years on either the men's or women's side.
Friday, June 4, 2010
French Open Semifnals
Well, the women's semifinals are complete, and they were a bit anti-climactic. Dementieva was troubled with some sort of injury, and despite holding tough for a whole set, which she lost in a tiebreak, she was forced to retire without playing through the rest of the match. It's always a shame to be struggling with an injury at such an important stage. And apparently the shortened match had some effect on Jelena Jankovic's preparation, because she was not able to get up for her match against Sam Stosur. Both of the favorites lost in the semis, so it's a very surprising final pairing: two first-time finalists in Australian Sam Stosur and Italian Francesca Schiavone. Anybody who had those two in their bracket gets kudos from me.
Here's hoping that the men's semifinals, taking place tomorrow, are a bit more exciting. I'll put my money on the fact that they will be.
The first match features Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling, two really big-hitting guys. Soderling leads the head to head 5-3, and they're 1-1 on clay. It's also worth noting that Berdych won their last meeting, earlier this year, by the score of 6-2, 6-2. Both players have been blowing their opponents off the court up to this point in the tournament. Soderling has dropped two sets to Berdych's zero, but Soderling has faced the stiffer competition, not least of which was his win over Federer in the quarterfinals. I think the way Soderling reacts to that win will determine the outcome of this match, in large part: if Soderling is satisfied with getting that win, Berdych will probably be able to beat him tomorrow. But if he's inspired by it, then I give him the edge. It's an exciting pairing - look for plenty of big hitting, but not a lot of long rallies. Soderling really should have the advantage, as he can move and defend better, while he can hit just as big.
I'll be surprised if the second semifinal is as competitive. Credit to Jurgen Melzer for making it this far, but his Cindarella story ends here. Melzer has only played Nadal twice, and in those four sets he's won a total of eight games. Nadal is now the only slam winner left in the field, and he's the sort of player who will take that as a chance to get more focused, rather than letting his focus drop. He wants his French Open title back, and he has a really good chance to get it back. It would be fascinating to see a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final.
But first, both of them have to win. I think there's a chance that Nadal will find Tomas Berdych on the other side of the net, but I'd be shocked if either Soderling or Berdych gets Melzer. I think it would take a pretty major injury to Nadal for him to lose to Jurgen. Fingers crossed that won't happen.
Here's hoping that the men's semifinals, taking place tomorrow, are a bit more exciting. I'll put my money on the fact that they will be.
The first match features Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling, two really big-hitting guys. Soderling leads the head to head 5-3, and they're 1-1 on clay. It's also worth noting that Berdych won their last meeting, earlier this year, by the score of 6-2, 6-2. Both players have been blowing their opponents off the court up to this point in the tournament. Soderling has dropped two sets to Berdych's zero, but Soderling has faced the stiffer competition, not least of which was his win over Federer in the quarterfinals. I think the way Soderling reacts to that win will determine the outcome of this match, in large part: if Soderling is satisfied with getting that win, Berdych will probably be able to beat him tomorrow. But if he's inspired by it, then I give him the edge. It's an exciting pairing - look for plenty of big hitting, but not a lot of long rallies. Soderling really should have the advantage, as he can move and defend better, while he can hit just as big.
I'll be surprised if the second semifinal is as competitive. Credit to Jurgen Melzer for making it this far, but his Cindarella story ends here. Melzer has only played Nadal twice, and in those four sets he's won a total of eight games. Nadal is now the only slam winner left in the field, and he's the sort of player who will take that as a chance to get more focused, rather than letting his focus drop. He wants his French Open title back, and he has a really good chance to get it back. It would be fascinating to see a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final.
But first, both of them have to win. I think there's a chance that Nadal will find Tomas Berdych on the other side of the net, but I'd be shocked if either Soderling or Berdych gets Melzer. I think it would take a pretty major injury to Nadal for him to lose to Jurgen. Fingers crossed that won't happen.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
French Open Quarterfinals Day 2
In today's quarterfinals, there were two upsets and two matches that went just about as expected. The straightforward matches were Rafael Nadal's and Jelena Jankovic's. Both defeated their opponents without a great deal of fuss, but they were tight and entertaining matches. Just what you expect to see from a quarterfinal.
The other two matches were really something to see. Djokovic won the first two sets and then somehow managed to lose the plot. He ended up losing the match, and overall, it was an uneven performance from the world number three. Unfortunately, he ended up with a very lackluster effort in the last couple of sets, unable to keep himself together. A really impressive fightback from Jurgen Melzer, though. He may have gotten some help from Djokovic, but it was still a good showing from the tour veteran who had never made it past the third round at a major before this tournament.
Serena Williams also lost to Sam Stosur in a strange, topsy-turvy match. Stosur served for the match in the second set, only to lose her nerve, get broken, and lose the set in a tiebreak. At that point, she looked more solid than her opponent and had to have been the favorite to win the match. But somehow, Stosur got her head back on straight, saved a match point in the third set, and ended up winning. Serena looked a bit off from the first ball, but she usually has a way of working through matches like that, anyway. Kudos to Stosur for recovering from some momentarily lapses in focus.
Tomorrow, the women's semifinals are taking place. The one thing that we know for sure is that whoever goes on to win the tournament will be a first-time grand slam winner. The only players remaining have yet to win a title. Jankovic and Dementieva have made it to a final, but Schiavone and Stosur have not. I really think that anybody could come away with the title on Saturday. I lean towards Jankovic and Dementieva to win tomorrow, but that depends mostly on their experience at this stage, rather than on their form. It should be interesting to see - the last time that a player won a grand slam for the first time was when Ivanovic won the French Open here two years ago. It'll be good to add some new blood to that club - at least on the women's side.
The other two matches were really something to see. Djokovic won the first two sets and then somehow managed to lose the plot. He ended up losing the match, and overall, it was an uneven performance from the world number three. Unfortunately, he ended up with a very lackluster effort in the last couple of sets, unable to keep himself together. A really impressive fightback from Jurgen Melzer, though. He may have gotten some help from Djokovic, but it was still a good showing from the tour veteran who had never made it past the third round at a major before this tournament.
Serena Williams also lost to Sam Stosur in a strange, topsy-turvy match. Stosur served for the match in the second set, only to lose her nerve, get broken, and lose the set in a tiebreak. At that point, she looked more solid than her opponent and had to have been the favorite to win the match. But somehow, Stosur got her head back on straight, saved a match point in the third set, and ended up winning. Serena looked a bit off from the first ball, but she usually has a way of working through matches like that, anyway. Kudos to Stosur for recovering from some momentarily lapses in focus.
Tomorrow, the women's semifinals are taking place. The one thing that we know for sure is that whoever goes on to win the tournament will be a first-time grand slam winner. The only players remaining have yet to win a title. Jankovic and Dementieva have made it to a final, but Schiavone and Stosur have not. I really think that anybody could come away with the title on Saturday. I lean towards Jankovic and Dementieva to win tomorrow, but that depends mostly on their experience at this stage, rather than on their form. It should be interesting to see - the last time that a player won a grand slam for the first time was when Ivanovic won the French Open here two years ago. It'll be good to add some new blood to that club - at least on the women's side.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
French Open Quarterfinal Shocker
Amazingly, Roger Federer lost to Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals today. He lost pretty handily, as well. Soderling dropped the first set, but for the remaining three, he rarely let go of control. He was down a break early in the fourth, but he immediately broke back. This puts Federer's record of weeks at the world number one ranking potentially in jeopardy, ends his streak of consecutive grand slam semifinals, could theoretically end his streak of not losing to anyone outside the top or anyone who doesn't go on to win the tournament in a grand slam.
That would actually be interesting - if Soderling makes it to the final to face Nadal, he could ensure that Federer breaks Pete Sampras's record of weeks at number one, but only if he upsets the Spaniard in a second consecutive year and wins the tournament. Still a long ways to go until that happens, though.
The match was extremely high quality from both guys. Federer wasn't allowed to hit quite as many amazing shots as he likes to because Soderling was the one dictating play. He was demolishing his groundstrokes off both sides, and it was all Federer could do to get them back into play. It's the same way that Juan Martin Del Potro beat him in the final of the U.S. Open last year.
You don't often get the chance to say this, but the match swung completely on a single point. At one set all, Soderling was serving down 4-5, to stay in the set. He gets down a break point and after a powerful shot, Federer manages a weak, likely mis-hit reply that just gets over the net. Soderling runs to the forecourt and smacks the ball - a half-smash that has him careful not to stumble and hit the net. The ball soars into the air, and almost certainly looks like a winner. Against any other player, it probably would have been. But Federer dashes out, gets probably eight feet wide of the doubles alley, then jumps, balletic, into the air. He sideswings his racket like he was hitting a kickserve and gets the ball at the height of his swing. It must have been ten or twelve feet off the ground, sending it knifing back into court.
Soderling would have been forgiven if he had turned his back to the net and stalked back to the baseline. He nearly did. But when he saw Federer moving sideways to get that ball, he got back on the balls of his feet and waited to see what he could come up with. His heart must jumped into his throat when he saw the shot that was coming - this is not a shot that you can practice, because this is not a shot that you ever see. A slice smash from a position in the court that no one ever sets foot? It looked like the ball was going to sail over Soderling's left shoulder and drop down into play. Since the shot had such unusual spin, it was tough to know how it was moving through the air and Soderling did not have much time to figure it out.
The Swede responds by jumping up himself and going for a one-handed backhand overhead volley - one of the hardest and most awkward shots in the game for a player with a two-handed backhand to pull off. Since the ball was coming off Federer's racket with such unusual spin, it was difficult to determine how it was moving through the air, and he didn't have much time to figure it out. He threw his racket up and caught the ball, partially off his frame, sending it dribbling back into the open court. Since Federer was by now practically in the luxury boxes in the first row, he couldn't make a play on it.
If Federer had gotten that shot, not only would he have been up two sets to one, but he would demonstrated, as he almost always does, that he is the man. That he will hit shots that you can't even see coming, much less deal with. He would have broken Soderling's spirit, as well as his serve. The Swede's shot was, in fact, somewhat reminiscent of the high backhand overhead that Andy Roddick sent sailing wide in the Wimbledon final last year. Roddick missed, lost the set, and eventually lost the match.
Soderling managed to pull it off - both that difficult shot and the even more difficult victory. For his first time in 13 meetings, he's beaten Roger Federer. The question is whether or not he can build on this victory, or if he'll be sufficiently satisfied - or drained - from that match to let his level of play drop. Last year, he was just happy to be in the finals. This year, maybe he'll want to go a step further.
He'll face Tomas Berdych, who breezed past Mikahil Youzhny in a match that was much more straightforward. The big-hitting Czech might finally be making good on all the talent he's shown himself to possess since upsetting Federer at the 2004 Olympics. But he'll have to bet by Soderling in the semis.
Looking ahead to the second pair of quarterfinal matches on the men's side, it seems almost a sure thing to me that we'll have a Nadal-Djokovic semifinal. I don't expect that Melzer or Almagro can pull off the upset. But I didn't give Soderling a chance, either. We'll just have to see what happens.
On the women's side, I see Jankovic getting past Shvedova, but the Williams-Stosur match is quite an appetizing one. After Stosur got past Justine Henin, she should be brimming with confidence. Could she upset the top seed? As we've seen today, anything can happen.
That would actually be interesting - if Soderling makes it to the final to face Nadal, he could ensure that Federer breaks Pete Sampras's record of weeks at number one, but only if he upsets the Spaniard in a second consecutive year and wins the tournament. Still a long ways to go until that happens, though.
The match was extremely high quality from both guys. Federer wasn't allowed to hit quite as many amazing shots as he likes to because Soderling was the one dictating play. He was demolishing his groundstrokes off both sides, and it was all Federer could do to get them back into play. It's the same way that Juan Martin Del Potro beat him in the final of the U.S. Open last year.
You don't often get the chance to say this, but the match swung completely on a single point. At one set all, Soderling was serving down 4-5, to stay in the set. He gets down a break point and after a powerful shot, Federer manages a weak, likely mis-hit reply that just gets over the net. Soderling runs to the forecourt and smacks the ball - a half-smash that has him careful not to stumble and hit the net. The ball soars into the air, and almost certainly looks like a winner. Against any other player, it probably would have been. But Federer dashes out, gets probably eight feet wide of the doubles alley, then jumps, balletic, into the air. He sideswings his racket like he was hitting a kickserve and gets the ball at the height of his swing. It must have been ten or twelve feet off the ground, sending it knifing back into court.
Soderling would have been forgiven if he had turned his back to the net and stalked back to the baseline. He nearly did. But when he saw Federer moving sideways to get that ball, he got back on the balls of his feet and waited to see what he could come up with. His heart must jumped into his throat when he saw the shot that was coming - this is not a shot that you can practice, because this is not a shot that you ever see. A slice smash from a position in the court that no one ever sets foot? It looked like the ball was going to sail over Soderling's left shoulder and drop down into play. Since the shot had such unusual spin, it was tough to know how it was moving through the air and Soderling did not have much time to figure it out.
The Swede responds by jumping up himself and going for a one-handed backhand overhead volley - one of the hardest and most awkward shots in the game for a player with a two-handed backhand to pull off. Since the ball was coming off Federer's racket with such unusual spin, it was difficult to determine how it was moving through the air, and he didn't have much time to figure it out. He threw his racket up and caught the ball, partially off his frame, sending it dribbling back into the open court. Since Federer was by now practically in the luxury boxes in the first row, he couldn't make a play on it.
If Federer had gotten that shot, not only would he have been up two sets to one, but he would demonstrated, as he almost always does, that he is the man. That he will hit shots that you can't even see coming, much less deal with. He would have broken Soderling's spirit, as well as his serve. The Swede's shot was, in fact, somewhat reminiscent of the high backhand overhead that Andy Roddick sent sailing wide in the Wimbledon final last year. Roddick missed, lost the set, and eventually lost the match.
Soderling managed to pull it off - both that difficult shot and the even more difficult victory. For his first time in 13 meetings, he's beaten Roger Federer. The question is whether or not he can build on this victory, or if he'll be sufficiently satisfied - or drained - from that match to let his level of play drop. Last year, he was just happy to be in the finals. This year, maybe he'll want to go a step further.
He'll face Tomas Berdych, who breezed past Mikahil Youzhny in a match that was much more straightforward. The big-hitting Czech might finally be making good on all the talent he's shown himself to possess since upsetting Federer at the 2004 Olympics. But he'll have to bet by Soderling in the semis.
Looking ahead to the second pair of quarterfinal matches on the men's side, it seems almost a sure thing to me that we'll have a Nadal-Djokovic semifinal. I don't expect that Melzer or Almagro can pull off the upset. But I didn't give Soderling a chance, either. We'll just have to see what happens.
On the women's side, I see Jankovic getting past Shvedova, but the Williams-Stosur match is quite an appetizing one. After Stosur got past Justine Henin, she should be brimming with confidence. Could she upset the top seed? As we've seen today, anything can happen.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
French Open 9
The second day of the fourth round is over, and even though it was a bit more exciting than the first day, it still pretty much unfolded about as one would expect. Nadal and Djokovic won in fairly straightforward matches, qualifier Gabashvili's run came to an end against Jurgen Melzer, and Fernando Verdasco was too exhausted to put up much fight against Nicolas Almagro.
The women's side was moderately more exciting, as Justine Henin lost to Sam Stosur. She just fell apart at the end of the match, making all kinds of unforced errors in the last two games. It's a shame for her first loss at RG since 2004 to come this way, but she really wasn't at her best. Jelena Jankovic and Serena Williams won, as did Shvedova, but there's not too much to say about those matches. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the first day of the quarterfinals gets underway. There are four good matches on deck.
Robin Soderling v. Roger Federer - This is the match that determines whether or not Roger Federer will stay number one after the French Open, long enough to replace Pete Sampras for the most weeks at number one. If he wins this match and makes it to the semis, then he'll make it. And fortunately for him, his opponent is somebody he's won against 12 times, including in the finals here, last year. Robin Soderling, I'm sorry to say, has almost no chance against Federer - he'll need to believe he can win, which he hasn't done in any of the matches I've seen the Swede play against the Swiss. He was happy to make it to the final last year, and maybe he'll be happy to have made it to the quarters this year. I hope he puts up a fight - if he plays as well as he did against in the three rounds before the final last year, he has a chance. But he has to believe he can win, first.
The other match on the men's side is about the exact opposite - Youzhny leads 6-4 against Berdych. They're both solid players, and even though Berdych has more talent, Youzhny has better grand slam results. He's made the semis at a grand slam before, while this is Berdych's first trip to the quarters. That said, this is a tough one to call. It should be a fun match, in any case.
On the women's side, Schiavone plays Wozniacki and Dementieva plays Petrova. I think both matches could go either way, again. Wozniacki seems to be exhausted and perhaps a bit injured, while Shiavone is a solid player. Dementieva and Petrova is another good match - Petrova is a bigger hitter than Dementieva, but Dementieva is such a good returner, it should be an interesting contrast in styles.
So three out of four matches are something of a toss-up. The other one would need a spectacular performance from Soderling in order for Federer to be in any trouble. Based on the way the rest of the tournament has been going, it'll be a bit of a shock if that sort of upset happens. But - that is why we play the tennis.
The women's side was moderately more exciting, as Justine Henin lost to Sam Stosur. She just fell apart at the end of the match, making all kinds of unforced errors in the last two games. It's a shame for her first loss at RG since 2004 to come this way, but she really wasn't at her best. Jelena Jankovic and Serena Williams won, as did Shvedova, but there's not too much to say about those matches. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the first day of the quarterfinals gets underway. There are four good matches on deck.
Robin Soderling v. Roger Federer - This is the match that determines whether or not Roger Federer will stay number one after the French Open, long enough to replace Pete Sampras for the most weeks at number one. If he wins this match and makes it to the semis, then he'll make it. And fortunately for him, his opponent is somebody he's won against 12 times, including in the finals here, last year. Robin Soderling, I'm sorry to say, has almost no chance against Federer - he'll need to believe he can win, which he hasn't done in any of the matches I've seen the Swede play against the Swiss. He was happy to make it to the final last year, and maybe he'll be happy to have made it to the quarters this year. I hope he puts up a fight - if he plays as well as he did against in the three rounds before the final last year, he has a chance. But he has to believe he can win, first.
The other match on the men's side is about the exact opposite - Youzhny leads 6-4 against Berdych. They're both solid players, and even though Berdych has more talent, Youzhny has better grand slam results. He's made the semis at a grand slam before, while this is Berdych's first trip to the quarters. That said, this is a tough one to call. It should be a fun match, in any case.
On the women's side, Schiavone plays Wozniacki and Dementieva plays Petrova. I think both matches could go either way, again. Wozniacki seems to be exhausted and perhaps a bit injured, while Shiavone is a solid player. Dementieva and Petrova is another good match - Petrova is a bigger hitter than Dementieva, but Dementieva is such a good returner, it should be an interesting contrast in styles.
So three out of four matches are something of a toss-up. The other one would need a spectacular performance from Soderling in order for Federer to be in any trouble. Based on the way the rest of the tournament has been going, it'll be a bit of a shock if that sort of upset happens. But - that is why we play the tennis.
Monday, May 31, 2010
French Open Day 8
Well, it looked like it could be a thrilling day of tennis, but it turned out to be a bit of a dud. In eight matches, the losing player only won one set - Flavia Pennetta won the second set in a tiebreak to Caroline Wozniacki, before dropping the third 6-2. Other than that, the winning player in the other 7 matches had no real trouble to speak of. In fact, Youzhny won his match after only a single set when Tsonga retired. There were two notable upsets - second seed Venus Williams lost to Nadia Petrova and Andy Murray lost to Tomas Berdych, but neither player was really in the match. Clay isn't Murray or Venus's favorite surface, and the conditions were particularly today.
All in all, it was a fairly humdrum day - there weren't any matches where the outcome was in doubt for very long, which makes for some perfunctory tennis. The match between Federer and Wawrinka looked like it could get interesting in the second set, but after the #2 Swiss dropped his break advantage and lost the set in a tiebreak, it was all over.
The second half of the quarterfinals takes place tomorrow, and it should be more exciting; it's tough to figure out how it could be more uninspired. Nadal and Djokovic should both have relatively easy paths through to the quarters, as Nadal plays young Tomaz Bellucci, who may go on to have a good clay-court career, but he isn't at a level where he can compete with Nadal. Djokovic gets surprise 4th-rounder Robbie Ginepri, who shouldn't have a prayer to come through, but I didn't see him coming out of the fourth round. If he gets this scalp, it will be just unbelievable.
The other two matches could be much more competitive. Teimuraz Gabashvili, who hasn't even come close to dropping a set in six matches, plays Jurgen Melzer. Melzer has to be relieved not to see Andy Roddick on the other side of the net, but with the way that Gabashvili likes these conditions, he might have preferred the American. I think the qualifier has a real chance of reaching the quarters, which would be an astounding feat. And the highlight match, as far as I'm concerned, is Nicolas Almagro against Fernando Verdasco: two big-hitting lefty Spaniards. Verdasco is the more experienced and more attuned to the surface, so I give him the advantage. But he's also played a lot more tennis and has to be a little jaded.
On the women's side, Serena is in action - here's hoping she's feeling better for her match against Shahar Peer. Jelena Jankovic plays Daniela Hantuchova as well. The third match on the women's side is the head-scrather Jarmila Groth against Yaroslava Schvedova. The real exciting match-up on the women's side is Justine Henin against Sam Stosur. Can Justine's run continue? She got past Sharapova, but it wasn't easy.
The tournament is entering the second week, and things are (at least facially) getting more exciting. Let's see if the tennis can start to match up to the potential.
All in all, it was a fairly humdrum day - there weren't any matches where the outcome was in doubt for very long, which makes for some perfunctory tennis. The match between Federer and Wawrinka looked like it could get interesting in the second set, but after the #2 Swiss dropped his break advantage and lost the set in a tiebreak, it was all over.
The second half of the quarterfinals takes place tomorrow, and it should be more exciting; it's tough to figure out how it could be more uninspired. Nadal and Djokovic should both have relatively easy paths through to the quarters, as Nadal plays young Tomaz Bellucci, who may go on to have a good clay-court career, but he isn't at a level where he can compete with Nadal. Djokovic gets surprise 4th-rounder Robbie Ginepri, who shouldn't have a prayer to come through, but I didn't see him coming out of the fourth round. If he gets this scalp, it will be just unbelievable.
The other two matches could be much more competitive. Teimuraz Gabashvili, who hasn't even come close to dropping a set in six matches, plays Jurgen Melzer. Melzer has to be relieved not to see Andy Roddick on the other side of the net, but with the way that Gabashvili likes these conditions, he might have preferred the American. I think the qualifier has a real chance of reaching the quarters, which would be an astounding feat. And the highlight match, as far as I'm concerned, is Nicolas Almagro against Fernando Verdasco: two big-hitting lefty Spaniards. Verdasco is the more experienced and more attuned to the surface, so I give him the advantage. But he's also played a lot more tennis and has to be a little jaded.
On the women's side, Serena is in action - here's hoping she's feeling better for her match against Shahar Peer. Jelena Jankovic plays Daniela Hantuchova as well. The third match on the women's side is the head-scrather Jarmila Groth against Yaroslava Schvedova. The real exciting match-up on the women's side is Justine Henin against Sam Stosur. Can Justine's run continue? She got past Sharapova, but it wasn't easy.
The tournament is entering the second week, and things are (at least facially) getting more exciting. Let's see if the tennis can start to match up to the potential.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
French Open Day 7
Ah, there we go. After bemoaning the lack of upsets during the first week of the French Open, there were finally a couple of upsets - the two biggest were the top American males, in singles and doubles. Andy Roddick lost to Russian qualifier Teimuraz Gabashvili, in a match that showed how much Roddick does not like these conditions and how much harder it gets without proper preparation. On the one hand, it's a bad loss for the American, who had never lost to a qualifier in a grand slam before, and - to the best of my knowledge - hadn't lost to anyone outside of the top hundred. On the other, with no preparation and constantly being put first up on Suzanne Lenglen, it's not that much of a shock.
It was more of a surprise to see the Bryan brothers lose to the Brazilian duo Melo and Soares, as the Bryans were capable of breaking the record of most doubles titles won as a team here. So now there, only three Americans remain - Venus and Serena Williams, plus Robbie Ginepri. Yeah, you heard that right - Robbie Ginepri beat former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero in five sets, and that's much more of an upset than Roddick's loss. Ginepri was losing in challenger events earlier in the year and talking about whether or not his best year's are behind him. Now he's the last American male in the draw at the French open, playing against Novak Djokovic. Who could have guessed?
Really, Djokovic's quarter was decimated today - with Roddick, Ferrero, and also Ferrer all losing in upsets. Djokovic will now have to beat - at best - the 22nd seed to get to the semifinals. That's the only quarter that's been so thoroughly ripped to shreds - the other twelve players remaining are all seeds.
On the women's side, Serena managed to win, but just barely. If she's ill, it's going to be tough to come back on Monday. But the headline match - Justine Henin against Maria Sharapova - was suspended at one set all. It'll be interesting to see how that turns out.
The other action tomorrow is similarly exciting. As the top of the draw has been largely devoid of big upsets, the remaining players are all legitimate contenders. Federer plays Wawrinka, Tsonga plays Youzhny, Cilic plays Soderling, and Murray plays Berdych. Any of these matches could go either way - Federer is the biggest favorite, but the others are all almost too close to call. Suffice it to say, there's going to be a ton of big hitting from start to finish.
Dementieva is also in action, as is Venus Williams, who plays against Nadia Petrova. Maria Kirilenko plays Schiavone, and Pennetta plays Wozniacki. If the women's line-up is not as stellar as the men's, there are still some very good matches on offer.
It was more of a surprise to see the Bryan brothers lose to the Brazilian duo Melo and Soares, as the Bryans were capable of breaking the record of most doubles titles won as a team here. So now there, only three Americans remain - Venus and Serena Williams, plus Robbie Ginepri. Yeah, you heard that right - Robbie Ginepri beat former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero in five sets, and that's much more of an upset than Roddick's loss. Ginepri was losing in challenger events earlier in the year and talking about whether or not his best year's are behind him. Now he's the last American male in the draw at the French open, playing against Novak Djokovic. Who could have guessed?
Really, Djokovic's quarter was decimated today - with Roddick, Ferrero, and also Ferrer all losing in upsets. Djokovic will now have to beat - at best - the 22nd seed to get to the semifinals. That's the only quarter that's been so thoroughly ripped to shreds - the other twelve players remaining are all seeds.
On the women's side, Serena managed to win, but just barely. If she's ill, it's going to be tough to come back on Monday. But the headline match - Justine Henin against Maria Sharapova - was suspended at one set all. It'll be interesting to see how that turns out.
The other action tomorrow is similarly exciting. As the top of the draw has been largely devoid of big upsets, the remaining players are all legitimate contenders. Federer plays Wawrinka, Tsonga plays Youzhny, Cilic plays Soderling, and Murray plays Berdych. Any of these matches could go either way - Federer is the biggest favorite, but the others are all almost too close to call. Suffice it to say, there's going to be a ton of big hitting from start to finish.
Dementieva is also in action, as is Venus Williams, who plays against Nadia Petrova. Maria Kirilenko plays Schiavone, and Pennetta plays Wozniacki. If the women's line-up is not as stellar as the men's, there are still some very good matches on offer.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
French Open Day 6
We are almost back on schedule in Paris. After having almost the entire day's worth of play pushed back, there are now only two matches which were postponed until tomorrow to see through to completion. Aravane Rezai and Nadia Petrova are battling at 7-all in the third set, while Mikhail Youzhny is up two sets to one and a break in the fourth on Viktor Troicki. I don't know who's going to come through in the women's match, but I except Youzhny to find his way to victory fairly quickly.
Other action that took place today was fairly straightforward - in general, the tournament has been moving along about as one would have suspected. The top players have rolled, the favorites have won more often than not, and the dark horses who have been upset by now have usually been ones who were struggling with form or injury anyway. Take, for example, defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, just wasn't quite strong enough against Russian Maria Kirilenko. Sveta's ranking is plummeting, and she'll be hovering just above twenty after this tournament. The two-time grand slam winner needs to get her head straight.
Fernando Gonzalez also lost, rather tamely, to Ukrainian Oleksandr Dolgopolov Jr., and a result like that probably doesn't require my pointing out that Gonzo has been seriously struggling with tendinitis in his knees. He was a semifinalist here last year, so this result will hurt him, as well.
The only other seeded players who lost today lost to other seeds, and it'd be tough to call any of them upsets. Baghdatis lost to Murray, Montanes to Soderling, and Isner lost to Berdych. I'm not sure if Isner was tired after his two-day marathon against Chiudinelli or if Berdych just played amazing tennis, but this was a beat-down. I expect it was a little bit of both. Berdych has never made it past the fourth round here - in fact, he's never made it past the fourth round at any grand slam barring one visit to the quarterfinals back in 2007. For his talent, that is an absolute shame.
The other American who lost today lost in the opposite fashion - Mardy Fish lost an amazingly tight affair to Ivan Ljubicic, 10-8 in the fifth set. Unfortunately for Fish, that loss counts just the same as if he had been blown out. Disappointing result for Mardy, but hopefully he'll be able to get some confidence from how well he played, if nothing else.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's action, there are some spectacular matches taking place. The highlight is probably Justine Henin against Maria Sharapova. If you go all the way back to the year-end championships in 2008, these two played the last - and best - match of the year. But that was on a hardcourt, which favored Sharapova. I actually think that Henin has the advantage in this one, but if she's rusty or nervous - and who wouldn't be? - it could go either way.
Lleyton Hewitt plays Rafael Nadal, which might have the makings of a good match, but there's almost no way that Hewitt could pull off the upset. This is Nadal's best Grand Slam and Hewitt's worst. I don't see how Hewitt could even make it close - his game is too much like Nadal's, except less effective in just about every aspect. In order to beat Nadal, you can't out-Nadal him; you have to hit big, like Soderling did last year, or Roddick did earlier this year in Miami.
Andy Roddick is also in action, in his least favorite court - first up on Suzanne Lenglen. Fortunately, he is playing Teimuraz Gabashvili, who is playing his first Grand Slam third round match. He's ranked outside the top hundred, and was 1-6 on the year coming into the French Open. He had a couple pretty good wins against Grega Zemjla and Daniel Koellerer in the first two rounds, after winning three in qualifying, but he's entering an entirely different realm of tennis against Andy Roddick. This match is Roddick's to win or lose, if he can keep his head on straight.
The only other American male left in the draw is Robbie Ginepri, who I thought for sure would lose his second round match after Sam Querrey nearly walked off-court against him. But he made it through to the third round, where he'll face former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero. You have to think that Ginepri's run is over, but he is a former grand slam semifinalist, and he's surprised me before.
There are three other Spaniards in action tomorrow, as well. Nicolas Almagro has the easiest opponent in Frenchman Marc Gicquel, but he's also the weakest on clay. His compatriots, are stronger on the surface but facing sterner opposition. Verdasco is up against German Philipp Kohlschreiber and Ferrer faces Jurgen Melzer. Outside chance of an upset in both of those matches.
The last match that I think looks particularly interesting is Ivan Ljubicic against Tomaz Bellucci. One of the veterans of the game against one of the up-and-comers. I'd favor Belucci in this match, because of his age and the fact that his previous round was probably not as taxing as Ljubicic's. It may have been five sets as well, but it was a much quicker match. It should be interesting, though.
The disadvantage of a tournament that chugs along through the first week without a lot of surprises is that it takes some time for the Slam to feel like it's developed an identity. Up to this point, there has been plenty of good tennis, but no real defining matches for any of the players who've taken the court. The advantage of this kind a tournament is that the dearth of excitement in the first week gets made up for in the second week, as the top players who were seeded to meet each other do so, and at that point, we should be due for some epic clashes.
Other action that took place today was fairly straightforward - in general, the tournament has been moving along about as one would have suspected. The top players have rolled, the favorites have won more often than not, and the dark horses who have been upset by now have usually been ones who were struggling with form or injury anyway. Take, for example, defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, just wasn't quite strong enough against Russian Maria Kirilenko. Sveta's ranking is plummeting, and she'll be hovering just above twenty after this tournament. The two-time grand slam winner needs to get her head straight.
Fernando Gonzalez also lost, rather tamely, to Ukrainian Oleksandr Dolgopolov Jr., and a result like that probably doesn't require my pointing out that Gonzo has been seriously struggling with tendinitis in his knees. He was a semifinalist here last year, so this result will hurt him, as well.
The only other seeded players who lost today lost to other seeds, and it'd be tough to call any of them upsets. Baghdatis lost to Murray, Montanes to Soderling, and Isner lost to Berdych. I'm not sure if Isner was tired after his two-day marathon against Chiudinelli or if Berdych just played amazing tennis, but this was a beat-down. I expect it was a little bit of both. Berdych has never made it past the fourth round here - in fact, he's never made it past the fourth round at any grand slam barring one visit to the quarterfinals back in 2007. For his talent, that is an absolute shame.
The other American who lost today lost in the opposite fashion - Mardy Fish lost an amazingly tight affair to Ivan Ljubicic, 10-8 in the fifth set. Unfortunately for Fish, that loss counts just the same as if he had been blown out. Disappointing result for Mardy, but hopefully he'll be able to get some confidence from how well he played, if nothing else.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's action, there are some spectacular matches taking place. The highlight is probably Justine Henin against Maria Sharapova. If you go all the way back to the year-end championships in 2008, these two played the last - and best - match of the year. But that was on a hardcourt, which favored Sharapova. I actually think that Henin has the advantage in this one, but if she's rusty or nervous - and who wouldn't be? - it could go either way.
Lleyton Hewitt plays Rafael Nadal, which might have the makings of a good match, but there's almost no way that Hewitt could pull off the upset. This is Nadal's best Grand Slam and Hewitt's worst. I don't see how Hewitt could even make it close - his game is too much like Nadal's, except less effective in just about every aspect. In order to beat Nadal, you can't out-Nadal him; you have to hit big, like Soderling did last year, or Roddick did earlier this year in Miami.
Andy Roddick is also in action, in his least favorite court - first up on Suzanne Lenglen. Fortunately, he is playing Teimuraz Gabashvili, who is playing his first Grand Slam third round match. He's ranked outside the top hundred, and was 1-6 on the year coming into the French Open. He had a couple pretty good wins against Grega Zemjla and Daniel Koellerer in the first two rounds, after winning three in qualifying, but he's entering an entirely different realm of tennis against Andy Roddick. This match is Roddick's to win or lose, if he can keep his head on straight.
The only other American male left in the draw is Robbie Ginepri, who I thought for sure would lose his second round match after Sam Querrey nearly walked off-court against him. But he made it through to the third round, where he'll face former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero. You have to think that Ginepri's run is over, but he is a former grand slam semifinalist, and he's surprised me before.
There are three other Spaniards in action tomorrow, as well. Nicolas Almagro has the easiest opponent in Frenchman Marc Gicquel, but he's also the weakest on clay. His compatriots, are stronger on the surface but facing sterner opposition. Verdasco is up against German Philipp Kohlschreiber and Ferrer faces Jurgen Melzer. Outside chance of an upset in both of those matches.
The last match that I think looks particularly interesting is Ivan Ljubicic against Tomaz Bellucci. One of the veterans of the game against one of the up-and-comers. I'd favor Belucci in this match, because of his age and the fact that his previous round was probably not as taxing as Ljubicic's. It may have been five sets as well, but it was a much quicker match. It should be interesting, though.
The disadvantage of a tournament that chugs along through the first week without a lot of surprises is that it takes some time for the Slam to feel like it's developed an identity. Up to this point, there has been plenty of good tennis, but no real defining matches for any of the players who've taken the court. The advantage of this kind a tournament is that the dearth of excitement in the first week gets made up for in the second week, as the top players who were seeded to meet each other do so, and at that point, we should be due for some epic clashes.
Friday, May 28, 2010
French Open Day 5
Another rain-soaked day in Paris. There was actually not very much that got done today, so a lot of my excitement from yesterday carries over. But fortunately for the tournament organizers, they did get through all of the 2nd round matches from the top of the draw, so there aren't any of those held over. That would have been a real problem - as it stands, things probably won't get any worse, assuming that the weather starts to cooperate. If it continues to give us trouble, things could get interesting.
As it stands, there are only two 2nd round matches from the bottom half of the draw which were played to completion - Andy Roddick's and his next opponent's. Other than that, players from the bottom half either have to finish their match tomorrow, or they haven't even started yet. But it was a good win for Andy Roddick - except for a stretch of 8 points after the first rain delay where he was broken to lose the second set, the American was in control of the match. He may have been broken 7 times, but he was almost always in the lead. A good win for the American. And things are really getting better for him - his next opponent is also ranked outside the top 100, and they'll get an extra day of rest compared to the other plays in that half of the draw. He could make a little run here.
Since we're also playing all of the third round matches from the top half tomorrow, that makes for some interesting match-ups on an action-packed Friday. Two of the best matches are Andy Murray against Marcos Baghdatis and JW Tsonga against Thiemo De Bakker. When all's said and done, I expect that De Bakker may have the best clay-court career of these four players, but he's also the least accomplished at this point. None of the other three consider it their specialty, but all of them have a lot to gain this year.
Svetlana Kuznetsova will have to play better than she did on Wednesday to win against 30th seed Maria Kirilenko, but the defending champion has a shot. Federer has a much better chance against German surprise Julian Reister. In fact, I would put his chances at just about 100 percent. Expect the defending champions and the rest of the favorites - Serena Williams against Julia Goerges, Justine Henin against Kristen Flipkens, and Rafael Nadal against Horacio Zeballos. Zeballos will be a much better test for Nadal than Gianni Mina was, but Nadal will really have to be off his game for the Argentine to win.
Also, Robin Soderling plays Albert Montanes. Soderling has been playing imperious tennis thus far, and Montanes has not been at his best since beating Federer earlier in the year to defend his title in Estoril. But based on career performance, I'd call Montanes the better clay-court player. Leonardo Mayer is alos the better clay courter than Marin Cilic, and he's been in pretty good form. That could be another tough test for the young Croat. Finally, Mikhail Youzhny takes on Viktor Troicki, which has the potential to be another great match. These are all on court 3 by the way, so if you wanted to camp out there, it would not be a bad idea.
In a rematch of a tight affair from last week's tournament in Dusseldorf, John Isner takes on Tomas Berdych. Their last match was topsy-turvy, but I think that both players will be trying to play more solid, consistent tennis tomorrow. Another match to watch is Stan Wawrinka against Fabio Fognini, who managed to outlast Gael Monfils today 9-7 in the fifth. And Seppi-Kohlschreiber, plus Ferrer-Malisse... Plenty of exciting tennis. But here's hoping that the weather cooperates, or things could get really problematic.
As it stands, there are only two 2nd round matches from the bottom half of the draw which were played to completion - Andy Roddick's and his next opponent's. Other than that, players from the bottom half either have to finish their match tomorrow, or they haven't even started yet. But it was a good win for Andy Roddick - except for a stretch of 8 points after the first rain delay where he was broken to lose the second set, the American was in control of the match. He may have been broken 7 times, but he was almost always in the lead. A good win for the American. And things are really getting better for him - his next opponent is also ranked outside the top 100, and they'll get an extra day of rest compared to the other plays in that half of the draw. He could make a little run here.
Since we're also playing all of the third round matches from the top half tomorrow, that makes for some interesting match-ups on an action-packed Friday. Two of the best matches are Andy Murray against Marcos Baghdatis and JW Tsonga against Thiemo De Bakker. When all's said and done, I expect that De Bakker may have the best clay-court career of these four players, but he's also the least accomplished at this point. None of the other three consider it their specialty, but all of them have a lot to gain this year.
Svetlana Kuznetsova will have to play better than she did on Wednesday to win against 30th seed Maria Kirilenko, but the defending champion has a shot. Federer has a much better chance against German surprise Julian Reister. In fact, I would put his chances at just about 100 percent. Expect the defending champions and the rest of the favorites - Serena Williams against Julia Goerges, Justine Henin against Kristen Flipkens, and Rafael Nadal against Horacio Zeballos. Zeballos will be a much better test for Nadal than Gianni Mina was, but Nadal will really have to be off his game for the Argentine to win.
Also, Robin Soderling plays Albert Montanes. Soderling has been playing imperious tennis thus far, and Montanes has not been at his best since beating Federer earlier in the year to defend his title in Estoril. But based on career performance, I'd call Montanes the better clay-court player. Leonardo Mayer is alos the better clay courter than Marin Cilic, and he's been in pretty good form. That could be another tough test for the young Croat. Finally, Mikhail Youzhny takes on Viktor Troicki, which has the potential to be another great match. These are all on court 3 by the way, so if you wanted to camp out there, it would not be a bad idea.
In a rematch of a tight affair from last week's tournament in Dusseldorf, John Isner takes on Tomas Berdych. Their last match was topsy-turvy, but I think that both players will be trying to play more solid, consistent tennis tomorrow. Another match to watch is Stan Wawrinka against Fabio Fognini, who managed to outlast Gael Monfils today 9-7 in the fifth. And Seppi-Kohlschreiber, plus Ferrer-Malisse... Plenty of exciting tennis. But here's hoping that the weather cooperates, or things could get really problematic.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
French Open Day 4
What a weird day of tennis. It was interrupted by rain for some time, and it really separated two different days of tennis. The start of the day was full of blowouts. Federer and Venus Williams breezed through their second round matches, while Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga dropped a combined today of seven games. Flavia Pennetta, Nadia Petrova, and Caroline Wozniacki also made it through with relatively little difficulty.
But after the rain delay, things changed. The matches that remained ended up being very tight, even though they didn't have time to finish most of them. John Isner is down a set to Marco Chiudinelli, and Andy Murray is up a set over Juan Ignacio Chela, but the second set looked tighter. Baghdatis is up two sets after dropping the first to Marcel Granollers. The final match that is left to finish is probably the most ridiculous - Gael Monfils ended up at 5-all against Fabio Fognini, but it was quite a road to get there.
Monfils won the first two sets and looked to be cruising, but then things took a turn. The Frenchman lost the plot, and Fognini won the next two sets, then went up a break in the fifth. At around the time that all the other matches were being called on account of darkness, Monfils broke back to even the score at four-all. At this point, there was a grievous error in judgment. The local boy had the momentum, and the tournament director apparently didn't want to make the call to suspend the match. It's not entirely clear to me what happened, but he appeared to give them a choice about whether or not they wanted to continue playing.
Fognini wanted to stop, and he argued for six minutes and was eventually penalized a point for delaying the game, in what I think was a pretty classless move. Fognini was nearly broken, and Monfils would have been able to serve out the match. But after he held, things got really interesting. Monfils started to cramp - he couldn't get up to serve, he could barely move, and he was four points from defeat. Under normal circumstances, Fognini could have put him away, but it was so dark that he could barely see the ball. It was close, and Monfils saved two match points, but he eventually held. The match was suspended at 5-5, but it should have happened at 4-4. It's a good thing the match wasn't won or lost based on the tournament director's decision.
It was a similar situation in defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova's match. She was down 40-0 while her opponent, Andrea Petkovic, was serving for the match in the second set. Petkovic had been smacking winners for two whole sets, but at that point she tightened up and hit a couple errors in a row. Kuznetsova broke, took the second set 7-5, and then won the third 6-4. A good win, in the end. But it doesn't get much closer than that. Here's hoping that was a turning point and not a sign of things to come.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches might be the ones from yesterday that are left to finish. But there are some others that should be exciting. Rafael Nadal plays Horacio Zeballos - Nadal should still win, but Zeballos will prove more of a challenge than Gianni Mina did. Ana Ivanovic plays Alisa Kleybanova, which is a great test for the former champion. And Kei Nishikori plays Novak Djokovic - this match is a big question mark. Djokovic has not been playing at his best, and Nishikori has been off the court for so long. It could be an interesting match, if Djokovic isn't playing his best and Nishikori is back to top form.
There are other great matches. Ivan Ljubicic plays Mardy Fish and David Ferrer plays Xavier Malisse. Justine Henin is in action, and so is Serena Williams. Andy Roddick plays Blaz Kavcic in a match that I'm really looking forward to. Kavcic is less accomplished than Nieminen, so if Roddick plays a bit better than he did in that match, he should come through this one. There's a fairly good chance that an American (other than a Williams sister) will make it to the third round. I find it likely that tomorrow's matches will be a bit less exciting than the drama that we went through today. Could it really match up?
But after the rain delay, things changed. The matches that remained ended up being very tight, even though they didn't have time to finish most of them. John Isner is down a set to Marco Chiudinelli, and Andy Murray is up a set over Juan Ignacio Chela, but the second set looked tighter. Baghdatis is up two sets after dropping the first to Marcel Granollers. The final match that is left to finish is probably the most ridiculous - Gael Monfils ended up at 5-all against Fabio Fognini, but it was quite a road to get there.
Monfils won the first two sets and looked to be cruising, but then things took a turn. The Frenchman lost the plot, and Fognini won the next two sets, then went up a break in the fifth. At around the time that all the other matches were being called on account of darkness, Monfils broke back to even the score at four-all. At this point, there was a grievous error in judgment. The local boy had the momentum, and the tournament director apparently didn't want to make the call to suspend the match. It's not entirely clear to me what happened, but he appeared to give them a choice about whether or not they wanted to continue playing.
Fognini wanted to stop, and he argued for six minutes and was eventually penalized a point for delaying the game, in what I think was a pretty classless move. Fognini was nearly broken, and Monfils would have been able to serve out the match. But after he held, things got really interesting. Monfils started to cramp - he couldn't get up to serve, he could barely move, and he was four points from defeat. Under normal circumstances, Fognini could have put him away, but it was so dark that he could barely see the ball. It was close, and Monfils saved two match points, but he eventually held. The match was suspended at 5-5, but it should have happened at 4-4. It's a good thing the match wasn't won or lost based on the tournament director's decision.
It was a similar situation in defending champion Svetlana Kuznetsova's match. She was down 40-0 while her opponent, Andrea Petkovic, was serving for the match in the second set. Petkovic had been smacking winners for two whole sets, but at that point she tightened up and hit a couple errors in a row. Kuznetsova broke, took the second set 7-5, and then won the third 6-4. A good win, in the end. But it doesn't get much closer than that. Here's hoping that was a turning point and not a sign of things to come.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches might be the ones from yesterday that are left to finish. But there are some others that should be exciting. Rafael Nadal plays Horacio Zeballos - Nadal should still win, but Zeballos will prove more of a challenge than Gianni Mina did. Ana Ivanovic plays Alisa Kleybanova, which is a great test for the former champion. And Kei Nishikori plays Novak Djokovic - this match is a big question mark. Djokovic has not been playing at his best, and Nishikori has been off the court for so long. It could be an interesting match, if Djokovic isn't playing his best and Nishikori is back to top form.
There are other great matches. Ivan Ljubicic plays Mardy Fish and David Ferrer plays Xavier Malisse. Justine Henin is in action, and so is Serena Williams. Andy Roddick plays Blaz Kavcic in a match that I'm really looking forward to. Kavcic is less accomplished than Nieminen, so if Roddick plays a bit better than he did in that match, he should come through this one. There's a fairly good chance that an American (other than a Williams sister) will make it to the third round. I find it likely that tomorrow's matches will be a bit less exciting than the drama that we went through today. Could it really match up?
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
French Open Day 3
Now that we're through round one of the French Open, everyone who's going to have played a match has done so. Half the field is cleared out - well, almost. There's one match left to play - Xavier Malisse is up two sets to love against Simon Greul. Other than that, everything is set. There were a few relatively minor upsets today, but there's yet to be a big player to fall. One of the players who really wasn't a factor this year despite being the losing finalist last yeast was Dinara Safina, who collapsed against 39-year old Kimiko Date Krumm. It probably wasn't a back injury that cost her this match. She needs to get her head on straight.
The other player who lost because of mental problems was Sam Querrey, who lost to American Robbie Ginepri. After losing the second set in a tiebreak and getting broken to open the third set, Querrey just checked out. He said afterward that he didn't want to be on court, and he played like it. He seemed to be willing to admit his behavior was unprofessional, but the fact is that he's now 0-4 at Roland Garros, and there's no reason for him to have that kind of record.
On the other hand, American Andy Roddick got his clay court season off to a belated but successful start after beating Jarkko Nieminen in five sets. And the other players in Roddick's section of the draw that could have posed the greatest threat also lost today, so rather than a pair of Argentines waiting for him in the next two rounds, he's got a couple of Slovaks instead. He'll have Blaz Kavcic in the next round, and possibly Grega Zemjla instead of Juan Monaco after that.
Beyond that, the players who were expected to win managed to win today. French teen Gianni Mina put up a surprisingly good fight against Rafael Nadal, acquitting himself admirably, despite losing to the tune of 6-2, 6-2, 6-2. We'll see him here again. Other than Roddick, the only other five-set match today was Horacio Zeballos's win over Martin Fischer, 10-8 in the fifth.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we're back to the top half of the draw. There are actually some pretty good matches tomorrow. Gael Monfils takes on Fabio Fognini, Robin Soderling takes on Taylor Dent, Tsonga takes on Ouanna, and Murray faces Chela. There's an outside chance of an upset in any of those matches - as well as 32nd seed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez against Thiemo De Bakker. Leonardo Mayer and Julien Benneteau, Carsten Ball against Viktor Troicki, and John Isner faces Marco Chiudinelli!
This is really a pretty great lineup for a second round of a grand slam. Lots of great matches on outside courts, between players with great stylistic match-ups. Normally, grand slams take more than a round to get going, but I'm pretty excited about quite a few of these. With any luck, the tournament could really kick into high gear tomorrow.
The other player who lost because of mental problems was Sam Querrey, who lost to American Robbie Ginepri. After losing the second set in a tiebreak and getting broken to open the third set, Querrey just checked out. He said afterward that he didn't want to be on court, and he played like it. He seemed to be willing to admit his behavior was unprofessional, but the fact is that he's now 0-4 at Roland Garros, and there's no reason for him to have that kind of record.
On the other hand, American Andy Roddick got his clay court season off to a belated but successful start after beating Jarkko Nieminen in five sets. And the other players in Roddick's section of the draw that could have posed the greatest threat also lost today, so rather than a pair of Argentines waiting for him in the next two rounds, he's got a couple of Slovaks instead. He'll have Blaz Kavcic in the next round, and possibly Grega Zemjla instead of Juan Monaco after that.
Beyond that, the players who were expected to win managed to win today. French teen Gianni Mina put up a surprisingly good fight against Rafael Nadal, acquitting himself admirably, despite losing to the tune of 6-2, 6-2, 6-2. We'll see him here again. Other than Roddick, the only other five-set match today was Horacio Zeballos's win over Martin Fischer, 10-8 in the fifth.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we're back to the top half of the draw. There are actually some pretty good matches tomorrow. Gael Monfils takes on Fabio Fognini, Robin Soderling takes on Taylor Dent, Tsonga takes on Ouanna, and Murray faces Chela. There's an outside chance of an upset in any of those matches - as well as 32nd seed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez against Thiemo De Bakker. Leonardo Mayer and Julien Benneteau, Carsten Ball against Viktor Troicki, and John Isner faces Marco Chiudinelli!
This is really a pretty great lineup for a second round of a grand slam. Lots of great matches on outside courts, between players with great stylistic match-ups. Normally, grand slams take more than a round to get going, but I'm pretty excited about quite a few of these. With any luck, the tournament could really kick into high gear tomorrow.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
French Open Day 2
The second day of action at the French Open was actually less exciting than the first - there were no real upsets to speak of today at all. There were some very close matches, but all of the seeded players made it through, with just a couple of exception. Tommy Robredo lost, which is something of a surprise, but he had a very tough first round match against Viktor Troicki, and he also has been having some trouble with injury. On the other hand, Feliciano Lopez's lost to Julian Reister of Germany was something of a surprise - or at least, it would have been, if Lopez had won more than one match in his last six appearances at Roland Garros.
There was nearly a massive upset - Richard Gasquet was up two sets and a break on Andy Murray, but the recent exertion of winning his first title in a couple years eventually caught up with him. He wilted, and after that he was never in the match again. This is the second time that Murray has come back from two sets to love down against Gasquet! Unbelievable. Shame for Gasquet, who has drawn Murray, Youzhny, and Nadal in his last three Grand Slam first rounds. Give him a qualifier at Wimbledon, come on! Cut the guy a break.
Kei Nishikori also came back from two sets to love down, and so did Carsten Ball! Quite a day, despite the lack of any really noteworthy upsets. Everybody who was supposed to show up today did so.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we'll have the last third of the first round in action. Nadal is back on court, as is Justine Henin. So two of the favorites are back on the site of their biggest victories - or at least close by. Rafael Nadal is shockingly out on Suzanne Langlen, while Andy Roddick and Jarkko Nieminen are second on Philippe Chartrier. It may be Roddick's only clay-court match this year, so I guess the organizers wanted to draw attention to it. Or maybe they didn't want everyone to see Nadal demolish French teenager Gianni Mina.
Also, keep an eye on the performances of Fernando Verdasco, David Ferrer, Maria Sharapova, and Dinara Safina. And there are guaranteed to be two US winners, because Sam Querrey is playing Robbie Ginepri and Bethanie Mattek-Sands is playing Vania King. So we're going to go at least 2-2 tomorrow!
Other matches to watch include Lleyton Hewitt and Jeremy Chardy, Jurgen Melzer and Dudi Sela, and Marion Bartoli against Maria Elena Camerin. With Amelie Mauresmo out of the picture, Bartoli is the best hope for the French Open. So best of luck, and we'll see how tomorrow goes!
There was nearly a massive upset - Richard Gasquet was up two sets and a break on Andy Murray, but the recent exertion of winning his first title in a couple years eventually caught up with him. He wilted, and after that he was never in the match again. This is the second time that Murray has come back from two sets to love down against Gasquet! Unbelievable. Shame for Gasquet, who has drawn Murray, Youzhny, and Nadal in his last three Grand Slam first rounds. Give him a qualifier at Wimbledon, come on! Cut the guy a break.
Kei Nishikori also came back from two sets to love down, and so did Carsten Ball! Quite a day, despite the lack of any really noteworthy upsets. Everybody who was supposed to show up today did so.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we'll have the last third of the first round in action. Nadal is back on court, as is Justine Henin. So two of the favorites are back on the site of their biggest victories - or at least close by. Rafael Nadal is shockingly out on Suzanne Langlen, while Andy Roddick and Jarkko Nieminen are second on Philippe Chartrier. It may be Roddick's only clay-court match this year, so I guess the organizers wanted to draw attention to it. Or maybe they didn't want everyone to see Nadal demolish French teenager Gianni Mina.
Also, keep an eye on the performances of Fernando Verdasco, David Ferrer, Maria Sharapova, and Dinara Safina. And there are guaranteed to be two US winners, because Sam Querrey is playing Robbie Ginepri and Bethanie Mattek-Sands is playing Vania King. So we're going to go at least 2-2 tomorrow!
Other matches to watch include Lleyton Hewitt and Jeremy Chardy, Jurgen Melzer and Dudi Sela, and Marion Bartoli against Maria Elena Camerin. With Amelie Mauresmo out of the picture, Bartoli is the best hope for the French Open. So best of luck, and we'll see how tomorrow goes!
Monday, May 24, 2010
French Open Day 1
With the French Open at last underway, there are already a handful of upsets and exciting matches. JW Tsonga nearly proved to be the first big upset by a top-ten player, as he almost lost to German Daniel Brands, but barely managed to pull out the win 7-5 in the fifth set. Kudos to Tsonga for pulling through a tough first round, and also to Brands, who nearly came through with the best win of his career. Hopefully, Tsonga can take confidence from that tough win on center court.
Also, big win for Frenchman Edouard Roger-Vasselin, who lost the first two sets to Kevin Anderson of South Africa, only to come back and win the match in five. Normally, the hometown boys have trouble performing on their biggest stage, so this is an encouraging result. The other five-set matches of the day were Fabio Fognini over Nicolas Massu and Marco Chiudinelli over Somdev Devvarman. Good wins for both guys.
On the subject of good wins, defending champ Kuznetsova came through her first match with relatively little difficulty, which is encouraging, consider how poor her year has been so far. Venus Williams also made it through to the second round.
On the subject of upsets, though, Victoria Azarenka could barely keep the ball in play in her lopsided defeat to Gisela Dulko, and Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez somehow managed to lose to somebody I'd never heard of before - Akgul Amanmuradova, a player from Uzbekistan. Good for her, but it's a shame for Martinez Sanchez, who had just won her biggest title ever in Rome.
The only noteworthy upset on the men's side was Julien Benneteau over Ernests Gulbis, who unfortunately injured himself midway through the second set. It's a real shame for Gulbis, who was experiencing a career resurgence, to get sidelined at this point with an injury. Here's hoping it isn't serious.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's action, the biggest match of the day is Murray-Gasquet. I maintain that the winner of that match has a good chance of making it all the way to the semifinals. There are a lot of other players in action tomorrow whose form will establish how far people will expect them to make it in this tournament. Djokovic and Wozniacki are question marks, and will remain so until they get out on court tomorrow. Ana Ivanovic is another player who isn't getting much attention, which is a shame considering the fact that she's a former champion here. And Gael Monfils has been injured for much of the year, but he loves the atmosphere here and could make some noise. And Elena Dementieva! All these players could do very well, but they sure haven't shown their best form lately.
I'm also excited about Kei Nishikori in action, and Jesse Witten against Marcos Baghdatis. Melanie Oudin is out there as well, and though no one will expect her to win, it would be nice to have some Americans take a few matches. We're 2-2 so far, but that's because Venus won and a women's first-round match was between two U.S. players. John Isner plays Golubev way out on court 14, and Michael Yani and Lukas Lacko need to finish their match from today. It's tied at 8-8 in the fifth.
Of course, Federer and Serena are also in action, and they should blow through their matches in not much time. If they even look troubled against the opponents they're facing, I think that will not bode well for their chances in the next two weeks. I don't expect that they'll have any problems, as Peter Luczak and Stefanie Voegele are probably going to be outclassed on court and overcome by the occasion. Still, should be fun to watch the best players in the world at work!
Also, big win for Frenchman Edouard Roger-Vasselin, who lost the first two sets to Kevin Anderson of South Africa, only to come back and win the match in five. Normally, the hometown boys have trouble performing on their biggest stage, so this is an encouraging result. The other five-set matches of the day were Fabio Fognini over Nicolas Massu and Marco Chiudinelli over Somdev Devvarman. Good wins for both guys.
On the subject of good wins, defending champ Kuznetsova came through her first match with relatively little difficulty, which is encouraging, consider how poor her year has been so far. Venus Williams also made it through to the second round.
On the subject of upsets, though, Victoria Azarenka could barely keep the ball in play in her lopsided defeat to Gisela Dulko, and Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez somehow managed to lose to somebody I'd never heard of before - Akgul Amanmuradova, a player from Uzbekistan. Good for her, but it's a shame for Martinez Sanchez, who had just won her biggest title ever in Rome.
The only noteworthy upset on the men's side was Julien Benneteau over Ernests Gulbis, who unfortunately injured himself midway through the second set. It's a real shame for Gulbis, who was experiencing a career resurgence, to get sidelined at this point with an injury. Here's hoping it isn't serious.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's action, the biggest match of the day is Murray-Gasquet. I maintain that the winner of that match has a good chance of making it all the way to the semifinals. There are a lot of other players in action tomorrow whose form will establish how far people will expect them to make it in this tournament. Djokovic and Wozniacki are question marks, and will remain so until they get out on court tomorrow. Ana Ivanovic is another player who isn't getting much attention, which is a shame considering the fact that she's a former champion here. And Gael Monfils has been injured for much of the year, but he loves the atmosphere here and could make some noise. And Elena Dementieva! All these players could do very well, but they sure haven't shown their best form lately.
I'm also excited about Kei Nishikori in action, and Jesse Witten against Marcos Baghdatis. Melanie Oudin is out there as well, and though no one will expect her to win, it would be nice to have some Americans take a few matches. We're 2-2 so far, but that's because Venus won and a women's first-round match was between two U.S. players. John Isner plays Golubev way out on court 14, and Michael Yani and Lukas Lacko need to finish their match from today. It's tied at 8-8 in the fifth.
Of course, Federer and Serena are also in action, and they should blow through their matches in not much time. If they even look troubled against the opponents they're facing, I think that will not bode well for their chances in the next two weeks. I don't expect that they'll have any problems, as Peter Luczak and Stefanie Voegele are probably going to be outclassed on court and overcome by the occasion. Still, should be fun to watch the best players in the world at work!
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Week 20 Wrap-up and French Open Preview
The wrap-up will be quick, because I have a lot to say about the French Open. First of all, congratulations to Argentina for beating America in the Dusseldorf team tournament. I'm still not sure about the format - why was Robbie Ginepri playing to keep the U.S. alive, rather than John Isner? Oh well. It should be good practice for the Americans, heading into the French Open, and a nice confidence boost for the Argentines.
In Nice, Richard Gasquet won the inaugural tournament, in an exciting final match against Fernando Verdasco. The Spaniard served for the championship, but was broken, and then Gasquet took the tournament in a tiebreak. Well done - it's been a long road for Gasquet, who had not won a tournament since 2007. Will he be able to build on this win? We'll have to wait and see. Anyway, on to the French Open. There's no doubt that it's an exciting draw. As per usual, I'll go quarter by quarter.
First of all, Roger Federer's quarter. If Rog makes it out of this quarter, he breaks the record for most weeks at number one. Will he be able to do it? Well, he could have definitely asked for a smoother route to that record, but it's hard for me to see him losing before the semis. He opens against Australian vet Peter Luczak, who shouldn't give him any trouble. After that, he might face Janko Tipsarevic, who pushed Federer hard a couple years ago at the Aussie Open, but he probably won't be able to upset Federer on clay. After that, it's probably either Olivier Rochus or Feliciano Lopez. Both solid players, but Federer is 7-0 against each of them. Things get a little more interesting in the next couple of rounds. It's likely that Fed's fourth round opponent will be either Stan Wawrinka or Gael Monfils. Two solid clay-courters, but neither has been playing at their top level this year, especially in big matches. I don't think there are a lot of floaters in that 1/8th of the draw. The bottom half of Fed's quarter is a different story.
Soderling is the top seed here, and he's going to have a hell of a time equalling his run to the finals from last year. As if beating Nadal on the terre battue wasn't hard enough. The Swede should be able to make it through a couple rounds, but he could find himself facing Albert Montanes in the third, followed by either Marin Cilic, Leonardo Mayer, or Ernests Gulbis in the fourth. I would not be shocked if any of those five players made it to the quarters to face Federer. But who could beat him there? Whichever player made it that far would have to play the best match of his life. I see Fed making it into the semis. Gulbis is the closest thing this quarter has to a dark horse - and he has the best opening round match, too, against Frenchman Julien Benneteau.
The second quarter is probably the most wide open, overall. It should be Andy Murray's quarter, but after going 6-1 in his first tournament of the year, he's gone 7-6 since then. That's not going to give him a lot of confidence, and he starts off against an inspired Richard Gasquet. Murray is in danger of losing that match, honestly. He lost to JW Tsonga in the first round at the Aussie Open when Tsonga made his run to the final. It's possible for something similar to happen here. And whoever wins that match has a good chance of going deep, because that 1/8th of the draw is stacked with people who are not that comfortable on red clay.
The first seed that Murray/Gasquet could meet is Marcos Baghdatis, and then it's either Tomas Berdych or John Isner. All great hardcourt players, but their big-hitting strategies are tougher to employ effectively on the slow clay. The possible dark horses here are Marco Chiudinelli, who hasn't been able to play as well this year as he did at the end of 2009, and possibly Juan Ignacio Chela. He could sneak through if the winner of the Murray/Gasquet match is worn out.
The bottom 1/8th of this draw is much tougher, with more capable dirtballers in action. Tommy Robredo opens against Viktor Troick in one of the best opening round match-ups. Mikhail Youzhny is also here, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and JW Tsonga. The Frenchman could face a player who made some noise here last year, Josselin Ouanna, in the second round. Unfortunately for him, Ouanna plays just like Tsonga, except not as well. Also, keep an eye out for Thiemo De Bakker in this section of the draw. Like I said, this is a very open quarter, but I think it'll be the winner of Murray/Gasquet against Tsonga for a place in the semis. And Murray/Gasquet will probably take it.
The third quarter is also pretty open. The top two seeds - Novak Djokovic and Andy Roddick - are big question marks, because of their recent health. Roddick hasn't played a match on clay yet this year, and he does not have an easy road ahead of him. He opens against Jarkko Nieminen, and then could get two Argentines in the second and third rounds: Eduardo Schwank and Juan Monaco. And if he manages to get through all that, the American will almost certainly get David Ferrer in the fourth round. It's tough to see Roddick making it through that gauntlet of clay-court specialists. Unless Xavier Malisse, Dudi Sela, or Jurgen Melzer pulls off a shocking upset, I see Ferrer through to the quarters.
Djokovic's progress depends much more on his fitness. After starting the year off strong, he's gone 8-5 since his Davis Cup win over the U.S. Before that, he was 13-2 to start the year. And that includes retiring during his own tournament and pulling out of the last clay Master's. He hasn't played since. He'll likely get Kei Nishikori in his second round match, and the Japanese player is pretty hot coming off injury. That could be a tough match. And then, probably Victor Hanescu, who is a solid clay-courter. And after that, Djokovic could get either former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero (most likely) or perhaps Sam Querrey. Those would be tough matches for an exhausted Djoker. I think that a Ferrer-Ferrero quarterfinal is not unlikely here, with Ferrer probably coming out on top.
The last quarter of the draw is all Nadal, all the time. The most unfortunate opening round is Nadal against French wildcard Gianni Mina. It's a lot like Federer against Devin Britton at last year's US Open. It'll be a massacre. After that, he'll probably get Horacio Zeballos, a talented player who will have a good career on play. But he's no match for Nadal. And then Hewitt, in all likelihood. Again, no trouble there. I expect that Nadal will get Tomaz Bellucci in the fourth round, but he could also get Ivan Ljubicic or Mardy Fish. It won't matter. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent might be a Fernando - Verdasco or Gonzalez - or Nicolas Almagro. But he'll be through to the semis, no matter what.
I see semis with Federer and a relative surprise, as well as Nadal and another surprise. I don't expect Murray or Djokovic to live up to their seeding. I also expect it to be another Nadal-Federer final, and for Nadal to win. Nadal will reclaim his title, but Federer will get the record for number one.
I've got a lot ot say about the men, but I don't really know what's going to happen on the women's side. It seems like nobody is playing well. Serena Williams and Justine Henin are in thesame quarter, along with Bartoli, Sharapova, and Sam Stosur. That's a tough quarter. The next one has Jelena Jankovic, Yanina Wickmayer, and Dinar Safina, not to mention Aggie Radwanska. In all honesty, I have no idea who's going to make it through. You have to pick Serena or Justine, but it's a tough call.
The other half of the draw is even more up in the air. Wozniacki has a foot injury. Kuznetsova has been on a brutal bad run of form. Maria Kirilenko and Nadia Petrova are here, as are Dementieva, Azarenka, and Venus. Not to mention unseeded Carla Suarez Navarro, but I have no idea who's going to make it to the final. I'll revise my look at the women's game once we're through a few rounds, but for now, it's just impossible to tell. I'm anxious to see what happens, though!
In Nice, Richard Gasquet won the inaugural tournament, in an exciting final match against Fernando Verdasco. The Spaniard served for the championship, but was broken, and then Gasquet took the tournament in a tiebreak. Well done - it's been a long road for Gasquet, who had not won a tournament since 2007. Will he be able to build on this win? We'll have to wait and see. Anyway, on to the French Open. There's no doubt that it's an exciting draw. As per usual, I'll go quarter by quarter.
First of all, Roger Federer's quarter. If Rog makes it out of this quarter, he breaks the record for most weeks at number one. Will he be able to do it? Well, he could have definitely asked for a smoother route to that record, but it's hard for me to see him losing before the semis. He opens against Australian vet Peter Luczak, who shouldn't give him any trouble. After that, he might face Janko Tipsarevic, who pushed Federer hard a couple years ago at the Aussie Open, but he probably won't be able to upset Federer on clay. After that, it's probably either Olivier Rochus or Feliciano Lopez. Both solid players, but Federer is 7-0 against each of them. Things get a little more interesting in the next couple of rounds. It's likely that Fed's fourth round opponent will be either Stan Wawrinka or Gael Monfils. Two solid clay-courters, but neither has been playing at their top level this year, especially in big matches. I don't think there are a lot of floaters in that 1/8th of the draw. The bottom half of Fed's quarter is a different story.
Soderling is the top seed here, and he's going to have a hell of a time equalling his run to the finals from last year. As if beating Nadal on the terre battue wasn't hard enough. The Swede should be able to make it through a couple rounds, but he could find himself facing Albert Montanes in the third, followed by either Marin Cilic, Leonardo Mayer, or Ernests Gulbis in the fourth. I would not be shocked if any of those five players made it to the quarters to face Federer. But who could beat him there? Whichever player made it that far would have to play the best match of his life. I see Fed making it into the semis. Gulbis is the closest thing this quarter has to a dark horse - and he has the best opening round match, too, against Frenchman Julien Benneteau.
The second quarter is probably the most wide open, overall. It should be Andy Murray's quarter, but after going 6-1 in his first tournament of the year, he's gone 7-6 since then. That's not going to give him a lot of confidence, and he starts off against an inspired Richard Gasquet. Murray is in danger of losing that match, honestly. He lost to JW Tsonga in the first round at the Aussie Open when Tsonga made his run to the final. It's possible for something similar to happen here. And whoever wins that match has a good chance of going deep, because that 1/8th of the draw is stacked with people who are not that comfortable on red clay.
The first seed that Murray/Gasquet could meet is Marcos Baghdatis, and then it's either Tomas Berdych or John Isner. All great hardcourt players, but their big-hitting strategies are tougher to employ effectively on the slow clay. The possible dark horses here are Marco Chiudinelli, who hasn't been able to play as well this year as he did at the end of 2009, and possibly Juan Ignacio Chela. He could sneak through if the winner of the Murray/Gasquet match is worn out.
The bottom 1/8th of this draw is much tougher, with more capable dirtballers in action. Tommy Robredo opens against Viktor Troick in one of the best opening round match-ups. Mikhail Youzhny is also here, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and JW Tsonga. The Frenchman could face a player who made some noise here last year, Josselin Ouanna, in the second round. Unfortunately for him, Ouanna plays just like Tsonga, except not as well. Also, keep an eye out for Thiemo De Bakker in this section of the draw. Like I said, this is a very open quarter, but I think it'll be the winner of Murray/Gasquet against Tsonga for a place in the semis. And Murray/Gasquet will probably take it.
The third quarter is also pretty open. The top two seeds - Novak Djokovic and Andy Roddick - are big question marks, because of their recent health. Roddick hasn't played a match on clay yet this year, and he does not have an easy road ahead of him. He opens against Jarkko Nieminen, and then could get two Argentines in the second and third rounds: Eduardo Schwank and Juan Monaco. And if he manages to get through all that, the American will almost certainly get David Ferrer in the fourth round. It's tough to see Roddick making it through that gauntlet of clay-court specialists. Unless Xavier Malisse, Dudi Sela, or Jurgen Melzer pulls off a shocking upset, I see Ferrer through to the quarters.
Djokovic's progress depends much more on his fitness. After starting the year off strong, he's gone 8-5 since his Davis Cup win over the U.S. Before that, he was 13-2 to start the year. And that includes retiring during his own tournament and pulling out of the last clay Master's. He hasn't played since. He'll likely get Kei Nishikori in his second round match, and the Japanese player is pretty hot coming off injury. That could be a tough match. And then, probably Victor Hanescu, who is a solid clay-courter. And after that, Djokovic could get either former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero (most likely) or perhaps Sam Querrey. Those would be tough matches for an exhausted Djoker. I think that a Ferrer-Ferrero quarterfinal is not unlikely here, with Ferrer probably coming out on top.
The last quarter of the draw is all Nadal, all the time. The most unfortunate opening round is Nadal against French wildcard Gianni Mina. It's a lot like Federer against Devin Britton at last year's US Open. It'll be a massacre. After that, he'll probably get Horacio Zeballos, a talented player who will have a good career on play. But he's no match for Nadal. And then Hewitt, in all likelihood. Again, no trouble there. I expect that Nadal will get Tomaz Bellucci in the fourth round, but he could also get Ivan Ljubicic or Mardy Fish. It won't matter. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent might be a Fernando - Verdasco or Gonzalez - or Nicolas Almagro. But he'll be through to the semis, no matter what.
I see semis with Federer and a relative surprise, as well as Nadal and another surprise. I don't expect Murray or Djokovic to live up to their seeding. I also expect it to be another Nadal-Federer final, and for Nadal to win. Nadal will reclaim his title, but Federer will get the record for number one.
I've got a lot ot say about the men, but I don't really know what's going to happen on the women's side. It seems like nobody is playing well. Serena Williams and Justine Henin are in thesame quarter, along with Bartoli, Sharapova, and Sam Stosur. That's a tough quarter. The next one has Jelena Jankovic, Yanina Wickmayer, and Dinar Safina, not to mention Aggie Radwanska. In all honesty, I have no idea who's going to make it through. You have to pick Serena or Justine, but it's a tough call.
The other half of the draw is even more up in the air. Wozniacki has a foot injury. Kuznetsova has been on a brutal bad run of form. Maria Kirilenko and Nadia Petrova are here, as are Dementieva, Azarenka, and Venus. Not to mention unseeded Carla Suarez Navarro, but I have no idea who's going to make it to the final. I'll revise my look at the women's game once we're through a few rounds, but for now, it's just impossible to tell. I'm anxious to see what happens, though!
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