Week 43 Wrap-Up and Week 44 Preview

We had four finals take place today, and all but one went three sets. Shockingly, the one that was a straight-set victory was the one that featured a first-time finalist upsetting a top ten player and multiple title winner already this year. Mikhail Youzhny was in his fifth final of 2010, while Kukushkin was just in the first of his career. However, Kukushkin got a bit lucky, because the top seed had just played three consecutive three set matches, and he had saved match points in the last two. No matter how tough you are, that will wear on a player. Youzhny must have been drained in losing the final 6-2, 7-6(2). A great showing for the other Mikhail (the first final this year between players who share the same name, by the way), who jumps up 30 spots in the ranking.

The other finals were all close, but none was closer than the all-Austrian final between Jurgen Melzer and Andreas Haider-Maurer. Despite having a great year and enjoying his career high ranking, Melzer had yet to win a title this year, and he was defending points from a victory in last year's Vienna tournament. On the other hand, Haider-Maurer had barely played in any top tier tournaments in his career, and he only made it into the tournament as a lucky loser. He won the first set in an incredibly tight tiebreak, then lost the second set in another tiebreak. After that, the veteran's experience won out. But Haider-Maurer will be back - his play was really a revelation, this week.

In France, Gael Monfils played Ivan Ljubicic. Neither player has a winning record in finals, but the Frenchman's record was just abysmal. He was 2-9 coming in to this week, but the advantage of the hometown crowd allowed him to overcome a short patch of sub-standard play and win the match and the title in three sets. Kudos to Monfils - he could really be a different caliber of player if he could improve his record in these sorts of big, decisive matches.

Of course, the biggest final of the week was between Kim Clijsters and year-end number one Caroline Wozniacki. It would have been the biggest title of Wozniacki's career, but it wasn't going to happen. Kim has won the year-end title twice before, and she won in a hard-fought match, but her victory never really seemed to be in doubt. Wozniacki raised her level of play to come back from being down 4-1 in the secon set to win it 7-5, but she couldn't keep it up and Clijsters won in the third. It's a bit of a disappointing end to the season for Caroline, but consider her lack of a major win (and her less-than-stellar results against the top players) means that despite her number one ranking, she has a lot of room to improve her results next year. And at age 20, there's no reason she can't do just that.

Looking ahead to next week, we have a pair of 500-level tournaments taking place in Valencia, Spain and Basel, Switzerland. Since this the second-last week of regular ATP action for the season, the fields are stacked. Seventeen of the world's top 20 players are in action. The only ones missing are Marcos Baghdatis, who withdraw from Basel, Mardy Fish, whose season ended a couple weeks ago with injury, and Rafael Nadal - and really, what does he need with another 500 tournament?

It's tough to say which draw is tougher - both of them are filled with dangerous players, and there are a lot of first-round matches that could just as well be quarterfinals. It's also true that this is crunch time for the seven players who have a shot at grabbing one of the three remaining spots in the year-end championships.

In Valencia, Andy Murray is the top seed, but he's certainly not guaranteed an easy path to the final. He opens against Feliciano Lopez, and then gets Juan Monaco, the only player to have already played his first-round match. Getting through that, he'll probably get Tsonga or Tursunov in the quarterfinals - Tsonga is one of the players who has an outside shot of making the year-end championships, but he'll need really good runs this week and next. His second-round match against Tursunov is one to look forward to, it it comes to pass, as an indicator of Tsonga's chances at making a run and whether or not Tursunov is really back to his old self again.

Fernando Verdasco is currently ninth in the race for the year-end championships, but he hasn't won a match since the U.S. Open. He opens against American qualifier Michael Russell, which is a tricky one but should be winnable. After that, it only gets tougher, as he'll get either Sergiy Stakhovsky or Gilles Simon in the second round, but then things get a bit easier - it'll be either Davydenko or Kohlschreiber, neither of whom have been in great form recently.

The next quarter has two players who are trying to make the ATP tour finals, with Youzhny and Ferrer both vying for spots. The Russian is in a bit of trouble, having played through to the final in St. Petersburg and then needing to travel before play starts up, but his section isn't too tricky until he might find himself up against Ferrer in the quarters. The only other potential spoilers in that section are Arnaud clement and (maybe) Teymuraz Gabashvili, though Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who beat Nadal during the Asian swing, opens against Ferrer, as well.

The last quarter has Gael Monfils and Robing Soderling, as well as Stan Wawrinka and Nicolas Almagro. Lots of heavy hitting in this section, for sure. Any of those four guys could find their way through to the semifinals, but each of them has a relatively easy first round. There's no shortage of fireworks in this draw, as you can see.

But there may actually be even more in Basel, if you can believe it. Of course, Roger Federer is the top seed, and he opens against young Ukrainian player Alexandr Dolgopolov. And after that, he gets either Tipsarevic or Istomin. Now none of those guys are top players, but they all have the potential to hit with heavyweights on any given day. In the quarters, he may get either Stepanek or (more likely) Jurgen Melzer. Fed has made the final here for the past four years, and I wouldn't be shocked if he made a run again.

The player most likely to stand in his way (or at least hope to) is probably Andy Roddick, who is hoping he's fully recovered from the injury that shortened his campaign during the Asian swing. He opens against Sam Querrey, who has only won a single match since the U.S. Open, but he did beat Roddick the last time they played. After that, Roddick could play either Belgian vet Xavier Malisse or up-and-coming big hitter Andry Golubev. The other section of Roddick's quarter may have Cilic as the top seed, but he hasn't been playing like it. You have to think that the favorite to get through to be Roddick's quarterfinal opponent (assuming he lives up to his seeding) is David Nalbandian.

The third quarter in Basel has Ljubicic, last week's losing finalist in Montpellier, Florian Mayer, who lost to Federer in the Stockholm final, Troicki, who just won his first career title, and Michael Berrer, who was a semifinalist in Vienna. As if that wasn't enough, it also has Richard Gasquet and Tomas Berdych. The Czech player is next in line to qualify for the year-end championships, but he also is in pretty poor form, since he hasn't won more than two consecutive matches since he lost in the Wimbledon final. He doesn't need many wins to secure his spot in the finals, but he's going to need a couple this week and next in order not to slide out of the top eight. He gets lucky loser Tobias Kamke as a first round, which is about as good as he could hope for. Gasquet in the second round is a trickier ask...

The final quarter of the draw has what could be the most appetizing first-round match of the week. Second-seed Novak Djokovic opens against Ernests Gulbis, which would have been a blockbuster in the Spring, but Ernests has been having trouble recently, while Djokovic has been playing some of his best tennis. I think the Djokovic may have more trouble with his second round match against (in all likelihood) Jarkko Nieminen, who has been enjoying a rich vein of form at the end of the season. Meanwhile, he could get John Isner in the quarterfinals, if Isner can get past French net rusher Michael Llodra. That should be a fun one to see, too.

As you can see, there's a lot going on this week, and a lot on the line for some of the players involved. I'm excited to see how it plays out!

Week 29 Finals

The two finals taking place tomorrow are both looking like good matches, and I got three out of the four competitors correct. Golubev and Melzer face off in Hamburg - it's Golubev's second final of his career, and Melzer is the only player who can fight off whatever bad juju was bringing down the seeds throughout the week. Despite his recent run of excellent form, the veteran Melzer only has two titles to his name. He's made eight finals, so that's not exactly an encouraging record. This should be an interesting match, because if Golubev can feel his racket on the ball and finds a way to hit through Melzer, he may just come off with a victory. Of course, Golubev has just come out of nowhere in this tournament, while Melzer has been playing great lately. In a pressure situation, Melzer's confidence may just carry him through to the finish, even if Golubev comes out playing well. It'll be tough for the young Kazakh to perform at the level he'll need to on such a big stage.

And speaking of form, Mardy Fish is absolutely on fire. He pulled out a really tough win over top seed Andy Roddick today, thanks in no small part to his increased fitness since his surgery. This resurgence has been in the works all year, but Fish is currently on a nine-match winning streak, and he is playing as well as I've seen him. Unfortunately for him, the guy he faces tomorrow is one of the best at throwing players off their rhythm. John Isner has some interesting x-factors going for him, as well. Playing in his first tournament since becoming a part of tennis history, he's into the final. He's also in his own backyard, having played NCAA tennis for the Georga Bulldogs. It will be interesting to see if Fish can get his game going, with Isner banging serves past him - if Mardy can neutralize Isner's serve, and he did that pretty well against Roddick - then he'll come away with the victory, for sure. But if Isner serves as well as he's capable, keeps Mardy from getting any rhythm on return, he could catch Fish on an off-game or get to a tiebreak - and at that point, anything can happen.

Both of these matches mean a lot to all of the players involved, and there are some interesting storylines at play. And the summer season is just getting started!

Semifinals Complete

The lineup for both the men's and women's finals has been determined. The men's semifinals, which both took place today, went about as expected. It was a great pair of matches, even though the results were just about what one might have expected, going in.

The closer of the two matches was definitely Berdych-Soderling. It was five sets of big-hitting tennis, with some really strong shot-making by both players. Soderling started out on fire, playing at a similar level to the one he maintained against Roger Federer. Berdych couldn't quite hang with him, and he managed to break him once and win the set. But after that, it was Soderling's level that dipped in the next two sets, and Berdych was able to go up by two sets to one. At that point, the old Berdych we were so familiar with showed his face. On the verge of making his first grand slam final, he got tight. Meanwhile, Soderling found his game again - he never quite got back to the level he played against Federer again, but it was more than enough to handle the somewhat shaky Czech. When all was said and done, he got through to his second consecutive French Open final in five sets.

Nadal's match had significantly fewer twists and turns. He was in command from the word go, and it looked like he was going to have an exceptionally straightforward win until he seemed to start hot-dogging just a little bit at the end of the third set. He was going for unreasonably tough shots, possibly trying to give the French fans more of a show. He ended up getting broken while serving for a spot in the finals, when Melzer started playing his best tennis of the entire match. He broke, and got up an early mini-break in the tiebreak. But in the end, Rafa restored order and ended up winning in three, as expected.

So really, a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final is almost as exciting as Federer-Nadal. While Roger and Rafa have immense respect for each other on and off the court, I believe it to the case that Rafa and Robin actively dislike each other. Nadal will be looking for some revenge, no doubt. More on that match-up tomorrow.

The women's final is tomorrow as well, and that features an extremely surprising pair of finalists. Sam Stosur and Francesca Schiavone should be an interesting match, even if it doesn't have the star power of some recent finals. I expect that Stosur will overpower the crafty and versatile Italian, but Schiavone also could be a better big-match player than the Aussie. Schiavone seems to thrive on playing to the crowd, as she demonstrated earlier in the week by dropping to her feet and kissing the clay after one of her wins. She may have the crowd behind her, but it probably won't be enough to blunt the power of Sam Stosur. It would be one of the greatest surprise wins and culminations of a crazy two weeks of tennis that we've seen in years on either the men's or women's side.

French Open Semifnals

Well, the women's semifinals are complete, and they were a bit anti-climactic. Dementieva was troubled with some sort of injury, and despite holding tough for a whole set, which she lost in a tiebreak, she was forced to retire without playing through the rest of the match. It's always a shame to be struggling with an injury at such an important stage. And apparently the shortened match had some effect on Jelena Jankovic's preparation, because she was not able to get up for her match against Sam Stosur. Both of the favorites lost in the semis, so it's a very surprising final pairing: two first-time finalists in Australian Sam Stosur and Italian Francesca Schiavone. Anybody who had those two in their bracket gets kudos from me.

Here's hoping that the men's semifinals, taking place tomorrow, are a bit more exciting. I'll put my money on the fact that they will be.

The first match features Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling, two really big-hitting guys. Soderling leads the head to head 5-3, and they're 1-1 on clay. It's also worth noting that Berdych won their last meeting, earlier this year, by the score of 6-2, 6-2. Both players have been blowing their opponents off the court up to this point in the tournament. Soderling has dropped two sets to Berdych's zero, but Soderling has faced the stiffer competition, not least of which was his win over Federer in the quarterfinals. I think the way Soderling reacts to that win will determine the outcome of this match, in large part: if Soderling is satisfied with getting that win, Berdych will probably be able to beat him tomorrow. But if he's inspired by it, then I give him the edge. It's an exciting pairing - look for plenty of big hitting, but not a lot of long rallies. Soderling really should have the advantage, as he can move and defend better, while he can hit just as big.

I'll be surprised if the second semifinal is as competitive. Credit to Jurgen Melzer for making it this far, but his Cindarella story ends here. Melzer has only played Nadal twice, and in those four sets he's won a total of eight games. Nadal is now the only slam winner left in the field, and he's the sort of player who will take that as a chance to get more focused, rather than letting his focus drop. He wants his French Open title back, and he has a really good chance to get it back. It would be fascinating to see a Nadal-Soderling rematch in the final.

But first, both of them have to win. I think there's a chance that Nadal will find Tomas Berdych on the other side of the net, but I'd be shocked if either Soderling or Berdych gets Melzer. I think it would take a pretty major injury to Nadal for him to lose to Jurgen. Fingers crossed that won't happen.

Madrid Quartefinals

Tomorrow we have the quarterfinals in the final clay-court Masters event of the year. It's a fairly strong lineup, but a few of the faces that one might have expected to find there are out, either due to injury or fatigue. But three of the four quarterfinal matches feature six players who have to be considered favorites to make the second week at Roland Garros.

Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.

The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.

The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.

On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!