Week 43 Wrap-Up and Week 44 Preview

We had four finals take place today, and all but one went three sets. Shockingly, the one that was a straight-set victory was the one that featured a first-time finalist upsetting a top ten player and multiple title winner already this year. Mikhail Youzhny was in his fifth final of 2010, while Kukushkin was just in the first of his career. However, Kukushkin got a bit lucky, because the top seed had just played three consecutive three set matches, and he had saved match points in the last two. No matter how tough you are, that will wear on a player. Youzhny must have been drained in losing the final 6-2, 7-6(2). A great showing for the other Mikhail (the first final this year between players who share the same name, by the way), who jumps up 30 spots in the ranking.

The other finals were all close, but none was closer than the all-Austrian final between Jurgen Melzer and Andreas Haider-Maurer. Despite having a great year and enjoying his career high ranking, Melzer had yet to win a title this year, and he was defending points from a victory in last year's Vienna tournament. On the other hand, Haider-Maurer had barely played in any top tier tournaments in his career, and he only made it into the tournament as a lucky loser. He won the first set in an incredibly tight tiebreak, then lost the second set in another tiebreak. After that, the veteran's experience won out. But Haider-Maurer will be back - his play was really a revelation, this week.

In France, Gael Monfils played Ivan Ljubicic. Neither player has a winning record in finals, but the Frenchman's record was just abysmal. He was 2-9 coming in to this week, but the advantage of the hometown crowd allowed him to overcome a short patch of sub-standard play and win the match and the title in three sets. Kudos to Monfils - he could really be a different caliber of player if he could improve his record in these sorts of big, decisive matches.

Of course, the biggest final of the week was between Kim Clijsters and year-end number one Caroline Wozniacki. It would have been the biggest title of Wozniacki's career, but it wasn't going to happen. Kim has won the year-end title twice before, and she won in a hard-fought match, but her victory never really seemed to be in doubt. Wozniacki raised her level of play to come back from being down 4-1 in the secon set to win it 7-5, but she couldn't keep it up and Clijsters won in the third. It's a bit of a disappointing end to the season for Caroline, but consider her lack of a major win (and her less-than-stellar results against the top players) means that despite her number one ranking, she has a lot of room to improve her results next year. And at age 20, there's no reason she can't do just that.

Looking ahead to next week, we have a pair of 500-level tournaments taking place in Valencia, Spain and Basel, Switzerland. Since this the second-last week of regular ATP action for the season, the fields are stacked. Seventeen of the world's top 20 players are in action. The only ones missing are Marcos Baghdatis, who withdraw from Basel, Mardy Fish, whose season ended a couple weeks ago with injury, and Rafael Nadal - and really, what does he need with another 500 tournament?

It's tough to say which draw is tougher - both of them are filled with dangerous players, and there are a lot of first-round matches that could just as well be quarterfinals. It's also true that this is crunch time for the seven players who have a shot at grabbing one of the three remaining spots in the year-end championships.

In Valencia, Andy Murray is the top seed, but he's certainly not guaranteed an easy path to the final. He opens against Feliciano Lopez, and then gets Juan Monaco, the only player to have already played his first-round match. Getting through that, he'll probably get Tsonga or Tursunov in the quarterfinals - Tsonga is one of the players who has an outside shot of making the year-end championships, but he'll need really good runs this week and next. His second-round match against Tursunov is one to look forward to, it it comes to pass, as an indicator of Tsonga's chances at making a run and whether or not Tursunov is really back to his old self again.

Fernando Verdasco is currently ninth in the race for the year-end championships, but he hasn't won a match since the U.S. Open. He opens against American qualifier Michael Russell, which is a tricky one but should be winnable. After that, it only gets tougher, as he'll get either Sergiy Stakhovsky or Gilles Simon in the second round, but then things get a bit easier - it'll be either Davydenko or Kohlschreiber, neither of whom have been in great form recently.

The next quarter has two players who are trying to make the ATP tour finals, with Youzhny and Ferrer both vying for spots. The Russian is in a bit of trouble, having played through to the final in St. Petersburg and then needing to travel before play starts up, but his section isn't too tricky until he might find himself up against Ferrer in the quarters. The only other potential spoilers in that section are Arnaud clement and (maybe) Teymuraz Gabashvili, though Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who beat Nadal during the Asian swing, opens against Ferrer, as well.

The last quarter has Gael Monfils and Robing Soderling, as well as Stan Wawrinka and Nicolas Almagro. Lots of heavy hitting in this section, for sure. Any of those four guys could find their way through to the semifinals, but each of them has a relatively easy first round. There's no shortage of fireworks in this draw, as you can see.

But there may actually be even more in Basel, if you can believe it. Of course, Roger Federer is the top seed, and he opens against young Ukrainian player Alexandr Dolgopolov. And after that, he gets either Tipsarevic or Istomin. Now none of those guys are top players, but they all have the potential to hit with heavyweights on any given day. In the quarters, he may get either Stepanek or (more likely) Jurgen Melzer. Fed has made the final here for the past four years, and I wouldn't be shocked if he made a run again.

The player most likely to stand in his way (or at least hope to) is probably Andy Roddick, who is hoping he's fully recovered from the injury that shortened his campaign during the Asian swing. He opens against Sam Querrey, who has only won a single match since the U.S. Open, but he did beat Roddick the last time they played. After that, Roddick could play either Belgian vet Xavier Malisse or up-and-coming big hitter Andry Golubev. The other section of Roddick's quarter may have Cilic as the top seed, but he hasn't been playing like it. You have to think that the favorite to get through to be Roddick's quarterfinal opponent (assuming he lives up to his seeding) is David Nalbandian.

The third quarter in Basel has Ljubicic, last week's losing finalist in Montpellier, Florian Mayer, who lost to Federer in the Stockholm final, Troicki, who just won his first career title, and Michael Berrer, who was a semifinalist in Vienna. As if that wasn't enough, it also has Richard Gasquet and Tomas Berdych. The Czech player is next in line to qualify for the year-end championships, but he also is in pretty poor form, since he hasn't won more than two consecutive matches since he lost in the Wimbledon final. He doesn't need many wins to secure his spot in the finals, but he's going to need a couple this week and next in order not to slide out of the top eight. He gets lucky loser Tobias Kamke as a first round, which is about as good as he could hope for. Gasquet in the second round is a trickier ask...

The final quarter of the draw has what could be the most appetizing first-round match of the week. Second-seed Novak Djokovic opens against Ernests Gulbis, which would have been a blockbuster in the Spring, but Ernests has been having trouble recently, while Djokovic has been playing some of his best tennis. I think the Djokovic may have more trouble with his second round match against (in all likelihood) Jarkko Nieminen, who has been enjoying a rich vein of form at the end of the season. Meanwhile, he could get John Isner in the quarterfinals, if Isner can get past French net rusher Michael Llodra. That should be a fun one to see, too.

As you can see, there's a lot going on this week, and a lot on the line for some of the players involved. I'm excited to see how it plays out!

US Open - Super Saturday

In just the three matches we had today, the full gamut of tennis competitiveness was on display. We had one match which was a complete fiasco, in which one of the players didn't even show up mentally and was never even on the same court as the eventual winner. We had one match where it was a tightly-contested affair, with both players achieving a good level of tennis, but one was simply the better player today, and despite some moments of brief tension, the outcome was never really in doubt. And we had one match that was utterly topsy-turvy, but when it all came together near the end, both players reached an astonishing level of play, and it wasn't clear until the last point was played just who was going to come away with the victory. It was without question a classic match, one of the best of this year's Open, if not the entire year.

Of course, the first refers to the women's final, where Vera Zvonareva managed to be as much of a headcase as she'd been in the past. Credit to her for getting this far, but she really couldn't hold herself together in the pressure of the final, unfortunately. Kim Clijsters played good tennis, with a 17-15 winner to unforced error ratio, but her opponent was at a mere 6-24. It's a shame for Vera, who played unbelievably well to get her, to stumble at this stage once again. There must be something wrong with the Russian tennis development system to produce players with so much skill who have so many problems in situations like these. Dinara Safina, anyone?

The second was the contest between Mikhail Youzhny and Rafael Nadal. The Russian didn't play bad tennis by any means. He played a strong match, considering how much he had to play recently, compared to how fresh Nadal must have been. But Youzhny just didn't have the game to handle Nadal today. He managed one short-lived, last-minute surge of great play to break Nadal in the third set, but was quickly broken back and lost the match. No shame in that, he was just beaten by the better player - short of breaking Rafa's knee with his racket, I don't know what Youzhny could have done out there today.

The third match was a great one. I don't think it was a match for the ages - any match where one of the players loses sets 6-1 and 6-2 could have been a lot closer and more even throughout, but the fifth set was one of the best moments of the Open this year. Federer made a big push at just the moment that you thought he would, having essentially given away the fourth set - while Novak was serving to stay in the match. He got up 15-40, giving himself a pair of match points. Despite having some rough patches of play, it looked like Federer was going to close it out and face Nadal in the final. Everything was going according to the script.

But apparently, Djokovic hadn't read it. Down two match points, he blasted three straight winners - and not just winners, but stone-cold winners, blasted at ridiculous velocity passed a stunned Federer. To make those shots under any circumstances would have been impressive, but to make them down match point in the semifinal of a grand slam against Roger Federer - that's just sick. And Djokovic was apparently so pumped up by it that he was able to break Federer in the next game and serve out the match. Really stunning display by Novak, who hasn't had a performance even close to this one since winning the Aussie Open back in 2008.

That said, I would be shocked if Djokovic can beat Nadal in tomorrow's final. After the monumental effort he had to put forth in the semis, he still gets to play the world's top player with essentially no rest. Nadal still hasn't lost a set and has had a pretty clear path to the final. He'll be fresh and eager to put his stamp on history, and a physically and mentally exhausted Djokovic is exactly who he'll hope to see on the other side of the net. Nadal won't go on walkabout for a set or two at a time the way Federer did. He won't spray his forehand all over the place deep in the fifth set - or any set, for that matter.

It would be one of the greatest performances in tennis history if Djokovic could come back from this and beat Federer tomorrow. I don't see it happening.

US Open Day 12

The women's semifinals took place today, and they were pretty surprising. Three of the four players were shaky and off their game today - and the one who wasn't was Vera Zvonareva. Top seed Caroline Wozniacki played her first shaky match of the tournament, and the Russian was there to capitalize. Credit to Vera, who played a very strong, solid match from a player who hasn't been known for her consistency in the past, but Wozniacki was strangely not present today. For somebody who has played so solid from day one against some very tough opponents in an array of conditions, I'm not sure what it was that got to her today. But Zvonareva has emerged as one of the best stories of the tournament, since she's made consecutive grand slam finals and has emerged as the Russian. No small feat for a player who was bawling on the court last year, tearing off her own leg strappings after missing six match points against Flavia Pennetta.

And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.

Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.

As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.

The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.

Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!

Rogers Cup Wrap-Up and Cincinnati Preview

Well, that was a weird final day. Both of the matches which took place today were delayed and interrupted by some problems with rain. In Toronto, during the men's final, the rain delay just kept Federer from really getting into the match. It was a tight affair, but Murray won 7-5, 7-5. Unfortunately, because of the odd conditions in which the match was played, it's tough to tell too much from Murray's victory. He played great, but he got a few breaks that ended up deciding the match. Good win for the Scot, but good for Federer to make it back to number two in the world.

In Cincinnati, the women's final was just as odd. Kim Clijsters was down a set and a break, and was serving to stay in the tournament when a rain delay came along, and she went ahead to break Sharapova while she was serving for the match, then won the second set in a tiebreak. Sharapova was troubled by some kind of injury in the third, but credit Kim for playing through a tough situation. And Maria was magnanimous in defeat - I'm glad to see her back near the top level of the game, because she's such a great personality in addition to being such a great competitor.

The second big men's Masters event takes place next week in Cincinnati, now that the women are off to Canada. I'll take a look at the draw there - this pair of Masters Series tournaments is always a great fortnight during the Summer, something of a U.S. Open preview. Murray just helped his odds in Flushing Meadows this year, but Federer showed he can still play some great tennis to make it to that stage.

Nadal is still the top seed, of course, and one of the eight players to get a bye in the first round. His section of the draw has some tricky players - in fact, his first match could be against Feliciano Lopez, who beat Nadal in Queens. Lopez has to get past Taylor Dent first, but Dent has not been having a great year. After that, Nadal will probably get either Almagro or Wawrinka, who are actually playing each other in the first round. That's going to be a good match, and the winner will get either Llodra or Benneteau - but I'd bet against either Frenchman, no matter who they get. In the quarters, Nadal could have face Cilic, but the Croat was already upset in the first round by Marcos Baghdatis. As a result, it's likely that the Spaniard will get Berdych instead. That should be a fun one.

Even though Federer moved up to number two again this week, the seedings were already determined for this week's tournament, which means that Federer is still the third seed, and could face Nadal in the semifinals. Since Federer is the defending champ here, that's a tough draw - and Federer could slip back to third in the world before the U.S. Open seeds are determined. Lots on the line here. Fed's quarter also has two American wildcards - Robbie Ginepri and James Blake, who could get Fed in the second round. It's tough to see the American pulling off that upset, but he's beaten Roger before. After that, Fed could face Monfils or Kohlschreiber, or his near-conqueror Alejandro Falla. In the quarters, Davydenko is Fed's seeded opponent, but since the Russian has not been playing his best, I see either Querrey or Ferrer making it there. This is actually a good chance for Sam, who has gotten a pretty good draw. He needs a good result at a big tournament like this.

The third quarter is Murray's, but there are a lot of dangerous floaters there. His seeded quarterfinal opponent is Verdasco, but he could have to get by Melzer, Youzhny, Gulbis, Chardy, Gasquet, Fish, or Simon instead. This quarter has the most firecracker opening rounds - Fish against Simon, Gasquet against Youzhny, and Gulbis against U.S. wildcard Donald Young. Lots of fun, streaky players here, so any number of them have the chance to get on a run through to the semifinals.

The final quarter has Novak Djokovic, Robin Soderling, and recently mono-suffering Andy Roddick, who has dropped to the ninth seed, so he has to open in the first round against Sergiy Stakhovsky. Lleyton Hewitt opens against Yen-Hsun Lu for the chance to face Soderling, while David Nalbandian gets Ivan Ljubicic. And Djokovic's first opponent will be either Radek Stepanek or Viktor Troicki. And John Isner is in this section, too. These bottom two quarters are pretty much loaded, honestly. And it's tough to know who's going to get through. There are plenty of great match-ups, though. I'm excited for another week of Masters Series tennis.

Miami Final

Tomorrow, the men's final in Miami comes to a close. Once again, Roddick made an unlikely run, beating one top ten player en route to his final. In this case, his win was a bit more significant - Nadal here, while his toughest opponent in Indian Wells was a moderately choking Robin Soderling. Here, there was no choke, and that's the biggest difference. A few weeks ago, Roddick hung around and Soderling managed to lose, but Roddick took the match - emphatically - from Nadal on friday. That may prove to be all the difference.

Still, the situation is eerily similar. Roddick is the favorite, with his higher ranking and favorable head to head against his opponent. He had the momentum going in to the final against Ljubicic, whose tournament ultimately turned out to be a fluke, or maybe just one of the last big runs of a former top three player. Whatever it was, it was too much for Roddick to handle, despite the fact that everything seemed like it should have gone his way. Even the way he lost - Roddick was leading the tour in tiebreaks, but he couldn't pull out either against Ljubicic.

His opponent is a similar sort of player. Big guy, big server, and kind of a career underachiever. Not to mention, Berdych had a tougher road to the final. He went through three top ten players, consecutively - Federer, Verdasco, and Soderling. The last of which was a complete beatdown, as the Swede opted not to really show up for the match. Berdych has a ton of talent and can hit the crap out of the ball, but hasn't been playing great in the big moments. The real representative moment of his career has been the Australian Open against Roger Federer, up two sets to none and with a break point to serve for the match, he duffed a volley into the net.

This week, he seems to have shaken some of his demons. Not so much against Soderling, because Berdych played well, but as mentioned, the Swede was barely even there. And not against Federer, either. Berdych played solidly, but Federer gave that match away. Match point on his own serve in the third-set tiebreak? You would have bet your house on Federer winning that. However, Berdych showed real guts in sticking with Fernando Verdasco and taking him off his game. That may have been the Czech's most impressive performance.

Still, if Roddick can play at the level he played against Nadal, even in the first set when he was getting beaten, he has to like his odds against Berdych. One of the big differences between this final and the last one is that Roddick has already beaten Berdych twice this year: once at Brisbane and one in San Jose. Both were tight. In Brisbane, Berdych blew Roddick off the court in the first set, winning 6-1, before Roddick took the next two. In San Jose, Roddick won in two tiebreaks in a match with no breaks of serve.

That may be the kind of match to look for tomorrow. It all depends on a couple of factors. First of all, how on the ball Berdych is when he comes out. He can make a lot of errors, and if that's the way he's playing, expect Roddick to hang back and play more of his newer style, hanging back and keeping the ball in play. But it would not shock me, if Berdych comes out hitting his spots, if that style of play doesn't get Roddick very far. In the event that Berdych starts hitting Andy off the court, it will be interesting to see if he tries the aggressive style he used against Nadal, and to see if he can pull it off as effectively.

In either of those cases, I think Roddick wins this one. He's gotten smarter as he's matured as a tennis player, and I know that he is going to be very reluctant to have this happen to him in two consecutive tournaments. He knows he's facing a talented player who has the capability to beat him just like Ljubicic did. But Roddick will come in prepared, mentally, with a gameplan to ensure that doesn't happen again.

One last note on Roddick - how classy is this guy who commits to do a charity doubles match the night before the final, and doesn't even think of dropping his commitment despite making another surprising run to the last two. I'm really glad to have him still in the game, and hope to have him around at this level for quite a few more years.

The women's final took place this morning, but if you blinked, you may have missed it. It probably doesn't deserve a lot of attention, because while Kim Clijsters managed to find the solid form that she couldn't maintain against her compatriot Justine Henin, her opponent Venus Williams was never in the match. She did not look like the player who had won 17 matches and two tournaments consecutively. It's just like when Clijsters got blitzed at the Australian Open. There's not a lot to learn from the match, because it was just a bad day in the office. Good for Kim for staying solid, but I don't think Venus should be too worried by this loss. She'll get ready for the clay and forget about it.

Miami Semifinals

No real surprises in the two Miami quarterfinals that took place today. The match between Robin Soderling and Mikhail Youzhny was Soderling's to lose. Youzhny didn't win his first service game until his fifth try, near the beginning of the second set. That gave him a momentary boost, when he broke back and evened the set, but it didn't last, as he was broken again and Soderling served it out. The Russian just didn't have any answers for Soderling today.

His opponent tomorrow, may have more to do to counter Soderling's power - he brings plenty of his own power to the table. The match between Tomas Berdych and Fernando Verdasco was exactly the type of match that the big Czech had developed a reputation for losing. Tight, against a tough player. Verdasco jumped out to an early lead and looked like he might take the match in two, but once Berdych took the tiebreak, everything was going his way. Fernando tried to stage a comeback, but Berdych held strong, in a reversal of his usual fortune in these sorts of matches. Soderling definitely has the advantage in their match-up, since he's just been playing imperious tennis so far this week, but Berdych has faced tougher competition, and he's come out on top. That could give him the confidence he needs.

The women's semifinals today were also interesting. Venus Williams dismissed Marion Bartoli without too much fuss, much as Soderling did with Youzhny. But Clijsters and Henin had a match that was even tenser than Verdasco-Berdych. In the end, it was really a lot like their meeting earlier this year in Brisbane. Three sets, a third-set tiebreak, periods of scintillating stuff, and then also some stretches of really poor, error-strewn play from both. In the end, it was a great match though, and Clijsters just barely came away with the victory. Henin has got to be eager to beat her compatriot in her comeback, as she's 0-2 so far, and now their overall head-to-head is 12-12. Doesn't get much closer than that.

Tomorrow, Roddick faces Nadal and Berdych faces Soderling. There is so much riding on it for all four of these players. Nadal hasn't won a title in almost eleven months. Berdych and Roddick haven't won a Masters title in years. Soderling has never won one. Everybody still in the running could use this to bump their career up a level - for everybody but Soderling, up to a level they've been to before but haven't been recently.

Predictions are tough in situations like this. I think Nadal and Soderling have the edge in both their matches, as both are higher ranked and have the edge in the head to head. Nadal is 5-2 against Roddick and Soderling is 4-2 against Berdych. Both Roddick and Berdych are the bookie's underdogs, too. Roddick is 3.1:1 at the moment and Berdych is 3.4:1. But those are relatively tight odds.

Roddick needs to serve well. As close to 70% as he can manage, and to win about 55% of his second serve points. But really, the big stat for Roddick tomorrow is going to be break points. Nadal will give him a couple on serve, and no matter how great he's serving, Nadal is going to get a few looks at breaking him. If Roddick can convert on his chances and save Nadal's chances, he'll win the match. Roddick hasn't really been playing like a big point or big match player for much of the year, despite his great match record. This is going to be his opportunity to show the field that he's a contender day-in, day-out, and not just when he gets particularly fire up, like he undoubtedly will at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.

For Nadal, he needs his knees to stay healthy. He's looked in fine form so far this tournament, but any hint of pain that could threaten his claycourt season is going to worry him a lot. He may be more careful as a result, so he'll need to watch out if Roddick tries to spread the court. He'll need his forehand to be firing, and he'll need to get a read on the Roddick serve, as well as to take care of his own deal on serve. But just like for Andy, it all comes down to the big points. If he can convert more often than his opponent, he's going to win.

It's harder to say as much about the Berdych-Soderling match, as both players have the ability to hit each other off the court. For these guys, it's going to come down to consistency. While Roddick and Nadal can both be expected to be on top of their games from the first ball, Berdych and Soderling can both be prone to lulls. If the other player manages to capitalize when his opponent isn't playing his best, that could be enough to win a set, or even the match. Both players have really high ball tosses on their serve, so a windy evening could wreak havoc with their games.

Anybody could walk away with this title on Sunday, so I'm eager to see what happens tomorrow.

Miami Quarterfinals - Day 2

One of the men's semifinals is set, and it was the one that everyone expected after Novak Djokovic lost in the second round to Olivier Rochus. Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal both breezed through their quarterfinal matches against potentially dangerous, big-hitting opponents. Roddick and Nadal were both just more solid than their opponents on the big points. Roddick broke Almagro three times and Nadal broke Tsonga four, while neither was broken. Tsonga had more chances against Nadal, so he'll feel like he had more of an opportunity. After going 0 for 8 as Tsonga did, Almagro can't feel too bad about missing both of his chances.

It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.

Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.

Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.

The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.

The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.

Quickie: Brisbane and Hawkeye

I had heard that the Brisbane joint ATP/WTA tournament had the equipment for electronic line calling in place this year, but chose not to operate it due to the costs involved. After Andy Roddick's rather verbal complaints about not being able to review calls and especially after the two very important questionable calls during the women's final, I predict that they will pay for the operation in 2011.

The two calls in the Clijsters-Henin match were Henin's ace while serving for the match, which was called out incorrectly, after which Justine double-faulted and eventually was broken. And then, up 6-5 in the tiebreak, Clijsters hit a backhand down the line that was initially called in, then corrected to be out. Unless Brisbane has line-calling in effect in 2011, I bet that the line-up will include significantly fewer stars. There's just no reason for these guys to play somewhere that the technology isn't being used, if they don't have to. And they don't!

Finals Week 1 - Top Players Stumble!

As several of the first tournaments of the week have already been decided (two finals remain to be played), the most interesting thing about the outcomes is how two of the top players in the world seemed to have their victories firmly in-hand, only to let them slip away.

In the Hopman Cup, Andy Murray and Laura Robson were playing Spain for the championship. Before play started, it was easy to guess that Laura Robson would drop her singles match, but then Murray would win his and the pair would win their doubles point. That was how it had gone for most of the week. Laura Robson had lost all of her singles matches, while Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez had yet to drop a set. So when Robson came out on fire and beat Martinez Sanchez in straights, the victory for Great Britain was all but assured.

And then, Murray came out and took the first set from Tommy Robredo 6-1. Imagine the surprise and disappointment that Murray must have felt as he dropped the last two sets, and then proceeded to lose the mixed doubles in two as well. What seemed like a sure thing somehow managed to slip away, in a surprising loss for the Brit. Since this was his only warm-up to the Australian Open (I believe), it's unfortunate that he has to go in on that sort of a defeat.

Another player who isn't going to be thrilled with the result of his last match before the Australian Open was Rafael Nadal. He faced Nikolay Davydenko, who had beaten Federer in the semifinals, and took the first set from the Russian in imperious fashion, losing only one point on serve and breaking Davydenko there times. After that, the match started. The second set went to a tiebreak and Nadal had two match points, but Davydenko pulled it out 10-8. Nadal was then up a break in the decider, but Davydenko leveled and then took the match.

Davydenko becomes one of four people to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, and is riding the longest winning streak on tour. After years of leading the second tier of top players, he seems to have finally reached his proper place among the elite. After his win at the 2009 year end championships in London, and then this display in Doha, Nikolay has to be among the favorites in the Australian Open. There's no reason he can't win, if he can continue this run.

In Brisbane, there was another cracker of a match between Belgians Clijsters and Henin, which went to a third-set tiebreak. While Henin also had match points, Clijsters came out on top, just barely. Considering that this is her first match back after 20 months of retirement and Clijsters is the most recent slam winner on the WTA tour, this is an exciting omen for Henin's comeback. Unfortunately, she has withdrawn from next week's tournament in Sydney. Regardless, she's demonstrated that she's ready to make a run at the Aussie Open, and I'm no sure no one wants to see her in their section of the draw.

The other final in Brisbane will feature Radek Stepanek, who breezed passed a physically-uncomfortable Gael Monfils, and Andy Roddick, who had a much tougher time against Tomas Berdych. Despite having not dropped serve all week long, Roddick was broken in the first game of the match, and then again in the second. He lost the first set 6-1, while failing to convert on four break points.

In the second set, he tightened up his game, raising his first serve winning percentage from 50 to 76 and breaking one time in six tries. After evening the match, Roddick pulled himself together even further. In the final set, he won 82% of his first serve points and 86% on his second. He broke again, and managed to edge out a tough win in three.

In the final, we'll have to the battle of Radek versus Roddick, which is always exciting. They've played six times, with the American winning five, but Stepanek beat Roddick in a tough semifinal in San Jose last year. It should be an exciting match, and I know that Andy would like to get his first title in his first outing this season, but Stepanek is eager to complete his first successful title defense.

In Chennai, last year title-winner is also in the final again, facing Swiss number two Stanislas Wawrinka. Stan "the Man" is 4-0 against Cilic, but they haven't played since 2008, and he has matured a great deal in that time. It should be a fine match, as well.

One last note - Yanina Wickmayer has finished her successful rejoinder to her suspended suspension, by beating top seed Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. Also, that turns out to have been a fine use of a wildcard. The draws are out for next week's tournaments, and I hope to take a look at those tomorrow.

Davydenko on top - Semifinals Week 1

While Soderling's loss to Ginepri may have been the first big upset of the year, the first time the world number one loses is always an upset, just by definition. Federer's loss to Davydenko may have been less surprising, since the Russian just won their most recent meeting at the World Tour Finals at the end of last season, but it is a bit unexpected since Federer had a 12-0 record against him before that.

In the first set, Nikolay put 100% of his first serves into play. Twenty-seven out of twenty-seven, which is just an unbelievable statistic. Davydenko gets Nadal in the final, who breezed past Serbian Viktor Troicki. They also played at the last event in 2009, and Davydenko came out on top. Although I've been a doubter in the past, the Russian may finally be developing the confidence to really make a run to a grand slam title. If he handles Nadal as well as he took care of Federer, it'll definitely put him in contention at the Aussie Open.

The semifinals at all four events this week were all populated by top 5 seeds. In Doha, 4th seed Youzhny was missing. In Chennai, it was top seed Soderling. But in Brisbane, all four top seeds have made it this far. Berdych had his hands full with Tomaz Bellucci, but his experience got him through in three. That said, this was one of the best matches I've seen Bellucci play, and he was just points from victory. I think he has the potential to be a top-ten player.

The other quarter in Brisbane was billed as a tougher contest, but was actually less competitive. Roddick and Gasquet both played well in a match that featured tremendous serving, clutch volleying, and and superb shot-making from the back of the court, as well. But Roddick managed a break in the first set (needing eight chances to do so) and then secured the match in the second-set tiebreak. The Frenchman is playing well, but he has yet to return to his top form. Roddick will play Berdych in the semis, and the pair has a close head-to-head record. It should be a good match.

Also in Brisbane, the women's final has been decided, and it was the match-up that everyone was hoping for. Kim Clijsters will take on her compatriot Justine Henin, back to a final in her first tournament in nearly two years. They've played a great deal in the past, with Henin coming out on top more often than not, but you have to give the edge to Clijsters based solely on recent form.

There's a third Belgian woman in a final this week, amazingly. Yanina Wickmayer will face top-seeded Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. It's good to see her shaking off the minor drug scandal that could have proved to be quite a distraction at the end of last season.

In Chennai, Janko Tipsarevic, who has been frustrated by the success of his compatriot Djokovic (or at least his own relative lack of it) beat young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker, who has had an amazing run in his first tournament of the year. He'll playing defending champ Marin Cilic in the semis, for the privilege of playing the winner of Dudi Sela and Stan Wawrinka. It's tough to bet against a Wawrinka-Cilic final at this point, but as we've seen, upsets do happen.

Tennis 2010 Week 1 - Looking at the Draws

In my last post, I forgot to look at the two women's tournaments that kick the first week of the season off, as well. This was a mistake for a number of reasons, the most exciting of which is that the women's tournament in Brisbane features the return of former number one and seven-time grand slam winner Justine Henin. She opens her comeback with a tough match, facing second seed and twentieth-ranked Nadia Petrova in the first round. I'm sure the Belgian would have preferred somebody a little lower in the rankings, since she may well be rusty after nearly two years off.

However, if she can get past Petrova (Justine does lead their head-to-head 11-2), then she should find herself with relatively smoother sailing. If she makes it all the way to the final, she has a chance of facing Kim Clijsters, who is the top seed for the event! If they play in the final, I expect they'll play a few more times over the course of the year. The other first-round match to keep an eye on is Ana Ivanovic against Jelena Dokic. I'd expect the winner of that match to make the semis.

The other women's tournament of week 1, in Auckland, does not feature as much star power, but it still has some fascinating storylines to watch. My favorite is the continued resurgence of Japanese player Kimiko Date Krumm, whose return from retirement is really much more impressive than Henin's. She opens against Chakvetadze. The other interesting storyline here features the top two Italian players, Schiavone and Pennetta (the number one seed), who are hoping they can build on their Fed Cup win last year by starting 2010 off strong.

Moving on to the men's tourneys, the field in Chennai is arguably the weakest. When world #79 Rajeev Ram is your eighth seed, you know that you don't have the toughest draw in the world. Top seed Soderling shouldn't have too much trouble marching through, despite the presence of some tough players. Former world number 1 Carlos Moya was given a wildcard to the event, and he faces Tipsarevic in the first round. Number eight seed Ram faces the Dutch young player Thiemo De Bakker, who is playing his tenth tour-level match. Last year's finalist and local hope Somdev Devvarman opens with the semifinal that he would have played last year, if Rainer Schuettler hadn't withdrawn with an injury. And defending champion Marin Cilic is the number two seed. All signs point to a Cilic-Soderling final, but of course, anything can happen.

By the way, Soderling ended up losing to Nadal in the final of the Abu Dhabi exhibition event, in two tough sets. That's impressive, since the Swede won their last match comfortably at the year-end championships. Nadal may have been able to use the time off (brief though it was) to get back to fighting fit form. Meanwhile, Federer had to play a consolation match for third place against Ferrer, which he easily won. Guess that invalidates my theory about Federer not giving it his all against Soderling so he could get ready for Doha, doesn't it?

The draw at Doha has three real contenders and a handful of dangerous, slightly crazy, but very entertaining mid-level players. Federer, Nadal, and Davydenko are the one, two, and three seeds. Gulbis, Karlovic, and Koellerer are all scattered throughout the draw, along with 38-year old Younes El Aynaoui, who was given a wildcard. He was playing on the Champions tour last year! He opens against a qualifier, which is about as much as he could hope for. It seems unreasonable to bet against a Federer-Nadal final here, though. Particularly since defending champ Andy Murray opted not to return and instead played in the Hopman Cup.

In Brisbane, on the men's side, Roddick seems to be the number one seed mostlikely to lose before the final. The health of his knee is still a question mark, and there are a ton of lurkers in the draw. Big-serving Aussie lefty Carsten Ball could be Roddick's second round opponent, and he could be followed by Jarkko Nieminen or Richard Gasquet, who are playing one of the most enticing opening round matches.

Other opening rounds to watch are Sam Querrey-James Blake, Marcos Baghdatis-Mardy Fish, and Gael Monfils-Taylor Dent. As if that weren't enough, the draw also features defending champ Radek Stepanek, the other great Aussie hope Bernard Tomic, Thomaz Bellucci from Brazil and Jeremy Chardy from France. This tournament could unfold any number of ways, and it's much harder to get a sense of who will come out on top than at the other two tournaments this week.

Comeback of the Decade!

Despite an unfortunate incident that marred her semifinal (more on that later), Kim Clijsters has completed the most unlikely of comeback tours. In her two warm-up tournaments, she notched wins Bartoli, Schnyder, Azarenka, and Kuznetsova, top 20 players all. She lost to Jelena Jankovic in her first tournament back and Dinara Safina in the second. That was a pretty impressive lead up, but still - I don't think anyone really expected this.

Kimmie notched wins over five seeds on her way to the championship, which is almost as many as she could have faced (six is the maximum, but Kristen Flipkens beat Anabel Medina Garrigues, the 20th seed) including both Williams sisters. Clijsters had beaten both of them in the same tournament once before, at the 2002 end of year championships in Los Angeles. Of course, Venus retired during that match, so there's technically an asterisk there, just like there may be for this match against Serena.

In addition to the sisters Williams, Clijsters beat Bartoli again (seeded 14th), Na Li (18) in the Quarters, and Wozniacki (9) in the final. She only dropped two sets: the first against Bartoli and the second, in a bagel, to Venus. Since she had last played the U.S. Open in 2005, when she won, she has now won her last 14 matches at Flushing Meadows.

Her achievement is stunning, almost unimaginable in any other sport. But it is difficult to say how much of her accomplishment stems from her own talent and effort, and how much is owed to the unusually weak mettle of the players at the top of the women's game, at this particular point in time. Was it a triumph for Kim? Or an indictment of the rest of the talent at the top of the game?

Kim's biggest spoilers when she was in the previous era of her game are either not around to trouble her (Justine Henin, Jennifer Capriati) or no longer at the tops of their games (Sharapova, Mauresmo). And the players who have risen to take their places have proven themselves to be inconsistent. The Serbs, Jankovic and Ivanovic, both made it to number one in the world (Ana even won a slam) but haven't been able to follow it up. The less said about Dinara Safina, the better. Svetlana Kuznetsova frequently beats herself on the court. Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki (the two youngest players in the top ten) have shown promise, but Wozniacki's relatively easy run to the final is the best actual result. Perhaps the field really is weaker?

Then again, let's look at Kim. Back when she was playing regularly, she was one of the best. She was expected to win more than the one major she had managed. She had made 12 semifinals or better in the last 19 majors of the first stage of her career. Those aren't quite Federer numbers, but it shows her consistency and talent. It was her own mental fragility that kept her from making the breakthrough that had been expected of her for years - that and her countrywoman Justine Henin's better play in the big matches.

The other aspect of the first stage of Clijster's career that bears mentioning is how frequently she discussed her post-tennis plans. Even as a teenager, dating Lleyton Hewitt (Kimmie might be the only player on the WTA tour not to have dated Radek Stepanek) she talked about how much she was looking forward to getting married and starting a family. That was why she retired, while she was still in the top five.

In order to do that, she must have been unsatisfied with tennis. Professional tennis is a demanding lifestyle, especially when you're a top player. If you're making it to the semis or finals more often than not, you're playing every day in every week that you have a tournament. It's psychically draining, and it can be tough to keep up with the grind.

It seems to me that Kim is in a much better mental state than she was in 2006, and it's because she got her non-tennis life in order. It's exactly where she wants it to be. She has a loving husband and a beautiful child. Of course, that's not what every tennis player (male or female) wants, but it's definitely what she wanted.

I think that a lot of the top players that she's dealing with now are in the same place, mentally, that Kim was before she "retired." They're very talented, physically fit, but their heads aren't in the right place, so it's tougher to string together points, games, and matches. While Serena and Venus had some trouble in this particular tournament, they have been better in the big matches than the other players over the course of the past few years, and that's because they've done a better job of managing their on-court lives with what they do off the court.

In the end, Kim's comeback is not an indictment of the talent of the top players on tour, but it doesn't say good things about the mental states of their games. The other players at the top of the game need to learn how to manage their tennis lives without sacrificing every else. Kim demonstrates how strong you can be on the court, even when shaking off two years' worth of rust, when you're happy off the court as well.