Miami Final

Tomorrow, the men's final in Miami comes to a close. Once again, Roddick made an unlikely run, beating one top ten player en route to his final. In this case, his win was a bit more significant - Nadal here, while his toughest opponent in Indian Wells was a moderately choking Robin Soderling. Here, there was no choke, and that's the biggest difference. A few weeks ago, Roddick hung around and Soderling managed to lose, but Roddick took the match - emphatically - from Nadal on friday. That may prove to be all the difference.

Still, the situation is eerily similar. Roddick is the favorite, with his higher ranking and favorable head to head against his opponent. He had the momentum going in to the final against Ljubicic, whose tournament ultimately turned out to be a fluke, or maybe just one of the last big runs of a former top three player. Whatever it was, it was too much for Roddick to handle, despite the fact that everything seemed like it should have gone his way. Even the way he lost - Roddick was leading the tour in tiebreaks, but he couldn't pull out either against Ljubicic.

His opponent is a similar sort of player. Big guy, big server, and kind of a career underachiever. Not to mention, Berdych had a tougher road to the final. He went through three top ten players, consecutively - Federer, Verdasco, and Soderling. The last of which was a complete beatdown, as the Swede opted not to really show up for the match. Berdych has a ton of talent and can hit the crap out of the ball, but hasn't been playing great in the big moments. The real representative moment of his career has been the Australian Open against Roger Federer, up two sets to none and with a break point to serve for the match, he duffed a volley into the net.

This week, he seems to have shaken some of his demons. Not so much against Soderling, because Berdych played well, but as mentioned, the Swede was barely even there. And not against Federer, either. Berdych played solidly, but Federer gave that match away. Match point on his own serve in the third-set tiebreak? You would have bet your house on Federer winning that. However, Berdych showed real guts in sticking with Fernando Verdasco and taking him off his game. That may have been the Czech's most impressive performance.

Still, if Roddick can play at the level he played against Nadal, even in the first set when he was getting beaten, he has to like his odds against Berdych. One of the big differences between this final and the last one is that Roddick has already beaten Berdych twice this year: once at Brisbane and one in San Jose. Both were tight. In Brisbane, Berdych blew Roddick off the court in the first set, winning 6-1, before Roddick took the next two. In San Jose, Roddick won in two tiebreaks in a match with no breaks of serve.

That may be the kind of match to look for tomorrow. It all depends on a couple of factors. First of all, how on the ball Berdych is when he comes out. He can make a lot of errors, and if that's the way he's playing, expect Roddick to hang back and play more of his newer style, hanging back and keeping the ball in play. But it would not shock me, if Berdych comes out hitting his spots, if that style of play doesn't get Roddick very far. In the event that Berdych starts hitting Andy off the court, it will be interesting to see if he tries the aggressive style he used against Nadal, and to see if he can pull it off as effectively.

In either of those cases, I think Roddick wins this one. He's gotten smarter as he's matured as a tennis player, and I know that he is going to be very reluctant to have this happen to him in two consecutive tournaments. He knows he's facing a talented player who has the capability to beat him just like Ljubicic did. But Roddick will come in prepared, mentally, with a gameplan to ensure that doesn't happen again.

One last note on Roddick - how classy is this guy who commits to do a charity doubles match the night before the final, and doesn't even think of dropping his commitment despite making another surprising run to the last two. I'm really glad to have him still in the game, and hope to have him around at this level for quite a few more years.

The women's final took place this morning, but if you blinked, you may have missed it. It probably doesn't deserve a lot of attention, because while Kim Clijsters managed to find the solid form that she couldn't maintain against her compatriot Justine Henin, her opponent Venus Williams was never in the match. She did not look like the player who had won 17 matches and two tournaments consecutively. It's just like when Clijsters got blitzed at the Australian Open. There's not a lot to learn from the match, because it was just a bad day in the office. Good for Kim for staying solid, but I don't think Venus should be too worried by this loss. She'll get ready for the clay and forget about it.