The women's semifinals took place today, and they were pretty surprising. Three of the four players were shaky and off their game today - and the one who wasn't was Vera Zvonareva. Top seed Caroline Wozniacki played her first shaky match of the tournament, and the Russian was there to capitalize. Credit to Vera, who played a very strong, solid match from a player who hasn't been known for her consistency in the past, but Wozniacki was strangely not present today. For somebody who has played so solid from day one against some very tough opponents in an array of conditions, I'm not sure what it was that got to her today. But Zvonareva has emerged as one of the best stories of the tournament, since she's made consecutive grand slam finals and has emerged as the Russian. No small feat for a player who was bawling on the court last year, tearing off her own leg strappings after missing six match points against Flavia Pennetta.
And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.
Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.
As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.
The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.
Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!
Showing posts with label venus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label venus. Show all posts
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
Madrid Quartefinals
Tomorrow we have the quarterfinals in the final clay-court Masters event of the year. It's a fairly strong lineup, but a few of the faces that one might have expected to find there are out, either due to injury or fatigue. But three of the four quarterfinal matches feature six players who have to be considered favorites to make the second week at Roland Garros.
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Miami Final
Tomorrow, the men's final in Miami comes to a close. Once again, Roddick made an unlikely run, beating one top ten player en route to his final. In this case, his win was a bit more significant - Nadal here, while his toughest opponent in Indian Wells was a moderately choking Robin Soderling. Here, there was no choke, and that's the biggest difference. A few weeks ago, Roddick hung around and Soderling managed to lose, but Roddick took the match - emphatically - from Nadal on friday. That may prove to be all the difference.
Still, the situation is eerily similar. Roddick is the favorite, with his higher ranking and favorable head to head against his opponent. He had the momentum going in to the final against Ljubicic, whose tournament ultimately turned out to be a fluke, or maybe just one of the last big runs of a former top three player. Whatever it was, it was too much for Roddick to handle, despite the fact that everything seemed like it should have gone his way. Even the way he lost - Roddick was leading the tour in tiebreaks, but he couldn't pull out either against Ljubicic.
His opponent is a similar sort of player. Big guy, big server, and kind of a career underachiever. Not to mention, Berdych had a tougher road to the final. He went through three top ten players, consecutively - Federer, Verdasco, and Soderling. The last of which was a complete beatdown, as the Swede opted not to really show up for the match. Berdych has a ton of talent and can hit the crap out of the ball, but hasn't been playing great in the big moments. The real representative moment of his career has been the Australian Open against Roger Federer, up two sets to none and with a break point to serve for the match, he duffed a volley into the net.
This week, he seems to have shaken some of his demons. Not so much against Soderling, because Berdych played well, but as mentioned, the Swede was barely even there. And not against Federer, either. Berdych played solidly, but Federer gave that match away. Match point on his own serve in the third-set tiebreak? You would have bet your house on Federer winning that. However, Berdych showed real guts in sticking with Fernando Verdasco and taking him off his game. That may have been the Czech's most impressive performance.
Still, if Roddick can play at the level he played against Nadal, even in the first set when he was getting beaten, he has to like his odds against Berdych. One of the big differences between this final and the last one is that Roddick has already beaten Berdych twice this year: once at Brisbane and one in San Jose. Both were tight. In Brisbane, Berdych blew Roddick off the court in the first set, winning 6-1, before Roddick took the next two. In San Jose, Roddick won in two tiebreaks in a match with no breaks of serve.
That may be the kind of match to look for tomorrow. It all depends on a couple of factors. First of all, how on the ball Berdych is when he comes out. He can make a lot of errors, and if that's the way he's playing, expect Roddick to hang back and play more of his newer style, hanging back and keeping the ball in play. But it would not shock me, if Berdych comes out hitting his spots, if that style of play doesn't get Roddick very far. In the event that Berdych starts hitting Andy off the court, it will be interesting to see if he tries the aggressive style he used against Nadal, and to see if he can pull it off as effectively.
In either of those cases, I think Roddick wins this one. He's gotten smarter as he's matured as a tennis player, and I know that he is going to be very reluctant to have this happen to him in two consecutive tournaments. He knows he's facing a talented player who has the capability to beat him just like Ljubicic did. But Roddick will come in prepared, mentally, with a gameplan to ensure that doesn't happen again.
One last note on Roddick - how classy is this guy who commits to do a charity doubles match the night before the final, and doesn't even think of dropping his commitment despite making another surprising run to the last two. I'm really glad to have him still in the game, and hope to have him around at this level for quite a few more years.
The women's final took place this morning, but if you blinked, you may have missed it. It probably doesn't deserve a lot of attention, because while Kim Clijsters managed to find the solid form that she couldn't maintain against her compatriot Justine Henin, her opponent Venus Williams was never in the match. She did not look like the player who had won 17 matches and two tournaments consecutively. It's just like when Clijsters got blitzed at the Australian Open. There's not a lot to learn from the match, because it was just a bad day in the office. Good for Kim for staying solid, but I don't think Venus should be too worried by this loss. She'll get ready for the clay and forget about it.
Still, the situation is eerily similar. Roddick is the favorite, with his higher ranking and favorable head to head against his opponent. He had the momentum going in to the final against Ljubicic, whose tournament ultimately turned out to be a fluke, or maybe just one of the last big runs of a former top three player. Whatever it was, it was too much for Roddick to handle, despite the fact that everything seemed like it should have gone his way. Even the way he lost - Roddick was leading the tour in tiebreaks, but he couldn't pull out either against Ljubicic.
His opponent is a similar sort of player. Big guy, big server, and kind of a career underachiever. Not to mention, Berdych had a tougher road to the final. He went through three top ten players, consecutively - Federer, Verdasco, and Soderling. The last of which was a complete beatdown, as the Swede opted not to really show up for the match. Berdych has a ton of talent and can hit the crap out of the ball, but hasn't been playing great in the big moments. The real representative moment of his career has been the Australian Open against Roger Federer, up two sets to none and with a break point to serve for the match, he duffed a volley into the net.
This week, he seems to have shaken some of his demons. Not so much against Soderling, because Berdych played well, but as mentioned, the Swede was barely even there. And not against Federer, either. Berdych played solidly, but Federer gave that match away. Match point on his own serve in the third-set tiebreak? You would have bet your house on Federer winning that. However, Berdych showed real guts in sticking with Fernando Verdasco and taking him off his game. That may have been the Czech's most impressive performance.
Still, if Roddick can play at the level he played against Nadal, even in the first set when he was getting beaten, he has to like his odds against Berdych. One of the big differences between this final and the last one is that Roddick has already beaten Berdych twice this year: once at Brisbane and one in San Jose. Both were tight. In Brisbane, Berdych blew Roddick off the court in the first set, winning 6-1, before Roddick took the next two. In San Jose, Roddick won in two tiebreaks in a match with no breaks of serve.
That may be the kind of match to look for tomorrow. It all depends on a couple of factors. First of all, how on the ball Berdych is when he comes out. He can make a lot of errors, and if that's the way he's playing, expect Roddick to hang back and play more of his newer style, hanging back and keeping the ball in play. But it would not shock me, if Berdych comes out hitting his spots, if that style of play doesn't get Roddick very far. In the event that Berdych starts hitting Andy off the court, it will be interesting to see if he tries the aggressive style he used against Nadal, and to see if he can pull it off as effectively.
In either of those cases, I think Roddick wins this one. He's gotten smarter as he's matured as a tennis player, and I know that he is going to be very reluctant to have this happen to him in two consecutive tournaments. He knows he's facing a talented player who has the capability to beat him just like Ljubicic did. But Roddick will come in prepared, mentally, with a gameplan to ensure that doesn't happen again.
One last note on Roddick - how classy is this guy who commits to do a charity doubles match the night before the final, and doesn't even think of dropping his commitment despite making another surprising run to the last two. I'm really glad to have him still in the game, and hope to have him around at this level for quite a few more years.
The women's final took place this morning, but if you blinked, you may have missed it. It probably doesn't deserve a lot of attention, because while Kim Clijsters managed to find the solid form that she couldn't maintain against her compatriot Justine Henin, her opponent Venus Williams was never in the match. She did not look like the player who had won 17 matches and two tournaments consecutively. It's just like when Clijsters got blitzed at the Australian Open. There's not a lot to learn from the match, because it was just a bad day in the office. Good for Kim for staying solid, but I don't think Venus should be too worried by this loss. She'll get ready for the clay and forget about it.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Miami Semifinals
No real surprises in the two Miami quarterfinals that took place today. The match between Robin Soderling and Mikhail Youzhny was Soderling's to lose. Youzhny didn't win his first service game until his fifth try, near the beginning of the second set. That gave him a momentary boost, when he broke back and evened the set, but it didn't last, as he was broken again and Soderling served it out. The Russian just didn't have any answers for Soderling today.
His opponent tomorrow, may have more to do to counter Soderling's power - he brings plenty of his own power to the table. The match between Tomas Berdych and Fernando Verdasco was exactly the type of match that the big Czech had developed a reputation for losing. Tight, against a tough player. Verdasco jumped out to an early lead and looked like he might take the match in two, but once Berdych took the tiebreak, everything was going his way. Fernando tried to stage a comeback, but Berdych held strong, in a reversal of his usual fortune in these sorts of matches. Soderling definitely has the advantage in their match-up, since he's just been playing imperious tennis so far this week, but Berdych has faced tougher competition, and he's come out on top. That could give him the confidence he needs.
The women's semifinals today were also interesting. Venus Williams dismissed Marion Bartoli without too much fuss, much as Soderling did with Youzhny. But Clijsters and Henin had a match that was even tenser than Verdasco-Berdych. In the end, it was really a lot like their meeting earlier this year in Brisbane. Three sets, a third-set tiebreak, periods of scintillating stuff, and then also some stretches of really poor, error-strewn play from both. In the end, it was a great match though, and Clijsters just barely came away with the victory. Henin has got to be eager to beat her compatriot in her comeback, as she's 0-2 so far, and now their overall head-to-head is 12-12. Doesn't get much closer than that.
Tomorrow, Roddick faces Nadal and Berdych faces Soderling. There is so much riding on it for all four of these players. Nadal hasn't won a title in almost eleven months. Berdych and Roddick haven't won a Masters title in years. Soderling has never won one. Everybody still in the running could use this to bump their career up a level - for everybody but Soderling, up to a level they've been to before but haven't been recently.
Predictions are tough in situations like this. I think Nadal and Soderling have the edge in both their matches, as both are higher ranked and have the edge in the head to head. Nadal is 5-2 against Roddick and Soderling is 4-2 against Berdych. Both Roddick and Berdych are the bookie's underdogs, too. Roddick is 3.1:1 at the moment and Berdych is 3.4:1. But those are relatively tight odds.
Roddick needs to serve well. As close to 70% as he can manage, and to win about 55% of his second serve points. But really, the big stat for Roddick tomorrow is going to be break points. Nadal will give him a couple on serve, and no matter how great he's serving, Nadal is going to get a few looks at breaking him. If Roddick can convert on his chances and save Nadal's chances, he'll win the match. Roddick hasn't really been playing like a big point or big match player for much of the year, despite his great match record. This is going to be his opportunity to show the field that he's a contender day-in, day-out, and not just when he gets particularly fire up, like he undoubtedly will at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
For Nadal, he needs his knees to stay healthy. He's looked in fine form so far this tournament, but any hint of pain that could threaten his claycourt season is going to worry him a lot. He may be more careful as a result, so he'll need to watch out if Roddick tries to spread the court. He'll need his forehand to be firing, and he'll need to get a read on the Roddick serve, as well as to take care of his own deal on serve. But just like for Andy, it all comes down to the big points. If he can convert more often than his opponent, he's going to win.
It's harder to say as much about the Berdych-Soderling match, as both players have the ability to hit each other off the court. For these guys, it's going to come down to consistency. While Roddick and Nadal can both be expected to be on top of their games from the first ball, Berdych and Soderling can both be prone to lulls. If the other player manages to capitalize when his opponent isn't playing his best, that could be enough to win a set, or even the match. Both players have really high ball tosses on their serve, so a windy evening could wreak havoc with their games.
Anybody could walk away with this title on Sunday, so I'm eager to see what happens tomorrow.
His opponent tomorrow, may have more to do to counter Soderling's power - he brings plenty of his own power to the table. The match between Tomas Berdych and Fernando Verdasco was exactly the type of match that the big Czech had developed a reputation for losing. Tight, against a tough player. Verdasco jumped out to an early lead and looked like he might take the match in two, but once Berdych took the tiebreak, everything was going his way. Fernando tried to stage a comeback, but Berdych held strong, in a reversal of his usual fortune in these sorts of matches. Soderling definitely has the advantage in their match-up, since he's just been playing imperious tennis so far this week, but Berdych has faced tougher competition, and he's come out on top. That could give him the confidence he needs.
The women's semifinals today were also interesting. Venus Williams dismissed Marion Bartoli without too much fuss, much as Soderling did with Youzhny. But Clijsters and Henin had a match that was even tenser than Verdasco-Berdych. In the end, it was really a lot like their meeting earlier this year in Brisbane. Three sets, a third-set tiebreak, periods of scintillating stuff, and then also some stretches of really poor, error-strewn play from both. In the end, it was a great match though, and Clijsters just barely came away with the victory. Henin has got to be eager to beat her compatriot in her comeback, as she's 0-2 so far, and now their overall head-to-head is 12-12. Doesn't get much closer than that.
Tomorrow, Roddick faces Nadal and Berdych faces Soderling. There is so much riding on it for all four of these players. Nadal hasn't won a title in almost eleven months. Berdych and Roddick haven't won a Masters title in years. Soderling has never won one. Everybody still in the running could use this to bump their career up a level - for everybody but Soderling, up to a level they've been to before but haven't been recently.
Predictions are tough in situations like this. I think Nadal and Soderling have the edge in both their matches, as both are higher ranked and have the edge in the head to head. Nadal is 5-2 against Roddick and Soderling is 4-2 against Berdych. Both Roddick and Berdych are the bookie's underdogs, too. Roddick is 3.1:1 at the moment and Berdych is 3.4:1. But those are relatively tight odds.
Roddick needs to serve well. As close to 70% as he can manage, and to win about 55% of his second serve points. But really, the big stat for Roddick tomorrow is going to be break points. Nadal will give him a couple on serve, and no matter how great he's serving, Nadal is going to get a few looks at breaking him. If Roddick can convert on his chances and save Nadal's chances, he'll win the match. Roddick hasn't really been playing like a big point or big match player for much of the year, despite his great match record. This is going to be his opportunity to show the field that he's a contender day-in, day-out, and not just when he gets particularly fire up, like he undoubtedly will at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
For Nadal, he needs his knees to stay healthy. He's looked in fine form so far this tournament, but any hint of pain that could threaten his claycourt season is going to worry him a lot. He may be more careful as a result, so he'll need to watch out if Roddick tries to spread the court. He'll need his forehand to be firing, and he'll need to get a read on the Roddick serve, as well as to take care of his own deal on serve. But just like for Andy, it all comes down to the big points. If he can convert more often than his opponent, he's going to win.
It's harder to say as much about the Berdych-Soderling match, as both players have the ability to hit each other off the court. For these guys, it's going to come down to consistency. While Roddick and Nadal can both be expected to be on top of their games from the first ball, Berdych and Soderling can both be prone to lulls. If the other player manages to capitalize when his opponent isn't playing his best, that could be enough to win a set, or even the match. Both players have really high ball tosses on their serve, so a windy evening could wreak havoc with their games.
Anybody could walk away with this title on Sunday, so I'm eager to see what happens tomorrow.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Miami Quarterfinals - Day 2
One of the men's semifinals is set, and it was the one that everyone expected after Novak Djokovic lost in the second round to Olivier Rochus. Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal both breezed through their quarterfinal matches against potentially dangerous, big-hitting opponents. Roddick and Nadal were both just more solid than their opponents on the big points. Roddick broke Almagro three times and Nadal broke Tsonga four, while neither was broken. Tsonga had more chances against Nadal, so he'll feel like he had more of an opportunity. After going 0 for 8 as Tsonga did, Almagro can't feel too bad about missing both of his chances.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
It will be interesting to see how things go in the Roddick-Nadal match-up on Friday. Roddick is the better server, Nadal the better returner, but their gameplans off the ground are not that different at this point. Nadal might just do it better. Roddick will have to be serving well and be able to take advantage of any lapse in Nadal's play during their semifinal meeting.
Based on the remaining competition in the other half of the draw, it seems likely that the winner of that semi will win the final as well, but who is to say? On the other side, with the quarterfinal matches still to be decided, we have Tomas Berdych against Fernando Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny against Robin Soderling.
Berdych and Verdasco should be an interesting match-up. Big forehand against big forehand, and since Verdasco is a lefty, I expect that there will be a lot of forehand to backhand exchanges while the backhander tries to run around and hit a forehand down the line. That is, if the other player doesn't smack a winner first. Berdych has the edge in experience at this level, and he has a better serve as well, but Verdasco is the better mover by a pretty good margin. It should be an interesting match, and tough to call. Berdych could easily still be so relieved from his win over Federer that he'll be hung over for this match.
The other quarter appears to be a lock for Robin Soderling. Youzhny is a talented player and a one-time slam semifinalist, back at the U.S. Open in 2006, but his career has been characterized in large part the same way that Soderling's was until last year - lots of talent, but unable to win the big matches. In fact, prior to the French Open last year, Youzhny and Soderling had very similar careers and places in the tennis hierarchy. The Swede, of course, has ascended pretty near the top, while Youzhny is still not quite at that level. As far as the actual match-up goes, I don't think Youzhny is as capable of handling Soderling's power off the ground. Youzhny can't have any lapses like he did against Wawrinka, earlier in the tournament, but he should be well-rested, since he got a retirement from Fish in the last round. The edge goes to Soderling here, no question, but Youzhny could make it interesting if he plays at his best.
The women's semifinals are also going to take place tomorrow, and I got three of my four picks right. The only spoiler was Marion Bartoli, who upset Yanina Wickmeyer to get a shot at Venus, in a rematch of the Wimbledon final from a few years ago. I predict the same result as before. The other semi is much more difficult to guess, as the remaining two Belgians square off. Clijsters beat Henin in their only match since their dual comebacks so far, but it was so tight and Justine has played a lot in the intervening time. Really, too close to call. Justine looked really solid against Wozniacki, but Clijsters knows Henin's game better and won't get as frustrated. That's a popcorn match, no question. And then the winner, in all likelihood, gets Venus? The only way to improve that lineup is to replace Bartoli with Serena, and that's the most star-studded and power-packed tennis semifinal you could have in the current game. So let's see how Bartoli can do in trying to spoil the dream final that everyone (especially the promoters) want to see.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Week 8 Mid-week Update
In two of the three tournaments going on this week, the majority of the top players have been upset. Not quite what the promoters were hoping for when only three or four seeds even make it to the quarterfinals, which was the case in both Dubai and Del Ray Beach.
In Dubai, which is probably the richest non-Masters Series event on tour, Novak Djokovic was the only top 10 player to make the semifinals. He barely did, dropping the first set in his quarterfinal match-up against Ivan Ljubicic and then squeaking out the second set before bulldozing his way through the third. Ljubicic had already beaten Tsonga, who appeared to be struggling with some injury problems. Davydenko was similarly hobbled, forced to retire against Michael Berrer with a bad left wrist.
Andy Murray had lost in the second round to an inspired Janko Tipsarevic, who then couldn't put it together the next day and lost to Youzhny in straight sets. Youzhny probably was expected to face Marin Cilic, one of the hottest players on tour, but he too was felled to Jurgen Melzer, who was having a spectacular day. The final quarterfinalist is Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Berrer in the quarters.
If Djokovic wasn't still in the tournament (and if he doesn't make it to the final) the organizers and tennis fans who paid to see the top tier of the game is going to be disappointed. He really should walk away with this one, though. Youzhny, Russia's number two, is looking like he's ready for an assault on the top ten once more. Good to see him back at the top of his game. And Baghdatis, too. Both of these guys were about four places lower in the rankings a year ago, so I'm glad to see them improving.
Things are also fairly topsy-turvy in Del Ray, although in this case I imagine that the organizers are pretty happy with the surprises left in the draw. With the weather, not so much. The week has been rain-soaked and it's been difficult to get in any continuous play, but at the quarterfinal stage, there are two Americans left, and that's something. Mardy Fish and James Blake are still standing, and they'll each have tough but winnable matches tomorrow. Fish goes up against Jeremy Chardy, who is a big hitter but has been having a terrible year, and Blake takes on Ivo Karlovic.
If the weather continues to be muggy, it should slow down Karlovic's serve and give Blake a better chance of blocking some returns back, and should also give him time to wind up on his forehand. In any case, this match will feature a ton of aces for the big man, because Blake goes for as much off the return as anyone, and ends up getting aced a lot. Except for their very first meeting, Karlovic has never hit fewer than 22 aces against Blake.
The top half of the draw features a handful of players who would each be lucky to make it to the final. Ernests Gulbis beat the player who knocked out top seed Tommy Haas, Benjamin Becker got a walkover from Wayne Odesnik, Leonardo won the battle of the Mayers against Florian, and Jarkko Nieminen absolutely ran away with the match after losing the first set to Evgeny Korolev. It's a pick-em, up here. Whoever can come out on top from this four will really get a boost, both in terms of ranking and momentum.
The only place where sanity seems to have reigned is in Acapulco, where all of the semifinalists are clay-court players that you might expect to see in this situation. Juan Monaco ousted top seed Fernando Verdasco, who despite being Spanish is not the greatest clay-courter around. Ferrero continued his ridiculous run, beating twice-defending champ Nicolas Almagro. His winning streak is now 13 matches long, which is by far the longest on tour at the moment. Monaco is a tough competitor, but unless Ferrero's 30-year old body is starting to get tired, it's not easy to see him beating this Spaniard, who is right at home on clay.
The bottom half of the draw has an equally appetizing semifinal, which features David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. It's a match-up of a big, big hitter and a big returner, so it'll be interesting to see if Gonzo can hit his spots better than Ferrer can run them down.
It's also worth noting that in Acapulco, defending champ and top seed Venus Williams recovered from from being down 5-3 in the third set against 25-year old Spanish qualifier Laura Pous Tio, who is ranked 399 in the world, to win the set and the match 7-5. Gutsy save from the elder Williams. After making it through that tough match, can she go on to defend her second title consecutively?
In Dubai, which is probably the richest non-Masters Series event on tour, Novak Djokovic was the only top 10 player to make the semifinals. He barely did, dropping the first set in his quarterfinal match-up against Ivan Ljubicic and then squeaking out the second set before bulldozing his way through the third. Ljubicic had already beaten Tsonga, who appeared to be struggling with some injury problems. Davydenko was similarly hobbled, forced to retire against Michael Berrer with a bad left wrist.
Andy Murray had lost in the second round to an inspired Janko Tipsarevic, who then couldn't put it together the next day and lost to Youzhny in straight sets. Youzhny probably was expected to face Marin Cilic, one of the hottest players on tour, but he too was felled to Jurgen Melzer, who was having a spectacular day. The final quarterfinalist is Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Berrer in the quarters.
If Djokovic wasn't still in the tournament (and if he doesn't make it to the final) the organizers and tennis fans who paid to see the top tier of the game is going to be disappointed. He really should walk away with this one, though. Youzhny, Russia's number two, is looking like he's ready for an assault on the top ten once more. Good to see him back at the top of his game. And Baghdatis, too. Both of these guys were about four places lower in the rankings a year ago, so I'm glad to see them improving.
Things are also fairly topsy-turvy in Del Ray, although in this case I imagine that the organizers are pretty happy with the surprises left in the draw. With the weather, not so much. The week has been rain-soaked and it's been difficult to get in any continuous play, but at the quarterfinal stage, there are two Americans left, and that's something. Mardy Fish and James Blake are still standing, and they'll each have tough but winnable matches tomorrow. Fish goes up against Jeremy Chardy, who is a big hitter but has been having a terrible year, and Blake takes on Ivo Karlovic.
If the weather continues to be muggy, it should slow down Karlovic's serve and give Blake a better chance of blocking some returns back, and should also give him time to wind up on his forehand. In any case, this match will feature a ton of aces for the big man, because Blake goes for as much off the return as anyone, and ends up getting aced a lot. Except for their very first meeting, Karlovic has never hit fewer than 22 aces against Blake.
The top half of the draw features a handful of players who would each be lucky to make it to the final. Ernests Gulbis beat the player who knocked out top seed Tommy Haas, Benjamin Becker got a walkover from Wayne Odesnik, Leonardo won the battle of the Mayers against Florian, and Jarkko Nieminen absolutely ran away with the match after losing the first set to Evgeny Korolev. It's a pick-em, up here. Whoever can come out on top from this four will really get a boost, both in terms of ranking and momentum.
The only place where sanity seems to have reigned is in Acapulco, where all of the semifinalists are clay-court players that you might expect to see in this situation. Juan Monaco ousted top seed Fernando Verdasco, who despite being Spanish is not the greatest clay-courter around. Ferrero continued his ridiculous run, beating twice-defending champ Nicolas Almagro. His winning streak is now 13 matches long, which is by far the longest on tour at the moment. Monaco is a tough competitor, but unless Ferrero's 30-year old body is starting to get tired, it's not easy to see him beating this Spaniard, who is right at home on clay.
The bottom half of the draw has an equally appetizing semifinal, which features David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. It's a match-up of a big, big hitter and a big returner, so it'll be interesting to see if Gonzo can hit his spots better than Ferrer can run them down.
It's also worth noting that in Acapulco, defending champ and top seed Venus Williams recovered from from being down 5-3 in the third set against 25-year old Spanish qualifier Laura Pous Tio, who is ranked 399 in the world, to win the set and the match 7-5. Gutsy save from the elder Williams. After making it through that tough match, can she go on to defend her second title consecutively?
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Week 7 Finals Preview
The finals are set for this week 7, and there's going to be at least one new title-winner this year. In France, they've got an all-countrymen final, but it doesn't feature any of the top three Frenchman in the draw, including Tsonga, Monfils, and Simon. But the French crowd should be pretty happy with their final between Benneteau (the eighth seed) and Llodra, who made the final here last year. This is Benneteau's fourth singles final, and he has yet to win one. Llodra lost this final last year, but he has three to his name. His last came in Rotterdam in 2008, where he had beaten Soderling in the final. Coincidentally, Soderling was Llodra's victim in the quarters here in Marseille.
I'm surprised that these two Frenchmen, both in their late twenties, have never played each other on tour before. They played in a futures tournament ten years ago which Llodra won, but it's tough to put much stock in that. Benneteau had the harder road, facing Monfils and Tsonga, while Llodra had to face the relatively minor foe Mischa Zverev in the semis. But Benneteau is the higher-ranked player here, and has been on better form so far this year. This is largely a pick-em, and I hope it will be a good match. It's been a good week for both players, as they are both also in the doubles final, playing together. It should be interesting for them to play that right after completing the singles.
In Buenos Aires, they've got the best match-up they could have hoped for in the final, once David Nalbandian withdrew from the tournament with injury before his quarterfinal against Albert Montanes. Ferrer then steamrolled a well-rested Montanes in the semis, after beating Igor Andreev that same morning, when matches had been pushed back due to rain. Really, that's an astounding performance from Ferrer, to play two-matches in one day, the second against a very well-rested opponent, and win it 6-1, 6-1. He'll be facing Juan Carlos Ferrero, last week's winner in Costa do Sauipe. The only set dropped by either of these players was by Ferrero, inexplicably, in the quarters against Santiago Ventura. The Ferrer-Ferrero rivalry, which is my second-favorite in the sport, name-wise, after Wozniak-Wozniacki, has been pretty one-sided. Ferrer is 5-1 against the older, more experienced Spaniard. Add to that the fact that last year, Ferrer was the highest-ranked player who did not win a title, and the "Bulldog" will be eager to notch his first tour win since the Netherlands in 2008.
An all-French final, an all-Spanish final, and in Memphis, an all-American final. Sam Querrey and John Isner, the two young guns of U.S. Tennis, will be facing here for the first time. They've had very different years up to this tournament, with the tall man winning his first title and going 8-1 to get here. On the other hand, Querrey was 3-4, and is just now getting his record above 500. Querrey is recovering from a pretty terrible arm injury that ended his season last year, so it's good for him to make the final here. While he was struggling to get his year kick-started, Isner was on fire, and ultimately replaced Querrey as the number 2 American behind Andy Roddick. This should also be an interesting match, as these two players are close, and will be playing together in the final after they play against each other in the singles, just like Benneteau and Llodra. I don't know of the last time that's happened twice in the same week, but it hasn't happened recently, to the best of my knowledge.
It's also worth mentioning that Venus Williams won her first title of the year in Dubai, which was also her first successful title defense since Wimbledon in 2007-2008. She beat Victoria Azarenka in the final, and did not drop a set en route to the title. Azarenka may have been the seed that she faced, but it was still an impressive run. Sharapova also won in Memphis without dropping a set, and never even played a tiebreak. She was taken to 7-5 only once, by Elena Baltacha. It's a great way to kick-start the year for both players.
The women's final in Bogata has not yet been decided, and it doesn't feature any big-name players like Sharapova or Venus. But it does have a 20-year old Colombian player named Mariana Duque Marino who may be making her first big splash on the tour level. She's won a bundle of lower-tier ITF titles, but has yet to make much noise at the top. She faces German Angelique Kerber, who is also going for her first overall WTA title. With the home crowd's support, Marino may have the advantage over another first-time finalist. But that's why you play the tennis.
I'm surprised that these two Frenchmen, both in their late twenties, have never played each other on tour before. They played in a futures tournament ten years ago which Llodra won, but it's tough to put much stock in that. Benneteau had the harder road, facing Monfils and Tsonga, while Llodra had to face the relatively minor foe Mischa Zverev in the semis. But Benneteau is the higher-ranked player here, and has been on better form so far this year. This is largely a pick-em, and I hope it will be a good match. It's been a good week for both players, as they are both also in the doubles final, playing together. It should be interesting for them to play that right after completing the singles.
In Buenos Aires, they've got the best match-up they could have hoped for in the final, once David Nalbandian withdrew from the tournament with injury before his quarterfinal against Albert Montanes. Ferrer then steamrolled a well-rested Montanes in the semis, after beating Igor Andreev that same morning, when matches had been pushed back due to rain. Really, that's an astounding performance from Ferrer, to play two-matches in one day, the second against a very well-rested opponent, and win it 6-1, 6-1. He'll be facing Juan Carlos Ferrero, last week's winner in Costa do Sauipe. The only set dropped by either of these players was by Ferrero, inexplicably, in the quarters against Santiago Ventura. The Ferrer-Ferrero rivalry, which is my second-favorite in the sport, name-wise, after Wozniak-Wozniacki, has been pretty one-sided. Ferrer is 5-1 against the older, more experienced Spaniard. Add to that the fact that last year, Ferrer was the highest-ranked player who did not win a title, and the "Bulldog" will be eager to notch his first tour win since the Netherlands in 2008.
An all-French final, an all-Spanish final, and in Memphis, an all-American final. Sam Querrey and John Isner, the two young guns of U.S. Tennis, will be facing here for the first time. They've had very different years up to this tournament, with the tall man winning his first title and going 8-1 to get here. On the other hand, Querrey was 3-4, and is just now getting his record above 500. Querrey is recovering from a pretty terrible arm injury that ended his season last year, so it's good for him to make the final here. While he was struggling to get his year kick-started, Isner was on fire, and ultimately replaced Querrey as the number 2 American behind Andy Roddick. This should also be an interesting match, as these two players are close, and will be playing together in the final after they play against each other in the singles, just like Benneteau and Llodra. I don't know of the last time that's happened twice in the same week, but it hasn't happened recently, to the best of my knowledge.
It's also worth mentioning that Venus Williams won her first title of the year in Dubai, which was also her first successful title defense since Wimbledon in 2007-2008. She beat Victoria Azarenka in the final, and did not drop a set en route to the title. Azarenka may have been the seed that she faced, but it was still an impressive run. Sharapova also won in Memphis without dropping a set, and never even played a tiebreak. She was taken to 7-5 only once, by Elena Baltacha. It's a great way to kick-start the year for both players.
The women's final in Bogata has not yet been decided, and it doesn't feature any big-name players like Sharapova or Venus. But it does have a 20-year old Colombian player named Mariana Duque Marino who may be making her first big splash on the tour level. She's won a bundle of lower-tier ITF titles, but has yet to make much noise at the top. She faces German Angelique Kerber, who is also going for her first overall WTA title. With the home crowd's support, Marino may have the advantage over another first-time finalist. But that's why you play the tennis.
Monday, October 26, 2009
WTA Tour Championships in Doha
Amidst all the complaining among players on the ATP tour about the length of the season, and the inevitable backlash, it's easy to forget that the WTA, which starts at the same time as the ATP, is finishing up its season this week. That is a month before the ATP's year-end championships. A bit curious, don't you think?
The format in Doha is the same as it has been for the past several years - the top eight players are split into two groups, with each player facing the other three women in her group in round robin matches. The top two players from each group then advance to the semifinals, which then plays out like a normal tournament. Understandably, the way the two groups are split ends up being essential to the way the tournament unfolds.
The most interesting thing that happened in the rankings this week (and the top ten were going crazy, as we'll see) was that Dinara Safina moved back ahead of Serene Williams to reclaim the number one spot. I don't pretend to understand the way that the WTA rankings system works - it doesn't make sense to me, since Serena didn't do anything after the U.S. Open in 2008, so I don't know why points would drop off, but in any case, Safina is back in the top spot. But whoever advances further in the year-end championship will finish the year as number one. A draw (should both players fail to make the semifinals, for example) goes to Safina, I think. But again, I could be wrong.
So how are the top two players' chances, from the looks of things? Of course, the competition is going to be tough, since this is the top eight players in the world, but the draw seems very, very lopsided. The Maroon group features both of the Williams, both of the slam winners from the past year who are in the top 8 (Serena and Kuznetsova - Clijsters obviously is not ranked that highly), and the fourth player in the group is the best active women's tennis player to have never won a slam, Elena Dementieva, who participated in the best match of the year on the women's side, in her semifinal against Serena at Wimbledon.
The opposite group, the White group (which doesn't feature the Williams sisters, remember) has wayward world number one Dinara Safina, U.S. Open finalist Caroline Wozniacki, Belarussian teenager Victoria Azarenka, and Jelena Jankovic, who squeaked in to the top eight by a razor-thing margin. Just for the record, the Maroon group has 34 grand slam final appearances, 20 grand slam titles, and 2 Olympic Gold Medals. The White group has 5 grand slam finals and no major titles. As I said, maybe a bit lopsided?
Of course, when things are this lop-sided, the players from the Maroon group might kill each other in the round robin and then be exhausted by the semifinals. But the much younger and relatively unproven group does have some up-and-coming talents, as well as players who are anxious to show the world that they deserve to be respected. These are the best eight players in the world right now, and there's no doubt that there is a possibility for some scintillating tennis. I'm looking forward to it.
The format in Doha is the same as it has been for the past several years - the top eight players are split into two groups, with each player facing the other three women in her group in round robin matches. The top two players from each group then advance to the semifinals, which then plays out like a normal tournament. Understandably, the way the two groups are split ends up being essential to the way the tournament unfolds.
The most interesting thing that happened in the rankings this week (and the top ten were going crazy, as we'll see) was that Dinara Safina moved back ahead of Serene Williams to reclaim the number one spot. I don't pretend to understand the way that the WTA rankings system works - it doesn't make sense to me, since Serena didn't do anything after the U.S. Open in 2008, so I don't know why points would drop off, but in any case, Safina is back in the top spot. But whoever advances further in the year-end championship will finish the year as number one. A draw (should both players fail to make the semifinals, for example) goes to Safina, I think. But again, I could be wrong.
So how are the top two players' chances, from the looks of things? Of course, the competition is going to be tough, since this is the top eight players in the world, but the draw seems very, very lopsided. The Maroon group features both of the Williams, both of the slam winners from the past year who are in the top 8 (Serena and Kuznetsova - Clijsters obviously is not ranked that highly), and the fourth player in the group is the best active women's tennis player to have never won a slam, Elena Dementieva, who participated in the best match of the year on the women's side, in her semifinal against Serena at Wimbledon.
The opposite group, the White group (which doesn't feature the Williams sisters, remember) has wayward world number one Dinara Safina, U.S. Open finalist Caroline Wozniacki, Belarussian teenager Victoria Azarenka, and Jelena Jankovic, who squeaked in to the top eight by a razor-thing margin. Just for the record, the Maroon group has 34 grand slam final appearances, 20 grand slam titles, and 2 Olympic Gold Medals. The White group has 5 grand slam finals and no major titles. As I said, maybe a bit lopsided?
Of course, when things are this lop-sided, the players from the Maroon group might kill each other in the round robin and then be exhausted by the semifinals. But the much younger and relatively unproven group does have some up-and-coming talents, as well as players who are anxious to show the world that they deserve to be respected. These are the best eight players in the world right now, and there's no doubt that there is a possibility for some scintillating tennis. I'm looking forward to it.
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