Miami Semifinals

No real surprises in the two Miami quarterfinals that took place today. The match between Robin Soderling and Mikhail Youzhny was Soderling's to lose. Youzhny didn't win his first service game until his fifth try, near the beginning of the second set. That gave him a momentary boost, when he broke back and evened the set, but it didn't last, as he was broken again and Soderling served it out. The Russian just didn't have any answers for Soderling today.

His opponent tomorrow, may have more to do to counter Soderling's power - he brings plenty of his own power to the table. The match between Tomas Berdych and Fernando Verdasco was exactly the type of match that the big Czech had developed a reputation for losing. Tight, against a tough player. Verdasco jumped out to an early lead and looked like he might take the match in two, but once Berdych took the tiebreak, everything was going his way. Fernando tried to stage a comeback, but Berdych held strong, in a reversal of his usual fortune in these sorts of matches. Soderling definitely has the advantage in their match-up, since he's just been playing imperious tennis so far this week, but Berdych has faced tougher competition, and he's come out on top. That could give him the confidence he needs.

The women's semifinals today were also interesting. Venus Williams dismissed Marion Bartoli without too much fuss, much as Soderling did with Youzhny. But Clijsters and Henin had a match that was even tenser than Verdasco-Berdych. In the end, it was really a lot like their meeting earlier this year in Brisbane. Three sets, a third-set tiebreak, periods of scintillating stuff, and then also some stretches of really poor, error-strewn play from both. In the end, it was a great match though, and Clijsters just barely came away with the victory. Henin has got to be eager to beat her compatriot in her comeback, as she's 0-2 so far, and now their overall head-to-head is 12-12. Doesn't get much closer than that.

Tomorrow, Roddick faces Nadal and Berdych faces Soderling. There is so much riding on it for all four of these players. Nadal hasn't won a title in almost eleven months. Berdych and Roddick haven't won a Masters title in years. Soderling has never won one. Everybody still in the running could use this to bump their career up a level - for everybody but Soderling, up to a level they've been to before but haven't been recently.

Predictions are tough in situations like this. I think Nadal and Soderling have the edge in both their matches, as both are higher ranked and have the edge in the head to head. Nadal is 5-2 against Roddick and Soderling is 4-2 against Berdych. Both Roddick and Berdych are the bookie's underdogs, too. Roddick is 3.1:1 at the moment and Berdych is 3.4:1. But those are relatively tight odds.

Roddick needs to serve well. As close to 70% as he can manage, and to win about 55% of his second serve points. But really, the big stat for Roddick tomorrow is going to be break points. Nadal will give him a couple on serve, and no matter how great he's serving, Nadal is going to get a few looks at breaking him. If Roddick can convert on his chances and save Nadal's chances, he'll win the match. Roddick hasn't really been playing like a big point or big match player for much of the year, despite his great match record. This is going to be his opportunity to show the field that he's a contender day-in, day-out, and not just when he gets particularly fire up, like he undoubtedly will at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.

For Nadal, he needs his knees to stay healthy. He's looked in fine form so far this tournament, but any hint of pain that could threaten his claycourt season is going to worry him a lot. He may be more careful as a result, so he'll need to watch out if Roddick tries to spread the court. He'll need his forehand to be firing, and he'll need to get a read on the Roddick serve, as well as to take care of his own deal on serve. But just like for Andy, it all comes down to the big points. If he can convert more often than his opponent, he's going to win.

It's harder to say as much about the Berdych-Soderling match, as both players have the ability to hit each other off the court. For these guys, it's going to come down to consistency. While Roddick and Nadal can both be expected to be on top of their games from the first ball, Berdych and Soderling can both be prone to lulls. If the other player manages to capitalize when his opponent isn't playing his best, that could be enough to win a set, or even the match. Both players have really high ball tosses on their serve, so a windy evening could wreak havoc with their games.

Anybody could walk away with this title on Sunday, so I'm eager to see what happens tomorrow.