Well, the qualifiers are over, and my predictions about the qualifiers were not quite the best. It just goes to show that anything can happen, and that anyone who pretends to be knowledgeable about these sorts of things really won't do that much (if any better) than chance, most of the time. That said, let's take a look at the main draw and see how far off I can be this time.
This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.
It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.
Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.
The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.
Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.
Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.
In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.
Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.
Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!
Showing posts with label davydenko. Show all posts
Showing posts with label davydenko. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Australian Open Draw Analysis
The draw is out; let the predictions begin!
There are so many ways to look at a tennis tournament's drawsheet, but what I like to do first is see what the quarterfinals would look like if the top eight seeds hold up, which has never happened in a grand slam, but is still a good way to get a sense of the where the top players are in the tournament. In-depth analysis will follow.
Top quarter:
Federer (1) vs. Davydenko (6) - There was a time when this would have been a dream for Roger Federer, as the Swiss had owned the Russian in 12 meetings. However, Davydenko has beaten Federer twice in a row in the last few months, and while he's yet to do it at a grand slam, I don't think Fed wanted to see this man waiting for him.
Second quarter:
Djokovic (3) vs. Soderling (8) - A pretty good draw for the Djoker, particularly since Soderling just retired from his match at the Kooyong exhibition with an injury. This would be better if Soderling hadn't just notched his first win against Novak at the year-end championships in London, but with a 5-1 record, he has to be fairly happy with this opponent.
Third quarter:
Roddick (7) vs. Del Potro (4) - Not ideal for Andy, because he has lost to Del Potro on all three times that they've met. However, DelPo has also been struggling with injury and pulled out of a match at Kooyong, so that may work in Roddick's favor. They both fell to Roger Federer last year (Del Po in the quarters, Roddick in the semis) and I'm sure Roddick is particularly happy to be in the other half of the draw, this year.
Fourth quarter:
Murray (5) vs. Nadal (2) - The defending champion ends up with Murray as his quarterfinal opponent, since the Scot let his ranking slip out of the top four last week. Murray is 2-7 against Nadal, but both of those wins did come on hard courts, one at the U.S. Open in 2008. The Spaniard will have to work hard and reverse several months of less-than-stellar form to defend his title.
Of course, to get this point, the top eight have to get through 120 other players first. As I said, the top eight seeds have never all made it to the quarterfinal at a grand slam in the open era, so the odds of at least one of the aforementioned players losing before this stage is almost a hundred percent. But who's going to topple early?
Federer has a favorable draw, as is usually the case with the top-seeded player. His opening round match should actually be the toughest of his first three, no matter who he faces. Fed plays Igor Andreev, who took the Swiss to five sets at the US Open's round of 16 in 2008. Once Roger gets past him, his next two rounds will almost inevitably feature clay court specialists. The fourth round for Federer could be interesting, as he'll likely face either Lleyton Hewitt, Marcos Baghdatis, or Giles Simon. Two of them are former finalists here, and all three want to get back to the top ten.
Davydenko arguably has an even easier road than Federer, as the Russian opens against a qualifier, then players either another qualifier or Carlos Moya, who is also an Aussie Open runner-up, but that was 12 years ago. Davydenko's section has more qualifiers than other eighth of the drew (five) and two of the other three seeds are clay-corut specialists, Juan Monaco and Juan Carlos Ferrero, who isn't quite as far past his prime as Moya, but a deep run from him is not especially likely. Davydenko's likely fourth-round would be against last year's semifinalist Fernando Verdasco, and that could be a tough match. But Verdasco as only one once against Davydenko in seven tries. It's unlikely that Aussie wildcard Carsten Ball opens against Verdasco, because that's a tough ask, but he's got an outside chance of pulling the upset. The other potential spoiler in Davydenko's section is Ernests Gulbis, if he decides to play as well as he's capable.
Djokovic's eighth of the draw is quite favorable. The first seed he might meet is erratic young Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, who hasn't made it past the second round at any grand slam event not held on his home soil. He might meet Mikhail Youzhny or Tommy Robredo next, and while both are excellent players who have at least one win over Djoker, I think that Novak can handle both. The dangerous floaters in this section of the draw are unseeded former slam semifinalists Richard Gasquet and Robby Ginepri.
The last section in the top half of the draw has the least amount of distance between the top two seeds. Particularly if Soderling turns up injured, this may turn out to be Tsonga's section, instead. I know Djokovic would rather face the Swede than Tsonga, since JW has owned Novak in four out of five matches since they first met in the final here two years ago. In any case, Soderling would have to get by tough Spanish lefty Nicolas Almagro to face Tsonga, but Tsonga would have to beat either Taylor Dent, Taylor Haas, Janko Tipsarevic, or young American phenom Ryan Harrison. As a matter of fact, the Tipsarevic-Harrison matchup is the second-most interesting match I can identify out of the 64 in the first round of the draw.
Okay, half way there!
Moving on to the bottom half of the draw, Andy Roddick has been given a minefield of tricky players to work his way through. He opens against the very young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker. De Bakker has not yet won a grand slam match, so it's unlucky for him that his second is against last year's semifinalist. After that, things only get trickier. His second-round opponent is likely going to be Tomaz Bellucci, who is also gaining confidence, even though he has yet to post that big win that will put him on the map. He could face former finalist Rainer Schuettler next, or fellow American Sam Querrey. Sam doesn't seem to have to gotten over his injury quite yet, but he can get his kick-started here. And even once Roddick gets through that group, he'll have to face either Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez, or Evgeny Korolev. By no means an easy task.
Roddick is aiming to play the winner of the sixth section of the draw, which features Del Potro and Cilic as the top two seeds. While a clash between them is likely (during last year's AO, I predicted they would play plenty of times) it all depends on whether Del Potro is healthy. If not, there's a possible opening, and the player who would be most desperate to take it is James Blake. Cilic's little bit of the draw is very interesting, as he opens against Fabrice Santoro is what is basically a consolation match, just so Fabrice can play in a grand slam event in four different decades - 80's, 90's, 00's, and 10's. He is seeded to meet Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who he just faced down in two tiebreaks in the Chennai final a week ago. The other player in this section of the draw is Aussie wildcard Bernard Tomic, who opens against a qualifier, which is as much as he could have hoped for.
Since Murray dropped out of the top four, he may surprised to find himself in Nadal's quarter, rather than his own. But even so, he has to be happy with his draw. His section is conspicuously missing the heavy hitters who blew him off the court at all four majors last year. His first real test will be against either Jurgen Melzer or Jarkko Nieminen, but neither player should trouble him too much. But the player he'll face in the fourth round will be interesting. There's a likely second-round matchup between Daniel Koellerer and Gael Monfils, the two best showmen on the ATP tour. After that, Monfils could face Ferrer, which would be a fascinating contrast of styles. It's going to be tough for either to beat Murray, though.
Finally, to the last section of the draw, we find the most exciting first-round match of the tournament in Nadal's eighth, but it isn't anywhere near him. No, the best first-round matchup is between Radek Stepanek and Ivo Karlovic. You may recall, last year Karlovic lost to Stepanek in a Davis Cup rubber 16-14 in the fifth after playing four tiebreak sets! There is absolutely no way this match can live up to that, but it has potential to be excellent, nonetheless. Nadal actually has a tough draw, himself. He opens against a 30-year old Australian playing the tennis of his life, Peter Luczak. His third round match could be against one of two tough opponents, Phillip Kohlschreiber (who ousted Roddick at that stage in 2008) or John Isner (who just reached his second career tour final). And even after that, he'll have to get through either Stepanek, Karlovic, Mardy Fish, or Ivan Ljubicic.
I'll have more analysis in the coming days, particularly once the qualifiers are placed. Along with my picks, of course!
There are so many ways to look at a tennis tournament's drawsheet, but what I like to do first is see what the quarterfinals would look like if the top eight seeds hold up, which has never happened in a grand slam, but is still a good way to get a sense of the where the top players are in the tournament. In-depth analysis will follow.
Top quarter:
Federer (1) vs. Davydenko (6) - There was a time when this would have been a dream for Roger Federer, as the Swiss had owned the Russian in 12 meetings. However, Davydenko has beaten Federer twice in a row in the last few months, and while he's yet to do it at a grand slam, I don't think Fed wanted to see this man waiting for him.
Second quarter:
Djokovic (3) vs. Soderling (8) - A pretty good draw for the Djoker, particularly since Soderling just retired from his match at the Kooyong exhibition with an injury. This would be better if Soderling hadn't just notched his first win against Novak at the year-end championships in London, but with a 5-1 record, he has to be fairly happy with this opponent.
Third quarter:
Roddick (7) vs. Del Potro (4) - Not ideal for Andy, because he has lost to Del Potro on all three times that they've met. However, DelPo has also been struggling with injury and pulled out of a match at Kooyong, so that may work in Roddick's favor. They both fell to Roger Federer last year (Del Po in the quarters, Roddick in the semis) and I'm sure Roddick is particularly happy to be in the other half of the draw, this year.
Fourth quarter:
Murray (5) vs. Nadal (2) - The defending champion ends up with Murray as his quarterfinal opponent, since the Scot let his ranking slip out of the top four last week. Murray is 2-7 against Nadal, but both of those wins did come on hard courts, one at the U.S. Open in 2008. The Spaniard will have to work hard and reverse several months of less-than-stellar form to defend his title.
Of course, to get this point, the top eight have to get through 120 other players first. As I said, the top eight seeds have never all made it to the quarterfinal at a grand slam in the open era, so the odds of at least one of the aforementioned players losing before this stage is almost a hundred percent. But who's going to topple early?
Federer has a favorable draw, as is usually the case with the top-seeded player. His opening round match should actually be the toughest of his first three, no matter who he faces. Fed plays Igor Andreev, who took the Swiss to five sets at the US Open's round of 16 in 2008. Once Roger gets past him, his next two rounds will almost inevitably feature clay court specialists. The fourth round for Federer could be interesting, as he'll likely face either Lleyton Hewitt, Marcos Baghdatis, or Giles Simon. Two of them are former finalists here, and all three want to get back to the top ten.
Davydenko arguably has an even easier road than Federer, as the Russian opens against a qualifier, then players either another qualifier or Carlos Moya, who is also an Aussie Open runner-up, but that was 12 years ago. Davydenko's section has more qualifiers than other eighth of the drew (five) and two of the other three seeds are clay-corut specialists, Juan Monaco and Juan Carlos Ferrero, who isn't quite as far past his prime as Moya, but a deep run from him is not especially likely. Davydenko's likely fourth-round would be against last year's semifinalist Fernando Verdasco, and that could be a tough match. But Verdasco as only one once against Davydenko in seven tries. It's unlikely that Aussie wildcard Carsten Ball opens against Verdasco, because that's a tough ask, but he's got an outside chance of pulling the upset. The other potential spoiler in Davydenko's section is Ernests Gulbis, if he decides to play as well as he's capable.
Djokovic's eighth of the draw is quite favorable. The first seed he might meet is erratic young Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, who hasn't made it past the second round at any grand slam event not held on his home soil. He might meet Mikhail Youzhny or Tommy Robredo next, and while both are excellent players who have at least one win over Djoker, I think that Novak can handle both. The dangerous floaters in this section of the draw are unseeded former slam semifinalists Richard Gasquet and Robby Ginepri.
The last section in the top half of the draw has the least amount of distance between the top two seeds. Particularly if Soderling turns up injured, this may turn out to be Tsonga's section, instead. I know Djokovic would rather face the Swede than Tsonga, since JW has owned Novak in four out of five matches since they first met in the final here two years ago. In any case, Soderling would have to get by tough Spanish lefty Nicolas Almagro to face Tsonga, but Tsonga would have to beat either Taylor Dent, Taylor Haas, Janko Tipsarevic, or young American phenom Ryan Harrison. As a matter of fact, the Tipsarevic-Harrison matchup is the second-most interesting match I can identify out of the 64 in the first round of the draw.
Okay, half way there!
Moving on to the bottom half of the draw, Andy Roddick has been given a minefield of tricky players to work his way through. He opens against the very young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker. De Bakker has not yet won a grand slam match, so it's unlucky for him that his second is against last year's semifinalist. After that, things only get trickier. His second-round opponent is likely going to be Tomaz Bellucci, who is also gaining confidence, even though he has yet to post that big win that will put him on the map. He could face former finalist Rainer Schuettler next, or fellow American Sam Querrey. Sam doesn't seem to have to gotten over his injury quite yet, but he can get his kick-started here. And even once Roddick gets through that group, he'll have to face either Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez, or Evgeny Korolev. By no means an easy task.
Roddick is aiming to play the winner of the sixth section of the draw, which features Del Potro and Cilic as the top two seeds. While a clash between them is likely (during last year's AO, I predicted they would play plenty of times) it all depends on whether Del Potro is healthy. If not, there's a possible opening, and the player who would be most desperate to take it is James Blake. Cilic's little bit of the draw is very interesting, as he opens against Fabrice Santoro is what is basically a consolation match, just so Fabrice can play in a grand slam event in four different decades - 80's, 90's, 00's, and 10's. He is seeded to meet Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who he just faced down in two tiebreaks in the Chennai final a week ago. The other player in this section of the draw is Aussie wildcard Bernard Tomic, who opens against a qualifier, which is as much as he could have hoped for.
Since Murray dropped out of the top four, he may surprised to find himself in Nadal's quarter, rather than his own. But even so, he has to be happy with his draw. His section is conspicuously missing the heavy hitters who blew him off the court at all four majors last year. His first real test will be against either Jurgen Melzer or Jarkko Nieminen, but neither player should trouble him too much. But the player he'll face in the fourth round will be interesting. There's a likely second-round matchup between Daniel Koellerer and Gael Monfils, the two best showmen on the ATP tour. After that, Monfils could face Ferrer, which would be a fascinating contrast of styles. It's going to be tough for either to beat Murray, though.
Finally, to the last section of the draw, we find the most exciting first-round match of the tournament in Nadal's eighth, but it isn't anywhere near him. No, the best first-round matchup is between Radek Stepanek and Ivo Karlovic. You may recall, last year Karlovic lost to Stepanek in a Davis Cup rubber 16-14 in the fifth after playing four tiebreak sets! There is absolutely no way this match can live up to that, but it has potential to be excellent, nonetheless. Nadal actually has a tough draw, himself. He opens against a 30-year old Australian playing the tennis of his life, Peter Luczak. His third round match could be against one of two tough opponents, Phillip Kohlschreiber (who ousted Roddick at that stage in 2008) or John Isner (who just reached his second career tour final). And even after that, he'll have to get through either Stepanek, Karlovic, Mardy Fish, or Ivan Ljubicic.
I'll have more analysis in the coming days, particularly once the qualifiers are placed. Along with my picks, of course!
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Finals Week 1 - Top Players Stumble!
As several of the first tournaments of the week have already been decided (two finals remain to be played), the most interesting thing about the outcomes is how two of the top players in the world seemed to have their victories firmly in-hand, only to let them slip away.
In the Hopman Cup, Andy Murray and Laura Robson were playing Spain for the championship. Before play started, it was easy to guess that Laura Robson would drop her singles match, but then Murray would win his and the pair would win their doubles point. That was how it had gone for most of the week. Laura Robson had lost all of her singles matches, while Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez had yet to drop a set. So when Robson came out on fire and beat Martinez Sanchez in straights, the victory for Great Britain was all but assured.
And then, Murray came out and took the first set from Tommy Robredo 6-1. Imagine the surprise and disappointment that Murray must have felt as he dropped the last two sets, and then proceeded to lose the mixed doubles in two as well. What seemed like a sure thing somehow managed to slip away, in a surprising loss for the Brit. Since this was his only warm-up to the Australian Open (I believe), it's unfortunate that he has to go in on that sort of a defeat.
Another player who isn't going to be thrilled with the result of his last match before the Australian Open was Rafael Nadal. He faced Nikolay Davydenko, who had beaten Federer in the semifinals, and took the first set from the Russian in imperious fashion, losing only one point on serve and breaking Davydenko there times. After that, the match started. The second set went to a tiebreak and Nadal had two match points, but Davydenko pulled it out 10-8. Nadal was then up a break in the decider, but Davydenko leveled and then took the match.
Davydenko becomes one of four people to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, and is riding the longest winning streak on tour. After years of leading the second tier of top players, he seems to have finally reached his proper place among the elite. After his win at the 2009 year end championships in London, and then this display in Doha, Nikolay has to be among the favorites in the Australian Open. There's no reason he can't win, if he can continue this run.
In Brisbane, there was another cracker of a match between Belgians Clijsters and Henin, which went to a third-set tiebreak. While Henin also had match points, Clijsters came out on top, just barely. Considering that this is her first match back after 20 months of retirement and Clijsters is the most recent slam winner on the WTA tour, this is an exciting omen for Henin's comeback. Unfortunately, she has withdrawn from next week's tournament in Sydney. Regardless, she's demonstrated that she's ready to make a run at the Aussie Open, and I'm no sure no one wants to see her in their section of the draw.
The other final in Brisbane will feature Radek Stepanek, who breezed passed a physically-uncomfortable Gael Monfils, and Andy Roddick, who had a much tougher time against Tomas Berdych. Despite having not dropped serve all week long, Roddick was broken in the first game of the match, and then again in the second. He lost the first set 6-1, while failing to convert on four break points.
In the second set, he tightened up his game, raising his first serve winning percentage from 50 to 76 and breaking one time in six tries. After evening the match, Roddick pulled himself together even further. In the final set, he won 82% of his first serve points and 86% on his second. He broke again, and managed to edge out a tough win in three.
In the final, we'll have to the battle of Radek versus Roddick, which is always exciting. They've played six times, with the American winning five, but Stepanek beat Roddick in a tough semifinal in San Jose last year. It should be an exciting match, and I know that Andy would like to get his first title in his first outing this season, but Stepanek is eager to complete his first successful title defense.
In Chennai, last year title-winner is also in the final again, facing Swiss number two Stanislas Wawrinka. Stan "the Man" is 4-0 against Cilic, but they haven't played since 2008, and he has matured a great deal in that time. It should be a fine match, as well.
One last note - Yanina Wickmayer has finished her successful rejoinder to her suspended suspension, by beating top seed Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. Also, that turns out to have been a fine use of a wildcard. The draws are out for next week's tournaments, and I hope to take a look at those tomorrow.
In the Hopman Cup, Andy Murray and Laura Robson were playing Spain for the championship. Before play started, it was easy to guess that Laura Robson would drop her singles match, but then Murray would win his and the pair would win their doubles point. That was how it had gone for most of the week. Laura Robson had lost all of her singles matches, while Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez had yet to drop a set. So when Robson came out on fire and beat Martinez Sanchez in straights, the victory for Great Britain was all but assured.
And then, Murray came out and took the first set from Tommy Robredo 6-1. Imagine the surprise and disappointment that Murray must have felt as he dropped the last two sets, and then proceeded to lose the mixed doubles in two as well. What seemed like a sure thing somehow managed to slip away, in a surprising loss for the Brit. Since this was his only warm-up to the Australian Open (I believe), it's unfortunate that he has to go in on that sort of a defeat.
Another player who isn't going to be thrilled with the result of his last match before the Australian Open was Rafael Nadal. He faced Nikolay Davydenko, who had beaten Federer in the semifinals, and took the first set from the Russian in imperious fashion, losing only one point on serve and breaking Davydenko there times. After that, the match started. The second set went to a tiebreak and Nadal had two match points, but Davydenko pulled it out 10-8. Nadal was then up a break in the decider, but Davydenko leveled and then took the match.
Davydenko becomes one of four people to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, and is riding the longest winning streak on tour. After years of leading the second tier of top players, he seems to have finally reached his proper place among the elite. After his win at the 2009 year end championships in London, and then this display in Doha, Nikolay has to be among the favorites in the Australian Open. There's no reason he can't win, if he can continue this run.
In Brisbane, there was another cracker of a match between Belgians Clijsters and Henin, which went to a third-set tiebreak. While Henin also had match points, Clijsters came out on top, just barely. Considering that this is her first match back after 20 months of retirement and Clijsters is the most recent slam winner on the WTA tour, this is an exciting omen for Henin's comeback. Unfortunately, she has withdrawn from next week's tournament in Sydney. Regardless, she's demonstrated that she's ready to make a run at the Aussie Open, and I'm no sure no one wants to see her in their section of the draw.
The other final in Brisbane will feature Radek Stepanek, who breezed passed a physically-uncomfortable Gael Monfils, and Andy Roddick, who had a much tougher time against Tomas Berdych. Despite having not dropped serve all week long, Roddick was broken in the first game of the match, and then again in the second. He lost the first set 6-1, while failing to convert on four break points.
In the second set, he tightened up his game, raising his first serve winning percentage from 50 to 76 and breaking one time in six tries. After evening the match, Roddick pulled himself together even further. In the final set, he won 82% of his first serve points and 86% on his second. He broke again, and managed to edge out a tough win in three.
In the final, we'll have to the battle of Radek versus Roddick, which is always exciting. They've played six times, with the American winning five, but Stepanek beat Roddick in a tough semifinal in San Jose last year. It should be an exciting match, and I know that Andy would like to get his first title in his first outing this season, but Stepanek is eager to complete his first successful title defense.
In Chennai, last year title-winner is also in the final again, facing Swiss number two Stanislas Wawrinka. Stan "the Man" is 4-0 against Cilic, but they haven't played since 2008, and he has matured a great deal in that time. It should be a fine match, as well.
One last note - Yanina Wickmayer has finished her successful rejoinder to her suspended suspension, by beating top seed Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. Also, that turns out to have been a fine use of a wildcard. The draws are out for next week's tournaments, and I hope to take a look at those tomorrow.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Davydenko on top - Semifinals Week 1
While Soderling's loss to Ginepri may have been the first big upset of the year, the first time the world number one loses is always an upset, just by definition. Federer's loss to Davydenko may have been less surprising, since the Russian just won their most recent meeting at the World Tour Finals at the end of last season, but it is a bit unexpected since Federer had a 12-0 record against him before that.
In the first set, Nikolay put 100% of his first serves into play. Twenty-seven out of twenty-seven, which is just an unbelievable statistic. Davydenko gets Nadal in the final, who breezed past Serbian Viktor Troicki. They also played at the last event in 2009, and Davydenko came out on top. Although I've been a doubter in the past, the Russian may finally be developing the confidence to really make a run to a grand slam title. If he handles Nadal as well as he took care of Federer, it'll definitely put him in contention at the Aussie Open.
The semifinals at all four events this week were all populated by top 5 seeds. In Doha, 4th seed Youzhny was missing. In Chennai, it was top seed Soderling. But in Brisbane, all four top seeds have made it this far. Berdych had his hands full with Tomaz Bellucci, but his experience got him through in three. That said, this was one of the best matches I've seen Bellucci play, and he was just points from victory. I think he has the potential to be a top-ten player.
The other quarter in Brisbane was billed as a tougher contest, but was actually less competitive. Roddick and Gasquet both played well in a match that featured tremendous serving, clutch volleying, and and superb shot-making from the back of the court, as well. But Roddick managed a break in the first set (needing eight chances to do so) and then secured the match in the second-set tiebreak. The Frenchman is playing well, but he has yet to return to his top form. Roddick will play Berdych in the semis, and the pair has a close head-to-head record. It should be a good match.
Also in Brisbane, the women's final has been decided, and it was the match-up that everyone was hoping for. Kim Clijsters will take on her compatriot Justine Henin, back to a final in her first tournament in nearly two years. They've played a great deal in the past, with Henin coming out on top more often than not, but you have to give the edge to Clijsters based solely on recent form.
There's a third Belgian woman in a final this week, amazingly. Yanina Wickmayer will face top-seeded Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. It's good to see her shaking off the minor drug scandal that could have proved to be quite a distraction at the end of last season.
In Chennai, Janko Tipsarevic, who has been frustrated by the success of his compatriot Djokovic (or at least his own relative lack of it) beat young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker, who has had an amazing run in his first tournament of the year. He'll playing defending champ Marin Cilic in the semis, for the privilege of playing the winner of Dudi Sela and Stan Wawrinka. It's tough to bet against a Wawrinka-Cilic final at this point, but as we've seen, upsets do happen.
In the first set, Nikolay put 100% of his first serves into play. Twenty-seven out of twenty-seven, which is just an unbelievable statistic. Davydenko gets Nadal in the final, who breezed past Serbian Viktor Troicki. They also played at the last event in 2009, and Davydenko came out on top. Although I've been a doubter in the past, the Russian may finally be developing the confidence to really make a run to a grand slam title. If he handles Nadal as well as he took care of Federer, it'll definitely put him in contention at the Aussie Open.
The semifinals at all four events this week were all populated by top 5 seeds. In Doha, 4th seed Youzhny was missing. In Chennai, it was top seed Soderling. But in Brisbane, all four top seeds have made it this far. Berdych had his hands full with Tomaz Bellucci, but his experience got him through in three. That said, this was one of the best matches I've seen Bellucci play, and he was just points from victory. I think he has the potential to be a top-ten player.
The other quarter in Brisbane was billed as a tougher contest, but was actually less competitive. Roddick and Gasquet both played well in a match that featured tremendous serving, clutch volleying, and and superb shot-making from the back of the court, as well. But Roddick managed a break in the first set (needing eight chances to do so) and then secured the match in the second-set tiebreak. The Frenchman is playing well, but he has yet to return to his top form. Roddick will play Berdych in the semis, and the pair has a close head-to-head record. It should be a good match.
Also in Brisbane, the women's final has been decided, and it was the match-up that everyone was hoping for. Kim Clijsters will take on her compatriot Justine Henin, back to a final in her first tournament in nearly two years. They've played a great deal in the past, with Henin coming out on top more often than not, but you have to give the edge to Clijsters based solely on recent form.
There's a third Belgian woman in a final this week, amazingly. Yanina Wickmayer will face top-seeded Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. It's good to see her shaking off the minor drug scandal that could have proved to be quite a distraction at the end of last season.
In Chennai, Janko Tipsarevic, who has been frustrated by the success of his compatriot Djokovic (or at least his own relative lack of it) beat young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker, who has had an amazing run in his first tournament of the year. He'll playing defending champ Marin Cilic in the semis, for the privilege of playing the winner of Dudi Sela and Stan Wawrinka. It's tough to bet against a Wawrinka-Cilic final at this point, but as we've seen, upsets do happen.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Scheduling is a mess...
... when you've got tennis taking place in places that are ten hours apart. In my current time zone, the tennis in Auckland starts at around 6 PM, Brisbane starts at 6:30, Chennai starts at 6 AM, and Doha starts at 7. It's tough to figure out how to watch all of that and still find time to sleep! I'm glad I caught as much as I did yesterday, though.
Brisbane is where all the action is. Justine Henin's comeback continues, and she's into the semifinals, where she'll play Ana Ivanovic, which is definitely the dream match-up for the bottom half of the draw. Both players have been doing well, and even though she may be rusty, I'm inclined to give this one to Justine based on experience. She managed to pull out a tight one against Melinda Czink, squandering five (possible six) match points before winning in a third-set tiebreaker.
Another player who squeaked through in a third-set breaker was James Blake, who saved three match points against Marc Gicquel before winning 10-8. Blake played very well, and was a bit more patient than I'd seen him be in these types of tight matches. He was still blowing winners by Gicquel whenever he gets the chance, but he took the time to set up more points than I'm used to seeing. That's a positive for Blake. His first real test comes tonight, though, when he plays Frenchman Gael Monfils. I don't care how late it is, I'm staying up to watch it, since it's a match between two of the best shotmakers in the game. And Monfils has been struggling in his first two rounds, playing six sets and four tiebreaks.
Another high-quality match in Brisbane was Andy Roddick against Carsten Ball. Ball did not play like a challenger-regular whose ranking has never dipped inside the top hundred. For twelve games in the first set and then seven games in the second, there was very little to choose between these two players. However, Roddick showed his variety and his experience in the tiebreak, winning all seven points, and then breaking Ball in the second set before serving out the match. Despite the loss, it should be an encouraging performance for Carsten. No doubt we'll see the big-serving lefty again.
I have to say that the matches in the other three tournaments taking place this week haven't really been at the same level. Most of the players in Chennai and Doha cruised over the past few days, particularly the big three in Doha. However, two of them face their first challenge in the next round, potentially. Federer goes up against Ernests Gulbis, and Davydenko takes on Ivo Karlovic. I expect that both of them will come through those matches, but there's an outside chance of an upset in each.
There were a few matches that had the potential to be exciting, but then didn't deliver. After beating DeHeart in the first round, Younes El Aynaoui excited everyone about his potential to play Nadal, but his body just didn't hold up, and he was vanquished easily by Belgian qualifier Steve Darcis. In Chennai, local hopeful beat former top-ten player Rainer Schuettler in the first round, only to be shut down by Janko Tipsarevic 2 and 1.
American Wayne Odesnik looked to be challenging defending champ Radek Stepanek in Brisbane as well, breaking the wily Czech and serving for the first set. But Odesnik seemed to tweak something in his back, and from that point on, he was never in the match. Additionally, he seemed to repeatedly forget that Brisbane didn't have the hawkeye challenge system in play, and had to be reminded by the umpire twice.
As we move into the final rounds of this first week of the season, I have to wonder how I got by without tennis for two months.
Brisbane is where all the action is. Justine Henin's comeback continues, and she's into the semifinals, where she'll play Ana Ivanovic, which is definitely the dream match-up for the bottom half of the draw. Both players have been doing well, and even though she may be rusty, I'm inclined to give this one to Justine based on experience. She managed to pull out a tight one against Melinda Czink, squandering five (possible six) match points before winning in a third-set tiebreaker.
Another player who squeaked through in a third-set breaker was James Blake, who saved three match points against Marc Gicquel before winning 10-8. Blake played very well, and was a bit more patient than I'd seen him be in these types of tight matches. He was still blowing winners by Gicquel whenever he gets the chance, but he took the time to set up more points than I'm used to seeing. That's a positive for Blake. His first real test comes tonight, though, when he plays Frenchman Gael Monfils. I don't care how late it is, I'm staying up to watch it, since it's a match between two of the best shotmakers in the game. And Monfils has been struggling in his first two rounds, playing six sets and four tiebreaks.
Another high-quality match in Brisbane was Andy Roddick against Carsten Ball. Ball did not play like a challenger-regular whose ranking has never dipped inside the top hundred. For twelve games in the first set and then seven games in the second, there was very little to choose between these two players. However, Roddick showed his variety and his experience in the tiebreak, winning all seven points, and then breaking Ball in the second set before serving out the match. Despite the loss, it should be an encouraging performance for Carsten. No doubt we'll see the big-serving lefty again.
I have to say that the matches in the other three tournaments taking place this week haven't really been at the same level. Most of the players in Chennai and Doha cruised over the past few days, particularly the big three in Doha. However, two of them face their first challenge in the next round, potentially. Federer goes up against Ernests Gulbis, and Davydenko takes on Ivo Karlovic. I expect that both of them will come through those matches, but there's an outside chance of an upset in each.
There were a few matches that had the potential to be exciting, but then didn't deliver. After beating DeHeart in the first round, Younes El Aynaoui excited everyone about his potential to play Nadal, but his body just didn't hold up, and he was vanquished easily by Belgian qualifier Steve Darcis. In Chennai, local hopeful beat former top-ten player Rainer Schuettler in the first round, only to be shut down by Janko Tipsarevic 2 and 1.
American Wayne Odesnik looked to be challenging defending champ Radek Stepanek in Brisbane as well, breaking the wily Czech and serving for the first set. But Odesnik seemed to tweak something in his back, and from that point on, he was never in the match. Additionally, he seemed to repeatedly forget that Brisbane didn't have the hawkeye challenge system in play, and had to be reminded by the umpire twice.
As we move into the final rounds of this first week of the season, I have to wonder how I got by without tennis for two months.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
2010 Tennis Season Underway!
After a long and lonely off-season, the 2010 tennis season officially begins this week. There are three official tournaments during week one: Brisbane, Chennai, and Doha. Meanwhile, there's the Hopman Cup mixed-doubles event in Perth as well. Not to mention last week, the Capitala World Tennis Championship exhibition took place in Abu Dhabi. The season really starts with a bang, doesn't it? Beginning next week, the entire tour becomes focused in Australia as things build up towards the first major of the year, but for one week, the players remain scattered across the globe.
First of all, looking back at last week's pre-season exhibition in Abu Dhabi, there is one very interesting result. Robin Soderling managed to find a way to beat Roger Federer in the semifinals, after losing twelve consecutive times to the Swiss maestro. While this is undoubtedly a thrilling result for Robin, Roger may have already pocketed his appearance fee and decided to head off to his next tourney. The sad truth is that these exhibition wins often don't make that much difference. Roddick beat Fed at Kooyong in 2007, but then won only six games when they played just a few weeks later at the Aussie Open.
Speaking of Roddick, he's the top seed at the tournament in Brisbane, which features the majority of the American and Australian players, save for Aussie number one Hewitt, who's at the Hopman Cup. The first week of the season is always fascinating, because you get to see how players who were injured at the end of last season have recovered, or whether those who finished the year on a tear can maintain their momentum. Roddick is hoping to have fully recovered from the knee injury which cut his season short. Brisbane also features Mardy Fish, Sam Querrey, and Taylor Dent, all recently injured Americans who hope to start 2009 off well. There are quite a few dangerous floaters in the draw, as well. Look for a more in-depth draw analysis tomorrow.
Moving westward to India, the Chennai tournament will struggle to be as exciting this year as it was in 2009. That was the year that local wildcard Somdev Devvarman made it through the first three rounds, beating Carlos Moya and Ivo Karlovic in the process, only to get a walkover from Rainer Schuettler in the semis. He lost to Marin Cilic in the final, but what a dream run. Devvarman will be hoping to defend as many points as he can, and Cilic will be hoping to have his first successful title defense of his career.
Further west, in the Middle East, where the money still seems to be flowing despite the world's economic downturn, you will find most of the big dogs. Only three of the world's top six players will be in official action this week, but they will all be in Doha. Federer, Nadal, and Davydenko will all be there, and only Davydenko enters with a winning streak. Can the Russian continue his stupendous form from the end of last year? He was injured early last year, so he has no points to defend. If he plays like he did in the closing months of 2009, he could jump up to the top 3 or 4 in the world. Two of the other most interesting storylines of 2010 will get started here, too: will Nadal's body be able to hold up, what with all of his injuries, and will Federer be able to stay as motivated as he has been in the past, considering how he has accomplished everything he could have set out to do?
The other member of the top six who is playing this week is Britain's Andy Murray, who is playing the Hopman Cup with British teenage phenom Laura Robson. She could meet American sensation Melanie Oudin, if the U.S. And Britain make it to the final. Of course, to do that, they'll each have to win their groups. Or maybe they could meet in the semis. I'm the first to admit that I'm not 100% clear on the way that Hopman Cup works. Regardless, there should be some firecracker matches. Watch for Dementieva to start her season in style.
First of all, looking back at last week's pre-season exhibition in Abu Dhabi, there is one very interesting result. Robin Soderling managed to find a way to beat Roger Federer in the semifinals, after losing twelve consecutive times to the Swiss maestro. While this is undoubtedly a thrilling result for Robin, Roger may have already pocketed his appearance fee and decided to head off to his next tourney. The sad truth is that these exhibition wins often don't make that much difference. Roddick beat Fed at Kooyong in 2007, but then won only six games when they played just a few weeks later at the Aussie Open.
Speaking of Roddick, he's the top seed at the tournament in Brisbane, which features the majority of the American and Australian players, save for Aussie number one Hewitt, who's at the Hopman Cup. The first week of the season is always fascinating, because you get to see how players who were injured at the end of last season have recovered, or whether those who finished the year on a tear can maintain their momentum. Roddick is hoping to have fully recovered from the knee injury which cut his season short. Brisbane also features Mardy Fish, Sam Querrey, and Taylor Dent, all recently injured Americans who hope to start 2009 off well. There are quite a few dangerous floaters in the draw, as well. Look for a more in-depth draw analysis tomorrow.
Moving westward to India, the Chennai tournament will struggle to be as exciting this year as it was in 2009. That was the year that local wildcard Somdev Devvarman made it through the first three rounds, beating Carlos Moya and Ivo Karlovic in the process, only to get a walkover from Rainer Schuettler in the semis. He lost to Marin Cilic in the final, but what a dream run. Devvarman will be hoping to defend as many points as he can, and Cilic will be hoping to have his first successful title defense of his career.
Further west, in the Middle East, where the money still seems to be flowing despite the world's economic downturn, you will find most of the big dogs. Only three of the world's top six players will be in official action this week, but they will all be in Doha. Federer, Nadal, and Davydenko will all be there, and only Davydenko enters with a winning streak. Can the Russian continue his stupendous form from the end of last year? He was injured early last year, so he has no points to defend. If he plays like he did in the closing months of 2009, he could jump up to the top 3 or 4 in the world. Two of the other most interesting storylines of 2010 will get started here, too: will Nadal's body be able to hold up, what with all of his injuries, and will Federer be able to stay as motivated as he has been in the past, considering how he has accomplished everything he could have set out to do?
The other member of the top six who is playing this week is Britain's Andy Murray, who is playing the Hopman Cup with British teenage phenom Laura Robson. She could meet American sensation Melanie Oudin, if the U.S. And Britain make it to the final. Of course, to do that, they'll each have to win their groups. Or maybe they could meet in the semis. I'm the first to admit that I'm not 100% clear on the way that Hopman Cup works. Regardless, there should be some firecracker matches. Watch for Dementieva to start her season in style.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Rogers Cup Montreal - Historic QF Lineup
For the first time in ATP history, the top eight players in the world rankings are the eight players left in the quarterfinals of a tournament. This is exciting, by itself, because it has never happened before on the tour, but it is much more exciting because it guarantees that the remaining seven matches are going to be marquee caliber.
To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.
The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.
The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.
Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.
Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.
To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.
The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.
The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.
Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.
Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
The AO's first casualty
Even though rain in Chennai prevented any matches from being played to completion, the top seed still managed to find his way out of the tournament: Davydenko pulled out with an injury to his heel, which also takes him out of the Australian Open. It's inevitable that somebody is going to be unable to play at each of these big tournaments, but Davydenko is such a decent, steady, fit guy that I'm surprised it's him. Here's hoping for a swift recovery.
While it rained in India, there was some very interesting play in Australia and Qatar. In Brisbane, Gulbis couldn't follow up on his victory over Djokovic, and lost to Paul-Henri Mathieu. Does that mean that Djoko's loss had more to do with Novak being rusty or with Gulbis not being mature enough to perform up to the same level after securing the biggest win of his career? Probably a bit of both.
Kei Nishikori continues to impress, beating fifth seed Tomas Berdych. Ancic fell to Verdasco, who was always the favorite, but I bet Ancic's marathon of a match yesterday didn't help his chances. Speaking of marathons, Tsonga had to win the second and third sets in tiebreaks after getting bageled in the first by Nieminen to avenge a loss that the Finn dealt the Frenchman almost exactly a year ago.
Tsonga will be rewarded with a day's rest and then a match against his countryman Richard Gasquet, who will have had two days off after a much-easier match against Taylor Dent. The pair are 2-2, and while Tsonga has been playing better tennis of late, I bet that Gasquet would like to remind French fans that he's still around. That one could be good.
But as for tomorrow in Brisbane, the headline match has to be Ana Ivanovic against Amelie Mauresmo, who both had tough three-set victories today. Mauresmo will have to return to her 2006 form to win this one. The Frenchwoman has been on the verge of retiring for quite a while, but it would be great to see her have a late-career resurgence.
The other highlight is to see if Kei Nishikori can continue to roll, as he comes up against the guy who beat the guy who beat Djokovic, P.H. Mathieu. I'd love to see the Japanese teen continue to win, but I figure that at some point, he's going to run into somebody with enough experience to stop him, and Mathieu may be just the veteran to do that. Also, keep an eye on doubles team Chris Guccione and Carsten Ball, who are (I believe) the only local players left in this Aussie tournament. Don't expect them to last long against top-seeded Mirnyi and Ram.
In Doha, things continue much as one might expect, but interesting clashes are coming up fast. Today, all the seeds won and Youzhny had his expected slump after beating Andreev yesterday, falling to Victor Hanescu. None of the matches in Qatar were terribly thrilling, although Kohlschreiber had to lose a second set tie-break before beating Kristof Vliegen in three. Here's hoping he keeps it close enough with Roger Federer to lose a tie-break.
Tomorrow, Roddick and Murray should both come through easily against Hanescu and Stakhovsky, respectively. Roddick in particular needs to get as much momentum as he can before the season's first major in two weeks. The real exciting match tomorrow is Nadal against Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has never beat the Spaniard, but Monfils is getting better and better, so this is probably the best shot he's had yet. Really, that ought to be headlining match tomorrow, but they had to put it at mid-day, so Rafa could have a little time to recover before he went back to play doubles against Santoro (who he's already beaten once) and Youzhny. Unless Monfils really tires him out, he should win that one, too.
In addition to Nadal, Tsonga is also still in both the singles and doubles draws, as are Verdasco, Tipsarevic, and Schuettler, thought some of them haven't even played a doubles match, yet. I'm pressed with these guys that can play singles and doubles and do well at both. The game is much more physical than it was in the 80's, when guys like McEnroe would win both the singles and doubles grand slam titles at the same tournament, multiple times.
We also have Ivo against Ivo to look forward to, but unfortunately, Aleksandra Wozniack lost before she could play Caroline Wozniacki. To have Ivo-Ivo and Wozniack-Wozniacki on the same day would have been just too good.
While it rained in India, there was some very interesting play in Australia and Qatar. In Brisbane, Gulbis couldn't follow up on his victory over Djokovic, and lost to Paul-Henri Mathieu. Does that mean that Djoko's loss had more to do with Novak being rusty or with Gulbis not being mature enough to perform up to the same level after securing the biggest win of his career? Probably a bit of both.
Kei Nishikori continues to impress, beating fifth seed Tomas Berdych. Ancic fell to Verdasco, who was always the favorite, but I bet Ancic's marathon of a match yesterday didn't help his chances. Speaking of marathons, Tsonga had to win the second and third sets in tiebreaks after getting bageled in the first by Nieminen to avenge a loss that the Finn dealt the Frenchman almost exactly a year ago.
Tsonga will be rewarded with a day's rest and then a match against his countryman Richard Gasquet, who will have had two days off after a much-easier match against Taylor Dent. The pair are 2-2, and while Tsonga has been playing better tennis of late, I bet that Gasquet would like to remind French fans that he's still around. That one could be good.
But as for tomorrow in Brisbane, the headline match has to be Ana Ivanovic against Amelie Mauresmo, who both had tough three-set victories today. Mauresmo will have to return to her 2006 form to win this one. The Frenchwoman has been on the verge of retiring for quite a while, but it would be great to see her have a late-career resurgence.
The other highlight is to see if Kei Nishikori can continue to roll, as he comes up against the guy who beat the guy who beat Djokovic, P.H. Mathieu. I'd love to see the Japanese teen continue to win, but I figure that at some point, he's going to run into somebody with enough experience to stop him, and Mathieu may be just the veteran to do that. Also, keep an eye on doubles team Chris Guccione and Carsten Ball, who are (I believe) the only local players left in this Aussie tournament. Don't expect them to last long against top-seeded Mirnyi and Ram.
In Doha, things continue much as one might expect, but interesting clashes are coming up fast. Today, all the seeds won and Youzhny had his expected slump after beating Andreev yesterday, falling to Victor Hanescu. None of the matches in Qatar were terribly thrilling, although Kohlschreiber had to lose a second set tie-break before beating Kristof Vliegen in three. Here's hoping he keeps it close enough with Roger Federer to lose a tie-break.
Tomorrow, Roddick and Murray should both come through easily against Hanescu and Stakhovsky, respectively. Roddick in particular needs to get as much momentum as he can before the season's first major in two weeks. The real exciting match tomorrow is Nadal against Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has never beat the Spaniard, but Monfils is getting better and better, so this is probably the best shot he's had yet. Really, that ought to be headlining match tomorrow, but they had to put it at mid-day, so Rafa could have a little time to recover before he went back to play doubles against Santoro (who he's already beaten once) and Youzhny. Unless Monfils really tires him out, he should win that one, too.
In addition to Nadal, Tsonga is also still in both the singles and doubles draws, as are Verdasco, Tipsarevic, and Schuettler, thought some of them haven't even played a doubles match, yet. I'm pressed with these guys that can play singles and doubles and do well at both. The game is much more physical than it was in the 80's, when guys like McEnroe would win both the singles and doubles grand slam titles at the same tournament, multiple times.
We also have Ivo against Ivo to look forward to, but unfortunately, Aleksandra Wozniack lost before she could play Caroline Wozniacki. To have Ivo-Ivo and Wozniack-Wozniacki on the same day would have been just too good.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
First week of 2009 preview
Looking ahead to the first week of the tennis season proper, there are some very intriguing matches. It's time for some players to make a statement that they're here to stay or that they're still around. There isn't much time to build some momentum going into the first grand slam of the season, so players have to take every opportunity that they can.
The most interesting path that any particular player has in front of him is Novak Djokovic, the top seed in Brisbane. His first three matches could be against Ernests Gulbis, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and then Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. If he gets through that unscathed, he could face Verdasco, Ancic, Ferrero, or Mardy Fish in the semifinals. Since his season went longer than anyone else's, we'll see how he recovered in the short off-season.
The bottom half of the Brisbane draw isn't quite as stacked, but it's still very exciting. The best first-round match, I think, is Marcos Baghdatis versus the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen. Baggy did not live up to his talent last year, so maybe he can turn things around in 2009. A solid start against a solid player like Jarkko is one way to get that off on the right foot. You've also got Stepanek, Soderling, and Gasquet, who are all contenders. But the real force in this half is JW Tsonga, the number two seed. I'm sure everyone would love to see another Tsonga-Djokovic match-up in the final. After Djoko won their first meeting in the AO final last year, Tsonga has won their next three meetings. There may be a rivalry developing here.
The Chennai event might seem less exciting, as it has a higher proportion of rising stars who haven't made their mark yet or tour veterans whose best days may be behind them. Top seed Davydenko really should come through this with no trouble, but there are some players who might upset Kolya. He should at least get to the quarters (H.T. Lee can come up with some good matches, but the Korean just turned 33) but at that point, he may find Marin Cilic, Dudi Sela, or Janko Tipsarevic waiting for him.
I like Ivo Karlovic in the bottom half, (there could be a second round Ivo v. Ivo match between Karlovic and Minar) but Carlos Moya is 4-0 against the ace machine. It will also be interesting to see if Stanislas Wawrinka and Rainier Schuettler can get their games back. Both had spectacular runs in the middle of 2008 (Schuettler's took him to the semifinals at Wimbledon) but had trouble the rest of the year. The Swiss #2 ended the year by losing his last four matches, and Schuettler went on an eight match losing streak between January and May. Any of those seeds could come out of the bottom half.
The real drama should take place in Doha this week. There aren't that many intriguing first round matches, but Nadal-Santoro should be fun. I'm glad to see the magician has decided not to retire, yet. Youzhny-Andreev could also be a close one. I'd like to see Youzhny have a more solid 2009 than he did in 2008, even though he was an infamous YouTube star.
If everything goes with the seeds, and it probably should - the only other possible spoiler I see is young Viktor Troicki - then we'll have a Nadal-Monfils, Roddick-Andreev, Tursunov-Murray, and Kohlschreiber-Federer quarterfinal round. Then, potentially, a Roddick-Nadal and Murray-Federer (Round 7!) semis. Whoever can make it through this field is going to have the biggest boost to start their season. I like Murray, honestly, since he beat the the top two players in the world last week at Abu Dhabi. Could this be the Scot's year?
The most interesting path that any particular player has in front of him is Novak Djokovic, the top seed in Brisbane. His first three matches could be against Ernests Gulbis, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and then Kei Nishikori or Tomas Berdych. If he gets through that unscathed, he could face Verdasco, Ancic, Ferrero, or Mardy Fish in the semifinals. Since his season went longer than anyone else's, we'll see how he recovered in the short off-season.
The bottom half of the Brisbane draw isn't quite as stacked, but it's still very exciting. The best first-round match, I think, is Marcos Baghdatis versus the flying Finn Jarkko Nieminen. Baggy did not live up to his talent last year, so maybe he can turn things around in 2009. A solid start against a solid player like Jarkko is one way to get that off on the right foot. You've also got Stepanek, Soderling, and Gasquet, who are all contenders. But the real force in this half is JW Tsonga, the number two seed. I'm sure everyone would love to see another Tsonga-Djokovic match-up in the final. After Djoko won their first meeting in the AO final last year, Tsonga has won their next three meetings. There may be a rivalry developing here.
The Chennai event might seem less exciting, as it has a higher proportion of rising stars who haven't made their mark yet or tour veterans whose best days may be behind them. Top seed Davydenko really should come through this with no trouble, but there are some players who might upset Kolya. He should at least get to the quarters (H.T. Lee can come up with some good matches, but the Korean just turned 33) but at that point, he may find Marin Cilic, Dudi Sela, or Janko Tipsarevic waiting for him.
I like Ivo Karlovic in the bottom half, (there could be a second round Ivo v. Ivo match between Karlovic and Minar) but Carlos Moya is 4-0 against the ace machine. It will also be interesting to see if Stanislas Wawrinka and Rainier Schuettler can get their games back. Both had spectacular runs in the middle of 2008 (Schuettler's took him to the semifinals at Wimbledon) but had trouble the rest of the year. The Swiss #2 ended the year by losing his last four matches, and Schuettler went on an eight match losing streak between January and May. Any of those seeds could come out of the bottom half.
The real drama should take place in Doha this week. There aren't that many intriguing first round matches, but Nadal-Santoro should be fun. I'm glad to see the magician has decided not to retire, yet. Youzhny-Andreev could also be a close one. I'd like to see Youzhny have a more solid 2009 than he did in 2008, even though he was an infamous YouTube star.
If everything goes with the seeds, and it probably should - the only other possible spoiler I see is young Viktor Troicki - then we'll have a Nadal-Monfils, Roddick-Andreev, Tursunov-Murray, and Kohlschreiber-Federer quarterfinal round. Then, potentially, a Roddick-Nadal and Murray-Federer (Round 7!) semis. Whoever can make it through this field is going to have the biggest boost to start their season. I like Murray, honestly, since he beat the the top two players in the world last week at Abu Dhabi. Could this be the Scot's year?
Friday, January 2, 2009
2009 starts early!
Well, when I saw that the ATP season started next weekend, I failed to notice an exhibition tournament going on this week in Abu Dhabi. It started off pretty tame, with Andy Murray and Nikolay Davydenko beating James Blake and Andy Roddick, both in straight sets. I didn't see any of either match, but I would give it to Murray over Blake any day, and both of the Americans have the sort of games that would probably be rather shaky after however many weeks off. I'm sure they enjoyed getting their appearence fees, though.
Here's hoping that Roddick is fully recovered from his injury and that he finds his form in 2009. 2008 wasn't a terrible year for him (three titles) but it was his worst since he won the U.S. Open. If he wants to remain a contender into his late 20's and early 30's, he needs to show that he can keep up with the younger generation. That sentiment is even truer for James Blake, who also had a lackluster year and is getting up there in age for a tennis pro. He'll need to make a statement this year.
However, that first round gave way to another Murray-Federer matchup, which you can read about here, and which looks like it was a real stunner. Murray won, 4-6 6-2 7-6 (8-6). It looks like whenever these two get together, there are fireworks. This bodes well for the coming year.
Nadal also toppled Davydenko with little difficulty. It's encouraging to see that he's probably recovered from the injuries that kept him out of the end of the season in 2008. Nadal v. Murray is taking place tomorrow. That will be a very interesting match-up, and even though there are no ranking points on the line, you can bet there's a lot of pride and confidence going in to the big tournaments this season. Also, $250K. So that's not bad, either.
Here's hoping that Roddick is fully recovered from his injury and that he finds his form in 2009. 2008 wasn't a terrible year for him (three titles) but it was his worst since he won the U.S. Open. If he wants to remain a contender into his late 20's and early 30's, he needs to show that he can keep up with the younger generation. That sentiment is even truer for James Blake, who also had a lackluster year and is getting up there in age for a tennis pro. He'll need to make a statement this year.
However, that first round gave way to another Murray-Federer matchup, which you can read about here, and which looks like it was a real stunner. Murray won, 4-6 6-2 7-6 (8-6). It looks like whenever these two get together, there are fireworks. This bodes well for the coming year.
Nadal also toppled Davydenko with little difficulty. It's encouraging to see that he's probably recovered from the injuries that kept him out of the end of the season in 2008. Nadal v. Murray is taking place tomorrow. That will be a very interesting match-up, and even though there are no ranking points on the line, you can bet there's a lot of pride and confidence going in to the big tournaments this season. Also, $250K. So that's not bad, either.
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