Wimbledon Preview

I'll be quick to dispatch the finals from this week - I was right on two of them. Justine Henin and Michael Llodra each won, while Tipsarevic and Azarenka weren't so lucky. Still, props to every player who made the finals this week, which will hopefully help them build momentum on the way into the biggest tournament of the year.

Looking at the Wimbledon draw, I have to say - even though the players are mostly the same as were present at the French Open, this field seems to be packed with a lot more exciting match-ups. It could be because fewer players have as much trouble on grass as they do on clay, but it could just be that this is a more appetizing draw. I'll look at the draw in eight sections, rather than by quarter, because otherwise I'd be doing too much analysis in each batch.

Federer's section of the draw doesn't appear to be too problematic. He opens against Alejandro Falla, who is 0-4 against Federer, including two losses already this year and another loss at Wimbledon way back in 2004. That's a pretty safe first round. He'll probably get Nicolas Massu in the second, who has only beaten Federer once, and it was eight years ago. Things may get a bit more interesting in the third round, however. I expect that Tommy Robredo - the player that Federer is seeded to meet at that point - won't make it that far, because he has some tough opposition and has been struggling recently. In his place, Fed might find either Janko Tipsarevic or Arnaud Clement, two players who have played Federer tough in the past and who both love Wimbledon. I'd love to see a rematch of the Fed-Tipsy epic from the Australian Open in 2008, personally. In the round of 16, Federer's opponent will probably be either the grass-court-loving Spaniard Feliciano Lopez or French Open semifinalist Jurgen Melzer, but there's an outside chance that Carsten Ball could make a run. Also in this section, watch for Lithuanian teen Ricardas Bernankis, who won't make it far but should be fun to look for in the future. In the end, there's not a lot of people who could trouble Federer on his way to the quarters, and I see him getting through.

Luckily for Federer, the other top 8 seed in his quarter is Nikolay Davydenko, who both hates playing on grass at Wimbledon and has just come off an injury. It will be quite a feat for him to make it deep in this tournament. He opens against the big, 6'8" South African Kevin Anderson, and that may be all she wrote for Davydenko. Even if he gets past Anderson, he'll face big-hitting countryman Igor Andreev. The other seed that Davydenko would run into first is another player who doesn't love grass courts, Victor Hanescu. While neither of them may make it to the quarters or even the round of 16, the opponent they would find there will be a tough one. That section of the draw has Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka as the top seeds, which is a tough pairing. Their section also has Rainer Schuettler and Benjamin Becker, so whoever comes through there will probably find themselves facing Federer in the quarters. I give Berdych a chance at beating Fed there, but he's the only guy with a real shot.

Novak Djokovic, the third seed, doesn't really have his own quarter. He's found himself in Andy Roddick's quarter. But he still has his own section, and it's a brutal one. He opens against Olivier Rochus, who beat him earlier in the year, and then will probably get Taylor Dent in the second round. Dent loves the grass court season, and he'll be a tough opponent for Novak. Djokovic could get a break in the third round, because Albert Montanes does not love the grass courts at Wimbledon, but in the fourth round, he'll probably get either Lleyton Hewitt or Gael Monfils, and that's just brutal. It's tough to see Djokovic making it out of that section of the draw - in fact, I'd put Hewitt as the favorite to reach the quarterfinals, especially considering his recent win over Federer.

And they're all playing for the chance to - in all likelihood - face last year's finalist Andy Roddick. Roddick could face some stern opposition, but this is - after the U.S. Open - the American's backyard, and grass is - as coach Stefanki said - his "bread and butter." After an essentially inconsequential opening round against Rajeev Ram, Roddick could get recent Eastbourne titlist Michael Llodra in the second round. I think the fact that Llodra is thirty and just won a title a few days ago will make it tough for him to bounce back and face the big-serving American. After that, Roddick will probably get either Kohlschreiber, who beat him at the Australian Open in 2007, or Gabashvili, who just beat him at the French. But I think Roddick is the better player on this surface, and should actually be motivated because he knows these are dangerous guys. He's much more in danger of falling to somebody coming out of nowhere, in my opinion. In the round of sixteen, there are a couple people he could face - Marin Cilic is the seeded player, and Cilic beat an injured Roddick at the Aussie Open this year. But he has to get past Mardy Fish, who has been playing good tennis in recent weeks. The other player to watch here is Ljubicic, who beat Roddick earlier in the year as well, but has been struggling with injury. As a final note, Fish opens against Bernard Tomic, who has a great future ahead of him, but this isn't his tournament.

With all that said, I see Roddick making it through to a rematch with Federer in the semis. Which is what everyone wants anyway.

Moving along to the bottom half of the draw, Fernando Verdasco has his own section as the eighth seed, and while he has a good draw through to the round of sixteen, it does get a lot tougher. He opens against Italian Fabio Fognini and then might get American Michael Russel. His third round opponent could be 32nd seed Julien Benneteau, or one of three other not terribly dangerous opponents. But in the fourth round, he's likely to meet either tenth seed JW Tsonga or big-hitting Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, both of whom represent a dramatic rise in the quality of opponent he would be facing. There's also an outside chance he could meet slumping Swiss #3 Marco Chiudinelli, if he goes on a tear. I think that Verdasco, Tsonga, and Almagro are just about all equally likely to make it out of this section of the draw and into the quarters.

Once they get there, they're almost certain to face Andy Murray. While Roddick may have treated Wimbledon as his own backyard, it really and truly is for Murray. He'll need the support of his countrymen to turn his year around, as he's entering the tournament this year with a significantly worse record than he was last year at this point. While his draw is by no means easy, it could have been a lot worse. He'll probably get Finnish player Jarkko Nieminen in the second round, followed by Frenchman Gilles Simon. Both players are runners and returners, so they play the same style as Murray, just not as well. In his round of 16 match, on the other hand, he might find himself facing Sam Querrey, which is a very different sort of game. If Querrey can get through his first round against Unicef Open titlist Stakhovsky, then I expect that he'll get through his second round opponent and Juan Carlos Ferrero for a meeting with Andy Murray. That should be fun to watch - Querrey just won at Queen's and is desperate for a deep run at a major. This is a good chance for him, but he'll need Murray to be troubled by the pressure.

Even if Murray makes it by Querrey and finds Tsonga, Verdasco, or Almagro in the quarters, they're exactly the sort of player that gives Murray trouble. It would be a tough one for him to get through. It's by no means a guarantee that he'll equal his run to the semifinals from last year.

The final quarter of the draw is pretty much mouth-watering, I have to say. It's a brutal, brutal section. First, Robin Soderling is the sixth seed. He opens against resurgent Robbie Ginepri, and could get Tomaz Bellucci in the third round, after Portuguese Frederico Gil. In the fourth round, he could get Marcos Baghdatis, Jeremy Chardy, David Ferrer, or wildcard Nicolas Kiefer, all tough opponents on this surface. But I think that Soderling should make it through - it does work to his disadvantage that he made the final at the French Open, because he withdrew from any of the grass court warm-up events in the intervening weeks, and he'll need to adjust quickly to the change in the surface.

The bottom part of this quarter belongs to Rafael Nadal, and even though he's considering one of the top two favorites to win the tournament, he'll have to get through an absolutely devastating field to do it. I don't know the last time I saw a player with this cruel a draw. He opens against Kei Nishikori, who hasn't done much this year but is a player with a ton of potential. After that, he could get recently-recovered James Blake, a big-hitting player who's beaten Nadal in a Grand Slam match before. And then maybe Ernests Gulbis, who nearly beat him on clay earlier in the year. And then maybe Isner, who should love the way the grass responds to his serve or Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal at the U.S. Open in 2006. That is an unbelievably tough draw - if those are the players he has to face, followed by Soderling (who can forget their Wimbledon match from a few years ago?), Murray, and Federer/Roddick, then I think I can say that it would be the toughest road to a title that we've seen in a long time.

While there are some really thrilling matches promised down the road, there are also some really fascinating opening rounds, and quite a few feature relatively high seeds that I would say could be in danger. There's also quite a few young, unproven players who have a chance to make some noise. It's worth noting that only three players have made the Wimbledon final since 2004: Nadal, Federer, and Roddick. Also, the last three finals have all been five sets, which I believe is the first time that has happened since 1970-72. It would be great to be able to keep up that level of excitement, but it's still two weeks away. I can't wait!

I'll take a (briefer) look at women's draw tomorrow.

Australian Open Draw Analysis

The draw is out; let the predictions begin!

There are so many ways to look at a tennis tournament's drawsheet, but what I like to do first is see what the quarterfinals would look like if the top eight seeds hold up, which has never happened in a grand slam, but is still a good way to get a sense of the where the top players are in the tournament. In-depth analysis will follow.

Top quarter:

Federer (1) vs. Davydenko (6) - There was a time when this would have been a dream for Roger Federer, as the Swiss had owned the Russian in 12 meetings. However, Davydenko has beaten Federer twice in a row in the last few months, and while he's yet to do it at a grand slam, I don't think Fed wanted to see this man waiting for him.

Second quarter:

Djokovic (3) vs. Soderling (8) - A pretty good draw for the Djoker, particularly since Soderling just retired from his match at the Kooyong exhibition with an injury. This would be better if Soderling hadn't just notched his first win against Novak at the year-end championships in London, but with a 5-1 record, he has to be fairly happy with this opponent.

Third quarter:

Roddick (7) vs. Del Potro (4) - Not ideal for Andy, because he has lost to Del Potro on all three times that they've met. However, DelPo has also been struggling with injury and pulled out of a match at Kooyong, so that may work in Roddick's favor. They both fell to Roger Federer last year (Del Po in the quarters, Roddick in the semis) and I'm sure Roddick is particularly happy to be in the other half of the draw, this year.

Fourth quarter:

Murray (5) vs. Nadal (2) - The defending champion ends up with Murray as his quarterfinal opponent, since the Scot let his ranking slip out of the top four last week. Murray is 2-7 against Nadal, but both of those wins did come on hard courts, one at the U.S. Open in 2008. The Spaniard will have to work hard and reverse several months of less-than-stellar form to defend his title.

Of course, to get this point, the top eight have to get through 120 other players first. As I said, the top eight seeds have never all made it to the quarterfinal at a grand slam in the open era, so the odds of at least one of the aforementioned players losing before this stage is almost a hundred percent. But who's going to topple early?

Federer has a favorable draw, as is usually the case with the top-seeded player. His opening round match should actually be the toughest of his first three, no matter who he faces. Fed plays Igor Andreev, who took the Swiss to five sets at the US Open's round of 16 in 2008. Once Roger gets past him, his next two rounds will almost inevitably feature clay court specialists. The fourth round for Federer could be interesting, as he'll likely face either Lleyton Hewitt, Marcos Baghdatis, or Giles Simon. Two of them are former finalists here, and all three want to get back to the top ten.

Davydenko arguably has an even easier road than Federer, as the Russian opens against a qualifier, then players either another qualifier or Carlos Moya, who is also an Aussie Open runner-up, but that was 12 years ago. Davydenko's section has more qualifiers than other eighth of the drew (five) and two of the other three seeds are clay-corut specialists, Juan Monaco and Juan Carlos Ferrero, who isn't quite as far past his prime as Moya, but a deep run from him is not especially likely. Davydenko's likely fourth-round would be against last year's semifinalist Fernando Verdasco, and that could be a tough match. But Verdasco as only one once against Davydenko in seven tries. It's unlikely that Aussie wildcard Carsten Ball opens against Verdasco, because that's a tough ask, but he's got an outside chance of pulling the upset. The other potential spoiler in Davydenko's section is Ernests Gulbis, if he decides to play as well as he's capable.

Djokovic's eighth of the draw is quite favorable. The first seed he might meet is erratic young Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, who hasn't made it past the second round at any grand slam event not held on his home soil. He might meet Mikhail Youzhny or Tommy Robredo next, and while both are excellent players who have at least one win over Djoker, I think that Novak can handle both. The dangerous floaters in this section of the draw are unseeded former slam semifinalists Richard Gasquet and Robby Ginepri.

The last section in the top half of the draw has the least amount of distance between the top two seeds. Particularly if Soderling turns up injured, this may turn out to be Tsonga's section, instead. I know Djokovic would rather face the Swede than Tsonga, since JW has owned Novak in four out of five matches since they first met in the final here two years ago. In any case, Soderling would have to get by tough Spanish lefty Nicolas Almagro to face Tsonga, but Tsonga would have to beat either Taylor Dent, Taylor Haas, Janko Tipsarevic, or young American phenom Ryan Harrison. As a matter of fact, the Tipsarevic-Harrison matchup is the second-most interesting match I can identify out of the 64 in the first round of the draw.

Okay, half way there!

Moving on to the bottom half of the draw, Andy Roddick has been given a minefield of tricky players to work his way through. He opens against the very young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker. De Bakker has not yet won a grand slam match, so it's unlucky for him that his second is against last year's semifinalist. After that, things only get trickier. His second-round opponent is likely going to be Tomaz Bellucci, who is also gaining confidence, even though he has yet to post that big win that will put him on the map. He could face former finalist Rainer Schuettler next, or fellow American Sam Querrey. Sam doesn't seem to have to gotten over his injury quite yet, but he can get his kick-started here. And even once Roddick gets through that group, he'll have to face either Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez, or Evgeny Korolev. By no means an easy task.

Roddick is aiming to play the winner of the sixth section of the draw, which features Del Potro and Cilic as the top two seeds. While a clash between them is likely (during last year's AO, I predicted they would play plenty of times) it all depends on whether Del Potro is healthy. If not, there's a possible opening, and the player who would be most desperate to take it is James Blake. Cilic's little bit of the draw is very interesting, as he opens against Fabrice Santoro is what is basically a consolation match, just so Fabrice can play in a grand slam event in four different decades - 80's, 90's, 00's, and 10's. He is seeded to meet Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who he just faced down in two tiebreaks in the Chennai final a week ago. The other player in this section of the draw is Aussie wildcard Bernard Tomic, who opens against a qualifier, which is as much as he could have hoped for.

Since Murray dropped out of the top four, he may surprised to find himself in Nadal's quarter, rather than his own. But even so, he has to be happy with his draw. His section is conspicuously missing the heavy hitters who blew him off the court at all four majors last year. His first real test will be against either Jurgen Melzer or Jarkko Nieminen, but neither player should trouble him too much. But the player he'll face in the fourth round will be interesting. There's a likely second-round matchup between Daniel Koellerer and Gael Monfils, the two best showmen on the ATP tour. After that, Monfils could face Ferrer, which would be a fascinating contrast of styles. It's going to be tough for either to beat Murray, though.

Finally, to the last section of the draw, we find the most exciting first-round match of the tournament in Nadal's eighth, but it isn't anywhere near him. No, the best first-round matchup is between Radek Stepanek and Ivo Karlovic. You may recall, last year Karlovic lost to Stepanek in a Davis Cup rubber 16-14 in the fifth after playing four tiebreak sets! There is absolutely no way this match can live up to that, but it has potential to be excellent, nonetheless. Nadal actually has a tough draw, himself. He opens against a 30-year old Australian playing the tennis of his life, Peter Luczak. His third round match could be against one of two tough opponents, Phillip Kohlschreiber (who ousted Roddick at that stage in 2008) or John Isner (who just reached his second career tour final). And even after that, he'll have to get through either Stepanek, Karlovic, Mardy Fish, or Ivan Ljubicic.

I'll have more analysis in the coming days, particularly once the qualifiers are placed. Along with my picks, of course!