Austrian Open Wrap-up

That was a tough final for Andy Murray. He put up a better fight against Federer than he did at the U.S. Open, but only for one set out of three. Granted, that's better than none, but it's just not enough. Murray really should have won that third set on about four occasions. He served for it at 5-4, and in the tiebreak, he made two errors on set point. One, a down-the-line forehand that he sunk into the net, and another a backhand volley that sailed wide. Both were tough but makeable shots.

The idea of the blockbuster final that was expected seemed to vanish pretty early in the match, as Murray came out more defensive than he had played the entire tournament. You could see from the way he was getting Roger involved in slow backhand rallies that he wasn't in the kind of offensive mindset that he'd been in against Nadal. He never quite got to that level, but he did get closer in the third set. A disappointing day for Murray, but Roger turned out to be right in talking smack before the match. He had all the pressure, and he couldn't quite handle it.

Overall, it was an interesting tournament. Despite how much was said about what a wide open field it was and how this was the beginning of a new era in men's tennis, the final results looked a lot like a grand slam from Federer's years of complete dominance. There's no telling how many more of these he's going to win, because he clearly still has the game for it. Twenty titles is by no means an unrealistic goal at this point. Who's going to stand in his way?

Nadal's knees are giving him even worse trouble, and he's going to slide in the rankings after this tournament. Roddick, while more focused than most players when he faces Fed, just doesn't have the game to win. Murray, Djokovic, and a lot of the other young guns tend to just get overawed when they play Federer on a big stage. Del Potro is the only one who has managed a big win over a Roger who isn't ailing, but his long-term health is a question as well.

There weren't that many surprises in this tournament, now that I'm looking back on it. Cilic's run was impressive, but he'd been pegged for this kind of performance for a few years, so it wasn't entirely unexpected, and the draw did open for him, facing injured and tired players in the fourth round and quarterfinals. Davydenko showed once again that he can't beat Federer at a slam. Djokovic had another health problem affecting his play, but to his credit, he didn't pull out of the match. And Nadal's knees are just getting worse.

On the women's side, Justine Henin was by far the best story, but Nadia Petrova showed that she also may be bound for the top ten again. The Serbs and other Russians continued to struggle. The semifinal showings by two Chinese players seemed to indicate that China might be the next Russia, in terms of becoming a new tennis powerhouse. And the Williams sisters continued to keep American tennis relevant on the big stages, with a little (largely unnoticed) help from the Bryan brothers.

So it seems that reports of the new tennis era may have been largely exaggerated.

Women's final wrap-up and men's final preview

That was quite a final, last night. I'm inclined to say it was one of the better women's grand slam finals of the last three or four years, and if you throw out matches that featured Venus and Serena, it was probably the best for the last half-decade. I was surprised to see the way Henin played against Serena, not the way she had played their previous encounters. She was on the attack just about from the word go, and it very nearly worked. But in the end, Serena's serve and power was just a bit too strong for the Belgian.

But this has to be an encouraging result for Justine. Second tournament back, and she gets to the final and nearly beats the number one player in the world? Watch out at the French Open, which is Henin's best surface and Serena's worst. It will be interesting to see how committed she is to playing the smaller events on the tour, and how well she does at them.

It was a worthy match to decide the championship. If Justine had served a little better or Serena had served a little worse, or if Justine had capitalized on a few more of her break points, it could have swung either way. More than anything else, I root for good tennis, and I got what I was hoping for in that final. Excellent play from both competitors, and in the end, the player who was stronger that day came out on top.

I hope that the men's final tonight is as competitive, but I have my doubts. The most interesting thing going into this final is that Federer, now that he has completed his ascent to the top tier of the tennis pantheon, doesn't seem to mind saying it when he knows how good he is. When asked about the pressure of facing Murray, Federer was anything but deferential to his opponent, one of the few who has a winning record against him on tour today. To Federer, Murray was the one who was playing under all the pressure - the pressure of winning his first grand slam and of ending Britain's three-quarter century-long drought. And he would have to beat the greatest player of all time to do it.

Now, Federer's not wrong in saying anything of this, but he usually is a bit more guarded in his pre-match commentary. I'm used to hearing him say things like, "We've had a lot of tough matches in the past, he's gotten me a few times, so I know I'm going to have to go out there and play my best game to beat him." His candor is both surprising and a bit refreshing, when he doesn't give Murray much of a chance out there.

I'm not sure I do, either. The most relevant matches to look at are the last two, when Federer beat Murray at the end of year championships and last Masters Series tournament before the U.S. Open. The other match, and the one that Federer is going to be looking towards the most, is their meeting in the final of the 2008 U.S. Open, where Fed won in straights. That's their only other meeting in the majors, which is interesting by itself. In that same timeframe (since 2005), Federer and Roddick have met six times in Grand Slams.

In order for Murray to win tonight, he is going to have to be absolutely on the top of his game. His movement, serve, and backhand down the line are all going to have to be firing on all cylinders. He's also going to have to hope that Federer's level drops a bit from where it was in the last two and a half sets against Davydenko, or the entire match against Hewitt.

Fortunately for Murray, in two out of Roger's last three five-set finals, he's wilted in the fifth. He did it against Del Potro in New York and here against Nadal last year. I think that the longer this match goes, the better Murray's chances get. If he can stretch Federer to a fifth, I like his chances. But he has to be careful, and he has to start strong, or else he'll be out of there as quickly as he was the last time they met at this stage, which was 111 minutes.

Women's Final Tonight

After Federer breezed through Tsonga last night, there isn't a lot to say today, other than to tell Andy Murray to watch out. Federer himself abandoned most of his pretense at being a humble champion, and went ahead and talked some smack about Murray.

Anyway, moving ahead to the much-anticipated Women's final tonight, it really is a pick-em. Serena Williams is the favorite, as she has every right to be, since she is the world number one and the defending champion. But unranked Justine Henin, in just her second tournament back from retirement, is only a 2.12:1 underdog. Keep in mind that 2:1 is an even coin flip.

Justine has made it to the final, even though she hasn't displayed her most impeccable form. But on-form or not, her opponent has to be tired. Venus and Serena won the doubles title yesterday, and Serena did not look that much the worse for wear, but she has just played so much tennis lately. If she were as fresh as Justine, I'd take Serena on form, no question. As it stands, this has the potential to be one of the most interesting and competitive grand slam finals in recent history.

Or, of course, one of the players could be exhausted (either one, really) and unable to bring her best game, and we'll have another blowout. We'll wait and see what happens on the court.

Second semifinal, Australian Open

While the results were about what I expected from yesterday, the routes that the various matches took weren't quite what I thought they would be. Serena Williams struggled against a solid Li Na and was clearly hurting, physically. But after she won in straight sets, she went out with her sister and beat Lisa Raymond and Renee Stubbs in the doubles semifinal. The doubles final is today, and then the women's final is tomorrow. That's a lot of tennis for Serena to play in not a lot of time.

And her opponent in the final is going to be relatively fresh, as Justine Henin breezed through Zheng Jie, dropping only one game in the process. It would be a shame if the first meeting between these two champions in a major final featured a Serena who was at less than her best, but we'll see. Nadal should have been exhausted in last year's final as well, but he found a way to come out on top.

The men's semi from yesterday looked like it was going to be a repeat of the Murray-Cilic match from last year's U.S. Open, with Murray coming out tentative and Cilic coming out on fire. But Murray upped his game and his offense, while Cilic just ran out of gas. A great first run to the semifinals for the young Croat, and I expect we'll see him here again.

For tonight, Federer plays Tsonga. The pair have a 1-1 record, but their last meeting was one of the craziest ones from 2009. After Tsonga took the first set at Montreal in a tiebreak, Federer stepped it up. He took the second set 6-1, and then was up 5-1 in the third. Suddenly, amazingly, he took his foot off the gas, and Tsonga break Fed while he was serving for the match, twice. He then took the third in a tiebreak.

I don't expect Federer to drop off like that in this semifinal, and Tsonga has to be exhausted, after winning the first two five-set matches of his career in the last two rounds. It seems like a Murray-Federer final is all but a sure thing at this point. Unless J.W. "Ali" Tsonga can get back to the gear he was playing at two years ago at this tournament, but honestly, I haven't seen him play that well since.

Australian Open Semifinals Underway

I'm surprised at how much injuries and illnesses have proved to be in these late stages of the Australian Open. It is not a good sign for the rest of the season if the year is just underway and nobody can stay fit.

Djokovic was looking good against Tsonga last night, up two sets to one, when he became physically ill. I give him a lot of credit for two things - first of all, he didn't throw up in a flowerpot on court a la Pete Sampras, and second, he did finish the match, unlike last year. It's a shame, though. I don't know whether it was a problem with conditioning or something that he ate, or what, but he has to regret losing that first set tiebreak. If he'd taken it, he would have been off the court in straight sets. Instead, Tsonga is in to his second grand slam semifinal, where he will face...

Roger Federer, who gets half the credit in his win against Nikolay Davydenko. He was getting blown off the court for the first set and a half. He wasn't even in the match. But the moment that Davydenko blinked, Federer was more than happy to snatch control of the match out of the Russian's hands. They only played well at the same time in the last three games of the match, and it was Federer in four. Davydenko was at least very good-spirited in his defeat. You should definitely see his post-match interview, if you can.

Also, the Williams sisters' opponents showed much more game than I expected of either of them. Serena's match was a lot like Roger's, with Serena starting slow while Azarenka was blowing her off the court for the first set and a half. But then Serena started playing the best possible tennis. Not her best, but *the* best. There was nothing Azarenka could do after Serena reached that gear, except hope that Serena would let up. She didn't.

Venus was less lucky, losing an ugly third set against Li Na of China. She was broken five times in the last set, which went to 7-5. I wouldn't expect Serena to repeat that kind of performance against Li. That match is tonight, and the only danger is that Serena might not be able to recover very well without a day of rest in between her quarter and semifinal matches. Even without rest, I expect Serena to win.

Li Na's compatriot Zheng Jie has a tough ask as well, as she's up against Justine Henin in the other semifinal. The Chinese players are both trying to act as spoilers, preventing the world from getting the Serena-Justine final that everybody has been wanting since Clijsters was knocked out of the tournament. We'll see if that's what we get.

The men's semifinal tonight is a rematch of a fourth-round matchup from the U.S. Open, when Andy Murray came out distracted and never got his game together against Marin Cilic. I expect that things will be much tougher tonight. Marin has just played too much tennis, and add that to the fact that he's in his first grand slam semifinal, and this is Murray's match to win or lose. He was so sharp against Nadal, and he only had to play two sets. I expect him to be fresher, more focused, and hungrier.

Matches to watch, day 10

While the lineup for last night's matches may have prefigured a blockbuster, once again injuries kept us from getting as much as we could have. The Roddick-Cilic match was competitive, but it shouldn't have been. Roddick was hobbled and only managed to win a couple of sets when Cilic took an hour-long walkabout. In the fifth set, Cilic realized he had to start playing again while Roddick, who seemed within reach of an impossibly unlikely victory, tightened up. A very strange match.

But at least it was a match. Nadal and Murray played two tight sets before Nadal had to retire. Pencil Murray in through to the finals, as he won't be losing to Cilic in two slams in a row.

On the women's side, Justine Henin will face unlikely semifinalist Zheng Jie for a spot against whichever Williams sister opts to play better in the other half of the draw.

I admit that the events of the past few days have tempered my excitement for the upcoming season. If the players can't even stay healthy in the first month of the season, it's tough to expect them to do so for the last nine. But anyway...

Even though tonight's matches look like they could possibly be stunners, I'm feeling a bit cynical.

Roger Federer vs. Nikolay Davydenko - For the first few rounds of the tournament, Federer struggled while Davydenko looked like a world-beater. But in the 4th round, order was restored. Federer demolished Hewitt while Davydenko limped past Fernando "Hot Sauce" Verdasco, who gifted him nearly a set's worth of double-faults. While Davydenko may be 2-0 against Federer in the past couple of months, that run ends here.

Novak Djokovic vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Another potentially interesting match, and a rematch of the 2008 final, which Djokovic won. Since then, Tsonga has prevailed in four out of their five contests. But this is a grand slam, and it's three-out-five, where Djokovic has proven himself to be a stronger competitor than the Frenchman.

As for the women, the only reason one of the Williams sisters might lose is if they don't show up for the match. It's really out of their opponents' hands.

Matches to watch, day 9

Some of the possible tight contests from yesterday turned out to be rather one-sided, in the end. Federer and the Williams sisters all won, with only Venus having even a hiccup. Wozniacki lost injured, and Zvonareva had a patented meltdown. But that's not to say there weren't good matches!

Davydenko-Verdasco was hard fought, with some great shots and good rallies, but the only reason it was tough was due to a couple of mentally weak moments from both players. Verdasco nearly gave away an entire set in double-faults, while Davydenko hit fewer winners in 52 games yesterday than he did in 22 games in his first round match. Still, a good contest, for the honor of facing Federer.

Tsonga-Almagro was also a tough match, with a bit more mental toughness being shown by both players. Tsonga played (and won) his first five-setter, while Almagro stumbled just short of his first quarterfinal at a hard court major. Both players are tons of fun to watch, move well, and hit stupendous shots. Almagro should have had a better career by this point, considering his talent. He'll be back.

Looking ahead to the first night of the quarterfinals, the tournament has really entered crunchtime at this point. Really, every one of these is a match to watch.

Andy Murray v. Rafael Nadal - You could reasonably expect to see this match in a final, and here we are in the quarters. Murray has shown better form heading into this match (his play against Isner was imperious) but Nadal has the edge in their head-to-head, even on hardcourts. They met here for the first time three years ago and had a five-set epic, which Nadal ended up winning 6-1 in the fifth. At that point, it was all about fitness. This time, I think Murray is much stronger and healthier, so it will down to mental strength, and whether or not Nadal can get back into his very best form.

Andy Roddick v. Marin Cilic - Roddick must have been happy to see Del Potro out of the tourney, but the opponent he ended up with in the quarters is basically just Del Potro lite. Cilic has a similar game, with just less overwhelming power behind the forehand and fewer big-stage results. But he's just as eager, if not more so, by his lingering outside of the top ten. Roddick will have his work cut out for him, and he's had trouble with up-and-comers at the big stage, in the last few years.

Justine Henin v. Nadia Petrova - Even though she's only played about ten matches since her comeback started, Justine Henin has already beaten Petrova, in two tight sets in the first round at Brisbane. Even though Nadia has won two spectacular matches in the last two rounds, it's tough to see how her game has changed enough in the past three weeks to change the outcome of this match. But I keep saying Justine has got to be getting worn down by the grind of a Grand Slam, after so long away. I feel like I have to say it again, even if it's never going to actually be an issue.

Jie Zheng v. Maria Kirilenko - Two surprise quarterfinalists! Who knows which one of these two is going to make it through, but the odds are great that whichever one it is will then lose to either Henin or Petrova.

Matches to watch, day 8

Week 2 of the tournament officially starts today, and we definitely kicked it off with a bang last night. After a day full of blowouts and retirements, we had a day of excellent tennis yesterday, particularly on the men's side. Two quick reflections before moving on to look at the upcoming matches.

That was a very impressive display from Andy Roddick. He weathered a storm from Fernando Gonzalez, who was played out of his shoes for three sets, and still managed to come away with the win. Except for break point conversions, that was very solid play from Roddick. If he can up that stat, I like his chances against Cilic. They both might be tired from the matches they played today, as the tall Croat ousted Del Potro in another thriller.

I must admit that I feel really bad for Dinara Safina. She couldn't have asked for the draw to open up any better for her, and she was cruising, but the tone of her voice during her interview last night made it sound like her back is really a problem. Here's hoping she'll have a swift recovery.

Anyway, looking ahead to tonight's matches, there is a good chance that we'll see a reversal of fortune from two nights ago, when the top half of the men's draw frankly disappointed.

Roger Federer v. Lleyton Hewitt - I'll admit that it is difficult for me to imagine a scenario where Hewitt beats Federer, tonight. Despite a competitive head-to-head of 7-16, the last 14 matches have been won by Federer, going all the way back to 2005. Hewitt has looked sharp so far, but it's just such a big ask. Even with the crowd behind him, I'm not sure how he could pull it off.

Fernando Verdasco v. Nikolay Davydenko - This is for the pleasure of facing Federer in the quarters. Probably the tightest match tonight, at least potentially. Davydenko has been playing imperious tennis thus far, but he has routinely wilted in the second week at slams. If this is his time to really break through, he'll need to show it against last year's semifinalist.

William Sisters v. Two of last year's toughest players - Serena takes on Sam Stosur, while Venus takes on Francesca Schiavone. With neither Williams has really been tested so far, both of their opponents are the toughest that they've faced, yet this year. It could be a difficult pair of matches for them to come through.

Vera Zvonerava v. Victoria Azarenka - Azarenka should be the favorite here, but oddly enough, Victoria has never beaten Vera. So while I think that the younger player here has the better form going in, it's hard to bet on somebody who has never won a set!

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v. Nicolas Almagro - This could be interesting match, as both players are big hitters, but I think Almagro is struggling with some injury, and Tsonga is fired up after coming through Haas, a more tested opponent than Nicolas.

Expect Djokovic to blow through lucky 4th-rounder Lukasz Kubot in record time. He does not belong at this stage right now, and unfortunately for him, he knows it.

Matches to watch, day 7

We're into the first weekend, and the majority of the players are gone. Only 32 players are left out of the 256 which started the tournament, and the match-ups are starting to get tighter and tighter.

Yesterday may have been the most disappointing first friday of a major in recent history. In sharp contrast to the unbelievable weekend two years ago, which featured Federer getting pushed to five sets, Blake winning his first five-setter, and Hewitt and Baghdatis playing until nearly five in the morning, yesterday was characterized mostly by retirements and blowouts.

The only really competitive match was between JW Tsonga and Tommy Haas, and it almost made up for the dearth of good play in the other matches yesterday. Tsonga is looking strong, and should have little trouble with a hobbled Almagro. The Tsonga-Djokovic quarterfinal match (if it comes to pass) will be thrilling.

But looking ahead to today's matches, almost every one has the possibility (at least slightly) of an upset.

John Isner v. Andy Murray - These two have never played, and while Murray has not been challenged yet this tournament, that may actually work to his disadvantage. Isner has been on fire, hitting bombs on his serve, cracking winners from the back of the court of both wings, and pulling clutch volleys at net. Murray has such a great return that it may neutralize his best weapon, but John is more than just a big serve these days. And Isner is the kind of power player and big hitter that has troubled Murray in past grand slams.

Ivo Karlovic v. Rafael Nadal - The same could be said for this match, which features a massive server and one of the best returners in the game. If Karlovic has a good serving day and the conditions suit his game, it will be tough for Nadal to get involved. Dr. Ivo can pull off a huge upset on any given day. Remember, he ousted defending champ Lleyton Hewitt in the first round of Wimbledon in 2003.

Justine Henin v. Yanina Wickmayer - It's the battle of the Belgians! Just, not the one that everyone expected. Wickmayer is making the most of her suspended suspension, but this will be a tough ask, tonight. Justine, on the other hand, is so out of match practice that one has to expect she'll run out of gas eventually. She absolutely escaped against her opponent in the last round, so we'll see if she bounces back tonight or is even more drained than she was before.

Fernando Gonzalez v. Andy Roddick - Here's popcorn match of the night. Expect big hitting from both guys, as I don't know if Roddick will be able to grind as much as he did in his previous matches against something that hits as big as Gonzo. With Cilic's mental strength uncertain and Del Potro's injury seeming to continue to bother him, the winner of this match is almost certainly into the semis, where they will likely face an exhausted Nadal or Murray, whichever one comes out on top. This is an important match for both of these players.

Marin Cilic v. Juan Martin Del Potro - The two big guys are meeting at this year's Aussie Open, again. They played here last year, as well as at the U.S. Open. Their matches have been tight, but so far, DelPo has come out on top. Today, it's up for grabs. Cilic has shown flashes of brilliance as well as some stretches of lesser play, but so has the U.S. Open champion.

There are also a pair of Russians quietly moving through the draw who nobody seems to be paying attention to, yet. Safina plays Kirilenko, who upset Sharapova, and Kuznetsova plays Petrova, fresh off her win over Clijsters. Both of these players could announce that they're here to win the tournament, if they continue their levels of play tonight.

Matches to watch - Day 6

Day five at the Australian featured the biggest upset of the tournament, and I expect that it will remain so through the finals. The defending U.S. Open champion lost to Nadia Petrova, which is in itself not a huge upset, but the manner in which she lost was quite surprising. Kim Clijsters didn't even show up for her match, losing 6-0, 6-1. It was her worst loss as a professional player! Very strange result, since she was one of the favorites to win the tournament.

The majority of the other matches yesterday went as expected, except for a few slight upsets. John Isner beat Gael Monfils in a great match, Jelena Jankovic lost to a Bondarenko sister, and Ivan Ljubicic fell to Dr. Ivo. All technically upsets, but none of them a huge surprise. Dinara Safina, Justine Henin, and Svetlana Kuznetsova are all still in the draw, and one of the three will almost certainly be in the final.

The third round in the top half of the draw should be interesting, though it's unlikely to see a blowout against one of the tournament favorites like we saw last night. Here are the matches to pay attention to.

Serena Williams v. Carla Suarez Navarro - The defending champion and world number faces her first potential challenger. Navarro beat Venus Williams at least year's Aussie Open, so Serena may be looking for revenge. The young, small Spanish player burst onto the scene in 2008, making the quarters at her first grand slam event. She hasn't been able to build on that success yet, though.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v. Tommy Haas - The 2008 finalist will be playing a three-time semifinalist. Both players have proven themselves to be very skilled strikers of the ball as well as being extremely popular with the fans. It's tough to predict what's going to happen in a match like this, but I lean towards Tsonga coming out on top.

Lleyton Hewitt v. Marcos Baghdatis - Who wasn't looking forward to this match? Last year's late night thriller was an amazing contest, and their meeting earlier this year was tough. Hewitt should be even more pumped after losing to Baggy so recently, while Baghdatis is eager to show that he's ready for the top ten again. This is going to be the one to keep an eye on tonight.

Matches to watch, day 5

We're nearing the completion of our first (work) week of tennis. There was some excellent play yesterday, along with some less-than-ideal coverage from ESPN. I won't go into it further, but I was very disappointed in the way that the announcers treated the Williams sisters.

Anyway, the best match of the day yesterday was Marcos Baghdatis against David Ferrer. Ferrer started off the stronger of the two players, his ability to run down balls more effective than Baghdatis's ability to make shots. But after winning a tiebreak in the third set, Ferrer began to tire. Baghdatis won the next set, and then started to run away with the fifth. It looked like things might take a turn when Baggy cramped while serving for the match at 5-1 in the fifth, but he managed to pull himself together and get the W. An amazing comeback for a player who's back to his best. It was Ferrer's first loss from two-sets to love up. In fact, it was his first time even being taken to a fifth set after getting off to such a strong start!

The match between Juan Monaco and Michael Llodra was similar, with Llodra winning the first two sets, but fading after the third set tiebreak. It was all over, after that. The Tipsarevic-Haas match was also good, but much more up and down, as might be expected. Haas ended up to be the last one playing well, so he won the match.

In addition to these good matches, there were some excellent performances. Federer and the Williams sisters were dominating in their matches, as was Mikhail Youzhny, who backed up his marathon match against Richard Gasquet with a quick win the second round. Donald Young, even though he lost to Lleyton Hewitt in three, managed to stay with the former world number one for two sets, which is an encouraging result for the young American.

Looking ahead to the first Friday and the first set of third round matches, things are really starting to get intersting.

The most interesting matches on center court today feature Andy Roddick against the serving and volleying lefty Spaniard Feliciano Lopez, which is match that ought to feature quite a few aces. The other is Phillip Kohlschreiber against Rafael Nadal. The German upset Roddick at this stage two years ago, but it would be a massive upset for him to have a repeat performance against Nadal. Del Potro should have a lot less trouble against Florian Mayer than he did against Blake, unless that marathon match further hampered his injury. But the real contests are elsewhere on the grounds.

John Isner v. Gael Monfils - This is a magnificent contrast in styles, with one of the biggest servers in the game against one of the game's best returners. Monfils played the only match in which Ivo Karlovic was prevented from serving a single ace. But that was on clay, so we can expect Isner to get a few in. They've played a few times already and had some stupendous matches, but Isner is a player on the rise, and assuming he was able to make full use of his day off to recover, this one should be a battle.

Marin Cilic v. Stanislas Wawrinka - Cilic just notched his first win over Wawrinka in the Chennai final two weeks ago. Before that, the Swiss number two had won their first four meetings. Their most recent match went to two tough tiebreaks, and I expect that this should also be a tough one. Cilic did not play particularly well in his previous match against Tomic, so he'll need to get his form back to face the solid play and beautiful backhand of Stan the Man.

Ivan Ljubicic v. Ivo Karlovic - The number two and three Croatian players (after Cilic) are facing over in the second match on Hisense arena. Despite both players having been on tour for at least 10 years, they've only played one prior time, with Karlovic winning, but that was on grass. This should be a tough one.

And there are also three really tough women's matches on the docket, the two Belgians against tough Russian seeds, with Henin facing Kleybanova and Clijsters against Nadia Petrova. Everyone is expecting them to run into each other in the quarters, but they still have to win a couple more matches before that happens.

And there are two wayward world number ones who need to reassert their dominance. Dinara Safina, who is quietly playing very well so far, is facing an unseeded British player, while Jelena Jankovic will have to take out the second Bondarenko sister. The middle of the tournament is in some ways the best, the third and fourth rounds, because the players who have gotten this far have proven that they have good form, but there is plenty of action.

Day 4 matches to watch

It's going to be tough to top last night. The Blake-Del Potro match was a thriller, and the Henin-Dementieva match did feel more like a semi than a 2nd round. And even though the players I picked in both came up short in the end, it was great to be able to watch such high-level tennis played between two pairs of great competitors. And big props to JDMP and Justine Henin, who proved to be just a hair tougher in the pressure situations than their opponents. Best night of the tournament so far (out of three!) no question.

I've said it before, but I really hope that Blake is encouraged by this loss, since he laid it all on the line and showed that he can still play. It sucks that somebody had to walk away from that match a loser, but there's no reason he can't get his ranking back to top-20 this year, if he plays like that.

Great effort by John Isner as well, to come through against a scrappy (if inexperienced opponent) in straight sets, giving him the maximum amount of time to rest before he faces Gael Monfils in the next round. You better believe that's going to make my write up for day 5.

Since I was exhausted from the concurrent, epic matches that took place early last night, I didn't manage to stay up and watch any of the Tomic-Cilic match, but I was shocked to see Cilic stretched to five sets by the Aussie. Maybe there's something behind all the hype, after all.

After all that, it's almost inevitable to feel a bit of a letdown tonight, when there are some good matches scheduled but nothing that immediately jumps out as a contender for the excitement that we had on day 3. But who knows? That's why we play the tennis.

Lleyton Hewitt v. Donald Young - I've talked about "The Donald" before, and I really do think he has the talent to make a career on the pro circuit. I don't know what he's been doing in the off-season, but making it through three rounds of quallies and then beating a solid top-100 player like Christophe Rochus is encouraging. Of course, that doesn't mean he has much of a shot against a former world number one in his own backyard. Hewitt played very well in his first match, and he's beaten Young before. But this has potential not to be a blowout.

Marcos Baghdatis v. David Ferrer - This was originally going to be Baghdatis-Simon before the Frenchman's withdrawal, which I thought would have been a slam dunk for the Cypriot. But since Gilles was replaced with the Spanish Pit Bull, it looks like it will be tougher, as Baghdatis has yet to take a set off Ferrer in their two meetings. At the moment, only 13 places separate these two in the rankings. I think either one could conceivably come out on top, and it should be a fun ride on the way. One of the matches with the best chances for fireworks.

Jo-Wilfriend Tsonga v. Taylor Dent - Both of these players cruised in their first-round matches, but I think it's fair to bet that this round will be more challenging. Just based on experience and recent performance, you'd think that this match would go to Tsonga in a rout, but "Ali" has had trouble with big servers in the past, and Dent can serve like 2003-era Roddick when he gets in a groove. This is going to be as much a boxing match as a tennis match, so expect lots of big hitting.

I don't think that they're going to be particularly exciting matches, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the Williams sisters, who have found themselves on the second court today. They really shouldn't see this as a slight, though, since the two women's matches on Rod Laver arena today feature Australians. And pushing them off to the second stage is just an indication of the tournament's belief that both of those matches are going to be blowouts, and there's no reason for me to disagree. Watch out, Bammer and Kvitova.

The last possibility I have for a crackerjack match is between veteran player Tommy Haas and the Serbian question mark Janko "Tipsy" Tipsarevic. You never know what kind of game Tipsarevic is going to bring to the court, but if he brings his best, this one could be fun. Also, did you know that Germany (where Haas is from) has more singles players remaining in the tournament than any other country at this point? For a country that hasn't produced a grand slam winner since Boris Becker and Steffi Graf, that's a good showing.

Matches to Watch - Day 3

While Maria Kirilenko managed the biggest upset of the first day when she unseated former champ Sharapova, her boyfriend Igor Andreev came up just a bit short against Roger Federer. After missing some set points in the third set and failing to serve it out to go up a two sets to one lead, Igor wilted in the fourth and Roger was through. But it was a tough match!

The upset that did happen yesterday was Spaniard Marcel Granollers five-set win over top-ten player and French Open finalist Robing Soderling. It looks like Soderling's lingering injuries proved to be his undoing in this tightly contested match. He's the first top ten seed to stumble on either side of the draw, but he played himself ragged in the first few weeks of the year, and his withdrawal from Kooyong did not bode well.

Sam Querrey's pre-Aussie Open performance also did not suggest he'd have a strong showing, and drawing a former finalist in the first round didn't help. Unfortunately, Sam was ushered out by Rainer Schuettler. I'm still hoping to see that his injury didn't effect him too much, and that he can get back to the level he was playing at during the hardcourt swing last summer.

Another American who suffered a devastating loss was Melanie Oudin, who looked to be cruising against Russian seeded player Alla Kudryavtseva, but she stumbled, despite having match points. I had said that Oudin's sophomore year would be tough, and she's off to a less-than-ideal start. But her toughness is her best quality, so expect to see her again down under.

And did I call the Gasquet-Youzhny match or what? Great hitting by both players. It's a shame that the Frenchman seemed to be hindered by an abdominal injury during much of the match, but he gets ushered out at the Aussie Open in another five-set thriller. It's got to be tough to deal with.

Anyway, looking ahead to today's action...

Elena Dementieva v. Justine Henin - This is the match-up of the day, without question. It will be Henin's first match against a top-ten player since her unretirement, and it has the potential to be a classic. Dementieva is a player who is trying to remind everyone that she's here and should be in contention at these tournaments. The BetFair odds put this match at just about even, giving Elena a slight edge. I'll be staying up to watch this one, for sure.

James Blake v. Juan Martin Del Potro - This wouldn't be a close contest, with Del Potro possibly still not having reached the height of his powers and Blake almost certainly in the Autumn of his career, but Del Po may be suffering from some injury problems, which would give the heavy hitting American a chance. You know he wants to prove himself, and this may be his best opportunity. Look for some of the hardest hit forehands of the year in this match.

Andy Roddick v. Tomaz Bellucci - Another young, up-and-coming player stands in the way of the number one American. Bellucci has more conrete results than De Bakker has had on tour, though. Bellucci has excellent ground strokes and an excellent return of serve, which could prove to be a challenge for Andy.

Yanina Wickmeyer v. Flavia Pennetta - You don't usually see two top-twenty players facing off in the second round, but Wickmeyer's ban has resulted in her crazy placement in the draw. She proved she's willing to fight in the first round (both of quallies and the main draw) but will she be exhausted when she comes up against the world's top Italian?

I'm sure that there will be more great matches tonight, but these are the ones that jump out at me for their potential. For what else turns out to be exciting, we'll just have to wait and see.

Matches to Watch - Day 2

Well, day one had its fair share of excitement, despite the weather in Melbourne not cooperating. The line-up wasn't completed on any court save for the two covered that had retractable roofs. There were some excellent matches though, and two seeded
players upset.

On the men's side, the upset was not a huge shock, as Radek Stepanek lost to Ivo Karlovic in five sets. It was revenge for the Davis Cup loss last year, so good for Dr. Ivo. It's a shame for Stepanek, who made the final in Brisbane in the lead-up to the Aussie Open. Another player on the men's side who had a good warm-up tournament was Mardy Fish, who took eventual champion Marcos Baghdatis to three tight sets. Fish lost to Andrey Golubev, ranked 131 in the world. It looked like a pretty sloppy match, with both players making at least 50 unforced errors. But Fish hit only 16 winners to Golubev's 44. It may have been the heavy conditions and the frequent rain delays, but Mardy has to be disappointed.

But I bet he's not as disappointed as Maria Sharapova, who lost to friend and fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko. In one of the longest women's matches in Australian Open history, it wasn't Sharapova's double faults that did her in, like at the US Open last year. Eleven is a lot of double faults, but it is half as many as Sharapova had in her loss to Melanie Oudin. It was Sharapova's 77 unforced errors that did it, and when they occurred. She actually won more points than Kirilenko, but she didn't win the ones she needed to.

Other seeds and favorites cruised - the ones that got to play their matches, anyway. In addition to the matches I made note of yesterday that haven't finished yet, here are some other matches to watch on Day 2.

Roger Federer v. Igor Andreev - This is among Federer's tougher first-round matchups at Grand Slams in recent years. Andreev is a big-hitter with one of the biggest forehands in the game. But he knows that's his biggest shot, and he'll go well out of his way to avoid hitting his backhand. Watch for Rajah to send most of his balls to that side, and then hit a ton of winners down the line when Andreev runs around his weaker shot to rip a forehand.

Fernando Verdasco v. Carsten Ball - It's tough to be an up-and-coming young player if you keep getting paired with unreasonably difficult first rounds. Carsten is poised for a breakthrough, but he won't be able to do it against last year's semifinalist and recent winner of the Kooyong exhibition. Verdasco is also a lefty with a big serve, so Ball won't have as much of an advantage as he usually does.

Richard Gasquet v. Mikhail Youzhny - Both of these players are grand slam semifinalists who aren't playing their best tennis at the moment. Both of them are extremely talented, with beautiful one-handed backhands, while both lack the mental fortitude of some of their more successful peers. While Gasquet has the edge in artistry and shot-making ability, Youzhny has more pace on his shots. It should be a good contest.

Christophe Rochus v. Donald Young - While Olivier's match against Fernando Gonzalez didn't turn out to be quite as tight as I thought it might be, the elder, taller, and less successful Rochus has a much better chance against the young American Young. But "the Donald" definitely wants to put his frustrations behind him, and he couldn't have gotten much better than the lesser Rochus brother. While these aren't the two greatest players to meet today, they should still be closely matched, so it could be a good match.

Barbara Zahlavova vs. Virginia Kulikova - A match set to finish from yesterday, these two relatively unknown Eastern Europeans (a Russian and a Czech) are at 4-3 in the third set, after the first two went to tiebreaks. The first breaker was 7-5 and the second was 12-10. Since there's no tiebreaker in the third set, this match could go on all day.

John Isner v. Andreas Seppi - Isner is riding high, having just won his first title, while Seppi is the very talented but easily frustrated Italian player who probably hasn't lived up to his talent. The only concern for Isner in this match is that he may be tired from the last week, but otherwise, he should ace his way past Seppi without a great of trouble.

Also watch for the Williams sisters in action. Serena's first grand slam match after her meltdown in New York should be interesting. I expect that the Australian fans will have (rightly) forgotten about that event, and welcome their defending champion back with open arms.

Day 1 Matches to Watch

The first round at a grand slam is always a mix of blow-out matches, with qualifiers having run themselves ragged just getting to the main draw or wildcards falling under the buzzsaw of a top seed, and tight affairs that really should have fallen later in the tournament. It's just the luck of the draw. But even when the odds are stacked strongly in favor of one player, there can still be some surprisingly good contests. When a young gun finds himself facing a player in the top ten in the first round of a major, he knows he has nothing lose; he can swing freely, and sometimes that works out.

Looking to the actual matches, the first day of tennis down in Melbourne this year has a good deal of potential for excellent matches. There are quite a few on the docket that will let us know how some of the top players are feeling, physically and mentally, heading into the first major of the year. So let me take a look at some of my choice match-ups for day 1 of the 2010 Australian Open.

Maria Sharapova v. Maria Kirilenko: The first match on Rod Laver arena, this battle of the Marias should be interesting, just to see how Sharapova is feeling. Since she won the title in 2008 but didn't play last year, she's one of two players (the other being Serena) with a winning streak in Melbourne. She only made the third round at the USO last year, but I'm sure she'd like to get back to her winning ways in 2010.

Andy Murray v. Kevin Anderson: It's surprsing to me that Murray made it on to the center court, while Del Potro, who is ranked higher and won the last grand slam, is on Hisense Arena, the second court. It might be because the organizers expect that Kevin Anderson, the big-serving Russian and former NCAA star, could give Murray a run for his money. I expect that Murray will beat his opponent, who is ranked more than 140 places lower, but Anderson does have the kind of big-hitting power game that has troubled Murray in the past.

Peter Luczak v. Rafael Nadal: The night session is starting with a men's match, this year! And it will be a doozy. Peter Luczak is the 30-year old Australian who would is experiencing his best career run. It's a shame for him and his Aussie fans that he happened to run into the defending champion and buzz saw that is Rafael Nadal in the first round. But expect the fans to buoy Luczak, who might take a set.

Jelena Dokic v. Alisa Kleybanova: If Luczak gives Nadal a fight, expect the crowd to be especially riled up in their support of Jelena Dokic. She had a magical run at the AO last year, and they'll do everything they can to help her repeat it this year. She starts against a seed, but she probably couldn't have asked for a better seed to start against. This one could be an upset.

Magdalena Rybarikova v. Dinara Safina: The first match on the second court features Dinara Safina, who should be glad to know that she can't start off this year any worse than she finished the last one. As she struggled against opponents ranked in the 100s at the U.S. Open last year, she has to have reached the bottom. Now that she slipped from the number one spot, maybe she can forget about all the people hounding her about how it was undeserved. Maybe she'll bounce back and play the way she did to get that ranking in the first place. Or maybe she'll continue to falter.

Andy Roddick v. Thiemo De Bakker: On paper, this looks like a Roddick rout. But De Bakker is a tall and rangy young Dutch player, who has a very strong future ahead of him. I'm not saying that one should look for an upset in this match, but Roddick played an incredibly tough match against JW Tsonga in the first round of the Aussie Open in 2007, which Roddick won despite losing a tiebreaker in the first set 20-18. The next year, Tsonga made it all the way to the final.

Guillaume Rufin v. Bernard Tomic: Australian wildcard and young gun Bernard Tomic couldn't have asked for much more when he saw the draw, facing a qualifier. He may not have been thrilled to see the player that he was match with, though. Guillaume Rufin is the highest-ranked teenager on the ATP tour. That may be in 170s, but it's still higher than 17-year old Tomic. It's surprising that two of the handful of teenagers in the men's draw (there can't be more than four) would play each other in the first round. But the Aussies should have Tomic's back, and he'll probably win a match, just like he did last year here, and Rufin did at the French Open in 2009.

Olivier Rochus v. Fernando Gonzalez: Two things that you should know about Olivier Rochus. First of all, he is the shortest player in the ATP top 100. Second, he is so talented, that he would be a top five player if he was five inches taller. If you've ever seen him play, he is a lot of fun to watch. He moves amazingly well, has a beautiful, flowing one-handed backhand, and has an impressive serve considering his diminutive stature. It probably won't be enough to combat the firepower of Fernando Gonzalez, unfortunately.

Marin Cilic v. Fabrice Santoro: This is an odd match. Santoro was invited out of retirement by the Australian Open this year so he'll have the record of having played in a grand slam event in four different decades, since he played his first at the French Open in 1989. But he's said that he's not going to play it like an exhibition, and even at 37 years old, he has the finesse and shot-making ability to frustrate anyone, particularly tall, big-hitting Eastern Europeans. Cilic is a dark horse to make it deep into the tournament, but he'll have to get past a tricky opponent in the first round to do so.

Radek Stepanek v. Ivo Karlovic: This is my favorite first-round match up. After watching last year's Davis Cup tie where they played three tiebreaks and 16-14 fifth set, these guys have demonstrated that they can put on a show. Both players like to come to net, both players frustrate their opponents, and both players like to do celebratory dances when they win. If you're at the event, park yourself at court six as soon as you get in through the gates.

James Blake v. Arnaud Clement: Also on court six, this match has the potential to be a winner. Blake is trying to revive his career and Clement is just coming off a final in the most recent Aussie Open warm-up event. Big-hitting against big-retrieving, this is an interesting match-up in styles. While it could be a good match, it's also the case that Blake is 7-0 against the sunglasses-wearing Frenchman.

Rainer Schuettler v. Sam Querrey: This match looks a lot like the previous one, with a big-hitting American against a counterpuncher. But Sam Querrey has yet to win a match this year, and Schuettler is a former finalist here. Depending on how well he's recovered from his injury during the Asian swing last year, this could be a really tough match.

Australian Open Predictions

The 2010 Australian Open starts in just six hours. As I've indicated previously, there are any number of great storylines to keep an eye on at this tournament. But the greatest part about the tournament actually happening is that we don't know the way that it's going to play out. With 128 players in the draw, the number of possible outcomes for the way it will unfold is almost unimaginably vast (technically, 3.4 * 10^38), but there are some things I can say with utmost certainty.

The majority of the favorites will move through the draw as expected, but there will be a handful of surprising upsets. There will be several spectacular matches between players of comparable skill performing at their highest levels, but there will be more matches where the winner is never in doubt and one player is simply outclassed by another. Some matches will fail to live up to their billing due to mental fatigue or physical injury in one or both players. Some of the best matches of the tournament will be ones that no one expected to turn into classics, and some of the duds will be the ones that showed the most potential.

Top players will face challenged from unexpected, lower-tier opponents who manage to play the matches of their lives. At least one mid-to-lower-level player will make a statement that he or she is aiming to rise to the next level of the game. More than one top player will not inevitably not make it as far as they are seeded to go. Even though the Australian Open is famous for getting unexpected players into the final, the players who make it to the last four on both sides will all be recognizable. Even if there are first-time semifinalists, they will be players who have been touted as having that capability.

I hope that there are a couple of matches this year that reach the levels of Nadal-Verdaso or Gasquet-Gonzalez from last year, or Federer-Tipsarevic or Baghdatis-Hewitt from the year before. It would be magnificent to have a match like Roddick-El Aynoui from way back in 2002, but not every grand slam tournament has a match for the ages during its fortnight.

I hope that not too many players are troubled by injury or fatigue, but this is always a tough slam, so I think it's likely that there will be at least eight retirements in the first two rounds of the men's and women's draws. I hope that there aren't any after the fourth round.

I hope that the final lives up to its billing. We were spoiled last year with three of the four men's grand slam finals going to five sets. The last Australian Open final to go to five was Mats Wilander and Pat Cash in 1988. It doesn't happen very often when the decisive match of the tournament is also its best, but it's wonderful when it does. Whether the final is made up of established big names, first-timers, or one of each, I just hope it's a good match.

That's what I hope for the whole tournament, really. I have my own preferences about who would win, but I'd rather just watch high-level tennis, regardless of who's playing.

Australian Open Draw Analysis

The draw is out; let the predictions begin!

There are so many ways to look at a tennis tournament's drawsheet, but what I like to do first is see what the quarterfinals would look like if the top eight seeds hold up, which has never happened in a grand slam, but is still a good way to get a sense of the where the top players are in the tournament. In-depth analysis will follow.

Top quarter:

Federer (1) vs. Davydenko (6) - There was a time when this would have been a dream for Roger Federer, as the Swiss had owned the Russian in 12 meetings. However, Davydenko has beaten Federer twice in a row in the last few months, and while he's yet to do it at a grand slam, I don't think Fed wanted to see this man waiting for him.

Second quarter:

Djokovic (3) vs. Soderling (8) - A pretty good draw for the Djoker, particularly since Soderling just retired from his match at the Kooyong exhibition with an injury. This would be better if Soderling hadn't just notched his first win against Novak at the year-end championships in London, but with a 5-1 record, he has to be fairly happy with this opponent.

Third quarter:

Roddick (7) vs. Del Potro (4) - Not ideal for Andy, because he has lost to Del Potro on all three times that they've met. However, DelPo has also been struggling with injury and pulled out of a match at Kooyong, so that may work in Roddick's favor. They both fell to Roger Federer last year (Del Po in the quarters, Roddick in the semis) and I'm sure Roddick is particularly happy to be in the other half of the draw, this year.

Fourth quarter:

Murray (5) vs. Nadal (2) - The defending champion ends up with Murray as his quarterfinal opponent, since the Scot let his ranking slip out of the top four last week. Murray is 2-7 against Nadal, but both of those wins did come on hard courts, one at the U.S. Open in 2008. The Spaniard will have to work hard and reverse several months of less-than-stellar form to defend his title.

Of course, to get this point, the top eight have to get through 120 other players first. As I said, the top eight seeds have never all made it to the quarterfinal at a grand slam in the open era, so the odds of at least one of the aforementioned players losing before this stage is almost a hundred percent. But who's going to topple early?

Federer has a favorable draw, as is usually the case with the top-seeded player. His opening round match should actually be the toughest of his first three, no matter who he faces. Fed plays Igor Andreev, who took the Swiss to five sets at the US Open's round of 16 in 2008. Once Roger gets past him, his next two rounds will almost inevitably feature clay court specialists. The fourth round for Federer could be interesting, as he'll likely face either Lleyton Hewitt, Marcos Baghdatis, or Giles Simon. Two of them are former finalists here, and all three want to get back to the top ten.

Davydenko arguably has an even easier road than Federer, as the Russian opens against a qualifier, then players either another qualifier or Carlos Moya, who is also an Aussie Open runner-up, but that was 12 years ago. Davydenko's section has more qualifiers than other eighth of the drew (five) and two of the other three seeds are clay-corut specialists, Juan Monaco and Juan Carlos Ferrero, who isn't quite as far past his prime as Moya, but a deep run from him is not especially likely. Davydenko's likely fourth-round would be against last year's semifinalist Fernando Verdasco, and that could be a tough match. But Verdasco as only one once against Davydenko in seven tries. It's unlikely that Aussie wildcard Carsten Ball opens against Verdasco, because that's a tough ask, but he's got an outside chance of pulling the upset. The other potential spoiler in Davydenko's section is Ernests Gulbis, if he decides to play as well as he's capable.

Djokovic's eighth of the draw is quite favorable. The first seed he might meet is erratic young Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, who hasn't made it past the second round at any grand slam event not held on his home soil. He might meet Mikhail Youzhny or Tommy Robredo next, and while both are excellent players who have at least one win over Djoker, I think that Novak can handle both. The dangerous floaters in this section of the draw are unseeded former slam semifinalists Richard Gasquet and Robby Ginepri.

The last section in the top half of the draw has the least amount of distance between the top two seeds. Particularly if Soderling turns up injured, this may turn out to be Tsonga's section, instead. I know Djokovic would rather face the Swede than Tsonga, since JW has owned Novak in four out of five matches since they first met in the final here two years ago. In any case, Soderling would have to get by tough Spanish lefty Nicolas Almagro to face Tsonga, but Tsonga would have to beat either Taylor Dent, Taylor Haas, Janko Tipsarevic, or young American phenom Ryan Harrison. As a matter of fact, the Tipsarevic-Harrison matchup is the second-most interesting match I can identify out of the 64 in the first round of the draw.

Okay, half way there!

Moving on to the bottom half of the draw, Andy Roddick has been given a minefield of tricky players to work his way through. He opens against the very young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker. De Bakker has not yet won a grand slam match, so it's unlucky for him that his second is against last year's semifinalist. After that, things only get trickier. His second-round opponent is likely going to be Tomaz Bellucci, who is also gaining confidence, even though he has yet to post that big win that will put him on the map. He could face former finalist Rainer Schuettler next, or fellow American Sam Querrey. Sam doesn't seem to have to gotten over his injury quite yet, but he can get his kick-started here. And even once Roddick gets through that group, he'll have to face either Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez, or Evgeny Korolev. By no means an easy task.

Roddick is aiming to play the winner of the sixth section of the draw, which features Del Potro and Cilic as the top two seeds. While a clash between them is likely (during last year's AO, I predicted they would play plenty of times) it all depends on whether Del Potro is healthy. If not, there's a possible opening, and the player who would be most desperate to take it is James Blake. Cilic's little bit of the draw is very interesting, as he opens against Fabrice Santoro is what is basically a consolation match, just so Fabrice can play in a grand slam event in four different decades - 80's, 90's, 00's, and 10's. He is seeded to meet Stan "the Man" Wawrinka, who he just faced down in two tiebreaks in the Chennai final a week ago. The other player in this section of the draw is Aussie wildcard Bernard Tomic, who opens against a qualifier, which is as much as he could have hoped for.

Since Murray dropped out of the top four, he may surprised to find himself in Nadal's quarter, rather than his own. But even so, he has to be happy with his draw. His section is conspicuously missing the heavy hitters who blew him off the court at all four majors last year. His first real test will be against either Jurgen Melzer or Jarkko Nieminen, but neither player should trouble him too much. But the player he'll face in the fourth round will be interesting. There's a likely second-round matchup between Daniel Koellerer and Gael Monfils, the two best showmen on the ATP tour. After that, Monfils could face Ferrer, which would be a fascinating contrast of styles. It's going to be tough for either to beat Murray, though.

Finally, to the last section of the draw, we find the most exciting first-round match of the tournament in Nadal's eighth, but it isn't anywhere near him. No, the best first-round matchup is between Radek Stepanek and Ivo Karlovic. You may recall, last year Karlovic lost to Stepanek in a Davis Cup rubber 16-14 in the fifth after playing four tiebreak sets! There is absolutely no way this match can live up to that, but it has potential to be excellent, nonetheless. Nadal actually has a tough draw, himself. He opens against a 30-year old Australian playing the tennis of his life, Peter Luczak. His third round match could be against one of two tough opponents, Phillip Kohlschreiber (who ousted Roddick at that stage in 2008) or John Isner (who just reached his second career tour final). And even after that, he'll have to get through either Stepanek, Karlovic, Mardy Fish, or Ivan Ljubicic.

I'll have more analysis in the coming days, particularly once the qualifiers are placed. Along with my picks, of course!

Noteworthy upsets and withdrawals plus Aussie Open quallies!

The second week of the season has featured a few surprising upsets and not-so-surprising withdrawals, but I'd imagine the tournament organizers were none too happy to see these players out of their tournaments before Wednesday.

Nalbandian withdrew from Auckland before playing his match against Kohlschreiber, which I think puts the Argentine in doubt for the Australian Open, since this would have been his only tune-up event. Gael Monfils also withdrew from Sydney, which is not so much of a surprise, considering how heavily he was taped last week in Brisbane. Vera Zvonerava also stopped her match against Elena Vesnina after only six games with an ankle injury. This is on top of Justine Henin and Roger Federer withdrawing from their events, earlier in the week.

In Sydney, Evgeny Korolev beat Sam Querrey in the first round, which will mean that the recently-injured American will be 0-2 going into the first grand slam of the year, which is certainly not the way he would have wanted to start out his year, I'm sure. The Bryan Brothers also lost to first time doubles pairing Wassen and Zeballos, which was definitely a shock. On the women's side, Dominika Cibulkova beat third-seeded (and ranked) Svetlana Kuznetsova, Aggi Szavay beat Jelena Jankovic, and Na Li beat fourth-seed Caroline Wozniacki, so the upset bug is all over.

It just goes to show that some of the top players have trouble finding their form at the very start of the season, which is why the Australian Open often has the most surprising winners and finalists of any of the grand slams.

With all these upsets and withdrawals, some players are getting an easy route through their tournaments. Serena Williams can't face another seed until the final, for example. Others are not so lucky. The bottom quarterfinal of the women's draw in Sydney will feature Elena Dementieva against Dinara Safina, which has the potential to be an exciting match, or at least a good bellwether of how these two players' years are starting.

In Kooyong, the organizers were apparently unable to woo either of the Andys into playing the full three days, so they ended up replacing Roger Federer with Ivan Ljubicic, who is a fine player, but probably not what they had hoped for this year. So the Kooyong matchups are Djokovic-Haas, Fernando-Fernando, Soderling-Tsonga, and Ljubicic-Del Potro. It will be interesting to see who out of that group of top players has started the year on form.

Looking to the Aussie Open qualifying draw, there are some very interesting first-round matches. The quallies are incredibly important to the players in them, because getting a few rounds in a grand slam is the best way to rack up a chunk of points for the following year, but you have to win these mini-tournaments to have a chance. Here's my list of significant match-ups:

Xavier Malisse-Alex Kuznetsov, Marc Lopez-Donald Young, Josselin Ouanna-Joseph Sirianni, Yuki Bhambri-Jan Minar, Ryler DeHeart-Stefan Koubek, Grigor Dimitrov-Robert Kendrick, and Peter Polansky-Marcel Ilhan. Sixteen out of these 128 players will get into the main draw, which is a tough cut. There are a ton of up-and-coming players here, as well as more establish challenger pros who are knocking at the door of the top 100. It should be fun to see who makes it through.

Aussie Open 4th Round

The third round of the AO had it's share of disappointments, but on the whole, I'd say it lived up to its potential. The hype over the Federer-Safin match was entirely unjustified, and the way the match ended up reflected that. Safin circa 2005 bears basically no resemblance to Safin 2009.

The biggest surprise of the third round, at least to me, is that realization of how well Fernando Verdasco is playing. He's played three complete matches and lost only 12 games. In comparison, Andy Murray has played two and a half matches (since Pavel retired) and has lost 19 games. They're going to play in the fourth round, and even though Murray is far and away the favorite (8:1 at BetFair, and for comparison, Baghdatis is 3.65:1) the other Fernando could really make this a match.

Of course, the Gonzalez-Gasquet match was also spectacular. Match of the tournament, thus far. Gasquet has now been paid back twice over for coming back from two sets down to beat Roddick at Wimbledon in 2007. Andy Murray did it to him at Wimby in 08, and now Gonzo's done it to him again. It's a shame someone had to lose, because it was just a stellar match, lots of drama, incredible shotmaking, injuries, and to go to 10-12 in the 5th. Whew. Let's just hope Gonzo recovers so he can show up for his match against Nadal.

The upsets of the third round were neither that exciting or surprising, but it's good to see Baghdatis, Berdych, and Cilic all playing well. I think Ferrer, Fish, and Wawrinka are all on a downward slide.

Looking at the matches in the fourth round, the only players who I don't give more than a 10% shot to are Tomas Berdych against Roger Federer, and Tommy Robredo against Andy Roddick. Robredo is actually getting pretty good odds (5:1 on Betfair), but I really don't think he's going to do much against Roddick, who has never lost to Robredo. Similarly, Berdych is going to have to play at a level that he's never played before in order to beat Federer. As for the other matches...

Cilic-Del Potro: Two big, tall young guns. These guys will probably play a lot in the next five to ten years, so this first meeting should be exciting. Cilic just beat Ferrer, but it will be very interesting to see him against Del Potro. Juan Martin has the advantage in this match, as he's more accomplished than Marin, but I imagine that this rivalry-to-be will get closer down the line.

Djokovic-Baghdatis: The sense is that this is the most likely upset of the top four players in this round. It's certainly possible, but Baghdatis is going to have to play the way he played two years ago. Djokovic hasn't been at his best this tournament, so it's possible. But I see Djoko coming through this.

Blake-Tsonga: Oh my goodness. This is going to be great. Both of these guys are incredibly exciting shotmakers and tons of fun to watch. Tsonga says his back is in good shape, but Blake has been playing very well this tournament, too. I like JW in this one, but James could come through if he plays solid throughout. He's prone to dips, and that could be his downfall.

Monfils-Simon: Another potentially stunning match from two up-and-coming French players. Monfils is a lot more fun to watch than Simon, but Gilles has had better results last year. Regardless of who wins, they both beat Nadal the last time they played him, and he's their likely next opponent, unless Gonzalez makes the enormous upset.

Basically, any of these matches could go either way without surprising me too much, with the exception of Roddick and Federer. It would take a meltdown from either of those guys to lose those matches. The nice thing is that no matter what happens, basically any set of quarterfinals should be exciting, too.

Australian Open underway

I don't know if you've been able to watch any of the Australian Open thus far, but if you haven't ... then you haven't missed much. It's been a pretty boring tournament up to this point, in my opinion. All of the favorites are rolling without much trouble, and while there have been some very close and exciting matches (Gilles Muller beats Feliciano Lopez 16-14 in the fifth set!) they were between people who aren't really going to make it that far into the tournament.

And the only upsets of consequence were of Venus Williams and David Nalbandian, who apparently did not do too much training in the off-season. The announcers jokingly referred to him as a "teletubby" because of his paunch. Another interesting one was Fabrice Santoro (the magician!) over Phillip Kohlschreiber in the fifth set. And for his victory, Santoro gets to play Andy Roddick, who demolished him last year at the U.S. Open. Much better for Andy than Kohlschreiber, who beat Roddick a year ago in the third round! Andy now has a clear route to the quarterfinals against Djokovic, and it will an incredible disappointment if he loses before then.

Today is the first day of the third round, and we're starting to get some potentially interesting match-ups:

Safin-Federer: If Safin plays out of his mind, we could have one set of tennis that looks like 2005, but don't expect much more than that from the Russian who is playing his last year on tour, or so he says.

Cilic-Ferrer: The young Cilic is a tough competitor on the rise, and Ferrer has had some trouble with young guns lately. He lost recently to Sam Querrey and at last year's U.S. Open to Kei Nishikori of Japan. It depends on how much Cilic steps up, because you can bet Ferrer will be solid.

Muller-Del Potro: Gilles Muller has no right to be ranked so low, with his ability to pull off astounding wins every now and then. As I said, he won a 16-14 in the fifth first round match against Feliciano Lopez, and he has a tendency to win that way, after winning about four matches at the U.S. Open last year in five. I think Del Potro is just too big of a hitter for Muller, but he's pulled the upset before.

Fish-Baghdatis: Baghdatis is making good, with some solid wins over Soderling and Benneteau, while Fish's opponents haven't been of as much consequence. Still, these are both guys who are dangerous to go deep, once they get a match or two under their bet. This one could be a cracker.

Dudi Sela-J.W. Tsonga: After Tsonga toughed out a really good win over Ivan Ljubicic, he's rewarded with what should be an easy match on paper. The little Israeli did manage an upset of 30th seed Rainer Schuettler and Hanescu, but he also played his way through qualifying. If Tsonga's having some back trouble (not unlikely) then Sela could make this close.

Blake-Andreev: This is Blake's first real match of the tournament, after getting two no-names in the first two rounds. He played really well in his first two rounds, but he didn't hit much resistance. Andreev can be streaky, but he can play with the best players on his best days.

Stepanek-Verdasco: Radek "the Worm" Stepanek is on a good streak, but Fernando Verdasco has one of the best forehands in the game. To me, this is almost a toss-up.

Gilles Simon-"Super" Mario Ancic: Ancic beat big-serving "Dr." Ivo Karlovic in the 2nd round, and he gets rewarded with eighth seed Gilles Simon, who historically does not fare very well at the slams, but after the run he made in the second half of last year, I'd be shocked if he doesn't make a deep run at some point. I think Ancic's career has been unfortunate so far, with a lot of underachieving (at least in terms of tennis play, he got his law degree while he was out with illness) so his ranking should go up this year.

Monfils-Almagro: Almagro is a solid player who doesn't have the big wins in his career, while Monfils is streaky and occasionally thrilling. Will the Frenchman's talent and flashy play be enough to disarm the Spaniard? I bet so, but we'll see.

Gasquet-Gonzalez: This is a great one. Gasquet has also underachieved, so he may need to start proving himself, as he's now the #3 French player in the world. Gonzalez beat Hewitt and Canas, two baseline-running counterpunchers who aren't as mobile as they used to be. It will be quite a change to go up against the unevenly-brilliant shotmaker Gasquet. And the winner of this one gets Nadal.

Nadal is playing Tommy Haas, which should be closer than his first two matches, but I don't give him much of a chance. And Djokovic is playing Amer Delic, which is only going to be interesting because Delic grew up in Croatia, and there could be trouble when the Serbian and Croatian fans get together.

This is just the third round? Things are looking good, from this point on.