Australian Open Predictions

The 2010 Australian Open starts in just six hours. As I've indicated previously, there are any number of great storylines to keep an eye on at this tournament. But the greatest part about the tournament actually happening is that we don't know the way that it's going to play out. With 128 players in the draw, the number of possible outcomes for the way it will unfold is almost unimaginably vast (technically, 3.4 * 10^38), but there are some things I can say with utmost certainty.

The majority of the favorites will move through the draw as expected, but there will be a handful of surprising upsets. There will be several spectacular matches between players of comparable skill performing at their highest levels, but there will be more matches where the winner is never in doubt and one player is simply outclassed by another. Some matches will fail to live up to their billing due to mental fatigue or physical injury in one or both players. Some of the best matches of the tournament will be ones that no one expected to turn into classics, and some of the duds will be the ones that showed the most potential.

Top players will face challenged from unexpected, lower-tier opponents who manage to play the matches of their lives. At least one mid-to-lower-level player will make a statement that he or she is aiming to rise to the next level of the game. More than one top player will not inevitably not make it as far as they are seeded to go. Even though the Australian Open is famous for getting unexpected players into the final, the players who make it to the last four on both sides will all be recognizable. Even if there are first-time semifinalists, they will be players who have been touted as having that capability.

I hope that there are a couple of matches this year that reach the levels of Nadal-Verdaso or Gasquet-Gonzalez from last year, or Federer-Tipsarevic or Baghdatis-Hewitt from the year before. It would be magnificent to have a match like Roddick-El Aynoui from way back in 2002, but not every grand slam tournament has a match for the ages during its fortnight.

I hope that not too many players are troubled by injury or fatigue, but this is always a tough slam, so I think it's likely that there will be at least eight retirements in the first two rounds of the men's and women's draws. I hope that there aren't any after the fourth round.

I hope that the final lives up to its billing. We were spoiled last year with three of the four men's grand slam finals going to five sets. The last Australian Open final to go to five was Mats Wilander and Pat Cash in 1988. It doesn't happen very often when the decisive match of the tournament is also its best, but it's wonderful when it does. Whether the final is made up of established big names, first-timers, or one of each, I just hope it's a good match.

That's what I hope for the whole tournament, really. I have my own preferences about who would win, but I'd rather just watch high-level tennis, regardless of who's playing.