Indian Wells Wrap-up

The stream of upsets that was going on all week in Indian Wells continued on finals day. Both the men's and women's finals ended in upsets, with two former top players who everybody had written-off as not having any real chance lately upsetting two players who were really supposed to get back to the top, now that their top competition was gone.

The women's final ended as Jelena Jankovic, the last big thing, beat the next big thing, Caroline Wozniacki. Jankovic hadn't won a big title in quite some time and hadn't been playing that great, so this was a surprising run for her. On the other hand, everyone expected Wozniacki to win this tournament, after the other top contenders dropped in early rounds. Well done for Jankovic, who may be ready for a return to form. The upset on the men's side was even more surprising, though.

Ivan Ljubicic, in his fourth appearance in a Master's series final, won his first title. He beat Andy Roddick, who had a cupcake draw to get to the final, while the Croatian had to beat Djokovic and Nadal to make it there. In a happy birthday to the recently-turned 31-year old, Ljubicic played great, and while he may have been just ever-so-slightly outplayed by Roddick from the ground throughout much of the match, it didn't matter when it came down to tiebreaks, and the match did. Roddick went down 0-40 in his first service game, but didn't face a break point for the rest of the match. Ljubicic faced 3 break points in the first set and 3 in the second, but it didn't matter. Nobody could convert.

During the tiebreaks, Roddick made a few more mistakes and couldn't serve as solidly as Ljubicic. While the American was leading the tour in tiebreakers won coming in to this tournament, he couldn't win either in the final, and Ljubicic went home with his maiden master's series title. Credit to the Croatian, who did something that absolutely no one gave him a chance to do at this point in his career. Literally, I don't see a single draw out of 17,000 on the ATP World Draw Challenge Circuit that picked Ljubicic to win it all.

But on the other hand, it's really a missed opportunity for Roddick, who may win another Master's Series shield in his career, but he will never get an easier chance than this one. His draw broke in every way he could have preferred, but he still couldn't seal the deal. I hope that the American closely examines the match to see if he was happy with his game. I'm not sure if he could have played differently in terms of strategy - it was just in the execution. He was out-aced by Ljubicic and basically outplayed in both tiebreaks. He may have just been tight, while the elder Croat could swing freely.

In any case, it'll be interesting to see how both do this coming week in Miami. The draw's out now, and I'll do an analysis tomorrow.

Indian Wells Final

Two upsets in the men's semifinals today! In fact, all four matches that were played today ended in upsets.

In the women's doubles final, Peschke and Srebotnik defeated the last seeds remaining, as they beat Petrova and Stosur in a match tiebreak. Good win for the Russian (I believe) pair, since I'm sure that nobody picked them to be holding the trophy today.

In the men's doubles final, another unseeded pair beat the last seeds still standing, but it was even more surprising. A wildcard team beat top seeds and top-ranked Nestor and Zimonjic. But of course, that can happen when half of that team is Rafael Nadal. And especially when Nadal is frustrated from just losing in the semifinals a few hours before. It's some comfort to take home the doubles title, at least, but I'm sure he would have rather defended his singles title.

Instead, he was beat in three sets by Ivan Ljubicic. Nadal looked to be in control, up a set and not giving Ljubicic a chance. At that point, he dropped serve out of nowhere and the Croat took advantage, winning the second set. The third set went to a tiebreak, eventually, even though Nadal had to claw his way back from a break down. The tiebreak was all Ljubicic, though, and the tall, big-serving former world-number three is into the final, after just celebrating his 31st birthday yesterday. A great week for him, but he has played some tough players when they were not at their best - wins over Djokovic and Nadal are always to be treasured, but particularly today, he didn't win thanks to his stellar play alone.

Of course, his opponent in the final, which turned out to be Andy Roddick, had an even easier road. He didn't really play anyone of consequence until the semis, where he faced a red-hot Robin Soderling. This was also not the greatest match, with neither player seemingly able to take the initiative. Roddick was up a set and a break before he gave it back, and he was up a break in the third set early on before giving it back again. It looked like Soderling couldn't lose the match if he tried, until he was broken once more and Roddick served it out. Third time's a charm, huh?

Roddick will face Ljubicic, and this really caps a week where everything that could have broken his way did so. Any opponent who looked like they might trouble him was taken out of commission by another, less threatening opponent. Soderling was the only opponent that Roddick has been generally troubled with in the past, and he did't show up with his best stuff. Roddick now takes a 7-3 advantage against Ljubicic into the final, as well as 4-3 record in MS finals compared to Ljube's 0-3.

Really, Roddick is never going to get a chance this good to win a Master's Series title ever again. It is basically a statistical impossibility. So many things have gone the way Roddick would have had them go, that if he doesn't win tomorrow, then there are no more Master's Series shields in the future for him. But if he does win tomorrow, this could be a good dose of momentum.

Every stat for this final is in Roddick's favor. The head-to-head, the record in finals, the performance so far this year, and this is not to mention the intangibles. As an American - the lone American at the top tier of the game - he will have the crowd's support against a relatively unknown and not particularly charismatic Ljubicic. If Roddick was playing Nadal, the Spaniard may have just as many - if not more - fans, but the Croatian contingent is going to be tough to make out in the crowd of red, white, and blue.

Indian Wells Semifinals

With the Indian Wells semis set, there was only one really noteworthy result to speak in the quarterfinals. Robin Soderling absolutely blitzed Andy Murray. In a match that everyone expected would be either a cakewalk for Murray or a tight win for the Swede, Soderling nearly got away with hardly any effort at all, and still managed a victory without too much trouble.

In his first service game, Soderling faced three four points. However, after managing to save all of those, he went on to demolish Murray in the first set, allowing him only one game. Murray barely won a point on Soderling's serve after that. The second set looked to be going the same way, with Soderling up a break and given three break chances - match points - with Murray serving at 3-5. The Scot somehow saved them all and seemed rejuvenated, as he broke Soderling while he was serving for the match and brought it to a tiebreak. However, just when it looked like the momentum was about to turn, Soderling recovered from a momentary lapse and took the tiebreak 7-4.

So now the semis are set. Nadal, who is impressing with his performance here, has a nearly sure win against Ivan Ljubicic, who has played well this week, but hasn't faced terribly strong opposition. Nadal, on the other hand, has beaten a bevy of good players, and considering that he was questionable with his knee injury, his run towards defending his title is nothing short of spectacular. He hasn't won a title in ten months, and to come back at a Masters Event would be superb.

Soderling gets Andy Roddick in the semis, who brushed aside Robredo as easily as he usually does. It seems that everything is breaking well for the American, whose tougher opponents (according to the draw) stumbled at various stage and set up much easier matches to get him back to the semis, here. But he'll have his first real test against Soderling, who has never lost to Roddick in their two meetings. Roddick has never made a final in Indian Wells, and he probably won't get a better shot than this for the rest of his career. But he'll need to play much more aggressively than Murray did today, and he can hope that Soderling doesn't serve at his best.

For the other matches to look forward to, Caroline Wozniacki will face Jelena Jankovic for the women's final, which is a chance for the Serb to get back on track at a fairly major tournament. Tough to bet against Wozniacki, though.

The doubles final also has Rafael Nadal in it, which just hows how spectacularly he's playing this week. He'll face the top seeds, Nestor and Zimonjic, with his parter Marc Lopez.

Indian Wells Tuesday - Stunning Upset!

As the action draws to a close today, we finish what was a day of not all that thrilling tennis, up until the last match. First, a look at the other action around the grounds. Most of the seeded players cruised today. Roddick, Soderling, Murray, and Robredo all made it through without dropping a set. Only Soderling even went to a tiebreak. Tsonga lost a set on route to victory, but it was only a momentary lapse, and Montanes did not really have his teeth in the second and third sets.

The second-last match of the night, between James Blake and Nicolas Almagro, was a tight one, but was marred by some admittedly questionable calls at key moments, and subsequently more frustration than is necessary from Blake. He was playing well, but Almagro was serving bombs and smacking winners off both sides. Usually, Almagro can't keep that up for an entire match, but he was on tonight. It's no shame that James lost, and hopefully he'll be encouraged by the strength of his player this week.

The following match had all of the intensity and none of the controversy, as well as a much more marquee match-up. Twenty-seventh seed Marcos Baghdatis was facing Roger Federer in a rematch of the pair's Australian Open final from 2007. They had faced each other five other times, and Baghdatis was 2-15 in sets against the mighty Fed. When Federer won the first set 7-5 tonight, it looked like it would be more of the same. But Baghdatis fought back. Even though he was down by several match points, he brought the match to a third-set tiebreak and won with a single minibreak, 7-4. It's really a famous victory for the Cypriot, who is playing like he was when he made the top ten. There's no reason he can't find his way back there, if he can keep up this level of play.

As Cara Black and Liezel Huber also lost today, that means that the only top seeds left in the tournament are Nestor and Zimonjic in the men's doubles. This really is an odd tournament, in terms of favorites dropping like flies. Today, the women's side was relatively quiet, with the only upset between Maria Martinez-Sanchez and Yanina Wickmayer, which isn't a huge upset by any means. And Suarez-Navarro and Kleybanova are still on-court, so who knows what will happen there. So far, there have been six breaks in seven games, so Suarez-Navarro is up a hold.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the two halves of the tournament come together. Baghdatis is really at a disadvantage, having had to play so late and then come back tomorrow. Fortunately, he'll be last on Court 2 to play Tommy Robredo, but just based on health, it's going to be a tough ask for the Cypriot to follow up that win.

Also on court 2, Guillermo-Garcia Lopez plays Juan Monaco, which is not quite the match-up that you'd expect this deep into a hardcourt Masters series event. Good for both of these guys for making it this far, though. Unfortunately, they don't have much interest here in the states, so they're up first. Look for that match to be poorly-attended. Next up, Ivan Ljubicic faces Novak Djokovic, and if Djokovic decides to leave the court for a set again this match, expect the veteran Ljubicic to take advantage, unlike Kohlschreiber in the last round. There might be another upset here, depending on whether or not Djokovic shows up. Finally on court 2, Viktor Troicki will play his second game of the tournament against Tomaz Berdych. I'll admit that I don't give Troicki much of a shot here, particularly with how well Berdych played against Verdasco.

On center court, there are some real crackerjack matches. John Isner is playing Rafael Nadal, and though Nadal's knees have not seemed to be troubling him thus far this tournament, the big-hitting giant will give them their sternest test yet. After that, Tsonga and Soderling are playing in the earliest meeting of top ten players in this tournament. Both are playing great, but Soderling has a 2-0 advantage. Tsonga sometimes doesn't handle playing against big servers that well, which is strange since he's one of the best servers on tour. Soderling may have the advantage, but this should be close.

In the night session, both Andys are in action, but not against each other. Andy Roddick faces Austrian Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, who got a walkover from Simon Gruel. Roddick's last opponent had gotten a retirement as well, and it didn't seem to do him much good. But Melzer is a tougher opponent, even though Roddick is 9-0 against him. As Bagdhatis showed today, a dominating head-to-head does not mean a dominating victory. The last match of the day features Andy Murray against Nicolas Almagro. Now Almagro is exactly the type of heavy-hitter who can trouble Murray, and if the Spaniard plays (and particularly serves) as well as he did against Blake, then Murray could be in trouble. But Murray can have a way of blunting those players' power, and getting them off their game enough to start missing. Look for him to do that tomorrow.

One final little NB - Isner and Querrey are playing Karlovic and Vemic in doubles tomorrow. The two biggest players on the tour on opposite sides of the net again.

Really, the latter stages of the tournament begins tomorrow in earnest. I'm anxious to see if the trend of upsets continues.

Noteworthy upsets and withdrawals plus Aussie Open quallies!

The second week of the season has featured a few surprising upsets and not-so-surprising withdrawals, but I'd imagine the tournament organizers were none too happy to see these players out of their tournaments before Wednesday.

Nalbandian withdrew from Auckland before playing his match against Kohlschreiber, which I think puts the Argentine in doubt for the Australian Open, since this would have been his only tune-up event. Gael Monfils also withdrew from Sydney, which is not so much of a surprise, considering how heavily he was taped last week in Brisbane. Vera Zvonerava also stopped her match against Elena Vesnina after only six games with an ankle injury. This is on top of Justine Henin and Roger Federer withdrawing from their events, earlier in the week.

In Sydney, Evgeny Korolev beat Sam Querrey in the first round, which will mean that the recently-injured American will be 0-2 going into the first grand slam of the year, which is certainly not the way he would have wanted to start out his year, I'm sure. The Bryan Brothers also lost to first time doubles pairing Wassen and Zeballos, which was definitely a shock. On the women's side, Dominika Cibulkova beat third-seeded (and ranked) Svetlana Kuznetsova, Aggi Szavay beat Jelena Jankovic, and Na Li beat fourth-seed Caroline Wozniacki, so the upset bug is all over.

It just goes to show that some of the top players have trouble finding their form at the very start of the season, which is why the Australian Open often has the most surprising winners and finalists of any of the grand slams.

With all these upsets and withdrawals, some players are getting an easy route through their tournaments. Serena Williams can't face another seed until the final, for example. Others are not so lucky. The bottom quarterfinal of the women's draw in Sydney will feature Elena Dementieva against Dinara Safina, which has the potential to be an exciting match, or at least a good bellwether of how these two players' years are starting.

In Kooyong, the organizers were apparently unable to woo either of the Andys into playing the full three days, so they ended up replacing Roger Federer with Ivan Ljubicic, who is a fine player, but probably not what they had hoped for this year. So the Kooyong matchups are Djokovic-Haas, Fernando-Fernando, Soderling-Tsonga, and Ljubicic-Del Potro. It will be interesting to see who out of that group of top players has started the year on form.

Looking to the Aussie Open qualifying draw, there are some very interesting first-round matches. The quallies are incredibly important to the players in them, because getting a few rounds in a grand slam is the best way to rack up a chunk of points for the following year, but you have to win these mini-tournaments to have a chance. Here's my list of significant match-ups:

Xavier Malisse-Alex Kuznetsov, Marc Lopez-Donald Young, Josselin Ouanna-Joseph Sirianni, Yuki Bhambri-Jan Minar, Ryler DeHeart-Stefan Koubek, Grigor Dimitrov-Robert Kendrick, and Peter Polansky-Marcel Ilhan. Sixteen out of these 128 players will get into the main draw, which is a tough cut. There are a ton of up-and-coming players here, as well as more establish challenger pros who are knocking at the door of the top 100. It should be fun to see who makes it through.