Week 20 Wrap-up and French Open Preview

The wrap-up will be quick, because I have a lot to say about the French Open. First of all, congratulations to Argentina for beating America in the Dusseldorf team tournament. I'm still not sure about the format - why was Robbie Ginepri playing to keep the U.S. alive, rather than John Isner? Oh well. It should be good practice for the Americans, heading into the French Open, and a nice confidence boost for the Argentines.

In Nice, Richard Gasquet won the inaugural tournament, in an exciting final match against Fernando Verdasco. The Spaniard served for the championship, but was broken, and then Gasquet took the tournament in a tiebreak. Well done - it's been a long road for Gasquet, who had not won a tournament since 2007. Will he be able to build on this win? We'll have to wait and see. Anyway, on to the French Open. There's no doubt that it's an exciting draw. As per usual, I'll go quarter by quarter.

First of all, Roger Federer's quarter. If Rog makes it out of this quarter, he breaks the record for most weeks at number one. Will he be able to do it? Well, he could have definitely asked for a smoother route to that record, but it's hard for me to see him losing before the semis. He opens against Australian vet Peter Luczak, who shouldn't give him any trouble. After that, he might face Janko Tipsarevic, who pushed Federer hard a couple years ago at the Aussie Open, but he probably won't be able to upset Federer on clay. After that, it's probably either Olivier Rochus or Feliciano Lopez. Both solid players, but Federer is 7-0 against each of them. Things get a little more interesting in the next couple of rounds. It's likely that Fed's fourth round opponent will be either Stan Wawrinka or Gael Monfils. Two solid clay-courters, but neither has been playing at their top level this year, especially in big matches. I don't think there are a lot of floaters in that 1/8th of the draw. The bottom half of Fed's quarter is a different story.

Soderling is the top seed here, and he's going to have a hell of a time equalling his run to the finals from last year. As if beating Nadal on the terre battue wasn't hard enough. The Swede should be able to make it through a couple rounds, but he could find himself facing Albert Montanes in the third, followed by either Marin Cilic, Leonardo Mayer, or Ernests Gulbis in the fourth. I would not be shocked if any of those five players made it to the quarters to face Federer. But who could beat him there? Whichever player made it that far would have to play the best match of his life. I see Fed making it into the semis. Gulbis is the closest thing this quarter has to a dark horse - and he has the best opening round match, too, against Frenchman Julien Benneteau.

The second quarter is probably the most wide open, overall. It should be Andy Murray's quarter, but after going 6-1 in his first tournament of the year, he's gone 7-6 since then. That's not going to give him a lot of confidence, and he starts off against an inspired Richard Gasquet. Murray is in danger of losing that match, honestly. He lost to JW Tsonga in the first round at the Aussie Open when Tsonga made his run to the final. It's possible for something similar to happen here. And whoever wins that match has a good chance of going deep, because that 1/8th of the draw is stacked with people who are not that comfortable on red clay.

The first seed that Murray/Gasquet could meet is Marcos Baghdatis, and then it's either Tomas Berdych or John Isner. All great hardcourt players, but their big-hitting strategies are tougher to employ effectively on the slow clay. The possible dark horses here are Marco Chiudinelli, who hasn't been able to play as well this year as he did at the end of 2009, and possibly Juan Ignacio Chela. He could sneak through if the winner of the Murray/Gasquet match is worn out.

The bottom 1/8th of this draw is much tougher, with more capable dirtballers in action. Tommy Robredo opens against Viktor Troick in one of the best opening round match-ups. Mikhail Youzhny is also here, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and JW Tsonga. The Frenchman could face a player who made some noise here last year, Josselin Ouanna, in the second round. Unfortunately for him, Ouanna plays just like Tsonga, except not as well. Also, keep an eye out for Thiemo De Bakker in this section of the draw. Like I said, this is a very open quarter, but I think it'll be the winner of Murray/Gasquet against Tsonga for a place in the semis. And Murray/Gasquet will probably take it.

The third quarter is also pretty open. The top two seeds - Novak Djokovic and Andy Roddick - are big question marks, because of their recent health. Roddick hasn't played a match on clay yet this year, and he does not have an easy road ahead of him. He opens against Jarkko Nieminen, and then could get two Argentines in the second and third rounds: Eduardo Schwank and Juan Monaco. And if he manages to get through all that, the American will almost certainly get David Ferrer in the fourth round. It's tough to see Roddick making it through that gauntlet of clay-court specialists. Unless Xavier Malisse, Dudi Sela, or Jurgen Melzer pulls off a shocking upset, I see Ferrer through to the quarters.

Djokovic's progress depends much more on his fitness. After starting the year off strong, he's gone 8-5 since his Davis Cup win over the U.S. Before that, he was 13-2 to start the year. And that includes retiring during his own tournament and pulling out of the last clay Master's. He hasn't played since. He'll likely get Kei Nishikori in his second round match, and the Japanese player is pretty hot coming off injury. That could be a tough match. And then, probably Victor Hanescu, who is a solid clay-courter. And after that, Djokovic could get either former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero (most likely) or perhaps Sam Querrey. Those would be tough matches for an exhausted Djoker. I think that a Ferrer-Ferrero quarterfinal is not unlikely here, with Ferrer probably coming out on top.

The last quarter of the draw is all Nadal, all the time. The most unfortunate opening round is Nadal against French wildcard Gianni Mina. It's a lot like Federer against Devin Britton at last year's US Open. It'll be a massacre. After that, he'll probably get Horacio Zeballos, a talented player who will have a good career on play. But he's no match for Nadal. And then Hewitt, in all likelihood. Again, no trouble there. I expect that Nadal will get Tomaz Bellucci in the fourth round, but he could also get Ivan Ljubicic or Mardy Fish. It won't matter. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent might be a Fernando - Verdasco or Gonzalez - or Nicolas Almagro. But he'll be through to the semis, no matter what.

I see semis with Federer and a relative surprise, as well as Nadal and another surprise. I don't expect Murray or Djokovic to live up to their seeding. I also expect it to be another Nadal-Federer final, and for Nadal to win. Nadal will reclaim his title, but Federer will get the record for number one.

I've got a lot ot say about the men, but I don't really know what's going to happen on the women's side. It seems like nobody is playing well. Serena Williams and Justine Henin are in thesame quarter, along with Bartoli, Sharapova, and Sam Stosur. That's a tough quarter. The next one has Jelena Jankovic, Yanina Wickmayer, and Dinar Safina, not to mention Aggie Radwanska. In all honesty, I have no idea who's going to make it through. You have to pick Serena or Justine, but it's a tough call.

The other half of the draw is even more up in the air. Wozniacki has a foot injury. Kuznetsova has been on a brutal bad run of form. Maria Kirilenko and Nadia Petrova are here, as are Dementieva, Azarenka, and Venus. Not to mention unseeded Carla Suarez Navarro, but I have no idea who's going to make it to the final. I'll revise my look at the women's game once we're through a few rounds, but for now, it's just impossible to tell. I'm anxious to see what happens, though!