Monte Carlo Preview and Week 14 Review

With the preview week for the clay court season completed, things are about to get underway in earnest. Well, sort of. First of all, the results.

Sam Querrey ended the potential for a disaster to get any worse by beating Wayne Odesnik, but then he continued his poor performance in finals and lost to Juan Ignacio Chela. In his defense, clay has to be considered Querrey's worst surface, at least according to the way he plays, and it's also Chela's best. Still, Querrey's game really got loose in the final game of the last two sets, which is a shame, because he played well - for the most part. To be a really elite player, though, Sam's going to need to be more focused in finals. Credit to Chela, for winning his first title in three years.

In Casablanca, there was another winner who hadn't won a title in quite a few years. Stan Wawrinka had gone 0-5 since 2006, including a runner-up earlier this year to Marin Cilic. He beat Victor Hanescu to claim the second title of his career. It's surprising to me that Wawrinka can't put a strong week of tennis together more often. He's really a force when he's playing his best. We'll see if he can build off this victory for the rest of the claycourt season, where he generally does well.

Looking ahead to Monte Carlo, there's really only one question: can Rafael Nadal continue his dominance on this surface for another year? He is 29-1 at this event, winning it the last five years, a record which is just unbelievable. Amazingly, there is another multiple titlist in the field, as Juan Carlos Ferrero won here in 2002 and 2003. Everyone else who's won this tournament is out of tennis, if you can believe that.

Nadal's road to another title won't be easy, but he could have gotten a tougher draw. After his first-round bye, he'll get likely get young gun Thiemo De Bakker, who has been anxious for this part of the season to come along, I imagine. But he probably wasn't hoping his second match at the first Masters event on his favorite surface would be against Rafael Nadal. Beyond that, Nadal could face Juan Monaco or Jarkko Nieminen, and then either Tsonga or Ferrero. It's a shame, but it's not unlikely that we'll see the two titlists playing each other in the quarters.

The field at this event is not as strong as it might be, as a number of top players are out injured, and several others are taking their free "skip a Masters event" card at this event. Only five of the top ten players are in attendance, so the top seed at this event is Novak Djokovic. He'll have to get through a pretty tough quarter in his own right. The final between Hanescu and Wawrinka gets repeated as a first-round match here, which is a bit unusual. Another first-round match to watch here is Gulbis-Chiudinelli. Djokovic's quarter also has Robredo facing off against a potentially dangerous Horacio Zeballos, as well Nalbandian and Youzhny in the mix.

Murray's quarter is arguably the weakest, but these smaller Masters events are pretty stacked. He'll open against either Bellucci or Kohlschreiber, and he'll need to up his level to beat either of those guys on red clay. After that, he may get Melzer, and is likely to find David Ferrer waiting for him in the quarters. I don't expect to see Ljubicic make it out of this quarter, but he's been a surprising figure as of late. This is the quarter that's most likely to have a shock contender make it out of, I'd expect.

The last quarter, featuring fourth-seed Marin Cilic, has some big hitters scattered in it as well. Cilic opens against Andreev, who loves the way the clay slows down theb all and lets him really get around and rip his forehand. He'll then face either Seppi, Montanes, or Baghdatis, all tough players. The bottom section of that quarter will likely see Gasquet, Verdasco, or Berdych come out of it. Cilic's career record on clay is only 22-21, so he can make some headway this season. For comparison, though, Murray is only 20-18. They need to really play up to their seeding at this tournament.

We'll see if order will be restored this week, or whether the run of incredible upsets is going to continue as we've seen in the first two Masters Series of the year. The smart money is on Nadal, as in fact, the odds are better for Nadal winning than any of the other players in the draw. But things have not been quite as promising in Nadal's game as they have been in years past, so we'll see if he can play at his usual level.