Rome Third Round

We're on to the round of 16 in Rome, with the major players making it through without too much difficulty. There were a few upsets today, though nothing compared to yesterday's defeat of Roger Federer by Ernests Gulbis. Really, nothing could have, except for possibly Nadal losing to Kohlschreiber. Nadal breezed through against the German, dropping four games and a mere nine points total through eight service games. Not much to report, there.

The best match of the day - or at least the tightest - may have been between Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka. The Swiss #2 managed to eke a tough win in a third set tiebreak, 8-6. But Wawrinka is a former top ten player and an accomplished clay courter, so this was always going to be tight. It isn't Berdych's best surface, either. The other two seeds who fell today were also tall guys - Marin Cilic looked to be cruising against Feliciano Lopez, only to lose the second set in a tiebreak and the third 6-4. Really, Cilic had not business losing that match, as Lopez may be the Spaniard with the least game on clay. On the other hand, John Isner was almost expected to lose against Brazilian Tomaz Bellucci, and that may have hurt me in the pressure moments of his 7-6, 7-5 loss. While he wasn't seeded, Lleyton Hewitt certainly hoped to put up a better performance than a 2 and 3 loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez after he had worked so hard to upset Mikhail Youzhny in the first round.

Despite the loss of a few of the top players, things are looking very interesting from here on out. Federer's departure is the most surprising, and his section of the draw is now pretty much bare. As Cilic and Querrey have already lost, the lone seed left in that quarter is Ivan Ljubicic. He should beat Feliciano Lopez tomorrow on the second court, while Ernest Gulbis plays on center. He was on the main stage on Monday because he was facing the number one player in the world, but he'll be there tomorrow because he's up against the last Italian player in the draw, Filippo Vilandri. Gulbis really ought to win that match, but it wouldn't be impossible for him to be hungover after the biggest win of his career.

Nadal faces Victor Hanescu in tomorrow's night match, and that should be an easy match for the Spaniard. He'll have to be ready for the quartefinals, though, because he'll face either Robin Soderling, who bested him last year at the French, or Stanislas Wawrinka. That's one of tomorrow's best matches, and definitely the best one taking place on the second court. They have a 1-1 head to head, and I think this match is almost a pick-em.

Verdasco and Tsonga are each up tomorrow against a couple of untested clay court specialists, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Santiago Giraldo. I expect both of them to come through. Their potential quarterfinal opponents, though, have tougher tasks ahead of them.

Andy Murray, who would face Tsonga if both win, has to be excited about getting his first win here in Rome. His losses in the last four tournaments he's played have been so discouraging that he'll take any momentum he could get. However, I'll wager he wishes he could have another match under his belt before he had to take on David Ferrer, who is his opponent tomorrow. On a normal day and on any other surface, I'd give Murray the edge. But considering how poorly he's been playing and how comfortable Ferrer is on clay, this is a tough ask for the Scotsman tomorrow. Novak Djokovic, in the bottom section of the draw, faces Tomaz Bellucci, who doesn't have the proven results of Ferrer, but is still a solid young clay court player. I think that Bellucci has about as much chance of staging an upset as Gulbis did against Federer. He'll need a little help, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Looking ahead, I think that Gulbis should be disappointed if he doesn't make the semis, here. He's won the toughest match he could have expected, and he won't face any comparable resistance until that stage. Even if he faces Ljubicic in the quarters, he should be able to take that match. He'll likely find Nadal there, who must be hoping for Soderling to beat Wawrinka so he get some revenge. The other half of the draw is much more interesting, with a lot more riding on the matches that Murray and Djokovic play tomorrow. But I wouldn't be too surprised to see any of six of the remaining eight players make their way to the final. Sorry Giraldo and Garcia-Lopez.