Barcelona Wrap-up and Rome Preview

The Barcelona final has completed, and despite Nadal's withdrawal at the beginning of the week, a Spaniard still managed to win the title. Fernando Verdasco played solid clay-court tennis to upset last year's French Open finalist Robin Soderling. Soderling just couldn't quite find his range on his groundstrokes for an extended period of time, and Verdasco's movement was sufficiently better than the Swede's that he didn't have many other options. Kudos to Verdasco, who has been quietly putting together an excellent year. And to Soderling, who has made his third career clay-court final, and even though he couldn't seal the deal, he showed that he is still a force to be reckoned with on any surface.

It's always tough to make it to the final only to lose when you have to play the next week, because while Verdasco can build on the momentum he may have gotten from his second title of the year, Soderling played just as much tennis and didn't come away with a title. Both of them are in the draw at Rome, as well as most of the other top players, with a few notable exceptions.

Del Potro, Davydenko, Gonzalez, Robredo, Monfils, Stepanek, and Haas are all out with injury. That's a lot of players in the top 21 who can't play. Andy Roddick is also skipping the tournament, but not because of injury, just because he's decided he doesn't have any chance of playing on clay and doesn't want to bother. He can skip out on the fine he would normally receive because of his veteran status on the tour, but he can't get any more ranking points, and he is still going to get a big fat zero for this tournament, since it's going to count as one of the eight required Masters Series events, whether he plays it or not. And since he just dropped to number eight in the world after Soderling came in second at Barcelona, it is not unreasonable to consider the possibility of a top ten with no Americans as the hard court swing begins after Wimbledon.

In any case, we'll see what happens on that front as the year progresses. This week in Rome, the top players who are not hobbled are all there. Roger Federer is, of course, the top seed. He's still on a quest for his second tournament victory of the year, after his Australian Open title earlier in the year. He'll open up against the winner of one of the most enticing first-round match-ups, between a pair of hot-and-cold players: Baghdatis and Gulbis. Baghdatis beat Federer earlier in the year, so it would be interesting to see a rematch. After that, he may get Sam Querrey, if the American survives to the third round. In the quartefinals, Federer is likely to face either Cilic, Ljubicic, or Nicolas Almagro. I don't see any of these players upsetting the Fed, but I would have said that about everyone who's beaten him since January this year. So we'll just see what kind of form he brings to his first clay-court tournament of the year.

Nadal is the third seed here, and he ended up in Federer's half of the draw. That means it's possible that we'll have the first Nadal-Federer matchup outside of a final in a regular tournament (end of year tourney doesn't count) since Roland Garros in 2005. To do that, Rafael Nadal will have a handful of challenging players to make his way through. Kohlschreiber, Monaco, and Soderling are the likeliest candidates. But if he plays the way he played in Monte Carlo, none of these players poses a real threat. The other potential opponents he might find - Berdych, Wawrinka, Andreev, Hanescu, Melzer - are all fine players, but none of them have the pedigree that they need to seriously challenge the king of clay. I really hope to see a Nadal-Soderling quarterfinal, because I bet that Nadal will want to get some revenge for his loss at the French Open last year. If Nadal is healthy and fit, he's through to the semifinals. It's as simple as that.

Since the semifinal on that half of the draw is looking like it could be Federer-Nadal, the other half of the draw seems like it could be a competition for the chance to lose in the final. Murray is the fourth seed here in Rome, despite dropping down to five in the rankings this week behind Juan Martin Del Potro, who hasn't even been playing. He's also on a three-match losing streak, which is almost unbelievable for a top five player. I would be shocked if that trend continued here, because Murray opens against Andreas Seppi, and has a three-match win streak against the Italian. Once he gets a win under his belt, he might be able to put together his first good tournament since his run to the Aussie Open final. His quarter is not the strongest, with two exceptions - Ferrer and Ferrero are there, and Murray might find one in the third round and the other in the quarters. He could also see Tsonga there, who might open against Thiemo De Bakker, who beat him last week in Barcelona. Other than that, there aren't a lot of likely contenders in Murray's section, which is hopeful for him.

The final quarter of the draw features second seed Novak Djokovic seeded to meet Barcelona champion Fernando Verdasco in the quarters, assuming the Spaniard isn't burnt out after reaching a final and winning a tournament in consecutive weeks. There's an interesting match-up here between Mikhail Youzhny and Lleyton Hewitt, who has yet to get his year going, thus far. John Isner is also in this section, the top American (of two) in the draw, and he plays Horacio Zeballos in the first round. He may get Bellucci in the second round and Djokovic in the third - it's a tough ask for the big American, but at least he's not getting Federer. Still, it's a longshot to think that a US player can make a deep run here.

The clay court season has been relatively straightforward, with two Spaniards, an Argentine, and a Swiss player winning the four tournaments that have taken place so far. I think it's likely that a Spaniard or Swiss player will win this tournament, too.