Week 18 Review and Madrid Preview

All three of the men's ATP finals which took place today were good matches. All three went through three tight sets, and it was a question about who was going to take the title in all three matches until the very end.

The all-American showdown in Belgrade was probably the most exciting, because Isner was actually up a set and a break, serving at 5-3 in the second set, and even had a match point on serve. You've got to give that to someone who serves as big as Isner, almost every time. But Isner cracked under the pressure, lost the second set in a tiebreak, and then lost the third set by a single break. Querrey was just a bit more solid, in the final summation.

The same could be said for the other two winners. Frederico Gil looked to be down and out, when Albert Montanes ran away with the first set and looked ready to win the second. But he snuck out a victory in the tiebreak and then broke to start the third. Gil was unable to become the first Portuguese player to win an ATP tournament, as Montanes won the third set 7-5. Shame for the hometown boy. Cilic-Youzhny was not quite as topsy-turvy. The Russian seemed to be the stronger throughout most of the match, and he came out on top in the end. Really good day of tennis.

Looking ahead to Madrid, you've got nine of the top twelve players appearing. Del Potro and Davydenko are still out with injury, while Djokovic is suffering from an illness and/or allergies. Still, it's a pretty stacked field.

Roger Federer has had an abysmal season, after his win at the Australian Open. His inability to even take the title in Estoril of all places, losing to the 31st-ranked Montanes in the semifinals. With that in mind, he has to be both anxious for a win here in Madrid, but also something of a long shot, considering his current form.

And the draw he got is not doing him any favors. After a first-round bye, he'll face either Benjamin Becker or wildcard and former French Open champion Carlos Moya. After that, it's likely that he'll get Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka, who beat him on clay last year. And no matter who his quarterfinal opponent might be, it's going to be a bear of a match. He could face Youzhny, Gulbis, Montanes, or Andy Roddick. Gulbis-Montanes is one of the great opening round matches, but to have three players in this section of the draw coming in with winning streaks, and then the hottest young player on the tour, all in the same group, could spell trouble for Roger.

The second quarter of the draw has Andy Murray as the top seed, who hasn't had a much better season, post-Aussie Open. His section of the draw is mildly less brutal, but it's still no cakewalk. He may open against Cuevas or Chela, two clay-court stalwarts, and then potentially Sam Querrey, who just bagged his first title on clay. He could also get either Igor Andreev or Victor Hanescu in the third round. And then, in the quarterfinals, he may get either Cilic or Ferrer. The outside possibilities for his quarterfinal opponent include the third Swiss player in the draw, Marco Chiudinelli, or his first-round opponent Marcos Baghdatis. That's another cracker of a match tomorrow.

Because the second, fifth, and sixth-ranked players are out of the tournament, the fourth seed here this week is Robin Soderling, who has a quarter all to himself. So far, he hasn't shown the kind of form he would need to get back to the French Open final again. His nemesis so far this year, Fernando Verdasco, is also slated to be his quarterfinal opponent. But before he even gets there, he'll have to win against either Nicolas Almagro or Viktor Troicki, and then Juan Monaco or Tomaz Bellucci. That's almost as close to a group of clay-court ringers as you could get. And the wildcard in this section of the draw is David Nalbandian, who opens against the tall Czech Tomas Berdych. That is my pick for the best first-round match, by the way. And Verdasco has to face Ivo Karlovic in his first match. Almost anyone could find their way out of his quarter.

Because of Djokovic's absence, Nadal is back to his usual place as the second seed. And not only is he the favorite to win the tournament, he's also been gifted the best draw. He'll probably open against perennial underachiever Andreas Seppi, after which he may get John Isner or Phillip Kohlschreiber. No threats so far. His quartefinal opponent is likely to be Tsonga, who he beat without too much trouble early in the year. Gael Monfils is also in that section, but he hasn't played in so long, who knows how his form will be this week.

Except for Nadal, it's tough for me to see any of the other top four seeds making it to the semifinals. So this tournament is pretty wide open, in terms of getting to face Nadal. I don't know who's going to be able to beat him. It's always a possibility, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point, unless you just like really long odds.