Even though we're through with play on Sunday, the action from week 40 is not quite finished. The final in Tokyo has concluded as one might have expected, with Nadal just too strong for Monfils, but in Beijing, rain has kept Djokovic and Ferrer from playing out their match. Djokovic is already up a break by the fourth game, though, so when play resumes on Monday, it seems like he'll have the advantage.
It wasn't the most exciting week for this pair of Asian ATP 500 events, but there were some absolutely amazing matches. Roddick-Monfils and Nadal-Troicki were two of the best, most exciting matches that I've seen for the last few months. This was a good week for Troicki, who has a fair amount of talent but hasn't really broken through with any big wins. He almost had a career-changing victory over Nadal, but he couldn't quite pull it off. He had already beaten Melzer in a third-set tiebreak in the previous round, so here's hoping he can continue playing that way and build off a very strong week, even if he did completely choke when he had the match on his racket.
The week in Beijing wasn't quite as exciting, but it was surprising to see the second, third, and fourth seeds put up weak efforts in their quarterfinal losses. Murray, Soderling, and Davydenko all failed to win a set in that round. Good show from Djokovic and Ferrer, but all of those other guys are still trying to qualify for the end-of-year championships, and the opportunities to wrap up those points are getting scarcer.
Next week in Shanghai, trying to rack up points in order to qualify for London will be the focus, for a lot of these players. It's really late in the season for only three of the eight spots to be wrapped up - Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer are all in, which isn't a shock. Murray and Soderling are in very good shape, with Berdych in a moderately safe position, while Roddick and Verdasco are currently in the 7th and 8th spots, but are in no way secure in their spots. One or both of them will probably even drop this week, as Ferrer was sitting in 9th, but getting to the final in Beijing (at least, maybe even winning) will help his chances immensely.
One of the players with a chance of qualifying for the year-end championships is already out of Shanghai, as Nicolas Almagro fell in a Sunday first-round match to Alexandr Dolgopolov - it was another third set tiebreak, which is a fine way to start off the week. I'll take a look at what other action you can expect as I usually do, going quarter by quarter.
Nadal, as the top seed and recent champion in Tokyo, isn't going to have it easy this week. He gets a bye in the first round, but then he'll have to face either Gilles Simon or Stan Wawrinka, who is playing his first ATP tournament since the U.S. Open, where he played some incredible tennis but wore himself out in the process. We'll see if he can continue his great under new coach Peter Lundgren. And after that, he'll have either Jurgen Melzer, Mardy Fish, or Denis Istomin. The other half of Nadal's quarter is not quite so loaded - Davydenko could potentiall be challenged by Sergiy Stakhovsky, but I'll be shocked if Verdasco doesn't get through de Bakker and Monaco, which will help his London push. Verdasco-Davydenko should be a good match, if both get that far, and then the winner will get Nadal (or his conqueror) in the quarters.
The second quarter belongs to Andy Murray, who has not been on a great run since he won one of the Summer hardcourt Masters titles. He'll probably open against Radek Stepanek in the second round, and then he gets either Chardy, Baghdatis, or Dolgopolov. He doesn't need to win the tournament to secure his place in London - he just needs to win a couple rounds here, and I'll be shocked if he doesn't. The bottom half of his quarter has Mikhail Youzhny, as well as Sam Querrey and Michael Berrer (which isn't a bad first-round match) but the real wildcard is JW Tsonga, back from an injury layoff, who opens against Feliciano Lopez. Murray's going to have to really slump to not come through this section, though.
The third quarter is third-seed Roger Federer's (I know, can you believe it?) and his half is pretty easy, with one potential exception. It's likely that Fed's first round match will be against John Isner, and without any match play to get used to the conditions, that could be a tough one. Isner would have to play (and serve) at his absolute max to make it a match, but it's an outside possibility. Beyond that, I don't see Seppi, Yen-Hsun Lu, or a slumping Marin Cilic giving him any trouble. The other half of his section is a a bit tougher, though. Robin Soderling is there, and he'll open against either Tipsarevic or Golubev. Ferrer beat Soderling last week, and he's in this section, but with almost no rest between tournaments, it's going to be a tough ask to play Djokovic in a final today and (in all likelihood) Llodra in a first round tomorrow, in an entirely different city.
The last quarter is Djokovic's, but he's going to be in a similar situation to Ferrer, if not quite as bad, since he has a first-round bye. He'll probably open against Ljubicic, and that could be a tricky match, but it probably won't be if you were looking at the Croat's recent form. Djoker's section has one of the best first-rounders, between Richard Gasquet and Ernests Gulbis - call it "the battle of wasted talent." The winner of that one will most likely get Monfils, and then that winner gets Djokovic. That's pretty exciting, but I think the other half of this section is even better. Roddick and Berdych are the seeds, and both are vying for places in the year-end championships. Roddick opens against Kohlschreiber, then gets a relatively easy match against either Schwank or Garcia-Lopez, and neither of them are at their best on hard-courts, but then Roddick and Berdych will face off, assuming Berdych can beat Robredo (he probably can). That will be an essential match for both of these players' end-of-year fortunes.
There was a lull after the U.S. Open, but things are starting to heat up again, and this is the most exciting end-of-year championship qualifying season that I can recall. Usually, there are only two or at most three spots left to determine at this point in the season, not five. Plenty of players with a lot to gain (and lose) in this week's action.
Showing posts with label beijing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label beijing. Show all posts
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Week 40 Quarterfinals
We're through the first two rounds in this week of dueling Asian ATP 500 tournaments, and things are just starting to heat up. Of the eight matches taking place today, six of them are ones that you wouldn't be surprised to see in a Grand Slam quarterfinal, rather than a relatively low-tier tournament such as these.
In Tokyo, the field was slightly weaker from the beginning, and that's reflected in the line-up we have in store for today. Rafael Nadal, who handled the young Canadian player Milos Raonic fairly easily yesterday - will face a much different opponent today. Dmitry Tursunov is a former top-20 player who nearly vanished from the game. He's been 1-5 on the year before this week, when he notched two very nice wins over Richard Gasquet and his own doubles partner Ernests Gulbis. He's a great personality, so I'm excited to see him playing well again, but his run ends here against Nadal. Still, his ranking should jump quite a bit next week, considering he's at 432 just now.
The second quarterfinal features Viktor Troicki, who won a tough match against Jurgen Melzer in the last round, against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, last week's titlist in Bangkok. He's playing spectacular tennis and could get a worn out Troicki, so I think we're heading for a rematch between Nadal and his countryman in the semifinals. That would be exciting to see.
Two more veterans will face each other in the third quarterfinal - and they're also both in the process of coming back from injury layoffs. Jarkko Nieminen, a steady, completely un-flashy baseliner from Finland will face off against mercurial, net-rushing, recently-married Radek Stepanek. It will be an interesting contrast in styles, and Nieminen has been playing quite well, coming off a final last week. This one could go either way.
The last and best quarterfinal in Tokyo is between Andy Roddick and Gael Monfils. This is an interesting match because both players tend to play more defensive than they really should - and Monfils definitely based his service motion off Andy Roddick's (just watch it - the only difference is Gael doesn't step up to the line with his back foot). Monfils leads in their head-to-head, so this could go either way. I'm looking forward to it.
In Beijing, on the other hand, all four of these matches are just spectacular. Every one could easily have been a final any other week of the year. Top seed Novak Djokovic plays Gilles Simon, who gutted out a tough win against Michael Berrer in the last round. Djoker, on the other hand, got a walkover from Mardy Fish. It's likely that he'll be the fresher player and come out on top - but it could also be that he could have used more time on court, since beating a Chinese wildcard in the first round doesn't really constitute much useful experience.
In the next match, Nikolay Davydenko faces big John Isner. This is definitely a contrast in styles. Normally, I'd say that Davydenko's return would be too much for Isner's serving prowess, but Davydenko has not been in his best form since he came back from injury, and has just been hemorrhaging ranking points this Fall. This could be a win for Isner, but it won't be easy. Both guys played opponents with similar styles in the last round - Isner beat Kohlschreiber while Davydenko bested Cilic. They should each be primed for a good match.
The bottom half has David Ferrer playing Robin Soderling, which is a really great match on paper - but unfortunately for Ferrer, he's gotten owned by Soderling in the past. Robin leads the head-to-head 7-2, and both those wins were on clay. It could be a good match - they play each other tough, most of the time - but the conditions favor Soderling, so I like his odds.
The final match is between Ivan Ljubicic and Andy Murray. Ivan won a Masters event earlier in the year and has not made much noise since. On the other hand, Murray hasn't been playing up to his standards recently - he won a summer hardcourt Masters title, but like his opponent today, has otherwise been less successful than he would prefer. Their last match was a really good one, so I'm hoping this one will be fun as well.
In Tokyo, the field was slightly weaker from the beginning, and that's reflected in the line-up we have in store for today. Rafael Nadal, who handled the young Canadian player Milos Raonic fairly easily yesterday - will face a much different opponent today. Dmitry Tursunov is a former top-20 player who nearly vanished from the game. He's been 1-5 on the year before this week, when he notched two very nice wins over Richard Gasquet and his own doubles partner Ernests Gulbis. He's a great personality, so I'm excited to see him playing well again, but his run ends here against Nadal. Still, his ranking should jump quite a bit next week, considering he's at 432 just now.
The second quarterfinal features Viktor Troicki, who won a tough match against Jurgen Melzer in the last round, against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, last week's titlist in Bangkok. He's playing spectacular tennis and could get a worn out Troicki, so I think we're heading for a rematch between Nadal and his countryman in the semifinals. That would be exciting to see.
Two more veterans will face each other in the third quarterfinal - and they're also both in the process of coming back from injury layoffs. Jarkko Nieminen, a steady, completely un-flashy baseliner from Finland will face off against mercurial, net-rushing, recently-married Radek Stepanek. It will be an interesting contrast in styles, and Nieminen has been playing quite well, coming off a final last week. This one could go either way.
The last and best quarterfinal in Tokyo is between Andy Roddick and Gael Monfils. This is an interesting match because both players tend to play more defensive than they really should - and Monfils definitely based his service motion off Andy Roddick's (just watch it - the only difference is Gael doesn't step up to the line with his back foot). Monfils leads in their head-to-head, so this could go either way. I'm looking forward to it.
In Beijing, on the other hand, all four of these matches are just spectacular. Every one could easily have been a final any other week of the year. Top seed Novak Djokovic plays Gilles Simon, who gutted out a tough win against Michael Berrer in the last round. Djoker, on the other hand, got a walkover from Mardy Fish. It's likely that he'll be the fresher player and come out on top - but it could also be that he could have used more time on court, since beating a Chinese wildcard in the first round doesn't really constitute much useful experience.
In the next match, Nikolay Davydenko faces big John Isner. This is definitely a contrast in styles. Normally, I'd say that Davydenko's return would be too much for Isner's serving prowess, but Davydenko has not been in his best form since he came back from injury, and has just been hemorrhaging ranking points this Fall. This could be a win for Isner, but it won't be easy. Both guys played opponents with similar styles in the last round - Isner beat Kohlschreiber while Davydenko bested Cilic. They should each be primed for a good match.
The bottom half has David Ferrer playing Robin Soderling, which is a really great match on paper - but unfortunately for Ferrer, he's gotten owned by Soderling in the past. Robin leads the head-to-head 7-2, and both those wins were on clay. It could be a good match - they play each other tough, most of the time - but the conditions favor Soderling, so I like his odds.
The final match is between Ivan Ljubicic and Andy Murray. Ivan won a Masters event earlier in the year and has not made much noise since. On the other hand, Murray hasn't been playing up to his standards recently - he won a summer hardcourt Masters title, but like his opponent today, has otherwise been less successful than he would prefer. Their last match was a really good one, so I'm hoping this one will be fun as well.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Week 39 Review and Week 40 Preview
The last week of tennis actually turned out to be pretty exciting - I'm sorry I wasn't around to cover it more while it was actually going on. I'll do a quick recap, though.
In Thailand, it looked like things were going to be pretty boring. All of the top contenders dropped, one by one. Verdasco looked sluggish in his loss to Benjamin Becker, as did Gulbis to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Del Potro and Melzer were beaten by players who had great days, Olivier Rochus and Jarkko Nieminen, in particular. Nieminen had also beaten Viktor Troicki, which is a pretty good pair of scalps for the top Finn. With all of these guys gone, it looked like Rafael Nadal would cruise to the title. He was the only seed to make the semifinals, after all.
But then something unusual happened. In his match against fellow Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Nadal managed to do something I've never seen anyone do, much less him. He lost 24 of 26 break point chances in the match. Garcia-Lopez won the second set in the tiebreak and managed one break in the third set to take the match. It was a pretty stunning performance from Garcia-Lopez, who followed it up with a win over Jarkko Nieminen in the final. He had a great week as well, but Guillermo was riding high after that incredibly gutsy performance against Nadal. This was a great week for these two vets, who between the two of them beat five of the eight seeds in the draw. Both of them jump into the top 50 in the rankings this week, as well.
In Malaysia, there were quite a few stories to pay attention to over the course of the week. Davydenko's slide continues while another Russian is finally back on the rise when Nikolay lost in his first match to Igor Andreev. Andreev also beat one of the other interesting stories of the tournament, as young Canadian player beat Sergiy Stakhovsky in the second round before he went out. Keep an eye out for Raonic. Andreev eventually lost to a third Russian, Mikhail Youzhny - and I predict that he's going to be the top Russian player in the game, in not too long. The best match on that side of the draw was Youzhny over Baghdatis, which went for two close sets before the Russian closed out the Cypriot with relative ease in the third.
On the other side of the draw, the best match-up was between David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych, which also went three sets, and the eventual winner (Ferrer) had to come back from a set down to do it. But while Youzhny was able to build on his win, the Spaniard seemed to be tired from his tough victory over this year's Wimbledon finalist, and he fell to Andrey Golubev. Now Golubev had just notched an impressive win over top seed Robin Soderling. The Kazakh player actually won nine sets in a row before Youzhny came back in the final and beat him in a third-set tiebreak. Despite not quite being able to close the deal, this was a great week for Golubev. I love his game, and I think we'll see him in the top ten at some point soon. And credit to Youzhny as well. Great performances from both guys.
Meanwhile, we're getting closer to the mandatory Masters event in Shanghai, so the tournament draws are getting more and more stacked in preparation. The two 500 events taking place this week in Beijing and Tokyo have 18 of the world's top 20 players in action. The only two missing are both Swiss: Federer and Wawrinka. In Japan, Nadal is the top seed, but the rest of the draw is not as strong. In China, we have seven of the world's top ten players, which is just unbelievable. I'll look at the Tokyo draw, first.
In addition to Nadal's presence, the other noteworthy thing about this tournament is that it marks JW Tsonga's return to action and will be his first tournament played since Wimbledon. He has a tough opening round against last week's finalist in Thailand, Jarkko Nieminen, but that's far from the best opening match-up you'll see thsi week. Eighth-seeded Michael Llodra gets Marco Chiudinelli (ironically, the top Swiss player in action this week), Viktor Troicki plays home-town hope Kei Nishikori, Ernests Gulbis gets former top-tenner Dmitry Tursunov, Richard Gasquet plays Thiemo de Bakker, and Juan Martin Del Potro gets Feliciano Lopez! That match is actually in progress now, and I am upset that I can't find any streaming coverage of it.
Looking ahead a bit, Nadal could get Milos Raonic in the second round, which could be interesting. If Nishikori wins his first round, he could play Jurgen Melzer next, which is a stern challenge for the Japanese 20-year old. It would be great to see Michael Llodra play Radek Stepanek in the second round, as these guys are two fun, veteran players who love to serve and volley. That would be like old-school tennis! Also keep an eye out for a potential match-up between Roddick and Monfils. There are a lot of players who can make noise in this draw, so it's tough to know just how it will shake out. Roddick needs a good run, to try to get his year back on track and finish strong. He said he's 100% healthy again, which is what he'll need to be against this level of competition.
But that group of first-round match-ups is nothing compared to the smorgasbord you'll find in Beijing. Here's the first-round matches I find particularly exciting: Fish-Tipsarev, Querrey-Simon, Cilic-Bellucci, Kohlschreiber-Verdasco, Istomin-Ferrer, Soderling-Robredo, Ljubicic-Youzhny, and Dolgopolov-Baghdatis. I mean, are you kidding? That's an all-star line-up of top players for a 32-player draw. And by the second round, the possibilities are just too numerous to mention. Suffice it to say I'll be watching this tournament with a great deal of excitement.
We'll see what the week brings! It's getting pretty late in the year, and only three of the top eight players have sealed their passage into the year-end tournament. The race is getting tight, now.
In Thailand, it looked like things were going to be pretty boring. All of the top contenders dropped, one by one. Verdasco looked sluggish in his loss to Benjamin Becker, as did Gulbis to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Del Potro and Melzer were beaten by players who had great days, Olivier Rochus and Jarkko Nieminen, in particular. Nieminen had also beaten Viktor Troicki, which is a pretty good pair of scalps for the top Finn. With all of these guys gone, it looked like Rafael Nadal would cruise to the title. He was the only seed to make the semifinals, after all.
But then something unusual happened. In his match against fellow Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Nadal managed to do something I've never seen anyone do, much less him. He lost 24 of 26 break point chances in the match. Garcia-Lopez won the second set in the tiebreak and managed one break in the third set to take the match. It was a pretty stunning performance from Garcia-Lopez, who followed it up with a win over Jarkko Nieminen in the final. He had a great week as well, but Guillermo was riding high after that incredibly gutsy performance against Nadal. This was a great week for these two vets, who between the two of them beat five of the eight seeds in the draw. Both of them jump into the top 50 in the rankings this week, as well.
In Malaysia, there were quite a few stories to pay attention to over the course of the week. Davydenko's slide continues while another Russian is finally back on the rise when Nikolay lost in his first match to Igor Andreev. Andreev also beat one of the other interesting stories of the tournament, as young Canadian player beat Sergiy Stakhovsky in the second round before he went out. Keep an eye out for Raonic. Andreev eventually lost to a third Russian, Mikhail Youzhny - and I predict that he's going to be the top Russian player in the game, in not too long. The best match on that side of the draw was Youzhny over Baghdatis, which went for two close sets before the Russian closed out the Cypriot with relative ease in the third.
On the other side of the draw, the best match-up was between David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych, which also went three sets, and the eventual winner (Ferrer) had to come back from a set down to do it. But while Youzhny was able to build on his win, the Spaniard seemed to be tired from his tough victory over this year's Wimbledon finalist, and he fell to Andrey Golubev. Now Golubev had just notched an impressive win over top seed Robin Soderling. The Kazakh player actually won nine sets in a row before Youzhny came back in the final and beat him in a third-set tiebreak. Despite not quite being able to close the deal, this was a great week for Golubev. I love his game, and I think we'll see him in the top ten at some point soon. And credit to Youzhny as well. Great performances from both guys.
Meanwhile, we're getting closer to the mandatory Masters event in Shanghai, so the tournament draws are getting more and more stacked in preparation. The two 500 events taking place this week in Beijing and Tokyo have 18 of the world's top 20 players in action. The only two missing are both Swiss: Federer and Wawrinka. In Japan, Nadal is the top seed, but the rest of the draw is not as strong. In China, we have seven of the world's top ten players, which is just unbelievable. I'll look at the Tokyo draw, first.
In addition to Nadal's presence, the other noteworthy thing about this tournament is that it marks JW Tsonga's return to action and will be his first tournament played since Wimbledon. He has a tough opening round against last week's finalist in Thailand, Jarkko Nieminen, but that's far from the best opening match-up you'll see thsi week. Eighth-seeded Michael Llodra gets Marco Chiudinelli (ironically, the top Swiss player in action this week), Viktor Troicki plays home-town hope Kei Nishikori, Ernests Gulbis gets former top-tenner Dmitry Tursunov, Richard Gasquet plays Thiemo de Bakker, and Juan Martin Del Potro gets Feliciano Lopez! That match is actually in progress now, and I am upset that I can't find any streaming coverage of it.
Looking ahead a bit, Nadal could get Milos Raonic in the second round, which could be interesting. If Nishikori wins his first round, he could play Jurgen Melzer next, which is a stern challenge for the Japanese 20-year old. It would be great to see Michael Llodra play Radek Stepanek in the second round, as these guys are two fun, veteran players who love to serve and volley. That would be like old-school tennis! Also keep an eye out for a potential match-up between Roddick and Monfils. There are a lot of players who can make noise in this draw, so it's tough to know just how it will shake out. Roddick needs a good run, to try to get his year back on track and finish strong. He said he's 100% healthy again, which is what he'll need to be against this level of competition.
But that group of first-round match-ups is nothing compared to the smorgasbord you'll find in Beijing. Here's the first-round matches I find particularly exciting: Fish-Tipsarev, Querrey-Simon, Cilic-Bellucci, Kohlschreiber-Verdasco, Istomin-Ferrer, Soderling-Robredo, Ljubicic-Youzhny, and Dolgopolov-Baghdatis. I mean, are you kidding? That's an all-star line-up of top players for a 32-player draw. And by the second round, the possibilities are just too numerous to mention. Suffice it to say I'll be watching this tournament with a great deal of excitement.
We'll see what the week brings! It's getting pretty late in the year, and only three of the top eight players have sealed their passage into the year-end tournament. The race is getting tight, now.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Beijing and Tokyo
Between these two Asian tournaments, one is clearly the stronger field. Beijing has Nadal, Djokovic, Roddick, and five of the other top fifteen players among their eight seeds. The number one seed in Tokyo is JMDP, but the rest of the seeds are not quite at his pedigree. While China has Davydenko, Verdasco, Soderling, Gonzalez, and Cilic filling out its top players, all of whom have had strong performances in the last few months, Tokyo has Tsonga, Monfils, Simon, Berdych, Stepanek, Wawrinka, and Hewitt. Now they're all strong players, all in the top 26 at the moment, but with the exception of Monfils and Simon, none has done anything of note during the Summer hardcourt swing.
As for the breakdown of the quarters, Nadal is seeded to meet Gonzo, but his section is packed, so here's hoping he's recovered from his injury. Baghdatis first round, James Blake second, and then he could just as easily get Safin, Acasuso, or Ferrer instead of Gonzalez. Tough draw for the world number 2. The second quarter is less stacked, with Davydenko seeded to meet Cilic, if each can survive the few dangerous floaters, Andreev, Kohlschreiber, and Karlovic.
In the third quarter, Soderling is seeded to meet Andy Roddick, who has never beaten the Swede in two meetings. But they've had three tiebreakers in four sets. If it gets there, it should be interesting. Soderling would have to get through Jeremy Chardy and Tommy Robredo. Roddick should have an easier time against qualifier Lukasz Kubot, who beat Donald Young, who already taken out the much tougher opponent Feliciano Lopez. Strange. After that, Roddick gets either Mathieu or Ljubicic, which should be a good match on its own. The fourth quarter is also strong, with Verdasco seeded to meet Djokovic, but also featuring Victor Troicki, Nicolas Almagro, Robby Ginepri, and Juan Carlos Ferrero.
Back over in Tokyo, JMDP is seeded to meet Hewitt, which should be an interesting match - they've had a few great ones this year already. Santoro is also in that quarter, on his farewell tour. Simon and Berdych are in the second quarter, along with Bellucci and Youzhny. The third quarter features Wawrinka against Monfils, along with John Isner and Dudi Sela. The final quarter has seeds Stepanek and Tsonga, along with Richard Gasquet. Qualifying isn't done yet, but I'm hoping that Gulbis makes it in. Come on, Ernests!
So even though this draw isn't quite as strong, overall, it's still got some good matchups, and should produce some interesting tennis. Both of these tournaments should present an interesting picture of how the run-up to the end-of-year finals is going to go. Five spots have already been settled (Federer, Nadal, Murray, Djokovic, Del Potro) with the sixth nearly a sure thing (Roddick), but the last two are almost up for grabs.
The current top two, Davydenko and Tsonga, have a fair amount of points to defend in the coming weeks. Tsonga could actually drop down to 13 or 14 in a month. The next few (Verdasco, Simon, Soderling, and Gonzalez) all have a chance to grab one of those spots. Let's see how they do!
As for the breakdown of the quarters, Nadal is seeded to meet Gonzo, but his section is packed, so here's hoping he's recovered from his injury. Baghdatis first round, James Blake second, and then he could just as easily get Safin, Acasuso, or Ferrer instead of Gonzalez. Tough draw for the world number 2. The second quarter is less stacked, with Davydenko seeded to meet Cilic, if each can survive the few dangerous floaters, Andreev, Kohlschreiber, and Karlovic.
In the third quarter, Soderling is seeded to meet Andy Roddick, who has never beaten the Swede in two meetings. But they've had three tiebreakers in four sets. If it gets there, it should be interesting. Soderling would have to get through Jeremy Chardy and Tommy Robredo. Roddick should have an easier time against qualifier Lukasz Kubot, who beat Donald Young, who already taken out the much tougher opponent Feliciano Lopez. Strange. After that, Roddick gets either Mathieu or Ljubicic, which should be a good match on its own. The fourth quarter is also strong, with Verdasco seeded to meet Djokovic, but also featuring Victor Troicki, Nicolas Almagro, Robby Ginepri, and Juan Carlos Ferrero.
Back over in Tokyo, JMDP is seeded to meet Hewitt, which should be an interesting match - they've had a few great ones this year already. Santoro is also in that quarter, on his farewell tour. Simon and Berdych are in the second quarter, along with Bellucci and Youzhny. The third quarter features Wawrinka against Monfils, along with John Isner and Dudi Sela. The final quarter has seeds Stepanek and Tsonga, along with Richard Gasquet. Qualifying isn't done yet, but I'm hoping that Gulbis makes it in. Come on, Ernests!
So even though this draw isn't quite as strong, overall, it's still got some good matchups, and should produce some interesting tennis. Both of these tournaments should present an interesting picture of how the run-up to the end-of-year finals is going to go. Five spots have already been settled (Federer, Nadal, Murray, Djokovic, Del Potro) with the sixth nearly a sure thing (Roddick), but the last two are almost up for grabs.
The current top two, Davydenko and Tsonga, have a fair amount of points to defend in the coming weeks. Tsonga could actually drop down to 13 or 14 in a month. The next few (Verdasco, Simon, Soderling, and Gonzalez) all have a chance to grab one of those spots. Let's see how they do!
Friday, October 2, 2009
Asian Swing, part 2
No big surprises in the quarterfinals at either Kuala Lumpur or Bangkok. All eight players in the semifinals are seeded, and at Kuala Lumpur it's the top four seeds. I think the only surprises might have been Troicki over Isner (it's Troicki's first win over a top-50 player since Rainer Schuettler at the World Team Championship in May, and before that it was an injured David Nalbandian in Miami) and the fact that none of the quarterfinals in Kuala Lumpur were really competitive.
So the semis are Davydenko-Soderling, a rematch of their U.S. Open encounter, and Gonzalez-Verdasco, a battle of the Fernandos. I'm guessing it will be a Soderling-Gonzalez final, but it could go either way. In Bangkok, Tsonga and Simon should both come through easily against Troicki and Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer.
Looking ahead to Tokyo and Beijing, there are some great players all set for qualifying. Tomaz Bellucci and Somdev Devvarman are both trying to make it into Tokyo's main draw, along with Marco Chiudinelli, who beat Safin last week and is trying to make Switzerland's list of notable tennis players one name longer. The Tokyo draw is stacked with relatively low-ranking Japanese players, so these guys should be able to make it into the main draw.
Donald Young, who is trying to get in Beijing, may not be so lucky. He was unfortunate enough to draw Feliciano Lopez in the first round of qualifying. Why Lopez, who is ranked 34, is going through the quallies is a bit beyond me. But it's just bad luck for the Donald. Robby Ginepri is also in the qualifying draw, and he has an easier time of it, with a Chinese wildcard in the first round, but Michael Llodra could be a tough opponent in the second round. The Frenchman has not been having a banner year, but he's still a solid player.
It's interesting that the Asian swing is growing in importance on the schedule, even though the men's tour has not had an Asian player break onto the scene in a long time. This is highlighted by Paradorn Srichipan's attempt to start to his comeback in doubles this week, which probably didn't go the way he had hoped. Here's hoping he can return to the tour regularly next year, along with Japanese player Kei Nishikori. These Asian tournaments would be doing even better if the home crowds had some big-name players they could cheer for.
So the semis are Davydenko-Soderling, a rematch of their U.S. Open encounter, and Gonzalez-Verdasco, a battle of the Fernandos. I'm guessing it will be a Soderling-Gonzalez final, but it could go either way. In Bangkok, Tsonga and Simon should both come through easily against Troicki and Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer.
Looking ahead to Tokyo and Beijing, there are some great players all set for qualifying. Tomaz Bellucci and Somdev Devvarman are both trying to make it into Tokyo's main draw, along with Marco Chiudinelli, who beat Safin last week and is trying to make Switzerland's list of notable tennis players one name longer. The Tokyo draw is stacked with relatively low-ranking Japanese players, so these guys should be able to make it into the main draw.
Donald Young, who is trying to get in Beijing, may not be so lucky. He was unfortunate enough to draw Feliciano Lopez in the first round of qualifying. Why Lopez, who is ranked 34, is going through the quallies is a bit beyond me. But it's just bad luck for the Donald. Robby Ginepri is also in the qualifying draw, and he has an easier time of it, with a Chinese wildcard in the first round, but Michael Llodra could be a tough opponent in the second round. The Frenchman has not been having a banner year, but he's still a solid player.
It's interesting that the Asian swing is growing in importance on the schedule, even though the men's tour has not had an Asian player break onto the scene in a long time. This is highlighted by Paradorn Srichipan's attempt to start to his comeback in doubles this week, which probably didn't go the way he had hoped. Here's hoping he can return to the tour regularly next year, along with Japanese player Kei Nishikori. These Asian tournaments would be doing even better if the home crowds had some big-name players they could cheer for.
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