Week 40 Wrap-up and Shangai Masters Preview

Even though we're through with play on Sunday, the action from week 40 is not quite finished. The final in Tokyo has concluded as one might have expected, with Nadal just too strong for Monfils, but in Beijing, rain has kept Djokovic and Ferrer from playing out their match. Djokovic is already up a break by the fourth game, though, so when play resumes on Monday, it seems like he'll have the advantage.

It wasn't the most exciting week for this pair of Asian ATP 500 events, but there were some absolutely amazing matches. Roddick-Monfils and Nadal-Troicki were two of the best, most exciting matches that I've seen for the last few months. This was a good week for Troicki, who has a fair amount of talent but hasn't really broken through with any big wins. He almost had a career-changing victory over Nadal, but he couldn't quite pull it off. He had already beaten Melzer in a third-set tiebreak in the previous round, so here's hoping he can continue playing that way and build off a very strong week, even if he did completely choke when he had the match on his racket.

The week in Beijing wasn't quite as exciting, but it was surprising to see the second, third, and fourth seeds put up weak efforts in their quarterfinal losses. Murray, Soderling, and Davydenko all failed to win a set in that round. Good show from Djokovic and Ferrer, but all of those other guys are still trying to qualify for the end-of-year championships, and the opportunities to wrap up those points are getting scarcer.

Next week in Shanghai, trying to rack up points in order to qualify for London will be the focus, for a lot of these players. It's really late in the season for only three of the eight spots to be wrapped up - Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer are all in, which isn't a shock. Murray and Soderling are in very good shape, with Berdych in a moderately safe position, while Roddick and Verdasco are currently in the 7th and 8th spots, but are in no way secure in their spots. One or both of them will probably even drop this week, as Ferrer was sitting in 9th, but getting to the final in Beijing (at least, maybe even winning) will help his chances immensely.

One of the players with a chance of qualifying for the year-end championships is already out of Shanghai, as Nicolas Almagro fell in a Sunday first-round match to Alexandr Dolgopolov - it was another third set tiebreak, which is a fine way to start off the week. I'll take a look at what other action you can expect as I usually do, going quarter by quarter.

Nadal, as the top seed and recent champion in Tokyo, isn't going to have it easy this week. He gets a bye in the first round, but then he'll have to face either Gilles Simon or Stan Wawrinka, who is playing his first ATP tournament since the U.S. Open, where he played some incredible tennis but wore himself out in the process. We'll see if he can continue his great under new coach Peter Lundgren. And after that, he'll have either Jurgen Melzer, Mardy Fish, or Denis Istomin. The other half of Nadal's quarter is not quite so loaded - Davydenko could potentiall be challenged by Sergiy Stakhovsky, but I'll be shocked if Verdasco doesn't get through de Bakker and Monaco, which will help his London push. Verdasco-Davydenko should be a good match, if both get that far, and then the winner will get Nadal (or his conqueror) in the quarters.

The second quarter belongs to Andy Murray, who has not been on a great run since he won one of the Summer hardcourt Masters titles. He'll probably open against Radek Stepanek in the second round, and then he gets either Chardy, Baghdatis, or Dolgopolov. He doesn't need to win the tournament to secure his place in London - he just needs to win a couple rounds here, and I'll be shocked if he doesn't. The bottom half of his quarter has Mikhail Youzhny, as well as Sam Querrey and Michael Berrer (which isn't a bad first-round match) but the real wildcard is JW Tsonga, back from an injury layoff, who opens against Feliciano Lopez. Murray's going to have to really slump to not come through this section, though.

The third quarter is third-seed Roger Federer's (I know, can you believe it?) and his half is pretty easy, with one potential exception. It's likely that Fed's first round match will be against John Isner, and without any match play to get used to the conditions, that could be a tough one. Isner would have to play (and serve) at his absolute max to make it a match, but it's an outside possibility. Beyond that, I don't see Seppi, Yen-Hsun Lu, or a slumping Marin Cilic giving him any trouble. The other half of his section is a a bit tougher, though. Robin Soderling is there, and he'll open against either Tipsarevic or Golubev. Ferrer beat Soderling last week, and he's in this section, but with almost no rest between tournaments, it's going to be a tough ask to play Djokovic in a final today and (in all likelihood) Llodra in a first round tomorrow, in an entirely different city.

The last quarter is Djokovic's, but he's going to be in a similar situation to Ferrer, if not quite as bad, since he has a first-round bye. He'll probably open against Ljubicic, and that could be a tricky match, but it probably won't be if you were looking at the Croat's recent form. Djoker's section has one of the best first-rounders, between Richard Gasquet and Ernests Gulbis - call it "the battle of wasted talent." The winner of that one will most likely get Monfils, and then that winner gets Djokovic. That's pretty exciting, but I think the other half of this section is even better. Roddick and Berdych are the seeds, and both are vying for places in the year-end championships. Roddick opens against Kohlschreiber, then gets a relatively easy match against either Schwank or Garcia-Lopez, and neither of them are at their best on hard-courts, but then Roddick and Berdych will face off, assuming Berdych can beat Robredo (he probably can). That will be an essential match for both of these players' end-of-year fortunes.

There was a lull after the U.S. Open, but things are starting to heat up again, and this is the most exciting end-of-year championship qualifying season that I can recall. Usually, there are only two or at most three spots left to determine at this point in the season, not five. Plenty of players with a lot to gain (and lose) in this week's action.