The amazing drama of this year's Wimbledon continued today, though there were not any especially noteworthy upsets. John Isner lost to Thiemo De Bakker, in a result that surprised absolutely no one. Credit to De Bakker for being able to keep up his solid play in an odd situation, and also to Isner for not retiring for not retiring when it was clear he was unable to produce a competitive match.
On the other hand, Romanian Victor Hanescu, who was playing on the now-famed court 18, caused a different kind of stir when he retired down 3-0 in the fifth set after getting into it with the crowd, and allegedly spitting at some rowdy fans and deliberately faulting away his last service game. I'm not sure exactly what the story is with that, but it's certainly odd.
The only other upset of note was Paul-Henri Mathieu over Mikhail Youzhny, in another five set match. Mathieu got a lucky net cord winner on break point in the fourth set, but before that, Youzhny looked to be on top of the match. Apparently, he couldn't recover from that disappointment and ended up losing the match.
The other top players had relatively little trouble: Federer and Djokovic won their matches with more ease than they had demonstrated yet during these championships. Hewitt beat Gael Monfils in three sets, while Melzer and Roddick won their matches in four. The women made it through with no trouble at all; all eight of the matches that took place today were completed in straight sets, and the only upsets were Henin over Petrova and Zonvareva over Wickmayer.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's action, it looks like the first Saturday might actually be fairly straight forward. It's tough to see any big upsets in the cards when you have Nadal facing Petzschner, Murray facing Simon, Soderling facing Bellucci, Tsonga facing Kamke, and Querrey facing Malisse. Querrey is probably in the most danger of the top players, while the more interesting matches feature lower-ranked players. Fognini plays Benneteau and Mathieu plays De Bakker, which could each go either way. Ferrer v. Chardy could actually be the closest match on offer tomorrow, but just because of the surface.
Still, I anticipate relatively easy wins for the higher-ranked players in most if not all of these matches, which will set us up for some stunning fourth round contests on Wimbledon's super monday.
On the women's side, the story is much the same. The higher-ranked players need to get through their matches tomorrow, which do not promise a great deal of drama, to set up the good match-ups on Monday. I expect Serena, Wozniacki, Radwanska, Sharapova, Pennetta, Li Na, and Azarenka to win tomorrow - or at least most of them. While there will probably be an upset or two, no single match looks particularly ripe for one.
We'll wrap the most amazing first week of a grand slam in recent memory, and then see how things proceed in the second.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Wimbledon Day 4
Despite the fact that today marked the Queen of England's first visit to Wimbledon in 33 years, the story of the day was the conclusion of the epic match between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut. It was a thrilling spectacle, and has gotten a lot of media attention from all over the world - this was so out of the ordinary, so out of what had been considered the realm of the possible, that it got the attention of people who don't even think about tennis. I was impressed both with the two players amazing physical conditioning and mental constitutions, but I was also impressed by the fact that the match was won by Isner, not lost by Mahut. In that last game, Isner earned his break chance with a spectacular forehand winner, and cracked a backhand pass down the line to seal the match. I hope his body isn't completely wrecked, because he earned more than a first-round win today.
It's tough to imagine, but there was actually a lot of other stuff going on around the grounds today. Rafael Nadal met a stern test from young Robin Haase, who managed to play two spectacular sets, but couldn't keep up that level of play. Still, if Haase can reproduce the form he generated to take two sets off the world number one, there's no reason not to expect his ranking will rise dramatically.
Dolgopolov is another young, relatively unknown player who tested one of the top dogs. JW Tsonga managed to win 10-8 in the fifth, which would be impressive if it had occurred on a different day. I expect that we'll be seeing more of the 21-year old Ukrainian as well. So, no upsets in those two matches, but sneak previews of a couple players with potentially very bright futures.
In other action, Svetlana Kuznetsova continued her dramatic slide by losing in three sets to Anastasia Rodionova. And top doubles team Nestor and Zimonjic barely escaped against British duo Murray/Marray (love the pairing) by winning 15-13 in the fifth. Again, if it had happened on any other day... with so many of the top contenders struggling, and all the crazy matches and comebacks that have taken place, it's easy to say that this is the most exciting first week at Wimbledon in a long time.
We'll see if the streak can continue tomorrow, and the schedule of play is appetizing, I have to say. As third round action begins, we start to see the first seeds clashing, when both of them have made it this far.
Justine Henin plays Nadia Petrova, which could be tough - even though Justine has a 13-2 record against the Russian, including a straight sets win earlier this year at the Australian Open. And Kim Clijsters plays Maria Kirilenko, and Kim is 2-0, so those players are somewhat less familiar with each other's games. Jankovic and Bondarenko play each other, and Venus and Kleybanova. Jankovic has dominated Bondarenko, but Venus and Kleybanova are 1-1. That's some pretty great action for the third round of a grand slam.
And things only get better on the men's side. Hewitt plays Monfils in a match that should feature a ton of running. Hewitt is certainly in the better form and has a vastly superior grass court record, but Monfils leads the head-to-head 2-1. I think I give Hewitt the edge here based on recent performance, but Monfils likes the big stage, and if he can make a couple of crazy shots - and Hewitt will make him try them - then that will fire him up and could get him over the finish line.
And then Roger Federer plays Arnaud Clement, who has won three matches against Federer, but none since 2001. And though Clement made the quarterfinals here two years ago, he's on the wrong side of 30 and it's tough to see him really challenging Federer. On the other hand, Fed's form has not been great thus far, and the thing that seems to give him the most trouble is when a player gets a lot of his balls back in play, which is something that Clement can do. If Federer has to hit too shots, the chances of him shanking go up dramatically. Clement may win a set, but Federer comes through here.
Andy Roddick plays German Phillipp Kohlschreiber. Despite the fact that Roddick leads the head to head 2-1, Kohls won their latest meeting, in a tight five-set match at the 2008 Australian Open. Roddick lost that one by being too passive and waiting for his opponent to break down, a mistake which Roddick has learned to avoid more often than not since then. Roddick knows that his opponent can be dangerous, so he'll be looking to take the game to the German, and Kohlschreiber should be more tired than Roddick, needing a long five-set match to best his last opponent, Teimuraz Gabashvili. I like Roddick in this one.
There are other great players in action - Youzhny against Mathieu, Berdych against Istomin, and Lopez against Melzer. And of course, John Isner has to play his second round match against Thiemo De Bakker. I wonder if we're going to get another day as exciting as we've had in three of the last four, or if we're going to get a relatively humdrum and straightforward day of tennis. In some ways, I could almost use the break.
It's tough to imagine, but there was actually a lot of other stuff going on around the grounds today. Rafael Nadal met a stern test from young Robin Haase, who managed to play two spectacular sets, but couldn't keep up that level of play. Still, if Haase can reproduce the form he generated to take two sets off the world number one, there's no reason not to expect his ranking will rise dramatically.
Dolgopolov is another young, relatively unknown player who tested one of the top dogs. JW Tsonga managed to win 10-8 in the fifth, which would be impressive if it had occurred on a different day. I expect that we'll be seeing more of the 21-year old Ukrainian as well. So, no upsets in those two matches, but sneak previews of a couple players with potentially very bright futures.
In other action, Svetlana Kuznetsova continued her dramatic slide by losing in three sets to Anastasia Rodionova. And top doubles team Nestor and Zimonjic barely escaped against British duo Murray/Marray (love the pairing) by winning 15-13 in the fifth. Again, if it had happened on any other day... with so many of the top contenders struggling, and all the crazy matches and comebacks that have taken place, it's easy to say that this is the most exciting first week at Wimbledon in a long time.
We'll see if the streak can continue tomorrow, and the schedule of play is appetizing, I have to say. As third round action begins, we start to see the first seeds clashing, when both of them have made it this far.
Justine Henin plays Nadia Petrova, which could be tough - even though Justine has a 13-2 record against the Russian, including a straight sets win earlier this year at the Australian Open. And Kim Clijsters plays Maria Kirilenko, and Kim is 2-0, so those players are somewhat less familiar with each other's games. Jankovic and Bondarenko play each other, and Venus and Kleybanova. Jankovic has dominated Bondarenko, but Venus and Kleybanova are 1-1. That's some pretty great action for the third round of a grand slam.
And things only get better on the men's side. Hewitt plays Monfils in a match that should feature a ton of running. Hewitt is certainly in the better form and has a vastly superior grass court record, but Monfils leads the head-to-head 2-1. I think I give Hewitt the edge here based on recent performance, but Monfils likes the big stage, and if he can make a couple of crazy shots - and Hewitt will make him try them - then that will fire him up and could get him over the finish line.
And then Roger Federer plays Arnaud Clement, who has won three matches against Federer, but none since 2001. And though Clement made the quarterfinals here two years ago, he's on the wrong side of 30 and it's tough to see him really challenging Federer. On the other hand, Fed's form has not been great thus far, and the thing that seems to give him the most trouble is when a player gets a lot of his balls back in play, which is something that Clement can do. If Federer has to hit too shots, the chances of him shanking go up dramatically. Clement may win a set, but Federer comes through here.
Andy Roddick plays German Phillipp Kohlschreiber. Despite the fact that Roddick leads the head to head 2-1, Kohls won their latest meeting, in a tight five-set match at the 2008 Australian Open. Roddick lost that one by being too passive and waiting for his opponent to break down, a mistake which Roddick has learned to avoid more often than not since then. Roddick knows that his opponent can be dangerous, so he'll be looking to take the game to the German, and Kohlschreiber should be more tired than Roddick, needing a long five-set match to best his last opponent, Teimuraz Gabashvili. I like Roddick in this one.
There are other great players in action - Youzhny against Mathieu, Berdych against Istomin, and Lopez against Melzer. And of course, John Isner has to play his second round match against Thiemo De Bakker. I wonder if we're going to get another day as exciting as we've had in three of the last four, or if we're going to get a relatively humdrum and straightforward day of tennis. In some ways, I could almost use the break.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Wimbledon Day 3
In the third day of action at Wimbledon, there was only one story that really mattered: the colossal, stupendous, unbelievable fifth set between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut. It has, by itself, gone on longer than any entire match in Wimbledon history, eclipsing - nay, shattering - dozens of records in the process, and getting so far away from them that it is almost a certainty that these new records will never be surpassed so long as tennis continues to be played.
It's difficult to come up with enough superlatives to describe this match, and it's not even over. Tied at 59-all in the fifth set, the match was suspended on account of darkness for the second time, something which has certainly never happened before without inclement weather being involved. Both players have demolished the record for aces served in a match, with both players on the verge of breaking triple-digits. It's really stunning, and a testament both to the mental fortitude and physical exertion that this sport requires.
For the last forty games or so, Isner looked exhausted. Even though he's fit, he's also a much bigger guy than Mahut is, so continuing to move is tougher for him. But despite not moving his feet and barely even seeming able to walk across the court, Isner kept demolishing serves and blasting forehands, no matter how physically spent he was. Mahut was the fresher player, but there's a reason he's ranked outside the top hundred. It'll be fascinating to see what happens tomorrow - how sore the players are, what their strategies are going to be. Isner has the advantage, serving first. With the break to rest up, I think he'll pull out the win, but in a way, it doesn't matter, because whoever comes out on top will be spent for their next match.
In other, far less interesting news, Davydenko lost to German Daniel Brands. That was the biggest upset of the day, and one of the only results not on court 18 worth talking about. Melanie Oudin and Mardy Fish also lost, so despite Isner's tremendous effort, it was not a great day for Americans. Fish was talking like James Blake after the match, as well. Seemingly aware of the fact that his best days are behind him, he said it was disappointing to have never reached the second week at Wimbledon. And while he is right, I think he still has a shot - albeit an outside one - in the next couple of years.
The best performance by an American came from Andy Roddick, who started the match against Michael Llodra getting brutalized by the Frenchman's big serving and clever net play. But Llodra couldn't keep up his level, and Roddick snuck out the second set, ran away with the third, and dominated the tiebreak in the fourth. It was a smart, strong, and savvy performance from last year's finalist. He also got a bit of a break when his next opponent was decided by a long, brutal slugfest (though those words may have lost some meaning thanks to Isner and Mahut) between Gabashvili and Kohlschreiber. Gabashvili was the more potentially dangerous foe, and he lost 9-7 to the German. Despite a loss to Kohls at the Aussie Open a few years ago, Roddick should be handle what he has to offer.
Tomorrow, there will be some tennis taking place other than the match between Isner and Mahut, shockingly. Murray faces Jarkko Nieminen on center court, likely to be in front of the queen. Nadal and Robin Haase will play third, with the surprising choice of Wozniacki and Chang in the middle. Okay, but you do know that defending champ Serena Williams is playing tomorrow too, right? Oh, she's on court 2. Okay. I won't speculate further on the reasoning behind that decision, because scheduling is very difficult, but it does strike me as odd.
Court 1 should feature a bevy of aces, as Maria Sharapova, Robin Soderling, and Sam Querrey are all in action. I expect all three to get through their matches. There are other good players in action tomorrow - Tsonga, Ferrer, Kuznetsova, Azarenka... but there don't appear to be many obviously exciting match-ups. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't be great tennis, but it's hard for me to get really pumped for Martin Fischer v. Tomaz Bellucci or Xavier Malisse v. Julien Reister. The top half of the men's draw and the bottom half of the women's draw seems to be a lot more exciting, if not necessarily stronger.
What could possibly follow up the spectacle of Day 3 at Wimbledon 2010? Can Isner and Mahut ever finish their match? What other surprises will the day bring?
It's difficult to come up with enough superlatives to describe this match, and it's not even over. Tied at 59-all in the fifth set, the match was suspended on account of darkness for the second time, something which has certainly never happened before without inclement weather being involved. Both players have demolished the record for aces served in a match, with both players on the verge of breaking triple-digits. It's really stunning, and a testament both to the mental fortitude and physical exertion that this sport requires.
For the last forty games or so, Isner looked exhausted. Even though he's fit, he's also a much bigger guy than Mahut is, so continuing to move is tougher for him. But despite not moving his feet and barely even seeming able to walk across the court, Isner kept demolishing serves and blasting forehands, no matter how physically spent he was. Mahut was the fresher player, but there's a reason he's ranked outside the top hundred. It'll be fascinating to see what happens tomorrow - how sore the players are, what their strategies are going to be. Isner has the advantage, serving first. With the break to rest up, I think he'll pull out the win, but in a way, it doesn't matter, because whoever comes out on top will be spent for their next match.
In other, far less interesting news, Davydenko lost to German Daniel Brands. That was the biggest upset of the day, and one of the only results not on court 18 worth talking about. Melanie Oudin and Mardy Fish also lost, so despite Isner's tremendous effort, it was not a great day for Americans. Fish was talking like James Blake after the match, as well. Seemingly aware of the fact that his best days are behind him, he said it was disappointing to have never reached the second week at Wimbledon. And while he is right, I think he still has a shot - albeit an outside one - in the next couple of years.
The best performance by an American came from Andy Roddick, who started the match against Michael Llodra getting brutalized by the Frenchman's big serving and clever net play. But Llodra couldn't keep up his level, and Roddick snuck out the second set, ran away with the third, and dominated the tiebreak in the fourth. It was a smart, strong, and savvy performance from last year's finalist. He also got a bit of a break when his next opponent was decided by a long, brutal slugfest (though those words may have lost some meaning thanks to Isner and Mahut) between Gabashvili and Kohlschreiber. Gabashvili was the more potentially dangerous foe, and he lost 9-7 to the German. Despite a loss to Kohls at the Aussie Open a few years ago, Roddick should be handle what he has to offer.
Tomorrow, there will be some tennis taking place other than the match between Isner and Mahut, shockingly. Murray faces Jarkko Nieminen on center court, likely to be in front of the queen. Nadal and Robin Haase will play third, with the surprising choice of Wozniacki and Chang in the middle. Okay, but you do know that defending champ Serena Williams is playing tomorrow too, right? Oh, she's on court 2. Okay. I won't speculate further on the reasoning behind that decision, because scheduling is very difficult, but it does strike me as odd.
Court 1 should feature a bevy of aces, as Maria Sharapova, Robin Soderling, and Sam Querrey are all in action. I expect all three to get through their matches. There are other good players in action tomorrow - Tsonga, Ferrer, Kuznetsova, Azarenka... but there don't appear to be many obviously exciting match-ups. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't be great tennis, but it's hard for me to get really pumped for Martin Fischer v. Tomaz Bellucci or Xavier Malisse v. Julien Reister. The top half of the men's draw and the bottom half of the women's draw seems to be a lot more exciting, if not necessarily stronger.
What could possibly follow up the spectacle of Day 3 at Wimbledon 2010? Can Isner and Mahut ever finish their match? What other surprises will the day bring?
Wimbledon Day 2
Okay, that's how we were expecting the first round at Wimbledon to go. The second day of action at SW19 proceeded in a fashion much more in tune with what one what expect. The top seeds breezed through, almost entirely untroubled. Nothing like that the top seeds had to struggle through on day one. The toughest match for one of the top players was JW Tsonga's victory over Robbie Kendrick, which took four sets and two tiebreaks. But Nadal, Murray, Soderling, and Ferrer all made it through in straight sets, all of which were pretty routine. The same could be said for the players on the women's side, with one exception.
The only upsets of note were the defeat of Juan Carlos Ferrero by Xavier Malisse, Nicolas Almagro's loss to Andreas Seppi, and Marcos Baghdatis's loss to Lukas Lacko. All three could have made deep runs here, but they weren't among the favorites. The biggest upset took place on the women's side, where French Open finalist Sam Stosur, who went down pretty tamely to Estonian Kaia Kanepi. I really though that Sam was poised for a deep run here, what with her excellent net-play. Oh well, maybe next year.
The other interesting match was James Blake's loss to Robin Haase. Despite the fact that it was only Blake's second match back after an extended injury layoff, Blake was extremely unhappy after the loss. He was clearly still troubled with some pain in his knee, and that left him antsy on court. His focus was all over the place, and his cause was not helped by being able to hear Pam Shriver announcing from the sidelines. That was quite an unusual confrontation, the way Blake yelled at her in between points. I really hope to see Blake come back and play close to the level he's capable of, but if he's not physically capable, then I don't want him to cause himself any more pain. Still, I do hope he makes a recovery. It's still too soon to make any definitive call about his future, especially considering his mumblings about retirement were made in the heat of the moment, after a frustrating loss.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, there are a handful of matches that promise to give us some of the excitement that today's action lacked. First of all, there are three matches entering their final set that are to be completed tomorrow after being suspended due to darkness. Thiemo De Bakker and Santiago Giraldo are just going to start the fifth set, while Daniela Hantuchova and Vania King are entering the third. But the tightest match has been between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut. Both are good on grass, and that should be an interesting fifth set.
In addition, Andy Roddick plays last week's Eastbourne titlist Michael Llodra, who is now being coached by Amelie Mauresmo. As an aside, that's the only instance I know of a male player having a female coach. The other titlist from last week, Sergiy Stakhovsky, was forced to retire down two sets to Sam Querrey, so it will be interesting to see how Llodra fares against last year's finalist. This is by no means a gimme for Roddick, as Llodra is a very talented grass-court player. It should be an interesting match.
Djokovic, who was very troubled by Olivier Rochus, could also have some problems with his next opponent, American serve-and-volleyer Taylor Dent. The American will have to play better than he did in his opening round, but if he can serve well and volley well, then Djokovic will also have to up the level of his game. Djoker might also prefer a big hitter from the service line and a target at night like Dent, as opposed to a speedy little slice-and-dicer like Rochus, so maybe he won't have as much trouble. We'll see what kind of form he's in.
I am also looking forward to Hewitt-Korolev, Berdych-Becker, Clement-Luczak, and Troicki-Melzer. One last match to watch is Kohlschreiber-Gabashvili, since the winner of that match might get Andy Roddick on Friday. Federer should have a much easier time tomorrow than he did on Monday - his opponent is a Serbian who has never even been ranked inside the top hundred. If Fed doesn't absolutely cruise through this match, then we'll know that he's really feeling off, and the rough fight with Alejandro Falla wasn't just a fluke. But based on that performance, it's tough to see Federer defending his title. I expect that the Fed we all remember will be back tomorrow.
The only upsets of note were the defeat of Juan Carlos Ferrero by Xavier Malisse, Nicolas Almagro's loss to Andreas Seppi, and Marcos Baghdatis's loss to Lukas Lacko. All three could have made deep runs here, but they weren't among the favorites. The biggest upset took place on the women's side, where French Open finalist Sam Stosur, who went down pretty tamely to Estonian Kaia Kanepi. I really though that Sam was poised for a deep run here, what with her excellent net-play. Oh well, maybe next year.
The other interesting match was James Blake's loss to Robin Haase. Despite the fact that it was only Blake's second match back after an extended injury layoff, Blake was extremely unhappy after the loss. He was clearly still troubled with some pain in his knee, and that left him antsy on court. His focus was all over the place, and his cause was not helped by being able to hear Pam Shriver announcing from the sidelines. That was quite an unusual confrontation, the way Blake yelled at her in between points. I really hope to see Blake come back and play close to the level he's capable of, but if he's not physically capable, then I don't want him to cause himself any more pain. Still, I do hope he makes a recovery. It's still too soon to make any definitive call about his future, especially considering his mumblings about retirement were made in the heat of the moment, after a frustrating loss.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, there are a handful of matches that promise to give us some of the excitement that today's action lacked. First of all, there are three matches entering their final set that are to be completed tomorrow after being suspended due to darkness. Thiemo De Bakker and Santiago Giraldo are just going to start the fifth set, while Daniela Hantuchova and Vania King are entering the third. But the tightest match has been between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut. Both are good on grass, and that should be an interesting fifth set.
In addition, Andy Roddick plays last week's Eastbourne titlist Michael Llodra, who is now being coached by Amelie Mauresmo. As an aside, that's the only instance I know of a male player having a female coach. The other titlist from last week, Sergiy Stakhovsky, was forced to retire down two sets to Sam Querrey, so it will be interesting to see how Llodra fares against last year's finalist. This is by no means a gimme for Roddick, as Llodra is a very talented grass-court player. It should be an interesting match.
Djokovic, who was very troubled by Olivier Rochus, could also have some problems with his next opponent, American serve-and-volleyer Taylor Dent. The American will have to play better than he did in his opening round, but if he can serve well and volley well, then Djokovic will also have to up the level of his game. Djoker might also prefer a big hitter from the service line and a target at night like Dent, as opposed to a speedy little slice-and-dicer like Rochus, so maybe he won't have as much trouble. We'll see what kind of form he's in.
I am also looking forward to Hewitt-Korolev, Berdych-Becker, Clement-Luczak, and Troicki-Melzer. One last match to watch is Kohlschreiber-Gabashvili, since the winner of that match might get Andy Roddick on Friday. Federer should have a much easier time tomorrow than he did on Monday - his opponent is a Serbian who has never even been ranked inside the top hundred. If Fed doesn't absolutely cruise through this match, then we'll know that he's really feeling off, and the rough fight with Alejandro Falla wasn't just a fluke. But based on that performance, it's tough to see Federer defending his title. I expect that the Fed we all remember will be back tomorrow.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Wimbledon Day 1
That was a pretty exciting first day. Four of the sixteen men's seeds in action lost today, and one women's seed. The seed who lost on the women's side was a bit of a surprise though, as it was French Open champion Francesca Schiavone. She went down fairly tamely to Vera Dushevina, but really - Schiavone's effort to win the French was so monumental that it's not too much of a surprise to see her stumble in the next big tournament.
The men's seeds who lost today didn't include any grand slam champions, but there were still some very good players. Tommy Robredo, who has been struggling in the past few months, fell to Australian veteran Peter Luczak, who got his first ever win at WImbledon. Stan Wawrinka lost to Denis Istomin, and even though grass isn't his favorite surface, I expected him to make it further. Ljubicic has been struggling with injury, so his loss isn't too terribly surprising. But the highest-ranked player to lose - and really, the most surprising - was Marin Cilic's straight sets defeat to Florian Mayer. Cilic should do well on the grass court, but this clearly won't be his year.
The losses weren't anywhere near as exciting as the near-losses. Of the four top ten seeds in action today, only one of the players made smooth progress. Andy Roddick had no trouble against Rajeev Ram, winning without even facing a break point. On the other hand, Nikolay Davydenko, Novak Djokovic, and even Roger Federer all needed five sets to get through their first-round matches. Any of those three players could have easily lost today, as shocking as that is. Scratchy wins, but they get to play another day. They're going to need to up their level of play to make it further in the tournament, though.
Also of note, Ricardas Berankis, former U.S. Open junior champion, turned 20 today, and got his first Grand Slam win over Aussie Carsten Ball. I think we'll see more of him in the future, along with Bernard Tomic - who played tough, but still lost to Mardy Fish. It's hard to be a 20-year old or younger on the ATP tour these days, with how physical the game has become.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, it's going to be tough to top the first half of the first round. The rest of the field is in action, so we'll get to see how Nadal, Murray, Serena Williams, and Sharapova are looking. There's plenty of appetizing match-ups on offer - watch for Soderling-Ginepri, Nadal-Nishikori, Malisse-Ferrero, Youzhny-Sela, and Ferrer-Kiefer. I predict fewer five-setters and upsets tomorrow than there were today, but it still should be fun to see how these players perform.
The men's seeds who lost today didn't include any grand slam champions, but there were still some very good players. Tommy Robredo, who has been struggling in the past few months, fell to Australian veteran Peter Luczak, who got his first ever win at WImbledon. Stan Wawrinka lost to Denis Istomin, and even though grass isn't his favorite surface, I expected him to make it further. Ljubicic has been struggling with injury, so his loss isn't too terribly surprising. But the highest-ranked player to lose - and really, the most surprising - was Marin Cilic's straight sets defeat to Florian Mayer. Cilic should do well on the grass court, but this clearly won't be his year.
The losses weren't anywhere near as exciting as the near-losses. Of the four top ten seeds in action today, only one of the players made smooth progress. Andy Roddick had no trouble against Rajeev Ram, winning without even facing a break point. On the other hand, Nikolay Davydenko, Novak Djokovic, and even Roger Federer all needed five sets to get through their first-round matches. Any of those three players could have easily lost today, as shocking as that is. Scratchy wins, but they get to play another day. They're going to need to up their level of play to make it further in the tournament, though.
Also of note, Ricardas Berankis, former U.S. Open junior champion, turned 20 today, and got his first Grand Slam win over Aussie Carsten Ball. I think we'll see more of him in the future, along with Bernard Tomic - who played tough, but still lost to Mardy Fish. It's hard to be a 20-year old or younger on the ATP tour these days, with how physical the game has become.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, it's going to be tough to top the first half of the first round. The rest of the field is in action, so we'll get to see how Nadal, Murray, Serena Williams, and Sharapova are looking. There's plenty of appetizing match-ups on offer - watch for Soderling-Ginepri, Nadal-Nishikori, Malisse-Ferrero, Youzhny-Sela, and Ferrer-Kiefer. I predict fewer five-setters and upsets tomorrow than there were today, but it still should be fun to see how these players perform.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Last Minute Wimbledon Women's Preview
It may only be a few hours before Wimbledon officially gets underway, so let me throw together a quick preview of the women's draw. It's not quite as appetizing a draw as the men's but there are some excellent match-ups down the road.
Serena Williams, the top seed and defending champion, has something of a tricky draw. It's not as littered with landmines as Nadal's, but it's still going to be a challenge. She opens against Portuguese teen Michelle Larcher De Brito, and then gets will probably get Chakvetadze. After that, she may get Safarova, followed by either Hantuchova, or former champion Sharapova. That's an enticing round of 16 match if I've ever seen one. In the quarters, I expect Serena to find either Aggie Radwanska, Na Li, or Svetlana Kuznetsova. Any of those matches could be tough if Serena's having an off-day, but it's tough to see Serena not making it through to the semifinals.
The second quarter is ostensibly Caroline Wozniacki's, but she hasn't been showing the greatest form lately, so it may be that the sixth seed Sam Stosur is actually the favorite. Stosur's net-rushing, serve-and-volley style of play that she honed during her years as a doubles player should serve her well here. This section also has Azarenka, who showed some of her best form of the year in the past week. Watch for Kimiko Date Krumm to upset 31st seed Alexandra Dulgheru in the first round.
The third quarter is probably the toughest, because in addition to having fourth seed Jelena Jankovic, it also has Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin. One of those three is almost certainly going to make it through to the semis, which is a shame for the other players in this section. Zvonareva and Alona Bondarenko are here, but I don't see them getting through these tougher players. Keep an eye on American teen Alison Riske against Belgian number three (they all ended up in this section) Yanina Wickmayer.
The final quarter of the draw features second-seeded Venus Williams most prominently, of course. But it also has French Open champion Frnacesca Schiavone, former French Open champion Ana Ivanovic, and former Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli. It had Dinara Safina, but she pulled out of the tournament, and her spot was filled by Melanie Oudin. It's a pretty exciting quarter - lots of good players, but other than Venus, not really very many serious threats.
I think it's likely that we'll have Venus Williams playing Justine Henin in one semifinal, Seran Williams playing Sam Stosur in the other. As much as I would like Justine to get her title, she's just not in good enough form right now, in my opinion. We may have another Williams-Williams final, just like we have had for the last few years. But that's a ways off, and the women's game is sufficiently topsy-turvy right now, that I wouldn't put a lot of money on that outcome.
For now, there's nothing to do but let the games begin!
Serena Williams, the top seed and defending champion, has something of a tricky draw. It's not as littered with landmines as Nadal's, but it's still going to be a challenge. She opens against Portuguese teen Michelle Larcher De Brito, and then gets will probably get Chakvetadze. After that, she may get Safarova, followed by either Hantuchova, or former champion Sharapova. That's an enticing round of 16 match if I've ever seen one. In the quarters, I expect Serena to find either Aggie Radwanska, Na Li, or Svetlana Kuznetsova. Any of those matches could be tough if Serena's having an off-day, but it's tough to see Serena not making it through to the semifinals.
The second quarter is ostensibly Caroline Wozniacki's, but she hasn't been showing the greatest form lately, so it may be that the sixth seed Sam Stosur is actually the favorite. Stosur's net-rushing, serve-and-volley style of play that she honed during her years as a doubles player should serve her well here. This section also has Azarenka, who showed some of her best form of the year in the past week. Watch for Kimiko Date Krumm to upset 31st seed Alexandra Dulgheru in the first round.
The third quarter is probably the toughest, because in addition to having fourth seed Jelena Jankovic, it also has Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin. One of those three is almost certainly going to make it through to the semis, which is a shame for the other players in this section. Zvonareva and Alona Bondarenko are here, but I don't see them getting through these tougher players. Keep an eye on American teen Alison Riske against Belgian number three (they all ended up in this section) Yanina Wickmayer.
The final quarter of the draw features second-seeded Venus Williams most prominently, of course. But it also has French Open champion Frnacesca Schiavone, former French Open champion Ana Ivanovic, and former Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli. It had Dinara Safina, but she pulled out of the tournament, and her spot was filled by Melanie Oudin. It's a pretty exciting quarter - lots of good players, but other than Venus, not really very many serious threats.
I think it's likely that we'll have Venus Williams playing Justine Henin in one semifinal, Seran Williams playing Sam Stosur in the other. As much as I would like Justine to get her title, she's just not in good enough form right now, in my opinion. We may have another Williams-Williams final, just like we have had for the last few years. But that's a ways off, and the women's game is sufficiently topsy-turvy right now, that I wouldn't put a lot of money on that outcome.
For now, there's nothing to do but let the games begin!
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Wimbledon Preview
I'll be quick to dispatch the finals from this week - I was right on two of them. Justine Henin and Michael Llodra each won, while Tipsarevic and Azarenka weren't so lucky. Still, props to every player who made the finals this week, which will hopefully help them build momentum on the way into the biggest tournament of the year.
Looking at the Wimbledon draw, I have to say - even though the players are mostly the same as were present at the French Open, this field seems to be packed with a lot more exciting match-ups. It could be because fewer players have as much trouble on grass as they do on clay, but it could just be that this is a more appetizing draw. I'll look at the draw in eight sections, rather than by quarter, because otherwise I'd be doing too much analysis in each batch.
Federer's section of the draw doesn't appear to be too problematic. He opens against Alejandro Falla, who is 0-4 against Federer, including two losses already this year and another loss at Wimbledon way back in 2004. That's a pretty safe first round. He'll probably get Nicolas Massu in the second, who has only beaten Federer once, and it was eight years ago. Things may get a bit more interesting in the third round, however. I expect that Tommy Robredo - the player that Federer is seeded to meet at that point - won't make it that far, because he has some tough opposition and has been struggling recently. In his place, Fed might find either Janko Tipsarevic or Arnaud Clement, two players who have played Federer tough in the past and who both love Wimbledon. I'd love to see a rematch of the Fed-Tipsy epic from the Australian Open in 2008, personally. In the round of 16, Federer's opponent will probably be either the grass-court-loving Spaniard Feliciano Lopez or French Open semifinalist Jurgen Melzer, but there's an outside chance that Carsten Ball could make a run. Also in this section, watch for Lithuanian teen Ricardas Bernankis, who won't make it far but should be fun to look for in the future. In the end, there's not a lot of people who could trouble Federer on his way to the quarters, and I see him getting through.
Luckily for Federer, the other top 8 seed in his quarter is Nikolay Davydenko, who both hates playing on grass at Wimbledon and has just come off an injury. It will be quite a feat for him to make it deep in this tournament. He opens against the big, 6'8" South African Kevin Anderson, and that may be all she wrote for Davydenko. Even if he gets past Anderson, he'll face big-hitting countryman Igor Andreev. The other seed that Davydenko would run into first is another player who doesn't love grass courts, Victor Hanescu. While neither of them may make it to the quarters or even the round of 16, the opponent they would find there will be a tough one. That section of the draw has Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka as the top seeds, which is a tough pairing. Their section also has Rainer Schuettler and Benjamin Becker, so whoever comes through there will probably find themselves facing Federer in the quarters. I give Berdych a chance at beating Fed there, but he's the only guy with a real shot.
Novak Djokovic, the third seed, doesn't really have his own quarter. He's found himself in Andy Roddick's quarter. But he still has his own section, and it's a brutal one. He opens against Olivier Rochus, who beat him earlier in the year, and then will probably get Taylor Dent in the second round. Dent loves the grass court season, and he'll be a tough opponent for Novak. Djokovic could get a break in the third round, because Albert Montanes does not love the grass courts at Wimbledon, but in the fourth round, he'll probably get either Lleyton Hewitt or Gael Monfils, and that's just brutal. It's tough to see Djokovic making it out of that section of the draw - in fact, I'd put Hewitt as the favorite to reach the quarterfinals, especially considering his recent win over Federer.
And they're all playing for the chance to - in all likelihood - face last year's finalist Andy Roddick. Roddick could face some stern opposition, but this is - after the U.S. Open - the American's backyard, and grass is - as coach Stefanki said - his "bread and butter." After an essentially inconsequential opening round against Rajeev Ram, Roddick could get recent Eastbourne titlist Michael Llodra in the second round. I think the fact that Llodra is thirty and just won a title a few days ago will make it tough for him to bounce back and face the big-serving American. After that, Roddick will probably get either Kohlschreiber, who beat him at the Australian Open in 2007, or Gabashvili, who just beat him at the French. But I think Roddick is the better player on this surface, and should actually be motivated because he knows these are dangerous guys. He's much more in danger of falling to somebody coming out of nowhere, in my opinion. In the round of sixteen, there are a couple people he could face - Marin Cilic is the seeded player, and Cilic beat an injured Roddick at the Aussie Open this year. But he has to get past Mardy Fish, who has been playing good tennis in recent weeks. The other player to watch here is Ljubicic, who beat Roddick earlier in the year as well, but has been struggling with injury. As a final note, Fish opens against Bernard Tomic, who has a great future ahead of him, but this isn't his tournament.
With all that said, I see Roddick making it through to a rematch with Federer in the semis. Which is what everyone wants anyway.
Moving along to the bottom half of the draw, Fernando Verdasco has his own section as the eighth seed, and while he has a good draw through to the round of sixteen, it does get a lot tougher. He opens against Italian Fabio Fognini and then might get American Michael Russel. His third round opponent could be 32nd seed Julien Benneteau, or one of three other not terribly dangerous opponents. But in the fourth round, he's likely to meet either tenth seed JW Tsonga or big-hitting Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, both of whom represent a dramatic rise in the quality of opponent he would be facing. There's also an outside chance he could meet slumping Swiss #3 Marco Chiudinelli, if he goes on a tear. I think that Verdasco, Tsonga, and Almagro are just about all equally likely to make it out of this section of the draw and into the quarters.
Once they get there, they're almost certain to face Andy Murray. While Roddick may have treated Wimbledon as his own backyard, it really and truly is for Murray. He'll need the support of his countrymen to turn his year around, as he's entering the tournament this year with a significantly worse record than he was last year at this point. While his draw is by no means easy, it could have been a lot worse. He'll probably get Finnish player Jarkko Nieminen in the second round, followed by Frenchman Gilles Simon. Both players are runners and returners, so they play the same style as Murray, just not as well. In his round of 16 match, on the other hand, he might find himself facing Sam Querrey, which is a very different sort of game. If Querrey can get through his first round against Unicef Open titlist Stakhovsky, then I expect that he'll get through his second round opponent and Juan Carlos Ferrero for a meeting with Andy Murray. That should be fun to watch - Querrey just won at Queen's and is desperate for a deep run at a major. This is a good chance for him, but he'll need Murray to be troubled by the pressure.
Even if Murray makes it by Querrey and finds Tsonga, Verdasco, or Almagro in the quarters, they're exactly the sort of player that gives Murray trouble. It would be a tough one for him to get through. It's by no means a guarantee that he'll equal his run to the semifinals from last year.
The final quarter of the draw is pretty much mouth-watering, I have to say. It's a brutal, brutal section. First, Robin Soderling is the sixth seed. He opens against resurgent Robbie Ginepri, and could get Tomaz Bellucci in the third round, after Portuguese Frederico Gil. In the fourth round, he could get Marcos Baghdatis, Jeremy Chardy, David Ferrer, or wildcard Nicolas Kiefer, all tough opponents on this surface. But I think that Soderling should make it through - it does work to his disadvantage that he made the final at the French Open, because he withdrew from any of the grass court warm-up events in the intervening weeks, and he'll need to adjust quickly to the change in the surface.
The bottom part of this quarter belongs to Rafael Nadal, and even though he's considering one of the top two favorites to win the tournament, he'll have to get through an absolutely devastating field to do it. I don't know the last time I saw a player with this cruel a draw. He opens against Kei Nishikori, who hasn't done much this year but is a player with a ton of potential. After that, he could get recently-recovered James Blake, a big-hitting player who's beaten Nadal in a Grand Slam match before. And then maybe Ernests Gulbis, who nearly beat him on clay earlier in the year. And then maybe Isner, who should love the way the grass responds to his serve or Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal at the U.S. Open in 2006. That is an unbelievably tough draw - if those are the players he has to face, followed by Soderling (who can forget their Wimbledon match from a few years ago?), Murray, and Federer/Roddick, then I think I can say that it would be the toughest road to a title that we've seen in a long time.
While there are some really thrilling matches promised down the road, there are also some really fascinating opening rounds, and quite a few feature relatively high seeds that I would say could be in danger. There's also quite a few young, unproven players who have a chance to make some noise. It's worth noting that only three players have made the Wimbledon final since 2004: Nadal, Federer, and Roddick. Also, the last three finals have all been five sets, which I believe is the first time that has happened since 1970-72. It would be great to be able to keep up that level of excitement, but it's still two weeks away. I can't wait!
I'll take a (briefer) look at women's draw tomorrow.
Looking at the Wimbledon draw, I have to say - even though the players are mostly the same as were present at the French Open, this field seems to be packed with a lot more exciting match-ups. It could be because fewer players have as much trouble on grass as they do on clay, but it could just be that this is a more appetizing draw. I'll look at the draw in eight sections, rather than by quarter, because otherwise I'd be doing too much analysis in each batch.
Federer's section of the draw doesn't appear to be too problematic. He opens against Alejandro Falla, who is 0-4 against Federer, including two losses already this year and another loss at Wimbledon way back in 2004. That's a pretty safe first round. He'll probably get Nicolas Massu in the second, who has only beaten Federer once, and it was eight years ago. Things may get a bit more interesting in the third round, however. I expect that Tommy Robredo - the player that Federer is seeded to meet at that point - won't make it that far, because he has some tough opposition and has been struggling recently. In his place, Fed might find either Janko Tipsarevic or Arnaud Clement, two players who have played Federer tough in the past and who both love Wimbledon. I'd love to see a rematch of the Fed-Tipsy epic from the Australian Open in 2008, personally. In the round of 16, Federer's opponent will probably be either the grass-court-loving Spaniard Feliciano Lopez or French Open semifinalist Jurgen Melzer, but there's an outside chance that Carsten Ball could make a run. Also in this section, watch for Lithuanian teen Ricardas Bernankis, who won't make it far but should be fun to look for in the future. In the end, there's not a lot of people who could trouble Federer on his way to the quarters, and I see him getting through.
Luckily for Federer, the other top 8 seed in his quarter is Nikolay Davydenko, who both hates playing on grass at Wimbledon and has just come off an injury. It will be quite a feat for him to make it deep in this tournament. He opens against the big, 6'8" South African Kevin Anderson, and that may be all she wrote for Davydenko. Even if he gets past Anderson, he'll face big-hitting countryman Igor Andreev. The other seed that Davydenko would run into first is another player who doesn't love grass courts, Victor Hanescu. While neither of them may make it to the quarters or even the round of 16, the opponent they would find there will be a tough one. That section of the draw has Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka as the top seeds, which is a tough pairing. Their section also has Rainer Schuettler and Benjamin Becker, so whoever comes through there will probably find themselves facing Federer in the quarters. I give Berdych a chance at beating Fed there, but he's the only guy with a real shot.
Novak Djokovic, the third seed, doesn't really have his own quarter. He's found himself in Andy Roddick's quarter. But he still has his own section, and it's a brutal one. He opens against Olivier Rochus, who beat him earlier in the year, and then will probably get Taylor Dent in the second round. Dent loves the grass court season, and he'll be a tough opponent for Novak. Djokovic could get a break in the third round, because Albert Montanes does not love the grass courts at Wimbledon, but in the fourth round, he'll probably get either Lleyton Hewitt or Gael Monfils, and that's just brutal. It's tough to see Djokovic making it out of that section of the draw - in fact, I'd put Hewitt as the favorite to reach the quarterfinals, especially considering his recent win over Federer.
And they're all playing for the chance to - in all likelihood - face last year's finalist Andy Roddick. Roddick could face some stern opposition, but this is - after the U.S. Open - the American's backyard, and grass is - as coach Stefanki said - his "bread and butter." After an essentially inconsequential opening round against Rajeev Ram, Roddick could get recent Eastbourne titlist Michael Llodra in the second round. I think the fact that Llodra is thirty and just won a title a few days ago will make it tough for him to bounce back and face the big-serving American. After that, Roddick will probably get either Kohlschreiber, who beat him at the Australian Open in 2007, or Gabashvili, who just beat him at the French. But I think Roddick is the better player on this surface, and should actually be motivated because he knows these are dangerous guys. He's much more in danger of falling to somebody coming out of nowhere, in my opinion. In the round of sixteen, there are a couple people he could face - Marin Cilic is the seeded player, and Cilic beat an injured Roddick at the Aussie Open this year. But he has to get past Mardy Fish, who has been playing good tennis in recent weeks. The other player to watch here is Ljubicic, who beat Roddick earlier in the year as well, but has been struggling with injury. As a final note, Fish opens against Bernard Tomic, who has a great future ahead of him, but this isn't his tournament.
With all that said, I see Roddick making it through to a rematch with Federer in the semis. Which is what everyone wants anyway.
Moving along to the bottom half of the draw, Fernando Verdasco has his own section as the eighth seed, and while he has a good draw through to the round of sixteen, it does get a lot tougher. He opens against Italian Fabio Fognini and then might get American Michael Russel. His third round opponent could be 32nd seed Julien Benneteau, or one of three other not terribly dangerous opponents. But in the fourth round, he's likely to meet either tenth seed JW Tsonga or big-hitting Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, both of whom represent a dramatic rise in the quality of opponent he would be facing. There's also an outside chance he could meet slumping Swiss #3 Marco Chiudinelli, if he goes on a tear. I think that Verdasco, Tsonga, and Almagro are just about all equally likely to make it out of this section of the draw and into the quarters.
Once they get there, they're almost certain to face Andy Murray. While Roddick may have treated Wimbledon as his own backyard, it really and truly is for Murray. He'll need the support of his countrymen to turn his year around, as he's entering the tournament this year with a significantly worse record than he was last year at this point. While his draw is by no means easy, it could have been a lot worse. He'll probably get Finnish player Jarkko Nieminen in the second round, followed by Frenchman Gilles Simon. Both players are runners and returners, so they play the same style as Murray, just not as well. In his round of 16 match, on the other hand, he might find himself facing Sam Querrey, which is a very different sort of game. If Querrey can get through his first round against Unicef Open titlist Stakhovsky, then I expect that he'll get through his second round opponent and Juan Carlos Ferrero for a meeting with Andy Murray. That should be fun to watch - Querrey just won at Queen's and is desperate for a deep run at a major. This is a good chance for him, but he'll need Murray to be troubled by the pressure.
Even if Murray makes it by Querrey and finds Tsonga, Verdasco, or Almagro in the quarters, they're exactly the sort of player that gives Murray trouble. It would be a tough one for him to get through. It's by no means a guarantee that he'll equal his run to the semifinals from last year.
The final quarter of the draw is pretty much mouth-watering, I have to say. It's a brutal, brutal section. First, Robin Soderling is the sixth seed. He opens against resurgent Robbie Ginepri, and could get Tomaz Bellucci in the third round, after Portuguese Frederico Gil. In the fourth round, he could get Marcos Baghdatis, Jeremy Chardy, David Ferrer, or wildcard Nicolas Kiefer, all tough opponents on this surface. But I think that Soderling should make it through - it does work to his disadvantage that he made the final at the French Open, because he withdrew from any of the grass court warm-up events in the intervening weeks, and he'll need to adjust quickly to the change in the surface.
The bottom part of this quarter belongs to Rafael Nadal, and even though he's considering one of the top two favorites to win the tournament, he'll have to get through an absolutely devastating field to do it. I don't know the last time I saw a player with this cruel a draw. He opens against Kei Nishikori, who hasn't done much this year but is a player with a ton of potential. After that, he could get recently-recovered James Blake, a big-hitting player who's beaten Nadal in a Grand Slam match before. And then maybe Ernests Gulbis, who nearly beat him on clay earlier in the year. And then maybe Isner, who should love the way the grass responds to his serve or Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal at the U.S. Open in 2006. That is an unbelievably tough draw - if those are the players he has to face, followed by Soderling (who can forget their Wimbledon match from a few years ago?), Murray, and Federer/Roddick, then I think I can say that it would be the toughest road to a title that we've seen in a long time.
While there are some really thrilling matches promised down the road, there are also some really fascinating opening rounds, and quite a few feature relatively high seeds that I would say could be in danger. There's also quite a few young, unproven players who have a chance to make some noise. It's worth noting that only three players have made the Wimbledon final since 2004: Nadal, Federer, and Roddick. Also, the last three finals have all been five sets, which I believe is the first time that has happened since 1970-72. It would be great to be able to keep up that level of excitement, but it's still two weeks away. I can't wait!
I'll take a (briefer) look at women's draw tomorrow.
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