Saturday, July 31, 2010

Week 30 Semifinals

Some big surprises in the quartefinals, today. Two out of three top seeds went down rather tamely, and there were a handful of other upsets as well.

I'll start in Umag, where they had to play eight matches today, after yesterday's rain. Ljubicic managed to beat Ivan Dodig in three sets, but then he didn't have anything left in his tank for Potito Staracce. He almost eked out the second set tiebreak - I believe that he had three set points before he lost the last five in a row to drop the tiebreak 8-6. Jurgen Melzer also seemed to run out of steam, after he beat Jan Hajek while dropping just a single game, he only managed to win five in his second match against Andreas Seppi. All in all, a good day for Italians!

Nikolay Davydenko's loss was a bit tougher for me to understand. He had a day of rest, and his first match against Stephane Robert was easy. But he was never in the match against Juan Ignacio Chela. Chela is a great player, no doubt, and for some reason he has Davydenko's number. The Argentine is now 6-1 against the world number six. Ferrero was the only favorite player who made it through cleanly, and I see him getting through to the final.

Gstaad only had one real upset, but it was a doozy - top seeded Russian Mikhail Youzhny lost to 31-year old Kazakh qualifier Yuri Schukin, who has an 11-20 ATP record in the 11 years he's been a pro. Surely this is his biggest scalp, and quite a shock that Youzhny dropped that match. His road only gets tougher, facing Richard Gasquet in the next round, and then - in all likelihood - Nicolas Almagro in the final. I'd really expect Almagro and Gasquet to meet at that stage, which would be quite an exciting match-up.

In Los Angeles, the only technical upset was Janko Tipsarevic over Marcos Baghdatis, but that was always going to be a close match. Rainier Schuettler nearly managed to beat Sam Querrey, and by all rights should have, but the defending champ just barely managed to eke out a victory - the match ended with four consecutive breaks of serve, and two of those were Querrey breaking the German as he served for the match. It was a high-quality match from the counterpunching veteran, who is one of the oldest players in the top hundred. It's got to be brutal to lose a close match like that, at this stage of his career. But kudos to Sam for finding a way to get through.

Andy Murray had a tight first set against Alejandro Falla, but then cruised through the second after winning the tiebreak. The match between James Blake and Feliciano Lopez was a lot tighter, and James barely ended up losing the match, but it was very, very tight. I hope he'll be encouraged by his performance, which was his strongest showing since he came back from his injury. He would have felt a lot better if he won that match, but Lopez is a tough customer with a big lefty serve. No shame for a somewhat rusty Blake to come off (just barely) second best in that one.

I expect Murray and Querrey to get through to the finals, but if Tipsarevic finishes what Schuettler couldn't, it should be interesting. "Tipsy" beat Murray earlier this year in Dubai, but he has never won a title. He also just got married, which may have given him the grounding he needed to make a breakthrough. We'll see!

Friday, July 30, 2010

Week 30 Quarterfinals

We're through to the quarterfinals, with another three ATP 250 tournaments moving right along. Well, we're almost through to the quarterfinals - in Umag, the rain kept all action off the courts today, so they've got a few matches to get through before the quarterfinals. But that just means more action tomorrow, so we can catch up!

In Gstaad, three out of four seeds remain in the top half of the draw, and only one of four in the bottom half. It's interesting - top seed Mikhail Youzhny should breeze through 31-year old Kazakh qualifier Yuri Schukin, while the match-up between Gasquet and Montanes is one of the most interesting matches on offer tomorrow. I see Gasquet getting through that one, and a Youzhny-Gasquet semi would be an excellent clash. In the bottom half, there are three huge-hitting players (Almagro, Chardy, and Andreev) plus Gimeno-Traver. I would bet on Almagro and Andreev getting through those matches to the semis. It's worth noting that Andreev's match in the round of 16 against Marco Chiudinelli was one of the best matches of the tournament, with two tiebreak sets necessary for the Russian to get through.

In Los Angeles, the most interesting story so far was the absolute implosion of Ernests Gulbis. He was dominating Alejandro Falla, up a set and with multiple break point chances in the second, before he just imploded, lost a point due to racket abuse, and then lost the set. He was up an early break in the third before beginning to self-destruct again. Falla actually served for the match, only to get broken. But in the tiebreak, Gulbis fell apart again - eventually losing the match 10-8. He is definitely beginning to remind me of Safin, in his temperament and skill. This was his first tournament back after a layoff, so one might expect a bit of rust. Gulbis was not too down on himself in his post-match interview, and I expect he'll be back for the rest of the U.S. Open series.

Beyond that, it's also good to see James Blake and Andy Murray in action - and they're one round away from a semifinal meeting which could be a lot of fun to watch. Before that, Murray will have to beat Falla (which I expect should be no problem) and Blake will have to get through Feliciano Lopez. That's the toughest match he's had since coming back from injury, but it's winnable, the way he's playing so far. In the bottom half of the draw, two underachieving but very talented and fun players are meeting in the first quarter - Janko Tipsarevic and Marcos Baghdatis, which is something of a pick-em, since neither one has been playing particularly well lately, and Sam Querrey meets Rainer Schuettler. They've already played twice this year, with Schuettler winning at the Aussie Open, while Querrey won in Queens, where he went on to win the tournament. Querrey didn't start great against Kevin Anderson in his last match, but he finished off in supremely good form, winning the third set to love. I like him against the German vet.

It's tough to know what's going to happen in Umag, since half of the players in action tomorrow will have to play two matches in one day to get to the semis. Normally, I'd favor Melzer and Ljubicic, but the Croat may not be be able to recover as quickly as he would like, and Melzer has played so much tennis lately, he must be jaded. Also, the Umag draw did an interesting thing where they played two matches each from the top and bottom of the draw on the two days of the second round, which puts the other pair at a disadvantage when there's a rain delay like this. Whoever wins between Davydenko-Chela and Ferrero-Dolgopolov (I like the first player in each case) will be much fresher for the semis. Don't be shocked to see a Davydenko Ferrero final come Sunday.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Week 29 Finals and Week 30 Preview

Really interesting finals this week. Melzer made his first final of the season (in singles) and as the last seeded player, up against a second-time finalist Andrey Golubev whose ranking was south of 80th in the world. Melzer was the big favorite, but Golubev followed up an astounding week by blowing the French open semifinalist off the court. This week has been a revelation for the Kazakh player - it's amazing to me that he's had such an unremarkable career up to this point. He's on my list of players to watch - if he can play like this, he'll be in the top 20 in no time.

In Atlanta, Mardy Fish continues his stunning run. He's now won two tournaments in a row for the first time in his career - that's a ten match winning streak for Mardy. John Isner played a tough match, but he just ran out of gas. Conditions did not favor the tall American, who had played all of his matches in the heat of the day, and he couldn't quite close the deal, though he did get Fish to a third-set tiebreak. A really strong performance by both players. Fish is headed back to the top of the game, as well. It'll be fascinating to see how he does in this year's U.S. Open series.

Looking ahead to this week's tournaments, there are two more clay-court events in Europe, and one more hard-court even in America. These are almost the last clay-court tournaments this season, with one lone exception in September. So all of the clay-court specialists are trying to get some action in - in Gstaad, we've got Richard Gasquet back in action, as well as Youzhny, Almagro, Bellucci, and Montanes. Unseeded players to watch are Andreev, Nieminen, and last week's titlist Andrey Golubev.

In Umag, Davydenko is the top seed, but he's still trying to get back on track after his injury lay-off. Ferrero and Melzer are here as well, but all in all, the Croatian tournament has a weaker field than in Switzerland. Olivier Rochus opens against Philipp Petzschner, which is one of the more interesting match-ups, but I think this tournament may not heat up until the third round or so.

The third and final tournament taking place this week was going to feature Novak Djokovic, but he pulled out - somewhat mysteriously. Fortunately for the tournament, Andy Murray took a wildcard, so that should be interesting. Murray hasn't won a title yet this year, and that's saying something. He hasn't even made a final since the Australian Open. Ernests Gulbis is back from his layoff this week as well, and he could be Murray's third round opponent, if he gets past Teimuraz Gabashvili in the second round. The second quarter of the draw has Mardy Fish, who has been playing great, but he has to run out of gas eventually. He may have to get past Feliciano Lopez, or perhaps James Blake, if he can finally put a few matches together. Sam Querrey and Marcos Baghdatis are also in action in the bottom half of the draw. The winner of the U.S. Open series gets extra bonus money at the U.S. Open, so these tournaments can be important.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Week 29 Finals

The two finals taking place tomorrow are both looking like good matches, and I got three out of the four competitors correct. Golubev and Melzer face off in Hamburg - it's Golubev's second final of his career, and Melzer is the only player who can fight off whatever bad juju was bringing down the seeds throughout the week. Despite his recent run of excellent form, the veteran Melzer only has two titles to his name. He's made eight finals, so that's not exactly an encouraging record. This should be an interesting match, because if Golubev can feel his racket on the ball and finds a way to hit through Melzer, he may just come off with a victory. Of course, Golubev has just come out of nowhere in this tournament, while Melzer has been playing great lately. In a pressure situation, Melzer's confidence may just carry him through to the finish, even if Golubev comes out playing well. It'll be tough for the young Kazakh to perform at the level he'll need to on such a big stage.

And speaking of form, Mardy Fish is absolutely on fire. He pulled out a really tough win over top seed Andy Roddick today, thanks in no small part to his increased fitness since his surgery. This resurgence has been in the works all year, but Fish is currently on a nine-match winning streak, and he is playing as well as I've seen him. Unfortunately for him, the guy he faces tomorrow is one of the best at throwing players off their rhythm. John Isner has some interesting x-factors going for him, as well. Playing in his first tournament since becoming a part of tennis history, he's into the final. He's also in his own backyard, having played NCAA tennis for the Georga Bulldogs. It will be interesting to see if Fish can get his game going, with Isner banging serves past him - if Mardy can neutralize Isner's serve, and he did that pretty well against Roddick - then he'll come away with the victory, for sure. But if Isner serves as well as he's capable, keeps Mardy from getting any rhythm on return, he could catch Fish on an off-game or get to a tiebreak - and at that point, anything can happen.

Both of these matches mean a lot to all of the players involved, and there are some interesting storylines at play. And the summer season is just getting started!

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Week 29 Semifinals

The exodus of seeds in continuing at the International German Open in Hamburg. Tomaz Bellucci lost in an amazingly tight three set match to Andreas Seppi, 6-7, 7-5, 5-7. Seppi ran away with the first set tiebreak, 7-0 and that was a big decider in the match. Bellucci fought hard, though. Juan Carlos Ferrero also lost today, but he mostly ran out of steam. He won the first set in a tiebreak, but he appeared to be having trouble with injuries by the end of the match, and German Florian Mayer took up the German cause with a great deal of elan. He has an unorthodox style of play, but when he's on, he's a lot of fun to watch. I like that jumping two-handed backhand - you may have seen Marat Safin or Gilles Simon do it, but Mayer does it as well. He got a bit of help from an either exhausted or hobbled Ferrero, but he played strong tennis to get the win.

In the semis, Mayer faces Andrey Golubev, who played unbelievable tennis again in his victory over friend Denis Istomin. Golubev has been on tour for a while and hasn't really done much of consequence, but watching him play this week has been something of a revelation. There's no reason this guy couldn't be in the top 20, if he could maintain this level of play. He displayed really spectacular hitting from every part of the court in his wins over Davydenko and again today. I'd like to see him keep playing this way for a longer stretch of time.

Seppi gets to play the last seed in the draw - Wimbledon doubles champion and French Open singles semifinalist Jurgen Melzer, who would be the new tournament favorite, if it were for the fact that some sort of curse had descended on every other seeded player this tournament. Seppi will be more exhausted than Starace was, but Seppi also has the potential to be more dangerous. I'm expecting a Melzer-Golubev final, but anything can happen, really.

In Atlanta, Americans are continuing to do well. John Isner just blitzed Michael Russell today, a complete contrast to their match earlier in their, where Isner needed to take two tiebreaks to win. Today, he was absolutely on fire, while Russell couldn't quite get his game to work. If Isner plays that way tomorrow, Kevin Anderson is in trouble - Anderson is another tall, big-serving guy, but I think that Isner has shown he's more than just a serve in recent weeks. I see him through to the final.

The other semifinal is much more interesting, as it features Mardy Fish against Andy Roddick. Roddick has a dominant record over Fish, winning 9 of their 10 matches, and Fish's only victory came from a Roddick retirement, way back in 2003. However, Fish is on an absolute roll. He made the final at Queens, won the tournament in Newport, and has blitzed through his first three rounds in Atlanta. He's won a set by 6-1 or better in each match. On the other hand, Roddick has struggled in both of his matches, losing a tiebreak to Rajeev Ram and losing the first set to Xavier Malisse today. Is current form going to trump history, here? This is probably Fish's best chance to get a legitimate win over the U.S. number one in years, so that should be a fascinating match. I think either one could meet Isner in the final.

It should be a fun day of tennis.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Week 29 Quarterfinals

It's been an interesting week in tennis - the Hamburg tennis tournament has been experiencing an absolute exodus of the seeded players up through the quarterfinals. Despite 16 seeds, all of which got a first-round bye, only three seeded players made it to the quarterfinals: Juan Carlos Ferrero, Jurgen Melzer, and Tomaz Bellucci. The remaining spots are filled out by some mid-to-lower tier players who have played some great tennis to get this far. Kazakhstan player Andrey Golubev just blew Nikolay Davydenko off the court today - he's still trying to get his season back on track. Maybe the American hard-court season will treat him better.

The quarterfinal match-ups may not look like great matches at first glance, but the lower-ranked players who made it this far have played some great games to get this far, and the seeded players have not done very well, thus far. Will the remaining three be able to turn the tide?

Ferrero, the most accomplished player left in the tournament, plays the last German. Florian Mayer has a chance, but he'll have to play his best to keep the local hope alive. The other two seeds both play Italians, with Melzer - the player with the best current form coming into the tournament - playing Potito Starace, and Bellucci - who probably has the brightest future of the players left - playing Andreas Seppi. I have to pick the favorites in all three of these matches, despite the problems they've had thus far. The fourth match between an Uzbek and Kazakh is an interesting one, and based on their performances today, I'd pick Golubev over Istomin, but it could go either way.

In Atlanta, the tournament has been going a bit more according to the proper script. The Americans have been dominating the tourney, with five of the eight quarterfinal spots going to local boys. The only one who had a chance but couldn't quite make it was Donald Young, who fell to Kevin Anderson in the last round.

John Isner and Michael Russell could not be more different as tennis players - their contrast of styles is interesting. They played an amazing match earlier this year, but Isner has gone on to play better tennis since their last meeting in the spring. I'd pick him over Russell. The other all-American match-up is Mardy Fish against Taylor Dent. Fish has already ousted American Robby Ginepri, and he's been playing like he was back when he was in the top 20, so it'll be tough for Dent to come through this one.

The most interesting quarterfinal is between Roddick and Malisse, who played at the final in Atlanta nine years ago, when it was on clay. That was Roddick's first title ever. Roddick didn't play great against Ram today, but he still won everything pretty comfortably (except the second-set tiebreak). It was just enough of a tight match for Roddick to likely lift his game against the potentially-dangerous Belgian.

The fourth match-up is between Kevin Anderson and Lukas Lacko, who got an easy match against a lackluster Lleyton Hewitt in the round of 16 to make it to the quarters. I'll take Anderson in this one, pretty cleanly. Should be fun to watch, though - it's a good day of tennis, in both the U.S. and Germany.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Week 28 Wrap-up and Week 29 Preview

The finals that we wrapped up today were a study in contrasts - in Bastad, hometown (and on-paper) favorite Robin Soderling lost a tightly-contested match to Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, a big win for Almagro, who hadn't won a title since February of 2009. Almagro is a guy who can hit anyone off the court, if his shots are landing. Soderling used to be the kind of player that Almagro is now - incredibly powerful, but not very consistent. Almagro has the game to be where Soderling is now, if he can just figure out how to be as consistent as Robin has become, week-in and week-out. He managed to best him today though, and that's what mattered.

The other final of the day was more anti-climactic, as Gael Monfils was forced to retire with an injured ankle against Albert Montanes. That's a shame, because that would have been a great match-up. Gael has trouble at the last stage of tournaments - he is now 2-8 in finals. Credit Montanes for putting together a great week, but that has to be disappointing for Monfils.

Looking ahead to next week, there are two interesting events. The first, the continuation of the second clay-court season, takes place in Hamburg: the International German Open is an ATP 500 even on clay. This section of the season is still odd to me, but this tournament features some great players. Davydenko is still in Europe, hoping to get his post-injury year back on track as the top seed. Basically, all of the clay court stalwarts are back for this tournament - with the exception of Soderling, who was just playing Bastad because he's Swedish. Of course, this event used to be the Hamburg Masters before it was downgraded and moved so Shanghai could be put into that tier. The tournament organizers just lost an appeal to dispute that downgrade, so it'll be interesting to see how the tournament goes. It should still be a fun event, though.

First-round matches to watch are Chiudinelli-Chardy, Nieminen-Christophe Rochus, and actually about a half dozen other appetizing match-ups between solid clay court players. There aren't any of the really big guns playing this tournament this year, but there's a lot of good players, so it would be a fun tournament to see.

That said, it's tough for me to get too pumped about the second swing of the clay-court season in Europe, because I'm gearing up for the American summer hard courts, which are getting underway this week in Atlanta. This is the first year of this tournament in Atlanta, as they got the tournament from Indianapolis, when it closed due to bad financial pressure last year. Fortunately for Atlanta, the field (which was already pretty strong in American players) got a huge boost when Andy Roddick took a wildcard. That, plus hometown boy John Isner's recent publicity at Wimbledon, should give the tournament a pretty good first year.

Most of the game's top US players are here, with the exception of Sam Querrey. Taylor Dent and James Blake open against each other, which may be a good match, but it's a shame they have to meet at such an early stage. Donald Young opens against Dudi Sela, and Michael Russell gets Benjamin Becker. Roddick should be the favorite in this tournament, but he only stands to gain 100 ranking points, and that's if he wins the whole thing. He already has a win and a final at other 250 tournaments this year, so I imagine his appearance has more to do with building some form, helping out the new tournament, and probably a hefty appearance fee as well. I'm looking forward to seeing him in action on U.S. Soil again, as his European campaign was pretty lackluster, after a stellar run in the earlier part of the year.