Well, the upset bug continues as we've taken the tennis action across the country. In the first day of second round action, which is the first match for the men's seeds, a full third of the seeded players lost. Some of these wins were not all that surprising, as number 30 Viktor Troicki losing to wildcard David Nalbandian, but some were absolute shockers, as number 2 Novak Djokovic losing the shortest player in the top 100, 29-year old Olivier Rochus from Belgium.
Thirty-second seed Julien Benneteau also lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky, but that's not too much of an upset, as he was the second-lowest-ranked seed. Last week's champion, Ivan Ljubicic, was forced to retire in his match against Benjamin Becker, even though he was up a set and a game. Well, it looks like the Croat was feeling his 31 years again, after the thrill of winning last week's title wore off.
The last seeded player to be upset was one of many American players to put in an absolutely dismal showing at the last American hardcourt tournament of the season. Sam Querrey lost to Frenchman Jeremy Chardy after winning the first set. In addition to Querrey, Blake lost to Tomaz Bellucci, also after being up a set. Taylor Dent lost to Nadal, but that's not really that surprising a result. And Melanie Oudin was demolished by Vera Zvonareva 6-1, 6-2.
The only Americans who managed their way to victories were Andy Roddick, who beat Igor Andreev in a routine match, and John Isner, who happened to be playing in a match where it was guaranteed an American would win, as he was facing Michael Russel. He was actually outplayed by Russel and won 14 fewer points over the course of the three set match, but he still managed to win two tiebreaks. Credit Isner as the only American who could find a way to win on a day where conditions were tough and the fans must have been little help. With so many rain delays and crappy weather, anyone who was expecting an excited crowd was disappointed.
It's a shame, because for most of these players, this is their best surface, and this was their best chance for a good result until the middle of the summer. One of the good things about the upset bug that was going around the grounds is that it was Andy Roddick's (formerly Novak Djokovic's) quarter of the draw that was decimated, giving Roddick another good chance at a deep run.
There are some good matches tomorrow, and a few more chances to continue the unbelievable run of upsets that has been the order of the day for the past few weeks. Andy Murray plays Mardy Fish, and it will be interesting to if the upset bug or the American failure bug is more at play in that match. Verdasco has been on a pretty poor run since his hard-court title last month, and he plays another small firecracker like Rochus, Israel's Dudi Sela.
The top seeds are also in action. Svetlana Kuznetsova, who barely survived her first match, plays 27th seed Agnes Szavay of Hungary. Look for a potential upset, there. Roger Federer plays lucky loser Nicolas Lapentti, but don't be on the lookout for that match to end in an upset. It's also interesting to note that Rafael Nadal teams up with a partner I've never seen before to play the Bryan Brothers in doubles tomorrow. They lost in their first outing in Indian Wells, so they're hoping to make a better run at this tournament.
Two possible upsets tomorrow feature recently underachieving seeds taking on a couple of young guns, as Gilles Simon takes on Horacio Zeballos and Tomas Berdych takes on Thiemo De Bakker. Outside chance of an upset in either match. Also watch out for Kevin Anderson taking on Stan Wawrinka, Michael Berrer against Feliciano Lopez, and an extremely low possibility for Australian veteran Peter Luczak to upset Robin Soderling.
It almost seems impossible for this tournament to be as crazy as last week in Indian Wells, but we're off to a good start.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Miami Preview
I know that action has already started in Miami, but none of the seeds have played yet, so we'll take a look at their placement in the draw. Even if the last Masters Series event ended in a huge surprise, but the winner was still seeded.
Federer, in his loss to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, didn't give the Cypriot much credit. Baggy ended up in the Swiss's quarter once again, so he may get a chance at a rematch. But there are some other players there for Federer to worry about. It's unlikely that Federer will be challenged until the fourth round, where he may face either Gilles Simon or Tomas Berdych. His quartefinal opponent may be Baghdatis, Verdasco, or Cilic. All of these guys are dangerous players on hard courts, and if Federer isn't quite as motivated to play at these Masters Series events as he once was, anyone could play a great match and score an upset. Or he may want to forget about what happened in Miami as quickly as possible and steamroll his way to the semis. Also possible.
Andy Murray's quarter is opposite Federer's and it doesn't look much easier. Murray could get Fish in the second round, then Feliciano Lopez in the third. After that, he may get Wawrinka or Youzhny. That's a damn tough eighth of the draw to find yourself in. And if he makes it through all that to reach the quarters, he'll likely either get a rematch with Robin Soderling, or he'll play big-hitting Fernando Gonzalez. Janko Tipsarevic, who beat Murray in Dubai, is also here, but I don't see him getting another shot at Murray. That's a tough road to the semis, only to possibly find Federer there.
I think the reason that all of the top seeds got relatively difficult draws is in part because of the depth of men's tennis, but also because a lot of really top-notch players are currently underranked, and can end up anywhere in a draw like this. Nadal opens against Taylor Dent and could get David Nalbandian in the third round, as an example of just how far some players are underranked. After that, he may get either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic - just about as different as two playing styles can get, so that's tough to get ready for, when you're thinking ahead. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be one of two players - it could JW Tsonga or big-hitting American John Isner. Isner was lucky to find himself in Tsonga's section, as the Frenchman has trouble dealing with the really big servers.
The final quarter of the draw is Djokovic's, and while I was hoping for the Djoker to find Richard Gasquet in the second round, Olivier Rochus spoiled that. I thought that he may get James Blake in the third round as well, but Blake has his hands full with Serbian teenager Filip Krajinovic. There are still plenty of tough players in his little section, though. Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro can both hit anyone off the court on the right day, and Djokovic's seeded third-round opponent, Tomaz Bellucci, is still looking for his breakthrough win. If Djokovic got the rest he needed in the past week, he should make it through, but otherwise, who knows?
Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent is seeded to be Andy Roddick, last week's losing finalist. The good news for Andy is that there's only one player in his 1/8 of the draw that should really threaten him. The bad news is that player is last week's titlist, Ivan Ljubicic. But keep in mind that Ljubicic just turned 31, so it may be tough for him to keep up such a fantastic run of form for another week and a half. Roddick will I'm sure be hoping that Tommy Robredo upsets Ljubicic in order to get another drubbing from Roddick in the round of sixteen.
In the last tournament, upsets were the order of the day. Will the top players restore order here in Miami, or will we have another surprise set of finalists?
Federer, in his loss to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, didn't give the Cypriot much credit. Baggy ended up in the Swiss's quarter once again, so he may get a chance at a rematch. But there are some other players there for Federer to worry about. It's unlikely that Federer will be challenged until the fourth round, where he may face either Gilles Simon or Tomas Berdych. His quartefinal opponent may be Baghdatis, Verdasco, or Cilic. All of these guys are dangerous players on hard courts, and if Federer isn't quite as motivated to play at these Masters Series events as he once was, anyone could play a great match and score an upset. Or he may want to forget about what happened in Miami as quickly as possible and steamroll his way to the semis. Also possible.
Andy Murray's quarter is opposite Federer's and it doesn't look much easier. Murray could get Fish in the second round, then Feliciano Lopez in the third. After that, he may get Wawrinka or Youzhny. That's a damn tough eighth of the draw to find yourself in. And if he makes it through all that to reach the quarters, he'll likely either get a rematch with Robin Soderling, or he'll play big-hitting Fernando Gonzalez. Janko Tipsarevic, who beat Murray in Dubai, is also here, but I don't see him getting another shot at Murray. That's a tough road to the semis, only to possibly find Federer there.
I think the reason that all of the top seeds got relatively difficult draws is in part because of the depth of men's tennis, but also because a lot of really top-notch players are currently underranked, and can end up anywhere in a draw like this. Nadal opens against Taylor Dent and could get David Nalbandian in the third round, as an example of just how far some players are underranked. After that, he may get either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic - just about as different as two playing styles can get, so that's tough to get ready for, when you're thinking ahead. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be one of two players - it could JW Tsonga or big-hitting American John Isner. Isner was lucky to find himself in Tsonga's section, as the Frenchman has trouble dealing with the really big servers.
The final quarter of the draw is Djokovic's, and while I was hoping for the Djoker to find Richard Gasquet in the second round, Olivier Rochus spoiled that. I thought that he may get James Blake in the third round as well, but Blake has his hands full with Serbian teenager Filip Krajinovic. There are still plenty of tough players in his little section, though. Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro can both hit anyone off the court on the right day, and Djokovic's seeded third-round opponent, Tomaz Bellucci, is still looking for his breakthrough win. If Djokovic got the rest he needed in the past week, he should make it through, but otherwise, who knows?
Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent is seeded to be Andy Roddick, last week's losing finalist. The good news for Andy is that there's only one player in his 1/8 of the draw that should really threaten him. The bad news is that player is last week's titlist, Ivan Ljubicic. But keep in mind that Ljubicic just turned 31, so it may be tough for him to keep up such a fantastic run of form for another week and a half. Roddick will I'm sure be hoping that Tommy Robredo upsets Ljubicic in order to get another drubbing from Roddick in the round of sixteen.
In the last tournament, upsets were the order of the day. Will the top players restore order here in Miami, or will we have another surprise set of finalists?
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Indian Wells Wrap-up
The stream of upsets that was going on all week in Indian Wells continued on finals day. Both the men's and women's finals ended in upsets, with two former top players who everybody had written-off as not having any real chance lately upsetting two players who were really supposed to get back to the top, now that their top competition was gone.
The women's final ended as Jelena Jankovic, the last big thing, beat the next big thing, Caroline Wozniacki. Jankovic hadn't won a big title in quite some time and hadn't been playing that great, so this was a surprising run for her. On the other hand, everyone expected Wozniacki to win this tournament, after the other top contenders dropped in early rounds. Well done for Jankovic, who may be ready for a return to form. The upset on the men's side was even more surprising, though.
Ivan Ljubicic, in his fourth appearance in a Master's series final, won his first title. He beat Andy Roddick, who had a cupcake draw to get to the final, while the Croatian had to beat Djokovic and Nadal to make it there. In a happy birthday to the recently-turned 31-year old, Ljubicic played great, and while he may have been just ever-so-slightly outplayed by Roddick from the ground throughout much of the match, it didn't matter when it came down to tiebreaks, and the match did. Roddick went down 0-40 in his first service game, but didn't face a break point for the rest of the match. Ljubicic faced 3 break points in the first set and 3 in the second, but it didn't matter. Nobody could convert.
During the tiebreaks, Roddick made a few more mistakes and couldn't serve as solidly as Ljubicic. While the American was leading the tour in tiebreakers won coming in to this tournament, he couldn't win either in the final, and Ljubicic went home with his maiden master's series title. Credit to the Croatian, who did something that absolutely no one gave him a chance to do at this point in his career. Literally, I don't see a single draw out of 17,000 on the ATP World Draw Challenge Circuit that picked Ljubicic to win it all.
But on the other hand, it's really a missed opportunity for Roddick, who may win another Master's Series shield in his career, but he will never get an easier chance than this one. His draw broke in every way he could have preferred, but he still couldn't seal the deal. I hope that the American closely examines the match to see if he was happy with his game. I'm not sure if he could have played differently in terms of strategy - it was just in the execution. He was out-aced by Ljubicic and basically outplayed in both tiebreaks. He may have just been tight, while the elder Croat could swing freely.
In any case, it'll be interesting to see how both do this coming week in Miami. The draw's out now, and I'll do an analysis tomorrow.
The women's final ended as Jelena Jankovic, the last big thing, beat the next big thing, Caroline Wozniacki. Jankovic hadn't won a big title in quite some time and hadn't been playing that great, so this was a surprising run for her. On the other hand, everyone expected Wozniacki to win this tournament, after the other top contenders dropped in early rounds. Well done for Jankovic, who may be ready for a return to form. The upset on the men's side was even more surprising, though.
Ivan Ljubicic, in his fourth appearance in a Master's series final, won his first title. He beat Andy Roddick, who had a cupcake draw to get to the final, while the Croatian had to beat Djokovic and Nadal to make it there. In a happy birthday to the recently-turned 31-year old, Ljubicic played great, and while he may have been just ever-so-slightly outplayed by Roddick from the ground throughout much of the match, it didn't matter when it came down to tiebreaks, and the match did. Roddick went down 0-40 in his first service game, but didn't face a break point for the rest of the match. Ljubicic faced 3 break points in the first set and 3 in the second, but it didn't matter. Nobody could convert.
During the tiebreaks, Roddick made a few more mistakes and couldn't serve as solidly as Ljubicic. While the American was leading the tour in tiebreakers won coming in to this tournament, he couldn't win either in the final, and Ljubicic went home with his maiden master's series title. Credit to the Croatian, who did something that absolutely no one gave him a chance to do at this point in his career. Literally, I don't see a single draw out of 17,000 on the ATP World Draw Challenge Circuit that picked Ljubicic to win it all.
But on the other hand, it's really a missed opportunity for Roddick, who may win another Master's Series shield in his career, but he will never get an easier chance than this one. His draw broke in every way he could have preferred, but he still couldn't seal the deal. I hope that the American closely examines the match to see if he was happy with his game. I'm not sure if he could have played differently in terms of strategy - it was just in the execution. He was out-aced by Ljubicic and basically outplayed in both tiebreaks. He may have just been tight, while the elder Croat could swing freely.
In any case, it'll be interesting to see how both do this coming week in Miami. The draw's out now, and I'll do an analysis tomorrow.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Indian Wells Final
Two upsets in the men's semifinals today! In fact, all four matches that were played today ended in upsets.
In the women's doubles final, Peschke and Srebotnik defeated the last seeds remaining, as they beat Petrova and Stosur in a match tiebreak. Good win for the Russian (I believe) pair, since I'm sure that nobody picked them to be holding the trophy today.
In the men's doubles final, another unseeded pair beat the last seeds still standing, but it was even more surprising. A wildcard team beat top seeds and top-ranked Nestor and Zimonjic. But of course, that can happen when half of that team is Rafael Nadal. And especially when Nadal is frustrated from just losing in the semifinals a few hours before. It's some comfort to take home the doubles title, at least, but I'm sure he would have rather defended his singles title.
Instead, he was beat in three sets by Ivan Ljubicic. Nadal looked to be in control, up a set and not giving Ljubicic a chance. At that point, he dropped serve out of nowhere and the Croat took advantage, winning the second set. The third set went to a tiebreak, eventually, even though Nadal had to claw his way back from a break down. The tiebreak was all Ljubicic, though, and the tall, big-serving former world-number three is into the final, after just celebrating his 31st birthday yesterday. A great week for him, but he has played some tough players when they were not at their best - wins over Djokovic and Nadal are always to be treasured, but particularly today, he didn't win thanks to his stellar play alone.
Of course, his opponent in the final, which turned out to be Andy Roddick, had an even easier road. He didn't really play anyone of consequence until the semis, where he faced a red-hot Robin Soderling. This was also not the greatest match, with neither player seemingly able to take the initiative. Roddick was up a set and a break before he gave it back, and he was up a break in the third set early on before giving it back again. It looked like Soderling couldn't lose the match if he tried, until he was broken once more and Roddick served it out. Third time's a charm, huh?
Roddick will face Ljubicic, and this really caps a week where everything that could have broken his way did so. Any opponent who looked like they might trouble him was taken out of commission by another, less threatening opponent. Soderling was the only opponent that Roddick has been generally troubled with in the past, and he did't show up with his best stuff. Roddick now takes a 7-3 advantage against Ljubicic into the final, as well as 4-3 record in MS finals compared to Ljube's 0-3.
Really, Roddick is never going to get a chance this good to win a Master's Series title ever again. It is basically a statistical impossibility. So many things have gone the way Roddick would have had them go, that if he doesn't win tomorrow, then there are no more Master's Series shields in the future for him. But if he does win tomorrow, this could be a good dose of momentum.
Every stat for this final is in Roddick's favor. The head-to-head, the record in finals, the performance so far this year, and this is not to mention the intangibles. As an American - the lone American at the top tier of the game - he will have the crowd's support against a relatively unknown and not particularly charismatic Ljubicic. If Roddick was playing Nadal, the Spaniard may have just as many - if not more - fans, but the Croatian contingent is going to be tough to make out in the crowd of red, white, and blue.
In the women's doubles final, Peschke and Srebotnik defeated the last seeds remaining, as they beat Petrova and Stosur in a match tiebreak. Good win for the Russian (I believe) pair, since I'm sure that nobody picked them to be holding the trophy today.
In the men's doubles final, another unseeded pair beat the last seeds still standing, but it was even more surprising. A wildcard team beat top seeds and top-ranked Nestor and Zimonjic. But of course, that can happen when half of that team is Rafael Nadal. And especially when Nadal is frustrated from just losing in the semifinals a few hours before. It's some comfort to take home the doubles title, at least, but I'm sure he would have rather defended his singles title.
Instead, he was beat in three sets by Ivan Ljubicic. Nadal looked to be in control, up a set and not giving Ljubicic a chance. At that point, he dropped serve out of nowhere and the Croat took advantage, winning the second set. The third set went to a tiebreak, eventually, even though Nadal had to claw his way back from a break down. The tiebreak was all Ljubicic, though, and the tall, big-serving former world-number three is into the final, after just celebrating his 31st birthday yesterday. A great week for him, but he has played some tough players when they were not at their best - wins over Djokovic and Nadal are always to be treasured, but particularly today, he didn't win thanks to his stellar play alone.
Of course, his opponent in the final, which turned out to be Andy Roddick, had an even easier road. He didn't really play anyone of consequence until the semis, where he faced a red-hot Robin Soderling. This was also not the greatest match, with neither player seemingly able to take the initiative. Roddick was up a set and a break before he gave it back, and he was up a break in the third set early on before giving it back again. It looked like Soderling couldn't lose the match if he tried, until he was broken once more and Roddick served it out. Third time's a charm, huh?
Roddick will face Ljubicic, and this really caps a week where everything that could have broken his way did so. Any opponent who looked like they might trouble him was taken out of commission by another, less threatening opponent. Soderling was the only opponent that Roddick has been generally troubled with in the past, and he did't show up with his best stuff. Roddick now takes a 7-3 advantage against Ljubicic into the final, as well as 4-3 record in MS finals compared to Ljube's 0-3.
Really, Roddick is never going to get a chance this good to win a Master's Series title ever again. It is basically a statistical impossibility. So many things have gone the way Roddick would have had them go, that if he doesn't win tomorrow, then there are no more Master's Series shields in the future for him. But if he does win tomorrow, this could be a good dose of momentum.
Every stat for this final is in Roddick's favor. The head-to-head, the record in finals, the performance so far this year, and this is not to mention the intangibles. As an American - the lone American at the top tier of the game - he will have the crowd's support against a relatively unknown and not particularly charismatic Ljubicic. If Roddick was playing Nadal, the Spaniard may have just as many - if not more - fans, but the Croatian contingent is going to be tough to make out in the crowd of red, white, and blue.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Indian Wells Semifinals
With the Indian Wells semis set, there was only one really noteworthy result to speak in the quarterfinals. Robin Soderling absolutely blitzed Andy Murray. In a match that everyone expected would be either a cakewalk for Murray or a tight win for the Swede, Soderling nearly got away with hardly any effort at all, and still managed a victory without too much trouble.
In his first service game, Soderling faced three four points. However, after managing to save all of those, he went on to demolish Murray in the first set, allowing him only one game. Murray barely won a point on Soderling's serve after that. The second set looked to be going the same way, with Soderling up a break and given three break chances - match points - with Murray serving at 3-5. The Scot somehow saved them all and seemed rejuvenated, as he broke Soderling while he was serving for the match and brought it to a tiebreak. However, just when it looked like the momentum was about to turn, Soderling recovered from a momentary lapse and took the tiebreak 7-4.
So now the semis are set. Nadal, who is impressing with his performance here, has a nearly sure win against Ivan Ljubicic, who has played well this week, but hasn't faced terribly strong opposition. Nadal, on the other hand, has beaten a bevy of good players, and considering that he was questionable with his knee injury, his run towards defending his title is nothing short of spectacular. He hasn't won a title in ten months, and to come back at a Masters Event would be superb.
Soderling gets Andy Roddick in the semis, who brushed aside Robredo as easily as he usually does. It seems that everything is breaking well for the American, whose tougher opponents (according to the draw) stumbled at various stage and set up much easier matches to get him back to the semis, here. But he'll have his first real test against Soderling, who has never lost to Roddick in their two meetings. Roddick has never made a final in Indian Wells, and he probably won't get a better shot than this for the rest of his career. But he'll need to play much more aggressively than Murray did today, and he can hope that Soderling doesn't serve at his best.
For the other matches to look forward to, Caroline Wozniacki will face Jelena Jankovic for the women's final, which is a chance for the Serb to get back on track at a fairly major tournament. Tough to bet against Wozniacki, though.
The doubles final also has Rafael Nadal in it, which just hows how spectacularly he's playing this week. He'll face the top seeds, Nestor and Zimonjic, with his parter Marc Lopez.
In his first service game, Soderling faced three four points. However, after managing to save all of those, he went on to demolish Murray in the first set, allowing him only one game. Murray barely won a point on Soderling's serve after that. The second set looked to be going the same way, with Soderling up a break and given three break chances - match points - with Murray serving at 3-5. The Scot somehow saved them all and seemed rejuvenated, as he broke Soderling while he was serving for the match and brought it to a tiebreak. However, just when it looked like the momentum was about to turn, Soderling recovered from a momentary lapse and took the tiebreak 7-4.
So now the semis are set. Nadal, who is impressing with his performance here, has a nearly sure win against Ivan Ljubicic, who has played well this week, but hasn't faced terribly strong opposition. Nadal, on the other hand, has beaten a bevy of good players, and considering that he was questionable with his knee injury, his run towards defending his title is nothing short of spectacular. He hasn't won a title in ten months, and to come back at a Masters Event would be superb.
Soderling gets Andy Roddick in the semis, who brushed aside Robredo as easily as he usually does. It seems that everything is breaking well for the American, whose tougher opponents (according to the draw) stumbled at various stage and set up much easier matches to get him back to the semis, here. But he'll have his first real test against Soderling, who has never lost to Roddick in their two meetings. Roddick has never made a final in Indian Wells, and he probably won't get a better shot than this for the rest of his career. But he'll need to play much more aggressively than Murray did today, and he can hope that Soderling doesn't serve at his best.
For the other matches to look forward to, Caroline Wozniacki will face Jelena Jankovic for the women's final, which is a chance for the Serb to get back on track at a fairly major tournament. Tough to bet against Wozniacki, though.
The doubles final also has Rafael Nadal in it, which just hows how spectacularly he's playing this week. He'll face the top seeds, Nestor and Zimonjic, with his parter Marc Lopez.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Indian Wells Quarterfinals
The round of sixteen is complete in California, and it was - honestly - not all that exciting. There were two three-set matches, but every single match (except one) was won by the higher-ranked player. The lone upset was an exhausted Novak Djokovic, who fell to Ivan Ljubicic. He did not seem especially saddened or surprised by the loss. Hopefully he'll get some rest and be ready for action again in Miami.
The two three setters were between Nadal-Isner and Robredo-Baghdatis - the second set featured a steamrolling performance by Baggy, but the Spaniard was able to win the other two sets pretty comfortably. I think the Cypriot was hurt by playing so late last night, and he was tired against Robredo, who is doubtless a very physically fit player. Robredo also has the dubious honor of being the best player of the last decade never to make a grand slam semifinal.
The other three-setter was less topsy-turvy. Even though it went three sets, Nadal was in charge against the big-serving American the entire time. He played one loose service game in the second set, and it was done. But other than that, Nadal played his usual imperious game. He went the entire first set without making an unforced error. He then went on to win a doubles match against Llodra and Ram. Isner also went on to win a doubles match, so it's good to see he wasn't discouraged by his loss.
Beyond that, the other round of 16 matches were not terrifically interesting. Almagro was forced to retire in the first game of the second set, after he had started the match on fire, winning the first two games before losing the next seven. It's always a shame when a tough match ends and then the winner has to retire in their subsequent match - for the loser, for the crowd, and for the tournament. James Blake has to be kicking himself right now.
At this point, it's pretty clear which half of the draw is stronger. The remaining players in the top half are seeded 4, 6, 7, and 18. The remaining players in the bottom half are seeded 3, 19, 20, and 21. It's tough to see Nadal losing before the final against Berdych, Ljubicic, or Monaco, considering how well he's played so far. Unless an injure flares up or he comes down bad on a knee, he should make it to Sunday's final.
The story in the top half is more interesting. You have to pick Andy Roddick as the favorite to make it to the semis against Robredo, as the American is 10-0 against Tommy. But Murray and Soderling haven't played in four years, and neither player even resembles who they were in 2006. And then taking the winner of that match against Roddick, to me it may be a bit of a three-way pick-em, but Murray does have to be the favorite. And Soderling is 2-0 against Roddick, who is 3-6 against the other Andy. But Roddick has to be excited with the way the draw is opening up for him. To have all of his potentially troubling opponents get taken out by others - Tiparevic, Monfils, Federer, and Baghdatis. Roddick has not yet played a player who has beaten him even once. He is 22-0 against his first four opponents, coming into the tournament. It's tough to ask for a better road to the final.
It is worth noting that two of the four lower seeds (18-21) have won Masters Series tournaments (Robredo and Berdych), and a third has made multiple finals (Ljubicic). So it's not like they've never been here before. Despite the fact that my draw with my predictions is an absolute shambles, I am really enjoying this tournament and am greatly looking forward to the last three rounds.
The two three setters were between Nadal-Isner and Robredo-Baghdatis - the second set featured a steamrolling performance by Baggy, but the Spaniard was able to win the other two sets pretty comfortably. I think the Cypriot was hurt by playing so late last night, and he was tired against Robredo, who is doubtless a very physically fit player. Robredo also has the dubious honor of being the best player of the last decade never to make a grand slam semifinal.
The other three-setter was less topsy-turvy. Even though it went three sets, Nadal was in charge against the big-serving American the entire time. He played one loose service game in the second set, and it was done. But other than that, Nadal played his usual imperious game. He went the entire first set without making an unforced error. He then went on to win a doubles match against Llodra and Ram. Isner also went on to win a doubles match, so it's good to see he wasn't discouraged by his loss.
Beyond that, the other round of 16 matches were not terrifically interesting. Almagro was forced to retire in the first game of the second set, after he had started the match on fire, winning the first two games before losing the next seven. It's always a shame when a tough match ends and then the winner has to retire in their subsequent match - for the loser, for the crowd, and for the tournament. James Blake has to be kicking himself right now.
At this point, it's pretty clear which half of the draw is stronger. The remaining players in the top half are seeded 4, 6, 7, and 18. The remaining players in the bottom half are seeded 3, 19, 20, and 21. It's tough to see Nadal losing before the final against Berdych, Ljubicic, or Monaco, considering how well he's played so far. Unless an injure flares up or he comes down bad on a knee, he should make it to Sunday's final.
The story in the top half is more interesting. You have to pick Andy Roddick as the favorite to make it to the semis against Robredo, as the American is 10-0 against Tommy. But Murray and Soderling haven't played in four years, and neither player even resembles who they were in 2006. And then taking the winner of that match against Roddick, to me it may be a bit of a three-way pick-em, but Murray does have to be the favorite. And Soderling is 2-0 against Roddick, who is 3-6 against the other Andy. But Roddick has to be excited with the way the draw is opening up for him. To have all of his potentially troubling opponents get taken out by others - Tiparevic, Monfils, Federer, and Baghdatis. Roddick has not yet played a player who has beaten him even once. He is 22-0 against his first four opponents, coming into the tournament. It's tough to ask for a better road to the final.
It is worth noting that two of the four lower seeds (18-21) have won Masters Series tournaments (Robredo and Berdych), and a third has made multiple finals (Ljubicic). So it's not like they've never been here before. Despite the fact that my draw with my predictions is an absolute shambles, I am really enjoying this tournament and am greatly looking forward to the last three rounds.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Sunrise Challenger Update
While most of the tennis world's attention is drawn to the West coast of the United States for the BNP Paribas Masters Series event at Indian Wells, there is another tournament going on this week with more marquee players than you would find at your average 250-tier event on any given week on the ATP Tour.
While the challenger circuit is mostly the minor leagues of the tennis world, filled with young hopefuls on their way up and aging veterans hoping to get back to their former glory, there are a handful of challenger tournaments that have carved out, through hard work and a little bit of luck, a really nice niche in the tennis calender.
The BMW Tennis Championship in Sunrise, Florida is one of those challenger tournaments. Situated during the second week of the 1.5-week long Indian Wells tourney, the Sunrise tournament is situated in close proximity to the next Masters Series event in Miami, which makes it a frequent stop for relatively highly-ranked players who didn't play at Indian Wells (or who didn't play for very long) in order to get some momentum for the next Masters event.
Last year, Robin Soderling was having a middling start to the season. He was 5-5 after losing to Nicolas Lapentti in the second round in Indian Wells, but he didn't commit to Sunrise in time to make the main draw. So he played through qualifying, into a challenger event, and ended up beating Gilles Muller, Rainer Schuettler, Feliciano Lopez, and Tomas Berdych on his way to taking the title. It's not often you see a challenger tournament with a field that strong.
And while Soderling wasn't able to build on his momentum right away, (he lost in the second round at Miami as well, to Robert Kendrick) his year took a turn starting at the French Open. After his miraculous run to the final, in which he became the first player ever to beat Rafael Nadal on the red clay of Roland Garros, he made the round of 16 at Wimbledon and the quarters at the US Open, losing to Federer both times. He also won the tournament in Bastaad and made the semifinals at the end of year championships.
This year, he's in the top ten and still in action at Indian Wells, so he won't be defending his title at Sunrise. But there is still a loaded field. One of the opening matches features Richard Gasquet against Gilles Simon, two players who have shown glimpses of their ability, but haven't been able to put it all together lately. Radek Stepanek is also there, who it was just announced is marrying the retiring Nicole Vaidisova this summer. His year has stalled out, engagement to a beautiful 20-year old notwithstanding. After making the final in Brisbane and losing to Andy Roddick, he has won only one match in his next three tournaments.
There are a handful of players in action at the 2010 BMW Tennis Championship who have lingered on the edge of obscurity, those players who always seem to be threatening to make a big move but never quite able to do it. Last year, Robin Soderling was in that camp. This year, he's playing J.W. Tsonga for a likely shot at Andy Murray in the querterfinals at Indian Wells. Maybe someone else will make that jump into the top tier, this year.
While the challenger circuit is mostly the minor leagues of the tennis world, filled with young hopefuls on their way up and aging veterans hoping to get back to their former glory, there are a handful of challenger tournaments that have carved out, through hard work and a little bit of luck, a really nice niche in the tennis calender.
The BMW Tennis Championship in Sunrise, Florida is one of those challenger tournaments. Situated during the second week of the 1.5-week long Indian Wells tourney, the Sunrise tournament is situated in close proximity to the next Masters Series event in Miami, which makes it a frequent stop for relatively highly-ranked players who didn't play at Indian Wells (or who didn't play for very long) in order to get some momentum for the next Masters event.
Last year, Robin Soderling was having a middling start to the season. He was 5-5 after losing to Nicolas Lapentti in the second round in Indian Wells, but he didn't commit to Sunrise in time to make the main draw. So he played through qualifying, into a challenger event, and ended up beating Gilles Muller, Rainer Schuettler, Feliciano Lopez, and Tomas Berdych on his way to taking the title. It's not often you see a challenger tournament with a field that strong.
And while Soderling wasn't able to build on his momentum right away, (he lost in the second round at Miami as well, to Robert Kendrick) his year took a turn starting at the French Open. After his miraculous run to the final, in which he became the first player ever to beat Rafael Nadal on the red clay of Roland Garros, he made the round of 16 at Wimbledon and the quarters at the US Open, losing to Federer both times. He also won the tournament in Bastaad and made the semifinals at the end of year championships.
This year, he's in the top ten and still in action at Indian Wells, so he won't be defending his title at Sunrise. But there is still a loaded field. One of the opening matches features Richard Gasquet against Gilles Simon, two players who have shown glimpses of their ability, but haven't been able to put it all together lately. Radek Stepanek is also there, who it was just announced is marrying the retiring Nicole Vaidisova this summer. His year has stalled out, engagement to a beautiful 20-year old notwithstanding. After making the final in Brisbane and losing to Andy Roddick, he has won only one match in his next three tournaments.
There are a handful of players in action at the 2010 BMW Tennis Championship who have lingered on the edge of obscurity, those players who always seem to be threatening to make a big move but never quite able to do it. Last year, Robin Soderling was in that camp. This year, he's playing J.W. Tsonga for a likely shot at Andy Murray in the querterfinals at Indian Wells. Maybe someone else will make that jump into the top tier, this year.
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