I'm somewhat reluctant to admit it, but I have to say that it was tough to get excited about pretty much anything that happened over the course of the past week - the biggest story of the past week was Rafael Nadal's commitment to play in Queens next year. There was almost an enticing final in Metz, as Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet looked prime to meet, but then Gasquet withdrew from his semifinal match with a fever. The Frenchman won, but it was a pretty depleted field. And Chela beat Andujar in Bucharest - a tournament that was filled with steady but unexciting clay court players.
But fortunately, things are starting to heat up. Last week, the 14th-ranked player in the world was the top player in action - but now, six of the top ten are playing. This is the start of the Asian swing, with tournaments in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok. Nadal is playing, along with Soderling, Davydenko, Berdych, Youzhny, and Verdasco. But the biggest story of the week is that this marks former U.S. Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro's return to action after spending most of the year recovering from surgery. He starts off with a tricky encounter against Olivier Rochus, so there's not much time to get back in the groove. It will be very interesting to see how the Argentine does in his return. Assuming DelPo gets past Rochus, it's likely that he'll meet Nadal in the quarters, which should be interesting. Del Potro just blew Nadal off the court the last few times they've played.
Unfortunately for the tournament, except for the top couple of players and Juan Martin Del Potro, the rest of the draw is a bit weak. The second quarter of the draw is headed up by Ernests Gulbis, but it also has Rainer Schuettler and Teymuraz Gabasvhili. The third quarter has a handful of guys who could make the semis - Jurgen Melzer, Dudi Sela, Marco Chiudinelli, Viktor Troicki, and Jarkko Nieminen. The last quarter belongs to Fernando Verdasco - who doesn't have anyone comparable to a DelPo to challenge him. Thiemo de Bakker and Feliciano Lopez are fine players, but I'd be shocked not to see Verdasco come through his quarter. It's likely that we'll get the top seeds through to that stage - and Nadal-Gulbis plus Melzer-Verdasco would be a pretty great line-up for such a small torunament.
In Kuala Lumpur, there are more top players - four of the six top ten guys in action are in Malaysia. Robin Soderling is the top seed, and he could have a tricky path through the draw - his section has Andrey Golubev, tall, big-serving South African Kevin Anderson, and Yen-Hsun Lu. Soderling hasn't played his best in small tournaments like these this year, so he could use a good run.
While Bangkok has the bigger stars, the depth of field is better in Kuala Lumpur. The second quarter has Berdych and Ferrer, as well as a pair of young wildcards - Yuki Bhambri and Bernard Tomic. Tough to bet against Berdych in that group, though he hasn't played particularly well since Wimbledon. Istomin is also in this group - he's got an outside chance of making the quarters.
The third quarter has one of the best opening-round matches in this tournament, in which Marcos Baghdatis faces off against Kei Nishikori. Dolgopolov is also in this group, and could get Mikhail Youzhny in the second round. Any of these four guys could get through. The last quarter has Sergiy Stakhovsky against Michael Russel as another pretty good first-round match, and a potential match between Russians Davydenko and Andreev in the second round. The young Canadian player Milos Raonic is also in this section. There are some very interesting top players and young guns in this tournament - there could be some fun matches.
It's still early, but there's a chance for some fireworks this week, with so many of the top players and talented young guns in action. I'm looking forward to the tennis.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Monday, September 20, 2010
Davis Cup Wrap-Up and Week 38 Preview
It is technically a bit early to be writing a Davis Cup weekend wrap-up, because Australia and Belgium are still locked in their fifth rubber, tied at two a piece. Play was largely suspended yesterday, as heavy rains made action impossible. With Lleyton Hewitt out of the picture, the first reverse singles match was a tough one, but Olivier Rochus beat Peter Luczak in four sets, three of them tiebreaks. Now Steve Darcis and Carsten Ball are playing - this could be a big moment for young Carsten.
As for the ties that did finish up today, there were a surprising number of comebacks. India completed their comeback from two points to none down after the first day's singles - helped immensely by a retirement by top Brazilian player Tomaz Bellucci against Somdev Devvarman. A massive comeback for the Indian squad, though I must say I don't like their chances in the World Group next year.
Austria also came back from two points to one down to beat Israel in Tel Aviv, which is a devastating result for the Israelis. It wasn't a surprise that Melzer beat Sela (though the ease with which he dispatched the top Israeli player was a bit of a surprise) but Harel Levy must have felt like he had a chance to beat Martin Fischer, but the Austrian was not overwhelmed by the occasion or the crowd, and he pulled out a fairly straightforward four set win. That was Fischer's first Davis Cup match! Stunning performance.
But the biggest fightback was Serbia's defeat of the Czech Republic, after losing the doubles rubber on Saturday. Novak Djokovic beat Tomas Berdych in a rematch of their Wimbledon semifinal, and then Janko Tipsarevic absolutely blitzed Radek Stepanek. The veteran may have been a bit exhausted, or feeling some lingering effects from his recent injuries, but Tipsy blew him off the court. So now Serbia is on to their first Davis Cup final, set to face France in Belgrade in a few months' time. Tipsarevic was really the hero, winning both of his singles matches.
But perhaps the biggest hero of the weekend for any particular team was Mardy Fish, who won two five-set singles matches and a four-set doubles match to put the U.S. past the Colombians, in what could charitably be called just about the worst possible conditions for American players. It wasn't great tennis, but Fish played incredibly tough and showed a lot of heart. There were times in the past few years that Mardy was talking like his career was in its twilight stages, but I don't think there's any reason to expect he doesn't have a lot left in him during the years to come.
In other news, Grigor Dimitrov won his second consecutive Challenger tournament, and jumped into the top 150 in the rankings. Brad Gilbert predicted he'd be in the top 20 within a year, which still sounds like a big ask, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. If he can get closer to the top hundred by the end of the year and start getting direct acceptance into top-level tournaments, he'll have the chance to really prove himself among the game's best.
Anyway, looking ahead to the action during the coming week. I'll admit that it's not the most exciting, after a weekend of non-stop Davis Cup action and two weeks of the U.S. Open. But there are some interesting storylines to look at.
In Bucharest, we have the year's final clay court tournament! The clay court year may be ending with a whimper, rather than a bang, because the top seed in Romania is 22nd ranked Albert Montanes, while the second seed is 45th ranked Florian Mayer. Keep an eye on Victor Hanescu in this draw, as the top Romanian player loves clay and is hot coming off Romania's win in the Davis Cup. Every one of these players knows that they should be getting ready for the hard court season in Asia, but their best bet for ranking points is on the clay, so they're scrambling for what they can get in this, their lost shot this year. It's an interesting assortment of specialists.
The draw in Metz is quite a bit stronger, headlined by a slumping Marin Cilic, but also featuring Monfils, Gasquet, Llodra, and Simon, a powerful French contingent, no question. Simon opens against flamboyant Jamaican Dustin Brown, which should be an interesting match. Other match-ups to watch for are Arnaud Clement as a potential second-round for Marin Cilic, and Xavier Malisse potentially getting Ivan Ljubicic. And Jarkko Nieminen and Benjamin Becker in the first round isn't a bad match-up, and could be a fun match. I'll take another look at these draws a few rounds in, to see how things have developed.
As for the ties that did finish up today, there were a surprising number of comebacks. India completed their comeback from two points to none down after the first day's singles - helped immensely by a retirement by top Brazilian player Tomaz Bellucci against Somdev Devvarman. A massive comeback for the Indian squad, though I must say I don't like their chances in the World Group next year.
Austria also came back from two points to one down to beat Israel in Tel Aviv, which is a devastating result for the Israelis. It wasn't a surprise that Melzer beat Sela (though the ease with which he dispatched the top Israeli player was a bit of a surprise) but Harel Levy must have felt like he had a chance to beat Martin Fischer, but the Austrian was not overwhelmed by the occasion or the crowd, and he pulled out a fairly straightforward four set win. That was Fischer's first Davis Cup match! Stunning performance.
But the biggest fightback was Serbia's defeat of the Czech Republic, after losing the doubles rubber on Saturday. Novak Djokovic beat Tomas Berdych in a rematch of their Wimbledon semifinal, and then Janko Tipsarevic absolutely blitzed Radek Stepanek. The veteran may have been a bit exhausted, or feeling some lingering effects from his recent injuries, but Tipsy blew him off the court. So now Serbia is on to their first Davis Cup final, set to face France in Belgrade in a few months' time. Tipsarevic was really the hero, winning both of his singles matches.
But perhaps the biggest hero of the weekend for any particular team was Mardy Fish, who won two five-set singles matches and a four-set doubles match to put the U.S. past the Colombians, in what could charitably be called just about the worst possible conditions for American players. It wasn't great tennis, but Fish played incredibly tough and showed a lot of heart. There were times in the past few years that Mardy was talking like his career was in its twilight stages, but I don't think there's any reason to expect he doesn't have a lot left in him during the years to come.
In other news, Grigor Dimitrov won his second consecutive Challenger tournament, and jumped into the top 150 in the rankings. Brad Gilbert predicted he'd be in the top 20 within a year, which still sounds like a big ask, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. If he can get closer to the top hundred by the end of the year and start getting direct acceptance into top-level tournaments, he'll have the chance to really prove himself among the game's best.
Anyway, looking ahead to the action during the coming week. I'll admit that it's not the most exciting, after a weekend of non-stop Davis Cup action and two weeks of the U.S. Open. But there are some interesting storylines to look at.
In Bucharest, we have the year's final clay court tournament! The clay court year may be ending with a whimper, rather than a bang, because the top seed in Romania is 22nd ranked Albert Montanes, while the second seed is 45th ranked Florian Mayer. Keep an eye on Victor Hanescu in this draw, as the top Romanian player loves clay and is hot coming off Romania's win in the Davis Cup. Every one of these players knows that they should be getting ready for the hard court season in Asia, but their best bet for ranking points is on the clay, so they're scrambling for what they can get in this, their lost shot this year. It's an interesting assortment of specialists.
The draw in Metz is quite a bit stronger, headlined by a slumping Marin Cilic, but also featuring Monfils, Gasquet, Llodra, and Simon, a powerful French contingent, no question. Simon opens against flamboyant Jamaican Dustin Brown, which should be an interesting match. Other match-ups to watch for are Arnaud Clement as a potential second-round for Marin Cilic, and Xavier Malisse potentially getting Ivan Ljubicic. And Jarkko Nieminen and Benjamin Becker in the first round isn't a bad match-up, and could be a fun match. I'll take another look at these draws a few rounds in, to see how things have developed.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Davis Cup Saturday
Of the ten Davis Cup ties relating to the World Group that are taking place this weekend, four have already reached their conclusion. Three of the playoff rubbers: Germany has beaten South Africa, Romania has beaten Ecuador, and - in the only real surprise, Kazakhstan has trounced Switzerland. I expect that Stan Wawrinka, the player who really needed to put in a strong performance for Switzerland with Roger Federer out of the picture, was still exhausted and possibly nursing an injury from his run at the U.S. Open. It's not the first time this has happened, though, as Switzerland actually dropped out of the World Group as recently as 1998. Federer didn't help the Swiss come back from that a few years ago - I wonder if he'll do it next year.
In the World Group semifinals, France stormed to a 3-0 victory against Argentina. On the day of the first singles, it looked like Nalbandian was going to outplay Gael Monfils, but then Nalby just went away in the third set, and from that point on, Argentina was never even in the tie. France made it to their first final since 2002.
They'll face either Serbia or the Czech Republic - their rubber was tied at the end of the singles. Djokovic was forced to withdraw, and Troicki lost to Stepanek. But then Tipsarevic turned in one of his best career performances to beat Berdych in four sets. A really strong performance from Janko. Unfortunately for the Serbian fans, despite Djokovic's presence in the doubles, the Czechs won in straights, so they'll have the advantage going into the final day. It will be interesting to see if Djokovic plays singles, and how well he can play. If he does play up to his potential and manages to win, the match between Stepanek and Tipsarevic could be the deciding one, and that's an intriguing one.
As for the as-yet undecided playoff matches, the one that I have the most interest in is - as you might expect - the U.S. against Colombia. In an effort to counter the U.S. players' strengths at every turn, they not only decided to play the rubber on clay, but also decided to use pressureless balls. While it may have been tough for the U.S. players to deal with, it hasn't been easy for the Colombians either. In Mardy Fish's five-set win over Alejandro Falla, the two of them hit nearly 200 unforced errors. But Fish adjusted to the conditions, while Sam Querrey, who followed him, just couldn't get his game together in the adverse conditions. It wasn't an encouraging performance, but I can understand. While pressureless balls and clay courts make for some difficult back-court rallies, they don't make much difference up at net - which was why I favored Fish and Isner in the doubles match, and it turn out to be the case that they pulled out the win. If there's one thing that Isner's used to, after all, it's altitude. I don't know if Querrey's going back out for the reverse singles (I wouldn't be surprised if they subbed in Isner instead) but I think the odds of the Americans picking up one of those two points is pretty good.
Australia may be up two points to one over Belgium, so it may seem like their victory is assured. But Lleyton Hewitt is out of the reverse singles with a wrist injury, so it seems that either Peter Luczak or Carsten Ball will need to win a singles match to get the Australians, too. It's a break for the Belgians, but it's still a tough ask, to win both points on the final day of a Davis Cup match.
For example, I have to doubt that the Italians have a chance of winning both points against Sweden, particularly since that would mean that Potito Starace would have to beat Robin Soderling. That's not looking too likely to me.
India and Brazil had the most exciting first day of the whole weekend, despite it being an outright disaster for the home team. India lost both matches in five-set thrillers, but they bounced back in the doubles - not really a surprise, as Bhupathi and Paes are one of the great doubles teams of our era. Since the first singles matches were so close, there's a chance - not a big chance, but a slight one - for an Indian comeback tomorrow. But I see the Brazilians coming through.
And Israel and Austria are resuming action after taking a day off for Yom Kippur. It's tough to see Austria coming back from 2 points to 1 down, but if Melzer can beat Sela (a likely event) it would all come down to young Andreas Haider-Maurer against the veteran Harel Levy. That would be a deciding rubber that would be fun to see.
Davis Cup weekends are full of fun action. There were some good matches in the regional competition as well - Canadian teen Milos Raonic beat a vet from the Dominican Republic 9-7 in the fifth, which is a great result for him. Korea won the first two points of their tie against the Philippines, and both of their singles players were teenagers. Encouraging signs for the Korean team. And the young Lithuanian player Ricardas Berankis beat Blaz Kavcic of Slovakia, then contributed to a five-set doubles win as well. He could win the whole tie himself!
In the World Group semifinals, France stormed to a 3-0 victory against Argentina. On the day of the first singles, it looked like Nalbandian was going to outplay Gael Monfils, but then Nalby just went away in the third set, and from that point on, Argentina was never even in the tie. France made it to their first final since 2002.
They'll face either Serbia or the Czech Republic - their rubber was tied at the end of the singles. Djokovic was forced to withdraw, and Troicki lost to Stepanek. But then Tipsarevic turned in one of his best career performances to beat Berdych in four sets. A really strong performance from Janko. Unfortunately for the Serbian fans, despite Djokovic's presence in the doubles, the Czechs won in straights, so they'll have the advantage going into the final day. It will be interesting to see if Djokovic plays singles, and how well he can play. If he does play up to his potential and manages to win, the match between Stepanek and Tipsarevic could be the deciding one, and that's an intriguing one.
As for the as-yet undecided playoff matches, the one that I have the most interest in is - as you might expect - the U.S. against Colombia. In an effort to counter the U.S. players' strengths at every turn, they not only decided to play the rubber on clay, but also decided to use pressureless balls. While it may have been tough for the U.S. players to deal with, it hasn't been easy for the Colombians either. In Mardy Fish's five-set win over Alejandro Falla, the two of them hit nearly 200 unforced errors. But Fish adjusted to the conditions, while Sam Querrey, who followed him, just couldn't get his game together in the adverse conditions. It wasn't an encouraging performance, but I can understand. While pressureless balls and clay courts make for some difficult back-court rallies, they don't make much difference up at net - which was why I favored Fish and Isner in the doubles match, and it turn out to be the case that they pulled out the win. If there's one thing that Isner's used to, after all, it's altitude. I don't know if Querrey's going back out for the reverse singles (I wouldn't be surprised if they subbed in Isner instead) but I think the odds of the Americans picking up one of those two points is pretty good.
Australia may be up two points to one over Belgium, so it may seem like their victory is assured. But Lleyton Hewitt is out of the reverse singles with a wrist injury, so it seems that either Peter Luczak or Carsten Ball will need to win a singles match to get the Australians, too. It's a break for the Belgians, but it's still a tough ask, to win both points on the final day of a Davis Cup match.
For example, I have to doubt that the Italians have a chance of winning both points against Sweden, particularly since that would mean that Potito Starace would have to beat Robin Soderling. That's not looking too likely to me.
India and Brazil had the most exciting first day of the whole weekend, despite it being an outright disaster for the home team. India lost both matches in five-set thrillers, but they bounced back in the doubles - not really a surprise, as Bhupathi and Paes are one of the great doubles teams of our era. Since the first singles matches were so close, there's a chance - not a big chance, but a slight one - for an Indian comeback tomorrow. But I see the Brazilians coming through.
And Israel and Austria are resuming action after taking a day off for Yom Kippur. It's tough to see Austria coming back from 2 points to 1 down, but if Melzer can beat Sela (a likely event) it would all come down to young Andreas Haider-Maurer against the veteran Harel Levy. That would be a deciding rubber that would be fun to see.
Davis Cup weekends are full of fun action. There were some good matches in the regional competition as well - Canadian teen Milos Raonic beat a vet from the Dominican Republic 9-7 in the fifth, which is a great result for him. Korea won the first two points of their tie against the Philippines, and both of their singles players were teenagers. Encouraging signs for the Korean team. And the young Lithuanian player Ricardas Berankis beat Blaz Kavcic of Slovakia, then contributed to a five-set doubles win as well. He could win the whole tie himself!
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Davis Cup Preview
I thought I was going to have all day to make a post about the Davis Cup, but somehow, Austria and Israel are already underway - the wonders of time zones and intercontinental play. So I'll take a look at what we can expect this weekend.
Of course, we're at the Davis Cup World Group semifinals, with four teams remaining. Argentina plays France and Serbia plays the Czech Republic. Despite not featuring the biggest Davis Cup nations - well, mostly Spain - from recent years, this is a pretty great line-up.
Unfortunately for Serbia, their best and linchpin player may not be at his freshest, having just played in a tough but losing grand slam final, which was even delayed a couple days. You've got to give the Serbs their doubles point, with Nenad Zimonjic on their team, against relatively weak Czech opposition on that front. But the tie will come down to precisely two factors - the first is how tired Novak Djokovic is after the past two weeks, and whether Radek Stepanek is finally back near his top form. He was on a prolonged injury layoff this year, and hasn't played particularly well since. But if he can get one point, and Tomas Berdych (who should be quite well-rested, losing in the first round at the U.S. Open) can win both his singles matches, I see a victory in the cards for the Czechs. But if Djokovic can build on his recent success, then there's no reason that this tie shouldn't go the Serbs' way. The home field advantage may help Tipsarevic and Troicki, who could be the players that determine the victory.
The other tie is arguably more difficult to call. The Argentine squad may be without Juan Martin Del Potro, but David Nalbandian has been the player of the year for the Davis Cup, thus far. He's absolutely dominated in the first two rounds, winning three singles matches and a doubles match. He hasn't even dropped a set yet, going 12-0 in those four matches. But he doesn't have the strongest back-up, as three of the four players for the Argentines are clay-court specialists. If Nalbandian can win both of his matches, I think that the Argentines may be able to get one more point - but that's no easy task. I think that this tie may come down in no small part to how well Frenchman Michael Llodra can play, since he was forced to retire in the third round of the U.S. Open against Tommy Robredo. But he had beaten Tomas Berdych earlier in the tournament. This one will be exciting, especially the matches featuring David Nalbandian - can he win a Davis Cup this year all on his own? The Argentines are also going for their third straight win on the road, which is tough to imagine.
While those two rubbers are undoubtedly important, there's a lot more Davis Cup action taking place this week, what with the World Group play-offs. These teams are playing each other for a chance at playing in the main tournament next year, and there are some big match-ups to look for.
As I noted, Austria and Israel are already in action. This tie should will down to one player - Austrian Jurgen Melzer. He's the best player in the arena, but he's also the only Austrian player of note. If this were in Austria, I'd give it to them easy. But it's more difficult in Tel Aviv. Dudi Sela already won the first point for the Israelis, and despite being down a set, Harel Levy is playing quite well. You may remember last year when they defeated Sweden and Russia, so the Israeli players seem to thrive in the Davis Cup format. While Austria is the slight favorite just based on the quality of their players, this could be an upset due to more intangible factors.
The U.S. is probably the biggest team in the playoff. The Americans haven't been in the World Group playoff since 2005. This time, they're playing at altitude in Colombia. Now they may be playing on red clay, which will favor the Colombians from the back of the court, but the thin air will allow the big serves of Isner, Querrey, and Fish to fly through the air. Despite less-than-stellar records on the surface, all three of the American singles players (soon-to-step down coach Pat McEnroe wanted to ensure we got those singles points, rather than getting a sure-fire doubles point with the Bryan Brothers) can play tennis on any surface. The Colombians have some solid players - Alejandro Falla nearly ousted Federer at Wimbledon, recall? But the rankings of their top two players are in the 60s, and that should be enough difference in the quality of play. It's not a sure thing, but the Americans haven't dropped out of the World Group since 1988, and I don't see it happening here, despite the lack of Roddick or the Bryans for the U.S. team.
The other notable absence at the Davis Cup playoffs is Roger Federer, who won't be playing for Switzerland against Kazakhstan. While you may think that it should be an easy win for the Swiss, the Kazakh contingent is deceptively talented. Andrey Golubev is in the top 50, and Kukushkin and Korolev are both in the top 100. Switzerland also has three players in the top 100, but one of them won't be showing up for the tie. This is the first World Group playoff for Kazakhstan, and once again - the big issue will be how Stan Wawrinka's feeling, after his long run at the U.S. Open. There's some upset potential here as well, though.
While the Swiss top player may be sitting out, the top Australian player is back. Lleyton Hewitt is here to help his country face the Belgian team, for a chance to get back into the World Group. If you can believe it, the Australians haven't been in the World Group since 2007. The last chance they had they were forced to play Chile without Hewitt in action, and were soundly defeated. I like their chances much better this time, as they'll only have to face the Belgian squad, which has Olivier Rochus as its top player. I'm surprised the Belgians picked outdoor hardcourt as the surface, since Hewitt loves that surface and young Aussie player Carsten Ball's serve should work wonders on it. I pick the Aussies here.
The Germany-South Africa contest might have been tight, but unfortunately, the South Africans are lacking their top player. Young giant Kevin Anderson won't be in action, and while the Germans don't have Tommy Haas either, Philipp Kohlschreiber should be able to shoulder the load against Rik de Voest and Izak Van Der Merwe.
The match-up between Sweden and Italy could be interesting. Italy has a pair (or perhaps a trio) of midlevel players, while Sweden has one top five player. In the Davis Cup format, you might prefer to have a few good players rather than just one great one (just ask Australian or Great Britain) but I'm not so sure.
I'll admit to being unable to muster too much excitement about the other two ties being contested this weekend. But I lean towards Brazil over Indian (Tomaz Bellucci is headed for the top 20) and I have no idea who's going to win between Romania and Ecuador, but no matter who wins, everybody else in the World Group is hoping to get them in the first round.
Of course, we're at the Davis Cup World Group semifinals, with four teams remaining. Argentina plays France and Serbia plays the Czech Republic. Despite not featuring the biggest Davis Cup nations - well, mostly Spain - from recent years, this is a pretty great line-up.
Unfortunately for Serbia, their best and linchpin player may not be at his freshest, having just played in a tough but losing grand slam final, which was even delayed a couple days. You've got to give the Serbs their doubles point, with Nenad Zimonjic on their team, against relatively weak Czech opposition on that front. But the tie will come down to precisely two factors - the first is how tired Novak Djokovic is after the past two weeks, and whether Radek Stepanek is finally back near his top form. He was on a prolonged injury layoff this year, and hasn't played particularly well since. But if he can get one point, and Tomas Berdych (who should be quite well-rested, losing in the first round at the U.S. Open) can win both his singles matches, I see a victory in the cards for the Czechs. But if Djokovic can build on his recent success, then there's no reason that this tie shouldn't go the Serbs' way. The home field advantage may help Tipsarevic and Troicki, who could be the players that determine the victory.
The other tie is arguably more difficult to call. The Argentine squad may be without Juan Martin Del Potro, but David Nalbandian has been the player of the year for the Davis Cup, thus far. He's absolutely dominated in the first two rounds, winning three singles matches and a doubles match. He hasn't even dropped a set yet, going 12-0 in those four matches. But he doesn't have the strongest back-up, as three of the four players for the Argentines are clay-court specialists. If Nalbandian can win both of his matches, I think that the Argentines may be able to get one more point - but that's no easy task. I think that this tie may come down in no small part to how well Frenchman Michael Llodra can play, since he was forced to retire in the third round of the U.S. Open against Tommy Robredo. But he had beaten Tomas Berdych earlier in the tournament. This one will be exciting, especially the matches featuring David Nalbandian - can he win a Davis Cup this year all on his own? The Argentines are also going for their third straight win on the road, which is tough to imagine.
While those two rubbers are undoubtedly important, there's a lot more Davis Cup action taking place this week, what with the World Group play-offs. These teams are playing each other for a chance at playing in the main tournament next year, and there are some big match-ups to look for.
As I noted, Austria and Israel are already in action. This tie should will down to one player - Austrian Jurgen Melzer. He's the best player in the arena, but he's also the only Austrian player of note. If this were in Austria, I'd give it to them easy. But it's more difficult in Tel Aviv. Dudi Sela already won the first point for the Israelis, and despite being down a set, Harel Levy is playing quite well. You may remember last year when they defeated Sweden and Russia, so the Israeli players seem to thrive in the Davis Cup format. While Austria is the slight favorite just based on the quality of their players, this could be an upset due to more intangible factors.
The U.S. is probably the biggest team in the playoff. The Americans haven't been in the World Group playoff since 2005. This time, they're playing at altitude in Colombia. Now they may be playing on red clay, which will favor the Colombians from the back of the court, but the thin air will allow the big serves of Isner, Querrey, and Fish to fly through the air. Despite less-than-stellar records on the surface, all three of the American singles players (soon-to-step down coach Pat McEnroe wanted to ensure we got those singles points, rather than getting a sure-fire doubles point with the Bryan Brothers) can play tennis on any surface. The Colombians have some solid players - Alejandro Falla nearly ousted Federer at Wimbledon, recall? But the rankings of their top two players are in the 60s, and that should be enough difference in the quality of play. It's not a sure thing, but the Americans haven't dropped out of the World Group since 1988, and I don't see it happening here, despite the lack of Roddick or the Bryans for the U.S. team.
The other notable absence at the Davis Cup playoffs is Roger Federer, who won't be playing for Switzerland against Kazakhstan. While you may think that it should be an easy win for the Swiss, the Kazakh contingent is deceptively talented. Andrey Golubev is in the top 50, and Kukushkin and Korolev are both in the top 100. Switzerland also has three players in the top 100, but one of them won't be showing up for the tie. This is the first World Group playoff for Kazakhstan, and once again - the big issue will be how Stan Wawrinka's feeling, after his long run at the U.S. Open. There's some upset potential here as well, though.
While the Swiss top player may be sitting out, the top Australian player is back. Lleyton Hewitt is here to help his country face the Belgian team, for a chance to get back into the World Group. If you can believe it, the Australians haven't been in the World Group since 2007. The last chance they had they were forced to play Chile without Hewitt in action, and were soundly defeated. I like their chances much better this time, as they'll only have to face the Belgian squad, which has Olivier Rochus as its top player. I'm surprised the Belgians picked outdoor hardcourt as the surface, since Hewitt loves that surface and young Aussie player Carsten Ball's serve should work wonders on it. I pick the Aussies here.
The Germany-South Africa contest might have been tight, but unfortunately, the South Africans are lacking their top player. Young giant Kevin Anderson won't be in action, and while the Germans don't have Tommy Haas either, Philipp Kohlschreiber should be able to shoulder the load against Rik de Voest and Izak Van Der Merwe.
The match-up between Sweden and Italy could be interesting. Italy has a pair (or perhaps a trio) of midlevel players, while Sweden has one top five player. In the Davis Cup format, you might prefer to have a few good players rather than just one great one (just ask Australian or Great Britain) but I'm not so sure.
I'll admit to being unable to muster too much excitement about the other two ties being contested this weekend. But I lean towards Brazil over Indian (Tomaz Bellucci is headed for the top 20) and I have no idea who's going to win between Romania and Ecuador, but no matter who wins, everybody else in the World Group is hoping to get them in the first round.
US Open Wrap-Up
This is a bit belated, but now that the U.S. Open is over, we can look back on things with some more perspective. Obviously, the tournament was an unqualified success for Rafael Nadal, who completed his career grand slam, won his third consecutive major tournament, and put himself in the conversation among the greatest players of all time. Really, a stunning fortnight for him - and while he may not have had to face his toughest opponents on the way, but neither did Federer when he won his French Open. You can't blame Nadal for not being able to beat Federer this year - he beat everyone who he was supposed to, and that's all he needed to do.
Novak Djokovic had an amazing week as well, after nearly buckling in the first round to compatriot Viktor Troicki, he was fading in the heat and looked down for the count. But the sun started setting, he got a second wind, and rode it all the way through to the final. He thoroughly outplayed Federer in the semifinal match, but he still just barely won it. It's the best he's played since he lost to Nadal during the clay-court season in 2009, in the greatest three-set match ever played. But even with the aid of the weather, it wasn't enough to challenge Nadal in the final. But then again, we can only ask so much of one player.
Which may be part of the explanation for Federer's fall in the semis. Even though he almost won the match, he was the second-best player for the whole encounter. He was hitting way too many errors and not serving well enough to have expected any other result. But really, how could anyone have expected him to make another U.S. Open final? I guess we might have, since that's one record he didn't own - Lendl still (and probably always will) have the record for consecutive U.S. Open finals. Federer was probably spoiled by having relatively easy competition straight through to his semifinal - his only potentially tricky opponent, Soderling, he was able to take on in absolutely ideal conditions. That's not to say that he didn't play brilliantly in that match, but he may have gotten to Djokovic and started thinking about the final before he had dispatched the Serb. And though I wouldn't have expected it, the Djoker rose to the occasion and played spoiler. Still, a fine summer for Federer, despite not making the final here.
Everybody else, on the other hand, has some work to do in the last part of the season to make up for their disappointing Summers' ends. Well, Youzhny probably can take a break - and maybe Wawrinka, who played amazing tennis but wore himself out. But Andy Murray was passive and petulant in his loss to the other Swiss player, and he's gone another year without his maiden grand slam title. His game is brilliant, his talent is unquestionable - but his tactics are sometimes less than ideal, and his attitude is often the thing that brings him down.
Andy Roddick's showing was even worse - I'm honestly getting tired of hearing him say that his plan, going into the match, was to let his opponent miss. "There's no way he can keep this up," is his mantra after so many grand slam losses. I'm thinking back to Kohlschreiber at the Australian Open, Gasquet at Wimbledon, Lu at Wimbledon this year, or the other time that Tipsarevic beat Roddick, also at Wimbledon. But it's terrible to come out after the match and say that he successfully executed his strategy in that match, because if that's his strategy, then any player can play an hour and a half of brilliant tennis and beat him. Sometimes, he needs to be able to win matches, not just allow other players to lose them. Tipsarevic himself said as much, talking about how nobody fears Roddick from the baseline anymore. Andy's out of the top ten once again, though he's still in the top eight in the year-to-date race, so he has a chance of making the year-end championships in London, with a couple good showings at the last two Masters events. But he needs to tweak his gameplan for the big matches, or else he's going to keep getting blown off the court.
Fortunately for Andy, the other Americans did well enough at the tournament to draw attention away from his poor performance on court and worse, his fairly childish reaction to a line judge. Of course, she was stupid too, (we should all be able to tell our right from our left) but her foot fault call was correct. Anyway, Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey both had good runs - one young player and one vet, and another pair had promising showings despite trouble with an injury or an unlucky draw. I'm looking at you, Isner and Blake. Despite not having any Americans in the top ten, we still have players who can win tournaments and be in the conversation - and we'll have one back in the top ten soon enough. There were a handful of performances from really young players that were just amazing - teen Ryan Harrison played great tennis, but choked on the verge of a famous victory. And the 17-year old Jack Sock may have lost in the first round of the main draw, but he won the junior title to become the first U.S. Champ in the boys' event since Andy Roddick. This is not all bad news.
There's still a lot to play for this year - two more Masters events and a handful of 250s and 500s. The Asian swing and the European indoor swing, two oft-overlooked but still great parts of the season. In the coming years, watch for the Asian swing to become more important, not less. I'd keep an eye on the young Japanese player, Kei Nishikori, this year - he played great at the U.S. Open, upsetting Marin Cilic, and he should be back in the top hundred by the time this year is over.
Novak Djokovic had an amazing week as well, after nearly buckling in the first round to compatriot Viktor Troicki, he was fading in the heat and looked down for the count. But the sun started setting, he got a second wind, and rode it all the way through to the final. He thoroughly outplayed Federer in the semifinal match, but he still just barely won it. It's the best he's played since he lost to Nadal during the clay-court season in 2009, in the greatest three-set match ever played. But even with the aid of the weather, it wasn't enough to challenge Nadal in the final. But then again, we can only ask so much of one player.
Which may be part of the explanation for Federer's fall in the semis. Even though he almost won the match, he was the second-best player for the whole encounter. He was hitting way too many errors and not serving well enough to have expected any other result. But really, how could anyone have expected him to make another U.S. Open final? I guess we might have, since that's one record he didn't own - Lendl still (and probably always will) have the record for consecutive U.S. Open finals. Federer was probably spoiled by having relatively easy competition straight through to his semifinal - his only potentially tricky opponent, Soderling, he was able to take on in absolutely ideal conditions. That's not to say that he didn't play brilliantly in that match, but he may have gotten to Djokovic and started thinking about the final before he had dispatched the Serb. And though I wouldn't have expected it, the Djoker rose to the occasion and played spoiler. Still, a fine summer for Federer, despite not making the final here.
Everybody else, on the other hand, has some work to do in the last part of the season to make up for their disappointing Summers' ends. Well, Youzhny probably can take a break - and maybe Wawrinka, who played amazing tennis but wore himself out. But Andy Murray was passive and petulant in his loss to the other Swiss player, and he's gone another year without his maiden grand slam title. His game is brilliant, his talent is unquestionable - but his tactics are sometimes less than ideal, and his attitude is often the thing that brings him down.
Andy Roddick's showing was even worse - I'm honestly getting tired of hearing him say that his plan, going into the match, was to let his opponent miss. "There's no way he can keep this up," is his mantra after so many grand slam losses. I'm thinking back to Kohlschreiber at the Australian Open, Gasquet at Wimbledon, Lu at Wimbledon this year, or the other time that Tipsarevic beat Roddick, also at Wimbledon. But it's terrible to come out after the match and say that he successfully executed his strategy in that match, because if that's his strategy, then any player can play an hour and a half of brilliant tennis and beat him. Sometimes, he needs to be able to win matches, not just allow other players to lose them. Tipsarevic himself said as much, talking about how nobody fears Roddick from the baseline anymore. Andy's out of the top ten once again, though he's still in the top eight in the year-to-date race, so he has a chance of making the year-end championships in London, with a couple good showings at the last two Masters events. But he needs to tweak his gameplan for the big matches, or else he's going to keep getting blown off the court.
Fortunately for Andy, the other Americans did well enough at the tournament to draw attention away from his poor performance on court and worse, his fairly childish reaction to a line judge. Of course, she was stupid too, (we should all be able to tell our right from our left) but her foot fault call was correct. Anyway, Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey both had good runs - one young player and one vet, and another pair had promising showings despite trouble with an injury or an unlucky draw. I'm looking at you, Isner and Blake. Despite not having any Americans in the top ten, we still have players who can win tournaments and be in the conversation - and we'll have one back in the top ten soon enough. There were a handful of performances from really young players that were just amazing - teen Ryan Harrison played great tennis, but choked on the verge of a famous victory. And the 17-year old Jack Sock may have lost in the first round of the main draw, but he won the junior title to become the first U.S. Champ in the boys' event since Andy Roddick. This is not all bad news.
There's still a lot to play for this year - two more Masters events and a handful of 250s and 500s. The Asian swing and the European indoor swing, two oft-overlooked but still great parts of the season. In the coming years, watch for the Asian swing to become more important, not less. I'd keep an eye on the young Japanese player, Kei Nishikori, this year - he played great at the U.S. Open, upsetting Marin Cilic, and he should be back in the top hundred by the time this year is over.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
US Open - Super Saturday
In just the three matches we had today, the full gamut of tennis competitiveness was on display. We had one match which was a complete fiasco, in which one of the players didn't even show up mentally and was never even on the same court as the eventual winner. We had one match where it was a tightly-contested affair, with both players achieving a good level of tennis, but one was simply the better player today, and despite some moments of brief tension, the outcome was never really in doubt. And we had one match that was utterly topsy-turvy, but when it all came together near the end, both players reached an astonishing level of play, and it wasn't clear until the last point was played just who was going to come away with the victory. It was without question a classic match, one of the best of this year's Open, if not the entire year.
Of course, the first refers to the women's final, where Vera Zvonareva managed to be as much of a headcase as she'd been in the past. Credit to her for getting this far, but she really couldn't hold herself together in the pressure of the final, unfortunately. Kim Clijsters played good tennis, with a 17-15 winner to unforced error ratio, but her opponent was at a mere 6-24. It's a shame for Vera, who played unbelievably well to get her, to stumble at this stage once again. There must be something wrong with the Russian tennis development system to produce players with so much skill who have so many problems in situations like these. Dinara Safina, anyone?
The second was the contest between Mikhail Youzhny and Rafael Nadal. The Russian didn't play bad tennis by any means. He played a strong match, considering how much he had to play recently, compared to how fresh Nadal must have been. But Youzhny just didn't have the game to handle Nadal today. He managed one short-lived, last-minute surge of great play to break Nadal in the third set, but was quickly broken back and lost the match. No shame in that, he was just beaten by the better player - short of breaking Rafa's knee with his racket, I don't know what Youzhny could have done out there today.
The third match was a great one. I don't think it was a match for the ages - any match where one of the players loses sets 6-1 and 6-2 could have been a lot closer and more even throughout, but the fifth set was one of the best moments of the Open this year. Federer made a big push at just the moment that you thought he would, having essentially given away the fourth set - while Novak was serving to stay in the match. He got up 15-40, giving himself a pair of match points. Despite having some rough patches of play, it looked like Federer was going to close it out and face Nadal in the final. Everything was going according to the script.
But apparently, Djokovic hadn't read it. Down two match points, he blasted three straight winners - and not just winners, but stone-cold winners, blasted at ridiculous velocity passed a stunned Federer. To make those shots under any circumstances would have been impressive, but to make them down match point in the semifinal of a grand slam against Roger Federer - that's just sick. And Djokovic was apparently so pumped up by it that he was able to break Federer in the next game and serve out the match. Really stunning display by Novak, who hasn't had a performance even close to this one since winning the Aussie Open back in 2008.
That said, I would be shocked if Djokovic can beat Nadal in tomorrow's final. After the monumental effort he had to put forth in the semis, he still gets to play the world's top player with essentially no rest. Nadal still hasn't lost a set and has had a pretty clear path to the final. He'll be fresh and eager to put his stamp on history, and a physically and mentally exhausted Djokovic is exactly who he'll hope to see on the other side of the net. Nadal won't go on walkabout for a set or two at a time the way Federer did. He won't spray his forehand all over the place deep in the fifth set - or any set, for that matter.
It would be one of the greatest performances in tennis history if Djokovic could come back from this and beat Federer tomorrow. I don't see it happening.
Of course, the first refers to the women's final, where Vera Zvonareva managed to be as much of a headcase as she'd been in the past. Credit to her for getting this far, but she really couldn't hold herself together in the pressure of the final, unfortunately. Kim Clijsters played good tennis, with a 17-15 winner to unforced error ratio, but her opponent was at a mere 6-24. It's a shame for Vera, who played unbelievably well to get her, to stumble at this stage once again. There must be something wrong with the Russian tennis development system to produce players with so much skill who have so many problems in situations like these. Dinara Safina, anyone?
The second was the contest between Mikhail Youzhny and Rafael Nadal. The Russian didn't play bad tennis by any means. He played a strong match, considering how much he had to play recently, compared to how fresh Nadal must have been. But Youzhny just didn't have the game to handle Nadal today. He managed one short-lived, last-minute surge of great play to break Nadal in the third set, but was quickly broken back and lost the match. No shame in that, he was just beaten by the better player - short of breaking Rafa's knee with his racket, I don't know what Youzhny could have done out there today.
The third match was a great one. I don't think it was a match for the ages - any match where one of the players loses sets 6-1 and 6-2 could have been a lot closer and more even throughout, but the fifth set was one of the best moments of the Open this year. Federer made a big push at just the moment that you thought he would, having essentially given away the fourth set - while Novak was serving to stay in the match. He got up 15-40, giving himself a pair of match points. Despite having some rough patches of play, it looked like Federer was going to close it out and face Nadal in the final. Everything was going according to the script.
But apparently, Djokovic hadn't read it. Down two match points, he blasted three straight winners - and not just winners, but stone-cold winners, blasted at ridiculous velocity passed a stunned Federer. To make those shots under any circumstances would have been impressive, but to make them down match point in the semifinal of a grand slam against Roger Federer - that's just sick. And Djokovic was apparently so pumped up by it that he was able to break Federer in the next game and serve out the match. Really stunning display by Novak, who hasn't had a performance even close to this one since winning the Aussie Open back in 2008.
That said, I would be shocked if Djokovic can beat Nadal in tomorrow's final. After the monumental effort he had to put forth in the semis, he still gets to play the world's top player with essentially no rest. Nadal still hasn't lost a set and has had a pretty clear path to the final. He'll be fresh and eager to put his stamp on history, and a physically and mentally exhausted Djokovic is exactly who he'll hope to see on the other side of the net. Nadal won't go on walkabout for a set or two at a time the way Federer did. He won't spray his forehand all over the place deep in the fifth set - or any set, for that matter.
It would be one of the greatest performances in tennis history if Djokovic could come back from this and beat Federer tomorrow. I don't see it happening.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
US Open Day 12
The women's semifinals took place today, and they were pretty surprising. Three of the four players were shaky and off their game today - and the one who wasn't was Vera Zvonareva. Top seed Caroline Wozniacki played her first shaky match of the tournament, and the Russian was there to capitalize. Credit to Vera, who played a very strong, solid match from a player who hasn't been known for her consistency in the past, but Wozniacki was strangely not present today. For somebody who has played so solid from day one against some very tough opponents in an array of conditions, I'm not sure what it was that got to her today. But Zvonareva has emerged as one of the best stories of the tournament, since she's made consecutive grand slam finals and has emerged as the Russian. No small feat for a player who was bawling on the court last year, tearing off her own leg strappings after missing six match points against Flavia Pennetta.
And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.
Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.
As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.
The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.
Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!
And she'll get Kim Clijsters in the final, but after their performances today, I'd like Zvonareva's chances against the two-time champion here. Because Kim and Venus were both shaky today - lots of double faults in key situations from both players. In the second-set tiebreak, Venus's play suddenly became riddled with unforced errors, and she basically gave the set away. Then in the third, Clijsters did the same thing while serving for the match! Very strange performance by both players, on such a big stage.
Honestly, given the way that Kim played yesterday, and the way that Vera did, I have to like the Russian's chances to win her first major tomorrow, and become the first Russian to take home a major title since Kuznetsova last year. Normally, Clijsters would be far and away the favorite, but based on their respective semifinal performances, it's hard to favor the Belgian.
As for the men's semifinals, they appear to be a bit more straightforward. Youzhny faces Nadal, and even though the Russian beat Nadal here, Rafa has since become a different player on this surface. He's managed his schedule better this year, so he comes into the US Open much fitter and on sturdier knees. Rafa is rolling, having won the last 19 matches at majors, and I don't expect this veteran Russian to be able to trouble him tomorrow.
The other semifinal is less straightforward, as Djokovic holds a 5-10 record against Roger. But he's only beaten him once at a Grand Slam, and that was at the Australian Open when Fed was suffering from mono. Djoker has played solid tennis against lower-ranked players this whole year, but he hasn't been able to step up against top players. He's only made a single final, and he won that - but it was in Dubai, where the competition wasn't quite what he can expect tomorrow.
Really, all signs point to a Rafa-Raja final, which is really what everyone (except Djokovic and Youzhny) wants, so let's go ahead with the tennis!
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