Friday, January 8, 2010

Davydenko on top - Semifinals Week 1

While Soderling's loss to Ginepri may have been the first big upset of the year, the first time the world number one loses is always an upset, just by definition. Federer's loss to Davydenko may have been less surprising, since the Russian just won their most recent meeting at the World Tour Finals at the end of last season, but it is a bit unexpected since Federer had a 12-0 record against him before that.

In the first set, Nikolay put 100% of his first serves into play. Twenty-seven out of twenty-seven, which is just an unbelievable statistic. Davydenko gets Nadal in the final, who breezed past Serbian Viktor Troicki. They also played at the last event in 2009, and Davydenko came out on top. Although I've been a doubter in the past, the Russian may finally be developing the confidence to really make a run to a grand slam title. If he handles Nadal as well as he took care of Federer, it'll definitely put him in contention at the Aussie Open.

The semifinals at all four events this week were all populated by top 5 seeds. In Doha, 4th seed Youzhny was missing. In Chennai, it was top seed Soderling. But in Brisbane, all four top seeds have made it this far. Berdych had his hands full with Tomaz Bellucci, but his experience got him through in three. That said, this was one of the best matches I've seen Bellucci play, and he was just points from victory. I think he has the potential to be a top-ten player.

The other quarter in Brisbane was billed as a tougher contest, but was actually less competitive. Roddick and Gasquet both played well in a match that featured tremendous serving, clutch volleying, and and superb shot-making from the back of the court, as well. But Roddick managed a break in the first set (needing eight chances to do so) and then secured the match in the second-set tiebreak. The Frenchman is playing well, but he has yet to return to his top form. Roddick will play Berdych in the semis, and the pair has a close head-to-head record. It should be a good match.

Also in Brisbane, the women's final has been decided, and it was the match-up that everyone was hoping for. Kim Clijsters will take on her compatriot Justine Henin, back to a final in her first tournament in nearly two years. They've played a great deal in the past, with Henin coming out on top more often than not, but you have to give the edge to Clijsters based solely on recent form.

There's a third Belgian woman in a final this week, amazingly. Yanina Wickmayer will face top-seeded Flavia Pennetta in Auckland. It's good to see her shaking off the minor drug scandal that could have proved to be quite a distraction at the end of last season.

In Chennai, Janko Tipsarevic, who has been frustrated by the success of his compatriot Djokovic (or at least his own relative lack of it) beat young Dutch player Thiemo De Bakker, who has had an amazing run in his first tournament of the year. He'll playing defending champ Marin Cilic in the semis, for the privilege of playing the winner of Dudi Sela and Stan Wawrinka. It's tough to bet against a Wawrinka-Cilic final at this point, but as we've seen, upsets do happen.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Scheduling is a mess...

... when you've got tennis taking place in places that are ten hours apart. In my current time zone, the tennis in Auckland starts at around 6 PM, Brisbane starts at 6:30, Chennai starts at 6 AM, and Doha starts at 7. It's tough to figure out how to watch all of that and still find time to sleep! I'm glad I caught as much as I did yesterday, though.

Brisbane is where all the action is. Justine Henin's comeback continues, and she's into the semifinals, where she'll play Ana Ivanovic, which is definitely the dream match-up for the bottom half of the draw. Both players have been doing well, and even though she may be rusty, I'm inclined to give this one to Justine based on experience. She managed to pull out a tight one against Melinda Czink, squandering five (possible six) match points before winning in a third-set tiebreaker.

Another player who squeaked through in a third-set breaker was James Blake, who saved three match points against Marc Gicquel before winning 10-8. Blake played very well, and was a bit more patient than I'd seen him be in these types of tight matches. He was still blowing winners by Gicquel whenever he gets the chance, but he took the time to set up more points than I'm used to seeing. That's a positive for Blake. His first real test comes tonight, though, when he plays Frenchman Gael Monfils. I don't care how late it is, I'm staying up to watch it, since it's a match between two of the best shotmakers in the game. And Monfils has been struggling in his first two rounds, playing six sets and four tiebreaks.

Another high-quality match in Brisbane was Andy Roddick against Carsten Ball. Ball did not play like a challenger-regular whose ranking has never dipped inside the top hundred. For twelve games in the first set and then seven games in the second, there was very little to choose between these two players. However, Roddick showed his variety and his experience in the tiebreak, winning all seven points, and then breaking Ball in the second set before serving out the match. Despite the loss, it should be an encouraging performance for Carsten. No doubt we'll see the big-serving lefty again.

I have to say that the matches in the other three tournaments taking place this week haven't really been at the same level. Most of the players in Chennai and Doha cruised over the past few days, particularly the big three in Doha. However, two of them face their first challenge in the next round, potentially. Federer goes up against Ernests Gulbis, and Davydenko takes on Ivo Karlovic. I expect that both of them will come through those matches, but there's an outside chance of an upset in each.

There were a few matches that had the potential to be exciting, but then didn't deliver. After beating DeHeart in the first round, Younes El Aynaoui excited everyone about his potential to play Nadal, but his body just didn't hold up, and he was vanquished easily by Belgian qualifier Steve Darcis. In Chennai, local hopeful beat former top-ten player Rainer Schuettler in the first round, only to be shut down by Janko Tipsarevic 2 and 1.

American Wayne Odesnik looked to be challenging defending champ Radek Stepanek in Brisbane as well, breaking the wily Czech and serving for the first set. But Odesnik seemed to tweak something in his back, and from that point on, he was never in the match. Additionally, he seemed to repeatedly forget that Brisbane didn't have the hawkeye challenge system in play, and had to be reminded by the umpire twice.

As we move into the final rounds of this first week of the season, I have to wonder how I got by without tennis for two months.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

First big upset of the year!

Ah, the tennis season is officially underway, now. We've had the first match with a really big and unexpected upset. Robin Soderling, the top seed in Chennai, was in such good form at the end of last season and at the exhibition at the beginning of this year, that I don't think I even mentioned his first-round match against world number 100 Robbie Ginepri. It's clear that was an oversight on my part, because Ginepri has proven in the past that he can occasionally produce the form that allows him to play with the best in the world, and it was on display when he ousted Soderling in straight sets. It's too early to call it a comeback, but it would be nice to see Ginepri put together a couple of good matches this week.

The other interesting result from Chennai was from the rematch of last year's semifinal-that-never-was. Rainer Schuettler withdrew with injury, giving Somdev Devvarman a place in the final. This year, Devvarman again received a wildcard, and again made good use of it by beating the German in straight sets. Can he make it back to the final again, this year?

Another wildcard who is doing very well for himself is Younes el Aynaoui in Doha. Now 38 years old, Aynaoui beat American Ryler DeHeart in two tiebreak sets. This made him the oldest player to win a match on tour since Jimmy Connors in 1995. That's quite a record to have. Aynaoui has a bit of luck, since his second-round opponent is another qualifier, since Steve Darcis beat eighth seed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. If he makes it to the third round, he may face Nadal.

Speaking of the top three seeds in Doha, Nadal, Federer, and Davydenko all cruised through their matches. This was expected, of course, but it was good to see each of them playing in such fine form. Granted, their opponents may not have been the best set of opponents to demonstrate how they're feeling at the start of this season, but these wins are no doubt encouraging. Each should have a sterner test in their next round, so we can see if they're on the collision course they appear to be on.

In Brisbane, there were some excellent matches yesterday. Sam Querrey and James Blake played in what could have been a changing of the guard, but Blake refused to play along with that storyline. After getting broken in the first set, he started smacking his forehand to places where Querrey could never reach it. Granted, Sam played a little passive, possibly assuming that James would start hitting errors eventually, but Blake stuck to his guns, and ended up winning in three. But Querrey played well, and he did not seem to be too affected by his injury. Also worthy of note is that the Querrey-Blake match was 5-6, 6-4, 6-4 and took only an hour and twenty-eight minutes. This may have been the quickest 31 game match of all-time.

For reference, Mardy Fish lost a tight match to Marcos Baghdatis 7-5, 7-5, and those 24 games took an hour and forty-one minutes. Taylor Dent lost a crackerjack to Frenchman Gael Monfils 7-6(1), 6-7(5), 6-2. Hopefully, both Fish and Dent will be inspired by how close these losses were, rather than frustrated. Those were just unlucky first-round opponents, and both players should do better this season.

Australian Qualifier Matthew Ebden (who I'll admit I know nothing about) upset sixth-seeded Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, which gives him a match-up against Richard Gasquet. The winner of that match will play the winner of Andy Roddick and Carsten Ball. Now Carsten has never had a win comparable to a player like Roddick, but Andy's knee has apparently been bothering him. I'm hoping for a Roddick-Gasquet faceoff in the third round, and I imagine the tournament organizers are, too. Despite the fact that it calls for two Australians to lose.

There were a few notable upsets in the doubles, as Jeremy Chardy made up for his disappointing loss in the first round to Alejandro Falla by teaming with Marc Gicquel to beat third seeds Knowle and Lindstedt. While that is an impressive result, it's nothing compared to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Albert Montanes topping top-seeded Daniel Nestor and Nenad Zimonjic in straight sets! As the second-ranked team after the Bryans, this is not the way the pair was hoping to start their 2010 campaign.

Some good tennis to be played yet, too! It's just started in Brisbane, and as the sun moves across the sky, I'll be able to follow the tennis to India and then to Qatar. If schedules hold up and I can stay awake, I may be able to watch tennis for the next sixteen hours straight. Can't beat that, huh?

Monday, January 4, 2010

Week 1 - Justine Henin's Comeback Underway

The first truly significant event of the 2010 season has occurred, and it went just as most people expected. Justine Henin, after more than 15 months away from professional tennis, didn't look rusty at all in her first match back on tour, against number 2 seed Nadia Petrova. The only part of her game that wasn't quite on was her serve. In the first set, she was serving at only 40%, and she started off worse than that. She ended up at 47% for the match, so she was getting back into her groove. Even though she was missing a lot of first serves, it was very effective when she got it in. She hit six aces and lost only three points off that shot during the entire match.

Petrova did not play poorly, either. She served at 70% with only one double fault, and there were some excellent rallies, but in the end Henin's touch and movement made her just too strong. She'll next face the qualifier Sesil Karatantcheva, whose name you'll be forgiven for not recognizing. Henin shouldn't have any trouble until she reaches the quarters, where she has a chance of facing Ana Ivanovic, who had a good win against Jelena Dokic in the first round. Ivanovic is trying to get back to her top form after a poor 2009, and a deep run in this tournament would get that underway nicely. Both are on the opposite side of the draw from Kim Clijsters, who breezed through her opening round, so that could be a blockbuster final.

The other notable results on the women's side are the wins by two wildcards in Auckland. Thirty-nine year old Kimiko Date Krumm defeated Chakvetadze while giving up only three games. Additionally, Yanina Wickmeyer defeated Julia Goerges in two, having had no apparent ill effects from the doping (well, testing) scandal at the end of last season. Her countryman Xavier Malisse did not fare quite as well, losing in the final round of qualifying in Brisbane.

There were some interesting results from the qualifying rounds, though. American minor-leaguer Ryler DeHeart, who faced Nadal in the U.S. Open in 2008, beat second qualifying seed Karol Beck. He's rewarded with a match against 38-year old Younes el Aynaoui, which is a winnable match. Yuki Bhambri, a spectacular junior champion from 2009, lost in the final round of the quallies in Chennai to the same Irish player who beat Donald Young, Louk Sorenson.

Also in Chennai, Thiemo de Bakker beat Rajeev Ram in a rout, the 21-year old Dutch player winning 6-1, 6-1 against the eighth seed. Winning so easily is impressive, since de Bakker has mostly played on the challenger tour, and has an ATP record of only 9-13. Maybe this will be his breakout year. He'll likely Janko Tipsarevic in the third round, as the Serbian beat former world number one Carlos Moya in the first. Defending champ Marin Cilic also won, and he's in that half of the draw.

In Doha, Ernests Gulbis won his first-round match, and if this year is going to be anything like last year, that means he'll lose in round two. Ivo Karlovic also won his first round against Fabio Fognini, but here's an interesting stat - Dr. Ivo only had seven aces in 10 service games, while Andy Roddick had 15 during his win over Peter Luczak in Brisbane. This may be the only time during the course of the year when the American leads in the ace race.

One last thing to note - the Hopman cup has not gone well for the Americans, with Oudin and Isner losing both their singles matches and their doubles match to the Spaniards. Isner's match with Robredo was a tough one, with two out of the three sets going to tiebreaks, but the big-serving American couldn't quite pull it out, in the end.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Tennis 2010 Week 1 - Looking at the Draws

In my last post, I forgot to look at the two women's tournaments that kick the first week of the season off, as well. This was a mistake for a number of reasons, the most exciting of which is that the women's tournament in Brisbane features the return of former number one and seven-time grand slam winner Justine Henin. She opens her comeback with a tough match, facing second seed and twentieth-ranked Nadia Petrova in the first round. I'm sure the Belgian would have preferred somebody a little lower in the rankings, since she may well be rusty after nearly two years off.

However, if she can get past Petrova (Justine does lead their head-to-head 11-2), then she should find herself with relatively smoother sailing. If she makes it all the way to the final, she has a chance of facing Kim Clijsters, who is the top seed for the event! If they play in the final, I expect they'll play a few more times over the course of the year. The other first-round match to keep an eye on is Ana Ivanovic against Jelena Dokic. I'd expect the winner of that match to make the semis.

The other women's tournament of week 1, in Auckland, does not feature as much star power, but it still has some fascinating storylines to watch. My favorite is the continued resurgence of Japanese player Kimiko Date Krumm, whose return from retirement is really much more impressive than Henin's. She opens against Chakvetadze. The other interesting storyline here features the top two Italian players, Schiavone and Pennetta (the number one seed), who are hoping they can build on their Fed Cup win last year by starting 2010 off strong.

Moving on to the men's tourneys, the field in Chennai is arguably the weakest. When world #79 Rajeev Ram is your eighth seed, you know that you don't have the toughest draw in the world. Top seed Soderling shouldn't have too much trouble marching through, despite the presence of some tough players. Former world number 1 Carlos Moya was given a wildcard to the event, and he faces Tipsarevic in the first round. Number eight seed Ram faces the Dutch young player Thiemo De Bakker, who is playing his tenth tour-level match. Last year's finalist and local hope Somdev Devvarman opens with the semifinal that he would have played last year, if Rainer Schuettler hadn't withdrawn with an injury. And defending champion Marin Cilic is the number two seed. All signs point to a Cilic-Soderling final, but of course, anything can happen.

By the way, Soderling ended up losing to Nadal in the final of the Abu Dhabi exhibition event, in two tough sets. That's impressive, since the Swede won their last match comfortably at the year-end championships. Nadal may have been able to use the time off (brief though it was) to get back to fighting fit form. Meanwhile, Federer had to play a consolation match for third place against Ferrer, which he easily won. Guess that invalidates my theory about Federer not giving it his all against Soderling so he could get ready for Doha, doesn't it?

The draw at Doha has three real contenders and a handful of dangerous, slightly crazy, but very entertaining mid-level players. Federer, Nadal, and Davydenko are the one, two, and three seeds. Gulbis, Karlovic, and Koellerer are all scattered throughout the draw, along with 38-year old Younes El Aynaoui, who was given a wildcard. He was playing on the Champions tour last year! He opens against a qualifier, which is about as much as he could hope for. It seems unreasonable to bet against a Federer-Nadal final here, though. Particularly since defending champ Andy Murray opted not to return and instead played in the Hopman Cup.

In Brisbane, on the men's side, Roddick seems to be the number one seed mostlikely to lose before the final. The health of his knee is still a question mark, and there are a ton of lurkers in the draw. Big-serving Aussie lefty Carsten Ball could be Roddick's second round opponent, and he could be followed by Jarkko Nieminen or Richard Gasquet, who are playing one of the most enticing opening round matches.

Other opening rounds to watch are Sam Querrey-James Blake, Marcos Baghdatis-Mardy Fish, and Gael Monfils-Taylor Dent. As if that weren't enough, the draw also features defending champ Radek Stepanek, the other great Aussie hope Bernard Tomic, Thomaz Bellucci from Brazil and Jeremy Chardy from France. This tournament could unfold any number of ways, and it's much harder to get a sense of who will come out on top than at the other two tournaments this week.

2010 Tennis Season Underway!

After a long and lonely off-season, the 2010 tennis season officially begins this week. There are three official tournaments during week one: Brisbane, Chennai, and Doha. Meanwhile, there's the Hopman Cup mixed-doubles event in Perth as well. Not to mention last week, the Capitala World Tennis Championship exhibition took place in Abu Dhabi. The season really starts with a bang, doesn't it? Beginning next week, the entire tour becomes focused in Australia as things build up towards the first major of the year, but for one week, the players remain scattered across the globe.

First of all, looking back at last week's pre-season exhibition in Abu Dhabi, there is one very interesting result. Robin Soderling managed to find a way to beat Roger Federer in the semifinals, after losing twelve consecutive times to the Swiss maestro. While this is undoubtedly a thrilling result for Robin, Roger may have already pocketed his appearance fee and decided to head off to his next tourney. The sad truth is that these exhibition wins often don't make that much difference. Roddick beat Fed at Kooyong in 2007, but then won only six games when they played just a few weeks later at the Aussie Open.

Speaking of Roddick, he's the top seed at the tournament in Brisbane, which features the majority of the American and Australian players, save for Aussie number one Hewitt, who's at the Hopman Cup. The first week of the season is always fascinating, because you get to see how players who were injured at the end of last season have recovered, or whether those who finished the year on a tear can maintain their momentum. Roddick is hoping to have fully recovered from the knee injury which cut his season short. Brisbane also features Mardy Fish, Sam Querrey, and Taylor Dent, all recently injured Americans who hope to start 2009 off well. There are quite a few dangerous floaters in the draw, as well. Look for a more in-depth draw analysis tomorrow.

Moving westward to India, the Chennai tournament will struggle to be as exciting this year as it was in 2009. That was the year that local wildcard Somdev Devvarman made it through the first three rounds, beating Carlos Moya and Ivo Karlovic in the process, only to get a walkover from Rainer Schuettler in the semis. He lost to Marin Cilic in the final, but what a dream run. Devvarman will be hoping to defend as many points as he can, and Cilic will be hoping to have his first successful title defense of his career.

Further west, in the Middle East, where the money still seems to be flowing despite the world's economic downturn, you will find most of the big dogs. Only three of the world's top six players will be in official action this week, but they will all be in Doha. Federer, Nadal, and Davydenko will all be there, and only Davydenko enters with a winning streak. Can the Russian continue his stupendous form from the end of last year? He was injured early last year, so he has no points to defend. If he plays like he did in the closing months of 2009, he could jump up to the top 3 or 4 in the world. Two of the other most interesting storylines of 2010 will get started here, too: will Nadal's body be able to hold up, what with all of his injuries, and will Federer be able to stay as motivated as he has been in the past, considering how he has accomplished everything he could have set out to do?

The other member of the top six who is playing this week is Britain's Andy Murray, who is playing the Hopman Cup with British teenage phenom Laura Robson. She could meet American sensation Melanie Oudin, if the U.S. And Britain make it to the final. Of course, to do that, they'll each have to win their groups. Or maybe they could meet in the semis. I'm the first to admit that I'm not 100% clear on the way that Hopman Cup works. Regardless, there should be some firecracker matches. Watch for Dementieva to start her season in style.

2010 Statement of Purpose

In 2009, my posting was infrequent. I will maintain a more rigorous schedule in 2010. I will post no fewer than three times each week. I recognize that my content is not sufficiently enthralling for a reader to return if they visit the site expecting new content and finding none on more than one or two occasions.

This blog will not simply state tournament results. Those can be found easily on any number of websites, including www.atpworldtour.com and sports.yahoo.com/ten. While I have done it in the past because it is easy for me to do, there is no point in my retyping the scores from other websites.

This blog will attempt to offer analysis, commentary, and predictions. One of my strengths is in tennis trivia, and I will present interesting and relevant tidbits whenever possible. My other is in numbers, and I will delve into match and player statistics when I think it will prove worthwhile.

This blog will not hate on anyone involved in the sport or treat them unfairly. While I do have my opinions about players, announcers, and commentators, I will strive to maintain an unbiased perspective whenever possible. I will not revel in a player's loss. I consider this akin to cheering unforced errors when at a live match. It is not a classy thing to do.

This blog will focus on bringing attention to the things that are good about the sport. Tennis is the most fascinating individual sport in the world. It has enormous depth and so many angles from which it can be appreciated. It is simply a beautiful game, full of wonderful physicality, strategy, and artistry. I've created this blog because I am enthralled by watching, thinking about, and talking about the game. I just want to share my obsession.