It looked like most of the day would go by without any particularly stunning upsets. Almagro had beaten Bellucci and Verdasco had beaten Cilic, but those matches were always going to be tight. They weren't stunning upsets. Marion Bartoli had beaten Yanina Wickmeyer, but again, they are very close in the rankings and it was tight.
And then, Tomas Berdych produced the upset of the week. He was 1-8 going into this match against Roger Federer, and hadn't won since the Olympics in 2004. Everyone remembers the Czech's epic choke job against the Swiss in the 2009 Australian Open, when he he was up 2 sets to love, and had a point to break and go up 5-4 in the third, so he could serve for the match. He duffed a shot into the net, and from that point on, Federer's comeback never seemed to be in doubt.
Tonight, Berdych started slow, with Federer breaking him in the first game, but the big man stormed back to take the set 6-4 on the strength of two breaks. He was two points from the match in the second set, but ended up losing it in an error-filled tiebreak. The third set also went to a tiebreak, and Federer had match point on his own serve, which Berdych gamely saved with a few of his trademark massive forehands. Then Federer sailed a shot long and it was all over.
Huge, huge win for Berdych. His half of the draw is decimated, as he's eliminated the last real contender for the title. One of the four players left on his side is making it to the final - in addition to Berdych, there is Verdasco, Youzhny, and Soderling. Berdych is the only one who has made it past this stage at a Masters event (except for the Swede, who made the semis in Indian Wells last week) but for all the other players left, this is going to be uncharted territory. It's going to a hard-fought place in the finals, as all four of the remaining players know that they could have a shot at a Masters shield.
The bottom half of the draw is relatively tough, with three top-ten players remaining instead of only one. The only three-set match from the bottom half of the draw today was between Tomaz Bellucci and Nicolas Almagro. Almagro does seem to enjoy being the villain, as he relished in his role against the heavily pro-Brazilian crowd. He'll be even more of an antagonist against Roddick tomorrow, but if he can hit as well as he can, he might trouble the American.
Particularly if Roddick gets out of the gates going as slowly as he did against Becker today. I think that Andy was just late getting to the court, because he dropped serve in his first service game of the match, and saved three break point chances to keep himself from being down 1-5. After saving that, he decided to start playing, so he quickly broke back and ended up winning the set in a tiebreak. That set was nearly a lost cause, so credit Roddick for not giving up and thinking about winning in three. His opponent came off the blocks playing like Boris Becker, not Benjamin, but he couldn't keep up that pace.
The other two matches were slightly less interesting, as Tsonga just bludgeoned Juan Carlos Ferrero off the court and Nadal once again outplayed his good friend and fellow Spaniard David Ferrer on the big points. Lots of grinding, long rallies, few winners, and Nadal on top. About as one would expect. When they face each other, Nadal can expect Tsonga to come to net more often, and to go for his shots a lot more. It could be an entertaining match. After dismantling Nadal in the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2008, Tsonga has gone 0-3 against the Spaniard, but as Berdych demonstrated, those streaks aren't destiny.
Nadal is now the last of the big four remaining, just like last week. I know he'll want to take advantage of it, but he's going to want to start getting ready for the Clay court tournament in Monty Carlo, which is only a week and a half away at this point. That's his bread and butter, and he has a lot of points to defend in the clay court season. There's a lot on Nadal's mind, at this point.
On the women's side, both Belgians are in action tomorrow. Both matches should be interesting becaues of their contrast. Hard-hitting, baseliner Kim Clijsters takes on former doubles specialist and expert volleyer Sam Stosur, while all-court veteran Justine Henin takes on the 20-year old Dane Caroline Wozniacki. I like the Belgians in both matches, but they've shown that they're capable of lapses in focus over the course of the year.
I can say with some certainty that there won't be any Federer-level upsets from this point on; there aren't any players left whose departure would be that much of a surprise!
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Miami Round of 16
At last, we had a day go by without any major upsets on the men's side. The only nominal upset was American Mardy fish over Spaniard Feliciano Lopez, but Fish is so under-ranked thanked to injury, that this match was always going to tight. Other than that, the matches went by ranking on the men's side, though a few were close.
Federer should have taken care of Florent Serra without breaking a sweat. He was up a break in the first set, and up two breaks in the second, but he ended up needing two tiebreaks to win the match. A win is a win, and straight sets is good, but Federer has to be disappointed in squandering such a lead and turning what should have been a blowout into a tight match.
Mikhail Youzhny opted to wait until the second set to show up in his match against Stan Wawrinka. After losing the first set 1-6, he won the second set in a tiebreak and then won the third 7-5. Tough loss for Wawrinka, who just couldn't close out the Russian when the match got tight. Another player who missed out on a big scalp was Jurgen Melzer, who was dominating the match as it entered a second-set tiebreak. After he failed to capitalize, he faded, and Verdasco ran away with the third. Tough losses for both guys.
There were a few upsets on the women's side. Most notably, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova lost to Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli. Kuznetsova has completely failed to capitalize on being the top seed at these two tournaments, not even making the quarterfinals at either Indian Wells or Miami. Tough year so far for last year's French Open champion. There were three other upsets, and two featured Belgians. Justine Henin beat eleventh seed Vera Zvonareva, while Kim Clijsters bludgeoned last year's champ Victoria Azarenka off the court. Sam Stosur also managed to beat last week's winner Jelena Jankovic, but she must have been exhausted.
Tomorrow, the men's remaining 16 players are all in action, so it goes without saying that there are some good matches to look at.
The least interesting match-up going on tomorrow is Tomaz Bellucci against Nicolas Almagro. It should be interesting - Bellucci is a solid young player who still doesn't have that many wins against the big guys, while Almagro can hit anyone off the court, including himself if he's not on during a particular match. This is Almagro's match to win or lose; it's somewhat out of the Brazilian's hands.
The winner of that match will face the winner of Andy Roddick and Benjamin Becker. That is to say, the winner faces Andy Roddick. Becker will have to play the match of his life to beat Roddick tomorrow, which is a possibility. The other chance is that Roddick is just starting to get tired from playing so much tennis, but otherwise, I see the American getting through.
The quarter opposite Roddick is much tighter. JW Tsonga plays against Juan Carlos Ferrero, which is a favorable match-up for the Frenchman, but Ferrero has been playing some excellent tennis in the last six weeks or so, so this could be tight. Another two Spaniards make up the other match to determine the quarterfinal, as Rafael Nadal plays David Ferrer. Ferrer has beaten Nadal twice on hardcourts, but has also lost once. Overall, he's 3-8, so he's definitely the underdog, but expect this to be a tough, grinding match.
In the opposite half of the draw, I think every match could go either way. Mardy Fish really is a real question mark, since he has been injured, but has done a lot of fitness training in his time off. If Youzhny goes off the boil, as he did at the beginning of the match today, then Fish has a real chance of making the quarters. His opponent will be a huge hitter, no matter what. Soderling and Gonzalez should feature some of the most serious ball striking you can ever hope to see. Gonzo is playing for his country in a way that one doesn't usually see outside of Davis Cup or the Olympics, so I give him the slight edge to upset the Swede.
In the opposite quarter, Cilic and Verdasco probably couldn't be any closer. Their record is 2-2. Both have been having good years but haven't had really great results lately. On paper, I give Cilic the advantage, but this is basically a pick-em for me. The last match of the day is Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych, who has managed one big win over Federer that looked like it augered well for his future, and since then, he's lost eight times in a row. He could pull the upset, but he's made a career of underachieving, so there's no real reason to think he won't this time around.
In the Women's game, expect a possible semifinal of three Belgians and Venus Williams. Wozniacki could beat Justine Henin (which might qualify as an upset, even though the Dane is number 2 in the world) but otherwise, that's both what I see in the future and what I hope to be able to watch.
Federer should have taken care of Florent Serra without breaking a sweat. He was up a break in the first set, and up two breaks in the second, but he ended up needing two tiebreaks to win the match. A win is a win, and straight sets is good, but Federer has to be disappointed in squandering such a lead and turning what should have been a blowout into a tight match.
Mikhail Youzhny opted to wait until the second set to show up in his match against Stan Wawrinka. After losing the first set 1-6, he won the second set in a tiebreak and then won the third 7-5. Tough loss for Wawrinka, who just couldn't close out the Russian when the match got tight. Another player who missed out on a big scalp was Jurgen Melzer, who was dominating the match as it entered a second-set tiebreak. After he failed to capitalize, he faded, and Verdasco ran away with the third. Tough losses for both guys.
There were a few upsets on the women's side. Most notably, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova lost to Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli. Kuznetsova has completely failed to capitalize on being the top seed at these two tournaments, not even making the quarterfinals at either Indian Wells or Miami. Tough year so far for last year's French Open champion. There were three other upsets, and two featured Belgians. Justine Henin beat eleventh seed Vera Zvonareva, while Kim Clijsters bludgeoned last year's champ Victoria Azarenka off the court. Sam Stosur also managed to beat last week's winner Jelena Jankovic, but she must have been exhausted.
Tomorrow, the men's remaining 16 players are all in action, so it goes without saying that there are some good matches to look at.
The least interesting match-up going on tomorrow is Tomaz Bellucci against Nicolas Almagro. It should be interesting - Bellucci is a solid young player who still doesn't have that many wins against the big guys, while Almagro can hit anyone off the court, including himself if he's not on during a particular match. This is Almagro's match to win or lose; it's somewhat out of the Brazilian's hands.
The winner of that match will face the winner of Andy Roddick and Benjamin Becker. That is to say, the winner faces Andy Roddick. Becker will have to play the match of his life to beat Roddick tomorrow, which is a possibility. The other chance is that Roddick is just starting to get tired from playing so much tennis, but otherwise, I see the American getting through.
The quarter opposite Roddick is much tighter. JW Tsonga plays against Juan Carlos Ferrero, which is a favorable match-up for the Frenchman, but Ferrero has been playing some excellent tennis in the last six weeks or so, so this could be tight. Another two Spaniards make up the other match to determine the quarterfinal, as Rafael Nadal plays David Ferrer. Ferrer has beaten Nadal twice on hardcourts, but has also lost once. Overall, he's 3-8, so he's definitely the underdog, but expect this to be a tough, grinding match.
In the opposite half of the draw, I think every match could go either way. Mardy Fish really is a real question mark, since he has been injured, but has done a lot of fitness training in his time off. If Youzhny goes off the boil, as he did at the beginning of the match today, then Fish has a real chance of making the quarters. His opponent will be a huge hitter, no matter what. Soderling and Gonzalez should feature some of the most serious ball striking you can ever hope to see. Gonzo is playing for his country in a way that one doesn't usually see outside of Davis Cup or the Olympics, so I give him the slight edge to upset the Swede.
In the opposite quarter, Cilic and Verdasco probably couldn't be any closer. Their record is 2-2. Both have been having good years but haven't had really great results lately. On paper, I give Cilic the advantage, but this is basically a pick-em for me. The last match of the day is Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych, who has managed one big win over Federer that looked like it augered well for his future, and since then, he's lost eight times in a row. He could pull the upset, but he's made a career of underachieving, so there's no real reason to think he won't this time around.
In the Women's game, expect a possible semifinal of three Belgians and Venus Williams. Wozniacki could beat Justine Henin (which might qualify as an upset, even though the Dane is number 2 in the world) but otherwise, that's both what I see in the future and what I hope to be able to watch.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Miami Third Round
This Sunday, the first day of the tournament went by without any major upsets, even though it looked like we might have had one in the making early on, when David Nalbandian managed to take the first set from Rafael Nadal in a very tight tiebreak, only to have Nadal reassert his authority and win the next two sets 6-2, 6-2. Really, an encouraging performance from both players. Good for Nalbandian, for being able to hang with Nadal for one set, and Nadal, for coming back after he's down and keeping the upset bug off his back for another match. I hope to see the Argentine continue to recover, and get him back to the top levels of the game.
Roddick didn't give his opponent a chance to get into the match. He won 76% of his service points and 56% of his points on return, and - most importantly for Roddick - four out of four break point chances. Really, an excellent show from the top American. If he hadn't been playing Ukrainian Sergiy Stakhovsky, it might have really meant something. For Roddick, though, this draw couldn't be opening much better. The only significant upset of the day was Benjamin Becker over Tommy Robredo, who was set to be Roddick's next opponent. Roddick is only 3-0 against Becker, rather than 10-0 against Robredo, but it's still a favorable match-up. In the quarters, he'll get either Almagro or Bellucci, two strong players, but not players you normally expect to meet in the quarterfinals of a tournament of this caliber.
Across the draw from Roddick, things are looking tougher. The two big servers lost, which means the round of 16 features three Spaniards all more suited to clay - Nadal, Ferrer, and Ferrero - and oen Frenchman, JW Tsonga. Tough to pick who's going to come through on that side.
Tomorrow, there are some excellent matches to look forward to. It's tough to see another huge upset in the cards, but there are certainly some tight ones. I'm disappointed to see that Youzhny-Wawrinka is put all the way out on court 2, because that match could be a corker, and whoever wins doesn't have to play Andy Murray to get to the quarters, so they know what's at stake. They'll play the winner of Mardy Fish and Feliciano Lopez, so let's see if Fish can follow up his big upset, or if that had more to do with Murray's lack of performance. Olivier Rochus fell in the next round after downing Djokovic, so that may have really been the Serbian's poor play rather than the Belgian raising his game.
Another potential crackerjack match features Marcos Baghdatis adn Marin Cilic, two of the most winning players on tour so far this year. A Cilic loss would only be a very minor upset, considering his level of play since the Davis Cup break, and considering that Baghdatis upset Federer last week in Indian Wells. Speaking of Federer, he should have no trouble with Frenchman Florent Serra. But once he gets past that match, he'll likely find himself facing Tomas Berdych in the next round, and Berdych, if he puts together a good match, has a chance against the Fed. He had him on the ropes in the 2009 Aussie Open, and I know he'd like another chance.
Verdasco-Melzer and Monaco-Gonzalez are also both potentially interesting matches, and I wouldn't be surprised with either player coming out on top. Gonzalez is playing for more than he usually is, as he is trying to get support and contributions for earthquake relief in Chile. If he makes a run, it could really become the story of the tournament, but it's a bit early for that, so far. Expect Soderling to beat Petzschner without much trouble.
Maybe there wasn't really an upset bug going around this week, but Murray and Djokovic were just feeling the grind of playing at their best, week in and week out. They've been playing a lot of tennis, and maybe they just need a break. We'll see if the time off before the claycourt season starts in earnest is enough for them to get their heads together.
In the meantime, things here at Miami are really interesting. We don't have the big four anymore, but two of them - and no matter what the rankings say, the top two - are still remaining. We could still get a Federer-Nadal final at this point, which would seem appropriate. Whenever people seem to be saying that it's the end of the old guard, that tends to happen. Of course, we could also have another set of surprise finalists. Roddick seems like the surest bet to make it to the semis, but he's got to be tired. Nadal, too. I'm anxious to see how this plays out over the next week.
Roddick didn't give his opponent a chance to get into the match. He won 76% of his service points and 56% of his points on return, and - most importantly for Roddick - four out of four break point chances. Really, an excellent show from the top American. If he hadn't been playing Ukrainian Sergiy Stakhovsky, it might have really meant something. For Roddick, though, this draw couldn't be opening much better. The only significant upset of the day was Benjamin Becker over Tommy Robredo, who was set to be Roddick's next opponent. Roddick is only 3-0 against Becker, rather than 10-0 against Robredo, but it's still a favorable match-up. In the quarters, he'll get either Almagro or Bellucci, two strong players, but not players you normally expect to meet in the quarterfinals of a tournament of this caliber.
Across the draw from Roddick, things are looking tougher. The two big servers lost, which means the round of 16 features three Spaniards all more suited to clay - Nadal, Ferrer, and Ferrero - and oen Frenchman, JW Tsonga. Tough to pick who's going to come through on that side.
Tomorrow, there are some excellent matches to look forward to. It's tough to see another huge upset in the cards, but there are certainly some tight ones. I'm disappointed to see that Youzhny-Wawrinka is put all the way out on court 2, because that match could be a corker, and whoever wins doesn't have to play Andy Murray to get to the quarters, so they know what's at stake. They'll play the winner of Mardy Fish and Feliciano Lopez, so let's see if Fish can follow up his big upset, or if that had more to do with Murray's lack of performance. Olivier Rochus fell in the next round after downing Djokovic, so that may have really been the Serbian's poor play rather than the Belgian raising his game.
Another potential crackerjack match features Marcos Baghdatis adn Marin Cilic, two of the most winning players on tour so far this year. A Cilic loss would only be a very minor upset, considering his level of play since the Davis Cup break, and considering that Baghdatis upset Federer last week in Indian Wells. Speaking of Federer, he should have no trouble with Frenchman Florent Serra. But once he gets past that match, he'll likely find himself facing Tomas Berdych in the next round, and Berdych, if he puts together a good match, has a chance against the Fed. He had him on the ropes in the 2009 Aussie Open, and I know he'd like another chance.
Verdasco-Melzer and Monaco-Gonzalez are also both potentially interesting matches, and I wouldn't be surprised with either player coming out on top. Gonzalez is playing for more than he usually is, as he is trying to get support and contributions for earthquake relief in Chile. If he makes a run, it could really become the story of the tournament, but it's a bit early for that, so far. Expect Soderling to beat Petzschner without much trouble.
Maybe there wasn't really an upset bug going around this week, but Murray and Djokovic were just feeling the grind of playing at their best, week in and week out. They've been playing a lot of tennis, and maybe they just need a break. We'll see if the time off before the claycourt season starts in earnest is enough for them to get their heads together.
In the meantime, things here at Miami are really interesting. We don't have the big four anymore, but two of them - and no matter what the rankings say, the top two - are still remaining. We could still get a Federer-Nadal final at this point, which would seem appropriate. Whenever people seem to be saying that it's the end of the old guard, that tends to happen. Of course, we could also have another set of surprise finalists. Roddick seems like the surest bet to make it to the semis, but he's got to be tired. Nadal, too. I'm anxious to see how this plays out over the next week.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Miami Second Round, Part 2
While the seeds did fare slightly better in today's action, with only four falling rather than five, it still featured one major, major upset. Mardy Fish bucked the trend of American players underperforming by ousting a lackluster defending champion Andy Murray in straight sets. Despite making the finals at the Australian Open earlier this year, Andy Murray has not had the year he was hoping for, and to finish off the first hard court swing of the tour on such a sour note is not going to be encouraging.
Mardy Fish, on the other hand, really needs to build on this victory. Unfortunately, his section of the draw is still killer. He'll face Feliciano Lopez next, and if he can get through that, he'll get the winner of the toughest third-round match in the draw, which features Youzhny and Wawrinka. Fish will need them to wear each other out, unless he really is playing at his best. But beating a top player on an off-day is different than making a deep run, and he'll need to be consistent in order to do that.
The other upsets of the day were less surprising. Gilles Simon and Albert Montanes lost, as did Janko Tipsarevic. But none of them were picked as potential winners of the tournament, so Andy Murray is the real shocker of the day. The upset bug continues to be the story around the ground for a second tournament in a row.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's play, it's tough for me to see as many upsets in the cards, if only because there aren't that many seeds even left to upset. There are matches that could go either way, and feature some excellent players, so I suggest checking them out if you can. Rafael Nadal and David Nalbandian play on center court tomorrow, and if Nalby was ranked as high as he should be, that would be at least a quarterfinal. They have had a good rivalry in the past, and Nalbandian's loss to Nadal at last year's Indian Wells tournament was a thriller. It'll be interesting to see how healthy the Argentine really is in tomorrow's match with Nadal.
Some of the upsetters from the previous round need to see if they can go one further tomorrow, as Olivier Rochus takes on Tomaz Bellucci, and Jeremy Chardy faces Nicolas Almagro. There are also two very interesting matches tomorrow which are mirror images of each other, even though the players facing each other in each match are polar opposites. John Isner takes on Juan Carlos Ferrero while Ivo Karlovic faces David Ferrer. These could be very similar matches, as they appear to be on the surface.
Both Belgians are also in action, and they're both hoping to have a deep run, as they're not going to get many more tournaments this year that don't feature Serena Williams. Also, look for Andy Roddick and JW Tsonga to get through their matches without too much trouble. Or perhaps not - maybe the upset bug as a few matches to tip against the favorite?
Mardy Fish, on the other hand, really needs to build on this victory. Unfortunately, his section of the draw is still killer. He'll face Feliciano Lopez next, and if he can get through that, he'll get the winner of the toughest third-round match in the draw, which features Youzhny and Wawrinka. Fish will need them to wear each other out, unless he really is playing at his best. But beating a top player on an off-day is different than making a deep run, and he'll need to be consistent in order to do that.
The other upsets of the day were less surprising. Gilles Simon and Albert Montanes lost, as did Janko Tipsarevic. But none of them were picked as potential winners of the tournament, so Andy Murray is the real shocker of the day. The upset bug continues to be the story around the ground for a second tournament in a row.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's play, it's tough for me to see as many upsets in the cards, if only because there aren't that many seeds even left to upset. There are matches that could go either way, and feature some excellent players, so I suggest checking them out if you can. Rafael Nadal and David Nalbandian play on center court tomorrow, and if Nalby was ranked as high as he should be, that would be at least a quarterfinal. They have had a good rivalry in the past, and Nalbandian's loss to Nadal at last year's Indian Wells tournament was a thriller. It'll be interesting to see how healthy the Argentine really is in tomorrow's match with Nadal.
Some of the upsetters from the previous round need to see if they can go one further tomorrow, as Olivier Rochus takes on Tomaz Bellucci, and Jeremy Chardy faces Nicolas Almagro. There are also two very interesting matches tomorrow which are mirror images of each other, even though the players facing each other in each match are polar opposites. John Isner takes on Juan Carlos Ferrero while Ivo Karlovic faces David Ferrer. These could be very similar matches, as they appear to be on the surface.
Both Belgians are also in action, and they're both hoping to have a deep run, as they're not going to get many more tournaments this year that don't feature Serena Williams. Also, look for Andy Roddick and JW Tsonga to get through their matches without too much trouble. Or perhaps not - maybe the upset bug as a few matches to tip against the favorite?
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Miami Second Round
Well, the upset bug continues as we've taken the tennis action across the country. In the first day of second round action, which is the first match for the men's seeds, a full third of the seeded players lost. Some of these wins were not all that surprising, as number 30 Viktor Troicki losing to wildcard David Nalbandian, but some were absolute shockers, as number 2 Novak Djokovic losing the shortest player in the top 100, 29-year old Olivier Rochus from Belgium.
Thirty-second seed Julien Benneteau also lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky, but that's not too much of an upset, as he was the second-lowest-ranked seed. Last week's champion, Ivan Ljubicic, was forced to retire in his match against Benjamin Becker, even though he was up a set and a game. Well, it looks like the Croat was feeling his 31 years again, after the thrill of winning last week's title wore off.
The last seeded player to be upset was one of many American players to put in an absolutely dismal showing at the last American hardcourt tournament of the season. Sam Querrey lost to Frenchman Jeremy Chardy after winning the first set. In addition to Querrey, Blake lost to Tomaz Bellucci, also after being up a set. Taylor Dent lost to Nadal, but that's not really that surprising a result. And Melanie Oudin was demolished by Vera Zvonareva 6-1, 6-2.
The only Americans who managed their way to victories were Andy Roddick, who beat Igor Andreev in a routine match, and John Isner, who happened to be playing in a match where it was guaranteed an American would win, as he was facing Michael Russel. He was actually outplayed by Russel and won 14 fewer points over the course of the three set match, but he still managed to win two tiebreaks. Credit Isner as the only American who could find a way to win on a day where conditions were tough and the fans must have been little help. With so many rain delays and crappy weather, anyone who was expecting an excited crowd was disappointed.
It's a shame, because for most of these players, this is their best surface, and this was their best chance for a good result until the middle of the summer. One of the good things about the upset bug that was going around the grounds is that it was Andy Roddick's (formerly Novak Djokovic's) quarter of the draw that was decimated, giving Roddick another good chance at a deep run.
There are some good matches tomorrow, and a few more chances to continue the unbelievable run of upsets that has been the order of the day for the past few weeks. Andy Murray plays Mardy Fish, and it will be interesting to if the upset bug or the American failure bug is more at play in that match. Verdasco has been on a pretty poor run since his hard-court title last month, and he plays another small firecracker like Rochus, Israel's Dudi Sela.
The top seeds are also in action. Svetlana Kuznetsova, who barely survived her first match, plays 27th seed Agnes Szavay of Hungary. Look for a potential upset, there. Roger Federer plays lucky loser Nicolas Lapentti, but don't be on the lookout for that match to end in an upset. It's also interesting to note that Rafael Nadal teams up with a partner I've never seen before to play the Bryan Brothers in doubles tomorrow. They lost in their first outing in Indian Wells, so they're hoping to make a better run at this tournament.
Two possible upsets tomorrow feature recently underachieving seeds taking on a couple of young guns, as Gilles Simon takes on Horacio Zeballos and Tomas Berdych takes on Thiemo De Bakker. Outside chance of an upset in either match. Also watch out for Kevin Anderson taking on Stan Wawrinka, Michael Berrer against Feliciano Lopez, and an extremely low possibility for Australian veteran Peter Luczak to upset Robin Soderling.
It almost seems impossible for this tournament to be as crazy as last week in Indian Wells, but we're off to a good start.
Thirty-second seed Julien Benneteau also lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky, but that's not too much of an upset, as he was the second-lowest-ranked seed. Last week's champion, Ivan Ljubicic, was forced to retire in his match against Benjamin Becker, even though he was up a set and a game. Well, it looks like the Croat was feeling his 31 years again, after the thrill of winning last week's title wore off.
The last seeded player to be upset was one of many American players to put in an absolutely dismal showing at the last American hardcourt tournament of the season. Sam Querrey lost to Frenchman Jeremy Chardy after winning the first set. In addition to Querrey, Blake lost to Tomaz Bellucci, also after being up a set. Taylor Dent lost to Nadal, but that's not really that surprising a result. And Melanie Oudin was demolished by Vera Zvonareva 6-1, 6-2.
The only Americans who managed their way to victories were Andy Roddick, who beat Igor Andreev in a routine match, and John Isner, who happened to be playing in a match where it was guaranteed an American would win, as he was facing Michael Russel. He was actually outplayed by Russel and won 14 fewer points over the course of the three set match, but he still managed to win two tiebreaks. Credit Isner as the only American who could find a way to win on a day where conditions were tough and the fans must have been little help. With so many rain delays and crappy weather, anyone who was expecting an excited crowd was disappointed.
It's a shame, because for most of these players, this is their best surface, and this was their best chance for a good result until the middle of the summer. One of the good things about the upset bug that was going around the grounds is that it was Andy Roddick's (formerly Novak Djokovic's) quarter of the draw that was decimated, giving Roddick another good chance at a deep run.
There are some good matches tomorrow, and a few more chances to continue the unbelievable run of upsets that has been the order of the day for the past few weeks. Andy Murray plays Mardy Fish, and it will be interesting to if the upset bug or the American failure bug is more at play in that match. Verdasco has been on a pretty poor run since his hard-court title last month, and he plays another small firecracker like Rochus, Israel's Dudi Sela.
The top seeds are also in action. Svetlana Kuznetsova, who barely survived her first match, plays 27th seed Agnes Szavay of Hungary. Look for a potential upset, there. Roger Federer plays lucky loser Nicolas Lapentti, but don't be on the lookout for that match to end in an upset. It's also interesting to note that Rafael Nadal teams up with a partner I've never seen before to play the Bryan Brothers in doubles tomorrow. They lost in their first outing in Indian Wells, so they're hoping to make a better run at this tournament.
Two possible upsets tomorrow feature recently underachieving seeds taking on a couple of young guns, as Gilles Simon takes on Horacio Zeballos and Tomas Berdych takes on Thiemo De Bakker. Outside chance of an upset in either match. Also watch out for Kevin Anderson taking on Stan Wawrinka, Michael Berrer against Feliciano Lopez, and an extremely low possibility for Australian veteran Peter Luczak to upset Robin Soderling.
It almost seems impossible for this tournament to be as crazy as last week in Indian Wells, but we're off to a good start.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Miami Preview
I know that action has already started in Miami, but none of the seeds have played yet, so we'll take a look at their placement in the draw. Even if the last Masters Series event ended in a huge surprise, but the winner was still seeded.
Federer, in his loss to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, didn't give the Cypriot much credit. Baggy ended up in the Swiss's quarter once again, so he may get a chance at a rematch. But there are some other players there for Federer to worry about. It's unlikely that Federer will be challenged until the fourth round, where he may face either Gilles Simon or Tomas Berdych. His quartefinal opponent may be Baghdatis, Verdasco, or Cilic. All of these guys are dangerous players on hard courts, and if Federer isn't quite as motivated to play at these Masters Series events as he once was, anyone could play a great match and score an upset. Or he may want to forget about what happened in Miami as quickly as possible and steamroll his way to the semis. Also possible.
Andy Murray's quarter is opposite Federer's and it doesn't look much easier. Murray could get Fish in the second round, then Feliciano Lopez in the third. After that, he may get Wawrinka or Youzhny. That's a damn tough eighth of the draw to find yourself in. And if he makes it through all that to reach the quarters, he'll likely either get a rematch with Robin Soderling, or he'll play big-hitting Fernando Gonzalez. Janko Tipsarevic, who beat Murray in Dubai, is also here, but I don't see him getting another shot at Murray. That's a tough road to the semis, only to possibly find Federer there.
I think the reason that all of the top seeds got relatively difficult draws is in part because of the depth of men's tennis, but also because a lot of really top-notch players are currently underranked, and can end up anywhere in a draw like this. Nadal opens against Taylor Dent and could get David Nalbandian in the third round, as an example of just how far some players are underranked. After that, he may get either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic - just about as different as two playing styles can get, so that's tough to get ready for, when you're thinking ahead. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be one of two players - it could JW Tsonga or big-hitting American John Isner. Isner was lucky to find himself in Tsonga's section, as the Frenchman has trouble dealing with the really big servers.
The final quarter of the draw is Djokovic's, and while I was hoping for the Djoker to find Richard Gasquet in the second round, Olivier Rochus spoiled that. I thought that he may get James Blake in the third round as well, but Blake has his hands full with Serbian teenager Filip Krajinovic. There are still plenty of tough players in his little section, though. Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro can both hit anyone off the court on the right day, and Djokovic's seeded third-round opponent, Tomaz Bellucci, is still looking for his breakthrough win. If Djokovic got the rest he needed in the past week, he should make it through, but otherwise, who knows?
Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent is seeded to be Andy Roddick, last week's losing finalist. The good news for Andy is that there's only one player in his 1/8 of the draw that should really threaten him. The bad news is that player is last week's titlist, Ivan Ljubicic. But keep in mind that Ljubicic just turned 31, so it may be tough for him to keep up such a fantastic run of form for another week and a half. Roddick will I'm sure be hoping that Tommy Robredo upsets Ljubicic in order to get another drubbing from Roddick in the round of sixteen.
In the last tournament, upsets were the order of the day. Will the top players restore order here in Miami, or will we have another surprise set of finalists?
Federer, in his loss to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, didn't give the Cypriot much credit. Baggy ended up in the Swiss's quarter once again, so he may get a chance at a rematch. But there are some other players there for Federer to worry about. It's unlikely that Federer will be challenged until the fourth round, where he may face either Gilles Simon or Tomas Berdych. His quartefinal opponent may be Baghdatis, Verdasco, or Cilic. All of these guys are dangerous players on hard courts, and if Federer isn't quite as motivated to play at these Masters Series events as he once was, anyone could play a great match and score an upset. Or he may want to forget about what happened in Miami as quickly as possible and steamroll his way to the semis. Also possible.
Andy Murray's quarter is opposite Federer's and it doesn't look much easier. Murray could get Fish in the second round, then Feliciano Lopez in the third. After that, he may get Wawrinka or Youzhny. That's a damn tough eighth of the draw to find yourself in. And if he makes it through all that to reach the quarters, he'll likely either get a rematch with Robin Soderling, or he'll play big-hitting Fernando Gonzalez. Janko Tipsarevic, who beat Murray in Dubai, is also here, but I don't see him getting another shot at Murray. That's a tough road to the semis, only to possibly find Federer there.
I think the reason that all of the top seeds got relatively difficult draws is in part because of the depth of men's tennis, but also because a lot of really top-notch players are currently underranked, and can end up anywhere in a draw like this. Nadal opens against Taylor Dent and could get David Nalbandian in the third round, as an example of just how far some players are underranked. After that, he may get either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic - just about as different as two playing styles can get, so that's tough to get ready for, when you're thinking ahead. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be one of two players - it could JW Tsonga or big-hitting American John Isner. Isner was lucky to find himself in Tsonga's section, as the Frenchman has trouble dealing with the really big servers.
The final quarter of the draw is Djokovic's, and while I was hoping for the Djoker to find Richard Gasquet in the second round, Olivier Rochus spoiled that. I thought that he may get James Blake in the third round as well, but Blake has his hands full with Serbian teenager Filip Krajinovic. There are still plenty of tough players in his little section, though. Sam Querrey and Nicolas Almagro can both hit anyone off the court on the right day, and Djokovic's seeded third-round opponent, Tomaz Bellucci, is still looking for his breakthrough win. If Djokovic got the rest he needed in the past week, he should make it through, but otherwise, who knows?
Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent is seeded to be Andy Roddick, last week's losing finalist. The good news for Andy is that there's only one player in his 1/8 of the draw that should really threaten him. The bad news is that player is last week's titlist, Ivan Ljubicic. But keep in mind that Ljubicic just turned 31, so it may be tough for him to keep up such a fantastic run of form for another week and a half. Roddick will I'm sure be hoping that Tommy Robredo upsets Ljubicic in order to get another drubbing from Roddick in the round of sixteen.
In the last tournament, upsets were the order of the day. Will the top players restore order here in Miami, or will we have another surprise set of finalists?
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Indian Wells Wrap-up
The stream of upsets that was going on all week in Indian Wells continued on finals day. Both the men's and women's finals ended in upsets, with two former top players who everybody had written-off as not having any real chance lately upsetting two players who were really supposed to get back to the top, now that their top competition was gone.
The women's final ended as Jelena Jankovic, the last big thing, beat the next big thing, Caroline Wozniacki. Jankovic hadn't won a big title in quite some time and hadn't been playing that great, so this was a surprising run for her. On the other hand, everyone expected Wozniacki to win this tournament, after the other top contenders dropped in early rounds. Well done for Jankovic, who may be ready for a return to form. The upset on the men's side was even more surprising, though.
Ivan Ljubicic, in his fourth appearance in a Master's series final, won his first title. He beat Andy Roddick, who had a cupcake draw to get to the final, while the Croatian had to beat Djokovic and Nadal to make it there. In a happy birthday to the recently-turned 31-year old, Ljubicic played great, and while he may have been just ever-so-slightly outplayed by Roddick from the ground throughout much of the match, it didn't matter when it came down to tiebreaks, and the match did. Roddick went down 0-40 in his first service game, but didn't face a break point for the rest of the match. Ljubicic faced 3 break points in the first set and 3 in the second, but it didn't matter. Nobody could convert.
During the tiebreaks, Roddick made a few more mistakes and couldn't serve as solidly as Ljubicic. While the American was leading the tour in tiebreakers won coming in to this tournament, he couldn't win either in the final, and Ljubicic went home with his maiden master's series title. Credit to the Croatian, who did something that absolutely no one gave him a chance to do at this point in his career. Literally, I don't see a single draw out of 17,000 on the ATP World Draw Challenge Circuit that picked Ljubicic to win it all.
But on the other hand, it's really a missed opportunity for Roddick, who may win another Master's Series shield in his career, but he will never get an easier chance than this one. His draw broke in every way he could have preferred, but he still couldn't seal the deal. I hope that the American closely examines the match to see if he was happy with his game. I'm not sure if he could have played differently in terms of strategy - it was just in the execution. He was out-aced by Ljubicic and basically outplayed in both tiebreaks. He may have just been tight, while the elder Croat could swing freely.
In any case, it'll be interesting to see how both do this coming week in Miami. The draw's out now, and I'll do an analysis tomorrow.
The women's final ended as Jelena Jankovic, the last big thing, beat the next big thing, Caroline Wozniacki. Jankovic hadn't won a big title in quite some time and hadn't been playing that great, so this was a surprising run for her. On the other hand, everyone expected Wozniacki to win this tournament, after the other top contenders dropped in early rounds. Well done for Jankovic, who may be ready for a return to form. The upset on the men's side was even more surprising, though.
Ivan Ljubicic, in his fourth appearance in a Master's series final, won his first title. He beat Andy Roddick, who had a cupcake draw to get to the final, while the Croatian had to beat Djokovic and Nadal to make it there. In a happy birthday to the recently-turned 31-year old, Ljubicic played great, and while he may have been just ever-so-slightly outplayed by Roddick from the ground throughout much of the match, it didn't matter when it came down to tiebreaks, and the match did. Roddick went down 0-40 in his first service game, but didn't face a break point for the rest of the match. Ljubicic faced 3 break points in the first set and 3 in the second, but it didn't matter. Nobody could convert.
During the tiebreaks, Roddick made a few more mistakes and couldn't serve as solidly as Ljubicic. While the American was leading the tour in tiebreakers won coming in to this tournament, he couldn't win either in the final, and Ljubicic went home with his maiden master's series title. Credit to the Croatian, who did something that absolutely no one gave him a chance to do at this point in his career. Literally, I don't see a single draw out of 17,000 on the ATP World Draw Challenge Circuit that picked Ljubicic to win it all.
But on the other hand, it's really a missed opportunity for Roddick, who may win another Master's Series shield in his career, but he will never get an easier chance than this one. His draw broke in every way he could have preferred, but he still couldn't seal the deal. I hope that the American closely examines the match to see if he was happy with his game. I'm not sure if he could have played differently in terms of strategy - it was just in the execution. He was out-aced by Ljubicic and basically outplayed in both tiebreaks. He may have just been tight, while the elder Croat could swing freely.
In any case, it'll be interesting to see how both do this coming week in Miami. The draw's out now, and I'll do an analysis tomorrow.
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