Indian Wells Tuesday - Stunning Upset!

As the action draws to a close today, we finish what was a day of not all that thrilling tennis, up until the last match. First, a look at the other action around the grounds. Most of the seeded players cruised today. Roddick, Soderling, Murray, and Robredo all made it through without dropping a set. Only Soderling even went to a tiebreak. Tsonga lost a set on route to victory, but it was only a momentary lapse, and Montanes did not really have his teeth in the second and third sets.

The second-last match of the night, between James Blake and Nicolas Almagro, was a tight one, but was marred by some admittedly questionable calls at key moments, and subsequently more frustration than is necessary from Blake. He was playing well, but Almagro was serving bombs and smacking winners off both sides. Usually, Almagro can't keep that up for an entire match, but he was on tonight. It's no shame that James lost, and hopefully he'll be encouraged by the strength of his player this week.

The following match had all of the intensity and none of the controversy, as well as a much more marquee match-up. Twenty-seventh seed Marcos Baghdatis was facing Roger Federer in a rematch of the pair's Australian Open final from 2007. They had faced each other five other times, and Baghdatis was 2-15 in sets against the mighty Fed. When Federer won the first set 7-5 tonight, it looked like it would be more of the same. But Baghdatis fought back. Even though he was down by several match points, he brought the match to a third-set tiebreak and won with a single minibreak, 7-4. It's really a famous victory for the Cypriot, who is playing like he was when he made the top ten. There's no reason he can't find his way back there, if he can keep up this level of play.

As Cara Black and Liezel Huber also lost today, that means that the only top seeds left in the tournament are Nestor and Zimonjic in the men's doubles. This really is an odd tournament, in terms of favorites dropping like flies. Today, the women's side was relatively quiet, with the only upset between Maria Martinez-Sanchez and Yanina Wickmayer, which isn't a huge upset by any means. And Suarez-Navarro and Kleybanova are still on-court, so who knows what will happen there. So far, there have been six breaks in seven games, so Suarez-Navarro is up a hold.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the two halves of the tournament come together. Baghdatis is really at a disadvantage, having had to play so late and then come back tomorrow. Fortunately, he'll be last on Court 2 to play Tommy Robredo, but just based on health, it's going to be a tough ask for the Cypriot to follow up that win.

Also on court 2, Guillermo-Garcia Lopez plays Juan Monaco, which is not quite the match-up that you'd expect this deep into a hardcourt Masters series event. Good for both of these guys for making it this far, though. Unfortunately, they don't have much interest here in the states, so they're up first. Look for that match to be poorly-attended. Next up, Ivan Ljubicic faces Novak Djokovic, and if Djokovic decides to leave the court for a set again this match, expect the veteran Ljubicic to take advantage, unlike Kohlschreiber in the last round. There might be another upset here, depending on whether or not Djokovic shows up. Finally on court 2, Viktor Troicki will play his second game of the tournament against Tomaz Berdych. I'll admit that I don't give Troicki much of a shot here, particularly with how well Berdych played against Verdasco.

On center court, there are some real crackerjack matches. John Isner is playing Rafael Nadal, and though Nadal's knees have not seemed to be troubling him thus far this tournament, the big-hitting giant will give them their sternest test yet. After that, Tsonga and Soderling are playing in the earliest meeting of top ten players in this tournament. Both are playing great, but Soderling has a 2-0 advantage. Tsonga sometimes doesn't handle playing against big servers that well, which is strange since he's one of the best servers on tour. Soderling may have the advantage, but this should be close.

In the night session, both Andys are in action, but not against each other. Andy Roddick faces Austrian Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, who got a walkover from Simon Gruel. Roddick's last opponent had gotten a retirement as well, and it didn't seem to do him much good. But Melzer is a tougher opponent, even though Roddick is 9-0 against him. As Bagdhatis showed today, a dominating head-to-head does not mean a dominating victory. The last match of the day features Andy Murray against Nicolas Almagro. Now Almagro is exactly the type of heavy-hitter who can trouble Murray, and if the Spaniard plays (and particularly serves) as well as he did against Blake, then Murray could be in trouble. But Murray can have a way of blunting those players' power, and getting them off their game enough to start missing. Look for him to do that tomorrow.

One final little NB - Isner and Querrey are playing Karlovic and Vemic in doubles tomorrow. The two biggest players on the tour on opposite sides of the net again.

Really, the latter stages of the tournament begins tomorrow in earnest. I'm anxious to see if the trend of upsets continues.

Indian Wells Monday Wrap-up

Even though Monday's action in Indian Wells isn't quite finished yet (Querrey and Isner still have to play), I'm going to go ahead and write my wrap-up. This is the disadvantage of tennis actually taking place in your time zone, but it is the only one.

There was some great action today, with some minor upsets, some gutsy performances, a couple real dominations, and even a few chokes. The worst choke of the day belongs to German Phillip Kohlschreiber, who failed to capitalize on the fact that Djokovic simply did not show up for the second set of the match. After being up a set and a break, Djokovic went walkabout and lost eight games in a row. The Serb evened it up, but then got down 0-40 on serve while down 4-5. Kohlschreiber failed to take advantage of any, and then lost the match in a third-set tiebreak. A real escape for the Djoker, who has only decided to show up about 60% of the time for his last two matches.

Rafael Nadal, on the other hand, looked imperious in his match against Mario Ancic. Nothing that Super Mario could do in that one.

Strangely, there wasn't much that Fernando Verdasco could do today, either. In what was not necessarily a surprising result, Tomas Berdych just decimated the Spaniard love and three. They had some tough matches in the past, so the manner of Berdych's victory was a bit of a shock. It sounds like Hot Sauce may have been having some trouble with a new racket, but it wasn't just his racket that was bothering him today, it was his big-hitting Czech opponent.

The other two upsets of the day were Juan Monaco over Juan Carlos Ferrero, in a tight three-setter, and then Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over Tomaz Bellucci, who won the first and then kind of lost his focus in the last two sets, having a lot more trouble hitting his big forehands and unable to keep his first-serve percentage over fifty. In fact, it was 39% in the second set!

There were a handful of upsets on the women's side, as well. Carla Suarez-Navarro followed up her win over Kuznetsova by beat Aggie Szavay. Azarenka also lost, rather meekly in fact, to Maria Martinez-Sanchez, so it was a good day for hyphenated Spaniards. Shahar Peer beat Flavia Pennetta in three as well, but the upset of the day was Alisa Kleybanova over Kim Clijsters in the third set tiebreak. Clijsters really should have come away with this match, she just made a few too many errors at key moments. Kleybanova is looking fitter than ever and is on quite a hot streak right now.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the marquee match is definitely Roger Federer versus Marcos Baghdatis, which could be a thriller. Also, keep an eye out for Petrova-Wozniacki and Radwanska-Bartoli. On paper, the women's matches are better than the men's tomorrow, but as usual, anything could happen.

I hope that the court that has Dudi Sela and Tommy Robredo has cameras, because that could be a fun match, even if it lacks star power. Lopez-Soderling should feature a ton of aces, and Thiemo De Bakker gets another shot at Andy Roddick, after falling to him this year at the Aussie Open.

Well, I'm going to head to bed and see if I can watch Querrey and Isner through to the finish line.

Indian Wells Weekend Wrap-up

We're into the third round at Indian Wells, and things are mostly going as expected. By that, I mean that there have been about as many surprising upsets as one usually finds in a tournament of this size. Three of the favorites on the women's side are already out - Justine Henin fell to Gisela Dulko, top seed Svetlana Kuznetsova fell to Carla Suarez Navarro, and Maria Sharapova lost to Jie Zheng. At this point, it's likely that the semifinals could be Clijsters-Azarenka and Dementieva-Wozinacki.

In Men's doubles, the Bryan Brothers have lost as well, losing to Berdych and Kohlschreiber in straights. They were the second seed, and the third and fourth seeds have also dropped; Paes and Dlouhy lost to Marc Lopez and Rafael Nadal, while Bhupathi and Mirnyi lost to Andreev and Korolev. Top seeds Nestor and Zimonjic have survived their only match thus far, and they'll be facing Andy Roddick and James Blake in the second round. If the trend of top singles players beating experienced doubles teams continues, the top seeds are in danger.

There's been nothing resembling that level of upset on the men's side, but there have been a handful of surprises. The highest-seeded casualty is Nikolay Davydenko, who was forced to withdraw with his wrist injury after he beat Ernests Gulbis. As a result, Viktor Troicki is into the round of sixteen after playing only a single game. He had a bye in the first round, Pablo Cuevas retired six points into the match, and now he gets a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko. Oddly enough, this matches Troicki's best ever effort at a Masters 1000 event. I don't give him much of a chance agsinst the winner of Berdych-Verdasco, though.

David Ferrer was also upset, but he was playing James Blake, so it wasn't as big an upset as it may have seemed. Blake was at his imperious best, and if he can keep up that level of play (no easy task) then he could make a deep run into this tournament. He'll face Nicolas Almagro next, who upset Ivo Karlovic in the second round. In fact, let me just do a quick rundown of other seeds to falter.

Marin Cilic was the first big upset of the tourney on the men's side, losing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in his first match. He must have just been tired, as he did lead the tour in match wins on the year. Gilles Simon lost to Brian Dabul, but Simon hasn't been heard from too much as of late, so it's not the biggest shock in the world. Julien Benneteau lost to Mario Ancic, but Ancic is on the comeback trail as well, and he's a former top ten player.

In the top half of the draw, Monfils and Stepanek both lost, to Simon Gruel and Dudi Sela. Igor Andreev fell to American Michael Russell, and Janko Tipsarevic had to retire against Thiemo De Bakker. It's also worth noting that David Nalbandian lost to Jurgen Melzer, so it doesn't look like he was completely inspired by his performance at Davis Cup.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most exciting matches mostly feature the top seeds. Nadal plays Mario Ancic, as I mentioned. Ancic has not been at his best for years, but Nadal hasn't been at his best for the better part of a year, either. A win from Ancic would really announce his intentions to return to the top tier of the game. However, even when Nadal is not at his best, he can handle most players. If Ancic even makes this competitive, it will be an encouraging result.

Djokovic plays Philipp Kohlschreiber, against whom he has a 1-1 record, but Djokovic's one win was on this very court two years ago, and it was decisive, 3 and 2. It's tough to see that result changing too much tomorrow, but Djokovic went walkabout in the second set of his win against Mardy Fish, losing that set 6-0.

John Isner and Sam Querrey are playing in tomorrow's night match, in what is shaping up to be the next big American rivalry. It's not quite Agassi-Sampras - who apparently still aren't too fond of each other - but I think it will be fun to watch. Querrey is just a bit better moving around the court, and I give him the advantage in this match.

I'm also really looking forward to Verdasco-Berdych, who have a 3-4 head to head. This one's a real pick-em, and the winner should have relatively little trouble in the next round, giving them an almost guaranteed path to the quarterfinals, where they could meet a potentially ailing Nadal. Lots riding on this match.

Indian Wells Preview

Well, the qualifiers are over, and my predictions about the qualifiers were not quite the best. It just goes to show that anything can happen, and that anyone who pretends to be knowledgeable about these sorts of things really won't do that much (if any better) than chance, most of the time. That said, let's take a look at the main draw and see how far off I can be this time.

This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.

It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.

Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.

The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.

Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.

Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.

In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.

Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.

Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!

Indian Wells Quallies

Indian Wells is a strange tournament. The main draw is 96 players, which is more than any other tour event, except for the grand slams. One of the consequences of this unusual draw size is that the qualifying tournament is also pretty strange. There are 12 qualifying spots, 48 players in contention, and 24 of them are seeded. The top seed is Uzbek player Denis Istomin, while the 24th seed is American Jesse Witten. Here are my thoughts on the draw.

Istomin will have to beat two Americans to get into the main draw, and I think he'll be able to. Unless either Bobby Reynolds or Michael Yani have huge fanbases in California who are willing to help their main through a tough match in the quallies, I see the Uzbek through.

The second seed, Illya Marchenko of Ukraine, has a tougher road. He could face Donald Young in the deciding match for entry into the main draw. The "Donald" has had a pretty good year so far, and this is one of his last chances to make a splash - particularly on home soil - for a while. If he doesn't make noise here or in Miami, you can probably say goodbye to him until July.

Dustin Brown of Jamaica might face Gaston Gaudio for a spot in the tournament, which I would give to Brown on this surface. Gaudio's comeback has not been anything to write home about, thus far. But then again, I could just be hopeful, because I still want to watch Dustin Brown play a whole match.

Carsten Ball is making it through qualifying, no doubt. Somdev Devvarman has a chance, but he has a tougher road, which runs through veteran Stefan Koubek. Another veteran in the draw, Rainer Schuettler, should probably make it through.

One of the matches that I think could be interesting is the likely second round between Jesse Witten and Yen-Hsun Lu. We haven't heard much from Jesse since his close loss to Djokovic at the U.S. Open last year. Ryan Anderson is another player who hasn't done much lately, but these are his favorite courts and conditions.

There are some interesting players here, but I think that qualifying presents such a strange environment which is so different than the main draw of the tournament that almost any result can happen and not be a huge upset. We'll then have to see where these players land in the main draw, which I'll take a look at tomorrow.

Davis Cup First Round Complete

The first round of the Davis Cup for 2010 is (nearly) complete, and things went largely as expected. The favorites breezed through and most of the tight ties were tight. The only home teams to lose were Belgium, facing last year's finalists the Czech Republic, and Sweden, who fell to an Argentina that was energized almost exclusively by David Nalbandian. While his return had not been very impressive thus far, this bodes well for the next phase of his career. The Americans put up a really tough fight against the Serbians, but in the end, the red clay and the away team status kept them from making it to the next round.

Chile has not yet wrapped up its tie with Israel, but I think that Gonzalez or Massu should be able to pick up the final point tomorrow.

Now, we head back to the United States for the double Masters Series hardcourt tour. This is a ten-day tournament, so it has a weird schedule and starts on (I think) Thursday, this week. I'll take a look at the draw as soon as I see.

A few random notes - Cyprus and Bulgaria both won their ties, entirely on the play of Marcos Baghdatis and Grigor Dimitrov. Australia kicked butt, even sans Lleyton Hewitt.

Also, Mario Ancic made it to the final of a Futures tournament in Texas this week, then lost to 372nd rank Artem Sitak. Maybe it's a bit too early to call it a comeback?

Davis Cup First Round, Day 2

The first week of the Davis Cup is about to wrap up. Three of the eight matchups have already drawn to a close, and at least four of the remaining five will finish tomorrow, and I expect that the fifth one will as well.

The ones that are already done, and none of them are surprises, are Croatia over Ecuador, the Czech Republic over Belgium, and France over Germany. What may be a bit of a surprise is that neither Russia nor Serbia closed out their ties. Both the Indians and Americans fielded strong doubles teams - well, at least the Americans tried to.

Mike Bryan came down with food poisoning, which meant that the Americans' best hope of getting the doubles point was in jeopardy. Amazingly, big John Isner stepped up and replaced the ailing Bryan, and served superbly in the Americans' defeat of Zimonjic and Tipsarevic. Kudos to Isner, but he'll need to build on that confidence to have a chance in the match against Novak Djokovic, tomorrow. If he somehow manages to win, I do give the Americans of making an impossible comeback, because Querrey has a real chance against Troicki. But it's a huge ask for Isner.

India managed their doubles point against Russia, but that was really their only chance. Russia's taking this one. I expect that the coach may replace Kunitsyn with Andreev for the second singles match just to be safer, but it probably won't matter.

Switzerland has about as much chance to win both singles points tomorrow as the United States does, but it's still a chance. Don't look for a first-round upset of the defending champs this year.

Argentina-Sweden is the most interesting match-up for tomorrow. Argentina is actually up 2-1, when Nalbandian joined in for the doubles and won the point with relative ease. I'm curious to see if he'll get put in the tie for one of the reverse singles. It seems like a sure thing, but I'm not 100% on his health. This one is a toss-up.

Chile is a day behind the other matches, but it's almost certain that the tie will end tomorrow as well. Massu and Gonzalez both won in four sets. They'll team up for the doubles point tomorrow, and almost certainly will win. They're a gold-medal winning team, as you may recall.

There's still a lot of tennis to play, though, so we'll just see what happens tomorrow.