We're down to the last eight in Rome. The action today was, for the most part, not too terribly exciting. Only one match went three sets, and it wasn't because of the thrilling tennis. Ernests Gulbis was trying almost as hard as he did on Monday to choke away a match that he was playing well enough to win, and his opponent Filippo Volandri nearly let him, but he wasn't sufficiently solid to take the third set either. Gulbis advances to the quarterfinal and faces the winnner (if you can call him that) of the only match to go fewer than two sets.
That's right. Ivan Ljubicic apparently injured his rib during the warm-up in his match against Feliciano Lopez, and was forced to withdraw. Great result for Lopez, who really had no business making it to this stage. And how thrilled is he to see Ernests Gulbis, who almost gave away both of his previous matches, rather than Roger Federer? If Ernie plays the way he can, he should win, but if he gets overwhelmed by the situation, then it will be tough for him.
They'll be playing for the honor of facing the winner of Rafael Nadal vs. Stanislas Wawrinka, which is to say - they'll be playing to face Nadal. Credit to Wawrinka, who upset Robin Soderling, but the Swede was playing jaded after all the tennis he's played lately. And in that condition, who can get too excited about probably getting a revenge beatdown from Nadal? Soderling definitely didn't tank, but I doubt that his heart was entirely in it today. And who could blame him? Best of luck to Stan, who staged the best win of his career here a couple years ago when he beat Roger Federer, but I don't give him too much chance against Nadal. He would have to play perfect and then get a Nadal who's somewhat off his game. In his match today, Hanescu was the best I've ever seen him play for stretches, but Nadal still dispatched him with ease. Good luck, Stan.
While there's only a single seed left in the top half of the draw, and he could probably beat the other three players if they were all working together, the bottom half of the draw is still loaded with top players. The first quarterfinal is JW Tsonga against David Ferrer, who have never faced each other on tour before. One's a big hitter, the other's a big returner. I give Ferrer the edge on this surface, but it could go either way.
The other quarterfinal is even tighter. Novak Djokovic, still the number two player in the world, squares off against a guy who is putting together a spectacular run this season so far, Fernando Verdasco. "Hot Sauce" made the final in Monte Carlo and won Barcelona, so he's playing well. Djoko, on the other hand, hasn't been showing his best stuff with any consistency since his win in the Davis Cup against the US. He's been great for a match or two, but then he falls apart again. The Serb hasn't beaten a player ranked inside the top 15 all year. The thing is, though, that he hasn't had the chance to play that many, either. He could start to get his year back on track with a win here against Verdasco. Should be a fun one, though.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Rome Third Round
We're on to the round of 16 in Rome, with the major players making it through without too much difficulty. There were a few upsets today, though nothing compared to yesterday's defeat of Roger Federer by Ernests Gulbis. Really, nothing could have, except for possibly Nadal losing to Kohlschreiber. Nadal breezed through against the German, dropping four games and a mere nine points total through eight service games. Not much to report, there.
The best match of the day - or at least the tightest - may have been between Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka. The Swiss #2 managed to eke a tough win in a third set tiebreak, 8-6. But Wawrinka is a former top ten player and an accomplished clay courter, so this was always going to be tight. It isn't Berdych's best surface, either. The other two seeds who fell today were also tall guys - Marin Cilic looked to be cruising against Feliciano Lopez, only to lose the second set in a tiebreak and the third 6-4. Really, Cilic had not business losing that match, as Lopez may be the Spaniard with the least game on clay. On the other hand, John Isner was almost expected to lose against Brazilian Tomaz Bellucci, and that may have hurt me in the pressure moments of his 7-6, 7-5 loss. While he wasn't seeded, Lleyton Hewitt certainly hoped to put up a better performance than a 2 and 3 loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez after he had worked so hard to upset Mikhail Youzhny in the first round.
Despite the loss of a few of the top players, things are looking very interesting from here on out. Federer's departure is the most surprising, and his section of the draw is now pretty much bare. As Cilic and Querrey have already lost, the lone seed left in that quarter is Ivan Ljubicic. He should beat Feliciano Lopez tomorrow on the second court, while Ernest Gulbis plays on center. He was on the main stage on Monday because he was facing the number one player in the world, but he'll be there tomorrow because he's up against the last Italian player in the draw, Filippo Vilandri. Gulbis really ought to win that match, but it wouldn't be impossible for him to be hungover after the biggest win of his career.
Nadal faces Victor Hanescu in tomorrow's night match, and that should be an easy match for the Spaniard. He'll have to be ready for the quartefinals, though, because he'll face either Robin Soderling, who bested him last year at the French, or Stanislas Wawrinka. That's one of tomorrow's best matches, and definitely the best one taking place on the second court. They have a 1-1 head to head, and I think this match is almost a pick-em.
Verdasco and Tsonga are each up tomorrow against a couple of untested clay court specialists, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Santiago Giraldo. I expect both of them to come through. Their potential quarterfinal opponents, though, have tougher tasks ahead of them.
Andy Murray, who would face Tsonga if both win, has to be excited about getting his first win here in Rome. His losses in the last four tournaments he's played have been so discouraging that he'll take any momentum he could get. However, I'll wager he wishes he could have another match under his belt before he had to take on David Ferrer, who is his opponent tomorrow. On a normal day and on any other surface, I'd give Murray the edge. But considering how poorly he's been playing and how comfortable Ferrer is on clay, this is a tough ask for the Scotsman tomorrow. Novak Djokovic, in the bottom section of the draw, faces Tomaz Bellucci, who doesn't have the proven results of Ferrer, but is still a solid young clay court player. I think that Bellucci has about as much chance of staging an upset as Gulbis did against Federer. He'll need a little help, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Looking ahead, I think that Gulbis should be disappointed if he doesn't make the semis, here. He's won the toughest match he could have expected, and he won't face any comparable resistance until that stage. Even if he faces Ljubicic in the quarters, he should be able to take that match. He'll likely find Nadal there, who must be hoping for Soderling to beat Wawrinka so he get some revenge. The other half of the draw is much more interesting, with a lot more riding on the matches that Murray and Djokovic play tomorrow. But I wouldn't be too surprised to see any of six of the remaining eight players make their way to the final. Sorry Giraldo and Garcia-Lopez.
The best match of the day - or at least the tightest - may have been between Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka. The Swiss #2 managed to eke a tough win in a third set tiebreak, 8-6. But Wawrinka is a former top ten player and an accomplished clay courter, so this was always going to be tight. It isn't Berdych's best surface, either. The other two seeds who fell today were also tall guys - Marin Cilic looked to be cruising against Feliciano Lopez, only to lose the second set in a tiebreak and the third 6-4. Really, Cilic had not business losing that match, as Lopez may be the Spaniard with the least game on clay. On the other hand, John Isner was almost expected to lose against Brazilian Tomaz Bellucci, and that may have hurt me in the pressure moments of his 7-6, 7-5 loss. While he wasn't seeded, Lleyton Hewitt certainly hoped to put up a better performance than a 2 and 3 loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez after he had worked so hard to upset Mikhail Youzhny in the first round.
Despite the loss of a few of the top players, things are looking very interesting from here on out. Federer's departure is the most surprising, and his section of the draw is now pretty much bare. As Cilic and Querrey have already lost, the lone seed left in that quarter is Ivan Ljubicic. He should beat Feliciano Lopez tomorrow on the second court, while Ernest Gulbis plays on center. He was on the main stage on Monday because he was facing the number one player in the world, but he'll be there tomorrow because he's up against the last Italian player in the draw, Filippo Vilandri. Gulbis really ought to win that match, but it wouldn't be impossible for him to be hungover after the biggest win of his career.
Nadal faces Victor Hanescu in tomorrow's night match, and that should be an easy match for the Spaniard. He'll have to be ready for the quartefinals, though, because he'll face either Robin Soderling, who bested him last year at the French, or Stanislas Wawrinka. That's one of tomorrow's best matches, and definitely the best one taking place on the second court. They have a 1-1 head to head, and I think this match is almost a pick-em.
Verdasco and Tsonga are each up tomorrow against a couple of untested clay court specialists, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Santiago Giraldo. I expect both of them to come through. Their potential quarterfinal opponents, though, have tougher tasks ahead of them.
Andy Murray, who would face Tsonga if both win, has to be excited about getting his first win here in Rome. His losses in the last four tournaments he's played have been so discouraging that he'll take any momentum he could get. However, I'll wager he wishes he could have another match under his belt before he had to take on David Ferrer, who is his opponent tomorrow. On a normal day and on any other surface, I'd give Murray the edge. But considering how poorly he's been playing and how comfortable Ferrer is on clay, this is a tough ask for the Scotsman tomorrow. Novak Djokovic, in the bottom section of the draw, faces Tomaz Bellucci, who doesn't have the proven results of Ferrer, but is still a solid young clay court player. I think that Bellucci has about as much chance of staging an upset as Gulbis did against Federer. He'll need a little help, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Looking ahead, I think that Gulbis should be disappointed if he doesn't make the semis, here. He's won the toughest match he could have expected, and he won't face any comparable resistance until that stage. Even if he faces Ljubicic in the quarters, he should be able to take that match. He'll likely find Nadal there, who must be hoping for Soderling to beat Wawrinka so he get some revenge. The other half of the draw is much more interesting, with a lot more riding on the matches that Murray and Djokovic play tomorrow. But I wouldn't be too surprised to see any of six of the remaining eight players make their way to the final. Sorry Giraldo and Garcia-Lopez.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Rome Second Round
Tomorrow, we'll wrap up the second round of the Rome Masters. We've had a handful of upsets already, so the landscape of the tournament may look a little bit different than what people had expected.
Juan Carlos Ferrero was the first surprise casualty, as he was duffed up by Colombian qualifier Santiago Giraldo. The Spaniard might have been tired from all the tennis he was playing, but I didn't see the match, so I can't really explain how he looked in his loss. Here's hoping he recovers in time for the French. He made the final there twice, winning in 2003. He had the semifinals the two years before that. However, since then, he hasn't made it past the third round. Maybe because he played too much during the rest of the clay season?
The other seed to fall on Monday was American Sam Querrey, but his loss wasn't really an upset. Really, the upset was when his compatriot John Isner beat Horacio Zeballos, who is a good player on clay. Querrey served for the match in the third set against Frenchman Julien Benneteau, but he ended up being broken and losing in a tie-break. He redeemed himself a bit as he and Isner squeaked out a win against Tsonga and Wawrinka in doubles, but he can play better on clay, and he'll need to if he wants to break into the top 20.
Today, there were a few more upsets. Mikhail Youzhny fell apart at the end of his match against Lleyton Hewitt, giving the Australian number one his second victory over a player in the top 100 this year. A good win for Hewitt. Juan Monaco also fell to Victor Hanescu, which is a bit of a surprise, but both of those players are good clay courters, so anyone could have come out on top.
The last upset of the day was also the most shocking. Ernests Gulbis upset world number one Roger Federer, 7-5 in the fifth set, after Federer won the first 6-2. It wasn't like Gulbis came out playing poorly. Fed was just playing vintage tennis for the first eight games. But after that, he went off the boil, and Ernests won the second 6-1. He had 7 match points in the third, and on the first six, he made unforced errors. Two of them were double faults. On the seventh, mercifully, Federer sunk a bankhand return into the net.
First of all, this is a huge win for Gulbis. While Federer played poorly today, lots of players can't beat Federer even when he's playing that bad. Gulbis nearly came up short. The nerves got to him at the end of the match. He was surprisingly candid in his post-match interviews, in that he was basically "shitting his pants." That's as far as a lot of players get, but Gulbis is so talented, he managed to collapse over the finish line. Personally, I'm hoping that it's a mark of things to come. There's no reason that Gulbis shouldn't be top twenty, maybe even top ten, with as much talent as he has. He's had trouble following up big wins before, but he's got a day to rest before he faces either Volandri or Benneteau, either of whom should be more easily dispatched than Federer, even at his forehand-shanking worst.
As for Federer, some people are sounding the alarm bells after three consecutive tournaments with surprising losses: Baghdatis, Berdych, and now Gulbis, the least accomplished of the three. I would be worried, if not for the fact that Federer managed to find the level of play he needed at the Australian Open. He's 6-4 in matches outside of grand slams, and 7-0 in them. I've been wondering whether Federer can still manage to care about all of the little tournaments. He's won so many of them, it was tough for me to see how he could keep playing his best, week after week. And so far this year, it seems like he can't. We'll see what happens in the next couple of weeks - I expect Federer can win Estoril again, but the big test will be whether he can play like AO-Federer at the French Open again.
The rest of the action that took place today was relatively boring and doesn't merit a lot of mention. Djokovic cruised, Murray finally got a win, Ferrer won, as did Almagro and Bellucci, who will face Isner in the next round. Since most of the top players played today, the remainder of the action tomorrow gives us less opportunity for fireworks, in all likelihood.
Soderling, Nadal, and Verdasco are all in action. It will be interesting to see how all three of them do, since they all have to be in the conversation at the French Open. Marin Cilic, JW Tsonga, and Tomas Berdych also all play their first matches tomorrow, as well. Berdych faces Wawrinka, which could be a cracker of a match. The other potentially exciting matches include Ljubicic against Almagro and Belluci against Isner, the last American in the singles draw. We'll see if he can keep the flag flying for one more round.
Juan Carlos Ferrero was the first surprise casualty, as he was duffed up by Colombian qualifier Santiago Giraldo. The Spaniard might have been tired from all the tennis he was playing, but I didn't see the match, so I can't really explain how he looked in his loss. Here's hoping he recovers in time for the French. He made the final there twice, winning in 2003. He had the semifinals the two years before that. However, since then, he hasn't made it past the third round. Maybe because he played too much during the rest of the clay season?
The other seed to fall on Monday was American Sam Querrey, but his loss wasn't really an upset. Really, the upset was when his compatriot John Isner beat Horacio Zeballos, who is a good player on clay. Querrey served for the match in the third set against Frenchman Julien Benneteau, but he ended up being broken and losing in a tie-break. He redeemed himself a bit as he and Isner squeaked out a win against Tsonga and Wawrinka in doubles, but he can play better on clay, and he'll need to if he wants to break into the top 20.
Today, there were a few more upsets. Mikhail Youzhny fell apart at the end of his match against Lleyton Hewitt, giving the Australian number one his second victory over a player in the top 100 this year. A good win for Hewitt. Juan Monaco also fell to Victor Hanescu, which is a bit of a surprise, but both of those players are good clay courters, so anyone could have come out on top.
The last upset of the day was also the most shocking. Ernests Gulbis upset world number one Roger Federer, 7-5 in the fifth set, after Federer won the first 6-2. It wasn't like Gulbis came out playing poorly. Fed was just playing vintage tennis for the first eight games. But after that, he went off the boil, and Ernests won the second 6-1. He had 7 match points in the third, and on the first six, he made unforced errors. Two of them were double faults. On the seventh, mercifully, Federer sunk a bankhand return into the net.
First of all, this is a huge win for Gulbis. While Federer played poorly today, lots of players can't beat Federer even when he's playing that bad. Gulbis nearly came up short. The nerves got to him at the end of the match. He was surprisingly candid in his post-match interviews, in that he was basically "shitting his pants." That's as far as a lot of players get, but Gulbis is so talented, he managed to collapse over the finish line. Personally, I'm hoping that it's a mark of things to come. There's no reason that Gulbis shouldn't be top twenty, maybe even top ten, with as much talent as he has. He's had trouble following up big wins before, but he's got a day to rest before he faces either Volandri or Benneteau, either of whom should be more easily dispatched than Federer, even at his forehand-shanking worst.
As for Federer, some people are sounding the alarm bells after three consecutive tournaments with surprising losses: Baghdatis, Berdych, and now Gulbis, the least accomplished of the three. I would be worried, if not for the fact that Federer managed to find the level of play he needed at the Australian Open. He's 6-4 in matches outside of grand slams, and 7-0 in them. I've been wondering whether Federer can still manage to care about all of the little tournaments. He's won so many of them, it was tough for me to see how he could keep playing his best, week after week. And so far this year, it seems like he can't. We'll see what happens in the next couple of weeks - I expect Federer can win Estoril again, but the big test will be whether he can play like AO-Federer at the French Open again.
The rest of the action that took place today was relatively boring and doesn't merit a lot of mention. Djokovic cruised, Murray finally got a win, Ferrer won, as did Almagro and Bellucci, who will face Isner in the next round. Since most of the top players played today, the remainder of the action tomorrow gives us less opportunity for fireworks, in all likelihood.
Soderling, Nadal, and Verdasco are all in action. It will be interesting to see how all three of them do, since they all have to be in the conversation at the French Open. Marin Cilic, JW Tsonga, and Tomas Berdych also all play their first matches tomorrow, as well. Berdych faces Wawrinka, which could be a cracker of a match. The other potentially exciting matches include Ljubicic against Almagro and Belluci against Isner, the last American in the singles draw. We'll see if he can keep the flag flying for one more round.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Barcelona Wrap-up and Rome Preview
The Barcelona final has completed, and despite Nadal's withdrawal at the beginning of the week, a Spaniard still managed to win the title. Fernando Verdasco played solid clay-court tennis to upset last year's French Open finalist Robin Soderling. Soderling just couldn't quite find his range on his groundstrokes for an extended period of time, and Verdasco's movement was sufficiently better than the Swede's that he didn't have many other options. Kudos to Verdasco, who has been quietly putting together an excellent year. And to Soderling, who has made his third career clay-court final, and even though he couldn't seal the deal, he showed that he is still a force to be reckoned with on any surface.
It's always tough to make it to the final only to lose when you have to play the next week, because while Verdasco can build on the momentum he may have gotten from his second title of the year, Soderling played just as much tennis and didn't come away with a title. Both of them are in the draw at Rome, as well as most of the other top players, with a few notable exceptions.
Del Potro, Davydenko, Gonzalez, Robredo, Monfils, Stepanek, and Haas are all out with injury. That's a lot of players in the top 21 who can't play. Andy Roddick is also skipping the tournament, but not because of injury, just because he's decided he doesn't have any chance of playing on clay and doesn't want to bother. He can skip out on the fine he would normally receive because of his veteran status on the tour, but he can't get any more ranking points, and he is still going to get a big fat zero for this tournament, since it's going to count as one of the eight required Masters Series events, whether he plays it or not. And since he just dropped to number eight in the world after Soderling came in second at Barcelona, it is not unreasonable to consider the possibility of a top ten with no Americans as the hard court swing begins after Wimbledon.
In any case, we'll see what happens on that front as the year progresses. This week in Rome, the top players who are not hobbled are all there. Roger Federer is, of course, the top seed. He's still on a quest for his second tournament victory of the year, after his Australian Open title earlier in the year. He'll open up against the winner of one of the most enticing first-round match-ups, between a pair of hot-and-cold players: Baghdatis and Gulbis. Baghdatis beat Federer earlier in the year, so it would be interesting to see a rematch. After that, he may get Sam Querrey, if the American survives to the third round. In the quartefinals, Federer is likely to face either Cilic, Ljubicic, or Nicolas Almagro. I don't see any of these players upsetting the Fed, but I would have said that about everyone who's beaten him since January this year. So we'll just see what kind of form he brings to his first clay-court tournament of the year.
Nadal is the third seed here, and he ended up in Federer's half of the draw. That means it's possible that we'll have the first Nadal-Federer matchup outside of a final in a regular tournament (end of year tourney doesn't count) since Roland Garros in 2005. To do that, Rafael Nadal will have a handful of challenging players to make his way through. Kohlschreiber, Monaco, and Soderling are the likeliest candidates. But if he plays the way he played in Monte Carlo, none of these players poses a real threat. The other potential opponents he might find - Berdych, Wawrinka, Andreev, Hanescu, Melzer - are all fine players, but none of them have the pedigree that they need to seriously challenge the king of clay. I really hope to see a Nadal-Soderling quarterfinal, because I bet that Nadal will want to get some revenge for his loss at the French Open last year. If Nadal is healthy and fit, he's through to the semifinals. It's as simple as that.
Since the semifinal on that half of the draw is looking like it could be Federer-Nadal, the other half of the draw seems like it could be a competition for the chance to lose in the final. Murray is the fourth seed here in Rome, despite dropping down to five in the rankings this week behind Juan Martin Del Potro, who hasn't even been playing. He's also on a three-match losing streak, which is almost unbelievable for a top five player. I would be shocked if that trend continued here, because Murray opens against Andreas Seppi, and has a three-match win streak against the Italian. Once he gets a win under his belt, he might be able to put together his first good tournament since his run to the Aussie Open final. His quarter is not the strongest, with two exceptions - Ferrer and Ferrero are there, and Murray might find one in the third round and the other in the quarters. He could also see Tsonga there, who might open against Thiemo De Bakker, who beat him last week in Barcelona. Other than that, there aren't a lot of likely contenders in Murray's section, which is hopeful for him.
The final quarter of the draw features second seed Novak Djokovic seeded to meet Barcelona champion Fernando Verdasco in the quarters, assuming the Spaniard isn't burnt out after reaching a final and winning a tournament in consecutive weeks. There's an interesting match-up here between Mikhail Youzhny and Lleyton Hewitt, who has yet to get his year going, thus far. John Isner is also in this section, the top American (of two) in the draw, and he plays Horacio Zeballos in the first round. He may get Bellucci in the second round and Djokovic in the third - it's a tough ask for the big American, but at least he's not getting Federer. Still, it's a longshot to think that a US player can make a deep run here.
The clay court season has been relatively straightforward, with two Spaniards, an Argentine, and a Swiss player winning the four tournaments that have taken place so far. I think it's likely that a Spaniard or Swiss player will win this tournament, too.
It's always tough to make it to the final only to lose when you have to play the next week, because while Verdasco can build on the momentum he may have gotten from his second title of the year, Soderling played just as much tennis and didn't come away with a title. Both of them are in the draw at Rome, as well as most of the other top players, with a few notable exceptions.
Del Potro, Davydenko, Gonzalez, Robredo, Monfils, Stepanek, and Haas are all out with injury. That's a lot of players in the top 21 who can't play. Andy Roddick is also skipping the tournament, but not because of injury, just because he's decided he doesn't have any chance of playing on clay and doesn't want to bother. He can skip out on the fine he would normally receive because of his veteran status on the tour, but he can't get any more ranking points, and he is still going to get a big fat zero for this tournament, since it's going to count as one of the eight required Masters Series events, whether he plays it or not. And since he just dropped to number eight in the world after Soderling came in second at Barcelona, it is not unreasonable to consider the possibility of a top ten with no Americans as the hard court swing begins after Wimbledon.
In any case, we'll see what happens on that front as the year progresses. This week in Rome, the top players who are not hobbled are all there. Roger Federer is, of course, the top seed. He's still on a quest for his second tournament victory of the year, after his Australian Open title earlier in the year. He'll open up against the winner of one of the most enticing first-round match-ups, between a pair of hot-and-cold players: Baghdatis and Gulbis. Baghdatis beat Federer earlier in the year, so it would be interesting to see a rematch. After that, he may get Sam Querrey, if the American survives to the third round. In the quartefinals, Federer is likely to face either Cilic, Ljubicic, or Nicolas Almagro. I don't see any of these players upsetting the Fed, but I would have said that about everyone who's beaten him since January this year. So we'll just see what kind of form he brings to his first clay-court tournament of the year.
Nadal is the third seed here, and he ended up in Federer's half of the draw. That means it's possible that we'll have the first Nadal-Federer matchup outside of a final in a regular tournament (end of year tourney doesn't count) since Roland Garros in 2005. To do that, Rafael Nadal will have a handful of challenging players to make his way through. Kohlschreiber, Monaco, and Soderling are the likeliest candidates. But if he plays the way he played in Monte Carlo, none of these players poses a real threat. The other potential opponents he might find - Berdych, Wawrinka, Andreev, Hanescu, Melzer - are all fine players, but none of them have the pedigree that they need to seriously challenge the king of clay. I really hope to see a Nadal-Soderling quarterfinal, because I bet that Nadal will want to get some revenge for his loss at the French Open last year. If Nadal is healthy and fit, he's through to the semifinals. It's as simple as that.
Since the semifinal on that half of the draw is looking like it could be Federer-Nadal, the other half of the draw seems like it could be a competition for the chance to lose in the final. Murray is the fourth seed here in Rome, despite dropping down to five in the rankings this week behind Juan Martin Del Potro, who hasn't even been playing. He's also on a three-match losing streak, which is almost unbelievable for a top five player. I would be shocked if that trend continued here, because Murray opens against Andreas Seppi, and has a three-match win streak against the Italian. Once he gets a win under his belt, he might be able to put together his first good tournament since his run to the Aussie Open final. His quarter is not the strongest, with two exceptions - Ferrer and Ferrero are there, and Murray might find one in the third round and the other in the quarters. He could also see Tsonga there, who might open against Thiemo De Bakker, who beat him last week in Barcelona. Other than that, there aren't a lot of likely contenders in Murray's section, which is hopeful for him.
The final quarter of the draw features second seed Novak Djokovic seeded to meet Barcelona champion Fernando Verdasco in the quarters, assuming the Spaniard isn't burnt out after reaching a final and winning a tournament in consecutive weeks. There's an interesting match-up here between Mikhail Youzhny and Lleyton Hewitt, who has yet to get his year going, thus far. John Isner is also in this section, the top American (of two) in the draw, and he plays Horacio Zeballos in the first round. He may get Bellucci in the second round and Djokovic in the third - it's a tough ask for the big American, but at least he's not getting Federer. Still, it's a longshot to think that a US player can make a deep run here.
The clay court season has been relatively straightforward, with two Spaniards, an Argentine, and a Swiss player winning the four tournaments that have taken place so far. I think it's likely that a Spaniard or Swiss player will win this tournament, too.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Barcelona Semifinals
In the quartefinals, I figured that there were three matches which could potentially have upsets. In the end, only one of them did, but it was an impressive upset. While Verdasco breezed past Gulbis and Ferrer had as little trouble with Bellucci as Soderling had with Schwank, Tsonga found himself in a real dogfight with Dutch youngster Thiemo De Bakker.
De Bakker has now had his first career top-ten victory against Tsonga, which is an impressive followup after beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last round. Tsonga was among the least accomplished clay court players that he could have faced at this stage, though. His next opponent will be last year's French Open finalist, Robin Soderling, who has yet to really break a sweat over the course of this tournament. It will be a tough ask for De Bakker to keep his tournament rolling at this stage, but he has a chance. You have to favor the Swede, but we could be looking at one of the future's big clay court players.
The other semifinal is much more of a toss-up, between two veteran Spaniards, who are no strangers to the red clay. Verdasco and Ferrer have met on tour eight times thus far, with Verdasco leading the head to head 5-3, and 5-2 on clay courts. He's also won the last two meetings, so the numbers seem to favor "Hot Sauce." The only stat seemingly in Ferrer's favor is that he beat Verdasco here in Barcelona in 2005. It could go either way, though, as Ferrer's career record on clay is more impressive than Verdasco's.
No matter what, this will be an exciting final on Sunday.
De Bakker has now had his first career top-ten victory against Tsonga, which is an impressive followup after beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last round. Tsonga was among the least accomplished clay court players that he could have faced at this stage, though. His next opponent will be last year's French Open finalist, Robin Soderling, who has yet to really break a sweat over the course of this tournament. It will be a tough ask for De Bakker to keep his tournament rolling at this stage, but he has a chance. You have to favor the Swede, but we could be looking at one of the future's big clay court players.
The other semifinal is much more of a toss-up, between two veteran Spaniards, who are no strangers to the red clay. Verdasco and Ferrer have met on tour eight times thus far, with Verdasco leading the head to head 5-3, and 5-2 on clay courts. He's also won the last two meetings, so the numbers seem to favor "Hot Sauce." The only stat seemingly in Ferrer's favor is that he beat Verdasco here in Barcelona in 2005. It could go either way, though, as Ferrer's career record on clay is more impressive than Verdasco's.
No matter what, this will be an exciting final on Sunday.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Barcelona Quarterfinals
We're down to the last eight in Barcelona, and the field looks almost the way you'd expect at this stage. With Nadal out of the draw, it's actually interesting to see who might make it through to the finish. There have been a handful of upsets, and the remaining match-ups are mostly good.
The only one that I think will probably be uneven is the only match-up featuring a real pretender. Second seed Robin Soderling faces Eduardo Schwank, who had a good win over Fabio Fognini in the first round, but then beat a hobbled Hewitt and lucky loser Ivan Navarro. Expect the Swede to do well in that match. Schwank is only a few weeks removed from being fined for failing to give his best effort against Juan Ignacio Chela in Houston, which doesn't help his chances here.
The other three matches could all be competitive. While everyone was expecting a rematch from last week between Tsonga and Ferrero, young Danish spoiler Thiemo De Bakker upset the player with the most wins on clay this year, winning the first and third sets of his match against Ferrero in tiebreaks. Big win for De Bakker. Against Tsonga, he'll also have a tough time, but this is his favorite surface, and he may be ready to make his move.
The other two matches both feature young guns against seasoned veterans, as well. Ernests Gulbis has had an easy road to the quarterfinals, as both of the seeds in his section were upset before Gulbis in turn beat their vanquishers. He now faces Fernando Verdasco. Gulbis is still trying to build off the momentum he should have gained by winning his first title in Del Ray Beach and to recapture the magic during his breakout run at the French Open two years ago. A deep run here could do the trick.
The last match-up is between two players who have already demonstrated their bona fides on the crushed brick. David Ferrer and Tomaz Bellucci are playing for what would have been Nadal's semifinal spot, so they know what a chance they've been given. Ferrer won their only meeting, earlier this year, and I favor him again, but Bellucci has a shot.
Everyone left in the draw knows that they dodged a freight train with Nadal's withdrawal, so expect everyone to be eager to take advantage of this unexpected chance to win a title. And everyone left has been hot. Of the eight players left in the draw, only Tsonga, Schwank, and De Bakker have not already won a title this year. So this is a tough field to get through.
The only one that I think will probably be uneven is the only match-up featuring a real pretender. Second seed Robin Soderling faces Eduardo Schwank, who had a good win over Fabio Fognini in the first round, but then beat a hobbled Hewitt and lucky loser Ivan Navarro. Expect the Swede to do well in that match. Schwank is only a few weeks removed from being fined for failing to give his best effort against Juan Ignacio Chela in Houston, which doesn't help his chances here.
The other three matches could all be competitive. While everyone was expecting a rematch from last week between Tsonga and Ferrero, young Danish spoiler Thiemo De Bakker upset the player with the most wins on clay this year, winning the first and third sets of his match against Ferrero in tiebreaks. Big win for De Bakker. Against Tsonga, he'll also have a tough time, but this is his favorite surface, and he may be ready to make his move.
The other two matches both feature young guns against seasoned veterans, as well. Ernests Gulbis has had an easy road to the quarterfinals, as both of the seeds in his section were upset before Gulbis in turn beat their vanquishers. He now faces Fernando Verdasco. Gulbis is still trying to build off the momentum he should have gained by winning his first title in Del Ray Beach and to recapture the magic during his breakout run at the French Open two years ago. A deep run here could do the trick.
The last match-up is between two players who have already demonstrated their bona fides on the crushed brick. David Ferrer and Tomaz Bellucci are playing for what would have been Nadal's semifinal spot, so they know what a chance they've been given. Ferrer won their only meeting, earlier this year, and I favor him again, but Bellucci has a shot.
Everyone left in the draw knows that they dodged a freight train with Nadal's withdrawal, so expect everyone to be eager to take advantage of this unexpected chance to win a title. And everyone left has been hot. Of the eight players left in the draw, only Tsonga, Schwank, and De Bakker have not already won a title this year. So this is a tough field to get through.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Barcelona Round of 16
So the Barcelona tournament has lost a bit of its star power. Nadal withdrew before the tournament started, in a decision which I think is probably for the best. He demolished the field in Monte Carlo, but the clay court season is long, and he doesn't want to run out of steam during the French Open, like he did last time. He wasn't the only withdrawal, as Tomas Berdych also pulled out before the tourney began. Robredo also retired with injury once his match started, knocking three of the tournament's 16 seeds.
Several of the others who had a possibility to go deep in the tournament have already lost. Juan Monaco lost to Gimeno-Traver, Lleyton Hewitt to Eduardo Schwank, Fernando Gonzalez to qualifier Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Albert Montanes to Jeremy Chardy, who then lost to Ernests Gulbis.
Since the tournament's order has been upset, the matches on the docket for tomorrow are a motley assortment of crackerjack matchups between the seeds that remain and surprising contests from players that aren't very familiar. Tomorrow's best matchup is between Nicolas Almagro and JW Tsonga, which should feature plenty of really big hitting. Soderling also faces Feliciano Lopez, which should feature a few aces.
With Nadal's withdrawal, this tournament completely opens up, and this is a really important tournament for every player hoping to put together a good clay-court season. Next week's tournament in Rome almost certainly belongs to one of the world's top three players, as does the tournament in Madrid a couple weeks after that. There are only a handful of other clay court tournaments, and they're all 250-level.
So look for Ferrer, Ferrero, and Verdasco to continue the Spanish dominance on this surface, while Tsonga wants to prep for his French Open run. Robin Soderling wants to try to equal his clay court effort from last year, and there are a handful of young guns hoping to take the tournament: Tomaz Bellucci, Ernests Gulbis, and Thiemo De Bakker. These last few rounds suddenly got very interesting, without Nadal around to burn through the rest of the field.
Several of the others who had a possibility to go deep in the tournament have already lost. Juan Monaco lost to Gimeno-Traver, Lleyton Hewitt to Eduardo Schwank, Fernando Gonzalez to qualifier Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Albert Montanes to Jeremy Chardy, who then lost to Ernests Gulbis.
Since the tournament's order has been upset, the matches on the docket for tomorrow are a motley assortment of crackerjack matchups between the seeds that remain and surprising contests from players that aren't very familiar. Tomorrow's best matchup is between Nicolas Almagro and JW Tsonga, which should feature plenty of really big hitting. Soderling also faces Feliciano Lopez, which should feature a few aces.
With Nadal's withdrawal, this tournament completely opens up, and this is a really important tournament for every player hoping to put together a good clay-court season. Next week's tournament in Rome almost certainly belongs to one of the world's top three players, as does the tournament in Madrid a couple weeks after that. There are only a handful of other clay court tournaments, and they're all 250-level.
So look for Ferrer, Ferrero, and Verdasco to continue the Spanish dominance on this surface, while Tsonga wants to prep for his French Open run. Robin Soderling wants to try to equal his clay court effort from last year, and there are a handful of young guns hoping to take the tournament: Tomaz Bellucci, Ernests Gulbis, and Thiemo De Bakker. These last few rounds suddenly got very interesting, without Nadal around to burn through the rest of the field.
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