The wrap-up will be quick, because I have a lot to say about the French Open. First of all, congratulations to Argentina for beating America in the Dusseldorf team tournament. I'm still not sure about the format - why was Robbie Ginepri playing to keep the U.S. alive, rather than John Isner? Oh well. It should be good practice for the Americans, heading into the French Open, and a nice confidence boost for the Argentines.
In Nice, Richard Gasquet won the inaugural tournament, in an exciting final match against Fernando Verdasco. The Spaniard served for the championship, but was broken, and then Gasquet took the tournament in a tiebreak. Well done - it's been a long road for Gasquet, who had not won a tournament since 2007. Will he be able to build on this win? We'll have to wait and see. Anyway, on to the French Open. There's no doubt that it's an exciting draw. As per usual, I'll go quarter by quarter.
First of all, Roger Federer's quarter. If Rog makes it out of this quarter, he breaks the record for most weeks at number one. Will he be able to do it? Well, he could have definitely asked for a smoother route to that record, but it's hard for me to see him losing before the semis. He opens against Australian vet Peter Luczak, who shouldn't give him any trouble. After that, he might face Janko Tipsarevic, who pushed Federer hard a couple years ago at the Aussie Open, but he probably won't be able to upset Federer on clay. After that, it's probably either Olivier Rochus or Feliciano Lopez. Both solid players, but Federer is 7-0 against each of them. Things get a little more interesting in the next couple of rounds. It's likely that Fed's fourth round opponent will be either Stan Wawrinka or Gael Monfils. Two solid clay-courters, but neither has been playing at their top level this year, especially in big matches. I don't think there are a lot of floaters in that 1/8th of the draw. The bottom half of Fed's quarter is a different story.
Soderling is the top seed here, and he's going to have a hell of a time equalling his run to the finals from last year. As if beating Nadal on the terre battue wasn't hard enough. The Swede should be able to make it through a couple rounds, but he could find himself facing Albert Montanes in the third, followed by either Marin Cilic, Leonardo Mayer, or Ernests Gulbis in the fourth. I would not be shocked if any of those five players made it to the quarters to face Federer. But who could beat him there? Whichever player made it that far would have to play the best match of his life. I see Fed making it into the semis. Gulbis is the closest thing this quarter has to a dark horse - and he has the best opening round match, too, against Frenchman Julien Benneteau.
The second quarter is probably the most wide open, overall. It should be Andy Murray's quarter, but after going 6-1 in his first tournament of the year, he's gone 7-6 since then. That's not going to give him a lot of confidence, and he starts off against an inspired Richard Gasquet. Murray is in danger of losing that match, honestly. He lost to JW Tsonga in the first round at the Aussie Open when Tsonga made his run to the final. It's possible for something similar to happen here. And whoever wins that match has a good chance of going deep, because that 1/8th of the draw is stacked with people who are not that comfortable on red clay.
The first seed that Murray/Gasquet could meet is Marcos Baghdatis, and then it's either Tomas Berdych or John Isner. All great hardcourt players, but their big-hitting strategies are tougher to employ effectively on the slow clay. The possible dark horses here are Marco Chiudinelli, who hasn't been able to play as well this year as he did at the end of 2009, and possibly Juan Ignacio Chela. He could sneak through if the winner of the Murray/Gasquet match is worn out.
The bottom 1/8th of this draw is much tougher, with more capable dirtballers in action. Tommy Robredo opens against Viktor Troick in one of the best opening round match-ups. Mikhail Youzhny is also here, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and JW Tsonga. The Frenchman could face a player who made some noise here last year, Josselin Ouanna, in the second round. Unfortunately for him, Ouanna plays just like Tsonga, except not as well. Also, keep an eye out for Thiemo De Bakker in this section of the draw. Like I said, this is a very open quarter, but I think it'll be the winner of Murray/Gasquet against Tsonga for a place in the semis. And Murray/Gasquet will probably take it.
The third quarter is also pretty open. The top two seeds - Novak Djokovic and Andy Roddick - are big question marks, because of their recent health. Roddick hasn't played a match on clay yet this year, and he does not have an easy road ahead of him. He opens against Jarkko Nieminen, and then could get two Argentines in the second and third rounds: Eduardo Schwank and Juan Monaco. And if he manages to get through all that, the American will almost certainly get David Ferrer in the fourth round. It's tough to see Roddick making it through that gauntlet of clay-court specialists. Unless Xavier Malisse, Dudi Sela, or Jurgen Melzer pulls off a shocking upset, I see Ferrer through to the quarters.
Djokovic's progress depends much more on his fitness. After starting the year off strong, he's gone 8-5 since his Davis Cup win over the U.S. Before that, he was 13-2 to start the year. And that includes retiring during his own tournament and pulling out of the last clay Master's. He hasn't played since. He'll likely get Kei Nishikori in his second round match, and the Japanese player is pretty hot coming off injury. That could be a tough match. And then, probably Victor Hanescu, who is a solid clay-courter. And after that, Djokovic could get either former champion Juan Carlos Ferrero (most likely) or perhaps Sam Querrey. Those would be tough matches for an exhausted Djoker. I think that a Ferrer-Ferrero quarterfinal is not unlikely here, with Ferrer probably coming out on top.
The last quarter of the draw is all Nadal, all the time. The most unfortunate opening round is Nadal against French wildcard Gianni Mina. It's a lot like Federer against Devin Britton at last year's US Open. It'll be a massacre. After that, he'll probably get Horacio Zeballos, a talented player who will have a good career on play. But he's no match for Nadal. And then Hewitt, in all likelihood. Again, no trouble there. I expect that Nadal will get Tomaz Bellucci in the fourth round, but he could also get Ivan Ljubicic or Mardy Fish. It won't matter. Nadal's quarterfinal opponent might be a Fernando - Verdasco or Gonzalez - or Nicolas Almagro. But he'll be through to the semis, no matter what.
I see semis with Federer and a relative surprise, as well as Nadal and another surprise. I don't expect Murray or Djokovic to live up to their seeding. I also expect it to be another Nadal-Federer final, and for Nadal to win. Nadal will reclaim his title, but Federer will get the record for number one.
I've got a lot ot say about the men, but I don't really know what's going to happen on the women's side. It seems like nobody is playing well. Serena Williams and Justine Henin are in thesame quarter, along with Bartoli, Sharapova, and Sam Stosur. That's a tough quarter. The next one has Jelena Jankovic, Yanina Wickmayer, and Dinar Safina, not to mention Aggie Radwanska. In all honesty, I have no idea who's going to make it through. You have to pick Serena or Justine, but it's a tough call.
The other half of the draw is even more up in the air. Wozniacki has a foot injury. Kuznetsova has been on a brutal bad run of form. Maria Kirilenko and Nadia Petrova are here, as are Dementieva, Azarenka, and Venus. Not to mention unseeded Carla Suarez Navarro, but I have no idea who's going to make it to the final. I'll revise my look at the women's game once we're through a few rounds, but for now, it's just impossible to tell. I'm anxious to see what happens, though!
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Friday, May 21, 2010
Week 20 Semifinals and French Open Qualifying
The week before a grand slam tournament is always a bit confused, as everyone's eyes are turned towards the big events starting next week. On the other hand, there's always a few tournaments taking place, not to mention the qualifying tournament for the grand slam. It's tough to say how motivated players are in the tournaments that take place the week before a major like this. Robin Soderling probably wanted to get a bit more experience on clay before he tried to equal his run to last year's final, and he certainly didn't expect to lose to Olivier Rochus in the second round. But he probably didn't want to play all the way through Saturday, either.
Rochus, by the way, would be a top five player if it weren't for his short stature. He can play some spectacular ball, as demonstrated in his wins this year over Soderling and Djokovic - but he's also lost to Richard Gasquet in the last three tournaments he's played. Gasquet is into the semis in Nice, and looks likely to face Fernando Verdasco. They're facing Starace and Leonardo Mayer, who have already notched big wins - Starace beat Kubot and Monfils, while Mayer beat Bellucci and Baghdatis. But they've got be worn out after those wins, and Gasquet and Verdasco have enough experience to come through, in my opinion.
In Dusseldorf, I am still a bit baffled by the format - some of the teams seem to have three players, others as many as five. It's not clear to me what to expect, but the results have been surprising. The American team, composed of Sam Querrey, John Isner, the Bryan Brothers, and Robby Ginepri, are just one win away from the finals. They beat Spain, the Czech Republic, and an Australian team that fielded Lleyton Hewitt. Impressive performances from the good ol' boys. They'll face either Argentina or France in the final, which should be an interesting match-up.
In any case, looking at the French Open, the qualifying tournament is into the final round, so everyone who's still standing needs only to win a single match to make it into the main draw. Here are some interesting things to look at it in the draw. There are a surprising number of Americans still alive - Ryler DeHeart, Jesse Witten, Michael Yani, Ryan Harrison, and Alex Bogomolov Jr. That's a pretty good ratio, so far. And I think that most of them have a good chance of getting through.
Other players who I think are likely to make it through are Somdev Devvarman, of India, and Jose Acasuso of Argentina. The most interesting match-up in the final round of qualifying is Simone Bolelli against Marsel Ilhan. Should be interesting to see how that shakes out. The only really notable loss was Gaston Gaudio, former champion, who lost pretty easily to Thiago Alves. It's a shame, since he just won a challenger event recently. There are a couple players I was surprised not to see in the draw - Donald Young and Grigor Dimitrov, to name two. But there's so much that could be going on with those guys, it's tough for me to say anything - I'm just sorry that I can't watch them in action.
There should be plenty of other action to enjoy, though. I am very excited.
Rochus, by the way, would be a top five player if it weren't for his short stature. He can play some spectacular ball, as demonstrated in his wins this year over Soderling and Djokovic - but he's also lost to Richard Gasquet in the last three tournaments he's played. Gasquet is into the semis in Nice, and looks likely to face Fernando Verdasco. They're facing Starace and Leonardo Mayer, who have already notched big wins - Starace beat Kubot and Monfils, while Mayer beat Bellucci and Baghdatis. But they've got be worn out after those wins, and Gasquet and Verdasco have enough experience to come through, in my opinion.
In Dusseldorf, I am still a bit baffled by the format - some of the teams seem to have three players, others as many as five. It's not clear to me what to expect, but the results have been surprising. The American team, composed of Sam Querrey, John Isner, the Bryan Brothers, and Robby Ginepri, are just one win away from the finals. They beat Spain, the Czech Republic, and an Australian team that fielded Lleyton Hewitt. Impressive performances from the good ol' boys. They'll face either Argentina or France in the final, which should be an interesting match-up.
In any case, looking at the French Open, the qualifying tournament is into the final round, so everyone who's still standing needs only to win a single match to make it into the main draw. Here are some interesting things to look at it in the draw. There are a surprising number of Americans still alive - Ryler DeHeart, Jesse Witten, Michael Yani, Ryan Harrison, and Alex Bogomolov Jr. That's a pretty good ratio, so far. And I think that most of them have a good chance of getting through.
Other players who I think are likely to make it through are Somdev Devvarman, of India, and Jose Acasuso of Argentina. The most interesting match-up in the final round of qualifying is Simone Bolelli against Marsel Ilhan. Should be interesting to see how that shakes out. The only really notable loss was Gaston Gaudio, former champion, who lost pretty easily to Thiago Alves. It's a shame, since he just won a challenger event recently. There are a couple players I was surprised not to see in the draw - Donald Young and Grigor Dimitrov, to name two. But there's so much that could be going on with those guys, it's tough for me to say anything - I'm just sorry that I can't watch them in action.
There should be plenty of other action to enjoy, though. I am very excited.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Madrid Wrap-Up and Week 20 Preview
There was a lot riding on that Madrid final. Both Raja and Rafa were very close to breaking Andre Agassi's record for Master's Series shields. Federer would have tied it with a win in Madrid, but Nadal broke it. That puts Nadal two up on Fed in the second-highest tier of tournament. But even though that was an important match for that reason, the consequences of this win won't be settled until after the French Open.
With this win, Nadal moves up to number two in the world again. Even though he is currently 3,150 points behind Federer in the rankings, Nadal has a serious chance to reclaim that spot after the French. Here's how it could go: Federer is at 10,030 points, with 2,000 that will drop off during the French. That puts him at 8,030. Nadal is at 6,880 with only 180 that will drop (that's what you get for losing in the round of 16), putting him at 6,700.
With a win, Nadal could go up to 8,700 points. If he does that, and Federer loses in the quarterfinals or earlier, he would only get a maximum of 360 points. That would put Fed at 8,390 - and squarely in second place. The reason that *this* is significant is because Federer is just a few weeks away from beating Pete Sampras's record of most weeks at number one in the world. If he doesn't drop to number after the French, he beats that record. If he does, then he'll need to regain the ranking - again - in order to do it. It seems almost a sure thing that he will, but it just got a lot more interesting.
Unfortunately, the week before the French Open in the tennis world is not quite as thrilling. The tournament in Nice has two of the current top ten players, Verdasco and Soderling, as well as some other interesting guys. Bellucci, Baghdatis, Monfils, as well as Gasquet and Chiudinelli. But there are also a lot of relative no-names at the tournament, so it's worthwhile to wait and take a serious look once we're in the quarterfinals.
The other tournament going on this week is the ARAG World Team Cup in Dusseldorf, which is a strange format, featuring teams from different countries squaring off. Isner and Querrey are there, but the U.S. actually seems to be fielding the strongest pairing, which is a bit shocking. Hewitt is there for Australia, and Berdych for the Czechs. Monaco and Zeballos for Argentina and Almagro is there for Spain. But this format is more of a mystery to me than the mixed doubles team tournament in Australia earlier this year, because it seems like Carsten Ball is playing doubles for the Aussies? I'm not sure. I'll take another look at it later this week.
One other interesting result from the last few weeks is the resurgence of Japanese player Kei Nishikori. Nishikori, who missed almost all of last year with injury, had fallen off the rankings completely at the beginning of April. He has now won two challenger tournaments in a row, beating four players in the top 200, and getting his own ranking up to 244. Expect him to get some wildcards in the American summer hardcourt swing, and if he gets a favorable draw or two, then he could make some noise. I'm excited to have him back, and I bet his legions of Japanese fans are, too.
With this win, Nadal moves up to number two in the world again. Even though he is currently 3,150 points behind Federer in the rankings, Nadal has a serious chance to reclaim that spot after the French. Here's how it could go: Federer is at 10,030 points, with 2,000 that will drop off during the French. That puts him at 8,030. Nadal is at 6,880 with only 180 that will drop (that's what you get for losing in the round of 16), putting him at 6,700.
With a win, Nadal could go up to 8,700 points. If he does that, and Federer loses in the quarterfinals or earlier, he would only get a maximum of 360 points. That would put Fed at 8,390 - and squarely in second place. The reason that *this* is significant is because Federer is just a few weeks away from beating Pete Sampras's record of most weeks at number one in the world. If he doesn't drop to number after the French, he beats that record. If he does, then he'll need to regain the ranking - again - in order to do it. It seems almost a sure thing that he will, but it just got a lot more interesting.
Unfortunately, the week before the French Open in the tennis world is not quite as thrilling. The tournament in Nice has two of the current top ten players, Verdasco and Soderling, as well as some other interesting guys. Bellucci, Baghdatis, Monfils, as well as Gasquet and Chiudinelli. But there are also a lot of relative no-names at the tournament, so it's worthwhile to wait and take a serious look once we're in the quarterfinals.
The other tournament going on this week is the ARAG World Team Cup in Dusseldorf, which is a strange format, featuring teams from different countries squaring off. Isner and Querrey are there, but the U.S. actually seems to be fielding the strongest pairing, which is a bit shocking. Hewitt is there for Australia, and Berdych for the Czechs. Monaco and Zeballos for Argentina and Almagro is there for Spain. But this format is more of a mystery to me than the mixed doubles team tournament in Australia earlier this year, because it seems like Carsten Ball is playing doubles for the Aussies? I'm not sure. I'll take another look at it later this week.
One other interesting result from the last few weeks is the resurgence of Japanese player Kei Nishikori. Nishikori, who missed almost all of last year with injury, had fallen off the rankings completely at the beginning of April. He has now won two challenger tournaments in a row, beating four players in the top 200, and getting his own ranking up to 244. Expect him to get some wildcards in the American summer hardcourt swing, and if he gets a favorable draw or two, then he could make some noise. I'm excited to have him back, and I bet his legions of Japanese fans are, too.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Madrid Final
Ah, here we are. Back to order as usual. At last, we have another Federer and Nadal match-up. Amazingly, in the past 365 days, we have not had another chapter in the epic Federer-Nadal rivalry. The last time we had a whole year between two meetings was between their very first and second matches. Their last meeting was on this court, at this stage, one year ago. At that time, Nadal was running ragged after playing too much during the clay court season, and he had just won the longest three-set match ever against Novak Djokovic the day before. He was wiped out, and he lost to Federer, then lost at Roland Garros, and then his year went on the skids.
Federer, on the other hand, hadn't won a title since October of the previous year, had just lost a devastating five-set final at the Australian Open to Nadal, and had broken down in tears. He had smashed a racket during a loss to Djokovic during the American hard court swing. This match-up last year changed the trajectories of the rest of 2009 for both players. Could we be looking at another watershed moment tomorrow?
Nadal's stock is rising again, but Federer's is back down. It was Federer's semifinal that was actually tougher, this year. It looked like he might lose it, at moments. Though Nadal started shakily against Almagro, he was thoroughly in command in the second two sets. Federer has had losses recently to absolutely shocking players, so will he really be able to beat Nadal, who has shown flashes of his classic clay-court brilliance of late, and even when he hasn't reached that level, has been playing better than anyone else right now?
It's hard for me to think that Federer is the favorite, tomorrow. He does need the win more, though. Nadal has dominated the clay court swing the way he always does, and he cut Barcelona from his schedule to spare his aching knees. Federer has looked listless and sometimes a bit petulant in his losses since the AO final. It's not a big surprise, considering that he knows he is capable of playing so much better. But we haven't seen vintage Federer for any consistent stretch since January. He will need to get some of that form back if he hopes to upset the king of clay tomorrow, the way he did a week ago. But if he manages to pull it off, then the French Open suddenly gets extremely interesting again. I'll be watching tomorrow's match-up with a great deal of anticipation.
Federer, on the other hand, hadn't won a title since October of the previous year, had just lost a devastating five-set final at the Australian Open to Nadal, and had broken down in tears. He had smashed a racket during a loss to Djokovic during the American hard court swing. This match-up last year changed the trajectories of the rest of 2009 for both players. Could we be looking at another watershed moment tomorrow?
Nadal's stock is rising again, but Federer's is back down. It was Federer's semifinal that was actually tougher, this year. It looked like he might lose it, at moments. Though Nadal started shakily against Almagro, he was thoroughly in command in the second two sets. Federer has had losses recently to absolutely shocking players, so will he really be able to beat Nadal, who has shown flashes of his classic clay-court brilliance of late, and even when he hasn't reached that level, has been playing better than anyone else right now?
It's hard for me to think that Federer is the favorite, tomorrow. He does need the win more, though. Nadal has dominated the clay court swing the way he always does, and he cut Barcelona from his schedule to spare his aching knees. Federer has looked listless and sometimes a bit petulant in his losses since the AO final. It's not a big surprise, considering that he knows he is capable of playing so much better. But we haven't seen vintage Federer for any consistent stretch since January. He will need to get some of that form back if he hopes to upset the king of clay tomorrow, the way he did a week ago. But if he manages to pull it off, then the French Open suddenly gets extremely interesting again. I'll be watching tomorrow's match-up with a great deal of anticipation.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Madrid Semifinals
We're up to the Madrid semifinals. It looks like order is pretty close to being restored. Both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are both in the semifinals of a tournament for the first time this year since Doha. We almost had another one of the top four in there as well, but Andy Murray fell to David Ferrer. In Spain's clay-court Masters event, there are three Spaniards and Roger Federer in the semifinals. So really, this is perhaps the least crazy Masters event we've had yet this year.
Honestly, it will be a surprise if we don't have a rematch of the Federer-Nadal final from last year on Sunday. Almagro came out of a weak quarter and hasn't had to face anyone close to the level of Nadal up to this point. And Federer seems to be trying very hard to find his form, and the Federer Express is 9-0 against Ferrer. He may have suffered a few first-time losses lately, but it's tough to see Ferrer coming through. He was pretty gritty against Gulbis, and had just enough of the right stuff to come away with the win. Ferrer was more solid against Murray, but the Scot wasn't hitting his shots. Ferrer will have to expect some tougher balls to handle tomorrow.
Nadal and Almagro each blew through their matches, so there isn't too much to say about them. That matchup looks a lot like the other semi, actually. Nadal is 5-0 against Almagro, and it's tough to see him losing that one. So we'll get our first Rafa-Fed face-off since exactly one year ago, on the eve of the French Open. It seems appropriate somehow, doesn't it?
Honestly, it will be a surprise if we don't have a rematch of the Federer-Nadal final from last year on Sunday. Almagro came out of a weak quarter and hasn't had to face anyone close to the level of Nadal up to this point. And Federer seems to be trying very hard to find his form, and the Federer Express is 9-0 against Ferrer. He may have suffered a few first-time losses lately, but it's tough to see Ferrer coming through. He was pretty gritty against Gulbis, and had just enough of the right stuff to come away with the win. Ferrer was more solid against Murray, but the Scot wasn't hitting his shots. Ferrer will have to expect some tougher balls to handle tomorrow.
Nadal and Almagro each blew through their matches, so there isn't too much to say about them. That matchup looks a lot like the other semi, actually. Nadal is 5-0 against Almagro, and it's tough to see him losing that one. So we'll get our first Rafa-Fed face-off since exactly one year ago, on the eve of the French Open. It seems appropriate somehow, doesn't it?
Friday, May 14, 2010
Madrid Quartefinals
Tomorrow we have the quarterfinals in the final clay-court Masters event of the year. It's a fairly strong lineup, but a few of the faces that one might have expected to find there are out, either due to injury or fatigue. But three of the four quarterfinal matches feature six players who have to be considered favorites to make the second week at Roland Garros.
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Of those quarterfinal matches, the one that may be the most interesting is Roger Federer against Ernests Gulbis. While the rematch between Federer and Wawrinka today was a bit of a dud, that was in large part because Wawrinka failed to show up, and Federer managed to just stay solid. I don't think he can expect the same kind of performance from Gulbis tomorrow. The court in Madrid is harder and less clay-ish than the rest of the Masters events on the surface, which would normally help Federer. But it helps Gulbis, too. I expect Federer to be in a "refuse to lose" mode tomorrow, since one loss to the young Latvian was more than enough, I'm sure. But he will have to play well - better than he has in a while - to keep Ernests from hitting him off the court, assuming he can keep his head on straight.
The other particularly interesting quarterfinal is between Andy Murray and David Ferrer. Murray has actually performed the best out of any of the quarterfinalists thus far, dropping only nine games in his first two matches. On the other hand, Ferrer is one of only two of the remaining eight players who has dropped a set. So the Spaniard has not been at his best, while Murray seems to have been playing well. But the Scot also hasn't faced the toughest opposition, while Ferrer ran into an inspired Baghdatis in teh second round. This one is a toss-up. Ferrer is likely to be more tired, while one thing that Murray definitely hasn't done lately is play too many matches. I'm anxious to see how this one goes.
The other two matches are less exciting in terms of the outcome. Rafael Nadal plays Gael Monfils, who is playing just his sixth match since March. It seems extremely unlikely that the recently injured Frenchman could upset Nadal, but no matter what the outcome, there should be some stellar shotmaking. The other quarterfinal is two players playing for the honor of losing to Nadal in the semis. Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro took advantage of a fatigue-ravaged section to reach the quarters. It's really a toss-up about who could win, but on one hand, it's not going to matter once Sunday rolls around.
On the women's side, I'm glad to see that Venus Williams and Sam Stosur, which could be an awesome match, is on center court, despite not having any Spanish players in action. The Europeans seem to care less about the women on clay than the men, at this time of year, but it's good that the tournament organizers saw that this is a match that shouldn't be missed. I pick the winner of that match to make the final, though at that point, it's going to be a tough fight against either Petrova or Jankovic. This should be an exciting weekend. I wish I didn't have a wedding to attend, because I'd stay up all night and watch tennis!
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Madrid Third Round
In second round action in Madrid, there was really only one upset to speak of, and it wasn't even on the men's side! Serena Williams lost to Nadia Petrova, way out on court three. This is not a tremendous surprise, because Petrova started the year red hot, and may just now be getting her game back. But I also can't imagine that Serena was terribly excited about the situation, playing on court three as WTA world number one. Maybe she just wanted to head off to France and enjoy some more time off. At least, it was something that was on her mind. Her sister won, though.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
On the men's side, there were a couple seeded players going down, but none that were huge surprises. Youzhny lost to Ernests Gulbis, but Youzhny had already looked sluggish in his first round match, and Gulbis is still on fire. Soderling lost to Almagro, but last year's French Open final notwithstanding, Almagro is the better clay court player. Juan Monaco beat Tomaz Bellucci, but Monaco is a veteran on the dirt, and he really shouldn't be ranked as low as he is. And finally, Tsonga retired against Garcia-Lopez. Other than that, things went about as expected.
There have been a lot of seeds losing in Madrid already - not so much the ones that people expected to go deep into the tournament, but only nine of the tourney's sixteen seeds remain in the draw at this round. The three best matches all feature seeds facing off, including the top two seeds.
Rafael Nadal faces John Isner, and while Isner doesn't have a prayer of pulling off the upset, he could make it tight, if Nadal happens to be sluggish. But Isner's big serve is going to be blunted by the surface, and Nadal stands so far back on serve, he'll be able to get into too many points. The best thing that Isner can hope for is very dry weather, or a lot of big kick serves out wide to Nadal's backhand on the deuce court. He may get to a tiebreak, but that's about all he can hope for. He's the last American man standing, so I hope he makes a good show of himself.
The other marquee match will be Roger Federer against Stanislas Wawrinka, a battle of the Swiss top two. Normally, you'd say that Federer is the prohibitive favorite here, but based on some of his recent losses and Stan's recent form, which has been pretty good, and add to that the fact that Wawrinka beat Federer on clay two years ago in Monte Carlo, it's by no means a sure thing that the Fed will win tomorrow. He's still the favorite, sure, because he's Roger Federer, and it will take a long, long losing streak before he stops being the favorite against anyone but Nadal. But he could go off the boil again. He said, after his loss in Estoril, that he really only needs to get fired up for the slams, these days.
The third all-seed face-off is between Marin Cilic, who demolished Eduardo Schwank, and David Ferrer, who barely put off a stout challenge from Marcos Baghdatis. Despite crumbling at the end of the match, it was an impressive performance by Baghdatis, who has shown flashes of his past brilliance that got him to the top ten and the Australian Open final a few years ago. If he could just get some consistency, he could be a real threat again. In any case, Cilic and Ferrer could be an interesting match - Ferrer might be getting jaded from playing so many matches, and I'm sure Cilic is eager to get some traction before the French Open. This one's a bit of a toss-up, with Ferrer as the favorite.
Other matches of interest include Andy Murray against Victor Hanescu - tough to bet against the Scot there, even on clay, which is Hanescu's preferred surface, but he's just not as good against the top tier of players. Gulbis is playing Lopez, who got a lucky loser as Roddick withdrew with a stomach bug, for the privilege of playing Roger Federer. I know I - and the fans and tournament organizers - want to see a rematch. Monfils, who is trying to play for the first time in a long while, faces off against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and I hope he's healthy.
Verdasco is playing Melzer, who also got a cushy draw, but Melzer can demonstrate some pretty impressive firepower when he neesds it. He was just a few points away from beating Verdasco earlier this year on hard courts, and "Hot Sauce" could be suffering, like Ferrer, from playing so many matches. Who knows? Monaco v. Almagro is another one that's tough to call. It really depends on how accurate Almagro is, since he's going to be blasting the ball no matter what. Monaco is a more traditional clay-courter, but if Almagro's forehand and one-handed backhand - particularly up-the-line - are firing on all cylinders, Monaco won't be able to return much. But he should get a lot of unforced errors if conditions don't suit Almagro. But home court advantage and a vociferous Spanish crowd probably won't hurt him.
One last note about Andy Roddick, who unfortunately came down with a stomach bug and had to withdraw. That's one reason why I think that the American should have played more than a single clay court masters event - if he's forced to miss one (like this one) for reasons outside of his control, that's just another big zero on his scorecard. He's only losing 180 points this week, but he's missed four of the nine masters events in the past year. Since he gets one freebie, that's three tournaments out of his possible "best 18" where he has no points at all. If I were in Roddick's camp, I would really consider revising his schedule next year. Otherwise, he's going to stay in the 6-10 range (if he's lucky) and runs the risk of running into a Nadal or Federer in the quarterfinals or round of 16 in every big event he plays. I do believe that he could make it back up to four, and then not have to face a player like that until the semis.
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