I skipped day two of the qualifying tournament to get some errands done and to better prepare myself for the two weeks of insane tennis consumption which is about to take place. But I was back today to see second round action (I'll miss the last round, because I'm heading up to New Haven for the semis tomorrow), which was even more fun than the first.
I spent less time hopping from match to match, and sat down to watch more continuous tennis. I watched two matches in their entirety: Bellucci-Dimitrov and Young-Olaso. Dimitrov was occasionally brilliant, but Bellucci was much more solid, and won in straight sets. Still, if Dimitrov can solidify his game a bit, there's no reason he can't be an excellent player. Bellucci is already on his way there.
Olaso, who I had never heard of before, tore the cover off the ball, but also gifted Young an amazing amount of unforced errors, so "the Donald" was able to win even though he didn't play that well up until the very end. He was broken twice, but was able to break six times. But Young will have to step up his game once he makes it to the main draw (I expect he will).
I also watched Laura Robson, the up-and-coming British teen, who played well but showed how young she was - 15, if you're keeping track. Her opponent was a decade older but didn't act like it. It was a fairly petulant match all around, but the tennis was okay. For as young as she is, she definitely could go far.
The other match I watched was Carsten Ball against Rik de Voest, who was impressing me by taking the first set and going strong in the second, so I left to watch some other matches. I came back later to find him in a third set tiebreak, which he really stole from de Voest, who came to the net and made unforced errors on three different points in the breaker.
There was lots of really fun tennis - I got to see Josselin Ouanna, the French player who made it to the third round at Roland Garros this year. He played great, and I think he could make some noise here. I also saw Somdev Devvarman come through a tight match. He could win a round, as well.
I was sad to see Kimiko Date Krumm lose, though. Ah well!
But I watched some excellent tennis, got some great photos, and got mildly sunburned. I will be better about applying sunscreen in the next two weeks.
It's looking like the qualifying tournament is going to be an excellent warm-up. Tomorrow, we'll know who gets those coveted spots, and over the weekend we'll see how they fit into the draw. There are two qualifier-qualifier match-ups in the first round, as well as some pretty safe opponents like Simone Greul, Potito Starace, or Christophe Rochus. But there are also qualifiers who will get rewarded with Nikolay Davydenko, Tommy Haas, or U.S. Open series champ Sam Querrey. That will be a jump in the level of competition, no question.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
U.S. Open Quallies!
I know that we're still at the end of the U.S. Open warm-up tournaments, with the Pilot Pen going on this week. But since I moved to New York last year, my focus has shifted slightly. Today was the first day of U.S. Open qualifying, and I got to take in some great matches.
It was heart-breaking to see Ryler DeHeart lose in three after coming back from a break down in the second. Last year, he made it to the second round in the main draw and lost (in a pretty tight match) to Rafael Nadal, so that's got to be disappointing.
It was great to see Kimiko Date Krumm come back from a lousy first set to dominate the next two. The Japanese veteran, back in the game after a 12-year retirement, is looking good! Not so good for Virginia Ruano Pascual, though, who lost in three. Xavier Malisse fell short, as well. Malisse played Horacio Zeballos in a battle of the weird little pony-tails. Also, Zeballos is 76 in the world, despite not having won the only ATP-level match he's played in his career? That's a bit odd. Yeah, he's won four challengers and made three more finals in the last year, but ... come on, win a tour-level match.
I also got to see young Grigor Dimitrov, who showed flashes of brilliance but wasn't quite allowed to live up to his hype in this match, thanks to the excellent play of German Tobias Kamke. He should have a tougher match-up in the next round of quallies, against Brazilian top seed Tomasz Bellucci, whose match was moved to another court and was over before I realized that fact. He won 6-2, 6-0 against Giancarlo Petrazzuolo. Odd that Dimitrov would be unseeded in the quallies, with all the press he's been getting. But other than his wins against Berdych and Navarro and his tight matches against Nadal and Simon, he hasn't really had any results to speak of this year.
I saw Carsten Ball, as well - good to see him get a win, and hopefully the young Aussie can follow-up on his great run at Los Angeles.
I also saw Stefan Koubek, Somdev Devvarman, and I saw Ekatarina Bychkova have an easy go of it against Coco Vandeweghe. And what was Vaidasova doing in the quallies? And losing! Yikes.
I also saw a couple young collegiate players who were unfortunately outclassed, but still played hard and had some fun styles to watch. I'd really like to see Blake Strode and Ryan Lipman tighten up their games and go pro.
Tomorrow looks like it should be fun, too. I hope everyone else is looking forward to the Open!
It was heart-breaking to see Ryler DeHeart lose in three after coming back from a break down in the second. Last year, he made it to the second round in the main draw and lost (in a pretty tight match) to Rafael Nadal, so that's got to be disappointing.
It was great to see Kimiko Date Krumm come back from a lousy first set to dominate the next two. The Japanese veteran, back in the game after a 12-year retirement, is looking good! Not so good for Virginia Ruano Pascual, though, who lost in three. Xavier Malisse fell short, as well. Malisse played Horacio Zeballos in a battle of the weird little pony-tails. Also, Zeballos is 76 in the world, despite not having won the only ATP-level match he's played in his career? That's a bit odd. Yeah, he's won four challengers and made three more finals in the last year, but ... come on, win a tour-level match.
I also got to see young Grigor Dimitrov, who showed flashes of brilliance but wasn't quite allowed to live up to his hype in this match, thanks to the excellent play of German Tobias Kamke. He should have a tougher match-up in the next round of quallies, against Brazilian top seed Tomasz Bellucci, whose match was moved to another court and was over before I realized that fact. He won 6-2, 6-0 against Giancarlo Petrazzuolo. Odd that Dimitrov would be unseeded in the quallies, with all the press he's been getting. But other than his wins against Berdych and Navarro and his tight matches against Nadal and Simon, he hasn't really had any results to speak of this year.
I saw Carsten Ball, as well - good to see him get a win, and hopefully the young Aussie can follow-up on his great run at Los Angeles.
I also saw Stefan Koubek, Somdev Devvarman, and I saw Ekatarina Bychkova have an easy go of it against Coco Vandeweghe. And what was Vaidasova doing in the quallies? And losing! Yikes.
I also saw a couple young collegiate players who were unfortunately outclassed, but still played hard and had some fun styles to watch. I'd really like to see Blake Strode and Ryan Lipman tighten up their games and go pro.
Tomorrow looks like it should be fun, too. I hope everyone else is looking forward to the Open!
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Montreal Rogers Masters 2009 Semifinals
In the quarters, three out of four went pretty much as expected: Roddick frustrated Djokovic, Murray frustrated Davydenko, and Nadal showed he wasn't totally match-fit yet against Del Potro. The surprise - shocker, really - was the way that Federer gave away his match against Tsonga. Up 5-1 in the third set, after winning the second 6-1 and losing the first in a tight tiebreak, Federer went on to lose in a third set tiebreak. Credit to Tsonga, but this will certainly add fuel to the fire of the questions about Federer's dedication.
In the semis, we have Tsonga-Murray. They haven't played since the 1st round of the 2008 Australian Open, when Tsonga surprisingly dumped Andy M and went on to make the final. It goes without saying that a lot has happened since then. Their head-to-head is tied at one apiece, but Murray has been vastly more consistent over the past two years (and less plagued by injuries, so here's hoping Tsonga's wrist is alright). Murray is the odds-on favorite 1.24:5, but Federer was a bigger favorite before that match. Tsonga is a streaky player who can take down the best players in the world when he's playing at his best, but he can also stumble when he should be winning the match. I think this will be closer than some might expect, but it's tough to bet against Murray.
The other match, between Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro) is much closer (nearly even money on betfair, with a slight advantage to JMDP). Juan Martin is up 2-0 against Roddick lifetime, including a win just last week in the Washington final. However, I think Del Potro may be starting to get a little jaded, and even though the second set against Nadal was a quick one yesterday, the match still didn't end until late. I also think that Roddick and coach Stefanki will have had time to examine last week's final to see what strategies didn't work (don't give him a running forehand!) and will come into this match with a revised gameplan. But Juan Martin could definitely continue his great run and make it to his first Masters Series final.
Whatever happens today, the odds are the final is going to be part of a great narrative. If it's Andy-Andy, the Brit will be looking for revenge after the Wimbledon semifinal defeat. If it's Roddick-Tsonga, Roddick will be looking to avenge a tough loss at Paris last year (which Tsonga went on to win) in which Roddick ended up with nine more points total (126-117) but was 3 for 17 on break points. If it's Del Potro-Murray, they've got some great history. Del Potro won their last meeting, but Murray broke Del Potro's 4-tournament winning streak at the U.S. Open last year. And, of course, at their first meeting in Rome in 2008, Del Po uttered the immortal line "You and your mother. You are the same always." And Tsonga has never beaten Del Po, most recently losing to him on his home soil at the French Open.
Some tennis fans may be disappointed that the top two guys are out of the tournament, because they prefer the game when one or two people is dominating the field. I would much rather have an eight-way race for every tournament, so I hope that these top players can continue to make the rest of the year look this exciting.
In the semis, we have Tsonga-Murray. They haven't played since the 1st round of the 2008 Australian Open, when Tsonga surprisingly dumped Andy M and went on to make the final. It goes without saying that a lot has happened since then. Their head-to-head is tied at one apiece, but Murray has been vastly more consistent over the past two years (and less plagued by injuries, so here's hoping Tsonga's wrist is alright). Murray is the odds-on favorite 1.24:5, but Federer was a bigger favorite before that match. Tsonga is a streaky player who can take down the best players in the world when he's playing at his best, but he can also stumble when he should be winning the match. I think this will be closer than some might expect, but it's tough to bet against Murray.
The other match, between Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro) is much closer (nearly even money on betfair, with a slight advantage to JMDP). Juan Martin is up 2-0 against Roddick lifetime, including a win just last week in the Washington final. However, I think Del Potro may be starting to get a little jaded, and even though the second set against Nadal was a quick one yesterday, the match still didn't end until late. I also think that Roddick and coach Stefanki will have had time to examine last week's final to see what strategies didn't work (don't give him a running forehand!) and will come into this match with a revised gameplan. But Juan Martin could definitely continue his great run and make it to his first Masters Series final.
Whatever happens today, the odds are the final is going to be part of a great narrative. If it's Andy-Andy, the Brit will be looking for revenge after the Wimbledon semifinal defeat. If it's Roddick-Tsonga, Roddick will be looking to avenge a tough loss at Paris last year (which Tsonga went on to win) in which Roddick ended up with nine more points total (126-117) but was 3 for 17 on break points. If it's Del Potro-Murray, they've got some great history. Del Potro won their last meeting, but Murray broke Del Potro's 4-tournament winning streak at the U.S. Open last year. And, of course, at their first meeting in Rome in 2008, Del Po uttered the immortal line "You and your mother. You are the same always." And Tsonga has never beaten Del Po, most recently losing to him on his home soil at the French Open.
Some tennis fans may be disappointed that the top two guys are out of the tournament, because they prefer the game when one or two people is dominating the field. I would much rather have an eight-way race for every tournament, so I hope that these top players can continue to make the rest of the year look this exciting.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Rogers Cup Montreal - Historic QF Lineup
For the first time in ATP history, the top eight players in the world rankings are the eight players left in the quarterfinals of a tournament. This is exciting, by itself, because it has never happened before on the tour, but it is much more exciting because it guarantees that the remaining seven matches are going to be marquee caliber.
To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.
The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.
The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.
Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.
Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.
To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.
The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.
The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.
Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.
Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
4th Round at Wimbledon 2009
The best day in Tennis: the rounds of 32 at the All-England Club. All of the remaining 64 men and women will be in action after a day off on the middle Sunday. Since the first week didn't present us with too many big upsets, we start off the business end of the tournament with some excellent matches.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Aussie Open 4th Round
The third round of the AO had it's share of disappointments, but on the whole, I'd say it lived up to its potential. The hype over the Federer-Safin match was entirely unjustified, and the way the match ended up reflected that. Safin circa 2005 bears basically no resemblance to Safin 2009.
The biggest surprise of the third round, at least to me, is that realization of how well Fernando Verdasco is playing. He's played three complete matches and lost only 12 games. In comparison, Andy Murray has played two and a half matches (since Pavel retired) and has lost 19 games. They're going to play in the fourth round, and even though Murray is far and away the favorite (8:1 at BetFair, and for comparison, Baghdatis is 3.65:1) the other Fernando could really make this a match.
Of course, the Gonzalez-Gasquet match was also spectacular. Match of the tournament, thus far. Gasquet has now been paid back twice over for coming back from two sets down to beat Roddick at Wimbledon in 2007. Andy Murray did it to him at Wimby in 08, and now Gonzo's done it to him again. It's a shame someone had to lose, because it was just a stellar match, lots of drama, incredible shotmaking, injuries, and to go to 10-12 in the 5th. Whew. Let's just hope Gonzo recovers so he can show up for his match against Nadal.
The upsets of the third round were neither that exciting or surprising, but it's good to see Baghdatis, Berdych, and Cilic all playing well. I think Ferrer, Fish, and Wawrinka are all on a downward slide.
Looking at the matches in the fourth round, the only players who I don't give more than a 10% shot to are Tomas Berdych against Roger Federer, and Tommy Robredo against Andy Roddick. Robredo is actually getting pretty good odds (5:1 on Betfair), but I really don't think he's going to do much against Roddick, who has never lost to Robredo. Similarly, Berdych is going to have to play at a level that he's never played before in order to beat Federer. As for the other matches...
Cilic-Del Potro: Two big, tall young guns. These guys will probably play a lot in the next five to ten years, so this first meeting should be exciting. Cilic just beat Ferrer, but it will be very interesting to see him against Del Potro. Juan Martin has the advantage in this match, as he's more accomplished than Marin, but I imagine that this rivalry-to-be will get closer down the line.
Djokovic-Baghdatis: The sense is that this is the most likely upset of the top four players in this round. It's certainly possible, but Baghdatis is going to have to play the way he played two years ago. Djokovic hasn't been at his best this tournament, so it's possible. But I see Djoko coming through this.
Blake-Tsonga: Oh my goodness. This is going to be great. Both of these guys are incredibly exciting shotmakers and tons of fun to watch. Tsonga says his back is in good shape, but Blake has been playing very well this tournament, too. I like JW in this one, but James could come through if he plays solid throughout. He's prone to dips, and that could be his downfall.
Monfils-Simon: Another potentially stunning match from two up-and-coming French players. Monfils is a lot more fun to watch than Simon, but Gilles has had better results last year. Regardless of who wins, they both beat Nadal the last time they played him, and he's their likely next opponent, unless Gonzalez makes the enormous upset.
Basically, any of these matches could go either way without surprising me too much, with the exception of Roddick and Federer. It would take a meltdown from either of those guys to lose those matches. The nice thing is that no matter what happens, basically any set of quarterfinals should be exciting, too.
The biggest surprise of the third round, at least to me, is that realization of how well Fernando Verdasco is playing. He's played three complete matches and lost only 12 games. In comparison, Andy Murray has played two and a half matches (since Pavel retired) and has lost 19 games. They're going to play in the fourth round, and even though Murray is far and away the favorite (8:1 at BetFair, and for comparison, Baghdatis is 3.65:1) the other Fernando could really make this a match.
Of course, the Gonzalez-Gasquet match was also spectacular. Match of the tournament, thus far. Gasquet has now been paid back twice over for coming back from two sets down to beat Roddick at Wimbledon in 2007. Andy Murray did it to him at Wimby in 08, and now Gonzo's done it to him again. It's a shame someone had to lose, because it was just a stellar match, lots of drama, incredible shotmaking, injuries, and to go to 10-12 in the 5th. Whew. Let's just hope Gonzo recovers so he can show up for his match against Nadal.
The upsets of the third round were neither that exciting or surprising, but it's good to see Baghdatis, Berdych, and Cilic all playing well. I think Ferrer, Fish, and Wawrinka are all on a downward slide.
Looking at the matches in the fourth round, the only players who I don't give more than a 10% shot to are Tomas Berdych against Roger Federer, and Tommy Robredo against Andy Roddick. Robredo is actually getting pretty good odds (5:1 on Betfair), but I really don't think he's going to do much against Roddick, who has never lost to Robredo. Similarly, Berdych is going to have to play at a level that he's never played before in order to beat Federer. As for the other matches...
Cilic-Del Potro: Two big, tall young guns. These guys will probably play a lot in the next five to ten years, so this first meeting should be exciting. Cilic just beat Ferrer, but it will be very interesting to see him against Del Potro. Juan Martin has the advantage in this match, as he's more accomplished than Marin, but I imagine that this rivalry-to-be will get closer down the line.
Djokovic-Baghdatis: The sense is that this is the most likely upset of the top four players in this round. It's certainly possible, but Baghdatis is going to have to play the way he played two years ago. Djokovic hasn't been at his best this tournament, so it's possible. But I see Djoko coming through this.
Blake-Tsonga: Oh my goodness. This is going to be great. Both of these guys are incredibly exciting shotmakers and tons of fun to watch. Tsonga says his back is in good shape, but Blake has been playing very well this tournament, too. I like JW in this one, but James could come through if he plays solid throughout. He's prone to dips, and that could be his downfall.
Monfils-Simon: Another potentially stunning match from two up-and-coming French players. Monfils is a lot more fun to watch than Simon, but Gilles has had better results last year. Regardless of who wins, they both beat Nadal the last time they played him, and he's their likely next opponent, unless Gonzalez makes the enormous upset.
Basically, any of these matches could go either way without surprising me too much, with the exception of Roddick and Federer. It would take a meltdown from either of those guys to lose those matches. The nice thing is that no matter what happens, basically any set of quarterfinals should be exciting, too.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Australian Open underway
I don't know if you've been able to watch any of the Australian Open thus far, but if you haven't ... then you haven't missed much. It's been a pretty boring tournament up to this point, in my opinion. All of the favorites are rolling without much trouble, and while there have been some very close and exciting matches (Gilles Muller beats Feliciano Lopez 16-14 in the fifth set!) they were between people who aren't really going to make it that far into the tournament.
And the only upsets of consequence were of Venus Williams and David Nalbandian, who apparently did not do too much training in the off-season. The announcers jokingly referred to him as a "teletubby" because of his paunch. Another interesting one was Fabrice Santoro (the magician!) over Phillip Kohlschreiber in the fifth set. And for his victory, Santoro gets to play Andy Roddick, who demolished him last year at the U.S. Open. Much better for Andy than Kohlschreiber, who beat Roddick a year ago in the third round! Andy now has a clear route to the quarterfinals against Djokovic, and it will an incredible disappointment if he loses before then.
Today is the first day of the third round, and we're starting to get some potentially interesting match-ups:
Safin-Federer: If Safin plays out of his mind, we could have one set of tennis that looks like 2005, but don't expect much more than that from the Russian who is playing his last year on tour, or so he says.
Cilic-Ferrer: The young Cilic is a tough competitor on the rise, and Ferrer has had some trouble with young guns lately. He lost recently to Sam Querrey and at last year's U.S. Open to Kei Nishikori of Japan. It depends on how much Cilic steps up, because you can bet Ferrer will be solid.
Muller-Del Potro: Gilles Muller has no right to be ranked so low, with his ability to pull off astounding wins every now and then. As I said, he won a 16-14 in the fifth first round match against Feliciano Lopez, and he has a tendency to win that way, after winning about four matches at the U.S. Open last year in five. I think Del Potro is just too big of a hitter for Muller, but he's pulled the upset before.
Fish-Baghdatis: Baghdatis is making good, with some solid wins over Soderling and Benneteau, while Fish's opponents haven't been of as much consequence. Still, these are both guys who are dangerous to go deep, once they get a match or two under their bet. This one could be a cracker.
Dudi Sela-J.W. Tsonga: After Tsonga toughed out a really good win over Ivan Ljubicic, he's rewarded with what should be an easy match on paper. The little Israeli did manage an upset of 30th seed Rainer Schuettler and Hanescu, but he also played his way through qualifying. If Tsonga's having some back trouble (not unlikely) then Sela could make this close.
Blake-Andreev: This is Blake's first real match of the tournament, after getting two no-names in the first two rounds. He played really well in his first two rounds, but he didn't hit much resistance. Andreev can be streaky, but he can play with the best players on his best days.
Stepanek-Verdasco: Radek "the Worm" Stepanek is on a good streak, but Fernando Verdasco has one of the best forehands in the game. To me, this is almost a toss-up.
Gilles Simon-"Super" Mario Ancic: Ancic beat big-serving "Dr." Ivo Karlovic in the 2nd round, and he gets rewarded with eighth seed Gilles Simon, who historically does not fare very well at the slams, but after the run he made in the second half of last year, I'd be shocked if he doesn't make a deep run at some point. I think Ancic's career has been unfortunate so far, with a lot of underachieving (at least in terms of tennis play, he got his law degree while he was out with illness) so his ranking should go up this year.
Monfils-Almagro: Almagro is a solid player who doesn't have the big wins in his career, while Monfils is streaky and occasionally thrilling. Will the Frenchman's talent and flashy play be enough to disarm the Spaniard? I bet so, but we'll see.
Gasquet-Gonzalez: This is a great one. Gasquet has also underachieved, so he may need to start proving himself, as he's now the #3 French player in the world. Gonzalez beat Hewitt and Canas, two baseline-running counterpunchers who aren't as mobile as they used to be. It will be quite a change to go up against the unevenly-brilliant shotmaker Gasquet. And the winner of this one gets Nadal.
Nadal is playing Tommy Haas, which should be closer than his first two matches, but I don't give him much of a chance. And Djokovic is playing Amer Delic, which is only going to be interesting because Delic grew up in Croatia, and there could be trouble when the Serbian and Croatian fans get together.
This is just the third round? Things are looking good, from this point on.
And the only upsets of consequence were of Venus Williams and David Nalbandian, who apparently did not do too much training in the off-season. The announcers jokingly referred to him as a "teletubby" because of his paunch. Another interesting one was Fabrice Santoro (the magician!) over Phillip Kohlschreiber in the fifth set. And for his victory, Santoro gets to play Andy Roddick, who demolished him last year at the U.S. Open. Much better for Andy than Kohlschreiber, who beat Roddick a year ago in the third round! Andy now has a clear route to the quarterfinals against Djokovic, and it will an incredible disappointment if he loses before then.
Today is the first day of the third round, and we're starting to get some potentially interesting match-ups:
Safin-Federer: If Safin plays out of his mind, we could have one set of tennis that looks like 2005, but don't expect much more than that from the Russian who is playing his last year on tour, or so he says.
Cilic-Ferrer: The young Cilic is a tough competitor on the rise, and Ferrer has had some trouble with young guns lately. He lost recently to Sam Querrey and at last year's U.S. Open to Kei Nishikori of Japan. It depends on how much Cilic steps up, because you can bet Ferrer will be solid.
Muller-Del Potro: Gilles Muller has no right to be ranked so low, with his ability to pull off astounding wins every now and then. As I said, he won a 16-14 in the fifth first round match against Feliciano Lopez, and he has a tendency to win that way, after winning about four matches at the U.S. Open last year in five. I think Del Potro is just too big of a hitter for Muller, but he's pulled the upset before.
Fish-Baghdatis: Baghdatis is making good, with some solid wins over Soderling and Benneteau, while Fish's opponents haven't been of as much consequence. Still, these are both guys who are dangerous to go deep, once they get a match or two under their bet. This one could be a cracker.
Dudi Sela-J.W. Tsonga: After Tsonga toughed out a really good win over Ivan Ljubicic, he's rewarded with what should be an easy match on paper. The little Israeli did manage an upset of 30th seed Rainer Schuettler and Hanescu, but he also played his way through qualifying. If Tsonga's having some back trouble (not unlikely) then Sela could make this close.
Blake-Andreev: This is Blake's first real match of the tournament, after getting two no-names in the first two rounds. He played really well in his first two rounds, but he didn't hit much resistance. Andreev can be streaky, but he can play with the best players on his best days.
Stepanek-Verdasco: Radek "the Worm" Stepanek is on a good streak, but Fernando Verdasco has one of the best forehands in the game. To me, this is almost a toss-up.
Gilles Simon-"Super" Mario Ancic: Ancic beat big-serving "Dr." Ivo Karlovic in the 2nd round, and he gets rewarded with eighth seed Gilles Simon, who historically does not fare very well at the slams, but after the run he made in the second half of last year, I'd be shocked if he doesn't make a deep run at some point. I think Ancic's career has been unfortunate so far, with a lot of underachieving (at least in terms of tennis play, he got his law degree while he was out with illness) so his ranking should go up this year.
Monfils-Almagro: Almagro is a solid player who doesn't have the big wins in his career, while Monfils is streaky and occasionally thrilling. Will the Frenchman's talent and flashy play be enough to disarm the Spaniard? I bet so, but we'll see.
Gasquet-Gonzalez: This is a great one. Gasquet has also underachieved, so he may need to start proving himself, as he's now the #3 French player in the world. Gonzalez beat Hewitt and Canas, two baseline-running counterpunchers who aren't as mobile as they used to be. It will be quite a change to go up against the unevenly-brilliant shotmaker Gasquet. And the winner of this one gets Nadal.
Nadal is playing Tommy Haas, which should be closer than his first two matches, but I don't give him much of a chance. And Djokovic is playing Amer Delic, which is only going to be interesting because Delic grew up in Croatia, and there could be trouble when the Serbian and Croatian fans get together.
This is just the third round? Things are looking good, from this point on.
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