Thankfully, the nightmare scenario I described in my last post has not come to pass. The weather was sufficiently cooperative yesterday to allow all of the qualifying matches at the U.S. Open to be completed, and the New Haven Pilot Pen tournament finished up, as well.
The most interesting result, from a busy day of tennis, was Laura Robson (the 15-year old British phenom) losing 6-7(6) 6-4 6-7(4) to Eva Hrdinova. That's a tough loss for any player, but if the stats sheet is right (which it may not be, since it's definitely listing break points wrong) then Robson served 22 double faults to only 5 aces. She's got to be better about that. But she'll be back next year - I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't have to qualify when the next USO rolls around. An encouraging performance for the 15-year old.
Verdasco beating Querrey in the final is also interesting. Verdasco (nicknamed "Hot Sauce") has had a good year, but hasn't quite been able to follow-up his excellent run at the Australian Open. Now that he's back on hard courts, will he be back at his form from the beginning of the year? It's also worth noting that he and Federer are the only players going into the open on winning streaks. But Querrey has also been playing well (he surpasses James Blake to be the number 2 American this week) so both could have good Opens.
Looking ahead to the U.S. Open, on the men's side, let's start with Roger Federer's quarter. Federer has the ongoing record of most consecutive men's semifinals, and it looks like that will continue. In his quarter, only three players have a win over him: Lleyton Hewitt (last win in 2003), James Blake (last year's Olypmics), and Rainer Schuettler (in 2002). Since James is on a particularly bad run at the moment, it's tough to see anyone getting out of this quarter except for Federer. If you're really looking for an upset, Sam Querrey is your best bet, but it's still not a very good one.
Even if the outcome is a given, there are still some interesting matches. Donald Young, who did well to qualify, is a bit unlucky to get Tommy Robredo in the first round. Also, P-H Mathieu is going up against Mikhail Youzhny, who holds a 4-1 lead over the Frenchman. The Russian is anxious to get back up to the level he was playing at a few years ago, when he was in the top twenty. His ranking is at 60, now. So this is going to be hard-fought, no question.
The second quarter of the draw is a bit more wide open. Djokovic is the top seed, but he opens with one of the toughest first-round match-ups, against veteran Ivan Ljubicic. And when he (presumably) makes it through that, he should meet in-form Australian qualifier Carsten Ball in the second. Roddick, who is really the favorite in this quarter, opens against German Bjorn Phau, and could get Dmitri Tursunov in the second. Roddick only lost once to Tursunov, but it was in a 17-15 fifth set in a Davis Cup match in 2006. What is it with Roddick and killer fifth sets?
Some of the other interesting match-ups in the first round are John Isner against Victor Hanescu, who has been playing well, Indian qualifying Somdev Devvarman against Frederico Gil, and Florent Serra against Janko Tipsarevic. If Tipsy wins, he could get Verdasco in the second, assuming he makes it through Benjamin Becker. Verdasco is a possibility to make it out of this quarter. "Hot Sauce," Roddick, and Tommy Haas are all in the same eighth, and are all possibilities to beat Djokovic (the main contender in the top half of the quarter) and make it to the semis.
It's crazy to have Nadal in the third quarter and not the last one, but with his time off with injury this summer, his ranking has dropped. Normally that doesn't make so much of a difference with who you play in the first round, but with Richard Gasquet coming back from a doping suspension, he gets Nadal right off the bat. "Baby Fed" will have to be out of practice, but if he's smart, he worked on his fitness. And Nadal is still rusty, so there's an outside chance of an upset here, hard as that may be to believe. Even if Nadal makes it through Gasquet, his second round is against Llodra or Kiefer, both tough. He also has Almagro, Ferrer, Monfils, and Chardy in his eighth of the draw. It's going to tough to see him winning this quarter. Even if he makes it through to the quarterfinals, he'll probably get either Tsonga or Gonzalez. Somebody's going to wear him down, and he won't make it to the semis.
This is a tough quarter, no question. It also features Berdych and upstart Frenchman Josselin Ouanna. Lots of hot-and-cold players here, so whoever goes on a run will make it out of the quarter. Pretty good draw for Tsonga, who has been stymied by the big servers a la Karlovic and Isner lately, and he won't run into anybody like until the fourth round at the earliest, and Berdych isn't quite that type of player. So Tsonga's a good bet to make it through.
The final quarter, featuring new number two Andy Murray, is not quite as loaded as the third, but still has some solid players. Murray opens with a match that people are calling a tough one, but Murray schooled Ernests Gulbis at Wimbledon, and the Latvian is going through one of the worst sophomore slumps I've ever seen. Smooth sailing for Murray, there. He could get Karlovic in the third round, which would be tricky. And then possibly Cilic or a rematch of the Wimbledon under-the-roof match against Stan Wawrinka. Stan would want some revenge, there.
The second-highest seed in this quarter is also good to watch - JMDP, Juan Martin Del Potro. He followed up his miraculous summer last year with another strong showing, but he has a tough couple of opening rounds as well. He opens against Juan Monaco and then could give Marat Safin his U.S. Open farewell. If he makes it to Gilles Simon, that could give him trouble, since Simon plays the same kind of game that Hewitt used to stymie him at Wimbledon this year.
Unfortunately, Mardy Fish has been hobbled with injury, so he probably won't be much of a factor, but Ferrero (who opens against Fabrice Santoro, a great first-round match) could make some noise. So could top-seeded qualifier Tomaz Bellucci. Another first-round to watch is Feliciano Lopez against Taylor Dent. Not sure where Dent has been all year, but if he's going to do anything, this is the stage to do it. All in all, it's tough to bet against Murray to make it through this quarter, but that's why we play the games. It's going to be exciting, no matter what.
I'll admit that I'm just not as familiar with the players outside the top 40 on the women's side, so it's tougher for me to analyze the opening rounds. But I'll jump in for second or third-round analysis, once I've got a better picture of what's going on. I'm interested to see what Melanie Oudin, Kim Clijsters, and Jelena Dokic might be able to do. Keep an eye on them.
Tomorrow, the action officially starts. I'll be on the outer courts, since there's more action to see, and it's cheaper than a stadium seat. I'm absolutely thrilled, and will be there at 10 when the gates open. Hope you're looking forward to watching it on TV!
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Friday, August 28, 2009
The scourge of the tennis fan...
The rain delay! So I made the trek up to New Haven today, hoping to catch two men's semis and one of the women's semis, but was met with a full day of gray skies and frustrating drizzle. At the pilot pen, not a single ball was hit today. I hung around and had lunch with my friend and former coworker, waiting to see if the weather would dry up, but signs were not so good. After a few hours, we abandoned the wait. I hung around the city until about six o'clock, just to see if things were going to improve before I hopped on the train and headed back to New York. Alas, they did not. The highlight of the day was that I did see Darren Cahill and Mary-Jo Fernandez, but they were clearly peeved about the delay, so I did not bother them.
Fortunately, I did not miss much by skipping the last round of the U.S. Open quallies, either. They apparently just got in a handful of matches and will have to finish tomorrow. Unfortunately, there are a lot of problems with this plan - first of all, tomorrow is also supposed to be Arthur Ashe Kids Day, and while it might be interesting for kids to be able to see the qualifiers playing on the outer courts, I doubt that the players, who are playing for a guaranteed $19,000 payday and the chance to get much more in terms of prize money and points, are going to be thrilled about the possibility of groups of children wandering around the grounds.
On the other hand, that might not even be an issue! Tropical Storm Danny is working its way up the northeast, and the forecast does not look good for tomorrow or for Sunday. While things should be clearing up by Monday, when the tournament proper is slated to start, this could still wreak havoc with the scheduling.
First of all, if the Pilot Pen can't play both the semis and the finals tomorrow (they seem to have played the women's semis at indoor courts this evening, at least according to the revised schedule), then their play will have to continue onto Sunday. Hopefully, the U.S. Open schedulers will try to accommodate the players remaining in the draw (Querrey, Verdasco, Andreev, and Acasuso, plus whoever is left on the women's side, two out of Pennetta, Wozniacki, Mauresmo, and Vesnina) by giving them Tuesday starts, at least.
This could be complicated if the qualifiers can't finish tomorrow, because if they have to finish up on Sunday, it would be somewhat unfair to make them play again on Monday (ideally, all the qualifiers would have had two whole days of rest), but the quallies are scattered around both sides of the draw, so that would be tough to do the usual top half/bottom half on alternating days.
And it all gets worse if no play can happen in New York or New Haven during Saturday OR Sunday! This is not terribly likely, but it's possible. They have had to leave tournaments unfinished before, but that's certainly not ideal for the Pilot Pen. I'm not sure what their contingency plans are. Regardless, if the forecast holds and the weather clears up by Monday, that could be a very interesting day at the Open. I'll be there, either way!
Even if qualifying play or the New Haven tournament does finish up tomorrow or Sunday, I probably won't make it out to see anything. I have some work I need to finish up in the next few days, since I don't expect that I'll be getting anything done once Monday rolls around.
Fortunately, I did not miss much by skipping the last round of the U.S. Open quallies, either. They apparently just got in a handful of matches and will have to finish tomorrow. Unfortunately, there are a lot of problems with this plan - first of all, tomorrow is also supposed to be Arthur Ashe Kids Day, and while it might be interesting for kids to be able to see the qualifiers playing on the outer courts, I doubt that the players, who are playing for a guaranteed $19,000 payday and the chance to get much more in terms of prize money and points, are going to be thrilled about the possibility of groups of children wandering around the grounds.
On the other hand, that might not even be an issue! Tropical Storm Danny is working its way up the northeast, and the forecast does not look good for tomorrow or for Sunday. While things should be clearing up by Monday, when the tournament proper is slated to start, this could still wreak havoc with the scheduling.
First of all, if the Pilot Pen can't play both the semis and the finals tomorrow (they seem to have played the women's semis at indoor courts this evening, at least according to the revised schedule), then their play will have to continue onto Sunday. Hopefully, the U.S. Open schedulers will try to accommodate the players remaining in the draw (Querrey, Verdasco, Andreev, and Acasuso, plus whoever is left on the women's side, two out of Pennetta, Wozniacki, Mauresmo, and Vesnina) by giving them Tuesday starts, at least.
This could be complicated if the qualifiers can't finish tomorrow, because if they have to finish up on Sunday, it would be somewhat unfair to make them play again on Monday (ideally, all the qualifiers would have had two whole days of rest), but the quallies are scattered around both sides of the draw, so that would be tough to do the usual top half/bottom half on alternating days.
And it all gets worse if no play can happen in New York or New Haven during Saturday OR Sunday! This is not terribly likely, but it's possible. They have had to leave tournaments unfinished before, but that's certainly not ideal for the Pilot Pen. I'm not sure what their contingency plans are. Regardless, if the forecast holds and the weather clears up by Monday, that could be a very interesting day at the Open. I'll be there, either way!
Even if qualifying play or the New Haven tournament does finish up tomorrow or Sunday, I probably won't make it out to see anything. I have some work I need to finish up in the next few days, since I don't expect that I'll be getting anything done once Monday rolls around.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
U.S. Open Quallies - Day three
I skipped day two of the qualifying tournament to get some errands done and to better prepare myself for the two weeks of insane tennis consumption which is about to take place. But I was back today to see second round action (I'll miss the last round, because I'm heading up to New Haven for the semis tomorrow), which was even more fun than the first.
I spent less time hopping from match to match, and sat down to watch more continuous tennis. I watched two matches in their entirety: Bellucci-Dimitrov and Young-Olaso. Dimitrov was occasionally brilliant, but Bellucci was much more solid, and won in straight sets. Still, if Dimitrov can solidify his game a bit, there's no reason he can't be an excellent player. Bellucci is already on his way there.
Olaso, who I had never heard of before, tore the cover off the ball, but also gifted Young an amazing amount of unforced errors, so "the Donald" was able to win even though he didn't play that well up until the very end. He was broken twice, but was able to break six times. But Young will have to step up his game once he makes it to the main draw (I expect he will).
I also watched Laura Robson, the up-and-coming British teen, who played well but showed how young she was - 15, if you're keeping track. Her opponent was a decade older but didn't act like it. It was a fairly petulant match all around, but the tennis was okay. For as young as she is, she definitely could go far.
The other match I watched was Carsten Ball against Rik de Voest, who was impressing me by taking the first set and going strong in the second, so I left to watch some other matches. I came back later to find him in a third set tiebreak, which he really stole from de Voest, who came to the net and made unforced errors on three different points in the breaker.
There was lots of really fun tennis - I got to see Josselin Ouanna, the French player who made it to the third round at Roland Garros this year. He played great, and I think he could make some noise here. I also saw Somdev Devvarman come through a tight match. He could win a round, as well.
I was sad to see Kimiko Date Krumm lose, though. Ah well!
But I watched some excellent tennis, got some great photos, and got mildly sunburned. I will be better about applying sunscreen in the next two weeks.
It's looking like the qualifying tournament is going to be an excellent warm-up. Tomorrow, we'll know who gets those coveted spots, and over the weekend we'll see how they fit into the draw. There are two qualifier-qualifier match-ups in the first round, as well as some pretty safe opponents like Simone Greul, Potito Starace, or Christophe Rochus. But there are also qualifiers who will get rewarded with Nikolay Davydenko, Tommy Haas, or U.S. Open series champ Sam Querrey. That will be a jump in the level of competition, no question.
I spent less time hopping from match to match, and sat down to watch more continuous tennis. I watched two matches in their entirety: Bellucci-Dimitrov and Young-Olaso. Dimitrov was occasionally brilliant, but Bellucci was much more solid, and won in straight sets. Still, if Dimitrov can solidify his game a bit, there's no reason he can't be an excellent player. Bellucci is already on his way there.
Olaso, who I had never heard of before, tore the cover off the ball, but also gifted Young an amazing amount of unforced errors, so "the Donald" was able to win even though he didn't play that well up until the very end. He was broken twice, but was able to break six times. But Young will have to step up his game once he makes it to the main draw (I expect he will).
I also watched Laura Robson, the up-and-coming British teen, who played well but showed how young she was - 15, if you're keeping track. Her opponent was a decade older but didn't act like it. It was a fairly petulant match all around, but the tennis was okay. For as young as she is, she definitely could go far.
The other match I watched was Carsten Ball against Rik de Voest, who was impressing me by taking the first set and going strong in the second, so I left to watch some other matches. I came back later to find him in a third set tiebreak, which he really stole from de Voest, who came to the net and made unforced errors on three different points in the breaker.
There was lots of really fun tennis - I got to see Josselin Ouanna, the French player who made it to the third round at Roland Garros this year. He played great, and I think he could make some noise here. I also saw Somdev Devvarman come through a tight match. He could win a round, as well.
I was sad to see Kimiko Date Krumm lose, though. Ah well!
But I watched some excellent tennis, got some great photos, and got mildly sunburned. I will be better about applying sunscreen in the next two weeks.
It's looking like the qualifying tournament is going to be an excellent warm-up. Tomorrow, we'll know who gets those coveted spots, and over the weekend we'll see how they fit into the draw. There are two qualifier-qualifier match-ups in the first round, as well as some pretty safe opponents like Simone Greul, Potito Starace, or Christophe Rochus. But there are also qualifiers who will get rewarded with Nikolay Davydenko, Tommy Haas, or U.S. Open series champ Sam Querrey. That will be a jump in the level of competition, no question.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
U.S. Open Quallies!
I know that we're still at the end of the U.S. Open warm-up tournaments, with the Pilot Pen going on this week. But since I moved to New York last year, my focus has shifted slightly. Today was the first day of U.S. Open qualifying, and I got to take in some great matches.
It was heart-breaking to see Ryler DeHeart lose in three after coming back from a break down in the second. Last year, he made it to the second round in the main draw and lost (in a pretty tight match) to Rafael Nadal, so that's got to be disappointing.
It was great to see Kimiko Date Krumm come back from a lousy first set to dominate the next two. The Japanese veteran, back in the game after a 12-year retirement, is looking good! Not so good for Virginia Ruano Pascual, though, who lost in three. Xavier Malisse fell short, as well. Malisse played Horacio Zeballos in a battle of the weird little pony-tails. Also, Zeballos is 76 in the world, despite not having won the only ATP-level match he's played in his career? That's a bit odd. Yeah, he's won four challengers and made three more finals in the last year, but ... come on, win a tour-level match.
I also got to see young Grigor Dimitrov, who showed flashes of brilliance but wasn't quite allowed to live up to his hype in this match, thanks to the excellent play of German Tobias Kamke. He should have a tougher match-up in the next round of quallies, against Brazilian top seed Tomasz Bellucci, whose match was moved to another court and was over before I realized that fact. He won 6-2, 6-0 against Giancarlo Petrazzuolo. Odd that Dimitrov would be unseeded in the quallies, with all the press he's been getting. But other than his wins against Berdych and Navarro and his tight matches against Nadal and Simon, he hasn't really had any results to speak of this year.
I saw Carsten Ball, as well - good to see him get a win, and hopefully the young Aussie can follow-up on his great run at Los Angeles.
I also saw Stefan Koubek, Somdev Devvarman, and I saw Ekatarina Bychkova have an easy go of it against Coco Vandeweghe. And what was Vaidasova doing in the quallies? And losing! Yikes.
I also saw a couple young collegiate players who were unfortunately outclassed, but still played hard and had some fun styles to watch. I'd really like to see Blake Strode and Ryan Lipman tighten up their games and go pro.
Tomorrow looks like it should be fun, too. I hope everyone else is looking forward to the Open!
It was heart-breaking to see Ryler DeHeart lose in three after coming back from a break down in the second. Last year, he made it to the second round in the main draw and lost (in a pretty tight match) to Rafael Nadal, so that's got to be disappointing.
It was great to see Kimiko Date Krumm come back from a lousy first set to dominate the next two. The Japanese veteran, back in the game after a 12-year retirement, is looking good! Not so good for Virginia Ruano Pascual, though, who lost in three. Xavier Malisse fell short, as well. Malisse played Horacio Zeballos in a battle of the weird little pony-tails. Also, Zeballos is 76 in the world, despite not having won the only ATP-level match he's played in his career? That's a bit odd. Yeah, he's won four challengers and made three more finals in the last year, but ... come on, win a tour-level match.
I also got to see young Grigor Dimitrov, who showed flashes of brilliance but wasn't quite allowed to live up to his hype in this match, thanks to the excellent play of German Tobias Kamke. He should have a tougher match-up in the next round of quallies, against Brazilian top seed Tomasz Bellucci, whose match was moved to another court and was over before I realized that fact. He won 6-2, 6-0 against Giancarlo Petrazzuolo. Odd that Dimitrov would be unseeded in the quallies, with all the press he's been getting. But other than his wins against Berdych and Navarro and his tight matches against Nadal and Simon, he hasn't really had any results to speak of this year.
I saw Carsten Ball, as well - good to see him get a win, and hopefully the young Aussie can follow-up on his great run at Los Angeles.
I also saw Stefan Koubek, Somdev Devvarman, and I saw Ekatarina Bychkova have an easy go of it against Coco Vandeweghe. And what was Vaidasova doing in the quallies? And losing! Yikes.
I also saw a couple young collegiate players who were unfortunately outclassed, but still played hard and had some fun styles to watch. I'd really like to see Blake Strode and Ryan Lipman tighten up their games and go pro.
Tomorrow looks like it should be fun, too. I hope everyone else is looking forward to the Open!
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Montreal Rogers Masters 2009 Semifinals
In the quarters, three out of four went pretty much as expected: Roddick frustrated Djokovic, Murray frustrated Davydenko, and Nadal showed he wasn't totally match-fit yet against Del Potro. The surprise - shocker, really - was the way that Federer gave away his match against Tsonga. Up 5-1 in the third set, after winning the second 6-1 and losing the first in a tight tiebreak, Federer went on to lose in a third set tiebreak. Credit to Tsonga, but this will certainly add fuel to the fire of the questions about Federer's dedication.
In the semis, we have Tsonga-Murray. They haven't played since the 1st round of the 2008 Australian Open, when Tsonga surprisingly dumped Andy M and went on to make the final. It goes without saying that a lot has happened since then. Their head-to-head is tied at one apiece, but Murray has been vastly more consistent over the past two years (and less plagued by injuries, so here's hoping Tsonga's wrist is alright). Murray is the odds-on favorite 1.24:5, but Federer was a bigger favorite before that match. Tsonga is a streaky player who can take down the best players in the world when he's playing at his best, but he can also stumble when he should be winning the match. I think this will be closer than some might expect, but it's tough to bet against Murray.
The other match, between Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro) is much closer (nearly even money on betfair, with a slight advantage to JMDP). Juan Martin is up 2-0 against Roddick lifetime, including a win just last week in the Washington final. However, I think Del Potro may be starting to get a little jaded, and even though the second set against Nadal was a quick one yesterday, the match still didn't end until late. I also think that Roddick and coach Stefanki will have had time to examine last week's final to see what strategies didn't work (don't give him a running forehand!) and will come into this match with a revised gameplan. But Juan Martin could definitely continue his great run and make it to his first Masters Series final.
Whatever happens today, the odds are the final is going to be part of a great narrative. If it's Andy-Andy, the Brit will be looking for revenge after the Wimbledon semifinal defeat. If it's Roddick-Tsonga, Roddick will be looking to avenge a tough loss at Paris last year (which Tsonga went on to win) in which Roddick ended up with nine more points total (126-117) but was 3 for 17 on break points. If it's Del Potro-Murray, they've got some great history. Del Potro won their last meeting, but Murray broke Del Potro's 4-tournament winning streak at the U.S. Open last year. And, of course, at their first meeting in Rome in 2008, Del Po uttered the immortal line "You and your mother. You are the same always." And Tsonga has never beaten Del Po, most recently losing to him on his home soil at the French Open.
Some tennis fans may be disappointed that the top two guys are out of the tournament, because they prefer the game when one or two people is dominating the field. I would much rather have an eight-way race for every tournament, so I hope that these top players can continue to make the rest of the year look this exciting.
In the semis, we have Tsonga-Murray. They haven't played since the 1st round of the 2008 Australian Open, when Tsonga surprisingly dumped Andy M and went on to make the final. It goes without saying that a lot has happened since then. Their head-to-head is tied at one apiece, but Murray has been vastly more consistent over the past two years (and less plagued by injuries, so here's hoping Tsonga's wrist is alright). Murray is the odds-on favorite 1.24:5, but Federer was a bigger favorite before that match. Tsonga is a streaky player who can take down the best players in the world when he's playing at his best, but he can also stumble when he should be winning the match. I think this will be closer than some might expect, but it's tough to bet against Murray.
The other match, between Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro) is much closer (nearly even money on betfair, with a slight advantage to JMDP). Juan Martin is up 2-0 against Roddick lifetime, including a win just last week in the Washington final. However, I think Del Potro may be starting to get a little jaded, and even though the second set against Nadal was a quick one yesterday, the match still didn't end until late. I also think that Roddick and coach Stefanki will have had time to examine last week's final to see what strategies didn't work (don't give him a running forehand!) and will come into this match with a revised gameplan. But Juan Martin could definitely continue his great run and make it to his first Masters Series final.
Whatever happens today, the odds are the final is going to be part of a great narrative. If it's Andy-Andy, the Brit will be looking for revenge after the Wimbledon semifinal defeat. If it's Roddick-Tsonga, Roddick will be looking to avenge a tough loss at Paris last year (which Tsonga went on to win) in which Roddick ended up with nine more points total (126-117) but was 3 for 17 on break points. If it's Del Potro-Murray, they've got some great history. Del Potro won their last meeting, but Murray broke Del Potro's 4-tournament winning streak at the U.S. Open last year. And, of course, at their first meeting in Rome in 2008, Del Po uttered the immortal line "You and your mother. You are the same always." And Tsonga has never beaten Del Po, most recently losing to him on his home soil at the French Open.
Some tennis fans may be disappointed that the top two guys are out of the tournament, because they prefer the game when one or two people is dominating the field. I would much rather have an eight-way race for every tournament, so I hope that these top players can continue to make the rest of the year look this exciting.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Rogers Cup Montreal - Historic QF Lineup
For the first time in ATP history, the top eight players in the world rankings are the eight players left in the quarterfinals of a tournament. This is exciting, by itself, because it has never happened before on the tour, but it is much more exciting because it guarantees that the remaining seven matches are going to be marquee caliber.
To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.
The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.
The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.
Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.
Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.
To start the day off, world numbers 3 and 8 meet in the first quarterfinal, Andy Murray against Nikolay Davydenko. Davydenko is probably under-ranked, having missed so much of the year with his heel injury. But since he's been back he's won two tournaments in a row and is riding the second longest-winning streak on the tour (after Federer). But Andy Murray loves the U.S. Hard Court swing, and made his first serious impression around this time last year. They're 4-4, so even though Murray seems like he ought to be the clear favorite (he's 1.34:1 on Betfair), this could be a tight match. I think Murray's dink-dink tennis could frustrate the Russian, or Nikolay could just hit through him.
The following match has the potential to be the most one-sided (1.19:6.2 on Betfair) between world numbers 1 and 7, Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As noted above, Federer is on the longest winning streak in the ATP, going back to his loss to Djokovic in Rome, which was in April. Tsonga has not been having the best middle of the season, after getting off to a spectacular start. After winning the Paris Masters last year, he hasn't really posted any comparable wins - his only top ten victories since then have been against a slumping Djokovic and Gilles Simon, the accidental top-tenner. A win over the world number 1 would certainly turn his season in the right direction. And for Federer, the question remains - after achieving so much in the past few months, completing the grand slam, breaking Pete's record, and becoming a father - will he be able to maintain his desire? Only time will tell.
The night matches are even more exciting. We start off with the closest match-up, ranking-wise, between Roddick and Djokovic, the 5 and 4 seeds. Roddick has won their last two meetings, but Djokovic clipped Roddick at the U.S. Open last year. Djoker also beat Roddick two years ago at this very event, at this very stage. Djokovic is looking to turn around a modest (for him) season, with two wins at minor tournaments, while he's stumbled in the finals at several Master's events. Roddick is having a much better year than he has had in a while, but he still hasn't made an impression at these Master's events. His last final was in 2006. Before he won the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick won the Canada-Cincinnati double, which I'm sure he'd love to pull off again. In order to do that, he'll have to get through the toughest quarterfinal field ever. Interestingly, even though he is ranked lower, Roddick is a slight favorite over Djokovic, 1.89:2.12.
Finally, the evening will close with Nadal-Del Potro, perhaps the most anticipated match. Even though we're into the quarters, we don't really know how Nadal is feeling. His first match was basically a walkover from Ferrer, and all credit to Petzschner for making it as far as he did, but that's not the toughest test for the world #2. Del Potro, on the other hand, is one of the most in-form players on tour. He also won his last match against Nadal, back in Miami. If Nadal is really recovered, then he should be able to fend off the big Argentine. But if he isn't at 100%, and Del Potro isn't over-tennised, then Del Po should come through. Still, Nadal is the odds-on favorite, 1.69:2.42.
Lots of great stories in play today, with a lot of questions to be answered. But it's time to just sit back and enjoy a day of great match-ups. It's going to be tough for the tennis to live up to the billing, but no matter what happens, it will be exciting.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
4th Round at Wimbledon 2009
The best day in Tennis: the rounds of 32 at the All-England Club. All of the remaining 64 men and women will be in action after a day off on the middle Sunday. Since the first week didn't present us with too many big upsets, we start off the business end of the tournament with some excellent matches.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
On the men's side, there are three sure bets, brought to us by the tourney's top three seeds:
Federer vs Soderling (1.08:13)
Murray vs Wawrinka (1.08:12.5)
Djokovic vs. Sela (1.08:12.5)
To start us out on Center Court, a rematch of the French Open final, where Soderling didn't put up much of a fight, seemingly content to play his small part on Federer's march to immortality. Afterward, though, he paraphrased the late, great Vitas Gerulaitis by saying, "Nobody beats me eleven times in a row!" He was just joking ("yolking" as he said), and Federer will beat him eleven times in a row.
And to finish on Center, the next step in the two-week long coronation of Britain's greatest hope. His record against Stan "the Man" Wawrinka is nearly even, but two of the three losses took place in 2005 and 2006, and the other was on clay, Murray's weakest and Wawrinka's strongest surface. This match has the biggest potential for upset out of these three, though. As much as he hasn't acted like it thus far, the pressure on Murray has got to be difficult, and a stern test from the 19th seed could put him to the test.
Djokovic, who is flying under the radar, continues to do so at the start of the second week, as the anonymity of his opponent has sent him all the way off to Court 3. His opponent is the biggest surprise in 4th round, diminutive Israeli Dudi Sela, who is only playing his second Wimbledon and hadn't won a match at his previous attempt. Granted, he made it through two of the weaker seeds in the draw, clay-court specialist Tommy Robredo and last year's shock semifinalist, veteran Rainer Schuettler. The Djoke will appreciate the opportunity to continue moving along quietly - he didn't deal too well with being one of the favorites last year, dropping in the second round to Marat Safin.
Surprisingly, three of the remaining five matches are likely to be upsets, according to the odds-makers. In almost half of the men's matches on Monday, the lower-ranked player is the better bet:
Hewitt [ranked 56] vs Stepanek [ranked 23] (1.31:4.2)
Ferrero [ranked 70] vs Simon [Ranked 7] (1.9:2.06)
Karlovic [ranked 36] vs Verdasco [ranked 8] (1.69:2.4)
Hewitt's recovery from hip surgery is building steam. After being stymied by unlucky draws in the first two grand slams of the year, hitting former finalist Fernando Gonzalez in the 1st round at his home slam and then-undefeated at RG Rafael Nadal in the second round at the French, his draw has been kinder this time around, due in no small part to Nadal's withdrawal. He beat an overawed and underperforming Juan Martin del Potro in the second round, but Stepanek won't be similarly struck with hero worship. "The other Radek" (say it aloud) plays a very frustrating game that is perfectly suited to the grass courts, and he used it to great effect to beat David Ferrer, whose game bears no small resemblance to Hewitt's. Both players are veterans, and this match will really come down to a question of Hewitt's fitness, both physical and mental, after not having been to the quarters at a Grand Slam since 2006. On the other hand, Stepanek has never been there...
Despite some commentator's bafflement over Ferrero's victory over Fernando Gonzalez (I'm looking at you, Brad Gilbert), he is one of the very few Grand Slam winners left in the field (count them, there are four) and this is his fourth trip to the second week at SW19. Simon, on the other hand, has only been to second week once in his career, and it was earlier this year at the Australian. All signs point to the sun swiftly setting on the irascible Frenchman's accidental run to the top 10 which began just after Wimbledon last year, but he could do himself a great deal of good by winning another couple of matches here, and he won't get a better chance the 28-year old Ferrero, currently ranked 63 places below him.
And one of the biggest surprised of the tournament is not that "Dr." Ivo Karlovic is back in the 4th round, but that he hasn't been past the first in his past four attempts! He's lost some heartbreakers to unworthy opponents on what should be his favorite surface - 10-12 in the fifth to Daniele Bracciali in 2005, 9-11 in the fifth to a rising Stan "the Man" (see above) in 2006, 4-6 in the fifth to Fabrice "the magician" Santoro in 2007, and 5-7 in the fourth to Simon "Who?" Stadler last year. There was no reason for him not to have won a match at Wimbledon in so long. As you may recall, he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round at his Wimbledon debut in 2003! So he's very excited about his run this year, and I'm glad to see him do it, even if it was a shame to see him take out Tsonga in the process. If he has a good serving day, then Verdasco is toast. If not, then he doesn't have much hope against Hot Sauce.
Finally, the last two matches have the potential to be the most exciting:
Haas vs Andreev (1.38:3.55)
Roddick vs Berdych (1.67:2.46)
Haas and Andreev played in two of the best matches of the tournament thus far, each held over from Friday to Saturday for failing light. Haas bested youngster Marin Cilic (saving two match points in the process) 9-7 in the fifth. Andreev beat Seppi in a fourth set tiebreak. Andreev hasn't been past the fourth round at a GS since the French Open in 2007. Haas hasn't done it since the USO that same year. Both of these players can be total headcases, but in this case, I'd think that Andreev's five years on the veteran German would make all the difference in the world, but with Wimbledon's day of rest on the middle Sunday, that may be enough to give Tommy the edge. The odds-makers seem to think so.
The last match also has the potential to be very exciting. Berdych and Roddick have an even record thus far, and Tomas has the potential to blow anyone off the court, if he can keep his head together (see Federer at the Australian Open this year, down two sets and break point). This will be the best test to see if Roddick can reach the semis or final this year, because if waits for Berdych to let up, he's probably going to lose. He's going to have to fight back in order to win, and that's a plan that Roddick has had trouble executing in trouble spots, these past few years. This could be an excellent barometer for Roddick's chances in the rest of the week. Obviously, if he loses, they'll drop precipitously.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
