We're into the first weekend, and the majority of the players are gone. Only 32 players are left out of the 256 which started the tournament, and the match-ups are starting to get tighter and tighter.
Yesterday may have been the most disappointing first friday of a major in recent history. In sharp contrast to the unbelievable weekend two years ago, which featured Federer getting pushed to five sets, Blake winning his first five-setter, and Hewitt and Baghdatis playing until nearly five in the morning, yesterday was characterized mostly by retirements and blowouts.
The only really competitive match was between JW Tsonga and Tommy Haas, and it almost made up for the dearth of good play in the other matches yesterday. Tsonga is looking strong, and should have little trouble with a hobbled Almagro. The Tsonga-Djokovic quarterfinal match (if it comes to pass) will be thrilling.
But looking ahead to today's matches, almost every one has the possibility (at least slightly) of an upset.
John Isner v. Andy Murray - These two have never played, and while Murray has not been challenged yet this tournament, that may actually work to his disadvantage. Isner has been on fire, hitting bombs on his serve, cracking winners from the back of the court of both wings, and pulling clutch volleys at net. Murray has such a great return that it may neutralize his best weapon, but John is more than just a big serve these days. And Isner is the kind of power player and big hitter that has troubled Murray in past grand slams.
Ivo Karlovic v. Rafael Nadal - The same could be said for this match, which features a massive server and one of the best returners in the game. If Karlovic has a good serving day and the conditions suit his game, it will be tough for Nadal to get involved. Dr. Ivo can pull off a huge upset on any given day. Remember, he ousted defending champ Lleyton Hewitt in the first round of Wimbledon in 2003.
Justine Henin v. Yanina Wickmayer - It's the battle of the Belgians! Just, not the one that everyone expected. Wickmayer is making the most of her suspended suspension, but this will be a tough ask, tonight. Justine, on the other hand, is so out of match practice that one has to expect she'll run out of gas eventually. She absolutely escaped against her opponent in the last round, so we'll see if she bounces back tonight or is even more drained than she was before.
Fernando Gonzalez v. Andy Roddick - Here's popcorn match of the night. Expect big hitting from both guys, as I don't know if Roddick will be able to grind as much as he did in his previous matches against something that hits as big as Gonzo. With Cilic's mental strength uncertain and Del Potro's injury seeming to continue to bother him, the winner of this match is almost certainly into the semis, where they will likely face an exhausted Nadal or Murray, whichever one comes out on top. This is an important match for both of these players.
Marin Cilic v. Juan Martin Del Potro - The two big guys are meeting at this year's Aussie Open, again. They played here last year, as well as at the U.S. Open. Their matches have been tight, but so far, DelPo has come out on top. Today, it's up for grabs. Cilic has shown flashes of brilliance as well as some stretches of lesser play, but so has the U.S. Open champion.
There are also a pair of Russians quietly moving through the draw who nobody seems to be paying attention to, yet. Safina plays Kirilenko, who upset Sharapova, and Kuznetsova plays Petrova, fresh off her win over Clijsters. Both of these players could announce that they're here to win the tournament, if they continue their levels of play tonight.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
Matches to watch - Day 6
Day five at the Australian featured the biggest upset of the tournament, and I expect that it will remain so through the finals. The defending U.S. Open champion lost to Nadia Petrova, which is in itself not a huge upset, but the manner in which she lost was quite surprising. Kim Clijsters didn't even show up for her match, losing 6-0, 6-1. It was her worst loss as a professional player! Very strange result, since she was one of the favorites to win the tournament.
The majority of the other matches yesterday went as expected, except for a few slight upsets. John Isner beat Gael Monfils in a great match, Jelena Jankovic lost to a Bondarenko sister, and Ivan Ljubicic fell to Dr. Ivo. All technically upsets, but none of them a huge surprise. Dinara Safina, Justine Henin, and Svetlana Kuznetsova are all still in the draw, and one of the three will almost certainly be in the final.
The third round in the top half of the draw should be interesting, though it's unlikely to see a blowout against one of the tournament favorites like we saw last night. Here are the matches to pay attention to.
Serena Williams v. Carla Suarez Navarro - The defending champion and world number faces her first potential challenger. Navarro beat Venus Williams at least year's Aussie Open, so Serena may be looking for revenge. The young, small Spanish player burst onto the scene in 2008, making the quarters at her first grand slam event. She hasn't been able to build on that success yet, though.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v. Tommy Haas - The 2008 finalist will be playing a three-time semifinalist. Both players have proven themselves to be very skilled strikers of the ball as well as being extremely popular with the fans. It's tough to predict what's going to happen in a match like this, but I lean towards Tsonga coming out on top.
Lleyton Hewitt v. Marcos Baghdatis - Who wasn't looking forward to this match? Last year's late night thriller was an amazing contest, and their meeting earlier this year was tough. Hewitt should be even more pumped after losing to Baggy so recently, while Baghdatis is eager to show that he's ready for the top ten again. This is going to be the one to keep an eye on tonight.
The majority of the other matches yesterday went as expected, except for a few slight upsets. John Isner beat Gael Monfils in a great match, Jelena Jankovic lost to a Bondarenko sister, and Ivan Ljubicic fell to Dr. Ivo. All technically upsets, but none of them a huge surprise. Dinara Safina, Justine Henin, and Svetlana Kuznetsova are all still in the draw, and one of the three will almost certainly be in the final.
The third round in the top half of the draw should be interesting, though it's unlikely to see a blowout against one of the tournament favorites like we saw last night. Here are the matches to pay attention to.
Serena Williams v. Carla Suarez Navarro - The defending champion and world number faces her first potential challenger. Navarro beat Venus Williams at least year's Aussie Open, so Serena may be looking for revenge. The young, small Spanish player burst onto the scene in 2008, making the quarters at her first grand slam event. She hasn't been able to build on that success yet, though.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v. Tommy Haas - The 2008 finalist will be playing a three-time semifinalist. Both players have proven themselves to be very skilled strikers of the ball as well as being extremely popular with the fans. It's tough to predict what's going to happen in a match like this, but I lean towards Tsonga coming out on top.
Lleyton Hewitt v. Marcos Baghdatis - Who wasn't looking forward to this match? Last year's late night thriller was an amazing contest, and their meeting earlier this year was tough. Hewitt should be even more pumped after losing to Baggy so recently, while Baghdatis is eager to show that he's ready for the top ten again. This is going to be the one to keep an eye on tonight.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Matches to watch, day 5
We're nearing the completion of our first (work) week of tennis. There was some excellent play yesterday, along with some less-than-ideal coverage from ESPN. I won't go into it further, but I was very disappointed in the way that the announcers treated the Williams sisters.
Anyway, the best match of the day yesterday was Marcos Baghdatis against David Ferrer. Ferrer started off the stronger of the two players, his ability to run down balls more effective than Baghdatis's ability to make shots. But after winning a tiebreak in the third set, Ferrer began to tire. Baghdatis won the next set, and then started to run away with the fifth. It looked like things might take a turn when Baggy cramped while serving for the match at 5-1 in the fifth, but he managed to pull himself together and get the W. An amazing comeback for a player who's back to his best. It was Ferrer's first loss from two-sets to love up. In fact, it was his first time even being taken to a fifth set after getting off to such a strong start!
The match between Juan Monaco and Michael Llodra was similar, with Llodra winning the first two sets, but fading after the third set tiebreak. It was all over, after that. The Tipsarevic-Haas match was also good, but much more up and down, as might be expected. Haas ended up to be the last one playing well, so he won the match.
In addition to these good matches, there were some excellent performances. Federer and the Williams sisters were dominating in their matches, as was Mikhail Youzhny, who backed up his marathon match against Richard Gasquet with a quick win the second round. Donald Young, even though he lost to Lleyton Hewitt in three, managed to stay with the former world number one for two sets, which is an encouraging result for the young American.
Looking ahead to the first Friday and the first set of third round matches, things are really starting to get intersting.
The most interesting matches on center court today feature Andy Roddick against the serving and volleying lefty Spaniard Feliciano Lopez, which is match that ought to feature quite a few aces. The other is Phillip Kohlschreiber against Rafael Nadal. The German upset Roddick at this stage two years ago, but it would be a massive upset for him to have a repeat performance against Nadal. Del Potro should have a lot less trouble against Florian Mayer than he did against Blake, unless that marathon match further hampered his injury. But the real contests are elsewhere on the grounds.
John Isner v. Gael Monfils - This is a magnificent contrast in styles, with one of the biggest servers in the game against one of the game's best returners. Monfils played the only match in which Ivo Karlovic was prevented from serving a single ace. But that was on clay, so we can expect Isner to get a few in. They've played a few times already and had some stupendous matches, but Isner is a player on the rise, and assuming he was able to make full use of his day off to recover, this one should be a battle.
Marin Cilic v. Stanislas Wawrinka - Cilic just notched his first win over Wawrinka in the Chennai final two weeks ago. Before that, the Swiss number two had won their first four meetings. Their most recent match went to two tough tiebreaks, and I expect that this should also be a tough one. Cilic did not play particularly well in his previous match against Tomic, so he'll need to get his form back to face the solid play and beautiful backhand of Stan the Man.
Ivan Ljubicic v. Ivo Karlovic - The number two and three Croatian players (after Cilic) are facing over in the second match on Hisense arena. Despite both players having been on tour for at least 10 years, they've only played one prior time, with Karlovic winning, but that was on grass. This should be a tough one.
And there are also three really tough women's matches on the docket, the two Belgians against tough Russian seeds, with Henin facing Kleybanova and Clijsters against Nadia Petrova. Everyone is expecting them to run into each other in the quarters, but they still have to win a couple more matches before that happens.
And there are two wayward world number ones who need to reassert their dominance. Dinara Safina, who is quietly playing very well so far, is facing an unseeded British player, while Jelena Jankovic will have to take out the second Bondarenko sister. The middle of the tournament is in some ways the best, the third and fourth rounds, because the players who have gotten this far have proven that they have good form, but there is plenty of action.
Anyway, the best match of the day yesterday was Marcos Baghdatis against David Ferrer. Ferrer started off the stronger of the two players, his ability to run down balls more effective than Baghdatis's ability to make shots. But after winning a tiebreak in the third set, Ferrer began to tire. Baghdatis won the next set, and then started to run away with the fifth. It looked like things might take a turn when Baggy cramped while serving for the match at 5-1 in the fifth, but he managed to pull himself together and get the W. An amazing comeback for a player who's back to his best. It was Ferrer's first loss from two-sets to love up. In fact, it was his first time even being taken to a fifth set after getting off to such a strong start!
The match between Juan Monaco and Michael Llodra was similar, with Llodra winning the first two sets, but fading after the third set tiebreak. It was all over, after that. The Tipsarevic-Haas match was also good, but much more up and down, as might be expected. Haas ended up to be the last one playing well, so he won the match.
In addition to these good matches, there were some excellent performances. Federer and the Williams sisters were dominating in their matches, as was Mikhail Youzhny, who backed up his marathon match against Richard Gasquet with a quick win the second round. Donald Young, even though he lost to Lleyton Hewitt in three, managed to stay with the former world number one for two sets, which is an encouraging result for the young American.
Looking ahead to the first Friday and the first set of third round matches, things are really starting to get intersting.
The most interesting matches on center court today feature Andy Roddick against the serving and volleying lefty Spaniard Feliciano Lopez, which is match that ought to feature quite a few aces. The other is Phillip Kohlschreiber against Rafael Nadal. The German upset Roddick at this stage two years ago, but it would be a massive upset for him to have a repeat performance against Nadal. Del Potro should have a lot less trouble against Florian Mayer than he did against Blake, unless that marathon match further hampered his injury. But the real contests are elsewhere on the grounds.
John Isner v. Gael Monfils - This is a magnificent contrast in styles, with one of the biggest servers in the game against one of the game's best returners. Monfils played the only match in which Ivo Karlovic was prevented from serving a single ace. But that was on clay, so we can expect Isner to get a few in. They've played a few times already and had some stupendous matches, but Isner is a player on the rise, and assuming he was able to make full use of his day off to recover, this one should be a battle.
Marin Cilic v. Stanislas Wawrinka - Cilic just notched his first win over Wawrinka in the Chennai final two weeks ago. Before that, the Swiss number two had won their first four meetings. Their most recent match went to two tough tiebreaks, and I expect that this should also be a tough one. Cilic did not play particularly well in his previous match against Tomic, so he'll need to get his form back to face the solid play and beautiful backhand of Stan the Man.
Ivan Ljubicic v. Ivo Karlovic - The number two and three Croatian players (after Cilic) are facing over in the second match on Hisense arena. Despite both players having been on tour for at least 10 years, they've only played one prior time, with Karlovic winning, but that was on grass. This should be a tough one.
And there are also three really tough women's matches on the docket, the two Belgians against tough Russian seeds, with Henin facing Kleybanova and Clijsters against Nadia Petrova. Everyone is expecting them to run into each other in the quarters, but they still have to win a couple more matches before that happens.
And there are two wayward world number ones who need to reassert their dominance. Dinara Safina, who is quietly playing very well so far, is facing an unseeded British player, while Jelena Jankovic will have to take out the second Bondarenko sister. The middle of the tournament is in some ways the best, the third and fourth rounds, because the players who have gotten this far have proven that they have good form, but there is plenty of action.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Day 4 matches to watch
It's going to be tough to top last night. The Blake-Del Potro match was a thriller, and the Henin-Dementieva match did feel more like a semi than a 2nd round. And even though the players I picked in both came up short in the end, it was great to be able to watch such high-level tennis played between two pairs of great competitors. And big props to JDMP and Justine Henin, who proved to be just a hair tougher in the pressure situations than their opponents. Best night of the tournament so far (out of three!) no question.
I've said it before, but I really hope that Blake is encouraged by this loss, since he laid it all on the line and showed that he can still play. It sucks that somebody had to walk away from that match a loser, but there's no reason he can't get his ranking back to top-20 this year, if he plays like that.
Great effort by John Isner as well, to come through against a scrappy (if inexperienced opponent) in straight sets, giving him the maximum amount of time to rest before he faces Gael Monfils in the next round. You better believe that's going to make my write up for day 5.
Since I was exhausted from the concurrent, epic matches that took place early last night, I didn't manage to stay up and watch any of the Tomic-Cilic match, but I was shocked to see Cilic stretched to five sets by the Aussie. Maybe there's something behind all the hype, after all.
After all that, it's almost inevitable to feel a bit of a letdown tonight, when there are some good matches scheduled but nothing that immediately jumps out as a contender for the excitement that we had on day 3. But who knows? That's why we play the tennis.
Lleyton Hewitt v. Donald Young - I've talked about "The Donald" before, and I really do think he has the talent to make a career on the pro circuit. I don't know what he's been doing in the off-season, but making it through three rounds of quallies and then beating a solid top-100 player like Christophe Rochus is encouraging. Of course, that doesn't mean he has much of a shot against a former world number one in his own backyard. Hewitt played very well in his first match, and he's beaten Young before. But this has potential not to be a blowout.
Marcos Baghdatis v. David Ferrer - This was originally going to be Baghdatis-Simon before the Frenchman's withdrawal, which I thought would have been a slam dunk for the Cypriot. But since Gilles was replaced with the Spanish Pit Bull, it looks like it will be tougher, as Baghdatis has yet to take a set off Ferrer in their two meetings. At the moment, only 13 places separate these two in the rankings. I think either one could conceivably come out on top, and it should be a fun ride on the way. One of the matches with the best chances for fireworks.
Jo-Wilfriend Tsonga v. Taylor Dent - Both of these players cruised in their first-round matches, but I think it's fair to bet that this round will be more challenging. Just based on experience and recent performance, you'd think that this match would go to Tsonga in a rout, but "Ali" has had trouble with big servers in the past, and Dent can serve like 2003-era Roddick when he gets in a groove. This is going to be as much a boxing match as a tennis match, so expect lots of big hitting.
I don't think that they're going to be particularly exciting matches, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the Williams sisters, who have found themselves on the second court today. They really shouldn't see this as a slight, though, since the two women's matches on Rod Laver arena today feature Australians. And pushing them off to the second stage is just an indication of the tournament's belief that both of those matches are going to be blowouts, and there's no reason for me to disagree. Watch out, Bammer and Kvitova.
The last possibility I have for a crackerjack match is between veteran player Tommy Haas and the Serbian question mark Janko "Tipsy" Tipsarevic. You never know what kind of game Tipsarevic is going to bring to the court, but if he brings his best, this one could be fun. Also, did you know that Germany (where Haas is from) has more singles players remaining in the tournament than any other country at this point? For a country that hasn't produced a grand slam winner since Boris Becker and Steffi Graf, that's a good showing.
I've said it before, but I really hope that Blake is encouraged by this loss, since he laid it all on the line and showed that he can still play. It sucks that somebody had to walk away from that match a loser, but there's no reason he can't get his ranking back to top-20 this year, if he plays like that.
Great effort by John Isner as well, to come through against a scrappy (if inexperienced opponent) in straight sets, giving him the maximum amount of time to rest before he faces Gael Monfils in the next round. You better believe that's going to make my write up for day 5.
Since I was exhausted from the concurrent, epic matches that took place early last night, I didn't manage to stay up and watch any of the Tomic-Cilic match, but I was shocked to see Cilic stretched to five sets by the Aussie. Maybe there's something behind all the hype, after all.
After all that, it's almost inevitable to feel a bit of a letdown tonight, when there are some good matches scheduled but nothing that immediately jumps out as a contender for the excitement that we had on day 3. But who knows? That's why we play the tennis.
Lleyton Hewitt v. Donald Young - I've talked about "The Donald" before, and I really do think he has the talent to make a career on the pro circuit. I don't know what he's been doing in the off-season, but making it through three rounds of quallies and then beating a solid top-100 player like Christophe Rochus is encouraging. Of course, that doesn't mean he has much of a shot against a former world number one in his own backyard. Hewitt played very well in his first match, and he's beaten Young before. But this has potential not to be a blowout.
Marcos Baghdatis v. David Ferrer - This was originally going to be Baghdatis-Simon before the Frenchman's withdrawal, which I thought would have been a slam dunk for the Cypriot. But since Gilles was replaced with the Spanish Pit Bull, it looks like it will be tougher, as Baghdatis has yet to take a set off Ferrer in their two meetings. At the moment, only 13 places separate these two in the rankings. I think either one could conceivably come out on top, and it should be a fun ride on the way. One of the matches with the best chances for fireworks.
Jo-Wilfriend Tsonga v. Taylor Dent - Both of these players cruised in their first-round matches, but I think it's fair to bet that this round will be more challenging. Just based on experience and recent performance, you'd think that this match would go to Tsonga in a rout, but "Ali" has had trouble with big servers in the past, and Dent can serve like 2003-era Roddick when he gets in a groove. This is going to be as much a boxing match as a tennis match, so expect lots of big hitting.
I don't think that they're going to be particularly exciting matches, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the Williams sisters, who have found themselves on the second court today. They really shouldn't see this as a slight, though, since the two women's matches on Rod Laver arena today feature Australians. And pushing them off to the second stage is just an indication of the tournament's belief that both of those matches are going to be blowouts, and there's no reason for me to disagree. Watch out, Bammer and Kvitova.
The last possibility I have for a crackerjack match is between veteran player Tommy Haas and the Serbian question mark Janko "Tipsy" Tipsarevic. You never know what kind of game Tipsarevic is going to bring to the court, but if he brings his best, this one could be fun. Also, did you know that Germany (where Haas is from) has more singles players remaining in the tournament than any other country at this point? For a country that hasn't produced a grand slam winner since Boris Becker and Steffi Graf, that's a good showing.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Matches to Watch - Day 3
While Maria Kirilenko managed the biggest upset of the first day when she unseated former champ Sharapova, her boyfriend Igor Andreev came up just a bit short against Roger Federer. After missing some set points in the third set and failing to serve it out to go up a two sets to one lead, Igor wilted in the fourth and Roger was through. But it was a tough match!
The upset that did happen yesterday was Spaniard Marcel Granollers five-set win over top-ten player and French Open finalist Robing Soderling. It looks like Soderling's lingering injuries proved to be his undoing in this tightly contested match. He's the first top ten seed to stumble on either side of the draw, but he played himself ragged in the first few weeks of the year, and his withdrawal from Kooyong did not bode well.
Sam Querrey's pre-Aussie Open performance also did not suggest he'd have a strong showing, and drawing a former finalist in the first round didn't help. Unfortunately, Sam was ushered out by Rainer Schuettler. I'm still hoping to see that his injury didn't effect him too much, and that he can get back to the level he was playing at during the hardcourt swing last summer.
Another American who suffered a devastating loss was Melanie Oudin, who looked to be cruising against Russian seeded player Alla Kudryavtseva, but she stumbled, despite having match points. I had said that Oudin's sophomore year would be tough, and she's off to a less-than-ideal start. But her toughness is her best quality, so expect to see her again down under.
And did I call the Gasquet-Youzhny match or what? Great hitting by both players. It's a shame that the Frenchman seemed to be hindered by an abdominal injury during much of the match, but he gets ushered out at the Aussie Open in another five-set thriller. It's got to be tough to deal with.
Anyway, looking ahead to today's action...
Elena Dementieva v. Justine Henin - This is the match-up of the day, without question. It will be Henin's first match against a top-ten player since her unretirement, and it has the potential to be a classic. Dementieva is a player who is trying to remind everyone that she's here and should be in contention at these tournaments. The BetFair odds put this match at just about even, giving Elena a slight edge. I'll be staying up to watch this one, for sure.
James Blake v. Juan Martin Del Potro - This wouldn't be a close contest, with Del Potro possibly still not having reached the height of his powers and Blake almost certainly in the Autumn of his career, but Del Po may be suffering from some injury problems, which would give the heavy hitting American a chance. You know he wants to prove himself, and this may be his best opportunity. Look for some of the hardest hit forehands of the year in this match.
Andy Roddick v. Tomaz Bellucci - Another young, up-and-coming player stands in the way of the number one American. Bellucci has more conrete results than De Bakker has had on tour, though. Bellucci has excellent ground strokes and an excellent return of serve, which could prove to be a challenge for Andy.
Yanina Wickmeyer v. Flavia Pennetta - You don't usually see two top-twenty players facing off in the second round, but Wickmeyer's ban has resulted in her crazy placement in the draw. She proved she's willing to fight in the first round (both of quallies and the main draw) but will she be exhausted when she comes up against the world's top Italian?
I'm sure that there will be more great matches tonight, but these are the ones that jump out at me for their potential. For what else turns out to be exciting, we'll just have to wait and see.
The upset that did happen yesterday was Spaniard Marcel Granollers five-set win over top-ten player and French Open finalist Robing Soderling. It looks like Soderling's lingering injuries proved to be his undoing in this tightly contested match. He's the first top ten seed to stumble on either side of the draw, but he played himself ragged in the first few weeks of the year, and his withdrawal from Kooyong did not bode well.
Sam Querrey's pre-Aussie Open performance also did not suggest he'd have a strong showing, and drawing a former finalist in the first round didn't help. Unfortunately, Sam was ushered out by Rainer Schuettler. I'm still hoping to see that his injury didn't effect him too much, and that he can get back to the level he was playing at during the hardcourt swing last summer.
Another American who suffered a devastating loss was Melanie Oudin, who looked to be cruising against Russian seeded player Alla Kudryavtseva, but she stumbled, despite having match points. I had said that Oudin's sophomore year would be tough, and she's off to a less-than-ideal start. But her toughness is her best quality, so expect to see her again down under.
And did I call the Gasquet-Youzhny match or what? Great hitting by both players. It's a shame that the Frenchman seemed to be hindered by an abdominal injury during much of the match, but he gets ushered out at the Aussie Open in another five-set thriller. It's got to be tough to deal with.
Anyway, looking ahead to today's action...
Elena Dementieva v. Justine Henin - This is the match-up of the day, without question. It will be Henin's first match against a top-ten player since her unretirement, and it has the potential to be a classic. Dementieva is a player who is trying to remind everyone that she's here and should be in contention at these tournaments. The BetFair odds put this match at just about even, giving Elena a slight edge. I'll be staying up to watch this one, for sure.
James Blake v. Juan Martin Del Potro - This wouldn't be a close contest, with Del Potro possibly still not having reached the height of his powers and Blake almost certainly in the Autumn of his career, but Del Po may be suffering from some injury problems, which would give the heavy hitting American a chance. You know he wants to prove himself, and this may be his best opportunity. Look for some of the hardest hit forehands of the year in this match.
Andy Roddick v. Tomaz Bellucci - Another young, up-and-coming player stands in the way of the number one American. Bellucci has more conrete results than De Bakker has had on tour, though. Bellucci has excellent ground strokes and an excellent return of serve, which could prove to be a challenge for Andy.
Yanina Wickmeyer v. Flavia Pennetta - You don't usually see two top-twenty players facing off in the second round, but Wickmeyer's ban has resulted in her crazy placement in the draw. She proved she's willing to fight in the first round (both of quallies and the main draw) but will she be exhausted when she comes up against the world's top Italian?
I'm sure that there will be more great matches tonight, but these are the ones that jump out at me for their potential. For what else turns out to be exciting, we'll just have to wait and see.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Matches to Watch - Day 2
Well, day one had its fair share of excitement, despite the weather in Melbourne not cooperating. The line-up wasn't completed on any court save for the two covered that had retractable roofs. There were some excellent matches though, and two seeded
players upset.
On the men's side, the upset was not a huge shock, as Radek Stepanek lost to Ivo Karlovic in five sets. It was revenge for the Davis Cup loss last year, so good for Dr. Ivo. It's a shame for Stepanek, who made the final in Brisbane in the lead-up to the Aussie Open. Another player on the men's side who had a good warm-up tournament was Mardy Fish, who took eventual champion Marcos Baghdatis to three tight sets. Fish lost to Andrey Golubev, ranked 131 in the world. It looked like a pretty sloppy match, with both players making at least 50 unforced errors. But Fish hit only 16 winners to Golubev's 44. It may have been the heavy conditions and the frequent rain delays, but Mardy has to be disappointed.
But I bet he's not as disappointed as Maria Sharapova, who lost to friend and fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko. In one of the longest women's matches in Australian Open history, it wasn't Sharapova's double faults that did her in, like at the US Open last year. Eleven is a lot of double faults, but it is half as many as Sharapova had in her loss to Melanie Oudin. It was Sharapova's 77 unforced errors that did it, and when they occurred. She actually won more points than Kirilenko, but she didn't win the ones she needed to.
Other seeds and favorites cruised - the ones that got to play their matches, anyway. In addition to the matches I made note of yesterday that haven't finished yet, here are some other matches to watch on Day 2.
Roger Federer v. Igor Andreev - This is among Federer's tougher first-round matchups at Grand Slams in recent years. Andreev is a big-hitter with one of the biggest forehands in the game. But he knows that's his biggest shot, and he'll go well out of his way to avoid hitting his backhand. Watch for Rajah to send most of his balls to that side, and then hit a ton of winners down the line when Andreev runs around his weaker shot to rip a forehand.
Fernando Verdasco v. Carsten Ball - It's tough to be an up-and-coming young player if you keep getting paired with unreasonably difficult first rounds. Carsten is poised for a breakthrough, but he won't be able to do it against last year's semifinalist and recent winner of the Kooyong exhibition. Verdasco is also a lefty with a big serve, so Ball won't have as much of an advantage as he usually does.
Richard Gasquet v. Mikhail Youzhny - Both of these players are grand slam semifinalists who aren't playing their best tennis at the moment. Both of them are extremely talented, with beautiful one-handed backhands, while both lack the mental fortitude of some of their more successful peers. While Gasquet has the edge in artistry and shot-making ability, Youzhny has more pace on his shots. It should be a good contest.
Christophe Rochus v. Donald Young - While Olivier's match against Fernando Gonzalez didn't turn out to be quite as tight as I thought it might be, the elder, taller, and less successful Rochus has a much better chance against the young American Young. But "the Donald" definitely wants to put his frustrations behind him, and he couldn't have gotten much better than the lesser Rochus brother. While these aren't the two greatest players to meet today, they should still be closely matched, so it could be a good match.
Barbara Zahlavova vs. Virginia Kulikova - A match set to finish from yesterday, these two relatively unknown Eastern Europeans (a Russian and a Czech) are at 4-3 in the third set, after the first two went to tiebreaks. The first breaker was 7-5 and the second was 12-10. Since there's no tiebreaker in the third set, this match could go on all day.
John Isner v. Andreas Seppi - Isner is riding high, having just won his first title, while Seppi is the very talented but easily frustrated Italian player who probably hasn't lived up to his talent. The only concern for Isner in this match is that he may be tired from the last week, but otherwise, he should ace his way past Seppi without a great of trouble.
Also watch for the Williams sisters in action. Serena's first grand slam match after her meltdown in New York should be interesting. I expect that the Australian fans will have (rightly) forgotten about that event, and welcome their defending champion back with open arms.
players upset.
On the men's side, the upset was not a huge shock, as Radek Stepanek lost to Ivo Karlovic in five sets. It was revenge for the Davis Cup loss last year, so good for Dr. Ivo. It's a shame for Stepanek, who made the final in Brisbane in the lead-up to the Aussie Open. Another player on the men's side who had a good warm-up tournament was Mardy Fish, who took eventual champion Marcos Baghdatis to three tight sets. Fish lost to Andrey Golubev, ranked 131 in the world. It looked like a pretty sloppy match, with both players making at least 50 unforced errors. But Fish hit only 16 winners to Golubev's 44. It may have been the heavy conditions and the frequent rain delays, but Mardy has to be disappointed.
But I bet he's not as disappointed as Maria Sharapova, who lost to friend and fellow Russian Maria Kirilenko. In one of the longest women's matches in Australian Open history, it wasn't Sharapova's double faults that did her in, like at the US Open last year. Eleven is a lot of double faults, but it is half as many as Sharapova had in her loss to Melanie Oudin. It was Sharapova's 77 unforced errors that did it, and when they occurred. She actually won more points than Kirilenko, but she didn't win the ones she needed to.
Other seeds and favorites cruised - the ones that got to play their matches, anyway. In addition to the matches I made note of yesterday that haven't finished yet, here are some other matches to watch on Day 2.
Roger Federer v. Igor Andreev - This is among Federer's tougher first-round matchups at Grand Slams in recent years. Andreev is a big-hitter with one of the biggest forehands in the game. But he knows that's his biggest shot, and he'll go well out of his way to avoid hitting his backhand. Watch for Rajah to send most of his balls to that side, and then hit a ton of winners down the line when Andreev runs around his weaker shot to rip a forehand.
Fernando Verdasco v. Carsten Ball - It's tough to be an up-and-coming young player if you keep getting paired with unreasonably difficult first rounds. Carsten is poised for a breakthrough, but he won't be able to do it against last year's semifinalist and recent winner of the Kooyong exhibition. Verdasco is also a lefty with a big serve, so Ball won't have as much of an advantage as he usually does.
Richard Gasquet v. Mikhail Youzhny - Both of these players are grand slam semifinalists who aren't playing their best tennis at the moment. Both of them are extremely talented, with beautiful one-handed backhands, while both lack the mental fortitude of some of their more successful peers. While Gasquet has the edge in artistry and shot-making ability, Youzhny has more pace on his shots. It should be a good contest.
Christophe Rochus v. Donald Young - While Olivier's match against Fernando Gonzalez didn't turn out to be quite as tight as I thought it might be, the elder, taller, and less successful Rochus has a much better chance against the young American Young. But "the Donald" definitely wants to put his frustrations behind him, and he couldn't have gotten much better than the lesser Rochus brother. While these aren't the two greatest players to meet today, they should still be closely matched, so it could be a good match.
Barbara Zahlavova vs. Virginia Kulikova - A match set to finish from yesterday, these two relatively unknown Eastern Europeans (a Russian and a Czech) are at 4-3 in the third set, after the first two went to tiebreaks. The first breaker was 7-5 and the second was 12-10. Since there's no tiebreaker in the third set, this match could go on all day.
John Isner v. Andreas Seppi - Isner is riding high, having just won his first title, while Seppi is the very talented but easily frustrated Italian player who probably hasn't lived up to his talent. The only concern for Isner in this match is that he may be tired from the last week, but otherwise, he should ace his way past Seppi without a great of trouble.
Also watch for the Williams sisters in action. Serena's first grand slam match after her meltdown in New York should be interesting. I expect that the Australian fans will have (rightly) forgotten about that event, and welcome their defending champion back with open arms.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Day 1 Matches to Watch
The first round at a grand slam is always a mix of blow-out matches, with qualifiers having run themselves ragged just getting to the main draw or wildcards falling under the buzzsaw of a top seed, and tight affairs that really should have fallen later in the tournament. It's just the luck of the draw. But even when the odds are stacked strongly in favor of one player, there can still be some surprisingly good contests. When a young gun finds himself facing a player in the top ten in the first round of a major, he knows he has nothing lose; he can swing freely, and sometimes that works out.
Looking to the actual matches, the first day of tennis down in Melbourne this year has a good deal of potential for excellent matches. There are quite a few on the docket that will let us know how some of the top players are feeling, physically and mentally, heading into the first major of the year. So let me take a look at some of my choice match-ups for day 1 of the 2010 Australian Open.
Maria Sharapova v. Maria Kirilenko: The first match on Rod Laver arena, this battle of the Marias should be interesting, just to see how Sharapova is feeling. Since she won the title in 2008 but didn't play last year, she's one of two players (the other being Serena) with a winning streak in Melbourne. She only made the third round at the USO last year, but I'm sure she'd like to get back to her winning ways in 2010.
Andy Murray v. Kevin Anderson: It's surprsing to me that Murray made it on to the center court, while Del Potro, who is ranked higher and won the last grand slam, is on Hisense Arena, the second court. It might be because the organizers expect that Kevin Anderson, the big-serving Russian and former NCAA star, could give Murray a run for his money. I expect that Murray will beat his opponent, who is ranked more than 140 places lower, but Anderson does have the kind of big-hitting power game that has troubled Murray in the past.
Peter Luczak v. Rafael Nadal: The night session is starting with a men's match, this year! And it will be a doozy. Peter Luczak is the 30-year old Australian who would is experiencing his best career run. It's a shame for him and his Aussie fans that he happened to run into the defending champion and buzz saw that is Rafael Nadal in the first round. But expect the fans to buoy Luczak, who might take a set.
Jelena Dokic v. Alisa Kleybanova: If Luczak gives Nadal a fight, expect the crowd to be especially riled up in their support of Jelena Dokic. She had a magical run at the AO last year, and they'll do everything they can to help her repeat it this year. She starts against a seed, but she probably couldn't have asked for a better seed to start against. This one could be an upset.
Magdalena Rybarikova v. Dinara Safina: The first match on the second court features Dinara Safina, who should be glad to know that she can't start off this year any worse than she finished the last one. As she struggled against opponents ranked in the 100s at the U.S. Open last year, she has to have reached the bottom. Now that she slipped from the number one spot, maybe she can forget about all the people hounding her about how it was undeserved. Maybe she'll bounce back and play the way she did to get that ranking in the first place. Or maybe she'll continue to falter.
Andy Roddick v. Thiemo De Bakker: On paper, this looks like a Roddick rout. But De Bakker is a tall and rangy young Dutch player, who has a very strong future ahead of him. I'm not saying that one should look for an upset in this match, but Roddick played an incredibly tough match against JW Tsonga in the first round of the Aussie Open in 2007, which Roddick won despite losing a tiebreaker in the first set 20-18. The next year, Tsonga made it all the way to the final.
Guillaume Rufin v. Bernard Tomic: Australian wildcard and young gun Bernard Tomic couldn't have asked for much more when he saw the draw, facing a qualifier. He may not have been thrilled to see the player that he was match with, though. Guillaume Rufin is the highest-ranked teenager on the ATP tour. That may be in 170s, but it's still higher than 17-year old Tomic. It's surprising that two of the handful of teenagers in the men's draw (there can't be more than four) would play each other in the first round. But the Aussies should have Tomic's back, and he'll probably win a match, just like he did last year here, and Rufin did at the French Open in 2009.
Olivier Rochus v. Fernando Gonzalez: Two things that you should know about Olivier Rochus. First of all, he is the shortest player in the ATP top 100. Second, he is so talented, that he would be a top five player if he was five inches taller. If you've ever seen him play, he is a lot of fun to watch. He moves amazingly well, has a beautiful, flowing one-handed backhand, and has an impressive serve considering his diminutive stature. It probably won't be enough to combat the firepower of Fernando Gonzalez, unfortunately.
Marin Cilic v. Fabrice Santoro: This is an odd match. Santoro was invited out of retirement by the Australian Open this year so he'll have the record of having played in a grand slam event in four different decades, since he played his first at the French Open in 1989. But he's said that he's not going to play it like an exhibition, and even at 37 years old, he has the finesse and shot-making ability to frustrate anyone, particularly tall, big-hitting Eastern Europeans. Cilic is a dark horse to make it deep into the tournament, but he'll have to get past a tricky opponent in the first round to do so.
Radek Stepanek v. Ivo Karlovic: This is my favorite first-round match up. After watching last year's Davis Cup tie where they played three tiebreaks and 16-14 fifth set, these guys have demonstrated that they can put on a show. Both players like to come to net, both players frustrate their opponents, and both players like to do celebratory dances when they win. If you're at the event, park yourself at court six as soon as you get in through the gates.
James Blake v. Arnaud Clement: Also on court six, this match has the potential to be a winner. Blake is trying to revive his career and Clement is just coming off a final in the most recent Aussie Open warm-up event. Big-hitting against big-retrieving, this is an interesting match-up in styles. While it could be a good match, it's also the case that Blake is 7-0 against the sunglasses-wearing Frenchman.
Rainer Schuettler v. Sam Querrey: This match looks a lot like the previous one, with a big-hitting American against a counterpuncher. But Sam Querrey has yet to win a match this year, and Schuettler is a former finalist here. Depending on how well he's recovered from his injury during the Asian swing last year, this could be a really tough match.
Looking to the actual matches, the first day of tennis down in Melbourne this year has a good deal of potential for excellent matches. There are quite a few on the docket that will let us know how some of the top players are feeling, physically and mentally, heading into the first major of the year. So let me take a look at some of my choice match-ups for day 1 of the 2010 Australian Open.
Maria Sharapova v. Maria Kirilenko: The first match on Rod Laver arena, this battle of the Marias should be interesting, just to see how Sharapova is feeling. Since she won the title in 2008 but didn't play last year, she's one of two players (the other being Serena) with a winning streak in Melbourne. She only made the third round at the USO last year, but I'm sure she'd like to get back to her winning ways in 2010.
Andy Murray v. Kevin Anderson: It's surprsing to me that Murray made it on to the center court, while Del Potro, who is ranked higher and won the last grand slam, is on Hisense Arena, the second court. It might be because the organizers expect that Kevin Anderson, the big-serving Russian and former NCAA star, could give Murray a run for his money. I expect that Murray will beat his opponent, who is ranked more than 140 places lower, but Anderson does have the kind of big-hitting power game that has troubled Murray in the past.
Peter Luczak v. Rafael Nadal: The night session is starting with a men's match, this year! And it will be a doozy. Peter Luczak is the 30-year old Australian who would is experiencing his best career run. It's a shame for him and his Aussie fans that he happened to run into the defending champion and buzz saw that is Rafael Nadal in the first round. But expect the fans to buoy Luczak, who might take a set.
Jelena Dokic v. Alisa Kleybanova: If Luczak gives Nadal a fight, expect the crowd to be especially riled up in their support of Jelena Dokic. She had a magical run at the AO last year, and they'll do everything they can to help her repeat it this year. She starts against a seed, but she probably couldn't have asked for a better seed to start against. This one could be an upset.
Magdalena Rybarikova v. Dinara Safina: The first match on the second court features Dinara Safina, who should be glad to know that she can't start off this year any worse than she finished the last one. As she struggled against opponents ranked in the 100s at the U.S. Open last year, she has to have reached the bottom. Now that she slipped from the number one spot, maybe she can forget about all the people hounding her about how it was undeserved. Maybe she'll bounce back and play the way she did to get that ranking in the first place. Or maybe she'll continue to falter.
Andy Roddick v. Thiemo De Bakker: On paper, this looks like a Roddick rout. But De Bakker is a tall and rangy young Dutch player, who has a very strong future ahead of him. I'm not saying that one should look for an upset in this match, but Roddick played an incredibly tough match against JW Tsonga in the first round of the Aussie Open in 2007, which Roddick won despite losing a tiebreaker in the first set 20-18. The next year, Tsonga made it all the way to the final.
Guillaume Rufin v. Bernard Tomic: Australian wildcard and young gun Bernard Tomic couldn't have asked for much more when he saw the draw, facing a qualifier. He may not have been thrilled to see the player that he was match with, though. Guillaume Rufin is the highest-ranked teenager on the ATP tour. That may be in 170s, but it's still higher than 17-year old Tomic. It's surprising that two of the handful of teenagers in the men's draw (there can't be more than four) would play each other in the first round. But the Aussies should have Tomic's back, and he'll probably win a match, just like he did last year here, and Rufin did at the French Open in 2009.
Olivier Rochus v. Fernando Gonzalez: Two things that you should know about Olivier Rochus. First of all, he is the shortest player in the ATP top 100. Second, he is so talented, that he would be a top five player if he was five inches taller. If you've ever seen him play, he is a lot of fun to watch. He moves amazingly well, has a beautiful, flowing one-handed backhand, and has an impressive serve considering his diminutive stature. It probably won't be enough to combat the firepower of Fernando Gonzalez, unfortunately.
Marin Cilic v. Fabrice Santoro: This is an odd match. Santoro was invited out of retirement by the Australian Open this year so he'll have the record of having played in a grand slam event in four different decades, since he played his first at the French Open in 1989. But he's said that he's not going to play it like an exhibition, and even at 37 years old, he has the finesse and shot-making ability to frustrate anyone, particularly tall, big-hitting Eastern Europeans. Cilic is a dark horse to make it deep into the tournament, but he'll have to get past a tricky opponent in the first round to do so.
Radek Stepanek v. Ivo Karlovic: This is my favorite first-round match up. After watching last year's Davis Cup tie where they played three tiebreaks and 16-14 fifth set, these guys have demonstrated that they can put on a show. Both players like to come to net, both players frustrate their opponents, and both players like to do celebratory dances when they win. If you're at the event, park yourself at court six as soon as you get in through the gates.
James Blake v. Arnaud Clement: Also on court six, this match has the potential to be a winner. Blake is trying to revive his career and Clement is just coming off a final in the most recent Aussie Open warm-up event. Big-hitting against big-retrieving, this is an interesting match-up in styles. While it could be a good match, it's also the case that Blake is 7-0 against the sunglasses-wearing Frenchman.
Rainer Schuettler v. Sam Querrey: This match looks a lot like the previous one, with a big-hitting American against a counterpuncher. But Sam Querrey has yet to win a match this year, and Schuettler is a former finalist here. Depending on how well he's recovered from his injury during the Asian swing last year, this could be a really tough match.
Australian Open Predictions
The 2010 Australian Open starts in just six hours. As I've indicated previously, there are any number of great storylines to keep an eye on at this tournament. But the greatest part about the tournament actually happening is that we don't know the way that it's going to play out. With 128 players in the draw, the number of possible outcomes for the way it will unfold is almost unimaginably vast (technically, 3.4 * 10^38), but there are some things I can say with utmost certainty.
The majority of the favorites will move through the draw as expected, but there will be a handful of surprising upsets. There will be several spectacular matches between players of comparable skill performing at their highest levels, but there will be more matches where the winner is never in doubt and one player is simply outclassed by another. Some matches will fail to live up to their billing due to mental fatigue or physical injury in one or both players. Some of the best matches of the tournament will be ones that no one expected to turn into classics, and some of the duds will be the ones that showed the most potential.
Top players will face challenged from unexpected, lower-tier opponents who manage to play the matches of their lives. At least one mid-to-lower-level player will make a statement that he or she is aiming to rise to the next level of the game. More than one top player will not inevitably not make it as far as they are seeded to go. Even though the Australian Open is famous for getting unexpected players into the final, the players who make it to the last four on both sides will all be recognizable. Even if there are first-time semifinalists, they will be players who have been touted as having that capability.
I hope that there are a couple of matches this year that reach the levels of Nadal-Verdaso or Gasquet-Gonzalez from last year, or Federer-Tipsarevic or Baghdatis-Hewitt from the year before. It would be magnificent to have a match like Roddick-El Aynoui from way back in 2002, but not every grand slam tournament has a match for the ages during its fortnight.
I hope that not too many players are troubled by injury or fatigue, but this is always a tough slam, so I think it's likely that there will be at least eight retirements in the first two rounds of the men's and women's draws. I hope that there aren't any after the fourth round.
I hope that the final lives up to its billing. We were spoiled last year with three of the four men's grand slam finals going to five sets. The last Australian Open final to go to five was Mats Wilander and Pat Cash in 1988. It doesn't happen very often when the decisive match of the tournament is also its best, but it's wonderful when it does. Whether the final is made up of established big names, first-timers, or one of each, I just hope it's a good match.
That's what I hope for the whole tournament, really. I have my own preferences about who would win, but I'd rather just watch high-level tennis, regardless of who's playing.
The majority of the favorites will move through the draw as expected, but there will be a handful of surprising upsets. There will be several spectacular matches between players of comparable skill performing at their highest levels, but there will be more matches where the winner is never in doubt and one player is simply outclassed by another. Some matches will fail to live up to their billing due to mental fatigue or physical injury in one or both players. Some of the best matches of the tournament will be ones that no one expected to turn into classics, and some of the duds will be the ones that showed the most potential.
Top players will face challenged from unexpected, lower-tier opponents who manage to play the matches of their lives. At least one mid-to-lower-level player will make a statement that he or she is aiming to rise to the next level of the game. More than one top player will not inevitably not make it as far as they are seeded to go. Even though the Australian Open is famous for getting unexpected players into the final, the players who make it to the last four on both sides will all be recognizable. Even if there are first-time semifinalists, they will be players who have been touted as having that capability.
I hope that there are a couple of matches this year that reach the levels of Nadal-Verdaso or Gasquet-Gonzalez from last year, or Federer-Tipsarevic or Baghdatis-Hewitt from the year before. It would be magnificent to have a match like Roddick-El Aynoui from way back in 2002, but not every grand slam tournament has a match for the ages during its fortnight.
I hope that not too many players are troubled by injury or fatigue, but this is always a tough slam, so I think it's likely that there will be at least eight retirements in the first two rounds of the men's and women's draws. I hope that there aren't any after the fourth round.
I hope that the final lives up to its billing. We were spoiled last year with three of the four men's grand slam finals going to five sets. The last Australian Open final to go to five was Mats Wilander and Pat Cash in 1988. It doesn't happen very often when the decisive match of the tournament is also its best, but it's wonderful when it does. Whether the final is made up of established big names, first-timers, or one of each, I just hope it's a good match.
That's what I hope for the whole tournament, really. I have my own preferences about who would win, but I'd rather just watch high-level tennis, regardless of who's playing.
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