Indian Wells Preview

Well, the qualifiers are over, and my predictions about the qualifiers were not quite the best. It just goes to show that anything can happen, and that anyone who pretends to be knowledgeable about these sorts of things really won't do that much (if any better) than chance, most of the time. That said, let's take a look at the main draw and see how far off I can be this time.

This will be a fascinating month for Roger Federer. I keep waiting for his motivation to fade, but so far he has somehow managed to maintain his unbelievable talent for what is really an unprecedented amount of time. It was thought that he might miss this tournament due a lung infection, and while it looks like he'll play right now, who knows how well he'll do once the tournament gets underway. If he does play, he won't have the easiest road ahead of him. His first match should be a breeze, but after that, things get trickier. It's likely that he'll face Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, followed by a potential match-up with Radek Stepanek. In the quarters, he might find himself playing Andy Roddick, and if he gets through that match, then he'll find the other Andy in the semis. This is, of course, that there are no major upsets along the way. It's worth noting that Federer hasn't won Indian Wells or Miami since 2006.

It should also be interesting for Roddick. He has a relatively soft section of the draw, considering his low seeding at this point. He'll likely open against Yen-Hsun Lu, who he just beat a few weeks ago. He'll probably meet Janko Tipsarevic in the next round, but his subsequent opponent will be an interesting character, no matter what. Roddick is seeded to meet Gael Monfils, but that section also features the former top ten players Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. The other seed in that section is Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, but it's tough to see him making it through those other three players. And of course, after that, Roddick gets Federer in the quarters. The top American has been struggling with some niggling injuries as of late, but let's see if skipping Davis Cup has helped his chances here. Roddick, of course, hasn't even been to a Masters Series final since 2006.

Andy Murray has a couple of tricky players in his section of the draw, but nobody prior to the quarters. He may face Igor Andreev in the third round, and if the Russian can play the way he did against Federer at the Aussie Open while Murray plays too defensive, there could be an upset. But it's a tough ask. After that, though, Murray could face either Karlovic, Ferrer, Almagro, or James Blake, all of whom could theoretically pose a problem.

The Brit's quarterfinal opponent is likely to be the winner of the only two top ten players slated to meet in the round of 16. Robin Soderling and JW Tsonga are in that section of the draw, and they're the only real contenders to be found. Feliciano Lopez played well at the Aussie Open against Roddick, but it's not enough to get him to Andy Murray.

Moving to the bottom half of the draw, we find the top ten player who I think is most likely to lose his first-round match. Nikolay Davydenko, who has been dealing with some wrist problems, will likely face Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who is riding a hot streak. Either player that Davydenko faces first could beat him, actually, as his other potential opponent is Swiss number 3 Marco Chiudinelli. Whoever wins between those three players will likely make it to the round of 16, as the other seed in that section is Viktor Troicki, who is a fine player but has faltered in the big moments throughout his career. To get the quarters, the winner will have to face either Tomas Berdych or Fernando Verdasco, and that match is basically a pick-em.

Whoever comes out of that tricky section of the draw will find another potentially random player waiting for them in the quarters, since the top seed there is also not likely to live up to his seeding. Nadal hasn't played since the Australian Open, and who knows how well he's feeling, physically. Nadal might face Mario Ancic, also back from another long injury break, in the third round. In the fourth round, though, if Nadal makes it that far, he'll face the winner of Sam Querrey and John Isner, who are unfortunate to be seeded to meet so early. Here's hoping they weren't too worn out by the trip back from Serbia, since they have a real shot at making a quarterfinal here.

In the last quarter of the draw, the players that are likely to make it to the quarters are much less in doubt. Marin Cilic will have to get through a bevy of clay-court specialists, including Carlos Moya, Tomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, and Juan Carlos Ferrero, in order to make the quarters. The wildcard in this section of the draw is Daniel "Crazycakes" Koellerer, who probably won't do anything, but I would love to see him on a show court.

Finally, the bottom section of the draw belongs to newly-minted world number 2 Novak Djokovic. He has some tough players in his section, including Gilles Simon, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Ivan Ljubicic, who nearly beat Djokovic in Doha. This section of the draw also has three strong Americans - Mardy Fish, who is fighting fit, as well as teenager Ryan Harrison and his doubles partner Taylor Dent, who are unfortunately playing each other in the first round. Still, it's tough to see Djokovic losing before the quarters.

Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to the tennis. Lots of great stories taking place, heading into the Indian Wells-Miami double feature, this year. Play starts tomorrow!

Indian Wells Quallies

Indian Wells is a strange tournament. The main draw is 96 players, which is more than any other tour event, except for the grand slams. One of the consequences of this unusual draw size is that the qualifying tournament is also pretty strange. There are 12 qualifying spots, 48 players in contention, and 24 of them are seeded. The top seed is Uzbek player Denis Istomin, while the 24th seed is American Jesse Witten. Here are my thoughts on the draw.

Istomin will have to beat two Americans to get into the main draw, and I think he'll be able to. Unless either Bobby Reynolds or Michael Yani have huge fanbases in California who are willing to help their main through a tough match in the quallies, I see the Uzbek through.

The second seed, Illya Marchenko of Ukraine, has a tougher road. He could face Donald Young in the deciding match for entry into the main draw. The "Donald" has had a pretty good year so far, and this is one of his last chances to make a splash - particularly on home soil - for a while. If he doesn't make noise here or in Miami, you can probably say goodbye to him until July.

Dustin Brown of Jamaica might face Gaston Gaudio for a spot in the tournament, which I would give to Brown on this surface. Gaudio's comeback has not been anything to write home about, thus far. But then again, I could just be hopeful, because I still want to watch Dustin Brown play a whole match.

Carsten Ball is making it through qualifying, no doubt. Somdev Devvarman has a chance, but he has a tougher road, which runs through veteran Stefan Koubek. Another veteran in the draw, Rainer Schuettler, should probably make it through.

One of the matches that I think could be interesting is the likely second round between Jesse Witten and Yen-Hsun Lu. We haven't heard much from Jesse since his close loss to Djokovic at the U.S. Open last year. Ryan Anderson is another player who hasn't done much lately, but these are his favorite courts and conditions.

There are some interesting players here, but I think that qualifying presents such a strange environment which is so different than the main draw of the tournament that almost any result can happen and not be a huge upset. We'll then have to see where these players land in the main draw, which I'll take a look at tomorrow.

Davis Cup First Round Complete

The first round of the Davis Cup for 2010 is (nearly) complete, and things went largely as expected. The favorites breezed through and most of the tight ties were tight. The only home teams to lose were Belgium, facing last year's finalists the Czech Republic, and Sweden, who fell to an Argentina that was energized almost exclusively by David Nalbandian. While his return had not been very impressive thus far, this bodes well for the next phase of his career. The Americans put up a really tough fight against the Serbians, but in the end, the red clay and the away team status kept them from making it to the next round.

Chile has not yet wrapped up its tie with Israel, but I think that Gonzalez or Massu should be able to pick up the final point tomorrow.

Now, we head back to the United States for the double Masters Series hardcourt tour. This is a ten-day tournament, so it has a weird schedule and starts on (I think) Thursday, this week. I'll take a look at the draw as soon as I see.

A few random notes - Cyprus and Bulgaria both won their ties, entirely on the play of Marcos Baghdatis and Grigor Dimitrov. Australia kicked butt, even sans Lleyton Hewitt.

Also, Mario Ancic made it to the final of a Futures tournament in Texas this week, then lost to 372nd rank Artem Sitak. Maybe it's a bit too early to call it a comeback?

Davis Cup First Round, Day 2

The first week of the Davis Cup is about to wrap up. Three of the eight matchups have already drawn to a close, and at least four of the remaining five will finish tomorrow, and I expect that the fifth one will as well.

The ones that are already done, and none of them are surprises, are Croatia over Ecuador, the Czech Republic over Belgium, and France over Germany. What may be a bit of a surprise is that neither Russia nor Serbia closed out their ties. Both the Indians and Americans fielded strong doubles teams - well, at least the Americans tried to.

Mike Bryan came down with food poisoning, which meant that the Americans' best hope of getting the doubles point was in jeopardy. Amazingly, big John Isner stepped up and replaced the ailing Bryan, and served superbly in the Americans' defeat of Zimonjic and Tipsarevic. Kudos to Isner, but he'll need to build on that confidence to have a chance in the match against Novak Djokovic, tomorrow. If he somehow manages to win, I do give the Americans of making an impossible comeback, because Querrey has a real chance against Troicki. But it's a huge ask for Isner.

India managed their doubles point against Russia, but that was really their only chance. Russia's taking this one. I expect that the coach may replace Kunitsyn with Andreev for the second singles match just to be safer, but it probably won't matter.

Switzerland has about as much chance to win both singles points tomorrow as the United States does, but it's still a chance. Don't look for a first-round upset of the defending champs this year.

Argentina-Sweden is the most interesting match-up for tomorrow. Argentina is actually up 2-1, when Nalbandian joined in for the doubles and won the point with relative ease. I'm curious to see if he'll get put in the tie for one of the reverse singles. It seems like a sure thing, but I'm not 100% on his health. This one is a toss-up.

Chile is a day behind the other matches, but it's almost certain that the tie will end tomorrow as well. Massu and Gonzalez both won in four sets. They'll team up for the doubles point tomorrow, and almost certainly will win. They're a gold-medal winning team, as you may recall.

There's still a lot of tennis to play, though, so we'll just see what happens tomorrow.