Friday, February 26, 2010

Week 8 Mid-week Update

In two of the three tournaments going on this week, the majority of the top players have been upset. Not quite what the promoters were hoping for when only three or four seeds even make it to the quarterfinals, which was the case in both Dubai and Del Ray Beach.

In Dubai, which is probably the richest non-Masters Series event on tour, Novak Djokovic was the only top 10 player to make the semifinals. He barely did, dropping the first set in his quarterfinal match-up against Ivan Ljubicic and then squeaking out the second set before bulldozing his way through the third. Ljubicic had already beaten Tsonga, who appeared to be struggling with some injury problems. Davydenko was similarly hobbled, forced to retire against Michael Berrer with a bad left wrist.

Andy Murray had lost in the second round to an inspired Janko Tipsarevic, who then couldn't put it together the next day and lost to Youzhny in straight sets. Youzhny probably was expected to face Marin Cilic, one of the hottest players on tour, but he too was felled to Jurgen Melzer, who was having a spectacular day. The final quarterfinalist is Marcos Baghdatis, who beat Berrer in the quarters.

If Djokovic wasn't still in the tournament (and if he doesn't make it to the final) the organizers and tennis fans who paid to see the top tier of the game is going to be disappointed. He really should walk away with this one, though. Youzhny, Russia's number two, is looking like he's ready for an assault on the top ten once more. Good to see him back at the top of his game. And Baghdatis, too. Both of these guys were about four places lower in the rankings a year ago, so I'm glad to see them improving.

Things are also fairly topsy-turvy in Del Ray, although in this case I imagine that the organizers are pretty happy with the surprises left in the draw. With the weather, not so much. The week has been rain-soaked and it's been difficult to get in any continuous play, but at the quarterfinal stage, there are two Americans left, and that's something. Mardy Fish and James Blake are still standing, and they'll each have tough but winnable matches tomorrow. Fish goes up against Jeremy Chardy, who is a big hitter but has been having a terrible year, and Blake takes on Ivo Karlovic.

If the weather continues to be muggy, it should slow down Karlovic's serve and give Blake a better chance of blocking some returns back, and should also give him time to wind up on his forehand. In any case, this match will feature a ton of aces for the big man, because Blake goes for as much off the return as anyone, and ends up getting aced a lot. Except for their very first meeting, Karlovic has never hit fewer than 22 aces against Blake.

The top half of the draw features a handful of players who would each be lucky to make it to the final. Ernests Gulbis beat the player who knocked out top seed Tommy Haas, Benjamin Becker got a walkover from Wayne Odesnik, Leonardo won the battle of the Mayers against Florian, and Jarkko Nieminen absolutely ran away with the match after losing the first set to Evgeny Korolev. It's a pick-em, up here. Whoever can come out on top from this four will really get a boost, both in terms of ranking and momentum.

The only place where sanity seems to have reigned is in Acapulco, where all of the semifinalists are clay-court players that you might expect to see in this situation. Juan Monaco ousted top seed Fernando Verdasco, who despite being Spanish is not the greatest clay-courter around. Ferrero continued his ridiculous run, beating twice-defending champ Nicolas Almagro. His winning streak is now 13 matches long, which is by far the longest on tour at the moment. Monaco is a tough competitor, but unless Ferrero's 30-year old body is starting to get tired, it's not easy to see him beating this Spaniard, who is right at home on clay.

The bottom half of the draw has an equally appetizing semifinal, which features David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez. It's a match-up of a big, big hitter and a big returner, so it'll be interesting to see if Gonzo can hit his spots better than Ferrer can run them down.

It's also worth noting that in Acapulco, defending champ and top seed Venus Williams recovered from from being down 5-3 in the third set against 25-year old Spanish qualifier Laura Pous Tio, who is ranked 399 in the world, to win the set and the match 7-5. Gutsy save from the elder Williams. After making it through that tough match, can she go on to defend her second title consecutively?

Monday, February 22, 2010

Week 8 Preview

First of all, kudos to Sam Querrey for successfully turning his season around, beating the two hottest Americans on tour (and the only two ranked above him) in winning his first title of the season and third overall. This was also his first title in which he beat a player ranked higher than him in the final. No shame for Isner, though, who has continued his strong season. Both of them then teamed up to win the doubles title. Not a bad run for both!

The same thing happened in Marseille, where Llodra beat the higher-ranked Benneteau and then went on to win the doubles title with his opponent, who became his partner. Shame for Benneteau, who remains titleless, but Llodra did one better than his run last year.

Also, props to Juan Carlos Ferrero, who looked like he was going to fall to David Ferrer once again, only to come back and win in three to get his second title in as many weeks. Is the former number one getting back to his top ten form? He hasn't finished a year in the top ten since 2003.

Looking ahead to the next week, the Dubai field has suffered a bit, as Nadal and Del Potro are out with injury, while Roddick and Federer also withdrew in the past few days. It's still the strongest tourney since the Australian Open, with world #2 Djokovic as the new favorite. Unfortunately for the Djoker, he has his nemesis Tsonga in his quarter, who faces last week's Marseille winner in the first round. That was Llodra, by the way.

Other first round matches of interest are Gilles Simon and Marcos Baghdatis. Simon has yet to win a match on tour this year, and this will only be his second. That's a tough one to get back on track with. In addition to four of the top ten players, there are a bevy that seem like they really ought to be in the top twenty, and could make a breakthrough here, with some of the biggest names out of the tourney.

There are some big names out of the tournament on U.S. soil this week as well. In Del Ray beach, the Americans are going to have trouble repeating the feat they had at Memphis this week. The only seeded American is slumping James Blake, ranked 55 in the world. And he faces another American, Taylor Dent, in the first round. Tommy Haas half-counts, and he's the top seed. Also worthy of note, Kei Nishikori returns to action here after more than a year off for injury. He opens against Benjamin Becker. Really, this is the weakest field of the week, so anyone could conceivably run away with the title.

The reason the field is so weak is that the two Americans who made the final in Memphis decided to run down to Mexico to play on the clay, dedicating themselves to playing their best - and maybe getting ready for the Davis Cup match against Serbia. An impressive move by both Isner and Querrey. It's particularly interesting for Querrey, who must have gotten late entry and is unseeded. He'll open against Fernando Gonzalez, in what probably amounts to the best first-round match of the week.

Another first round match of interest is Richard Gasquet against Carlos Moya, which should be a fun one to watch. Ferrer and Ferrero are both in the draw, as are Verdasco, Almagro, and Montanes. These are some of the best clay-courters on tour, so keep an eye on them for the next couple of months. After the Indian Wells-Miami double, that is.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Week 7 Finals Preview

The finals are set for this week 7, and there's going to be at least one new title-winner this year. In France, they've got an all-countrymen final, but it doesn't feature any of the top three Frenchman in the draw, including Tsonga, Monfils, and Simon. But the French crowd should be pretty happy with their final between Benneteau (the eighth seed) and Llodra, who made the final here last year. This is Benneteau's fourth singles final, and he has yet to win one. Llodra lost this final last year, but he has three to his name. His last came in Rotterdam in 2008, where he had beaten Soderling in the final. Coincidentally, Soderling was Llodra's victim in the quarters here in Marseille.

I'm surprised that these two Frenchmen, both in their late twenties, have never played each other on tour before. They played in a futures tournament ten years ago which Llodra won, but it's tough to put much stock in that. Benneteau had the harder road, facing Monfils and Tsonga, while Llodra had to face the relatively minor foe Mischa Zverev in the semis. But Benneteau is the higher-ranked player here, and has been on better form so far this year. This is largely a pick-em, and I hope it will be a good match. It's been a good week for both players, as they are both also in the doubles final, playing together. It should be interesting for them to play that right after completing the singles.

In Buenos Aires, they've got the best match-up they could have hoped for in the final, once David Nalbandian withdrew from the tournament with injury before his quarterfinal against Albert Montanes. Ferrer then steamrolled a well-rested Montanes in the semis, after beating Igor Andreev that same morning, when matches had been pushed back due to rain. Really, that's an astounding performance from Ferrer, to play two-matches in one day, the second against a very well-rested opponent, and win it 6-1, 6-1. He'll be facing Juan Carlos Ferrero, last week's winner in Costa do Sauipe. The only set dropped by either of these players was by Ferrero, inexplicably, in the quarters against Santiago Ventura. The Ferrer-Ferrero rivalry, which is my second-favorite in the sport, name-wise, after Wozniak-Wozniacki, has been pretty one-sided. Ferrer is 5-1 against the older, more experienced Spaniard. Add to that the fact that last year, Ferrer was the highest-ranked player who did not win a title, and the "Bulldog" will be eager to notch his first tour win since the Netherlands in 2008.

An all-French final, an all-Spanish final, and in Memphis, an all-American final. Sam Querrey and John Isner, the two young guns of U.S. Tennis, will be facing here for the first time. They've had very different years up to this tournament, with the tall man winning his first title and going 8-1 to get here. On the other hand, Querrey was 3-4, and is just now getting his record above 500. Querrey is recovering from a pretty terrible arm injury that ended his season last year, so it's good for him to make the final here. While he was struggling to get his year kick-started, Isner was on fire, and ultimately replaced Querrey as the number 2 American behind Andy Roddick. This should also be an interesting match, as these two players are close, and will be playing together in the final after they play against each other in the singles, just like Benneteau and Llodra. I don't know of the last time that's happened twice in the same week, but it hasn't happened recently, to the best of my knowledge.

It's also worth mentioning that Venus Williams won her first title of the year in Dubai, which was also her first successful title defense since Wimbledon in 2007-2008. She beat Victoria Azarenka in the final, and did not drop a set en route to the title. Azarenka may have been the seed that she faced, but it was still an impressive run. Sharapova also won in Memphis without dropping a set, and never even played a tiebreak. She was taken to 7-5 only once, by Elena Baltacha. It's a great way to kick-start the year for both players.

The women's final in Bogata has not yet been decided, and it doesn't feature any big-name players like Sharapova or Venus. But it does have a 20-year old Colombian player named Mariana Duque Marino who may be making her first big splash on the tour level. She's won a bundle of lower-tier ITF titles, but has yet to make much noise at the top. She faces German Angelique Kerber, who is also going for her first overall WTA title. With the home crowd's support, Marino may have the advantage over another first-time finalist. But that's why you play the tennis.