It's a shame about Denis Istomin. The guy is playing the biggest match of his life - against the number one player in the world, Rafael Nadal, on one of the biggest stages in the tennis world - night match at Arthur Ashe stadium - and he plays the best point of the tournament, possibly the best point of his whole life, to go up 5-1 in the second set tiebreak, after getting thoroughly outplayed in the point. He switches sides pumped up and thrilled. And then he doesn't win another point in the breaker, dropping the set 7-5. That's got to hurt. All in all, it was a very strong performance from the top Uzbek player (he's actually 390 places higher than the next best player from his country) and I hope he'll be encouraged by how close he got, rather than disappointed by the fact that he just fell short. He's been making steady progress since he got a wildcard into the Australian Open in 2006 and got blitzed by Roger Federer in the first round. There's no reason he shouldn't find himself seeded for these sorts of tournaments in the not-too-distant future.
Speaking of players who should be encouraged by near misses, American teen Ryan Harrison missed out on three match points against Sergiy Stakhovsky in the fifth set tiebreak. The first two were on the Ukrainian players serve, but then the American had one point on his serve and - disappointingly - he double-faulted. Really, it shouldn't be a shock. He's just eighteen, he had never played a five set match before, and he surely had never had a crowd rooting for him like this one was. The nerves just got to him. It's totally understandable - all it says is that he's not ready to compete at these stages, for these sorts of stakes, yet. It's too much, too fast, and that's fine. He'll be back - I expect by this time next year, he'll be in the top hundred (or so) and won't have to fuss about not getting a wildcard and needing to qualify. But he has the potential to be the next big thing for U.S. men's tennis - he has the game for it, and it's an excitingly different style of tennis when compared to the other young Americans, big and tall guys bombing serves like Isner and Querrey. Harrison plays fast, smart, and powerful tennis, and I think he's got a ton of upside potential for the future.
That was really the dominant storyline from today's tennis by a pretty wide margin. The only other particularly noteworthy result I can find is Gilles Simon upsetting 29th seed Phillip Kohlschreiber, but Simon is a former top-ten player who loves this surface and is just getting his act together (and apparently, he just became a father!). It was always going to be a pick-em. This was a day when the favorites reigned supreme - on Arthur Ashe stadium, the losing player didn't even win one set in five matches. On Louis Armstrong, Chiudinelli won one set against Isner, but otherwise it was also a sweep.
The only other result of note is that Julien Benneteau hurt his left wrist so badly while trying to hit a double-handed backhand that he couldn't even toss the ball up to serve, and was forced to retire from his match, in the middle of a tiebreak. I've never seen that happen before, and it appears to be rare enough that the US Open website isn't prepared for that eventuality either, and can't figure out how to show the tiebreak score properly.
There weren't even any three-set matches on the women's side, today. That was quite a change from the way the week had been going up to this point.
But that should change in the next days. The real contenders are starting to run into each other as we reach the third round in the men's draw, and get ready for the fourth round on the women's side. Without further ado, let's start looking ahead to Saturday...
The Arthur Ashe schedule is particularly mouth-watering, I have to say. Jelena Jankovic, a former finalist here, was severely troubled by her first two opponents, and things presumably won't be getting any easier against Estonian 31st-seed Kaia Kanepi. Upset watch is on high alert for this match. After that, Maria Sharapova gets an American teen, the Melanie Oudin of this year - Beatrice "Tracy" Capra. Oudin actaully ousted Sharapova in last year's US Open, but that wasn't the same Maria. I don't expect her to go out in the same set of circumstances this year, but it will be fun to see what the American can do.
Federer gets Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu, and the Fed is 4-0 against the Frenchman, but this is actually the toughest opposition that Fed has faced up to this point. Even though Mathieu is currently ranked outside the top hundred, he is the former world number 12 and a one-time top prospect for French tennis. But in four meetings, the Frenchman has only been able to win one set. I don't know how much Mathieu can muster for this one.
The night match, on the other hand, that's quite a different story. James Blake and Novak Djokovic are facing off, and the two have both played some of their best tennis at night matches in Arthur Ashe. This one could be a thriller. The best match of James's life is arguably the night match he ended up losing to Andre Agassi in 2005. He is eager to show that he's back, and that people who were sending him off into the sunset were doing so prematurely. But Djokovic, after escaping the first round in Houdini-like fashion and seeing the other top seeds in his section topple like dominoes, surely wants to remind everyone that he's still here, as well. This could be a statement match from either player. And I remember the night match Blake played against Del Potro earlier this year at the Aussie Open, and that was an absolutely brutal five-set thriller. There's no guarantee that's what we'll get tomorrow, but it's a possibility.
Speaking of forgotten contenders, after that we get former champion Svetlana Kuznetsova against Kirilenko, and that's another tough one. Could be some fireworks there, as well.
On the other courts, I'm excited about Soderling against Thiemo De Bakker - the young Dutch player is going to start making noise at some point in the future. Maybe not tomorrow, though. Mardy Fish takes on the French vet Arnaud Clement, who is still tough as nails despite being 32. Fish has been playing great, but that's a tricky opponent.
On grandstand, Monfils and Tipsarevic face off in the morning - expect some shotmaking in that match. Those guys are both really fun, exciting players to watch. I lean towards Monfils, but Tipsy played amazing ball against Roddick, and Monfils may give him just as many spinny, high-bouncing balls to take big cuts at. Melzer-Ferrero is another interesting match, as those guys are both vets, and they're playing for the dubious honor of getting Roger Federer in the next round. Who wants to lose on center court, gentlemen?
Gasquet and Nishikori are both in action as well, and while they both had stunning upsets in the last round, I wonder if they'll be able to follow it up with another win. Ryan Harrison couldn't quite pull it off, but maybe one or both of them can. I also like that Melanie Oudin and Ryan Harrison are playing mixed doubles together. Just try not to root for them, I dare you.
We're getting into the middle weekend now - Labor Day weekend, of course. A big time for the Open. Tons of fans on the grounds, juniors are getting underway, and the big-name clashes are starting to come in droves. For an Open that's already been pretty chock-full of action and surprises, it may only get more exciting from here. Or it could end up being like Wimbledon this year, which had an amazing first week but became fairly predictable in the second. Here's hoping otherwise.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Friday, September 3, 2010
US Open Day 4
As the second round of the tournament continued, the rash of upsets kept on going as well. That seems to have been the theme of this tournament, so far - at least, the story of the upsets runs parallel to the story of the incredible heat. I'm willing to bet that those two facts are related.
For example, the heat was for sure a factor in the match between Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori. It's a great match for Nishikori, who followed up his win two years ago over David Ferrer by ousting another seeded player. I don't know how well the Japanese 20-year old is going to be able to bounce back for his next match, because he must have been whipped. The match with Cilic lasted for just a shade under five hours, and in 95 degree heat, that is absolutely brutal. A tough loss for Cilic, who had a good run here last year, but has not been on his best form recently.
Another upset featured Richard Gasquet dominated Nikolay Davydenko. The Russian had looked great in his first round match, but Gasquet was playing the best tennis I've seen him play for a couple years. He was striking the ball beautifully, moving like Federer, and serving bombs. Davydenko just wasn't up for the challenge, amazingly. It'll be interesting to see if Gasquet can keep it up.
Tomaz Bellucci also lost, but he was facing big-serving South African Kevin Anderson, and that's a match that could have gone either way. Belluci lost it in a fifth-set tiebreaker, which is a situation that favors the six-foot-eight-inch player for sure. Bellucci is still maturing as a player, but he'll make a run here at some point in the future.
Ricardas Berankis, a twenty-year old from Lithuania, very nearly upset Jurgen Melzer - the former US Open junior champ was up a break in the fifth set, but he couldn't close it out, and lost it 7-5. Still, a very encouraging performance, and we haven't heard the last of him, either.
Speaking of close calls, Bethanie Mattek-Sands served for the match against Andrea Petkovic and had multiple match points, but just when she needed it, her first serve deserted her and she couldn't close it out. It was very nearly a big win, but the Americans did have something else to be excited about. Teenager Beatrice Capra upset Arevane Rezai - even though Melanie Oudin couldn't follow up last year's performance, we may have another U.S. teen breakout story for this year. Also on the women's side, Aggie Radwanska, the ninth seed, lost today to Chinese player Shuai Peng.
The other top players pretty much cruised. Wozniacki didn't even drop a game. Federer, Sharapova, Mardy Fish, Kuznetsova, Soderling, and Ferrero barely did. James Blake won too, as did Novak Djokovic. And they get to face each other in the next round! That could be a fun one. Jelena Jankovic also came through a tough match, just barely.
Tomorrow, we finish up the men's second round, and the women's third round starts off. That means that the seeds can start meeting, if they both made it that far. It happened a couple times.
The line-up on Ashe is pretty great - Dementieva plays Hantuchova, Clijsters plays Kvitova, and Andy Murray plays the exciting Jamaican Dustin Brown. I can't imagine Brown being able to do much against Murray, but it should be a fun match to watch, regardless. In the night session, Venus Williams and Rafael Nadal should have relatively easy going against their lower-ranked opponents. Istomin might be able to briefly challenge the world number one, but it would be a shocker if he even won a set.
There are three more Americans in action - Isner, Querrey, and Harrison, all of whom have winnable matches tomorrow. All three were strong in their first match, but they need to keep it up. Other matches to watch are are Ivanovic-Razzano, Schiavone-Bondarenko, and Peer-Pennetta on the women's side. On the men's side, check out Youzhny-Sela, Kohlschreiber-Simon, Ferrer-Becker, and Hanescu-Llodra. Benneteau-Robredo could be fun, too. This tournament is coming together nicely on the men's side, no question. I sort of hope that the rash of upsets takes a break tomorrow, because the third round matches we'll get on Sunday if things go by the seedings are going to be stellar. It would be a shame to spoil too many of them.
But no matter what, this is going to be a great weekend.
For example, the heat was for sure a factor in the match between Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori. It's a great match for Nishikori, who followed up his win two years ago over David Ferrer by ousting another seeded player. I don't know how well the Japanese 20-year old is going to be able to bounce back for his next match, because he must have been whipped. The match with Cilic lasted for just a shade under five hours, and in 95 degree heat, that is absolutely brutal. A tough loss for Cilic, who had a good run here last year, but has not been on his best form recently.
Another upset featured Richard Gasquet dominated Nikolay Davydenko. The Russian had looked great in his first round match, but Gasquet was playing the best tennis I've seen him play for a couple years. He was striking the ball beautifully, moving like Federer, and serving bombs. Davydenko just wasn't up for the challenge, amazingly. It'll be interesting to see if Gasquet can keep it up.
Tomaz Bellucci also lost, but he was facing big-serving South African Kevin Anderson, and that's a match that could have gone either way. Belluci lost it in a fifth-set tiebreaker, which is a situation that favors the six-foot-eight-inch player for sure. Bellucci is still maturing as a player, but he'll make a run here at some point in the future.
Ricardas Berankis, a twenty-year old from Lithuania, very nearly upset Jurgen Melzer - the former US Open junior champ was up a break in the fifth set, but he couldn't close it out, and lost it 7-5. Still, a very encouraging performance, and we haven't heard the last of him, either.
Speaking of close calls, Bethanie Mattek-Sands served for the match against Andrea Petkovic and had multiple match points, but just when she needed it, her first serve deserted her and she couldn't close it out. It was very nearly a big win, but the Americans did have something else to be excited about. Teenager Beatrice Capra upset Arevane Rezai - even though Melanie Oudin couldn't follow up last year's performance, we may have another U.S. teen breakout story for this year. Also on the women's side, Aggie Radwanska, the ninth seed, lost today to Chinese player Shuai Peng.
The other top players pretty much cruised. Wozniacki didn't even drop a game. Federer, Sharapova, Mardy Fish, Kuznetsova, Soderling, and Ferrero barely did. James Blake won too, as did Novak Djokovic. And they get to face each other in the next round! That could be a fun one. Jelena Jankovic also came through a tough match, just barely.
Tomorrow, we finish up the men's second round, and the women's third round starts off. That means that the seeds can start meeting, if they both made it that far. It happened a couple times.
The line-up on Ashe is pretty great - Dementieva plays Hantuchova, Clijsters plays Kvitova, and Andy Murray plays the exciting Jamaican Dustin Brown. I can't imagine Brown being able to do much against Murray, but it should be a fun match to watch, regardless. In the night session, Venus Williams and Rafael Nadal should have relatively easy going against their lower-ranked opponents. Istomin might be able to briefly challenge the world number one, but it would be a shocker if he even won a set.
There are three more Americans in action - Isner, Querrey, and Harrison, all of whom have winnable matches tomorrow. All three were strong in their first match, but they need to keep it up. Other matches to watch are are Ivanovic-Razzano, Schiavone-Bondarenko, and Peer-Pennetta on the women's side. On the men's side, check out Youzhny-Sela, Kohlschreiber-Simon, Ferrer-Becker, and Hanescu-Llodra. Benneteau-Robredo could be fun, too. This tournament is coming together nicely on the men's side, no question. I sort of hope that the rash of upsets takes a break tomorrow, because the third round matches we'll get on Sunday if things go by the seedings are going to be stellar. It would be a shame to spoil too many of them.
But no matter what, this is going to be a great weekend.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
US Open Day 3
Well, up until this last match of the night, this was a pretty mild third day at the U.S. Open. Whereas yesterday, there were any number of incredibly tight matches and upsets, things had mostly been going to form, until this last match of the night session. But I'll get to that in a minute.
The day started with a very strange event, as Victoria Azarenka passed out on the grandstand court, some twenty five minutes into her match. It was assumed to be heat-related, but it turned out that she had fallen during her warm-up, and was ultimately diagnosed with a minor concussion. Here's hoping that she has a swift recovery and that it isn't anything more serious.
The other top ten seed to fall was Tomas Berdych on the men's side, who was just outplayed by Michael Llodra on the grandstand. The Wimbledon finalist - and one of the favorites to go deep into this tournament - out in the first round. The last time that happened was when Roddick lost to Gilles Muller in 2005.
Speaking of Roddick, Andy played some pretty poor tennis and showed some poor sportsmanship in his loss to Janko Tipsarevic. It was a stellar show of shot-making from Janko Tipsarevic, but Roddick did everything he could to allow the Serb to hit winner after winner, giving him medium-speed, high-spin balls that just sat up and asked to be blasted down the line. Even after he got riled up after being correctly called for a foot fault (despite being informed that it was called on the wrong foot) he still wasn't getting enough pace on his shots, and Tipsarevic took full advantage. Roddick looked listless for a big chunk of that match, and it seemed like the mono may have had something to do with it. But the American said it himself, that once he decided to show up, it didn't really matter how much he had in the tank, he was going to give it his all. It certainly wasn't enough today. At 28 years old and with the younger players in the game more and more able to handle his groundstrokes, it's really a shame to essentially lose a summer to a disease like mono. And that's assuming he can come back - Mario Ancic has pretty much been out of the game for the better part of four or five years, since he first came down with it. I hate to say it, but we may be witnessing the twilight of the American's career.
On the other side of her career trajectory, Melanie Oudin also lost today, but she maybe was just feeling the pressure of trying to repeat her magical run from last year. She was clearly feeling tight - she wasn't moving her feet, and she wasn't hitting through her shots. But when she was forgetting about the pressure, she was playing some good ball. And she's still only 18-years old, so she has plenty of time to adjust to being more than a Cinderella story.
In better news for the American fans, John Isner and Sam Querrey both won today. The bigger news for that side was that 18-year old Ryan Harrison beat 15th-seeded Ivan Ljubicic in his opening round match, the first time a U.S. teen beat a top-20 player since Roddick himself did it way back in 2001. But Donald Young and Jack Sock, two heralded young U.S. players, both lost pretty convincingly. All in all, a mixed bag for the U.S. side.
The other big upset of the day was Virginia Razzano beating out Marion Bartoli, but considering everything else that was going on, it's tough to pay too much heed to this loss, since Bartoli has always been and up-and-down player.
Tomorrow, we'll continue with second-round action - some appetizing match ups on offer, including Blake-Polansky, Davydenko-Gasquet, Nishikori-Cilic, and Melzer-Berankis. I wonder if things will continue to be as tense and upset-happy as they've been so far? We're only through one round on the men's side (plus two 2nd round matches) and one and a half rounds on the women's side, and we've already lost 18 of the 64 seeds. That's almost thirty percent! Pretty brutal stuff, out there.
The day started with a very strange event, as Victoria Azarenka passed out on the grandstand court, some twenty five minutes into her match. It was assumed to be heat-related, but it turned out that she had fallen during her warm-up, and was ultimately diagnosed with a minor concussion. Here's hoping that she has a swift recovery and that it isn't anything more serious.
The other top ten seed to fall was Tomas Berdych on the men's side, who was just outplayed by Michael Llodra on the grandstand. The Wimbledon finalist - and one of the favorites to go deep into this tournament - out in the first round. The last time that happened was when Roddick lost to Gilles Muller in 2005.
Speaking of Roddick, Andy played some pretty poor tennis and showed some poor sportsmanship in his loss to Janko Tipsarevic. It was a stellar show of shot-making from Janko Tipsarevic, but Roddick did everything he could to allow the Serb to hit winner after winner, giving him medium-speed, high-spin balls that just sat up and asked to be blasted down the line. Even after he got riled up after being correctly called for a foot fault (despite being informed that it was called on the wrong foot) he still wasn't getting enough pace on his shots, and Tipsarevic took full advantage. Roddick looked listless for a big chunk of that match, and it seemed like the mono may have had something to do with it. But the American said it himself, that once he decided to show up, it didn't really matter how much he had in the tank, he was going to give it his all. It certainly wasn't enough today. At 28 years old and with the younger players in the game more and more able to handle his groundstrokes, it's really a shame to essentially lose a summer to a disease like mono. And that's assuming he can come back - Mario Ancic has pretty much been out of the game for the better part of four or five years, since he first came down with it. I hate to say it, but we may be witnessing the twilight of the American's career.
On the other side of her career trajectory, Melanie Oudin also lost today, but she maybe was just feeling the pressure of trying to repeat her magical run from last year. She was clearly feeling tight - she wasn't moving her feet, and she wasn't hitting through her shots. But when she was forgetting about the pressure, she was playing some good ball. And she's still only 18-years old, so she has plenty of time to adjust to being more than a Cinderella story.
In better news for the American fans, John Isner and Sam Querrey both won today. The bigger news for that side was that 18-year old Ryan Harrison beat 15th-seeded Ivan Ljubicic in his opening round match, the first time a U.S. teen beat a top-20 player since Roddick himself did it way back in 2001. But Donald Young and Jack Sock, two heralded young U.S. players, both lost pretty convincingly. All in all, a mixed bag for the U.S. side.
The other big upset of the day was Virginia Razzano beating out Marion Bartoli, but considering everything else that was going on, it's tough to pay too much heed to this loss, since Bartoli has always been and up-and-down player.
Tomorrow, we'll continue with second-round action - some appetizing match ups on offer, including Blake-Polansky, Davydenko-Gasquet, Nishikori-Cilic, and Melzer-Berankis. I wonder if things will continue to be as tense and upset-happy as they've been so far? We're only through one round on the men's side (plus two 2nd round matches) and one and a half rounds on the women's side, and we've already lost 18 of the 64 seeds. That's almost thirty percent! Pretty brutal stuff, out there.
US Open Day 2
Day 2 was completely, even weirdly packed with tight matches and upsets. We're still in the first round, here! It's expected that people should be cruising through their matches, as often as not. Well, that wasn't really the case today. I can go through pretty much every court and talk about at least one big upset or near miss.
On the main stage, the day session went about as long as it could have. Jelena Jankovic nearly lost to Romanian teen Simona Halep, who actually served for the match in the third set, but couldn't close it out. After that, Djokovic was down two sets to one, and a break in the fourth set, while clearly hurting from the heat. The sun started to set, the court cooled down, and Djokovic somehow managed to pull that match out in five. And then Jarmila Groth took the first set from Sharapova with some hard-hitting tennis before the former champ managed to come through. There were stretches where all of those players, who are contenders to go deep this fortnight, looked like they were down for the count.
The top seeds, who made up the night matches on Ashe, were never in quite the same dire straits. Nadal won in three sets against Teymuraz "Tsunami" Gabashvili, but the Russian held his own for about 30 games, which is no small accomplishment. But for a couple missed shots in the tiebreaks, that could have been a completely different match. Caroline Wozniacki breezed past her opponent, the current NCAA champ who has never played a pro match. Despite the fact that they're the same age, the gap in experience was vast.
Louis Armstrong had a trio of seeded players upset, shockingly. Marcos Baghdatis, who had a great summer and nearly won the U.S. Open series, fell in the fifth set to French vet Arnaud Clement. Disappointing for Marcos, who has never had a good tournament in New York. I find that odd, since the conditions aren't that much different than the Australian, where he made the final. After his loss, one of the flying Bondarenko sisters upset Na Li, the first of the top ten seeds to fall on either side. She was clearly troubled by the heat, which was the deciding factor in a lot of today's matches. Blake and Zvonareva both won, but then Nadia Petrova lost to the German Petkovic in a third-set tiebreak. Petrova's section of the draw is not especially strong, and I had her getting through to the quarters, so that was not a strong performance.
The Grandstand managed to avoid any actual upsets, but the first three matches were all damn close. Kuznetsova needed three sets to get past 39-year old Kimiko Date Krumm. After that, Mardy Fish has a bizarrely topsy-turvy match in which he needed five sets to win, but in the three sets he won, he dropped only a single game. And then Fabio Fognini nearly repeated his upset of Fernando Verdasco (the Italian won at Wimbledon in the first round) but Hot Sauce was too strong, getting past Fognini 6-3 in the fifth set. The less said about Coco Vandeweghe's subsequent one and love drubbing by Lisicki, the better.
The outside courts were maybe not quite as exciting as the main show courts, but they still had more than their fair share of shockers. Mirjana Lucic beat Alicia Molik, and while they're both veterans, Lucic has essentially been out of the top level of competition for seven years. Any win from here is an upset, but it's good to have her back. Tamira Paszek beat Lucie Safarova, and Peter Polansky beat Juan Monaco. David Nalbandian nearly went down the same way that Baghdatis did, but the Argentine managed to get past Rik De Voest in five sets. He probably could have won in four, if not for a net cord winner on set point during the tiebreak. Good for him for recovering from that setback.
On lucky court 13, two seeded players fell. Jeremy Chardy beat Ernests Gulbis, who was hating the temperature and playing in the heat of the early afternoon. If he can either find a way to beat the heat or get a favorable weather report during his two weeks here, he can do well at this tournament. As it stands, he was winless in the grand slams this year. On the plus side, there's no where to go but up. Radek Stepanek also lost on court 13, but considering his injuries of late and the quality of his first round opponent, I was not particularly surprised by this result.
Way out on court 15, Lourdes Dominguez Lino upset 30th seed Yaroslav Shvedova. I know what you're thinking - Shvedova really got a seed? Still, it's an upset. That's ten seeds out in the first round, and it's not even quite done yet! Pretty brutal, if you ask me.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we'll conclude the first round on the men's side, and get the ball rolling on the second round. We have yet to see Andy Murray, Sam Querrey, John Isner, Almagro, or Wawrinka. They're all in action tomorrow, in addition to a trio of young Americans who each have a shot at an upset.
Jack Sock takes on Marco Chiudinelli - he's the least experienced of the three American young guns, but he also has the easiest opponent, arguably. I don't know enough about Sock's game to know if he's got a chance, which makes me think it's not terribly likely. Ryan Harrison gets Ivan Ljubicic, which is a pretty brutal first round draw, but we haven't heard much Ivan since he won the first hard-court Masters event earlier this year. It's a battle of youthful vim and vigor against age and experience. It would be a big upset for Harrison, no doubt. But he's got a shot. The most anticipated of these matches is going to be Donald Young against Gilles Simon, which is another tough one. Simon is a former top ten player who's hoping to get back to his former heights, and Young has yet to live up to his potential. This one could go either way, depending on which Simon shows up, and how Young can deal with the pressure. He's not getting any younger.
If you're looking for fun matches, check out Sela-Malisse on court 7, and definitely go to see Dustin Brown open the day on court 8. He's a ton of fun to watch, and he can play some great ball. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen that often and when it does it doesn't last for very long, but it's great to see if you can catch it. He's a tremendously fun player who I hope develops some much-needed consistency in the coming years. Also, watch for Stakhovsky-Luczak tomorrow. Stakhovsky is another player who needs to average out his performance from day to day. He won a tournament last week, but he did that the week before Wimbledon as well, and he lost in the first round there. In fact, he's only won a single Grand Slam match in his entire career.
Tomorrow's night matches are pretty exciting, as they feature Kim Clijsters and Andy Roddick. Clijsters goes up against Australian teen Sally Peers, while Roddick gets the significantly more formidable challenge of facing Janko Tipsarevic, who bested him at Wimbledon in 2008 and pushed Federer to five sets at the Australian Open that year. Tipsy is a legitimate threat, particularly if Roddick is not feeling completely fresh. The conditions of a night match should suit Roddick, for this sort of a contest. It will be the first of many tests that the top American will have to pass if he hopes to make a run this year, considering how brutal he may find his section of the draw. Here's hoping it's a good one!
On the main stage, the day session went about as long as it could have. Jelena Jankovic nearly lost to Romanian teen Simona Halep, who actually served for the match in the third set, but couldn't close it out. After that, Djokovic was down two sets to one, and a break in the fourth set, while clearly hurting from the heat. The sun started to set, the court cooled down, and Djokovic somehow managed to pull that match out in five. And then Jarmila Groth took the first set from Sharapova with some hard-hitting tennis before the former champ managed to come through. There were stretches where all of those players, who are contenders to go deep this fortnight, looked like they were down for the count.
The top seeds, who made up the night matches on Ashe, were never in quite the same dire straits. Nadal won in three sets against Teymuraz "Tsunami" Gabashvili, but the Russian held his own for about 30 games, which is no small accomplishment. But for a couple missed shots in the tiebreaks, that could have been a completely different match. Caroline Wozniacki breezed past her opponent, the current NCAA champ who has never played a pro match. Despite the fact that they're the same age, the gap in experience was vast.
Louis Armstrong had a trio of seeded players upset, shockingly. Marcos Baghdatis, who had a great summer and nearly won the U.S. Open series, fell in the fifth set to French vet Arnaud Clement. Disappointing for Marcos, who has never had a good tournament in New York. I find that odd, since the conditions aren't that much different than the Australian, where he made the final. After his loss, one of the flying Bondarenko sisters upset Na Li, the first of the top ten seeds to fall on either side. She was clearly troubled by the heat, which was the deciding factor in a lot of today's matches. Blake and Zvonareva both won, but then Nadia Petrova lost to the German Petkovic in a third-set tiebreak. Petrova's section of the draw is not especially strong, and I had her getting through to the quarters, so that was not a strong performance.
The Grandstand managed to avoid any actual upsets, but the first three matches were all damn close. Kuznetsova needed three sets to get past 39-year old Kimiko Date Krumm. After that, Mardy Fish has a bizarrely topsy-turvy match in which he needed five sets to win, but in the three sets he won, he dropped only a single game. And then Fabio Fognini nearly repeated his upset of Fernando Verdasco (the Italian won at Wimbledon in the first round) but Hot Sauce was too strong, getting past Fognini 6-3 in the fifth set. The less said about Coco Vandeweghe's subsequent one and love drubbing by Lisicki, the better.
The outside courts were maybe not quite as exciting as the main show courts, but they still had more than their fair share of shockers. Mirjana Lucic beat Alicia Molik, and while they're both veterans, Lucic has essentially been out of the top level of competition for seven years. Any win from here is an upset, but it's good to have her back. Tamira Paszek beat Lucie Safarova, and Peter Polansky beat Juan Monaco. David Nalbandian nearly went down the same way that Baghdatis did, but the Argentine managed to get past Rik De Voest in five sets. He probably could have won in four, if not for a net cord winner on set point during the tiebreak. Good for him for recovering from that setback.
On lucky court 13, two seeded players fell. Jeremy Chardy beat Ernests Gulbis, who was hating the temperature and playing in the heat of the early afternoon. If he can either find a way to beat the heat or get a favorable weather report during his two weeks here, he can do well at this tournament. As it stands, he was winless in the grand slams this year. On the plus side, there's no where to go but up. Radek Stepanek also lost on court 13, but considering his injuries of late and the quality of his first round opponent, I was not particularly surprised by this result.
Way out on court 15, Lourdes Dominguez Lino upset 30th seed Yaroslav Shvedova. I know what you're thinking - Shvedova really got a seed? Still, it's an upset. That's ten seeds out in the first round, and it's not even quite done yet! Pretty brutal, if you ask me.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we'll conclude the first round on the men's side, and get the ball rolling on the second round. We have yet to see Andy Murray, Sam Querrey, John Isner, Almagro, or Wawrinka. They're all in action tomorrow, in addition to a trio of young Americans who each have a shot at an upset.
Jack Sock takes on Marco Chiudinelli - he's the least experienced of the three American young guns, but he also has the easiest opponent, arguably. I don't know enough about Sock's game to know if he's got a chance, which makes me think it's not terribly likely. Ryan Harrison gets Ivan Ljubicic, which is a pretty brutal first round draw, but we haven't heard much Ivan since he won the first hard-court Masters event earlier this year. It's a battle of youthful vim and vigor against age and experience. It would be a big upset for Harrison, no doubt. But he's got a shot. The most anticipated of these matches is going to be Donald Young against Gilles Simon, which is another tough one. Simon is a former top ten player who's hoping to get back to his former heights, and Young has yet to live up to his potential. This one could go either way, depending on which Simon shows up, and how Young can deal with the pressure. He's not getting any younger.
If you're looking for fun matches, check out Sela-Malisse on court 7, and definitely go to see Dustin Brown open the day on court 8. He's a ton of fun to watch, and he can play some great ball. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen that often and when it does it doesn't last for very long, but it's great to see if you can catch it. He's a tremendously fun player who I hope develops some much-needed consistency in the coming years. Also, watch for Stakhovsky-Luczak tomorrow. Stakhovsky is another player who needs to average out his performance from day to day. He won a tournament last week, but he did that the week before Wimbledon as well, and he lost in the first round there. In fact, he's only won a single Grand Slam match in his entire career.
Tomorrow's night matches are pretty exciting, as they feature Kim Clijsters and Andy Roddick. Clijsters goes up against Australian teen Sally Peers, while Roddick gets the significantly more formidable challenge of facing Janko Tipsarevic, who bested him at Wimbledon in 2008 and pushed Federer to five sets at the Australian Open that year. Tipsy is a legitimate threat, particularly if Roddick is not feeling completely fresh. The conditions of a night match should suit Roddick, for this sort of a contest. It will be the first of many tests that the top American will have to pass if he hopes to make a run this year, considering how brutal he may find his section of the draw. Here's hoping it's a good one!
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
US Open Day 1
The first day of tennis at Flushing Meadows was a fine way to start us off - lots of exciting tennis, but not a lot of upsets to write home about. On both the men's and women's side, there were only a pair of upsets, both male vets who couldn't make it to the second round. Fernando Gonzalez had to retire against Brian Dabul, and while Lleyton Hewitt didn't actually throw in the towel, he surely faded pretty severely in the final set against Paul-Henri Mathieu. It's the first time that Hewitt's lost in the first round of a Grand Slam tournament since Wimbledon in 2003, when he fell to Ivo Karlovic as the defending champion.
Aside from that, the most notable loss of the day was last year's top seed on the women's side, Dinara Safina, who fought hard but couldn't quite hold it together against Daniela Hantuchova. Despite her disappointing performance here, I see promising signs in her game of late. She may never again ascend to the heights she was at last year at this time, but I can easily see her making it back into the top twenty, maybe ten.
Melanie Oudin really played well in her opening round, which was admittedly against a player of even less experience, but still, with all the pressure she had, I wasn't sure she could handle it. Credit to the teen. The other top players mostly cruised against undistinguished opponents, except for Robin Soderling, who was pushed hard by Austrian qualifier Andreas Haider-Maurer (I know, 'who?') into a fifth set. But his experience saw him through in the end. Gael Monfils also needed a fifth set to beat American vet Robbie Kendrick. There was a questionable call in that match, but it didn't quite turn the tide in the end - the fact that Kendrick thought it went against him was what brought him down, in my opinion. The other two five setters of the day saw Jurgen Melzer get past Dmitry Tursunov (still hoping for his comeback!) and Albert Montanes over Przynsiezny, 6-0 in the fifth.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we'll see Djokovic, Jankovic, Sharapova, Nadal and Wozniacki on Arthur Ashe. Not a bad line-up - there's an outside chance that Gabashvili could trouble Nadal, maybe a 20% chance of a close match. Djokovic-Troicki could be tight, but I don't give the junior Serb much of a chance of upsetting his countryman. Really, the matches on Armstrong and the Grandstand are much more exciting.
Baghdatis plays Clement, a French vet who has played some amazing matches of his career, but it's been a while since he's made much noise. Kateryna Bondarenko plays Na Li after that, followed by James Blake against Kristof Vliegen. Blake's going to have a ton of support, but that may not be enough for him. He seems like he's not fully recovered from his surgery, and he needs to be in top form considering his style of play. I hope he can win a couple of rounds, but it will be tough. Fish should have a better time with Jan Hajek, and Svetlana Kuznetsova should be able to handle the tricky Japanese player Kimiko Date Krumm.
On the outside courts, there are some intriguing match-ups. This is Robbie Ginepri's favorite tournament, and he has a good chance against Argentine Eduardo Schwank. On court 7, watch for a potential (though unlikely) upset as Dolgopolov plays Ferrer. He's got a chance, but whether or not he wins tomorrow's match, you'll hear more from Dolgopolov in the future. Also, put an upset watch on Peter Polansky over Juan Monaco, and Julien Benneteau over Radek Stepanek.
I don't necessarily see another upset on Court 13, but the first match could be a cracker, between French Jeremy Chardy and Ernests Gulbis. I lean towards the seeded Latvian, but there could be an upset in the cards if Gulbis isn't at his best, because he can easily get frustrated and go off the boil.
There are certainly plenty of fun matches to keep an eye on tomorrow.
Aside from that, the most notable loss of the day was last year's top seed on the women's side, Dinara Safina, who fought hard but couldn't quite hold it together against Daniela Hantuchova. Despite her disappointing performance here, I see promising signs in her game of late. She may never again ascend to the heights she was at last year at this time, but I can easily see her making it back into the top twenty, maybe ten.
Melanie Oudin really played well in her opening round, which was admittedly against a player of even less experience, but still, with all the pressure she had, I wasn't sure she could handle it. Credit to the teen. The other top players mostly cruised against undistinguished opponents, except for Robin Soderling, who was pushed hard by Austrian qualifier Andreas Haider-Maurer (I know, 'who?') into a fifth set. But his experience saw him through in the end. Gael Monfils also needed a fifth set to beat American vet Robbie Kendrick. There was a questionable call in that match, but it didn't quite turn the tide in the end - the fact that Kendrick thought it went against him was what brought him down, in my opinion. The other two five setters of the day saw Jurgen Melzer get past Dmitry Tursunov (still hoping for his comeback!) and Albert Montanes over Przynsiezny, 6-0 in the fifth.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we'll see Djokovic, Jankovic, Sharapova, Nadal and Wozniacki on Arthur Ashe. Not a bad line-up - there's an outside chance that Gabashvili could trouble Nadal, maybe a 20% chance of a close match. Djokovic-Troicki could be tight, but I don't give the junior Serb much of a chance of upsetting his countryman. Really, the matches on Armstrong and the Grandstand are much more exciting.
Baghdatis plays Clement, a French vet who has played some amazing matches of his career, but it's been a while since he's made much noise. Kateryna Bondarenko plays Na Li after that, followed by James Blake against Kristof Vliegen. Blake's going to have a ton of support, but that may not be enough for him. He seems like he's not fully recovered from his surgery, and he needs to be in top form considering his style of play. I hope he can win a couple of rounds, but it will be tough. Fish should have a better time with Jan Hajek, and Svetlana Kuznetsova should be able to handle the tricky Japanese player Kimiko Date Krumm.
On the outside courts, there are some intriguing match-ups. This is Robbie Ginepri's favorite tournament, and he has a good chance against Argentine Eduardo Schwank. On court 7, watch for a potential (though unlikely) upset as Dolgopolov plays Ferrer. He's got a chance, but whether or not he wins tomorrow's match, you'll hear more from Dolgopolov in the future. Also, put an upset watch on Peter Polansky over Juan Monaco, and Julien Benneteau over Radek Stepanek.
I don't necessarily see another upset on Court 13, but the first match could be a cracker, between French Jeremy Chardy and Ernests Gulbis. I lean towards the seeded Latvian, but there could be an upset in the cards if Gulbis isn't at his best, because he can easily get frustrated and go off the boil.
There are certainly plenty of fun matches to keep an eye on tomorrow.
Monday, August 30, 2010
US Open Men's Draw Preview
Okay, and now for my look at the USO Men's draw. I'm the first to admit that I have more knowledge of tennis on the men's side, so I can look at the draw with more granular attention than I did on the women's side. Let me take a look at each eighth of the draw, to see the interesting match-ups and storylines to watch for over the next two weeks.
The top seed is Rafael Nadal, on a two-Grand Slam winning streak, and the undisputed number one in the world. However, Nadal has never made it past the semifinals here, and in all honesty, I don't think he will this time around, either. His draw is absolutely brutal. He opens against Teymuraz Gabashvili, and while that should be an easy match-up, it will all depend on how Nadal plays. If Nadal doesn't play aggressive and is satisfied with a lot of top-spin from behind the baseline, Gabashvili will eat that up. That was exactly how Roddick played him at the French Open, and the Russian demolished the high-bouncing, high-topspin groundstrokes with a vengeance. But I'll assume he gets past that match, and then potentially gets Uzbek Denis Istomin in the second round. The New Haven finalist may actually be Nadal's easiest opponent. Because after that, he could get Gilles Simon, who has beaten Rafa before. After that, he might get Feliciano Lopez or Ivan Ljubicic, both of whom have beaten him this year. He could also find himself facing Stakhovsky or Harrison, two untested but talented young players. And that's just to get to the quarterfinals! For Nadal to make smooth progress, the players who have the weapons to beat him are going to have to get beaten - if Kohlschreiber is his third round opponent, that works in the Spaniard's favor. I do think he'll make it through, but he could be tired enough by that point to fade just as the tournament enters its toughest stage. In this section, watch for Stakhovsky, who is unbelievably streaky, but has only won one match at a Grand Slam in his whole career, as well as U.S. teen Ryan Harrison, who opens against Ljubicic in one of the best 1st rounds of the tourney. Gilles Simon also gets Donald Young in the opener, and while I favor the Frenchman, the young Young could pull that off.
Pretty much no matter what, Nadal's opponent in the quarters is going to be somebody who can handle him on this surface. I see four players who have the potential to make it out of this part of the draw - the two top seeds are also Spaniards who do well on hard courts, Fernando Verdasco and David Ferrer, who actually beat Nadal here three years ago. Verdasco, of course, played Nadal brutally tight at the Aussie Open in 2009. The other two seeds might even be tougher, though. The Argentine vet David Nalbandian still has the potential to play like a world-beater, and this is his first slam since his comeback. He's a former semifinalist here, and he could be the one who Nadal finds facing him in the quarters - that's bad news for Nadal, who has had trouble with Nalby in the past, despite their even head-to-head, both of Nadal's wins were scraped out by small margins, and Nalby ran away with both of his matches. The real wildcard here is the young Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who won his first tournament in the spring, had an amazing clay court run, and then was injured and essentially missed the French and Wimbledon. But he is so good that he could beat Nadal here. Other than those four guys, there aren't a lot of other guys to watch - but you may want to keep an eye on Dolgopolov and Chardy, who open against Ferrer and Gulbis. Beyond that, I like Jarkko Nieminen, but it's hard to think that his best days aren't behind him.
The next sectino of the draw belongs to Andy Murray, but it could be a tough run for him. This is his favorite tournament and the one he'd most want to win, but he'll have to get through some tough contenders to do it this year. His first couple rounds are cake - Dustin Brown is fun and flashy, but I don't see him troubling Andy. After that, though, things get tricky. His third round opponent will probably be Wawrinka, who has a new coach (Peter Lundgren) and has beaten Murray three times - and their last match at Wimbledon was a real nail-biter. After that, the Scot will probably get either Nicolas Almagro or Sam Querrey, both of whom are big-hitters who can trouble Andy if he gets too defensive. Sam even beat Murray earlier this year, and is just aching for a big win at a grand slam. I still like Murray's chances of making the quarters, but his road is going to be tough.
If Murray makes it to the quarters, though, I definitely like him finding his way through to the semis. The bottom eighth of the top half of the draw is not that strong, honestly. Two of the seeds may be hobbled by injury - Radek Stepanek just came off a long injury hiatus, and Isner rolled his ankle a couple of weeks ago. Youzhny is a former semifinalist here, but since then hasn't made it past the second round, and he has a killer opening round against Kazakh Andrey Golubev. Tomas Berdych is the only real contender in this section, and he might still be hung over from his Wimbledon final loss. He's got a tough first round against Michael Llodra, too. Keep an eye on the Sela-Malisse match, as well, and see how well 17-year old Jack Sock can do against Marco Chiudinelli. I don't expect much, but if he can pull off a win, there may be more to his future than I had thought. I like Berdych getting through here, but a surprise quarterfinalist is probably just as likely.
The next section of the draw is by seeding Davydenko's, but it's really Roddick's. The Russian, despite playing brilliant tennis at the end of last year, hasn't really gotten his mojo back, and Roddick has a very strong record against him. Assuming that Roddick is really recovered from the mono he had - because if that's the case, all bets are off. Davydenko has a tough opener against American Michael Russell, and then he might get Richard Gasquet, followed by either Kevin Anderson or Thomaz Bellucci? That's just brutal. As for Roddick, I like his chances, even though his opponents could line up as a rogue's gallery of his past vanquishers - after an easy first round, he might get Tipsarevic, who beat him at Wimbledon in 2008, one of his career's lowest points (until this year...), and then Monfils, who beat him at the French Open in 2009, and then Gasquet, who beat him at Wimbledon in 2006. But honestly, none of these guys have been in top form recently. The biggest challenge for Roddick might be if he got South African Kevin Anderson in the round of 16, since he's the same type of player as John Isner, who beat him here last year. In any case, I like Roddick making the quarters, as long as he's healthy. Watch Tipsarevic's match against Olivier Rochus in the first round, as well as Anderson against Somdev Devvaramn. Both of those could be fun outside court viewing.
The next quarter of the draw is for the chance of (probably) playing Roddick in the quarterfinals, and I have to think that Roddick is thrilled to see Djokovic there. Except for an ugly match here in 2008, Roddick has pretty much dominated Djokovic in these conditions - that is, hot hardcourt quarterfinals. Of course, it's no guarantee that Djoker will get that far, because he has a tough section. After an opening match against compatriot Viktor Troicki, things get a bit easier for the Serb in the second round. But the third round might get tougher - James Blake is hoping to get back on his feet after a disappointing year, and he loves this tournament. I think Blake can get that far, but he would have to find some of the old magic to even come closer to beating Djokovic. The real danger comes from the other two seeds in the draw, a pair of great guys who are both experiencing career renaissances - Fish and Baghdatis. They started off the year playing great matches back to back in Sydney and Brisbane, and I would be shocked if they don't meet again in the third round. The other players in that little part of the draw who could make noise might be Ginepri and Clement, but I don't think so. Djokovic will get the winner of that match, and either way there could be an upset in the cards.
Moving on to Soderling's section of the draw - and it really is the Swede's section, since he doesn't have a lot of competition. Really, this is probably the weakest quarter of the draw. So Soderling could get Marin Cilic, who has been underperforming ever since making the Aussie Open semis, and Fernando Gonzalez, who is just back from an injury layoff and has only played one match since the French Open, or Albert Montanes, who has had 82% of his career match wins on clay. There are some floaters in this section, but nobody has proven themselves yet - somebody would have to go on a groundbreaking run. Taylor Dent is here, but his comeback has not quite been going to plan, and he got smoked by the Swede earlier this year at Roland Garros. Thiemo De Bakker is an interesting player to keep an eye on, but this isn't his favorite surface, yet. There are three young guns who I think have a very good chance of getting a couple wins - Carsten Ball, Milos Raonic (who play each other in the first round), and Kei Nishikori. The young Japanese player actually has a shot at upsetting Cilic, if he plays as well as he's capable. In any case, it won't matter, because Soderling's going to make the quarterfinals...
... where he's going to find Roger Federer. The final section of the draw is going to be a walk through the park for Fed, at least through to the quarters. This is despite having to potentially get through a pair of former world number ones. Fed's first two rounds are barely worth mentioning, and if he loses a set to either Dabul, Beck, or Berrer, then we'll really have to worry. After that, he could get Lleyton Hewitt, who may have beaten him recently in Halle, but that was something of a fluke - a weird letdown from the Fed, which we won't see here in the U.S. Open. And after that, he might get JC Ferrero, who (can you believe this?) is the only person in the draw who has a win against Federer at the U.S. Open. The other players who have done so are Andre Agassi, Max Mirnyi, and Juan Martin Del Potro. But Ferrero is not at his best on hardcourts anymore, and if he even makes it to Federer, he'll get smoked. Fed's through to a quarterfinal match-up with Soderling, which will at least be interesting. The other players to watch in this section are Jurgen Melzer and his first round opponent, Dmitry Tursunov, as well as Lithuanian teen and former junior champ Ricardas Berankis. But let's not kid ourselves, this section is all about Federer...
As for tomorrow's matches, it will be good to see what kind of form Federer and Roddick are in, but don't expect many upsets. Hewitt has a potentially tough match against PH Mathieu, but I still like Rusty in that one. Taylor Dent will be thrilled to be back on the grandstand, the site of one of his career's best wins last year against Ivan Navarro. Berankis plays Ryan Sweeting, and that could be an interesting match, and so could Melzer-Tursunov. Dmitry is an hilarious guy, and I hope to see him back in the tennis conversation, as he's been out for a while with injury. Look at Monfils-Kendrick, as well, and two young guns facing off on Court 13, Nishikori against Korolev.
There's lots of great tennis set to take place over the next fourteen days, and I am absolutely salivating at the prospect of it.
The top seed is Rafael Nadal, on a two-Grand Slam winning streak, and the undisputed number one in the world. However, Nadal has never made it past the semifinals here, and in all honesty, I don't think he will this time around, either. His draw is absolutely brutal. He opens against Teymuraz Gabashvili, and while that should be an easy match-up, it will all depend on how Nadal plays. If Nadal doesn't play aggressive and is satisfied with a lot of top-spin from behind the baseline, Gabashvili will eat that up. That was exactly how Roddick played him at the French Open, and the Russian demolished the high-bouncing, high-topspin groundstrokes with a vengeance. But I'll assume he gets past that match, and then potentially gets Uzbek Denis Istomin in the second round. The New Haven finalist may actually be Nadal's easiest opponent. Because after that, he could get Gilles Simon, who has beaten Rafa before. After that, he might get Feliciano Lopez or Ivan Ljubicic, both of whom have beaten him this year. He could also find himself facing Stakhovsky or Harrison, two untested but talented young players. And that's just to get to the quarterfinals! For Nadal to make smooth progress, the players who have the weapons to beat him are going to have to get beaten - if Kohlschreiber is his third round opponent, that works in the Spaniard's favor. I do think he'll make it through, but he could be tired enough by that point to fade just as the tournament enters its toughest stage. In this section, watch for Stakhovsky, who is unbelievably streaky, but has only won one match at a Grand Slam in his whole career, as well as U.S. teen Ryan Harrison, who opens against Ljubicic in one of the best 1st rounds of the tourney. Gilles Simon also gets Donald Young in the opener, and while I favor the Frenchman, the young Young could pull that off.
Pretty much no matter what, Nadal's opponent in the quarters is going to be somebody who can handle him on this surface. I see four players who have the potential to make it out of this part of the draw - the two top seeds are also Spaniards who do well on hard courts, Fernando Verdasco and David Ferrer, who actually beat Nadal here three years ago. Verdasco, of course, played Nadal brutally tight at the Aussie Open in 2009. The other two seeds might even be tougher, though. The Argentine vet David Nalbandian still has the potential to play like a world-beater, and this is his first slam since his comeback. He's a former semifinalist here, and he could be the one who Nadal finds facing him in the quarters - that's bad news for Nadal, who has had trouble with Nalby in the past, despite their even head-to-head, both of Nadal's wins were scraped out by small margins, and Nalby ran away with both of his matches. The real wildcard here is the young Latvian Ernests Gulbis, who won his first tournament in the spring, had an amazing clay court run, and then was injured and essentially missed the French and Wimbledon. But he is so good that he could beat Nadal here. Other than those four guys, there aren't a lot of other guys to watch - but you may want to keep an eye on Dolgopolov and Chardy, who open against Ferrer and Gulbis. Beyond that, I like Jarkko Nieminen, but it's hard to think that his best days aren't behind him.
The next sectino of the draw belongs to Andy Murray, but it could be a tough run for him. This is his favorite tournament and the one he'd most want to win, but he'll have to get through some tough contenders to do it this year. His first couple rounds are cake - Dustin Brown is fun and flashy, but I don't see him troubling Andy. After that, though, things get tricky. His third round opponent will probably be Wawrinka, who has a new coach (Peter Lundgren) and has beaten Murray three times - and their last match at Wimbledon was a real nail-biter. After that, the Scot will probably get either Nicolas Almagro or Sam Querrey, both of whom are big-hitters who can trouble Andy if he gets too defensive. Sam even beat Murray earlier this year, and is just aching for a big win at a grand slam. I still like Murray's chances of making the quarters, but his road is going to be tough.
If Murray makes it to the quarters, though, I definitely like him finding his way through to the semis. The bottom eighth of the top half of the draw is not that strong, honestly. Two of the seeds may be hobbled by injury - Radek Stepanek just came off a long injury hiatus, and Isner rolled his ankle a couple of weeks ago. Youzhny is a former semifinalist here, but since then hasn't made it past the second round, and he has a killer opening round against Kazakh Andrey Golubev. Tomas Berdych is the only real contender in this section, and he might still be hung over from his Wimbledon final loss. He's got a tough first round against Michael Llodra, too. Keep an eye on the Sela-Malisse match, as well, and see how well 17-year old Jack Sock can do against Marco Chiudinelli. I don't expect much, but if he can pull off a win, there may be more to his future than I had thought. I like Berdych getting through here, but a surprise quarterfinalist is probably just as likely.
The next section of the draw is by seeding Davydenko's, but it's really Roddick's. The Russian, despite playing brilliant tennis at the end of last year, hasn't really gotten his mojo back, and Roddick has a very strong record against him. Assuming that Roddick is really recovered from the mono he had - because if that's the case, all bets are off. Davydenko has a tough opener against American Michael Russell, and then he might get Richard Gasquet, followed by either Kevin Anderson or Thomaz Bellucci? That's just brutal. As for Roddick, I like his chances, even though his opponents could line up as a rogue's gallery of his past vanquishers - after an easy first round, he might get Tipsarevic, who beat him at Wimbledon in 2008, one of his career's lowest points (until this year...), and then Monfils, who beat him at the French Open in 2009, and then Gasquet, who beat him at Wimbledon in 2006. But honestly, none of these guys have been in top form recently. The biggest challenge for Roddick might be if he got South African Kevin Anderson in the round of 16, since he's the same type of player as John Isner, who beat him here last year. In any case, I like Roddick making the quarters, as long as he's healthy. Watch Tipsarevic's match against Olivier Rochus in the first round, as well as Anderson against Somdev Devvaramn. Both of those could be fun outside court viewing.
The next quarter of the draw is for the chance of (probably) playing Roddick in the quarterfinals, and I have to think that Roddick is thrilled to see Djokovic there. Except for an ugly match here in 2008, Roddick has pretty much dominated Djokovic in these conditions - that is, hot hardcourt quarterfinals. Of course, it's no guarantee that Djoker will get that far, because he has a tough section. After an opening match against compatriot Viktor Troicki, things get a bit easier for the Serb in the second round. But the third round might get tougher - James Blake is hoping to get back on his feet after a disappointing year, and he loves this tournament. I think Blake can get that far, but he would have to find some of the old magic to even come closer to beating Djokovic. The real danger comes from the other two seeds in the draw, a pair of great guys who are both experiencing career renaissances - Fish and Baghdatis. They started off the year playing great matches back to back in Sydney and Brisbane, and I would be shocked if they don't meet again in the third round. The other players in that little part of the draw who could make noise might be Ginepri and Clement, but I don't think so. Djokovic will get the winner of that match, and either way there could be an upset in the cards.
Moving on to Soderling's section of the draw - and it really is the Swede's section, since he doesn't have a lot of competition. Really, this is probably the weakest quarter of the draw. So Soderling could get Marin Cilic, who has been underperforming ever since making the Aussie Open semis, and Fernando Gonzalez, who is just back from an injury layoff and has only played one match since the French Open, or Albert Montanes, who has had 82% of his career match wins on clay. There are some floaters in this section, but nobody has proven themselves yet - somebody would have to go on a groundbreaking run. Taylor Dent is here, but his comeback has not quite been going to plan, and he got smoked by the Swede earlier this year at Roland Garros. Thiemo De Bakker is an interesting player to keep an eye on, but this isn't his favorite surface, yet. There are three young guns who I think have a very good chance of getting a couple wins - Carsten Ball, Milos Raonic (who play each other in the first round), and Kei Nishikori. The young Japanese player actually has a shot at upsetting Cilic, if he plays as well as he's capable. In any case, it won't matter, because Soderling's going to make the quarterfinals...
... where he's going to find Roger Federer. The final section of the draw is going to be a walk through the park for Fed, at least through to the quarters. This is despite having to potentially get through a pair of former world number ones. Fed's first two rounds are barely worth mentioning, and if he loses a set to either Dabul, Beck, or Berrer, then we'll really have to worry. After that, he could get Lleyton Hewitt, who may have beaten him recently in Halle, but that was something of a fluke - a weird letdown from the Fed, which we won't see here in the U.S. Open. And after that, he might get JC Ferrero, who (can you believe this?) is the only person in the draw who has a win against Federer at the U.S. Open. The other players who have done so are Andre Agassi, Max Mirnyi, and Juan Martin Del Potro. But Ferrero is not at his best on hardcourts anymore, and if he even makes it to Federer, he'll get smoked. Fed's through to a quarterfinal match-up with Soderling, which will at least be interesting. The other players to watch in this section are Jurgen Melzer and his first round opponent, Dmitry Tursunov, as well as Lithuanian teen and former junior champ Ricardas Berankis. But let's not kid ourselves, this section is all about Federer...
As for tomorrow's matches, it will be good to see what kind of form Federer and Roddick are in, but don't expect many upsets. Hewitt has a potentially tough match against PH Mathieu, but I still like Rusty in that one. Taylor Dent will be thrilled to be back on the grandstand, the site of one of his career's best wins last year against Ivan Navarro. Berankis plays Ryan Sweeting, and that could be an interesting match, and so could Melzer-Tursunov. Dmitry is an hilarious guy, and I hope to see him back in the tennis conversation, as he's been out for a while with injury. Look at Monfils-Kendrick, as well, and two young guns facing off on Court 13, Nishikori against Korolev.
There's lots of great tennis set to take place over the next fourteen days, and I am absolutely salivating at the prospect of it.
US Open Women's Draw Preview
The draw is out, the qualifiers have been placed, and everything is set for the tournament proper to begin. Let's take a look at how the draw shook out, shall we?
The first quarter belongs to surprising top seed Caroline Wozniacki, but it will be interesting to see how she fares under the pressure. She reached the final here last year, but hasn't it made it past a grand slam quarterfinal since then. And with Serena Williams' withdrawal, she become the top seed. And she won last week's tournament in New Haven, but had to play some tough matches to do it. Honestly, put together all of those factors with the issue of having a legitimately tough draw, and I don't know how far Sunshine is going to get this fortnight. Her first round is easy enough, against a 20-year old American wildcard, but after that, things get tougher. She could face Carla Suarez Navarro in the second round, and she'll likely get Maria Sharapova in the fourth round. Even if she gets past all that, her quarterfinal opponent is probably going to be either Na Li or Svetlana Kuznetsova. Sveta and Sharapova are the two toughest floaters in the draw, and for them to be in this quarter makes it tricky for Caroline. I honestly see either Sharapova or Kuznetsova getting out of this section, and I give the winner here a very good chance of winning the tournament. Beyond the players I mentioned, you have to watch out for Kimiko Date Krumm (Kuznetsova's first round opponent), Chakvetadze, who made the semifinals here in 2007. Also, Maria Kirilenko has the potential to make some noise, and would be more of a force if she wasn't in such a loaded section of the draw.
The second quarter of the draw has Jelena Jankovic as the top seeded player, and probably the favorite to make it out of this section. Her top competition is Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva, but the Russian has not been showing the best form beyond that one good run. And she has a tough second round against either Lisicki or Coco Vandeweghe. Other than Vera, the other contenders are in that section of the draw, like Aggie Radwanska and Nadia Petrova. I give Yanina Wickmayer an outside shot, but she has some tough competition. This section also has Patty Schnyder, who may be in the twilight of her career, but she still has six grand slam quarterfinals and one semifinal appearance under her belt. Also, keep an eye on the US contingent in this section. In addition to Vandeweghe, you'll find Jamie Hampton, Shelby Rogers, and Bethanie Mattek-Sands. These players often are quiet in other tournaments, but the excitement of the U.S. Open inspires them, and they can pull off victories that are usually beyond their capabilities.
The third quarter has Venus Williams as its top seed, but it has some other tough seeds that she would have to get through, and she hasn't been able to play much lately. Francesca Schiavone may have peaked with her win at the French Open this year, so I don't know how far she'll be able to make it. Victoria Azarenka may be the actual favorite to make it out of this section, actually. The other Italian Flavia Pennetta is here as well, not to mention Israeli Shahar Peer and Indian Sania Mirza. There are two notable young players here as well - Michelle Larcher De Brito, who will make a lot of noise even if she loses in her first round (she's a grunter), and Melanie Oudin, who will probably not be able to live up to her dream run from last year. She has a pretty good first round, but she'll get Alona Bondarenko in the second round, and that's a step up for Melanie. She's had trouble dealing with the expectations all year, and things are only going to be worse here. I expect that the quarterfinal will be Azarenka-Williams, and that should be a good match.
The last quarter is also pretty stacked, with defending champion (and owner of a 14-match winning streak) Kim Clijsters as the second seed. She has - I have to say - a pretty soft draw to get through to the round of 16, where she'll probably face either Marion Bartoli or Ana Ivanovic. Honestly, the opposite eighth of the draw is the one with so many of the tough players. Dementieva, Stosur, Safina, and Kleybonova - that's a tough set of players to be in such a tight space. I see Dementieva beating Safina in the 3rd round, Stosur beating Dementieva in the 4th, and Clijsters beating Stosur in the quarterfinals. It will be interesting to see who gets Kimmy at that stage, but I think she's the surefire favorite to make it through to the semis
For tomorrow's schedule, we get to see if Oudin can open the day on Arthur Ashe stadium, and what sort of form Venus is in. Dinara Safina gets Daniela Hantuchova, but if the former world number one is actually healthy, she can win that match. Although a lot of her collapse was mental last year at this time, it also had a lot to do with injury, which only becomes clear as you look at her retirements in retrospect. Ivanovic plays Makarova, and you can bet that people will be rooting for her almost as much as they'll be rooting for Oudin. Keep an eye on Sania Mirza against Larcher De Brito on court seven, since you'll be able to hear it all around the grounds.
I'll work on my men's draw preview after this - I should get it done just in time for play to start!
The first quarter belongs to surprising top seed Caroline Wozniacki, but it will be interesting to see how she fares under the pressure. She reached the final here last year, but hasn't it made it past a grand slam quarterfinal since then. And with Serena Williams' withdrawal, she become the top seed. And she won last week's tournament in New Haven, but had to play some tough matches to do it. Honestly, put together all of those factors with the issue of having a legitimately tough draw, and I don't know how far Sunshine is going to get this fortnight. Her first round is easy enough, against a 20-year old American wildcard, but after that, things get tougher. She could face Carla Suarez Navarro in the second round, and she'll likely get Maria Sharapova in the fourth round. Even if she gets past all that, her quarterfinal opponent is probably going to be either Na Li or Svetlana Kuznetsova. Sveta and Sharapova are the two toughest floaters in the draw, and for them to be in this quarter makes it tricky for Caroline. I honestly see either Sharapova or Kuznetsova getting out of this section, and I give the winner here a very good chance of winning the tournament. Beyond the players I mentioned, you have to watch out for Kimiko Date Krumm (Kuznetsova's first round opponent), Chakvetadze, who made the semifinals here in 2007. Also, Maria Kirilenko has the potential to make some noise, and would be more of a force if she wasn't in such a loaded section of the draw.
The second quarter of the draw has Jelena Jankovic as the top seeded player, and probably the favorite to make it out of this section. Her top competition is Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva, but the Russian has not been showing the best form beyond that one good run. And she has a tough second round against either Lisicki or Coco Vandeweghe. Other than Vera, the other contenders are in that section of the draw, like Aggie Radwanska and Nadia Petrova. I give Yanina Wickmayer an outside shot, but she has some tough competition. This section also has Patty Schnyder, who may be in the twilight of her career, but she still has six grand slam quarterfinals and one semifinal appearance under her belt. Also, keep an eye on the US contingent in this section. In addition to Vandeweghe, you'll find Jamie Hampton, Shelby Rogers, and Bethanie Mattek-Sands. These players often are quiet in other tournaments, but the excitement of the U.S. Open inspires them, and they can pull off victories that are usually beyond their capabilities.
The third quarter has Venus Williams as its top seed, but it has some other tough seeds that she would have to get through, and she hasn't been able to play much lately. Francesca Schiavone may have peaked with her win at the French Open this year, so I don't know how far she'll be able to make it. Victoria Azarenka may be the actual favorite to make it out of this section, actually. The other Italian Flavia Pennetta is here as well, not to mention Israeli Shahar Peer and Indian Sania Mirza. There are two notable young players here as well - Michelle Larcher De Brito, who will make a lot of noise even if she loses in her first round (she's a grunter), and Melanie Oudin, who will probably not be able to live up to her dream run from last year. She has a pretty good first round, but she'll get Alona Bondarenko in the second round, and that's a step up for Melanie. She's had trouble dealing with the expectations all year, and things are only going to be worse here. I expect that the quarterfinal will be Azarenka-Williams, and that should be a good match.
The last quarter is also pretty stacked, with defending champion (and owner of a 14-match winning streak) Kim Clijsters as the second seed. She has - I have to say - a pretty soft draw to get through to the round of 16, where she'll probably face either Marion Bartoli or Ana Ivanovic. Honestly, the opposite eighth of the draw is the one with so many of the tough players. Dementieva, Stosur, Safina, and Kleybonova - that's a tough set of players to be in such a tight space. I see Dementieva beating Safina in the 3rd round, Stosur beating Dementieva in the 4th, and Clijsters beating Stosur in the quarterfinals. It will be interesting to see who gets Kimmy at that stage, but I think she's the surefire favorite to make it through to the semis
For tomorrow's schedule, we get to see if Oudin can open the day on Arthur Ashe stadium, and what sort of form Venus is in. Dinara Safina gets Daniela Hantuchova, but if the former world number one is actually healthy, she can win that match. Although a lot of her collapse was mental last year at this time, it also had a lot to do with injury, which only becomes clear as you look at her retirements in retrospect. Ivanovic plays Makarova, and you can bet that people will be rooting for her almost as much as they'll be rooting for Oudin. Keep an eye on Sania Mirza against Larcher De Brito on court seven, since you'll be able to hear it all around the grounds.
I'll work on my men's draw preview after this - I should get it done just in time for play to start!
Sunday, August 29, 2010
New Haven and US Open qualifying wrap-up
First of all, looking back at the week's tournament in New Haven, I have to say ... it's a pretty disappointing week for a tournament that's in danger of losing its title sponsor. The women's tournament was, uncharacteristically, much more interesting than the men's. Only one of the top eight seeds even made the quarterfinals on the men's side, and Baghdatis fell to Sergiy Stakhovsky, who - to his credit - went on to win the tournament.
Stakhovsky is an odd player. He's won two titles this year, but aside from those two title runs, he's never won more than two matches at one tournament. He's lost in his first match at ten tournaments this year. He's definitely hot and cold. The other players who made deep runs at this tournament are all solid pros, but none of them have any recognition in the U.S. I can assure you that the tournament organizers were not hoping for a Stakhovsky-Istomin final, though it was good tennis.
The women's side had more identifiable players in the last rounds - and Caroline Wozniacki ended up taking the title for a third year in a row, just before she heads to New York as the top seed. She played six sets in the final and semis against two tough Russians, and she may run out of steam at the U.S. Open. She does like to play a lot of matches, but combine the stress of her being the top seed with trying to live up to her final run from last year, and that may be enough to cause the great Dane to waver.
The U.S. Open draws are now out, qualifying is complete and those players have been placed in the draw. I'll look at the men's and women's draws tomorrow, but I'll do a quick analysis of how the quallies went, since I find them more interesting than most, I think.
First of all - I am thriled that Jack Sock, the 17-year old American from the Midwest, was given a wildcard into the main draw. But I really think that may have been better spent being given to Nicolas Mahut - the Frenchman fell in the third round of qualifying against a veteran Brazilian player. Honestly, Mahut would have gotten the tournament a lot more attention, even if he had lost his first match, than another American teen. Sock has the potential to be a great player in the future, but he's probably not going to win a round here. This is a dropped ball by the USTA, as far as I'm concerned.
Also, Ryan Harrison is another American teen who has won a handful of ATP-level matches already. He doesn't have a stellar record, but he's 4-9, which isn't too shabby for an 18-year old. But he didn't get a wildcard, either, and he fought his way through three rounds of qualifying. This may not be his time, but Harrison will be an American star in the next four or five years. I could easily see him making top 50, maybe even top 20. He's a dynamic character, too - reports I've read say that his third match was the most exciting of the qualifying tournament. He gave his shirt to a fan at the end of it. Keep an eye on Harrison.
A couple more players to keep eyes on - Lithuanian player Ricardas Berankis, who just turned 20, made it through qualifying as well. He won the U.S. Open juniors in 2007, so he knows the grounds here. The 2006 Junior champ, Dusan Lojda, also made it through qualifying. A couple more young guns who made it through are Japanese player Kei Nishikori and Canadian Milos Raonic, who I've been a fan of ever since I saw him lose a tight match to Fernando Gonzalez at the Canadian masters event a couple years ago.
There are also some more veteran players who came through qualifying, like Croatian Ivan Dodig, Frenchman Marc Gicquel, American Robbie Kendrick, and South African Rik de Voest. These guys could easily put together a good couple of matches here, and the players who come through qualifying have the advantage of having more familiarity with the court conditions than their early-round opponents, and they usually manage to stage an upset or two.
On the women's side, I'll admit that I'm less familiar with more of the players who made it through quallies, but it's good to see Sania Mirza and Michelle Larcher de Brito get through - they're both fun players. Larcher de Brito in particular is a polarizing figure, one of the loudest grunters you'll ever see on the court.
There are some young players who made it through on the women's side, as well. American Irini Falconi, Canadian Rebecca Marino (there actually were a ton of Canadians getting through quallies), and Aussie Sally Peers. All of them were born in 1990. We're getting to the point where the up-and-coming tennis players were born in the 90's, as the results of this year's qualifying tournaments indicates.
Tomorrow - more in-depth looks at the main draws.
Stakhovsky is an odd player. He's won two titles this year, but aside from those two title runs, he's never won more than two matches at one tournament. He's lost in his first match at ten tournaments this year. He's definitely hot and cold. The other players who made deep runs at this tournament are all solid pros, but none of them have any recognition in the U.S. I can assure you that the tournament organizers were not hoping for a Stakhovsky-Istomin final, though it was good tennis.
The women's side had more identifiable players in the last rounds - and Caroline Wozniacki ended up taking the title for a third year in a row, just before she heads to New York as the top seed. She played six sets in the final and semis against two tough Russians, and she may run out of steam at the U.S. Open. She does like to play a lot of matches, but combine the stress of her being the top seed with trying to live up to her final run from last year, and that may be enough to cause the great Dane to waver.
The U.S. Open draws are now out, qualifying is complete and those players have been placed in the draw. I'll look at the men's and women's draws tomorrow, but I'll do a quick analysis of how the quallies went, since I find them more interesting than most, I think.
First of all - I am thriled that Jack Sock, the 17-year old American from the Midwest, was given a wildcard into the main draw. But I really think that may have been better spent being given to Nicolas Mahut - the Frenchman fell in the third round of qualifying against a veteran Brazilian player. Honestly, Mahut would have gotten the tournament a lot more attention, even if he had lost his first match, than another American teen. Sock has the potential to be a great player in the future, but he's probably not going to win a round here. This is a dropped ball by the USTA, as far as I'm concerned.
Also, Ryan Harrison is another American teen who has won a handful of ATP-level matches already. He doesn't have a stellar record, but he's 4-9, which isn't too shabby for an 18-year old. But he didn't get a wildcard, either, and he fought his way through three rounds of qualifying. This may not be his time, but Harrison will be an American star in the next four or five years. I could easily see him making top 50, maybe even top 20. He's a dynamic character, too - reports I've read say that his third match was the most exciting of the qualifying tournament. He gave his shirt to a fan at the end of it. Keep an eye on Harrison.
A couple more players to keep eyes on - Lithuanian player Ricardas Berankis, who just turned 20, made it through qualifying as well. He won the U.S. Open juniors in 2007, so he knows the grounds here. The 2006 Junior champ, Dusan Lojda, also made it through qualifying. A couple more young guns who made it through are Japanese player Kei Nishikori and Canadian Milos Raonic, who I've been a fan of ever since I saw him lose a tight match to Fernando Gonzalez at the Canadian masters event a couple years ago.
There are also some more veteran players who came through qualifying, like Croatian Ivan Dodig, Frenchman Marc Gicquel, American Robbie Kendrick, and South African Rik de Voest. These guys could easily put together a good couple of matches here, and the players who come through qualifying have the advantage of having more familiarity with the court conditions than their early-round opponents, and they usually manage to stage an upset or two.
On the women's side, I'll admit that I'm less familiar with more of the players who made it through quallies, but it's good to see Sania Mirza and Michelle Larcher de Brito get through - they're both fun players. Larcher de Brito in particular is a polarizing figure, one of the loudest grunters you'll ever see on the court.
There are some young players who made it through on the women's side, as well. American Irini Falconi, Canadian Rebecca Marino (there actually were a ton of Canadians getting through quallies), and Aussie Sally Peers. All of them were born in 1990. We're getting to the point where the up-and-coming tennis players were born in the 90's, as the results of this year's qualifying tournaments indicates.
Tomorrow - more in-depth looks at the main draws.
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